Planalytics TMAI Soybean Yield Forecast 08252017
Planalytics GreenReport Soybean Yield Forecast ®
Produced in collaboration with TerraMetrics Agriculture, Inc. Issued: August 25, 2017
Soybean Yield Forecast Period 7: August 23, 2017
This is the seventh round of ASD, state, and national-level soybean yield forecasts for 2017. These forecasts were generated using ten consecutive biweekly normalized differential vegetation index (NDVI) composite images covering the conterminous U.S. at 1-km pixel resolution. The NDVI composites are generated at EROS Data Center using data acquired by the AVHRR sensor on the NOAA-19 satellite from approximately April 4 to August 21, 2017. This year’s models were constructed using 28 years (1989-2016) of historical EROS AVHRR NDVI data and corresponding USDA final estimated crop yield data. All trend yields are 28-year linear projections corresponding with the period of record for the satellite database.
YIELD (BU/AC)
Region
Avg. Harv. % of U.S. Last Year's TMAI/KARS TMAI/KARS TMAI/KARS TMAI/KARS TMAI/KARS TMAI/KARS USDA TMAI/KARS TMAI/KARS USDA USDA Production Trend Yield Acres Production Yield Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Rank (1989-2016) (2007-2016) (2007-2016) (2016) (5/31/17) (6/14/17) (6/28/17) (7/12/17) (7/26/17) (8/9/17) (8/10/17) (8/23/17) (9/6/17) (9/12/17) (10/12/17)
AL
374,000
0.41%
22
38.7
32
38.7
39.2
40.3
40.6
40.7
42.9
44
44.8
AR
3,163,000
3.89%
10
45.7
47
46.4
47
47.6
48.3
48.5
48.7
49
49.3
DE
172,200
0.19%
26
40.2
41.5
40.5
41
40.7
40.5
40.4
42.3
50
44.3
FL
25,900
0.03%
29
38.2
36
36.9
36.9
37.3
38.1
38.2
39.2
---
40
GA
281,500
0.28%
24
35.9
30
34.2
34.6
36.2
36.5
37.1
39.2
44
41.2
IL
9,266,000
13.68%
2
52.9
59
52.7
52.6
53.3
53.5
53.5
54.6
58
55.2
IN
5,317,000
7.72%
4
52.2
57.5
52
51.9
51.6
51.2
50.9
51.4
55
52.4
IA
9,437,000
14.18%
1
53.8
60.5
54
53.9
54.6
53.7
53.1
52.9
56
53.6
KS
3,671,000
3.86%
11
37.5
48
36.8
36.6
37.1
36.9
36.8
37.6
41
39.3
KY
1,524,000
1.92%
15
46
50
45.9
46.2
47
47.4
47.4
48.2
52
49.3
LA
1,070,000
1.38%
18
47.4
48.5
49.2
49.4
49.5
49.8
50.1
51.5
53
52.3
MD
477,000
0.55%
21
41.1
41.5
41.2
41.4
41.1
40.9
40.7
41.4
46
42.9
MI
1,968,000
2.52%
12
45
50.5
44.9
45.3
45.4
45.6
45.9
46.1
49
46.5
MN
7,067,000
9.05%
3
45.9
52.5
46
46.5
47.3
46.9
46.8
47.6
49
48.7
MS
1,963,000
2.51%
13
47.7
48
47.9
48.1
48.3
48.2
48.3
49.3
52
50.3
MO
5,176,000
6.09%
7
42.2
49
42.5
42.8
43.8
44.6
45.5
46.8
49
48.1
NE
4,892,000
7.59%
5
57
61
57.3
57.4
56.7
56.1
55.5
56
58
57.1
NJ
92,100
0.10%
28
36.2
36
36.1
36.7
36.4
36
35.9
37.8
40
39.1
NC
1,586,000
1.53%
17
34.5
35
34.4
34.6
35.5
36
36.2
37
38
37.4
ND
4,567,000
4.49%
9
35.5
41.5
35.8
32.9
31.5
30.7
29.9
30.7
33
31.7
OH
4,573,000
6.46%
6
51
54.5
51
51.5
51.7
51.2
50.6
51.1
53
52
OK
347,500
0.27%
25
25.3
29
25.6
25.8
25.9
26
25.8
26
27
28.3
PA
508,000
0.67%
19
46.2
44
45.9
46.3
46.7
47
47.1
47.8
51
49.1
SC
424,500
0.35%
23
29.9
31
29.5
29.4
30.8
31.1
31.8
33.2
36
34.2
SD
4,440,000
5.32%
8
43.3
49.5
43.1
40.4
38.3
36.8
35.6
36.1
41
38.3
TN
1,441,000
1.67%
16
42.3
45
42.4
43.1
45.4
45.7
45.8
46.4
45
47
TX
135,900
0.11%
27
28.1
31
30
30.1
29.7
29.6
29.5
30.7
35
32.8
VA
577,000
0.60%
20
37.1
36
36.8
37.3
37
36.6
35.9
36.3
37
36.5
WI
1,669,000
2.19%
14
45.7
55
44.8
46.2
46.4
46
45.6
47.2
48
47.6
US
76,504,100
100.00%
---
47.1
52.1
47
46.8
47
46.7
46.5
47.2
49.4
48.1
© 2017 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
USDA Forecast (11/9/17)
www.planalytics.com | 800.882.5881
Planalytics GreenReport Soybean Yield Forecast ®
Produced in collaboration with TerraMetrics Agriculture, Inc.
Soybean Yield Forecast Period 7: August 23, 2017 TOP 10 2017 YIELD CHANGE vs SOYBEAN STATES (bu/ac) PREVIOUS
CHANGE vs TREND
USDA AUGUST 10th
Iowa
53.6
+0.7
0.2 below
56
Illinois
55.2
+0.6
2.3 above
58
Minnesota
48.7
+1.1
2.8 above
49
Indiana
52.4
+1.0
0.2 above
55
Nebraska
57.1
+1.1
0.1 above
58
Ohio
52.0
+0.9
1.0 above
53
Missouri
48.1
+1.3
5.9 above
49
South Dakota
38.3
+2.2
5.0 below
41
North Dakota
31.7
+1.0
3.8 below
33
Arkansas
49.3
+0.6
3.6 above
49
U.S.
48.1
+0.9
1.0 above
49.4
MAP 1: Mid-August 2017 Compared to Previous Period
OBSERVATIONS •Planalytics’ satellite greenness-based estimate for the US soybean crop increased 0.9 bu/ac from our forecast released two weeks ago and now sits at 48.1 bu/ac. This value is 1 bu/ac above the trend yield of 47.1 bu/ac and 3.9 bu/ac below last year’s record crop (2016 final yield: 52.1 bu/ac). For comparison, Farm Futures forecast based on this week’s USDA crop condition ratings ranges from 47.4-48.2 bu/ac, in relatively good agreement with our number.
MAP 2: Mid-August 2017 vs. 2016 Final Yield
•For top producer IA, recent substantial rainfall (2+”) over the dry western and central parts of the state will go a long way to providing the soy crop the moisture it needs to finish. However, ProFarmer crop tour participants are not seeing the pod counts they were expecting. While the near-term weather outlook is favorably warm and mostly dry, clouds will be common and IA soy plants really need more sunshine to achieve maximum pod fill. •In #2 Illinois, less-demanding soy fields should be better positioned to handle the expected dryness over the next two weeks. That said, the IL soy crop could certainly make use of the additional precipitation expected early next week. •Lower-than-expected pod counts have also been noted by tour participants for the high-potential crop in MN (#3; 9% of US production). August rains have provided solid rebound conditions for drought-stressed soy crops in SD (#8; 5%) and ND (#10; 4%). NE (#5; 8%) soybeans have held their own through a generally dry summer and are now showing good improvement. While late-planted soybean crops in IN (#4; 8% of US production) and OH (#6; 6%) struggled through overly wet conditions in July, a generally dry and mild August has allowed the crop to get its footing and flourish.
MAP 3: Mid--August 2017 Compared to Trend Yield
•In the Delta and southern states, prospects for both crops across this 8state region are extremely favorable, and high soybean yields would go farther to offset any potential problems with the Midwestern crop. SUMMARY • Based on satellite greenness and USDA crop conditions, yield projections for US soy show a crop with slightly above-trend potential as blooming and pod setting wind down and grain fill begins to wield its substantial influence on final yields. Overall we give the US soybean crop a slightly up arrow as it nears the critical final leg of its reproduction cycle. Our next release in two weeks will be Planalytics’ final soy yield forecast update for the 2017 growing season. © 2017 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
www.planalytics.com | 800.882.5881
Produced in collaboration with TerraMetrics Agriculture, Inc. Issued: August 25, 2017
Soybean Yield Forecast Period 7: August 23, 2017
This is the seventh round of ASD, state, and national-level soybean yield forecasts for 2017. These forecasts were generated using ten consecutive biweekly normalized differential vegetation index (NDVI) composite images covering the conterminous U.S. at 1-km pixel resolution. The NDVI composites are generated at EROS Data Center using data acquired by the AVHRR sensor on the NOAA-19 satellite from approximately April 4 to August 21, 2017. This year’s models were constructed using 28 years (1989-2016) of historical EROS AVHRR NDVI data and corresponding USDA final estimated crop yield data. All trend yields are 28-year linear projections corresponding with the period of record for the satellite database.
YIELD (BU/AC)
Region
Avg. Harv. % of U.S. Last Year's TMAI/KARS TMAI/KARS TMAI/KARS TMAI/KARS TMAI/KARS TMAI/KARS USDA TMAI/KARS TMAI/KARS USDA USDA Production Trend Yield Acres Production Yield Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Rank (1989-2016) (2007-2016) (2007-2016) (2016) (5/31/17) (6/14/17) (6/28/17) (7/12/17) (7/26/17) (8/9/17) (8/10/17) (8/23/17) (9/6/17) (9/12/17) (10/12/17)
AL
374,000
0.41%
22
38.7
32
38.7
39.2
40.3
40.6
40.7
42.9
44
44.8
AR
3,163,000
3.89%
10
45.7
47
46.4
47
47.6
48.3
48.5
48.7
49
49.3
DE
172,200
0.19%
26
40.2
41.5
40.5
41
40.7
40.5
40.4
42.3
50
44.3
FL
25,900
0.03%
29
38.2
36
36.9
36.9
37.3
38.1
38.2
39.2
---
40
GA
281,500
0.28%
24
35.9
30
34.2
34.6
36.2
36.5
37.1
39.2
44
41.2
IL
9,266,000
13.68%
2
52.9
59
52.7
52.6
53.3
53.5
53.5
54.6
58
55.2
IN
5,317,000
7.72%
4
52.2
57.5
52
51.9
51.6
51.2
50.9
51.4
55
52.4
IA
9,437,000
14.18%
1
53.8
60.5
54
53.9
54.6
53.7
53.1
52.9
56
53.6
KS
3,671,000
3.86%
11
37.5
48
36.8
36.6
37.1
36.9
36.8
37.6
41
39.3
KY
1,524,000
1.92%
15
46
50
45.9
46.2
47
47.4
47.4
48.2
52
49.3
LA
1,070,000
1.38%
18
47.4
48.5
49.2
49.4
49.5
49.8
50.1
51.5
53
52.3
MD
477,000
0.55%
21
41.1
41.5
41.2
41.4
41.1
40.9
40.7
41.4
46
42.9
MI
1,968,000
2.52%
12
45
50.5
44.9
45.3
45.4
45.6
45.9
46.1
49
46.5
MN
7,067,000
9.05%
3
45.9
52.5
46
46.5
47.3
46.9
46.8
47.6
49
48.7
MS
1,963,000
2.51%
13
47.7
48
47.9
48.1
48.3
48.2
48.3
49.3
52
50.3
MO
5,176,000
6.09%
7
42.2
49
42.5
42.8
43.8
44.6
45.5
46.8
49
48.1
NE
4,892,000
7.59%
5
57
61
57.3
57.4
56.7
56.1
55.5
56
58
57.1
NJ
92,100
0.10%
28
36.2
36
36.1
36.7
36.4
36
35.9
37.8
40
39.1
NC
1,586,000
1.53%
17
34.5
35
34.4
34.6
35.5
36
36.2
37
38
37.4
ND
4,567,000
4.49%
9
35.5
41.5
35.8
32.9
31.5
30.7
29.9
30.7
33
31.7
OH
4,573,000
6.46%
6
51
54.5
51
51.5
51.7
51.2
50.6
51.1
53
52
OK
347,500
0.27%
25
25.3
29
25.6
25.8
25.9
26
25.8
26
27
28.3
PA
508,000
0.67%
19
46.2
44
45.9
46.3
46.7
47
47.1
47.8
51
49.1
SC
424,500
0.35%
23
29.9
31
29.5
29.4
30.8
31.1
31.8
33.2
36
34.2
SD
4,440,000
5.32%
8
43.3
49.5
43.1
40.4
38.3
36.8
35.6
36.1
41
38.3
TN
1,441,000
1.67%
16
42.3
45
42.4
43.1
45.4
45.7
45.8
46.4
45
47
TX
135,900
0.11%
27
28.1
31
30
30.1
29.7
29.6
29.5
30.7
35
32.8
VA
577,000
0.60%
20
37.1
36
36.8
37.3
37
36.6
35.9
36.3
37
36.5
WI
1,669,000
2.19%
14
45.7
55
44.8
46.2
46.4
46
45.6
47.2
48
47.6
US
76,504,100
100.00%
---
47.1
52.1
47
46.8
47
46.7
46.5
47.2
49.4
48.1
© 2017 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
USDA Forecast (11/9/17)
www.planalytics.com | 800.882.5881
Planalytics GreenReport Soybean Yield Forecast ®
Produced in collaboration with TerraMetrics Agriculture, Inc.
Soybean Yield Forecast Period 7: August 23, 2017 TOP 10 2017 YIELD CHANGE vs SOYBEAN STATES (bu/ac) PREVIOUS
CHANGE vs TREND
USDA AUGUST 10th
Iowa
53.6
+0.7
0.2 below
56
Illinois
55.2
+0.6
2.3 above
58
Minnesota
48.7
+1.1
2.8 above
49
Indiana
52.4
+1.0
0.2 above
55
Nebraska
57.1
+1.1
0.1 above
58
Ohio
52.0
+0.9
1.0 above
53
Missouri
48.1
+1.3
5.9 above
49
South Dakota
38.3
+2.2
5.0 below
41
North Dakota
31.7
+1.0
3.8 below
33
Arkansas
49.3
+0.6
3.6 above
49
U.S.
48.1
+0.9
1.0 above
49.4
MAP 1: Mid-August 2017 Compared to Previous Period
OBSERVATIONS •Planalytics’ satellite greenness-based estimate for the US soybean crop increased 0.9 bu/ac from our forecast released two weeks ago and now sits at 48.1 bu/ac. This value is 1 bu/ac above the trend yield of 47.1 bu/ac and 3.9 bu/ac below last year’s record crop (2016 final yield: 52.1 bu/ac). For comparison, Farm Futures forecast based on this week’s USDA crop condition ratings ranges from 47.4-48.2 bu/ac, in relatively good agreement with our number.
MAP 2: Mid-August 2017 vs. 2016 Final Yield
•For top producer IA, recent substantial rainfall (2+”) over the dry western and central parts of the state will go a long way to providing the soy crop the moisture it needs to finish. However, ProFarmer crop tour participants are not seeing the pod counts they were expecting. While the near-term weather outlook is favorably warm and mostly dry, clouds will be common and IA soy plants really need more sunshine to achieve maximum pod fill. •In #2 Illinois, less-demanding soy fields should be better positioned to handle the expected dryness over the next two weeks. That said, the IL soy crop could certainly make use of the additional precipitation expected early next week. •Lower-than-expected pod counts have also been noted by tour participants for the high-potential crop in MN (#3; 9% of US production). August rains have provided solid rebound conditions for drought-stressed soy crops in SD (#8; 5%) and ND (#10; 4%). NE (#5; 8%) soybeans have held their own through a generally dry summer and are now showing good improvement. While late-planted soybean crops in IN (#4; 8% of US production) and OH (#6; 6%) struggled through overly wet conditions in July, a generally dry and mild August has allowed the crop to get its footing and flourish.
MAP 3: Mid--August 2017 Compared to Trend Yield
•In the Delta and southern states, prospects for both crops across this 8state region are extremely favorable, and high soybean yields would go farther to offset any potential problems with the Midwestern crop. SUMMARY • Based on satellite greenness and USDA crop conditions, yield projections for US soy show a crop with slightly above-trend potential as blooming and pod setting wind down and grain fill begins to wield its substantial influence on final yields. Overall we give the US soybean crop a slightly up arrow as it nears the critical final leg of its reproduction cycle. Our next release in two weeks will be Planalytics’ final soy yield forecast update for the 2017 growing season. © 2017 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
www.planalytics.com | 800.882.5881
