Planalytics TMAI Corn Yield Forecast 08252017
Planalytics GreenReport Corn Yield Forecast ®
Produced in collaboration with TerraMetrics Agriculture, Inc. Issued: August 25, 2017
Corn Yield Forecast Period 7: August 23, 2017
This is the seventh round of ASD, state, and national-level corn yield forecasts for 2017. These forecasts were generated using ten consecutive biweekly normalized differential vegetation index (NDVI) composite images covering the conterminous U.S. at 1-km pixel resolution. The NDVI composites are generated at EROS Data Center using data acquired by the AVHRR sensor on the NOAA-19 satellite from approximately April 4 – August 21, 2017. Models were constructed using 28 years (1989-2016) of historical EROS AVHRR NDVI data and corresponding USDA final estimated crop yield data. All trend yields are 28-year linear projections corresponding with the period of record for the satellite database.
YIELD (BU/AC)
AL AZ AR CA CO DE FL GA ID IL IN IA KS KY LA MD MI MN MS MO MT NE NJ NM NY NC ND OH OK OR PA SC SD TN TX UT VA WA WV WI WY
Avg. Harv. % of U.S. Trend Yield Production Acres Production (1989Rank (2007-2016) (2007-2016) 2016) 270,000 0.25% 28 133.2 31,100 0.05% 37 203.7 561,500 0.73% 19 180.3 146,500 0.21% 29 182.7 1,069,000 1.15% 15 139.8 170,300 0.19% 30 164 41,300 0.04% 39 128.7 335,500 0.40% 24 174.1 99,500 0.14% 32 202.7 12,025,000 15.61% 2 182 5,734,000 6.91% 5 167.6 13,335,000 17.72% 1 190.3 4,061,000 4.09% 7 131 1,324,000 1.43% 14 153.7 545,000 0.66% 22 172.5 420,500 0.43% 23 147.8 2,179,000 2.46% 11 158.7 7,682,000 9.86% 4 184.1 702,500 0.83% 17 174.4 3,135,000 3.31% 10 147.2 48,400 0.04% 38 128.7 9,135,000 11.77% 3 179.1 76,600 0.08% 33 138.3 48,000 0.07% 34 186.1 620,500 0.66% 21 146 842,500 0.71% 20 123.4 2,575,000 2.45% 12 139 3,375,000 4.00% 8 165.3 296,500 0.28% 26 125.8 38,500 0.06% 36 209.4 966,000 1.00% 16 141 320,500 0.25% 27 111.8 4,937,000 5.22% 6 152.9 755,500 0.77% 18 146.9 1,952,000 1.96% 13 135 25,400 0.03% 40 173.9 342,500 0.32% 25 134.2 105,000 0.17% 31 224.5 32,000 0.03% 41 139.9 3,117,000 3.59% 9 162.1 59,200 0.06% 35 147
US
83,535,800
Region
100.00%
----
168.2
Last Year's Yield (2016) 120 215 171 185 137 170 145 165 188 197 173 203 142 159 165 152 157 193 166 163 100 178 145 150 129 129 158 159 121 230 129 127 161 151 127 175 148 235 145 178 147 174.6
TMAI/KARS TMAI/KARS TMAI/KARS TMAI/KARS TMAI/KARS TMAI/KARS USDA TMAI/KARS TMAI/KARS USDA USDA USDA Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast (5/31/17) (6/14/17) (6/28/17) (7/12/17) (7/26/17) (8/9/17) (8/10/17) (8/23/17) (9/6/17) (9/12/17) (10/12/17) (11/9/17) 134.4 135.3 137.7 138.2 141.7 145.4 165 152.4 211.5 211.7 207.3 206.4 207.7 208.7 --211.7 184.6 185.3 185.1 185.1 185.4 185.4 182 185.4 182.1 181.6 181.3 181.1 181.1 181.8 162 178 140.4 141.5 140.6 138 137.7 138.7 145 142.4 167 170 167.7 166.2 170.2 171.2 190 176.3 131 132.6 134.7 137.3 137.8 138.9 --139.5 171.1 172.1 172.9 173.5 175.7 178 178 178.7 203.6 204.5 204.8 203.4 202.9 201.5 200 200.6 179 178.5 179.6 179.3 179.2 181.3 188 182.6 164 164.6 161.9 161 160.4 163 173 166.8 190.3 188.9 189.8 187.9 185.3 182 188 183.8 131.4 132 131.6 132.5 133.8 133.7 133 135.8 154.8 156.3 157.9 157.9 157.8 161.2 171 165.3 174.4 175.4 175 175 175.5 176.5 192 183 147.7 148.1 146.5 145.8 147.2 148.1 160 150.8 158.3 157.9 158.3 158 159 158.1 170 159.6 185.3 186 186.7 186 185.8 185.6 183 185.7 175.1 175.8 176.2 176.1 176.8 178.1 185 182.7 147.7 147.9 151.2 153.7 155.7 158.4 162 159.8 128.3 125.3 118.3 113.7 108.7 106.8 --104.9 179.7 179 177.7 176.2 173.5 173.4 183 177.7 138.7 141.8 141.6 140.1 140.3 141 --144.7 186 187 184.8 183.7 181.7 181.8 --183.6 143.2 144.6 144.3 143.7 143.7 146.4 150 147.9 124.3 125.4 130.2 131.5 133.1 134.7 140 136.5 138.6 133.5 130.2 124.9 124.7 124.6 121 125.5 163.5 165.2 165.9 164 164.7 166.2 171 167.5 129.3 126.4 125.3 125.3 126.9 126.8 115 129.6 212.3 213.1 213 213.9 209.5 209 --209 140.8 142.4 143.9 144.3 144.7 148.6 160 154.7 112.2 115.3 120.9 123.5 126.3 128.4 137 131.8 149 143.3 136.4 129.1 125.4 124.5 140 131 148.4 149.5 152.4 153.3 155.7 159 166 163.5 137.4 136.4 135.8 135.2 135.1 136.6 132 141.1 176.9 177.3 177.1 174.7 173 173.1 --173.5 135.3 138.9 138.1 136.5 134.6 136.3 140 137.8 228.4 228.4 228.7 228.7 228.3 227.9 220 225 140.5 142 142.3 141.8 140.5 141.2 --142.6 161.4 163.5 163.8 162.9 163 165.3 162 165.2 148.8 149.4 147.7 146.3 145 145.3 --148.2 167.4
166.9
© 2017 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
166.6
165.3
164.6
164.9
169.5
167.0
www.planalytics.com | 800.882.5881
Planalytics GreenReport Corn Yield Forecast ®
Produced in collaboration with TerraMetrics Agriculture, Inc.
Corn Yield Forecast Period 7: August 23, 2017 TOP 10 2017 YIELD CHANGE vs (bu/ac) PREVIOUS CORN STATES
CHANGE vs USDA TREND AUGUST 10th
Iowa
183.8
+1.8
6.5 below
188
Illinois
182.6
+1.3
0.6 above
188
Nebraska
177.7
+4.3
1.4 below
183
Minnesota
185.7
+0.1
1.6 above
183
Indiana
166.8
+3.8
0.8 below
173
South Dakota
131.0
+6.5
21.9 below
140
Kansas
135.8
+2.1
4.8 above
133
Ohio
167.5
+1.3
2.2 above
171
Wisconsin
165.2
-0.1
3.1 above
162
Missouri
159.8
+1.4
12.6 above
162
U.S.
167.0
+2.1
1.2 below
169.5
MAP 1: Mid-August 2017 Compared to Previous Period
OBSERVATIONS •Planalytics’ satellite greenness-based estimate for the US corn crop increased 2.1 bu/ac from our forecast released two weeks ago and now sits at 167 bu/ac. This value is 1.2 bu/ac below the trend yield of 168.2 bu/ac and 7.6 bu/ac below last year’s record crop (2016 final yield: 174.6 bu/ac). For comparison, Farm Futures forecast based on this week’s USDA crop condition ratings ranges from 165-167.4 bu/ac, in relatively good agreement with our number.
MAP 2: Mid-August 2017 vs. 2016 Final Yield
•In top-producer Iowa, after dealing with dry conditions most of the growing season, corn fields in the western and central parts of the state received 2-5+” of rain over the last two weeks, which is just what the crop needed to have a strong finish. About half of final yield is now locked in on the cob, the recent moisture and expected favorable temperatures will allow plants to keep filling kernels as they finish up. •In (#2) Illinois, while the state generally experienced better growing conditions than IA this summer, it received much less moisture over the last two weeks and is closing in faster on black layer (physiological maturity. More than 60% of final yield has now been made. If this weekend’s rain chances fail to verify, a dry outlook moving into September will put many IL corn fields on a fast track to maturity, potentially limiting grain fill potential. •In addition to western IA, the biggest beneficiaries of mid-August rainfall have been NE (#3; 12% of US production) and SD (#6; 5%). Both states saw a big increase in our projections. In #4 MN, the biggest issue at this point is getting the crop to maturity before a killing freeze occurs. Moving east, sustained dry conditions have continued to improve crop prospects in IN (#5; 7% of US production) and OH (#8; 4%)
MAP 3: Mid-August 2017 Compared to Trend Yield
SUMMARY: • Based on satellite Greenness and USDA crop conditions, the US corn crop has rebounded to have near-trend yield potential following big improvements to the Western Corn Belt crop. The near-term outlook for the entire Midwest is mostly dry with mild temperatures and is generally non-threatening at this late stage in the growing season, suggesting a straightforward finish to the crop although northern growers are concerned about early freeze on a crop this is lagging. Overall we give the US corn crop a slightly up arrow as it makes its way through the grain fill period. Our next release in two weeks will be Planalytics’ final corn yield forecast update for the 2017 growing season. © 2017 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
www.planalytics.com | 800.882.5881
Produced in collaboration with TerraMetrics Agriculture, Inc. Issued: August 25, 2017
Corn Yield Forecast Period 7: August 23, 2017
This is the seventh round of ASD, state, and national-level corn yield forecasts for 2017. These forecasts were generated using ten consecutive biweekly normalized differential vegetation index (NDVI) composite images covering the conterminous U.S. at 1-km pixel resolution. The NDVI composites are generated at EROS Data Center using data acquired by the AVHRR sensor on the NOAA-19 satellite from approximately April 4 – August 21, 2017. Models were constructed using 28 years (1989-2016) of historical EROS AVHRR NDVI data and corresponding USDA final estimated crop yield data. All trend yields are 28-year linear projections corresponding with the period of record for the satellite database.
YIELD (BU/AC)
AL AZ AR CA CO DE FL GA ID IL IN IA KS KY LA MD MI MN MS MO MT NE NJ NM NY NC ND OH OK OR PA SC SD TN TX UT VA WA WV WI WY
Avg. Harv. % of U.S. Trend Yield Production Acres Production (1989Rank (2007-2016) (2007-2016) 2016) 270,000 0.25% 28 133.2 31,100 0.05% 37 203.7 561,500 0.73% 19 180.3 146,500 0.21% 29 182.7 1,069,000 1.15% 15 139.8 170,300 0.19% 30 164 41,300 0.04% 39 128.7 335,500 0.40% 24 174.1 99,500 0.14% 32 202.7 12,025,000 15.61% 2 182 5,734,000 6.91% 5 167.6 13,335,000 17.72% 1 190.3 4,061,000 4.09% 7 131 1,324,000 1.43% 14 153.7 545,000 0.66% 22 172.5 420,500 0.43% 23 147.8 2,179,000 2.46% 11 158.7 7,682,000 9.86% 4 184.1 702,500 0.83% 17 174.4 3,135,000 3.31% 10 147.2 48,400 0.04% 38 128.7 9,135,000 11.77% 3 179.1 76,600 0.08% 33 138.3 48,000 0.07% 34 186.1 620,500 0.66% 21 146 842,500 0.71% 20 123.4 2,575,000 2.45% 12 139 3,375,000 4.00% 8 165.3 296,500 0.28% 26 125.8 38,500 0.06% 36 209.4 966,000 1.00% 16 141 320,500 0.25% 27 111.8 4,937,000 5.22% 6 152.9 755,500 0.77% 18 146.9 1,952,000 1.96% 13 135 25,400 0.03% 40 173.9 342,500 0.32% 25 134.2 105,000 0.17% 31 224.5 32,000 0.03% 41 139.9 3,117,000 3.59% 9 162.1 59,200 0.06% 35 147
US
83,535,800
Region
100.00%
----
168.2
Last Year's Yield (2016) 120 215 171 185 137 170 145 165 188 197 173 203 142 159 165 152 157 193 166 163 100 178 145 150 129 129 158 159 121 230 129 127 161 151 127 175 148 235 145 178 147 174.6
TMAI/KARS TMAI/KARS TMAI/KARS TMAI/KARS TMAI/KARS TMAI/KARS USDA TMAI/KARS TMAI/KARS USDA USDA USDA Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast (5/31/17) (6/14/17) (6/28/17) (7/12/17) (7/26/17) (8/9/17) (8/10/17) (8/23/17) (9/6/17) (9/12/17) (10/12/17) (11/9/17) 134.4 135.3 137.7 138.2 141.7 145.4 165 152.4 211.5 211.7 207.3 206.4 207.7 208.7 --211.7 184.6 185.3 185.1 185.1 185.4 185.4 182 185.4 182.1 181.6 181.3 181.1 181.1 181.8 162 178 140.4 141.5 140.6 138 137.7 138.7 145 142.4 167 170 167.7 166.2 170.2 171.2 190 176.3 131 132.6 134.7 137.3 137.8 138.9 --139.5 171.1 172.1 172.9 173.5 175.7 178 178 178.7 203.6 204.5 204.8 203.4 202.9 201.5 200 200.6 179 178.5 179.6 179.3 179.2 181.3 188 182.6 164 164.6 161.9 161 160.4 163 173 166.8 190.3 188.9 189.8 187.9 185.3 182 188 183.8 131.4 132 131.6 132.5 133.8 133.7 133 135.8 154.8 156.3 157.9 157.9 157.8 161.2 171 165.3 174.4 175.4 175 175 175.5 176.5 192 183 147.7 148.1 146.5 145.8 147.2 148.1 160 150.8 158.3 157.9 158.3 158 159 158.1 170 159.6 185.3 186 186.7 186 185.8 185.6 183 185.7 175.1 175.8 176.2 176.1 176.8 178.1 185 182.7 147.7 147.9 151.2 153.7 155.7 158.4 162 159.8 128.3 125.3 118.3 113.7 108.7 106.8 --104.9 179.7 179 177.7 176.2 173.5 173.4 183 177.7 138.7 141.8 141.6 140.1 140.3 141 --144.7 186 187 184.8 183.7 181.7 181.8 --183.6 143.2 144.6 144.3 143.7 143.7 146.4 150 147.9 124.3 125.4 130.2 131.5 133.1 134.7 140 136.5 138.6 133.5 130.2 124.9 124.7 124.6 121 125.5 163.5 165.2 165.9 164 164.7 166.2 171 167.5 129.3 126.4 125.3 125.3 126.9 126.8 115 129.6 212.3 213.1 213 213.9 209.5 209 --209 140.8 142.4 143.9 144.3 144.7 148.6 160 154.7 112.2 115.3 120.9 123.5 126.3 128.4 137 131.8 149 143.3 136.4 129.1 125.4 124.5 140 131 148.4 149.5 152.4 153.3 155.7 159 166 163.5 137.4 136.4 135.8 135.2 135.1 136.6 132 141.1 176.9 177.3 177.1 174.7 173 173.1 --173.5 135.3 138.9 138.1 136.5 134.6 136.3 140 137.8 228.4 228.4 228.7 228.7 228.3 227.9 220 225 140.5 142 142.3 141.8 140.5 141.2 --142.6 161.4 163.5 163.8 162.9 163 165.3 162 165.2 148.8 149.4 147.7 146.3 145 145.3 --148.2 167.4
166.9
© 2017 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
166.6
165.3
164.6
164.9
169.5
167.0
www.planalytics.com | 800.882.5881
Planalytics GreenReport Corn Yield Forecast ®
Produced in collaboration with TerraMetrics Agriculture, Inc.
Corn Yield Forecast Period 7: August 23, 2017 TOP 10 2017 YIELD CHANGE vs (bu/ac) PREVIOUS CORN STATES
CHANGE vs USDA TREND AUGUST 10th
Iowa
183.8
+1.8
6.5 below
188
Illinois
182.6
+1.3
0.6 above
188
Nebraska
177.7
+4.3
1.4 below
183
Minnesota
185.7
+0.1
1.6 above
183
Indiana
166.8
+3.8
0.8 below
173
South Dakota
131.0
+6.5
21.9 below
140
Kansas
135.8
+2.1
4.8 above
133
Ohio
167.5
+1.3
2.2 above
171
Wisconsin
165.2
-0.1
3.1 above
162
Missouri
159.8
+1.4
12.6 above
162
U.S.
167.0
+2.1
1.2 below
169.5
MAP 1: Mid-August 2017 Compared to Previous Period
OBSERVATIONS •Planalytics’ satellite greenness-based estimate for the US corn crop increased 2.1 bu/ac from our forecast released two weeks ago and now sits at 167 bu/ac. This value is 1.2 bu/ac below the trend yield of 168.2 bu/ac and 7.6 bu/ac below last year’s record crop (2016 final yield: 174.6 bu/ac). For comparison, Farm Futures forecast based on this week’s USDA crop condition ratings ranges from 165-167.4 bu/ac, in relatively good agreement with our number.
MAP 2: Mid-August 2017 vs. 2016 Final Yield
•In top-producer Iowa, after dealing with dry conditions most of the growing season, corn fields in the western and central parts of the state received 2-5+” of rain over the last two weeks, which is just what the crop needed to have a strong finish. About half of final yield is now locked in on the cob, the recent moisture and expected favorable temperatures will allow plants to keep filling kernels as they finish up. •In (#2) Illinois, while the state generally experienced better growing conditions than IA this summer, it received much less moisture over the last two weeks and is closing in faster on black layer (physiological maturity. More than 60% of final yield has now been made. If this weekend’s rain chances fail to verify, a dry outlook moving into September will put many IL corn fields on a fast track to maturity, potentially limiting grain fill potential. •In addition to western IA, the biggest beneficiaries of mid-August rainfall have been NE (#3; 12% of US production) and SD (#6; 5%). Both states saw a big increase in our projections. In #4 MN, the biggest issue at this point is getting the crop to maturity before a killing freeze occurs. Moving east, sustained dry conditions have continued to improve crop prospects in IN (#5; 7% of US production) and OH (#8; 4%)
MAP 3: Mid-August 2017 Compared to Trend Yield
SUMMARY: • Based on satellite Greenness and USDA crop conditions, the US corn crop has rebounded to have near-trend yield potential following big improvements to the Western Corn Belt crop. The near-term outlook for the entire Midwest is mostly dry with mild temperatures and is generally non-threatening at this late stage in the growing season, suggesting a straightforward finish to the crop although northern growers are concerned about early freeze on a crop this is lagging. Overall we give the US corn crop a slightly up arrow as it makes its way through the grain fill period. Our next release in two weeks will be Planalytics’ final corn yield forecast update for the 2017 growing season. © 2017 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
www.planalytics.com | 800.882.5881
