Plan Bay Area Transit Capital Ne

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TFWG Item 3b

TO: Transit Finance Working Group FR: Glen Tepke

DATE: October 5, 2011 W. I.

RE: Plan Bay Area Transit Capital Needs Assessment Update Draft preliminary transit capital need projections for Plan Bay Area were presented to the TFWG at their meeting in April. This memo summarizes recently completed revised transit capital need projections. The revisions reflect: •

Additional work to update and refine transit capital inventory data, primarily for BART and SFMTA.



The addition of projections for SMART and Rio Vista (Marin Transit was added in the preliminary projections).



Refinement of the methodology used by the TERM model to project capital rehabilitation costs.

An additional revision that has not yet been completed is the transfer of ferry assets and capital needs from Vallejo to WETA to reflect the transfer of responsibility for ferry operations and maintenance from Vallejo to WETA. As in T2035, the transit capital need projections are based on the Regional Transit Capital Inventory (RTCI) originally developed for T2035. The original data was updated by operators for the Plan Bay Area projections. Unlike T2035, the projections were produced using FTA’s Transit Economics Requirement Model (TERM), a capital planning tool used by FTA for national-level projections, including the 2009 Rail Modernization Report and the 2010 National State of Good Repair Assessment. We used TERM as an intermediate step toward implementation of “TERM Lite,” a more user-friendly version of TERM that FTA is developing for use by operators and MPOs. Projections Summary The revised transit capital need projections for Plan Bay Area compared to the preliminary projections and the projections for T2035 are summarized in Attachment A. As shown, the total capital need estimate ranges from $37.0 billion to $46.5 billion, as compared to $40.3 billion in

Transportation 2035. The figures represent the total cost of replacing and rehabilitating current transit capital assets over the 28-year planning period under two alternative scenarios for the state of good repair (SGR) of the system. This includes major vehicle replacement projects coming up over the next decade, including all of BART’s and Caltrain’s railcars, and all of SFMTA’s trolleys. Capital costs of expansion and enhancement projects are not included. Alternative SGR Scenarios The projected needs consist of a one-time backlog of deferred replacement (assets that are already past their useful life at the beginning of the planning period) and rehab needs, plus normal, recurring replacement and rehab needs that come up when assets reach the end of their life or are due for rehabilitation during the planning period. The estimated cost of the eliminating the backlog is $5.2 billion (2010 $). Attachment B summarizes the backlog by operator and asset category. For purposes of the projections, State of Good Repair is defined in terms of the size of the backlog of deferred replacements and rehabs. Eliminating the backlog and performing all replacements and rehabs on schedule would result in an ideal SGR. The sizable backlog indicates the system is currently in a less-than-ideal SGR. The two scenarios represent alternative levels of SGR that can be achieved by reinvestment in the system, i.e., alternative definitions of transit capital need. In terms of mechanics, they differ in how the backlog is addressed. Attain Ideal SGR in 10 Years. The backlog is eliminated by replacing over-age assets and performing deferred rehabs over the first ten years of the projection period, and all normal recurring replacements and rehabs are performed on schedule. Under this scenario, the system would attain an ideal SGR in 2023 and would be maintained at that level through 2040. The scenario used to define transit capital needs in T2035 was equivalent to this scenario. Maintain Current SGR. The rate of replacements and rehabs is constrained so that the dollar value of the backlog in 2040 is approximately the same as it was in 2013 (in constant dollars), i.e., the status quo scenario. Under this scenario, some assets would remain in service beyond their useful lives, and some rehabs would continue to be deferred, so the SGR of the system remains approximately the same throughout the planning period. Attachment D details the projected needs under this scenario by agency and asset type. Performance Measures The performance measure for the transit capital program in the RTP is the Average Age of Assets as a Percentage of Useful Life (AAAPUL), with a target of reducing the AAAPUL to 50%, which represents an ideal state of good repair. In developing the preliminary need projections, we have found that the AAAPUL is strongly affected by long-lived, high-cost assets that are rehabilitated but not replaced during the projection period under any scenario, such as the BART tube and elevated guideway. Therefore, we are also presenting results for other measures of the SGR of the system, including:



The dollar value of the backlog of assets that are past their useful life or have deferred rehab work as described above; and



The percentage of assets (weighted by replacement value) over their useful life (PAOUL).

Staff will provide charts at the TFWG’s meeting that illustrate the results for each of these measures under the Attain SGR in 10 Years and Maintain Backlog scenarios, as well as other measures that can be estimated using TERM, including the condition rating of assets (estimated based primarily on age because we do not have actual condition data in the RTCI).

J:\COMMITTE\Partnership\Partnership TFWG\_Transit Finance WG\_2011\11 Memos\10_October\03b RTP Tansit Capital Update.doc

Attachment A. Plan Bay Area Transit Capital Need Projections 2013-2040 Year-of-Expenditure $ Millions T2035

Plan Bay Area - Preliminary 10-Year SGR Maintain Backlog

Plan Bay Area Revised 10-Year SGR Maintain Backlog

Large Operators AC Transit BART Caltrain GGBHTD SamTrans SFMTA VTA Subtotal Large Operators

$1,745.8 15,119.0 3,455.6 1,046.8 1,018.4 11,388.2 4,374.4 $38,148.2

$3,367.7 $15,009.8 $3,724.1 $1,215.6 $1,477.1 $13,641.8 $4,330.8 $42,766.9

$2,606.9 $12,458.4 $2,006.2 $892.3 $1,126.9 $11,286.4 $3,074.6 $33,451.8

$3,353.9 16,476.5 3,790.4 1,229.5 1,468.2 12,724.8 4,312.1 $43,355.3

$2,730.0 13,667.9 2,010.6 946.7 1,174.9 10,762.3 3,185.8 $34,478.2

Small Operators ACE CCCTA ECCTA Fairfield LAVTA Marin County Napa Petaluma Rio Vista Santa Rosa SMART SolTrans Sonoma County Union City Vacaville Westcat WETA (AOF) Subtotal Small Operators

$453.0 272.2 121.1 125.2 127.4 N/A 56.0 13.7 N/A 116.8 N/A 278.5 169.3 43.8 147.9 122.9 98.8 $2,146.6

$153.7 $411.7 $197.1 $181.5 $217.4 $42.8 $145.3 $34.1 N/A $127.1 N/A $557.7 $266.3 $63.5 $70.1 $166.0 $181.3 $2,815.7

$138.4 $348.5 $172.7 $118.6 $181.3 $41.1 $87.3 $28.3 N/A $109.2 N/A $318.6 $181.6 $59.9 $45.5 $108.6 $144.7 $2,084.3

$154.6 414.7 197.4 183.8 218.4 42.8 145.4 34.1 22.1 127.3 237.4 560.4 267.5 63.4 68.1 157.2 181.1 $3,075.6

$135.4 358.9 186.8 124.9 194.4 41.1 100.7 28.7 13.9 111.5 205.5 405.2 198.5 59.9 45.9 115.3 151.0 $2,477.5

$38.7

$28.6

$41.4

$31.5

$45,621.3

$35,564.7

$46,472.3

$36,987.3

Clipper Total

Included above $40,294.8

Attachment B. Backlog By Operator by Asset Category (Estimated as of end of 2012) Transit System

Total

AC Transit Altamont Commuter Express BART Caltrain Central Contra Costa Transit Authority Clipper ECCTA Fairfield GGBHTD LAVTA Marin County Transit District Napa Petaluma Rio Vista Sam Trans Santa Rosa SFMTA SMART Sonoma Union City Vacaville Vallejo VTA Water Emergency Transportation Authority (WETA) WestCAT

167,527,403 11,971,399 3,071,457,947 306,763,072 17,368,270 2,244,078 239,638 1,015,930 73,479,223 452,579 49,158 1,872,152 138,003 5,067,698 42,500,884 1,201,529 1,210,732,478 298,474 20,676,235 400,340 60,931,659 163,659,489 788,232 12,954,078

Total

5,173,789,947

qrySGRBacklog_ByOperatorByCategory Facilities Guideway Elements Stations 111,697,666 2,483,045 11,569,253 40,484 277,516,991 676,324,497 505,948,125 4,308,195 111,100,012 133,731,528 11,898,518 27,716 1,015,930 20,809,759 195,200 49,158 1,852,319 66,212 1,066,779 21,203,162 410,341 307,018,851 173,013 19,496,516 382,959 14,921,845 126,039,326 391,487 12,002,445 944,113,642

6,765,004

479,786

26,912,481 125,461

1,181,067 1,609,640 366,434

824,864,382

39,977,966 3,521,133 509,131,673 250,676 38,809,635 10,283,127 -

1,244,177,392

Systems 47,353,834 291,488 1,181,311,221 29,007,503 5,469,752 2,244,078 4,734,272 53,979 20,595,366 704,499 336,500,108 794,574 17,381 5,659,292 19,213,211 30,311 847,450 1,654,828,319

Vehicles 5,992,858 70,173 430,357,112 28,615,834 211,922 1,192,222 257,379 19,833 17,812 702,356 86,689 31,169,365 134,470 359,820 6,514,185 104,182 505,806,213

Attachment C. Plan Bay Area Revised Transit Capital Need Projections, 2013 - 2040, 10-Year SGR Scenario Year-of-Expenditure $ Sum of 2013-2040 Transit System AC Transit Altamont Commuter Express BART Caltrain Central Contra Costa Transit Authority Clipper ECCTA Fairfield GGBHTD LAVTA Marin County Transit District Napa Petaluma Rio Vista Sam Trans Santa Rosa SFMTA SMART Sonoma Union City Vacaville Vallejo VTA Water Emergency Transportation Authority (WETA) WestCAT Grand Total

Category Facilities 1,501,960,411 17,546,459 1,544,157,966 151,832,697 101,082,325 23,036,864 76,599,275 216,740,612 23,115,422 1,704,531 51,704,484 4,721,049 4,483,102 511,775,014 11,199,717 1,916,519,188 12,106,424 106,987,347 15,916,622 90,317,491 597,451,749 11,548,490 46,590,558 7,039,097,797

Guideway Elements

3,478,402,022 741,876,700

79,961,982

Stations 36,533,407 5,666,278 1,923,434,271 1,547,413,356

10,674,356 478,501,668 16,371,333

141,045,182 67,840 6,799,851 4,559,531 3,956,581 47,784,674 3,786,596 1,406,684,709 22,991,036 3,561,195 7,955,469 170,863,404 389,797,774 15,974,597

6,047,078,469

5,738,875,752

10,622,210

1,191,765,542 38,902,658

Systems 296,785,017 12,606,225 4,559,894,954 483,765,905 33,202,925 41,365,868 1,620,535 4,938,693 93,662,511 17,630,742 5,837,495 638,285 30,146 144,832,599 8,589,050 3,974,267,489 129,795,582 20,556,401 1,388,288 3,188,104 29,427,263 907,586,651 371,512 3,991,611 10,775,973,849

Vehicles 1,518,585,710 118,784,784 4,970,575,642 865,507,021 280,415,776 172,733,548 102,284,437 698,124,475 177,550,943 41,078,497 81,010,812 24,201,790 2,960,835 763,844,990 103,714,918 4,235,543,111 56,565,341 116,978,991 58,492,944 41,031,328 259,123,339 1,938,727,237 136,871,195 106,588,930 16,871,296,594

Grand Total 3,353,864,545 154,603,746 16,476,464,855 3,790,395,679 414,701,027 41,365,868 197,390,946 183,822,404 1,229,534,762 218,364,946 42,783,028 145,352,642 34,120,655 22,052,874 1,468,237,277 127,290,280 12,724,780,039 237,370,004 267,513,775 63,442,427 68,091,523 560,405,853 4,312,065,078 181,137,126 157,171,098 46,472,322,461

Attachment D. Plan Bay Area Revised Transit Capital Need Projections, 2013 - 2040, Maintain Backlog Scenario Year-of-Expenditure $ Sum of 2013-2040 Transit System AC Transit Altamont Commuter Express BART Caltrain Central Contra Costa Transit Authority Clipper ECCTA Fairfield GGBHTD LAVTA Marin County Transit District Napa Petaluma Rio Vista Sam Trans Santa Rosa SFMTA SMART Sonoma Union City Vacaville Vallejo VTA Water Emergency Transportation Authority (WETA) WestCAT Grand Total

Category Facilities Guideway Elements Stations 1,096,933,625 15,770,093 645,882,284 3,403,844,798 13,434,274 724,910,372 60,748,726 14,086,431 20,053,216 119,440,015 13,798,418 14,085,197 4,143,207 235,599 350,895,589 1,313,583 1,554,171,943 3,596,365 65,180,912 1,934,038 47,723,822 192,515,187 1,666,707 8,366,882 4,245,976,113

57,108,625

Systems 97,745,807 3,375,446

7,489,416 392,261,146 12,104,122

5,890,325 79,079,002 71,402,703 14,419,234 -

5,844,040,783

271,912,517

10,631,385

1,195,991,455 39,699,463

154,428,733 1,346,046 4,549,871,902 469,305,999 20,411,260 31,540,739 1,509,387 2,582,237 78,758,465 5,797,744 5,884,680 481,626 30,146 80,426,161 7,328,292 3,908,985,048 129,907,622 18,128,847 1,403,628 2,961,433 22,024,416 719,185,318 318,319 1,017,253 10,213,635,299

Vehicles Grand Total 1,478,666,407 2,730,028,764 118,265,072 135,381,211 4,970,575,642 13,667,920,434 799,561,074 2,010,587,165 277,754,990 358,914,975 31,540,739 171,226,110 186,821,928 102,284,437 124,919,889 685,476,465 946,673,894 174,797,855 194,394,017 41,078,497 41,078,497 80,689,123 100,659,000 24,069,871 28,694,704 2,960,835 13,857,966 743,580,206 1,174,901,956 102,844,634 111,486,509 4,024,060,782 10,762,288,229 32,269,019 205,472,469 115,224,780 198,534,539 58,492,944 59,896,572 41,031,328 45,926,799 256,582,641 405,222,999 1,867,398,131 3,185,779,015 136,871,195 150,960,343 105,941,518 115,325,653 16,411,703,555 36,987,268,266