Partnership for the Delaware Estuary
Climate Adaptation in the Delaware Estuary: Risks, Opportunities and Tough Choices
Danielle Kreeger Science Director
The Partnership for the Delaware Estuary Non-Profit Organization, Established 1996
One of 28 EPA National Estuary Programs Tri-state, multi-region NEP Coordination, Outreach, Education, Restoration and Science Advancement Science and Technical Advisory Committee (STAC), multisector
Along the Christina River Wilmington, DE
Science & Management Committees Monitoring Advisory Committee
Climate Work Group
Fish & Wildlife Cooperative
Water Quality Advisory Committee
Fish Consumption Task Force
*Prospective
Shellfish Stock Assessment Workgroup
STAC
Atlantic Coast Fish Habitat Partnership*
Regional Restoration Workgroup
Benthic Inventory Workgroup
Atlantic States Marine Fisheries Commission
DE Estuary Wetland Work Group
Toxics Advisory Committee
Case Studies Climate Ready Pilot Adaptation Planning ID Vulnerabilities
Loss of Nature’s Benefits
Tidal Marshes
Bivalve Shellfish
Adaptation Options
Recommendations
Drinking Water DK 5
Climate Change in the Delaware Estuary 1. Likely Physical Changes Temp
Salinity
Sea Level Rise
Storms
2. Example Effects on Key Resources
Water
Wetlands
Fish & Wildlife DK 6
Climate Impacts on Drinking Water Levels Supply Combined Vulnerability and Confidence 160
Prototype
flooding sea level rise
140
disruptions to aquatic ecosystems 120
storm surge lightening and electrical disturbances
100
increased number and intensity of wild fires increased frequency of short-term drought 80
decreased groundwater levels decreased river discharge and stream flow
60
changes in watershed vegetation and forest cover
extreme flooding
40
increased groundwater levels 20
increased runoff
increased river discharge and stream flow 0
Erosion of Infrastructure
Overflowing Reservoir Capacity
Decreased Reservoir Supply
Examples
Power Outages
Relative Cost/Benefit Analysis of Adaptation Options 45
Prototype
flooding
40
sea level rise 35
disruptions to aquatic ecosystems
Drinking Water Tough Questions storm surge lightening electrical disturbances • How can we maintain low salinity in and the upper estuary? increased number and intensity of wild fires • Will more reservoirs be needed, which have increased frequency of short-term drought their own issues? groundwater levels • Where should infrastructure be decreased protected decreased river discharge and stream flow from SLR versus strategic retreat?
30
25
20
15
10
changes in watershed vegetation and forest cover
5
extreme flooding 0
Campaign to Retrofit old Pipes
New Salt Resistance Infrastructure
Create designated Stream Buffers flood zones
Examples
Controlled Burns
increased groundwater levels
Tidal Wetlands A Signature Trait of System Near Contiguous Band Diverse: Freshwater Tidal Marshes Brackish Marshes Salt Marshes Nature’s Benefits Flood Protection Water Quality Fish and Wildlife Natural Areas Carbon Sequestration
Wetland Benefits (Ecosystem Services) Milenium Ecosystem Assessment 1º Service
2º Service
Fisheries Support
Food
Provisioning
Algae and invertebrate production Livelihoods
Genetic Materials Biochemical Products Fiber and Fuel Sequestration
Phragmites control research Research in Antifungal Agents Cellulose stock
Health
Sediment Stabilization
Regulating
Storm Protection/ Wave Attenuation/ Flood Protection
Lives
Gas Regulation Water Quality
Supporting
Health Carbon Caps, mitigation Meet TMDLs for sediment
Carbon Erosion control Protect Property Values and infrastructure Carbon Sequestration Oxygen production
Health
Recreation Spiritual and Inspirational
Cultural/ Spiritual Human Well Being
4º Service
3º Service
TMDLs: Nutrients, Pollutants
Sequestration, Filtering
Bird watching, hunting, boating Native American Uses University reasearch & school projects/trips Landscape pictures, paintings, open space Wildlife, shellfish, insects Maintain Plant Communities Primary Production
Health
Educational Aesthetic Value Habitat Biodiversity Production Water Cycling/Hydrologic Regime Nutrient Cycling/Biogeochemical Processes
Health
Maintain trophic cycles, soil building
Are Coastal Wetlands Crossing a Tipping Point? Example
Smooth Response
Unlikely
Extent of Climate Change
Ecosystem Response
Ecosystem Response
Critical thresholds can be breached even if conditions change gradually Abrupt Response
Likely Threshold
Extent of Climate Change Slide adapted from Carlos Duarte
DK 11
Tidal Wetlands Long-standing Concerns Degradation Conversion and Loss Growing Concerns
Sea Level & Salinity Rise Storms
Sediment budget Living Shorelines 2008
DK 12
Angola Neck – Rehoboth Bay, DE
Summer, 2006
Sudden Wetland Dieback – Marsh Browning
Severely Stressed 35%
Minimally or Not Stressed 17%
Moderately Stressed 48%
Slide from Chris Bason and Amy Jacobs
Changes in Wetland Function Natural versus Restored Benefits (functions)
Reference Wetland Condition
Existing Wetlands
Restored Wetlands
time
Slide adapted from Amy Jacobs (DNREC)
Tidal Wetland Vulnerability? Freshwater Tidal Marshes • Salinity Rise Causes Conversion to Brackish • Barriers to Landward Migration • Others: Tidal Range, Seasonal Drying/Wetting
Salt Marshes • Sea Level Rise, Subsidence and Sediment Deficits Lead to Drowning • Storms and Wind Wave Erosion • Barriers to Landward Migration • Others: Seasonal Wetting/Drying, Invasives
Options? Living Shorelines
Delaware Estuary Living Shorelines
Elevation Increase %
120 100 80 60 40 20 0 Log
Double Log
Shellbag + Log
Treatment
Control
Tidal Wetlands Adaptation Planning Goal: Maximize long-term ecosystem health and resiliency
Wetland Tough Choices • Where will wetlands will be converted to open water? • Where can we save them ? • Where is strategic retreat the best option?
DK 18
Bivalves of the Delaware
11 Other Species of Freshwater Unionid Mussels
Corbicula fluminea Elliptio complanata
Rangia cuneata
Mya arenaria
Geukensia demissa
Mytilus edulis Ensis directus
Mercenaria DRBC mercenaria Crassostrea virginica
DK 19
Shifts in Species Ranges of Freshwater Mussels Patchy, Impaired
Elliptio complanata
Rare
Extirpated
Strophitus undulatus
Alasmidonta heterodon State Conservation Status NJ
Scientific Name
Scientific Name
ALASMIDONTA HETERODON
DWARF WEDGEMUSSEL
Endangered
Endangered
Critically Imperiled
ALASMIDONTA UNDULATA
TRIANGLE FLOATER
Extirpated ?
Threatened
Vulnerable
ALASMIDONTA VARICOSA
BROOK FLOATER
Endangered
Endangered
Imperiled
ANODONTA IMPLICATA
ALEWIFE FLOATER
Extremely Rare
no data
Extirpated ?
ELLIPTIO COMPLANATA
EASTERN ELLIPTIO
common
common
Secure
LAMPSILIS CARIOSA
YELLOW LAMPMUSSEL
Endangered
Threatened
Vulnerable
LAMPSILIS RADIATA
EASTERN LAMPMUSSEL
Endangered
Threatened
Imperiled
LASMIGONA SUBVIRIDIS
GREEN FLOATER
no data
Endangered
Imperiled
LEPTODEA OCHRACEA
TIDEWATER MUCKET
Endangered
Threatened
Extirpated ?
LIGUMIA NASUTA
EASTERN PONDMUSSEL
Endangered
Threatened
Critically Imperiled
MARGARITIFERA MARGARITIFERA
EASTERN PEARLSHELL
no data
no data
Imperiled
PYGANODON CATARACTA
EASTERN FLOATER
no data
no data
Vulnerable
STROPHITUS UNDULATUS
SQUAWFOOT
Extremely Rare
Species of Concern
Apparently Secure
DE
PA
Figure from Cummings and Mayer (1992).
Freshwater Mussel Larvae Require Fish Hosts
Larvae are brooded in the ctenidia
Most mussels depend on particular fish species
Shifts in Species Ranges of Freshwater Mussels Patchy, Impaired
Elliptio complanata
Rare
Extirpated
Strophitus undulatus
Alasmidonta heterodon State Conservation Status NJ
Scientific Name
Scientific Name
ALASMIDONTA HETERODON
DWARF WEDGEMUSSEL
Endangered
Endangered
Critically Imperiled
ALASMIDONTA UNDULATA
TRIANGLE FLOATER
Extirpated ?
Threatened
Vulnerable
ALASMIDONTA VARICOSA
BROOK FLOATER
Endangered
Endangered
Imperiled
ANODONTA IMPLICATA
ALEWIFE FLOATER
Extremely Rare
no data
Extirpated ?
ELLIPTIO COMPLANATA
EASTERN ELLIPTIO
common
common
Secure
LAMPSILIS CARIOSA
YELLOW LAMPMUSSEL
Endangered
Threatened
Vulnerable
LAMPSILIS RADIATA
EASTERN LAMPMUSSEL
Endangered
Threatened
Imperiled
LASMIGONA SUBVIRIDIS
GREEN FLOATER
no data
Endangered
Imperiled
LEPTODEA OCHRACEA
TIDEWATER MUCKET
Endangered
Threatened
Extirpated ?
LIGUMIA NASUTA
EASTERN PONDMUSSEL
Endangered
Threatened
Critically Imperiled
MARGARITIFERA MARGARITIFERA
EASTERN PEARLSHELL
no data
no data
Imperiled
PYGANODON CATARACTA
EASTERN FLOATER
no data
no data
Vulnerable
STROPHITUS UNDULATUS
SQUAWFOOT
Extremely Rare
Species of Concern
Apparently Secure
DE
PA
Oyster Disease and Salinity
Salt Line Location
From Rutgers HSRL From DRBC
www.livingclassrooms.org/lbo/dermo/oyster2.jpg
Oyster Management Can they maintain (or be maintained) until they might see more optimal conditions? 1000
No Help With Help
1758
900
DK 25
Longer Growing Season
800
Options? Shellplanting2 Recruitment
Number per Bushel
700 600
Events
500 400
Intertidal Niche Expansion?
300 200 100
Point of No Return
Oyster
Spat
Mean Oyster
Mean Spat
Historical data from Rutgers Haskin Shellfish Laboratory
5
7
2060
Year
3
2030
53 55 57 59 61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 1
Today
0
BrandywineRiver, River,PA PA Brandywine
Elliptio complanata
Delaware Estuary Marshes
Geukensia demissa
Delaware Bay Oysters
Crassostrea virginica DK 26
Bivalve Vulnerability? Oyster Reefs • Salinity Driven Disease Epizootics • Others: Food, pH
Salt marsh Mussel Beds • Loss and Degradation of Wetland Habitat • Others: Food, PH
Freshwater Mussel Beds • Range Shifts with No Dispersal • Habitat Degradation (T, salinity, pH, fish hosts)
Nature’s Benefits Bivalve Shellfish are “Ecosystem Engineers”
CTUIR Freshwater Mussel Project DK 28
Water Filtration Benefits Start No mussels
8 adult mussels
Slide from R. Neves, VA Tech
DK 29
Water Filtration Benefits Later No mussels
8 adult mussels
Slide from R. Neves, VA Tech
DK 30
Water Filtration Benefits Population-Level Water Processing Billions of Liters per Hour
60 50 40 30 20 10 0
Elliptio complanata
Geukensia demissa
Crassostrea virginica
Nature’s Benefits (Natural Capital)
Livelihoods Shellfish Tough Decisions Which species and associated benefits can be Lives sustained? Which should we invest in? (since funding will always be limited) Health
Livelihoods
Health
Climate Change in a Complex Landscape The Working River 4th largest US urban center world’s largest freshwater port 70% of east coast oil past and present industrial center
The Living Estuary Water fowl, finfish, shellfish Horseshoe crab population Extensive tidal marshes
DK 33
Climate & Other Changes Together DK 34
•Marcellus Shale •Ecological Flows •Spills, NRDA •Dredging Added Complexity •Withdrawals •Wind Farms •Land Use Change •Development •Emerging Pollutants
Many Other Issues Timing of Shorebird Migration and Horseshoe Crab Spawning
Website slides are from the Delaware Shorebird Project and the Horseshoe Crab Conservation Network
Principle: “Restore” for the Future • Forecast future sustainable states (winners and losers) • Smart “restoration” = climate adaptation • Shift policy and management paradigms 1000 900
No Help With Help
1758
800
Number per Bushel
700 600 500 400 300 200 100
Point of No Return
0 53 55 57 59 61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 1 3 5 7 Year
2030
Today
Historical fromMean Rutgers Laboratory Oyster data Spat OysterHaskin MeanShellfish Spat
Principle: Maximize Bang for the Buck
DK 36
Next Steps? 1. Science Strengthen adaptation plan with more rigorous monitoring and predictive modeling for likely consequences
2. Local Relevance Develop high resolution geospatial–based planning tools that guide local actions, nested within a watershed-basis
3. Nature’s Benefits Develop and use decision tools with “bang for the buck” estimates of environmental outcomes for various adaptation tactics
4. Collaboration Implement a coordinated strategy for advancing science, policy and on-the-ground actions
- End -
Danielle Kreeger Science Director
The Partnership for the Delaware Estuary Non-Profit Organization, Established 1996
One of 28 EPA National Estuary Programs Tri-state, multi-region NEP Coordination, Outreach, Education, Restoration and Science Advancement Science and Technical Advisory Committee (STAC), multisector
Along the Christina River Wilmington, DE
Science & Management Committees Monitoring Advisory Committee
Climate Work Group
Fish & Wildlife Cooperative
Water Quality Advisory Committee
Fish Consumption Task Force
*Prospective
Shellfish Stock Assessment Workgroup
STAC
Atlantic Coast Fish Habitat Partnership*
Regional Restoration Workgroup
Benthic Inventory Workgroup
Atlantic States Marine Fisheries Commission
DE Estuary Wetland Work Group
Toxics Advisory Committee
Case Studies Climate Ready Pilot Adaptation Planning ID Vulnerabilities
Loss of Nature’s Benefits
Tidal Marshes
Bivalve Shellfish
Adaptation Options
Recommendations
Drinking Water DK 5
Climate Change in the Delaware Estuary 1. Likely Physical Changes Temp
Salinity
Sea Level Rise
Storms
2. Example Effects on Key Resources
Water
Wetlands
Fish & Wildlife DK 6
Climate Impacts on Drinking Water Levels Supply Combined Vulnerability and Confidence 160
Prototype
flooding sea level rise
140
disruptions to aquatic ecosystems 120
storm surge lightening and electrical disturbances
100
increased number and intensity of wild fires increased frequency of short-term drought 80
decreased groundwater levels decreased river discharge and stream flow
60
changes in watershed vegetation and forest cover
extreme flooding
40
increased groundwater levels 20
increased runoff
increased river discharge and stream flow 0
Erosion of Infrastructure
Overflowing Reservoir Capacity
Decreased Reservoir Supply
Examples
Power Outages
Relative Cost/Benefit Analysis of Adaptation Options 45
Prototype
flooding
40
sea level rise 35
disruptions to aquatic ecosystems
Drinking Water Tough Questions storm surge lightening electrical disturbances • How can we maintain low salinity in and the upper estuary? increased number and intensity of wild fires • Will more reservoirs be needed, which have increased frequency of short-term drought their own issues? groundwater levels • Where should infrastructure be decreased protected decreased river discharge and stream flow from SLR versus strategic retreat?
30
25
20
15
10
changes in watershed vegetation and forest cover
5
extreme flooding 0
Campaign to Retrofit old Pipes
New Salt Resistance Infrastructure
Create designated Stream Buffers flood zones
Examples
Controlled Burns
increased groundwater levels
Tidal Wetlands A Signature Trait of System Near Contiguous Band Diverse: Freshwater Tidal Marshes Brackish Marshes Salt Marshes Nature’s Benefits Flood Protection Water Quality Fish and Wildlife Natural Areas Carbon Sequestration
Wetland Benefits (Ecosystem Services) Milenium Ecosystem Assessment 1º Service
2º Service
Fisheries Support
Food
Provisioning
Algae and invertebrate production Livelihoods
Genetic Materials Biochemical Products Fiber and Fuel Sequestration
Phragmites control research Research in Antifungal Agents Cellulose stock
Health
Sediment Stabilization
Regulating
Storm Protection/ Wave Attenuation/ Flood Protection
Lives
Gas Regulation Water Quality
Supporting
Health Carbon Caps, mitigation Meet TMDLs for sediment
Carbon Erosion control Protect Property Values and infrastructure Carbon Sequestration Oxygen production
Health
Recreation Spiritual and Inspirational
Cultural/ Spiritual Human Well Being
4º Service
3º Service
TMDLs: Nutrients, Pollutants
Sequestration, Filtering
Bird watching, hunting, boating Native American Uses University reasearch & school projects/trips Landscape pictures, paintings, open space Wildlife, shellfish, insects Maintain Plant Communities Primary Production
Health
Educational Aesthetic Value Habitat Biodiversity Production Water Cycling/Hydrologic Regime Nutrient Cycling/Biogeochemical Processes
Health
Maintain trophic cycles, soil building
Are Coastal Wetlands Crossing a Tipping Point? Example
Smooth Response
Unlikely
Extent of Climate Change
Ecosystem Response
Ecosystem Response
Critical thresholds can be breached even if conditions change gradually Abrupt Response
Likely Threshold
Extent of Climate Change Slide adapted from Carlos Duarte
DK 11
Tidal Wetlands Long-standing Concerns Degradation Conversion and Loss Growing Concerns
Sea Level & Salinity Rise Storms
Sediment budget Living Shorelines 2008
DK 12
Angola Neck – Rehoboth Bay, DE
Summer, 2006
Sudden Wetland Dieback – Marsh Browning
Severely Stressed 35%
Minimally or Not Stressed 17%
Moderately Stressed 48%
Slide from Chris Bason and Amy Jacobs
Changes in Wetland Function Natural versus Restored Benefits (functions)
Reference Wetland Condition
Existing Wetlands
Restored Wetlands
time
Slide adapted from Amy Jacobs (DNREC)
Tidal Wetland Vulnerability? Freshwater Tidal Marshes • Salinity Rise Causes Conversion to Brackish • Barriers to Landward Migration • Others: Tidal Range, Seasonal Drying/Wetting
Salt Marshes • Sea Level Rise, Subsidence and Sediment Deficits Lead to Drowning • Storms and Wind Wave Erosion • Barriers to Landward Migration • Others: Seasonal Wetting/Drying, Invasives
Options? Living Shorelines
Delaware Estuary Living Shorelines
Elevation Increase %
120 100 80 60 40 20 0 Log
Double Log
Shellbag + Log
Treatment
Control
Tidal Wetlands Adaptation Planning Goal: Maximize long-term ecosystem health and resiliency
Wetland Tough Choices • Where will wetlands will be converted to open water? • Where can we save them ? • Where is strategic retreat the best option?
DK 18
Bivalves of the Delaware
11 Other Species of Freshwater Unionid Mussels
Corbicula fluminea Elliptio complanata
Rangia cuneata
Mya arenaria
Geukensia demissa
Mytilus edulis Ensis directus
Mercenaria DRBC mercenaria Crassostrea virginica
DK 19
Shifts in Species Ranges of Freshwater Mussels Patchy, Impaired
Elliptio complanata
Rare
Extirpated
Strophitus undulatus
Alasmidonta heterodon State Conservation Status NJ
Scientific Name
Scientific Name
ALASMIDONTA HETERODON
DWARF WEDGEMUSSEL
Endangered
Endangered
Critically Imperiled
ALASMIDONTA UNDULATA
TRIANGLE FLOATER
Extirpated ?
Threatened
Vulnerable
ALASMIDONTA VARICOSA
BROOK FLOATER
Endangered
Endangered
Imperiled
ANODONTA IMPLICATA
ALEWIFE FLOATER
Extremely Rare
no data
Extirpated ?
ELLIPTIO COMPLANATA
EASTERN ELLIPTIO
common
common
Secure
LAMPSILIS CARIOSA
YELLOW LAMPMUSSEL
Endangered
Threatened
Vulnerable
LAMPSILIS RADIATA
EASTERN LAMPMUSSEL
Endangered
Threatened
Imperiled
LASMIGONA SUBVIRIDIS
GREEN FLOATER
no data
Endangered
Imperiled
LEPTODEA OCHRACEA
TIDEWATER MUCKET
Endangered
Threatened
Extirpated ?
LIGUMIA NASUTA
EASTERN PONDMUSSEL
Endangered
Threatened
Critically Imperiled
MARGARITIFERA MARGARITIFERA
EASTERN PEARLSHELL
no data
no data
Imperiled
PYGANODON CATARACTA
EASTERN FLOATER
no data
no data
Vulnerable
STROPHITUS UNDULATUS
SQUAWFOOT
Extremely Rare
Species of Concern
Apparently Secure
DE
PA
Figure from Cummings and Mayer (1992).
Freshwater Mussel Larvae Require Fish Hosts
Larvae are brooded in the ctenidia
Most mussels depend on particular fish species
Shifts in Species Ranges of Freshwater Mussels Patchy, Impaired
Elliptio complanata
Rare
Extirpated
Strophitus undulatus
Alasmidonta heterodon State Conservation Status NJ
Scientific Name
Scientific Name
ALASMIDONTA HETERODON
DWARF WEDGEMUSSEL
Endangered
Endangered
Critically Imperiled
ALASMIDONTA UNDULATA
TRIANGLE FLOATER
Extirpated ?
Threatened
Vulnerable
ALASMIDONTA VARICOSA
BROOK FLOATER
Endangered
Endangered
Imperiled
ANODONTA IMPLICATA
ALEWIFE FLOATER
Extremely Rare
no data
Extirpated ?
ELLIPTIO COMPLANATA
EASTERN ELLIPTIO
common
common
Secure
LAMPSILIS CARIOSA
YELLOW LAMPMUSSEL
Endangered
Threatened
Vulnerable
LAMPSILIS RADIATA
EASTERN LAMPMUSSEL
Endangered
Threatened
Imperiled
LASMIGONA SUBVIRIDIS
GREEN FLOATER
no data
Endangered
Imperiled
LEPTODEA OCHRACEA
TIDEWATER MUCKET
Endangered
Threatened
Extirpated ?
LIGUMIA NASUTA
EASTERN PONDMUSSEL
Endangered
Threatened
Critically Imperiled
MARGARITIFERA MARGARITIFERA
EASTERN PEARLSHELL
no data
no data
Imperiled
PYGANODON CATARACTA
EASTERN FLOATER
no data
no data
Vulnerable
STROPHITUS UNDULATUS
SQUAWFOOT
Extremely Rare
Species of Concern
Apparently Secure
DE
PA
Oyster Disease and Salinity
Salt Line Location
From Rutgers HSRL From DRBC
www.livingclassrooms.org/lbo/dermo/oyster2.jpg
Oyster Management Can they maintain (or be maintained) until they might see more optimal conditions? 1000
No Help With Help
1758
900
DK 25
Longer Growing Season
800
Options? Shellplanting2 Recruitment
Number per Bushel
700 600
Events
500 400
Intertidal Niche Expansion?
300 200 100
Point of No Return
Oyster
Spat
Mean Oyster
Mean Spat
Historical data from Rutgers Haskin Shellfish Laboratory
5
7
2060
Year
3
2030
53 55 57 59 61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 1
Today
0
BrandywineRiver, River,PA PA Brandywine
Elliptio complanata
Delaware Estuary Marshes
Geukensia demissa
Delaware Bay Oysters
Crassostrea virginica DK 26
Bivalve Vulnerability? Oyster Reefs • Salinity Driven Disease Epizootics • Others: Food, pH
Salt marsh Mussel Beds • Loss and Degradation of Wetland Habitat • Others: Food, PH
Freshwater Mussel Beds • Range Shifts with No Dispersal • Habitat Degradation (T, salinity, pH, fish hosts)
Nature’s Benefits Bivalve Shellfish are “Ecosystem Engineers”
CTUIR Freshwater Mussel Project DK 28
Water Filtration Benefits Start No mussels
8 adult mussels
Slide from R. Neves, VA Tech
DK 29
Water Filtration Benefits Later No mussels
8 adult mussels
Slide from R. Neves, VA Tech
DK 30
Water Filtration Benefits Population-Level Water Processing Billions of Liters per Hour
60 50 40 30 20 10 0
Elliptio complanata
Geukensia demissa
Crassostrea virginica
Nature’s Benefits (Natural Capital)
Livelihoods Shellfish Tough Decisions Which species and associated benefits can be Lives sustained? Which should we invest in? (since funding will always be limited) Health
Livelihoods
Health
Climate Change in a Complex Landscape The Working River 4th largest US urban center world’s largest freshwater port 70% of east coast oil past and present industrial center
The Living Estuary Water fowl, finfish, shellfish Horseshoe crab population Extensive tidal marshes
DK 33
Climate & Other Changes Together DK 34
•Marcellus Shale •Ecological Flows •Spills, NRDA •Dredging Added Complexity •Withdrawals •Wind Farms •Land Use Change •Development •Emerging Pollutants
Many Other Issues Timing of Shorebird Migration and Horseshoe Crab Spawning
Website slides are from the Delaware Shorebird Project and the Horseshoe Crab Conservation Network
Principle: “Restore” for the Future • Forecast future sustainable states (winners and losers) • Smart “restoration” = climate adaptation • Shift policy and management paradigms 1000 900
No Help With Help
1758
800
Number per Bushel
700 600 500 400 300 200 100
Point of No Return
0 53 55 57 59 61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 1 3 5 7 Year
2030
Today
Historical fromMean Rutgers Laboratory Oyster data Spat OysterHaskin MeanShellfish Spat
Principle: Maximize Bang for the Buck
DK 36
Next Steps? 1. Science Strengthen adaptation plan with more rigorous monitoring and predictive modeling for likely consequences
2. Local Relevance Develop high resolution geospatial–based planning tools that guide local actions, nested within a watershed-basis
3. Nature’s Benefits Develop and use decision tools with “bang for the buck” estimates of environmental outcomes for various adaptation tactics
4. Collaboration Implement a coordinated strategy for advancing science, policy and on-the-ground actions
- End -
