October 11th 2011 Poli 340
October 11th 2011 Poli 340 Tunisia and Egypt: From stable authoritarianism to regime collapse: – Basic data – State formation – Regime dynamics – The protests – What next? Basic data: – Economic data for regime – Tunisia higher level of economic development – Why Tunisia had good performance for non-economic state? Modern state formation: – Tunisia and egpyt both part of ottoman empire ○ Tunisia came under French colonial administration ○ 1940s and 50s (mounting protests in favour of independence ○ neo-destour – urban middle class movement, leads struggle ○ gains independence in 1956 nominally as monarch but king never ruled ( was put under house arrest) and ultimately eased from power setting in place republican destour ○ was considered not a part of France Egypt ○ since time of Mohamed ali fought against ottoman empire ○ defensive modernization that we talked about under mohammed ali led to external indebtness ○ English and French exerted more control and demanded the right to control – this increasing control led to a revolt in 1882 which led to British military intervention ○ After this Egypt was governed as a British colony British faced opposition after world war 1 Granted Egypt independence in 1922 (not really independence) They continued to stay there and exert influence WWII did whatever they wanted to Post colonial Tunisia – state played key role – liberal personal status laws – quite secular (didn’t like Islamic parties) ○ regime policy Sunday national day of rest (not Friday) had orange juice during Ramadan ○ no democratic process destour dominated ○ similar in France prowestern foreign policy ○ significant levels of social and economic development – Successful non-Arab state
○ Bourguiba
Egypt; – king Faroug ○ overthrown by nationalist free officers in 1952 citing corruption foreign influence and social inequality – gamal abd al Nasser emerges as eventual Egyptian president (leads 1952 coup and becomes president) ○ ban on political parties ○ land reform (3 ways of redistribution of land) ○ Nationalization of Suez Canal (non-alignment policy) Led USA/UK took away money for build of Aswan Dam Britain, USA and Israel Israel go to war with Egypt ○ Suez war (1956) Egyptians didn’t withdraw and so everyone invaded Egypt and captured USSR threatened USA Canada UN FORCE Egypt thought it was a victory (politically) Made him a regional voice for pan-arabism ○ Growing pan Arabism ○ UAR (1958- 62) Syria Egypt became one country Directly from the suez war After this collapse, decided it was because economic levels and Egypt had to creat nationalist development (major role for state) e ○ Arab socialism Socialist economy Nasser formed series of state single party systems Mobilize masses in support of regime policy ○ Formation of Arab socialist union ○ 1967 Arab-Israeli war Six day war Israel defeated everyone ○ Death in 1970 – Limits of Arab nationalism (VP) Anwar Sadat: – Moved away from USSR relationship – 1973 – another Arab Israeli war (Syria and Egypt against Egypt) ○ Great deception ○ Syrians lost more territory (not an Arab win) ○ In Egpyt it was seen as a success ○ Break up of ASU (1974-76) emergency of limited multiparty system with dominant national democratic party ○ Flirtation with islamists (to counterbalance the left) ○ Clamp down ○ Assassination – Dramatic shift in Egyptian foreign policy – Domestic/economic/political policy ○ Single party broken up and multi party system emerged ○ Middle party won all elections
– –
Significant reconfiguration of the on3e party system under Nasser Sadat flirted with
Ben Ali: – New president of Tunisia – Offered modest political reforms (RCD of destour) – This didn’t last long as RCD continued old monopoly over power and Islamism movement was suppressed by the regime – Civil war in Algeria – Restricitions were placed with Tunisian NGOS ○ But because of this it was allowed to exist as a national labour syndicate – Keeps extending terms and won multiple elections – Pursues economic reform, for private sector and Tunisia has good economic performance in context of middle east but liberalization in Tunisia was called chrony capitalism ○ Those who were associated with the regime who enjoyed benefits of economic reform ○ If privatizationwas occurring, regulations changed – Tunisia in-laws benefit from economic reforms – Although they had growth – wasn’t evenly distributed ○ Economic inequality didn’t increase, but the way people see inequality focused on corruption due to wealth of president Egypt: – Mubarak multiparty- ism – Access to media through patronage and hassrasment through muslim brotherhood – Electoral fraud when necessary – Militant jihadist groups/non-violent Muslim brotherhood/limited press and civil society – Slow but continuing economic reform ○ Gulf war and debt forgiveness ○ Improved economic growth from mid-1990s ○ Youth unemployment high Mubarak regime: – post 9/11 pressure for political reform – competitive presidential elections – parliamentary elections ○ muslim brotherhood wins most of the seats its contests ○ regimes intensifies – international community voices little discontent – parliamentary electionse – mubarak groomed for succession ○ gamal Mubarak Mubarak’s son ○ contributed to Arab spring more of the same ○ not really much change (impending issue of succession highlighted immobilzaiton of system) Tunisia’s Revolution: – Vegetable seller hassarased by police sets himself on fire – Protests reach capital and are joined by activists (professionals and lawyers)
– – – –
Trade union movement also joins them Key military commanders refuse to support a clamp down Ben Ali flees (January 14) ○ No one was going to rescue him from this situation and leaves – exile in Saudi Arabia Government formed – then reformed without RCD ○ RCD dissolved in March by court order
Egypt : – varied opposition – political parties – kefaya movement: broad based opposition movement – periodic labour unrest – more informal organizations – young activists and opposition groups organize protest in Tahrir square on national policy day (jan 25th) – Facebook page opened in his name and indicative of new communications (technology) expressing discontent from regime – none of these seem strong enough to challenge a regime that had been in power since 52 – protests escalates and occupies tahrir square. Protests start to occur elsewhere in other major areas – police driven military is called in to provide order – military seen by protestors are more neutral force – regime thugs – Mubarak not going to resign (speech – really bad speech) ○ Made situation worse than better ○ Causes mobilization to grow even more – SCAF announces Mubarak’s resignation Feb 11th – Mubarak errested and his sons Tunisia: – What next? ○ Elections to be held on October 23rd for 218 members of a national constituent assembly This will write a new constitution ○ NCA will draft new constitution within a year ○ New elections to be held subsequently in accordance with new constitutions ○ Seats allocated based on how well you do ○ Zipper quota female (50 %) – 10,000 candidates from 100 political parties – not clear who is popular issues: – raised expectations and slow change – confusion – lack of knowledge regarding parties and platforms – secularists vs. Islamists ○ polarizing issue
Egypt: – constitutional referendum in march 2011 saw widespread 77% support for limited constitional changes ○ term limits, judicial oversight, easier nomination of candidates – mix of party list and independence – allowing independence to run (boycott elections) – change rules to make it possible for party candidates – not clear if this would bring NDP people but suspicion between parties and SCAF – muslim brotherhood is most organized opposition ○ they want elections to be further in the future ○ sooner elctions are ○ well-established machinery ○ delaying because it doesn’t want to do well – never very clear about how or why it does things only adds to the confusion – gender quotas are eliminated
○ Bourguiba
Egypt; – king Faroug ○ overthrown by nationalist free officers in 1952 citing corruption foreign influence and social inequality – gamal abd al Nasser emerges as eventual Egyptian president (leads 1952 coup and becomes president) ○ ban on political parties ○ land reform (3 ways of redistribution of land) ○ Nationalization of Suez Canal (non-alignment policy) Led USA/UK took away money for build of Aswan Dam Britain, USA and Israel Israel go to war with Egypt ○ Suez war (1956) Egyptians didn’t withdraw and so everyone invaded Egypt and captured USSR threatened USA Canada UN FORCE Egypt thought it was a victory (politically) Made him a regional voice for pan-arabism ○ Growing pan Arabism ○ UAR (1958- 62) Syria Egypt became one country Directly from the suez war After this collapse, decided it was because economic levels and Egypt had to creat nationalist development (major role for state) e ○ Arab socialism Socialist economy Nasser formed series of state single party systems Mobilize masses in support of regime policy ○ Formation of Arab socialist union ○ 1967 Arab-Israeli war Six day war Israel defeated everyone ○ Death in 1970 – Limits of Arab nationalism (VP) Anwar Sadat: – Moved away from USSR relationship – 1973 – another Arab Israeli war (Syria and Egypt against Egypt) ○ Great deception ○ Syrians lost more territory (not an Arab win) ○ In Egpyt it was seen as a success ○ Break up of ASU (1974-76) emergency of limited multiparty system with dominant national democratic party ○ Flirtation with islamists (to counterbalance the left) ○ Clamp down ○ Assassination – Dramatic shift in Egyptian foreign policy – Domestic/economic/political policy ○ Single party broken up and multi party system emerged ○ Middle party won all elections
– –
Significant reconfiguration of the on3e party system under Nasser Sadat flirted with
Ben Ali: – New president of Tunisia – Offered modest political reforms (RCD of destour) – This didn’t last long as RCD continued old monopoly over power and Islamism movement was suppressed by the regime – Civil war in Algeria – Restricitions were placed with Tunisian NGOS ○ But because of this it was allowed to exist as a national labour syndicate – Keeps extending terms and won multiple elections – Pursues economic reform, for private sector and Tunisia has good economic performance in context of middle east but liberalization in Tunisia was called chrony capitalism ○ Those who were associated with the regime who enjoyed benefits of economic reform ○ If privatizationwas occurring, regulations changed – Tunisia in-laws benefit from economic reforms – Although they had growth – wasn’t evenly distributed ○ Economic inequality didn’t increase, but the way people see inequality focused on corruption due to wealth of president Egypt: – Mubarak multiparty- ism – Access to media through patronage and hassrasment through muslim brotherhood – Electoral fraud when necessary – Militant jihadist groups/non-violent Muslim brotherhood/limited press and civil society – Slow but continuing economic reform ○ Gulf war and debt forgiveness ○ Improved economic growth from mid-1990s ○ Youth unemployment high Mubarak regime: – post 9/11 pressure for political reform – competitive presidential elections – parliamentary elections ○ muslim brotherhood wins most of the seats its contests ○ regimes intensifies – international community voices little discontent – parliamentary electionse – mubarak groomed for succession ○ gamal Mubarak Mubarak’s son ○ contributed to Arab spring more of the same ○ not really much change (impending issue of succession highlighted immobilzaiton of system) Tunisia’s Revolution: – Vegetable seller hassarased by police sets himself on fire – Protests reach capital and are joined by activists (professionals and lawyers)
– – – –
Trade union movement also joins them Key military commanders refuse to support a clamp down Ben Ali flees (January 14) ○ No one was going to rescue him from this situation and leaves – exile in Saudi Arabia Government formed – then reformed without RCD ○ RCD dissolved in March by court order
Egypt : – varied opposition – political parties – kefaya movement: broad based opposition movement – periodic labour unrest – more informal organizations – young activists and opposition groups organize protest in Tahrir square on national policy day (jan 25th) – Facebook page opened in his name and indicative of new communications (technology) expressing discontent from regime – none of these seem strong enough to challenge a regime that had been in power since 52 – protests escalates and occupies tahrir square. Protests start to occur elsewhere in other major areas – police driven military is called in to provide order – military seen by protestors are more neutral force – regime thugs – Mubarak not going to resign (speech – really bad speech) ○ Made situation worse than better ○ Causes mobilization to grow even more – SCAF announces Mubarak’s resignation Feb 11th – Mubarak errested and his sons Tunisia: – What next? ○ Elections to be held on October 23rd for 218 members of a national constituent assembly This will write a new constitution ○ NCA will draft new constitution within a year ○ New elections to be held subsequently in accordance with new constitutions ○ Seats allocated based on how well you do ○ Zipper quota female (50 %) – 10,000 candidates from 100 political parties – not clear who is popular issues: – raised expectations and slow change – confusion – lack of knowledge regarding parties and platforms – secularists vs. Islamists ○ polarizing issue
Egypt: – constitutional referendum in march 2011 saw widespread 77% support for limited constitional changes ○ term limits, judicial oversight, easier nomination of candidates – mix of party list and independence – allowing independence to run (boycott elections) – change rules to make it possible for party candidates – not clear if this would bring NDP people but suspicion between parties and SCAF – muslim brotherhood is most organized opposition ○ they want elections to be further in the future ○ sooner elctions are ○ well-established machinery ○ delaying because it doesn’t want to do well – never very clear about how or why it does things only adds to the confusion – gender quotas are eliminated
