Outperform (17E TP Bt425.00) Company Update AWS
PTT
Outperform (17E TP Bt425.00)
Company Update
Close Bt385.00
Energy & Utilities August 18, 2017
Earnings upgrade/ Earnings downgrade / Overview unchanged
Sets strategic plan for long‐term sustainability Price Performance (%)
Source: SET Smart Consensus EPS (Bt)
FY17
FY18
38.082
37.899
1.9%
3.7%
KT ZMICO vs. consensus Share data Reuters / Bloomberg
PTT.BK/PTT TB
Paid‐up Shares (m)
2,856.30
Par (Bt)
10.00
Market cap (Bt bn / US$ m)
1,100.00/33,066.00
Foreign limit / actual (%)
30.00/15.40
52 week High / Low (Bt)
430.00/311.00
Avg. daily T/O (shares 000) NVDR (%)
5,135.00 7.41
Estimated free float (%)
48.86
Beta
1.07
URL
www.pttplc.com
CGR Anti‐corruption
Level 5 (Certified)
Patcharin Karsemarnuntana Analyst, no 17834 [email protected] 66 (0) 2695‐5837
Strengthening the group’s position and long‐term growth platform As Thailand is moving towards the liberalization of gas business, the PTT Group has to strengthen its competitiveness as well as expand its growth platform through core business expansion and other potential energy‐ related business, in order to secure sustainable long‐term growth, with the return on invested capital (ROIC) targeted to be ranked in the 1st quartile among peers. We maintain an Outperform rating on PTT. “3D” strategic plan to secure long‐term sustainability PTT has set a “3D” strategic plan to secure the group’s sustainable long‐ term growth, including 1) DO NOW – to increase the group’s competitiveness with productivity improvement as the main focus; 2) DECIDE NOW – to expand the growth platform through core business expansion, the LNG value chain, renewable energy (via GPSC with a targeted 10% portion of renewable and energy storage out of its capacity portfolio), and international investment; and 3) DESIGN NOW – to seek opportunities in new business including the electricity value chain (i.e., EV battery power and energy storage), bio‐based value chain, and new potential business. Core business expansion Given gas as its core business, PTT has expanded its facilities to facilitate growing gas demand in light of the higher LNG imports required in the years ahead, i.e., LNG Receiving Terminal (i.e., LNG Terminal 1; Phase I – 5mta in operation, and Phase II – 5mta in 2017E, with maximum capacity enhancement of Phase I & II by 1.5mta to 11.5mta in 2019E; LNG Terminal 2 with 7.5mta capacity in 2022E), as well as the 5th gas transmission line in 2020E. In addition to LNG procurement, PTT is taking a step forward with PTTEP’s involvement in the midstream LNG value chain, with a 10% stake acquisition in Petronas Liquefaction Plant – MLNG Train 9 with 3.6mta capacity in operation. Meanwhile, the other areas of the group’s core business expansion include PTT’s oil and non‐oil business and its downstream affiliates’ investment projects in the pipeline towards 2022E (see figure 1). Productivity improvement enhancing incremental EBIT There has been an intense focus on improving the group’s productivity over several years through many initiatives aimed at production reliability, margin/value enhancement, and cost savings; all‐in‐all, this has led to incremental EBIT with a higher target set at Bt28.7bn in 2017E (vs. Bt24bn in 2016), which it was almost halfway to achieving (46% of target) in 1H17. Earnings forecasts maintained Given the 1H17 core profit accounting for 61% of our full‐year forecast, we believe our 2017E earnings forecast is highly achievable. Our forecasts call for its core profit to mark moderate growth at 9% CAGR during 2017‐18E, with its gas business as the core driver, along with a larger contribution from PTTEP and its downstream affiliates. Financials and Valuation FY Ended 31 Dec Revenues (Btmn) Core profit (Btmn) Net profit (Btmn) EPS (Bt) EPS growth (%) Dividend (Bt) BV (Bt) FY Ended 31 Dec PER (x) EV/EBITDA (x) PBV (x) Dividend yield (%) ROE (%) Net gearing (%)
2015 2,025,552 94,968 19,936 6.73 (66.91) 10.00 244.07 2015 57.21 5.19 1.58 2.6% 2.9% 44.9%
2016 1,718,846 93,728 94,609 32.68 385.59 16.00 267.11 2016 11.78 4.38 1.44 4.2% 13.0% 29.0%
2017E 2,692,001 101,159 110,826 38.82 18.79 15.53 287.77 2017E 9.92 4.31 1.34 4.0% 14.0% 34.4%
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 1 of 4
2018E 3,107,600 111,203 112,235 39.32 1.27 15.73 311.44 2018E 9.79 3.70 1.24 4.1% 13.1% 16.8%
2019E 3,591,867 116,835 117,251 41.07 4.47 16.43 336.41 2019E 9.37 3.23 1.14 4.3% 12.7% 0.8%
Figure 1: Upcoming projects of downstream affiliates
Source: The Company
Figure 2: LNG value chain and synergy capture
Source: The Company REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 2 of 4
Financial tables PROFIT & LOSS (Btm) Revenues Cost of sales and service Gross profit SG&A EBITDA Depreciation & amortization EBIT Interest expense Other income / exp. EBT Corporate tax Forex gain (loss) Extra Items Gain (loss) from affiliates Minority interests Net profit Reported EPS Fully diluted EPS Core net profit Core EPS Dividend (Bt) BALANCE SHEET (Btm) Cash and equivalents Accounts receivable Inventories PP&E‐net Other assets Total assets ST debt & current portion Long‐term debt Total liabilities Paid‐up shares Shareholder equity Minority interests Total liab. & shareholder equity CASH FLOW (Btm) Net income Forex and other extraordinary adjustments Depreciation & amortization Change in working capital Cash flow from operations Capex (Invest)/Divest Others Cash flow from investing Debt financing (repayment) Equity financing Dividend payment Others Cash flow from financing Net change in cash Free cash flow FCF per share (Bt) PROFITABILITY Revenue growth (%) EBITDA growth (%) EPS growth (%) Gross margin (%) EBITDA margin (%) Operating margin (%) Net margin (%) Core profit margin (%) Effective tax rate (%)
2014 2,605,062 (2,384,840) 220,222 (95,753) 260,033 135,563 124,469 (33,033) 36,926 128,361 (38,006) 11,610 (34,999) 860 (9,149) 58,678 20.34 20.34 82,066 28.73 11.00
2015 2,025,552 (1,808,624) 216,928 (87,890) 272,374 143,336 129,038 (30,079) 28,361 127,319 (25,071) (5,992) (71,180) 6,032 (11,171) 19,936 6.73 6.73 94,968 33.25 10.00
2016 1,718,846 (1,465,638) 253,208 (80,121) 301,822 128,734 173,088 (28,887) 6,640 150,841 (26,593) 4,473 (3,591) 4,143 (34,663) 94,609 32.68 32.68 93,728 32.81 16.00
2017E 2,692,001 (2,389,146) 302,855 (110,048) 320,538 127,731 192,807 (21,666) 14,292 185,433 (42,956) 4,006 5,661 3,400 (44,718) 110,826 38.82 38.82 101,159 35.42 15.53
2018E 3,107,600 (2,775,360 332,240 (126,952) 337,449 132,161 205,288 (19,653) 14,060 199,695 (45,912) 1,033 0 3,400 (45,981) 112,235 39.32 39.32 111,203 38.93 15.73
2019E 3,591,867 (3,234,769 357,097 (146,293) 342,407 131,602 210,805 (16,515) 14,010 208,300 (48,120) 416 0 3,400 (46,745) 117,251 41.07 41.07 116,835 40.90 16.43
2014 316,757 220,142 147,930 1,111,484 454,038 2,250,351 137,118 592,982 1,195,657 28,563 683,287 371,408 2,250,351
2015 346,725 195,484 115,729 1,124,965 391,093 2,173,996 81,094 578,753 1,086,309 28,563 697,147 390,540 2,173,996
2016 392,380 192,362 147,910 1,250,380 249,299 2,232,331 94,583 519,267 1,060,734 28,563 762,948 408,649 2,232,331
2017E 244,507 345,289 310,295 1,267,842 248,809 2,416,743 121,528 405,733 1,141,409 28,563 821,966 453,368 2,416,743
2018E 324,489 406,422 357,371 1,219,225 248,691 2,556,198 140,834 333,426 1,167,285 28,563 889,564 499,348 2,556,198
2019E 396,444 481,710 411,489 1,162,648 248,951 2,701,242 98,734 305,633 1,194,255 28,563 960,893 546,094 2,701,242
2014 58,678 (11,610) 135,563 (86,852) 95,779 (344,007)
2015 19,936 5,992 143,336 18,551 187,816 (130,006)
2016 94,609 (4,473) 128,734 25,011 243,881 (259,126)
2017E 110,826 (4,006) 127,731 (114,249) 120,301 (145,193)
2018E 112,235 (1,033) 132,161 3,351 246,714 (83,543)
2019E 117,251 (416) 131,602 (1,464) 246,973 (75,026)
(344,007) 243,751 (31,715) (34,276) 226,855 404,615 156,387 (248,228) (86.95)
(130,006) (70,253) 18,776 (29,991) 53,627 (27,842) 29,968 57,810 20.25
(259,126) (45,997) (22,197) (37,132) 166,224 60,899 45,655 (15,244) (5.34)
(145,193) (86,589) (48,098) (45,028) 56,733 (122,981) (147,873) (24,892) (8.72)
(83,543) (53,001) (42,581) (44,637) 57,030 (83,189) 79,982 163,171 57.16
(75,026) (69,893) (43,345) (45,923) 59,168 (99,993) 71,954 171,947 60.23
2014 (8.4) 19.3 (37.5) 8.5 10.0 4.8 2.3 3.2 29.6
2015 (22.2) 4.7 (66.9) 10.7 13.4 6.4 1.0 4.7 19.7
2016 (15.1) 10.8 385.6 14.7 17.6 10.1 5.5 5.5 17.6
2017E 56.6 6.2 18.8 11.3 11.9 7.2 4.1 3.8 23.2
2018E 15.4 5.3 1.3 10.7 10.9 6.6 3.6 3.6 23.0
2019E 15.6 1.5 4.5 9.9 9.5 5.9 3.3 3.3 23.1
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 3 of 4
Note: KT ZMICO has two major shareholders, Krungthai Bank PLC (KTB) and Seamico Securities PLC (ZMICO). Therefore, prior to making investments in the securities of KTB and ZMICO, investors should consider the risk factors carefully. An executive of KT ZMICO Securities is also a board member of BCP, BTC, CI, CPI, KBS, MAJOR, MK, PACE, PSL, SVH, VNG, ZMICO, SAWAD, TFG. A management member of KT ZMICO Securities is also a board member of BTC and NFC. KT ZMICO is a financial advisor for U, LOXLEY, ZMICO, MAKRO, CPALL, SAFARI, M‐CHAI, POMPUI, TTL, NMG, SAWAD.
Corporate Governance Report (CGR) Source: Sec, Thai Institute of Directors Association (IOD) Excellent (scores: 90 ‐ 100) Very Good (scores: 80 – 89) Good (scores: 70 – 79)
Satisfactory (scores: 60 – 69) Pass (scores: 50 – 59) No Logo N/A (scores: below 50)
Anti‐corruption Progress Indicator Source: Sec, Thailand's Private Sector Collective Action Coalition Against Corruption programme (Thai CAC)
Level 1 (Committed) : Organization’s statement or board's resolution to work against corruption and to be in compliance with all relevant laws. Level 2 (Declared) : Public declaration statement to participate in Thailand's private sector Collective Action Coalition Against Corruption (CAC) or equivalent initiatives Level 3 (Established) : Public out preventive measures, risk assessment, communication and training for all employees, including consistent monitoring and review processes Level 4 (Certified) : Audit engagement by audit committee or auditors approved by the office of SEC, and receiving certification or assurance by independent external assurance providers (CAC etc.) Level 5 (Extended) : Extension of the anti‐corruption policy to business partners in the supply chain, and disclosure of any current investigations, prosecutions or closed cases Insufficient or not clearly defined policy Data not available / no policy
DISCLAIMER This document is produced using open sources believed to be reliable. However, their accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. The statements and opinions herein were formed after due and careful consideration for use as information for the purposes of investment. The opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. This document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. The use of any information contained in this document shall be at the sole discretion and risk of the user.
KT ZMICO RESEARCH – RECOMMENDATION DEFINITIONS STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS
SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS
BUY: Expecting positive total returns of 15% or more OVERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's over the next 12 months coverage universe, is expected to outperform the relevant OUTPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% primary market index by at least 10% over the next 12 months. to +15%; returns expected to exceed market returns NEUTRAL: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage over a six‐month period due to specific catalysts universe, is expected to perform in line with the relevant UNDERPERFORM: Expecting total returns between primary market index over the next 12 months. ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to be below market UNDERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's returns over a six‐month period due to specific coverage universe, is expected to underperform the relevant catalysts primary market index by 10% over the next 12 months. SELL: Expecting negative total returns of 10% or more over the next 12 months
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 4 of 4
KT ZMICO Securities Company Limited Head Office
WWW.KTZMICO.COM
8th, 15th‐17th,19th, 21st Floor, Liberty Square Bldg., 287 Silom Road, Bangrak, Bangkok, Thailand 10500 Telephone: (66‐2) 695‐5000 Fax: (66‐2) 695‐5173 KT ZMICO Connect 662 695 5555
Central World Branch
Amarin Branch
22nd Floor, Amarin Building, 496‐502 Ploenchit Road, Lumpini, Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330 Telephone: (66‐2) 018‐6200 Fax: (66‐2) 018‐6298, (66‐2) 018‐6299
8th Floor, Ton Son Tower, 900 Ploenchit Road, Lumpini, Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330 Telephone: (66‐2) 626‐6000 Fax: (66‐2) 626‐6111
Phaholyothin Branch
Sindhorn Branch
Viphavadee Branch
2nd Floor, Sindhorn Tower 1, 130‐132 Wireless Road, Lumpini, Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330 Telephone: (66‐2) 627‐3550 Fax: (66‐2) 627‐3582, 627‐3600
G Floor, Lao Peng Nguan 1 Bldg., 333 Soi Cheypuand, Viphavadee‐Rangsit Road, Ladyao, Jatujak, Bangkok 10900 Telephone: (66‐2) 013‐8600 Fax: (66‐2) 618‐8569
BangKhae Branch
Chiang Mai Branch
Pak Chong Branch
999/9 The Offices at Central World, 16th Fl., Rama 1 Rd, Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330 Telephone: (66‐2) 264‐5888 Fax: (66‐2) 264 5899
1291/1, Shinnawatra Tower II, 3rd Floor, Phaholyothin Road, Phayathai, Bangkok 10400 Telephone: (66‐2) 686‐1500 Fax: (66‐2) 686‐1666
Ploenchit Branch
518 The Mall Group Building Bangkhae Branch, 6th Floor, Petchkasem Road, North Bangkhae, Bangkhae, Bangkok 10160 Telephone: (66‐2) 454‐9979 Fax: (66‐2) 454‐9970
422/49 Changklan Road, Changklan Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang, Chiang Mai 50100 Telephone: (053) 270‐072 Fax: (053) 272‐618
173 175, Mittapap Road, Nong Sarai, Pak Chong, Nakhon Ratchasima 30130 Telephone: (044) 279‐511 Fax: (044) 279‐574
Korat Branch
Khon Kaen Branch
Chonburi Branch
624/9 Changphuek Road, T.Naimaung, A.Maung, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000 Telephone: (044) 247222 Fax: (044) 247171
5th Floor, Charoen Thani Princess Hotel, 260 Srichan Road, T. Naimuang, A. Muang, Khon Kaen 40000 Telephone: (043) 389‐171‐193 Fax: (043) 389‐209
4th Floor, Forum Plaza Bldg., 870/52 Sukhumvit Road, T. Bangplasoy, A. Muang, Cholburi 20000 Telephone: (038) 287‐635 Fax: (038) 287‐637
Pattaya Branch
Chachoengsao Branch
Hat Yai Branch
Easy Point 2, 392/65 Moo.9, T.Nong Prue, A. Bang Lamung, Chonburi 20260 Telephone: (038) 420‐965 Fax: (038) 420‐968
108/34‐36 Mahajakkrapad Road, T.Namuang, A.Muang, Chachoengsao 24000 Telephone: (038) 813‐088 Fax: (038) 813‐099
200/301, 200/303 JULDIS HATYAI PLAZA Floor 3 , Niphat‐Uthit 3 Rd, Hatyai Songkhla 90110 Telephone: (074) 355530‐3 Fax: (074) 355534
Phuket Branch
22/61‐63, Luang Por Wat Chalong Road, Talat Yai, Mueang Phuket, Phuket 83000 Telephone: (076) 222‐811, (076) 222‐683 Fax: (076) 222‐861
Phitsanulok Branch
227/171 Borom Trilokkanat Road, Muang, Phitsanulok 65000 Telephone: 055‐219‐255 to 8 Fax: 055‐219‐259
Nakhon Pathom
Cyber Branch Ayutthaya
Cyber Branch @ North Nana
Cyber Branch Chiangrai
KrungThai Bank, Rojana Branch 253 Moo 5, Rojana Road, Phai Ling, Phra Nakhon Si Ayutthaya, Phra Nakhonsi Ayutthaya, 13000 Telephone: 035‐242‐477 Fax: 035‐242‐476
Krung Thai Bank PCL, 2 Floor, North Nana Branch 35 Sukhumvit Rd., Klong Toey Nua Subdistrict , Wattana District , Bangkok 10110 Telephone: 083‐490‐2871
River Hotel (Building 3rd),1156 Petchakasem Road, Sanamchan Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang , Nakhon Pathom Province 73000 Telephone: (034) 271300 Fax: (034) 271300 #100
KrungThai Bank, Hayaek Phokhun Mengrai Branch 116/19 Moo 19, Highway 110 Road, Rop Wiang, Mueang Chiang Rai, Chiang Rai, 57000 Telephone: 053‐715‐067 Fax: 053‐715‐068
Outperform (17E TP Bt425.00)
Company Update
Close Bt385.00
Energy & Utilities August 18, 2017
Earnings upgrade/ Earnings downgrade / Overview unchanged
Sets strategic plan for long‐term sustainability Price Performance (%)
Source: SET Smart Consensus EPS (Bt)
FY17
FY18
38.082
37.899
1.9%
3.7%
KT ZMICO vs. consensus Share data Reuters / Bloomberg
PTT.BK/PTT TB
Paid‐up Shares (m)
2,856.30
Par (Bt)
10.00
Market cap (Bt bn / US$ m)
1,100.00/33,066.00
Foreign limit / actual (%)
30.00/15.40
52 week High / Low (Bt)
430.00/311.00
Avg. daily T/O (shares 000) NVDR (%)
5,135.00 7.41
Estimated free float (%)
48.86
Beta
1.07
URL
www.pttplc.com
CGR Anti‐corruption
Level 5 (Certified)
Patcharin Karsemarnuntana Analyst, no 17834 [email protected] 66 (0) 2695‐5837
Strengthening the group’s position and long‐term growth platform As Thailand is moving towards the liberalization of gas business, the PTT Group has to strengthen its competitiveness as well as expand its growth platform through core business expansion and other potential energy‐ related business, in order to secure sustainable long‐term growth, with the return on invested capital (ROIC) targeted to be ranked in the 1st quartile among peers. We maintain an Outperform rating on PTT. “3D” strategic plan to secure long‐term sustainability PTT has set a “3D” strategic plan to secure the group’s sustainable long‐ term growth, including 1) DO NOW – to increase the group’s competitiveness with productivity improvement as the main focus; 2) DECIDE NOW – to expand the growth platform through core business expansion, the LNG value chain, renewable energy (via GPSC with a targeted 10% portion of renewable and energy storage out of its capacity portfolio), and international investment; and 3) DESIGN NOW – to seek opportunities in new business including the electricity value chain (i.e., EV battery power and energy storage), bio‐based value chain, and new potential business. Core business expansion Given gas as its core business, PTT has expanded its facilities to facilitate growing gas demand in light of the higher LNG imports required in the years ahead, i.e., LNG Receiving Terminal (i.e., LNG Terminal 1; Phase I – 5mta in operation, and Phase II – 5mta in 2017E, with maximum capacity enhancement of Phase I & II by 1.5mta to 11.5mta in 2019E; LNG Terminal 2 with 7.5mta capacity in 2022E), as well as the 5th gas transmission line in 2020E. In addition to LNG procurement, PTT is taking a step forward with PTTEP’s involvement in the midstream LNG value chain, with a 10% stake acquisition in Petronas Liquefaction Plant – MLNG Train 9 with 3.6mta capacity in operation. Meanwhile, the other areas of the group’s core business expansion include PTT’s oil and non‐oil business and its downstream affiliates’ investment projects in the pipeline towards 2022E (see figure 1). Productivity improvement enhancing incremental EBIT There has been an intense focus on improving the group’s productivity over several years through many initiatives aimed at production reliability, margin/value enhancement, and cost savings; all‐in‐all, this has led to incremental EBIT with a higher target set at Bt28.7bn in 2017E (vs. Bt24bn in 2016), which it was almost halfway to achieving (46% of target) in 1H17. Earnings forecasts maintained Given the 1H17 core profit accounting for 61% of our full‐year forecast, we believe our 2017E earnings forecast is highly achievable. Our forecasts call for its core profit to mark moderate growth at 9% CAGR during 2017‐18E, with its gas business as the core driver, along with a larger contribution from PTTEP and its downstream affiliates. Financials and Valuation FY Ended 31 Dec Revenues (Btmn) Core profit (Btmn) Net profit (Btmn) EPS (Bt) EPS growth (%) Dividend (Bt) BV (Bt) FY Ended 31 Dec PER (x) EV/EBITDA (x) PBV (x) Dividend yield (%) ROE (%) Net gearing (%)
2015 2,025,552 94,968 19,936 6.73 (66.91) 10.00 244.07 2015 57.21 5.19 1.58 2.6% 2.9% 44.9%
2016 1,718,846 93,728 94,609 32.68 385.59 16.00 267.11 2016 11.78 4.38 1.44 4.2% 13.0% 29.0%
2017E 2,692,001 101,159 110,826 38.82 18.79 15.53 287.77 2017E 9.92 4.31 1.34 4.0% 14.0% 34.4%
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 1 of 4
2018E 3,107,600 111,203 112,235 39.32 1.27 15.73 311.44 2018E 9.79 3.70 1.24 4.1% 13.1% 16.8%
2019E 3,591,867 116,835 117,251 41.07 4.47 16.43 336.41 2019E 9.37 3.23 1.14 4.3% 12.7% 0.8%
Figure 1: Upcoming projects of downstream affiliates
Source: The Company
Figure 2: LNG value chain and synergy capture
Source: The Company REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 2 of 4
Financial tables PROFIT & LOSS (Btm) Revenues Cost of sales and service Gross profit SG&A EBITDA Depreciation & amortization EBIT Interest expense Other income / exp. EBT Corporate tax Forex gain (loss) Extra Items Gain (loss) from affiliates Minority interests Net profit Reported EPS Fully diluted EPS Core net profit Core EPS Dividend (Bt) BALANCE SHEET (Btm) Cash and equivalents Accounts receivable Inventories PP&E‐net Other assets Total assets ST debt & current portion Long‐term debt Total liabilities Paid‐up shares Shareholder equity Minority interests Total liab. & shareholder equity CASH FLOW (Btm) Net income Forex and other extraordinary adjustments Depreciation & amortization Change in working capital Cash flow from operations Capex (Invest)/Divest Others Cash flow from investing Debt financing (repayment) Equity financing Dividend payment Others Cash flow from financing Net change in cash Free cash flow FCF per share (Bt) PROFITABILITY Revenue growth (%) EBITDA growth (%) EPS growth (%) Gross margin (%) EBITDA margin (%) Operating margin (%) Net margin (%) Core profit margin (%) Effective tax rate (%)
2014 2,605,062 (2,384,840) 220,222 (95,753) 260,033 135,563 124,469 (33,033) 36,926 128,361 (38,006) 11,610 (34,999) 860 (9,149) 58,678 20.34 20.34 82,066 28.73 11.00
2015 2,025,552 (1,808,624) 216,928 (87,890) 272,374 143,336 129,038 (30,079) 28,361 127,319 (25,071) (5,992) (71,180) 6,032 (11,171) 19,936 6.73 6.73 94,968 33.25 10.00
2016 1,718,846 (1,465,638) 253,208 (80,121) 301,822 128,734 173,088 (28,887) 6,640 150,841 (26,593) 4,473 (3,591) 4,143 (34,663) 94,609 32.68 32.68 93,728 32.81 16.00
2017E 2,692,001 (2,389,146) 302,855 (110,048) 320,538 127,731 192,807 (21,666) 14,292 185,433 (42,956) 4,006 5,661 3,400 (44,718) 110,826 38.82 38.82 101,159 35.42 15.53
2018E 3,107,600 (2,775,360 332,240 (126,952) 337,449 132,161 205,288 (19,653) 14,060 199,695 (45,912) 1,033 0 3,400 (45,981) 112,235 39.32 39.32 111,203 38.93 15.73
2019E 3,591,867 (3,234,769 357,097 (146,293) 342,407 131,602 210,805 (16,515) 14,010 208,300 (48,120) 416 0 3,400 (46,745) 117,251 41.07 41.07 116,835 40.90 16.43
2014 316,757 220,142 147,930 1,111,484 454,038 2,250,351 137,118 592,982 1,195,657 28,563 683,287 371,408 2,250,351
2015 346,725 195,484 115,729 1,124,965 391,093 2,173,996 81,094 578,753 1,086,309 28,563 697,147 390,540 2,173,996
2016 392,380 192,362 147,910 1,250,380 249,299 2,232,331 94,583 519,267 1,060,734 28,563 762,948 408,649 2,232,331
2017E 244,507 345,289 310,295 1,267,842 248,809 2,416,743 121,528 405,733 1,141,409 28,563 821,966 453,368 2,416,743
2018E 324,489 406,422 357,371 1,219,225 248,691 2,556,198 140,834 333,426 1,167,285 28,563 889,564 499,348 2,556,198
2019E 396,444 481,710 411,489 1,162,648 248,951 2,701,242 98,734 305,633 1,194,255 28,563 960,893 546,094 2,701,242
2014 58,678 (11,610) 135,563 (86,852) 95,779 (344,007)
2015 19,936 5,992 143,336 18,551 187,816 (130,006)
2016 94,609 (4,473) 128,734 25,011 243,881 (259,126)
2017E 110,826 (4,006) 127,731 (114,249) 120,301 (145,193)
2018E 112,235 (1,033) 132,161 3,351 246,714 (83,543)
2019E 117,251 (416) 131,602 (1,464) 246,973 (75,026)
(344,007) 243,751 (31,715) (34,276) 226,855 404,615 156,387 (248,228) (86.95)
(130,006) (70,253) 18,776 (29,991) 53,627 (27,842) 29,968 57,810 20.25
(259,126) (45,997) (22,197) (37,132) 166,224 60,899 45,655 (15,244) (5.34)
(145,193) (86,589) (48,098) (45,028) 56,733 (122,981) (147,873) (24,892) (8.72)
(83,543) (53,001) (42,581) (44,637) 57,030 (83,189) 79,982 163,171 57.16
(75,026) (69,893) (43,345) (45,923) 59,168 (99,993) 71,954 171,947 60.23
2014 (8.4) 19.3 (37.5) 8.5 10.0 4.8 2.3 3.2 29.6
2015 (22.2) 4.7 (66.9) 10.7 13.4 6.4 1.0 4.7 19.7
2016 (15.1) 10.8 385.6 14.7 17.6 10.1 5.5 5.5 17.6
2017E 56.6 6.2 18.8 11.3 11.9 7.2 4.1 3.8 23.2
2018E 15.4 5.3 1.3 10.7 10.9 6.6 3.6 3.6 23.0
2019E 15.6 1.5 4.5 9.9 9.5 5.9 3.3 3.3 23.1
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 3 of 4
Note: KT ZMICO has two major shareholders, Krungthai Bank PLC (KTB) and Seamico Securities PLC (ZMICO). Therefore, prior to making investments in the securities of KTB and ZMICO, investors should consider the risk factors carefully. An executive of KT ZMICO Securities is also a board member of BCP, BTC, CI, CPI, KBS, MAJOR, MK, PACE, PSL, SVH, VNG, ZMICO, SAWAD, TFG. A management member of KT ZMICO Securities is also a board member of BTC and NFC. KT ZMICO is a financial advisor for U, LOXLEY, ZMICO, MAKRO, CPALL, SAFARI, M‐CHAI, POMPUI, TTL, NMG, SAWAD.
Corporate Governance Report (CGR) Source: Sec, Thai Institute of Directors Association (IOD) Excellent (scores: 90 ‐ 100) Very Good (scores: 80 – 89) Good (scores: 70 – 79)
Satisfactory (scores: 60 – 69) Pass (scores: 50 – 59) No Logo N/A (scores: below 50)
Anti‐corruption Progress Indicator Source: Sec, Thailand's Private Sector Collective Action Coalition Against Corruption programme (Thai CAC)
Level 1 (Committed) : Organization’s statement or board's resolution to work against corruption and to be in compliance with all relevant laws. Level 2 (Declared) : Public declaration statement to participate in Thailand's private sector Collective Action Coalition Against Corruption (CAC) or equivalent initiatives Level 3 (Established) : Public out preventive measures, risk assessment, communication and training for all employees, including consistent monitoring and review processes Level 4 (Certified) : Audit engagement by audit committee or auditors approved by the office of SEC, and receiving certification or assurance by independent external assurance providers (CAC etc.) Level 5 (Extended) : Extension of the anti‐corruption policy to business partners in the supply chain, and disclosure of any current investigations, prosecutions or closed cases Insufficient or not clearly defined policy Data not available / no policy
DISCLAIMER This document is produced using open sources believed to be reliable. However, their accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. The statements and opinions herein were formed after due and careful consideration for use as information for the purposes of investment. The opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. This document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. The use of any information contained in this document shall be at the sole discretion and risk of the user.
KT ZMICO RESEARCH – RECOMMENDATION DEFINITIONS STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS
SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS
BUY: Expecting positive total returns of 15% or more OVERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's over the next 12 months coverage universe, is expected to outperform the relevant OUTPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% primary market index by at least 10% over the next 12 months. to +15%; returns expected to exceed market returns NEUTRAL: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage over a six‐month period due to specific catalysts universe, is expected to perform in line with the relevant UNDERPERFORM: Expecting total returns between primary market index over the next 12 months. ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to be below market UNDERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's returns over a six‐month period due to specific coverage universe, is expected to underperform the relevant catalysts primary market index by 10% over the next 12 months. SELL: Expecting negative total returns of 10% or more over the next 12 months
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 4 of 4
KT ZMICO Securities Company Limited Head Office
WWW.KTZMICO.COM
8th, 15th‐17th,19th, 21st Floor, Liberty Square Bldg., 287 Silom Road, Bangrak, Bangkok, Thailand 10500 Telephone: (66‐2) 695‐5000 Fax: (66‐2) 695‐5173 KT ZMICO Connect 662 695 5555
Central World Branch
Amarin Branch
22nd Floor, Amarin Building, 496‐502 Ploenchit Road, Lumpini, Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330 Telephone: (66‐2) 018‐6200 Fax: (66‐2) 018‐6298, (66‐2) 018‐6299
8th Floor, Ton Son Tower, 900 Ploenchit Road, Lumpini, Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330 Telephone: (66‐2) 626‐6000 Fax: (66‐2) 626‐6111
Phaholyothin Branch
Sindhorn Branch
Viphavadee Branch
2nd Floor, Sindhorn Tower 1, 130‐132 Wireless Road, Lumpini, Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330 Telephone: (66‐2) 627‐3550 Fax: (66‐2) 627‐3582, 627‐3600
G Floor, Lao Peng Nguan 1 Bldg., 333 Soi Cheypuand, Viphavadee‐Rangsit Road, Ladyao, Jatujak, Bangkok 10900 Telephone: (66‐2) 013‐8600 Fax: (66‐2) 618‐8569
BangKhae Branch
Chiang Mai Branch
Pak Chong Branch
999/9 The Offices at Central World, 16th Fl., Rama 1 Rd, Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330 Telephone: (66‐2) 264‐5888 Fax: (66‐2) 264 5899
1291/1, Shinnawatra Tower II, 3rd Floor, Phaholyothin Road, Phayathai, Bangkok 10400 Telephone: (66‐2) 686‐1500 Fax: (66‐2) 686‐1666
Ploenchit Branch
518 The Mall Group Building Bangkhae Branch, 6th Floor, Petchkasem Road, North Bangkhae, Bangkhae, Bangkok 10160 Telephone: (66‐2) 454‐9979 Fax: (66‐2) 454‐9970
422/49 Changklan Road, Changklan Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang, Chiang Mai 50100 Telephone: (053) 270‐072 Fax: (053) 272‐618
173 175, Mittapap Road, Nong Sarai, Pak Chong, Nakhon Ratchasima 30130 Telephone: (044) 279‐511 Fax: (044) 279‐574
Korat Branch
Khon Kaen Branch
Chonburi Branch
624/9 Changphuek Road, T.Naimaung, A.Maung, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000 Telephone: (044) 247222 Fax: (044) 247171
5th Floor, Charoen Thani Princess Hotel, 260 Srichan Road, T. Naimuang, A. Muang, Khon Kaen 40000 Telephone: (043) 389‐171‐193 Fax: (043) 389‐209
4th Floor, Forum Plaza Bldg., 870/52 Sukhumvit Road, T. Bangplasoy, A. Muang, Cholburi 20000 Telephone: (038) 287‐635 Fax: (038) 287‐637
Pattaya Branch
Chachoengsao Branch
Hat Yai Branch
Easy Point 2, 392/65 Moo.9, T.Nong Prue, A. Bang Lamung, Chonburi 20260 Telephone: (038) 420‐965 Fax: (038) 420‐968
108/34‐36 Mahajakkrapad Road, T.Namuang, A.Muang, Chachoengsao 24000 Telephone: (038) 813‐088 Fax: (038) 813‐099
200/301, 200/303 JULDIS HATYAI PLAZA Floor 3 , Niphat‐Uthit 3 Rd, Hatyai Songkhla 90110 Telephone: (074) 355530‐3 Fax: (074) 355534
Phuket Branch
22/61‐63, Luang Por Wat Chalong Road, Talat Yai, Mueang Phuket, Phuket 83000 Telephone: (076) 222‐811, (076) 222‐683 Fax: (076) 222‐861
Phitsanulok Branch
227/171 Borom Trilokkanat Road, Muang, Phitsanulok 65000 Telephone: 055‐219‐255 to 8 Fax: 055‐219‐259
Nakhon Pathom
Cyber Branch Ayutthaya
Cyber Branch @ North Nana
Cyber Branch Chiangrai
KrungThai Bank, Rojana Branch 253 Moo 5, Rojana Road, Phai Ling, Phra Nakhon Si Ayutthaya, Phra Nakhonsi Ayutthaya, 13000 Telephone: 035‐242‐477 Fax: 035‐242‐476
Krung Thai Bank PCL, 2 Floor, North Nana Branch 35 Sukhumvit Rd., Klong Toey Nua Subdistrict , Wattana District , Bangkok 10110 Telephone: 083‐490‐2871
River Hotel (Building 3rd),1156 Petchakasem Road, Sanamchan Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang , Nakhon Pathom Province 73000 Telephone: (034) 271300 Fax: (034) 271300 #100
KrungThai Bank, Hayaek Phokhun Mengrai Branch 116/19 Moo 19, Highway 110 Road, Rop Wiang, Mueang Chiang Rai, Chiang Rai, 57000 Telephone: 053‐715‐067 Fax: 053‐715‐068
