Operating Income

Report 1 Downloads 166 Views
A Strong Year of Continued Growth and Profit Kaupthing Bank’s – Q4 2006 Results Hreidar Már Sigurdsson, CEO

January 2007

Solid Performance in 2006 ‹ Solid performance in 2006: ― Net earnings EUR 986 million – up by 44.4% from last year ― Return on equity was 42.4% in 2006 ― Earnings per share ISK 127.1 – up by 69.0% ― Total assets were EUR 42,864 million – increase by 26.0% last year ― Strong capital ratios – or CAD ratio 15.0% and Tier 1 ratio 10.5% ‹ A strong fourth quarter: ― Net earnings of EUR 210 million ― Strong growth in net interest and net commission income ― Net interest income up by 29.7% year-on-year ― Net commission income EUR 133 million - up by 60.2% year-on-year

-3-

Summary of Operation in 2006 EURm 2006

2005

Chg

Net interest income

595

438

36%

Net commission income

426

300

42%

Net financial income

687

499

38%

Other income

194

131

49%

1,902

1,368

39%

Salaries and related cost

-383

-272

41%

Other administrative cost

-300

-204

47%

-68

-59

16%

1,151

834

38%

-165

-150

10%

Net earnings

986

683

44%

Shareholders of Kaupthing Bank

972

659

47%

14

24

-42%

Operating income

Impairment Profit before income tax Income tax

Minority interest

-4-

Summary of Operation in Q4 EURm Q4 2006

Q4 2005

Chg

Net interest income

166

128

30%

Net commission income

133

83

61%

Net financial income

135

187

-28%

25

40

-37%

460

437

5%

Salaries and related cost

-119

-92

30%

Other administrative cost

-93

-61

53%

Impairment

-18

-24

-23%

Profit before income tax

230

261

-12%

Income tax

-20

-54

-63%

Net earnings

210

207

1%

Shareholders of Kaupthing Bank

203

198

3%

6

9

-30%

Other income Operating income

Minority interest

-5-

Q4 2006 Compared to Q3 2006 EURm Q4 2006

Q3 2006

Chg

Net interest income

166

139

20%

Net commission income

133

84

60%

Net financial income

135

408

-67%

25

24

4%

460

655

-30%

Salaries and related cost

-119

-80

48%

Other administrative cost

-93

-71

31%

Impairment

-18

-31

-40%

Profit before income tax

230

473

-51%

Income tax

-20

-84

-76%

Net earnings

210

389

-46%

Shareholders of Kaupthing Bank

203

388

-48%

6

2

314%

Other income Operating income

Minority interest

-6-

Equity – 2006 Compared to 2005 EURm Changes in equity 2006: Equity 1 January 2006 Translation difference

Changes in equity in 2005: 2.600 -445

Equity 1 January 2005 Translation difference

Fair value changes in AFS financial assets

0

Fair value changes in AFS financial assets

Deferred pension reserve

5

Deferred pension reserve

Net earnings recognised directly in equity

-440

2.000 -5 0 -6

Net earnings recognised directly in equity

-12

Net earnings according to the Income Statement

972

Net earnings according to the Income Statement

659

Total recognised earnings for the year

532

Total recognised earnings for the year

648

Dividends paid to equity holders, ISK 10 per share

-44

Dividends paid to equity holders, ISK 37.6 per share

-282

Issued new capital

632

Issued new capital

Other changes

-62

Other changes

Equity 31 December 2006

3.419

Equity 31 December 2005

6 -9 2.600

-7-

Earnings per Share

Exista

EPS (ISK)

39.2

28.3 17.0

13.5 6.9

8.0

Q1

Q2

22.4

20.9

26.1 19.6

14.8

14.2

7.3 Q3

2004

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

2005

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

2006

-8-

Income Distribution and Operating Income vs Operating Expenses Income Distribution (EURm)

Operating Income vs. Operating Expenses (EURm)

Net interest income

Net commission income

Net financial income

Other income

Operating income

Total other operating expenses

700

650

600

550

500

450 400

350 300

250 200

150 50

100

(50)

0

Q3

Q4

2005

Q1

Q2

Q3

2006

Q4

Q3

Q4

2005

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

2006

-9-

Net Interest Income and Geographic Breakdown Geographic Breakdown(1)

Net Interest Income (EURm)

EUR 596m

166 155

128

127

17 56

139

134

Other

EUR 438m 6 50

138

Lux

103 197

UK

142

Scand 137

188

Iceland Q3

Q4

2005

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

2005

2006

2006 (1) By origin of clients

- 10 -

Net Commission Income and Geographic Breakdown Geographic Breakdown(1)

Net Commission Income (EURm) 133

EUR 424m 20

110

Other

50

99

EUR 300m

92 84

83

7 39 85

119

Lux

UK 68

51

Scand 167

120

Q3

Q4

2005

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

2005

Iceland 2006

2006 (1) By origin of clients

- 11 -

Net Financial Income and Other Income Net Financial Income (EURm)

Other Income (EURm)

450

120

400

300

VIS

100

Exista

350

80

250 200

60

150 40

100 50

20

0 0

(50) Q3

Q4

2005

Q1

Q2

Q3

2006

Q4

Q3

Q4

2005

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

2006

- 12 -

Breakdown of Net Gain on Financial Assets by Location 2006 (EURm) Iceland

Scandinavia

UK

Lux

Other

Total

Net gain from bonds and fixed income securities

-39.0

-16.4

-15.7

-0.2

0.0

-71.3

Net gain from equity and variable income securities

339.9

177.1

66.7

13.9

1.7

599.3

71.4

0.6

16.2

6.7

0.0

94.8

0.0

4.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

4.1

25.9

30.2

0.8

0.6

0.2

57.7

398.2

195.5

68.0

21.0

1.9

684.6

Net gain from derivatives Net gain from hedge accounting instruments Dividend income Total

- 13 -

Geographic Diversification – Operating Income EURm

EUR 1,902m 39 126

EUR 1,358m

% 40

Other countries 373

25

Luxembourg

114 471

EUR 669m 8 71 120

10

3%

456

354 893

184 286 2004

United Kingdom

409

2005

Scandinavia

Iceland 2006

(*) By origin of clients

- 14 -

Geographic Diversification – Operating Income Operating Income 2006

Luxembourg 7%

United Kingdom 20%

Operating Income without Exista Gain 2006

Other countries 2%

Iceland 46%

Other countries 2% Luxembourg 8%

United Kingdom 23%

Iceland 37%

Scandinavia 25% Scandinavia 30%

- 15 -

Operating Income by Division in 2006 Operating Income 2006

Operating Income without Exista Gain 2006

Asset Management & Private Banking 8% Treasury 14% Capital Markets 9%

Investment Banking 31%

Asset Management & Private Banking 10%

Banking 38%

Banking 45%

Treasury 17%

Capital Markets 10% Investment Banking 18%

- 16 -

Banking – Results Comments

EURm

‹ Good quarter for Banking

Q4 2006

Q3 2006

Q2 2006

Q1 2006

Q4 2005

140.2

131.0

121.6

130.0

130.1

18.7

17.1

15.0

14.4

9.5

3.6

0.7

1.8

2.6

1.8

19.2

18.9

21.3

15.5

22.1

181.8

167.7

159.7

162.6

163.5

Expenses

51.7

39.8

37.1

42.1

50.3

Impairment

18.2

18.4

9.1

9.0

3.0

‹ Impairment too high

Total expenses

70.0

58.2

46.1

51.1

53.3

‹ Solid gross profit

Gross profit

111.8

109.5

113.6

111.5

110.2

Allocated cost

33.3

17.2

23.5

25.9

23.3

Pre-tax profit

78.5

92.3

90.0

85.6

86.9

‹ Consistent and healthy growth in

Operating income ‹ Net commission income increase

by 96.8% from Q4 last year ‹ Expenses increased by 29.9%

from last quarter

Net interest income Net commission income Net financial income Other income Operating income

- 17 -

Banking – Gross Profit and Impairment Gross Profit (EURm)

Banking – Impairment

112

112

110

Impairment (EUR m)

20

114

109

Impairment % of Net interest income

18

14% 12%

16 10%

14 12

8%

10

97

6%

8 6

4%

4 2%

2

0%

0

Q3

Q4

2005

Q1

Q2

Q3

2006

Q4

Q4

(1)

2005

Q1

Q2

Q3

(2)

Q4

2006

(1) Extraordinary low impairment in Q4 2005 due to reverse impairment in FIH (2) Extraordinary high impairment in Q3 and Q4 2006 due to impairment in the UK

- 18 -

Banking – Well Diversified Portfolio Loans to Customers by Location

Luxembourg 11%

Loans to Customers by Sectors Transportation 2% Trade 8%

Other countries 4% Iceland 23%

Individuals 17%

Service 20%

United Kingdom 20%

Scandinavia 42%

Holding Companies 14%

Real Estate 15% Industry 24%

- 19 -

Acquisition and Leveraged Finance Portfolio 2006 Sector Concentration Pharmaceuticals 5.7%

2006 Geographical Spread Healthcare 5.5% Leisure 6.5% Property 4.2%

Telecom 6.5%

Technology 1.4% Service 1.3%

Wholesale 7.4%

Multinational 26%

UK 29%

Buildings 1.2%

Food Production 9.6%

Transport 1.0% IT 0.9%

Retail 21.4%

Manufacturing 27.5%

Pan-European 23%

Scandinavia 17% Iceland 5%

2006 Total: EUR 4,844m

2006 Total: EUR 4,844m

- 20 -

Investment Banking – Results Comments

EURm

‹ Good quarter in Investment

Banking ‹ Record net commission income in

Q4 ‹ Net commission income increased

by 200.0% compared to Q3

Q4 2006

Q3 2006

Q2 2006

Q1 2006

Q4 2005

-10.3

-10.5

-6.7

-10.8

-12.1

Net commission income

42.6

14.2

26.7

25.7

17.1

Net financial income

51.6

346.8

27.0

53.9

106.2

0.1

-1.6

-0.9

3.3

-0.7

Operating income

84.1

348.9

46.1

72.2

110.5

Expenses

14.7

6.2

13.0

7.1

7.5

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Net interest income

Other income

‹ Increase in operating cost

Impairment

‹ Strong sign of extended business

Total expenses

14.7

6.2

13.1

7.1

7.5

Gross profit

69.4

342.8

33.0

65.1

103.0

Allocated cost

1.4

2.2

3.7

2.8

2.4

Pre-tax profit

68.0

340.5

29.3

62.2

100.6

capacity in Investment Banking

- 21 -

Investment Banking Gross Profit (EURm)

Largest Unlisted Equity Exposures

343

Company

Country

Sector

Share

Síminn hf.

Iceland

Telecommunications

Somerfield

UK

Retail

Ferskur Holding 1 B.V

Holland

Consumer retail

SPRON Stofnfjárbréf

Iceland

Financial institution

5%

LD Equity I K/S

Denmark

Investment company

23%

27% 6% 26%

Net Commission Income (EURm)

69

65

53

20

26

25

Q4

2005

Q1

Q2

Q3

2006

Q4

Q1

27

17

33

Q3

43

39

103

Q2

Q3

2005

Q4

14

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

2006

- 22 -

Capital Markets Comments

EURm

‹ Strong operating income in Q4 –

up by 81.1% from Q3 ‹ Record high net commission

income up 36.2% from Q3 ‹ Expenses increased by 87.4%

from last quarter ‹ Number of employees increased

by 92% from 2005

Q4 2006

Q3 2006

Q2 2006

Q1 2006

Q4 2005

Net interest income

-6.9

-5.8

0.2

-5.0

-5.8

Net commission income

25.2

18.5

17.2

23.9

20.2

Net financial income

49.5

24.9

-70.3

98.7

66.3

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.5

Operating income

67.9

37.5

-53.0

117.6

81.2

Expenses

28.3

15.1

14.3

12.6

13.7

0.0

0.0

1.3

0.0

0.0

Total expenses

28.3

15.1

15.7

12.6

13.7

Gross profit

39.7

22.5

-68.6

105.0

67.5

Allocated cost

11.5

7.0

9.7

8.1

7.8

Pre-tax profit

28.2

15.4

-78.4

96.9

59.6

Other income

Impairment

- 23 -

Capital Markets – Gross Profit and Largest Holdings Gross Profit (EURm)

Listed Equities by Stock Exchanges 31 December 2006

105

UK 4%

67

Iceland 35%

40

37

Other 6%

22

Scandinavia 55%

-69 Q3

2005

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

2006

- 24 -

Treasury – Results Comments

EURm

‹ Record quarter and year for

Treasury ‹ Net interest income in Q4 59.9%

higher than in 3Q and 77.9% higher than 4Q last year ‹ Strong growth in net financial

income in Q4 – up by 135.5% from same quarter last year ‹ High growth in net commission

income – up 82.4% from 3Q ‹ Gross profit 108.5% higher than

4Q last year

Q4 2006

Q3 2006

Q2 2006

Q1 2006

Q4 2005

41.1

25.7

41.7

20.8

23.1

9.3

5.1

8.5

10.8

4.5

31.8

33.7

12.0

17.9

13.5

0.3

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Operating income

82.4

64.4

62.2

49.5

41.2

Expenses

11.1

8.8

8.0

7.1

7.4

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.1

-0.4

Total expenses

11.1

8.8

8.0

7.1

6.9

Gross profit

71.3

55.7

54.2

42.3

34.2

Allocated cost

7.6

4.2

5.3

5.9

3.5

Pre-tax profit

63.8

51.4

48.9

36.5

30.7

Net interest income Net commission income Net financial income Other income

Impairment

- 25 -

Treasury – Gross Profit and Net Commission Income Gross Profit (EURm)

Net Commission Income (EURm) 11

71

9 9

56

54

42 34

5

5

5 5

4

22

Q3

Q4

2005

Q1

Q2

Q3

2006

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

2005

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

2006

- 26 -

Asset Management & Private Banking – Results Comments

EURm

‹ Record quarter for Asset

Management ‹ Growth in net commission income

strong – 17.9% higher than 4Q last year ‹ Expenses increased by 25.8%

between quarters

Q4 2006

Q3 2006

Q2 2006

Q1 2006

Q4 2005

2.9

1.8

2.5

2.1

3.0

36.2

27.9

30.6

33.5

30.7

Net financial income

1.2

1.0

1.4

2.5

0.9

Other income

6.8

3.9

0.0

0.0

0.0

Operating income

47.1

34.6

34.6

38.0

34.6

Expenses

22.9

18.2

18.8

24.7

19.7

0.0

12.5

0.0

0.0

0.0

Total expenses

22.9

30.7

18.8

24.7

19.7

Gross profit

24.2

4.0

15.8

13.3

14.9

Allocated cost

9.3

8.4

9.4

12.3

11.2

Pre-tax profit

15.0

-4.4

6.3

1.1

3.7

Net interest income Net commission income

Impairment

‹ Gross profit solid

- 27 -

Asset Management & Private Banking Gross Profit (EURm)

Assets Under Management (EURm) 15,711 24 15,247

14,833

16

15 13

14,373

14,327

4 2

Q3

Q4

2005

Q1

Q2

2006

Q3

Q4

Q4

2005

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

2006

- 28 -

Asset Management & Private Banking AuM as of 31 December 2006 – by Country

Sweden 7%

Other 6%

AuM Growth in 2006 (EURm)

14.373

708

14.833

Return

31.12.2006

-248

UK 30%

Finland 13%

Iceland 44%

31.12.2005

New Money

- 29 -

Balance Sheet – Assets 31 December 2006 (EURm) 31/12/2006 1,131 5,130 26,832 3,364 1,679 692 68 1,225 722 2,021 42,864

Cash and cash balances with central banks Loans to credit institutions Loans to customers Bonds and debt instruments Shares and equity instruments Derivatives Derivatives used for hedging Securities used for hedging Intangible assets Other assets Total assets

Total Assets (EURm) 30,921

Q3

2005

31/12/2005 467 2,618 20,665 5,229 1,529 282 60 1,099 736 1,330 34,014

Chg 142% 96% 30% -36% 10% 146% 14% 12% -2% 52% 26%

Loans to Customers (EURm)

34,014

35,787

Q4

Q1

36,478

41,256

42,864 18,179

Q2

Q3

2006

Q4

Q3

2005

21,790

22,814

24,444

26,832

20,665

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

2006

- 30 -

Balance Sheet – Liabilities and Equity 31 December 2006 (EURm)

Deposits Other liabilities Minority interest Subordinated loans Shareholders' equity

31/12/2006 7,934 29,107 120 2,283 3,419

31/12/2005 6,508 23,419 111 1,375 2,600

Chg 22% 24% 8% 66% 32%

42,864

34,014

26%

Total liabilities and equity

Deposits (EURm)

5,791

Q3

2005

Shareholders' Equity (EURm)

6,508

6,389

6,806

Q4

Q1

Q2

7,717

Q3

2006

7,934

Q4

2,322

2,600

2,494

2,451

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

2005

3,016

Q3

3,419

Q4

2006

- 31 -

Credit Reserves Comments

EURm

‹ Total loans amounted to EUR

31,962m at the end of 2006 ‹ Total Credit Reserves are 0.42% of

181 157

total loans and granted guarantees

31-Mar

184 173

168 159

152

30-Jun

2005

30-Sep

31-Dec

31-Mar

151

30-Jun

30-Sep

30-Dec

2006

- 32 -

Asset Quality Loan Loss Reserve (EURm) 173

Q4

159

Q1

Non-performing Loans (EURm) 168

151

Q2

2005

Q3

184

Q4

2006

80%

71%

199

213

Q4

Q1

Q2

2005

Loan Loss Reserve % of Non-performing Loans 86%

202

68%

2005

Q1

Q2

Q3

2006

Q3

270

Q4

2006

Non-performing Loans / Loans to customers

65%

Q4

1.01%

1.00%

Q3

Q4

0.98% 0.91%

Q4

247

Q4

2005

Q1

0.93%

Q2

2006

- 33 -

Bond and Equity Exposure 2006 EURm 31/12/2006

31/12/2005

Change

%

Bonds and debt instruments

3,364

5,229

-1,865

-36%

Shares and equity instruments

1,681

1,531

150

10%

692

282

410

146%

68

60

9

14%

1,225

1,099

126

12%

56

186

-130

-70%

Derivatives Derivatives used for hedging Hedged securities Investment in associates and joint ventures

- 34 -

Equity Exposure Metrics VaR (10d 99%) % of Risk Capital

Equity Exposure as % of Risk Capital

1.5%

55% 47% 1.2% 1.1% 37% 32%

34%

0.8% 0.6%

Q4

2005

Q1

Q2

Q3

2006

Q4

Q4

2005

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

2006

- 35 -

CAD Ratio and Risk Capital CAD Ratio

Risk Capital (EURm) Tier 1

Tier 2

Tier 1

Tier 2

4,877

15.0% 14.1% 12.2%

12.1%

4.1%

11.4% 2.9% 2.8%

4,225 1,480

4.5% 3,368

1,221

3,117

3.5% 2,770

774

963

649

9.4%

8.5%

10.0%

8.7%

10.5%

3,004 2,121

Q4

2005

Q1

Q2

Q3

2006

Q4

Q4

2005

2,343

2,405

Q1

Q2

Q3

3,397

Q4

2006

- 36 -

Successful Implementation of a Global Funding Programme Funding overview 2006

Funding Mix 31 December 2006

‹ Emphasis on diversifying funding sources - Four new

markets entered in 2006: US144A, Japan, Australia and a Covered bond programme in Europe ‹ Enhanced secured liquidity ― The group has secured liquidity of €12,730 m or 427

days, covering current long term funding redemptions for 2007, 2008 and 2009 ― The parent company has secured liquidity of 600

days

US Bond Market 13% Subordinated 6%

EMTN 37%

Customer deposits 22%

― Increased customer deposit base – up 35.4% in real

terms YOY ― FIH finalized a financial co-operation with ATP,

Denmark's largest pension fund ‹ Extended maturity profile by the parent company -

Average maturity of issued debt was 4.2 years in 2006 compared to 3.2 years in 2005

Structured Covered Bonds 1%

Commercial Papers 4% FI Deposits 11%

International loan market 6%

- 37 -

Successful Implementation of a Global Funding Programme Maturity of funding (€m) Kaupthing Bank (Parent)

Maturity of issued long term debt in 2006 vs 2005 (€m) FIH

8,098

3,500

1,967

3,000

4,056 2,791

1,877

2,000

4,042 365

1,583

6,057

500

2,094

810 2008

1,500 1,000

1,981 2,180

2007

Extended maturity profile by the parent company in 2006

2,500

1,407

Issued in 2006

4,000

73

5,366

3,959

Issued in 2005

Singer & Friedlander

0 2009

2010

>2011

0 to 1

1 to 3

3 to 5

>5

Maturity in Years

- 38 -

Successful Implementation of a Global Funding Programme Funding Strategy 2007 – Further Diversification

Kaupthing 5 yr CDS spread

‹ Senior unsecured funding

100

― Due to last years successful diversification efforts,

the bank has access to and can issue unsecured bonds in several different markets in 2007 ― The Bank will continue exploring new markets

‹ Ambitious deposits targets ― Continuing strong deposit growth ― Deposit growth plan put in place in the parent

company and in all subsidiaries ‹ Secured funding ― Further covered bond issuance ― Possible securitization in 2007

90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan

- 39 -

Key Ratios

2006

2005

CAD

15.0%

12.2%

75.2

Tier 1

10.5%

9.4%

36%

34%

Deposits / Loans to customers

29.6%

31.5%

6.6

9.9

Loans to customers / Assets

63%

61%

1.9

2.6

VaR (10d 99% ) % of Risk capital

1.2%

1.5%

Loan-loss ratio

0.19%

0.21%

Total equity exposure / Risk capital

34%

55%

NPL / Loans to customers

1.00%

0.98%

– Thereof unlisted

8%

13%

ROE

1

Earnings per share ISK Cost Income – Group Price / earnings Price / book

1

1

2006

2005

42.4%

34.0%

127.1

(1) Share price 31 December 2006: ISK 841. Share price 31 December 2005: ISK 746

- 40 -

Key ratios Dividend payments (per share) ISK

Return on equity % 42.4%

27.6

34.0%

25.5% 23.0%

14.0 18.7% 10.0

5.0 2.9

3.0

2002

2003

2004

2005

(1)

2006

2006

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

(1) Extra dividend in October 2006

- 41 -

Five Integrated Business Segments in Ten Countries

Employees (31 Dec 06) Iceland

657

Sweden

336

Denmark

288

Finland

100

Luxembourg

154

Norway

64

Faroe Islands

17

Total

Capital Markets

Treasury

Banking

AM & PB

1,094

UK

US

Investment Banking

9 2,719

Note: Light blue boxes indicate new divisions in 2006

- 42 -

Number of Employees

Iceland

Other 2,719 2,568 2,368

1,606 1,282

1,276

352

361

930

915

30-Jun-03

31-Dec-03

1,360

1,707

1,322

1,463

1,625

613

703

979

993

1,004

1,046

1,105

1,094

30-Jun-04

31-Dec-04

30-Jun-05

31-Dec-05

30-Jun-06

31-Dec-06

381

- 43 -

Combination of Organic and Acquisition Growth Operating Income (EURbn) (EURm) Kaupthing

Bunadarbanki

Organic

Acquired

Share of total 2002-2006 growth Organic:

71%

183.5

Acquisitions: 29%

350.4

269.2 1,902

430.3 78.3

1,368

164.9

16.7 120.5

669 425

154 133 2002 Organic (1) Proforma

Acquired

2003

Organic

Acquired

2004

Organic

Acquired

2005

Organic

Acquired

2006

(1) Proforma combination of Búnadarbanki ISK11.5bn and Kaupthing ISK9.9bn

- 44 -

Conclusion ‹ Good diversification of income streams and geography ‹ Strong asset quality – no signs of deterioration ‹ Positive trend in interest income and commissions ‹ Efficient operations and high income per employee ‹ Strong capital base ‹ 2006 was another record year in Kaupthing Bank´s operations

- 45 -

Q&A Kaupthing Bank’s – Q4 2006 Results Hreidar Már Sigurdsson, CEO

January 2007

Disclaimer This material has been prepared for professional investors. Kaupthing Bank hf. (Kaupthing) when preparing this report has not taken into account any one customer’s particular investment objectives, financial resources or other relevant circumstances and the opinions and recommendations herein are not intended to represent recommendations of particular investments to particular customers. All securities' transactions involve risks, which include (among others) the risk of adverse or unanticipated market, financial or political developments and, in international transactions, currency risk. Due care and attention has been used in the preparation of this forecast information. However, actual results may vary from their forecasts, and any variation may be materially positive or negative. Forecasts, by their very nature, are subject to uncertainty and contingencies, many of which are outside the control of Kaupthing Bank. Kaupthing Bank can not guarantee that the information contained herein is without fault or entirely accurate. The information in this material is based on sources that Kaupthing bank believes to be reliable. Kaupthing bank can however not guarantee that all information is correct. Furthermore, information and opinions may change without notice. Kaupthing bank is under no obligation to make amendments or changes to this publication if errors are found or opinions or information change. Kaupthing bank accepts no responsibility for the accuracy of its sources. Kaupthing Bank is the owner of all works of authorship including, but not limited to, all design, text, sound recordings, images and trademarks in this material unless otherwise explicitly stated. The use of Kaupthing's material, works or trademarks is forbidden without written consent except were otherwise expressly stated. Furthermore, it is prohibited to publish material made or gathered by Kaupthing bank without written consent.

- 47 -

- 48 -