Quarterly International Trade Statistics
OECD International Trade Statistics – Fourth Quarter Paris, 19 April 2005
Quarterly International Trade Statistics
Merchandise Trade Volume Growth Steady in Fourth Quarter 2004
A. Merchandise Trade Volume Data (customs-based data) Total volumes of merchandise exports in G7 countries rose a seasonally adjusted 0.8% in the fourth quarter of 2004 compared with the previous quarter, while import growth remained stable at 2.1%. On a year-to-year basis, G7 trade export volume growth was still high at 6.7%, but the rate of annual growth has continued to fall over recent quarters. Import volume growth slowed to 9.5%. Quarterly Volume Growth in Merchandise Trade Percentage change on the previous quarter (seasonally adjusted) Exports
Imports
8.0%
8%
6.0%
6%
4.0%
4%
2.0%
2%
0.0%
0%
-2.0%
-2%
-4%
-4.0% 2002Q4
2003Q1
2003Q2
DEU
2003Q3
USA
2003Q4
JPN
2004Q1
2004Q2
2004Q3
G7
EU-15 Extra
2004Q4
2002Q4
2003Q1
2003Q2
DEU
2003Q3
USA
2003Q4
JPN
2004Q1
G7
2004Q2
2004Q3
2004Q4
EU-15 Extra
Germany’s merchandise export growth turned positive, rising 2.3% in the fourth quarter of 2004 compared with the previous quarter, while import growth continued to slow, to 2.2%. On a year-to-year basis, German export volume growth remained strong at 11.4% while imports were up 7.8%. Volume growth of German exports was the highest of the G7 countries (both in terms of the change on the previous quarter and the change on the same quarter of the previous year). In the United States, merchandise trade import growth was well above the G7 average at 3.5% in the fourth quarter compared with the previous quarter. However, export volume growth stagnated at 0.5%. Similarly, when compared with the fourth quarter of 2003, merchandise import volumes rose by 11.3% while export volume growth slowed to 6.6%.
Quarter-to-quarter volume growth of Japanese merchandise exports continued to stagnate at 0.2% while imports increased slightly at 1.8%. For the first time in two years, year-to-year quarterly trade volume growth was below the G7 average. This was due to a fall in export volume growth to 4.5% and relatively modest import volume growth of 5.9%, the lowest among G7 countries.
1
OECD International Trade Statistics – Fourth Quarter Paris, 19 April 2005
Annual Volume Growth in Merchandise Trade Percentage change on the same quarter of the previous year Exports
Imports
16%
16.0%
14%
14.0%
12%
12.0%
10%
10.0%
8%
8.0%
6%
6.0%
4%
4.0%
2%
2.0%
0%
0.0%
-2%
-2.0% 2002Q4
2003Q1
2003Q2
DEU
2003Q3
USA
2003Q4
JPN
2004Q1
G7
2004Q2
2004Q3
2002Q4
2004Q4
2003Q1
2003Q2
DEU
EU-15 Extra
2003Q3
USA
2003Q4
JPN
2004Q1
G7
2004Q2
2004Q3
2004Q4
EU-15 Extra
B. Trade in Goods and Services Values (balance of payments data) In OECD countries as a whole, exports of goods and services, measured in current US dollars, grew a seasonally adjusted 5.7% quarter-on-quarter in the fourth quarter of 2004. Imports grew 6.5% in the same period. This was faster than the growth of the previous quarter for exports and imports. Year-on-year export growth remained a robust 16.9% in the fourth quarter of 2004. Import growth rates were slightly higher than for exports at 19.6% year-on-year.
Value Growth in OECD Trade in Goods and Services Percentage change on the previous quarter and on the same quarter of the previous year Exports
Imports
25%
25%
20%
20%
15%
15%
10%
10%
5%
5%
0% 2002Q4
2003Q1
2003Q2
2003Q3
2003Q4
2004Q1
2004Q2
2004Q3
0%
2004Q4
2002Q4
previous quarter
previous year
2003Q1
2003Q2
2003Q3
2003Q4
previous quarter
2
2004Q1
2004Q2
previous year
2004Q3
2004Q4
OECD International Trade Statistics – Fourth Quarter Paris, 19 April 2005 A. Merchandise Trade Volumes (customs-based data) Merchandise Trade: Quarterly Export Volume Growth Percentage change on the previous quarter (seasonally adjusted)
G7 Canada USA Japan France Germany Italy United Kingdom EU-15 Extra EU
2002Q4
2003Q1
2003Q2
2003Q3
2003Q4
2004Q1
2004Q2
2004Q3
2004Q4
-1.1 -2.3 -2.6 1.7 1.1 -0.8 -0.1 -5.3 -1.6
-0.6 -0.7 1.0 -0.8 -3.5 0.0 -6.2 3.1 0.8
0.0 -0.9 -0.2 -0.1 -2.3 0.5 0.8 2.5 -0.1
2.2 -0.4 2.4 1.1 2.8 4.0 3.2 0.5 3.4
2.5 3.7 3.8 7.2 2.7 0.1 -2.4 -0.7 1.5
2.3 0.0 2.2 2.9 0.6 6.8 -1.6 -1.8 3.4
2.9 5.6 1.4 1.7 4.6 3.0 6.5 1.5 2.8
0.7 -0.3 2.3 -0.3 0.8 -1.0 2.3 1.7 0.2
0.8 -1.3 0.5 0.2 0.8 2.3 -0.5 2.0 2.5
2004Q3 2.0 5.4 1.2 1.0 2.6 2.7 2.2 2.3 2.1
2004Q4 2.1 1.1 3.5 1.8 1.7 2.2 -2.2 1.4 0.5
Merchandise Trade: Quarterly Import Volume Growth Percentage change on the previous quarter (seasonally adjusted)
G7 Canada USA Japan France Germany Italy United Kingdom EU-15 Extra EU
2002Q4 1.2 0.0 2.0 0.2 2.7 0.0 1.1 0.3 -0.1
2003Q1 -0.2 1.2 -0.5 2.2 -4.8 3.1 -5.2 0.8 1.1
2003Q2 1.0 0.2 1.3 1.6 -1.5 0.0 2.8 2.7 2.4
2003Q3 0.7 -0.7 0.0 0.8 1.6 1.6 2.4 0.7 0.9
2003Q4 3.6 3.8 4.3 2.5 5.1 5.6 -3.9 2.3 2.5
2004Q1 1.8 0.9 3.0 3.2 0.4 -0.7 1.6 1.9 1.0
2004Q2 3.2 2.9 3.1 -0.2 6.9 3.4 5.2 2.2 2.5
Merchandise Trade: Annual Export Volume Growth Percentage change on the same quarter of the previous year
G7 Canada USA Japan France Germany Italy United Kingdom EU-15 Extra EU
2002Q4
2003Q1
2003Q2
2003Q3
2003Q4
2004Q1
2004Q2
2004Q3
2004Q4
5.0 2.8 0.8 14.2 9.1 8.9 -1.7 -3.7 2.3
2.1 -2.1 2.4 8.6 -0.2 6.2 -8.0 -1.8 1.3
-0.1 -1.0 -1.2 2.4 -4.4 5.1 -4.4 -2.7 -0.5
0.5 -4.2 0.5 1.8 -2.0 3.8 -2.5 0.6 2.4
4.2 1.7 7.2 7.3 -0.4 4.7 -4.7 5.4 5.6
7.1 2.5 8.4 11.4 3.8 11.8 -0.1 0.4 8.3
10.3 9.2 10.2 13.4 11.1 14.5 5.5 -0.5 11.5
8.6 9.2 10.1 11.9 8.9 9.0 4.5 0.6 8.1
6.7 3.9 6.6 4.5 6.9 11.4 6.6 3.4 9.2
Merchandise Trade: Annual Import Volume Growth Percentage change on the same quarter of the previous year
G7 Canada USA Japan France Germany Italy United Kingdom EU-15 Extra EU
2002Q4
2003Q1
2003Q2
2003Q3
2003Q4
2004Q1
2004Q2
2004Q3
2004Q4
7.0 7.4 9.8 5.6 10.4 2.9 5.0 2.8 2.3
5.3 5.7 6.6 8.2 1.3 9.2 -3.8 2.3 3.0
4.0 4.3 4.2 8.4 -2.2 5.7 1.4 4.0 6.6
2.7 0.6 2.8 4.9 -2.1 4.8 0.8 4.6 4.3
5.2 4.5 5.1 7.3 0.2 10.6 -4.2 6.6 7.0
7.2 4.2 8.8 8.3 5.6 6.5 2.8 7.9 6.9
9.5 6.9 10.8 6.4 14.6 10.1 5.1 7.3 7.0
11.0 13.6 12.2 6.6 15.7 11.3 5.0 9.0 8.3
9.5 10.6 11.3 5.9 11.9 7.8 6.9 8.1 6.3
EU-15 Extra EU = 2004 Q4 data estimated
3
OECD International Trade Statistics – Fourth Quarter Paris, 19 April 2005 B. Trade in goods and services values (balance of payments data)
Trade in Goods and Services: OECD Quarterly Value Growth (current prices USD) Percentage change on the previous quarter (seasonally adjusted)
Exports Imports
2002Q4 0.7 2.1
2003Q1 5.2 5.7
2003Q2 2.1 1.2
2003Q3 2.2 1.2
2003Q4 7.0 6.9
2004Q1 5.7 5.5
2004Q2 1.7 2.7
2004Q3 2.8 3.7
2004Q4 5.7 6.5
Trade in Goods and Services: OECD Annual Value Growth (current prices USD) Percentage change on the same quarter of the previous year
Exports Imports
2002Q4
2003Q1
2003Q2
2003Q3
2003Q4
2004Q1
2004Q2
2004Q3
2004Q4
12.7 14.0
18.5 20.5
13.5 14.3
10.6 10.6
17.4 15.8
18.1 15.6
17.7 17.2
18.3 20.1
16.9 19.6
Trade in Goods: OECD Quarterly Value Growth (current prices USD) Percentage change on the previous quarter (seasonally adjusted)
Exports Imports
2002Q4
2003Q1
2003Q2
2003Q3
2003Q4
2004Q1
2004Q2
2004Q3
2004Q4
0.7 2.1
5.6 6.0
2.0 1.3
2.0 0.7
7.2 7.0
6.0 5.7
1.9 3.3
2.9 4.0
5.8 6.8
Trade in Goods: OECD Annual Value Growth (current prices USD) Percentage change on the same quarter of the previous year
Exports Imports
2002Q4
2003Q1
2003Q2
2003Q3
2003Q4
2004Q1
2004Q2
2004Q3
2004Q4
12.4 14.2
18.9 21.1
13.7 14.7
10.6 10.4
17.8 15.7
18.3 15.4
18.1 17.7
19.3 21.5
17.7 21.2
Trade in Services: OECD Quarterly Value Growth (current prices USD) Percentage change on the previous quarter (seasonally adjusted)
Exports Imports
2002Q4
2003Q1
2003Q2
2003Q3
2003Q4
2004Q1
2004Q2
2004Q3
2004Q4
0.9 2.0
3.8 4.6
2.3 1.0
3.1 3.3
6.4 6.4
4.7 4.6
1.1 0.2
2.2 2.6
5.3 5.5
2004Q3 15.1 14.6
2004Q4 13.9 13.6
Trade in Services: OECD Annual Value Growth (current prices USD) Percentage change on the same quarter of the previous year
Exports Imports
2002Q4 13.7 13.4
2003Q1 17.1 18.0
2003Q2 12.7 12.8
2003Q3 10.4 11.4
2003Q4 16.4 16.2
4
2004Q1 17.5 16.2
2004Q2 16.1 15.3
OECD International Trade Statistics – Fourth Quarter Paris, 19 April 2005 Methodological Notes and Additional Background Information A. Merchandise Trade Volumes (customs-based data) All merchandise data contained in this press release are based on the OECD’s Monthly Statistics of International Trade (MSIT) database. Merchandise trade covers trade in goods, excluding services. Trade data for area aggregates OECD and G7 include intra-area flows. However, trade data for the area aggregate EU-15 Extra EU is provided by EUROSTAT and exclude intra-area flows. EUROSTAT community statistics cover the European Union as a whole and include methodological differences that make precise comparison with OECD statistics impossible. Seasonally adjusted data are calculated by the Secretariat using the X-12-Arima method. Aggregated annual and quarterly growth rates in volume terms are derived from series in constant 2000 US dollars. The OECD’s Monthly Statistics of International Trade (MSIT) cover aggregate indicators, trade unit value and volume indices and trade broken down by the Standard International Trade Classification (SITC) sections and by partner country. In addition to monthly and quarterly trade, OECD manages a comprehensive annual trade database by commodity and by partner country, called ITCS (International Trade by Commodity Statistics). B. Trade in goods and services values (balance of payments data) In principle balance of payments trade data covers transactions involving goods and services between residents and non-residents for a specific time period in the reporting economy. Merchandise trade data are based mainly on customs declarations concerning physical movements of goods across international frontiers for as specific time-period. OECD balance of payments data are compiled from national data which is published in the OECD Main Economic Indicators database. OECD estimates are made for some missing values in the latest quarter. Seasonal adjustment for trade in goods and services series in the balance of payments is provided by countries in the majority of cases, and is calculated by OECD for the remainder. The main differences between the two concepts are summarized in the box below Necessary adjustments of merchandise trade data for the balance of payments
Whereas data collection on international merchandise trade is mainly based on customs declarations, the balance of payments statement for trade in goods systematically summarizes goods transactions for a specific time period, for the most part involving changes of ownership between residents and nonresidents. It covers general merchandise (which includes moveable goods), the movement of goods for processing (when no change of ownership occurs), the value of repairs on goods (not the value of goods undergoing repair), and goods procured in ports by non-resident carriers.1
Customs data need to be supplemented with additional information to help produce the data required for national accounts and balance of payments purposes. The additional information includes:
1
For more information on measurement of international trade see OECD “Statistics Brief” No. 1 October 2001 available at www.oecd.org/std/statisticsbrief.
5
OECD International Trade Statistics – Fourth Quarter Paris, 19 April 2005
•
Certain goods (for example goods for repair) are excluded from the detailed official trade statistics. These goods need to be recorded separately so that adjustments can be made. •
A separate collection of data on freight and insurance for merchandise trade statistics imports are recorded c.i.f. (cost, insurance and freight), whereas in balance of payments they are valued f.o.b (free on board). •
Timing differences according to balance of payments methodology, the change of ownership is the principle determining coverage and timing, whereas in merchandise trade statistics the timing principle is based on the movement of the goods.
The OECD study 2001 referred to above showed that 1999 OECD merchandise trade imports were some 2% higher overall than the balance of payments imports of goods, with differences ranging from 1% to over 5%. For exports the difference for exports was much less at around 0.2%.
Background information on overall size of OECD trade flows In 2004 the total exports of goods and services of the 30 OECD member countries amounted to over $7.7 trillion US dollars, while imports were $8.0 trillion USD. Goods accounted for 78% of exports of goods and services and 80% of imports. ---------Data status of this release: as at 12th April 2005 This press release can be found on the OECD web site: www.oecd.org. Information about detailed OECD statistics on trade in goods and trade in services can be found at: http://www.oecd.org/std/its. Contacts: [email protected] and [email protected] The next release for quarterly trade data will be published in July 2005.
6
Quarterly International Trade Statistics
Merchandise Trade Volume Growth Steady in Fourth Quarter 2004
A. Merchandise Trade Volume Data (customs-based data) Total volumes of merchandise exports in G7 countries rose a seasonally adjusted 0.8% in the fourth quarter of 2004 compared with the previous quarter, while import growth remained stable at 2.1%. On a year-to-year basis, G7 trade export volume growth was still high at 6.7%, but the rate of annual growth has continued to fall over recent quarters. Import volume growth slowed to 9.5%. Quarterly Volume Growth in Merchandise Trade Percentage change on the previous quarter (seasonally adjusted) Exports
Imports
8.0%
8%
6.0%
6%
4.0%
4%
2.0%
2%
0.0%
0%
-2.0%
-2%
-4%
-4.0% 2002Q4
2003Q1
2003Q2
DEU
2003Q3
USA
2003Q4
JPN
2004Q1
2004Q2
2004Q3
G7
EU-15 Extra
2004Q4
2002Q4
2003Q1
2003Q2
DEU
2003Q3
USA
2003Q4
JPN
2004Q1
G7
2004Q2
2004Q3
2004Q4
EU-15 Extra
Germany’s merchandise export growth turned positive, rising 2.3% in the fourth quarter of 2004 compared with the previous quarter, while import growth continued to slow, to 2.2%. On a year-to-year basis, German export volume growth remained strong at 11.4% while imports were up 7.8%. Volume growth of German exports was the highest of the G7 countries (both in terms of the change on the previous quarter and the change on the same quarter of the previous year). In the United States, merchandise trade import growth was well above the G7 average at 3.5% in the fourth quarter compared with the previous quarter. However, export volume growth stagnated at 0.5%. Similarly, when compared with the fourth quarter of 2003, merchandise import volumes rose by 11.3% while export volume growth slowed to 6.6%.
Quarter-to-quarter volume growth of Japanese merchandise exports continued to stagnate at 0.2% while imports increased slightly at 1.8%. For the first time in two years, year-to-year quarterly trade volume growth was below the G7 average. This was due to a fall in export volume growth to 4.5% and relatively modest import volume growth of 5.9%, the lowest among G7 countries.
1
OECD International Trade Statistics – Fourth Quarter Paris, 19 April 2005
Annual Volume Growth in Merchandise Trade Percentage change on the same quarter of the previous year Exports
Imports
16%
16.0%
14%
14.0%
12%
12.0%
10%
10.0%
8%
8.0%
6%
6.0%
4%
4.0%
2%
2.0%
0%
0.0%
-2%
-2.0% 2002Q4
2003Q1
2003Q2
DEU
2003Q3
USA
2003Q4
JPN
2004Q1
G7
2004Q2
2004Q3
2002Q4
2004Q4
2003Q1
2003Q2
DEU
EU-15 Extra
2003Q3
USA
2003Q4
JPN
2004Q1
G7
2004Q2
2004Q3
2004Q4
EU-15 Extra
B. Trade in Goods and Services Values (balance of payments data) In OECD countries as a whole, exports of goods and services, measured in current US dollars, grew a seasonally adjusted 5.7% quarter-on-quarter in the fourth quarter of 2004. Imports grew 6.5% in the same period. This was faster than the growth of the previous quarter for exports and imports. Year-on-year export growth remained a robust 16.9% in the fourth quarter of 2004. Import growth rates were slightly higher than for exports at 19.6% year-on-year.
Value Growth in OECD Trade in Goods and Services Percentage change on the previous quarter and on the same quarter of the previous year Exports
Imports
25%
25%
20%
20%
15%
15%
10%
10%
5%
5%
0% 2002Q4
2003Q1
2003Q2
2003Q3
2003Q4
2004Q1
2004Q2
2004Q3
0%
2004Q4
2002Q4
previous quarter
previous year
2003Q1
2003Q2
2003Q3
2003Q4
previous quarter
2
2004Q1
2004Q2
previous year
2004Q3
2004Q4
OECD International Trade Statistics – Fourth Quarter Paris, 19 April 2005 A. Merchandise Trade Volumes (customs-based data) Merchandise Trade: Quarterly Export Volume Growth Percentage change on the previous quarter (seasonally adjusted)
G7 Canada USA Japan France Germany Italy United Kingdom EU-15 Extra EU
2002Q4
2003Q1
2003Q2
2003Q3
2003Q4
2004Q1
2004Q2
2004Q3
2004Q4
-1.1 -2.3 -2.6 1.7 1.1 -0.8 -0.1 -5.3 -1.6
-0.6 -0.7 1.0 -0.8 -3.5 0.0 -6.2 3.1 0.8
0.0 -0.9 -0.2 -0.1 -2.3 0.5 0.8 2.5 -0.1
2.2 -0.4 2.4 1.1 2.8 4.0 3.2 0.5 3.4
2.5 3.7 3.8 7.2 2.7 0.1 -2.4 -0.7 1.5
2.3 0.0 2.2 2.9 0.6 6.8 -1.6 -1.8 3.4
2.9 5.6 1.4 1.7 4.6 3.0 6.5 1.5 2.8
0.7 -0.3 2.3 -0.3 0.8 -1.0 2.3 1.7 0.2
0.8 -1.3 0.5 0.2 0.8 2.3 -0.5 2.0 2.5
2004Q3 2.0 5.4 1.2 1.0 2.6 2.7 2.2 2.3 2.1
2004Q4 2.1 1.1 3.5 1.8 1.7 2.2 -2.2 1.4 0.5
Merchandise Trade: Quarterly Import Volume Growth Percentage change on the previous quarter (seasonally adjusted)
G7 Canada USA Japan France Germany Italy United Kingdom EU-15 Extra EU
2002Q4 1.2 0.0 2.0 0.2 2.7 0.0 1.1 0.3 -0.1
2003Q1 -0.2 1.2 -0.5 2.2 -4.8 3.1 -5.2 0.8 1.1
2003Q2 1.0 0.2 1.3 1.6 -1.5 0.0 2.8 2.7 2.4
2003Q3 0.7 -0.7 0.0 0.8 1.6 1.6 2.4 0.7 0.9
2003Q4 3.6 3.8 4.3 2.5 5.1 5.6 -3.9 2.3 2.5
2004Q1 1.8 0.9 3.0 3.2 0.4 -0.7 1.6 1.9 1.0
2004Q2 3.2 2.9 3.1 -0.2 6.9 3.4 5.2 2.2 2.5
Merchandise Trade: Annual Export Volume Growth Percentage change on the same quarter of the previous year
G7 Canada USA Japan France Germany Italy United Kingdom EU-15 Extra EU
2002Q4
2003Q1
2003Q2
2003Q3
2003Q4
2004Q1
2004Q2
2004Q3
2004Q4
5.0 2.8 0.8 14.2 9.1 8.9 -1.7 -3.7 2.3
2.1 -2.1 2.4 8.6 -0.2 6.2 -8.0 -1.8 1.3
-0.1 -1.0 -1.2 2.4 -4.4 5.1 -4.4 -2.7 -0.5
0.5 -4.2 0.5 1.8 -2.0 3.8 -2.5 0.6 2.4
4.2 1.7 7.2 7.3 -0.4 4.7 -4.7 5.4 5.6
7.1 2.5 8.4 11.4 3.8 11.8 -0.1 0.4 8.3
10.3 9.2 10.2 13.4 11.1 14.5 5.5 -0.5 11.5
8.6 9.2 10.1 11.9 8.9 9.0 4.5 0.6 8.1
6.7 3.9 6.6 4.5 6.9 11.4 6.6 3.4 9.2
Merchandise Trade: Annual Import Volume Growth Percentage change on the same quarter of the previous year
G7 Canada USA Japan France Germany Italy United Kingdom EU-15 Extra EU
2002Q4
2003Q1
2003Q2
2003Q3
2003Q4
2004Q1
2004Q2
2004Q3
2004Q4
7.0 7.4 9.8 5.6 10.4 2.9 5.0 2.8 2.3
5.3 5.7 6.6 8.2 1.3 9.2 -3.8 2.3 3.0
4.0 4.3 4.2 8.4 -2.2 5.7 1.4 4.0 6.6
2.7 0.6 2.8 4.9 -2.1 4.8 0.8 4.6 4.3
5.2 4.5 5.1 7.3 0.2 10.6 -4.2 6.6 7.0
7.2 4.2 8.8 8.3 5.6 6.5 2.8 7.9 6.9
9.5 6.9 10.8 6.4 14.6 10.1 5.1 7.3 7.0
11.0 13.6 12.2 6.6 15.7 11.3 5.0 9.0 8.3
9.5 10.6 11.3 5.9 11.9 7.8 6.9 8.1 6.3
EU-15 Extra EU = 2004 Q4 data estimated
3
OECD International Trade Statistics – Fourth Quarter Paris, 19 April 2005 B. Trade in goods and services values (balance of payments data)
Trade in Goods and Services: OECD Quarterly Value Growth (current prices USD) Percentage change on the previous quarter (seasonally adjusted)
Exports Imports
2002Q4 0.7 2.1
2003Q1 5.2 5.7
2003Q2 2.1 1.2
2003Q3 2.2 1.2
2003Q4 7.0 6.9
2004Q1 5.7 5.5
2004Q2 1.7 2.7
2004Q3 2.8 3.7
2004Q4 5.7 6.5
Trade in Goods and Services: OECD Annual Value Growth (current prices USD) Percentage change on the same quarter of the previous year
Exports Imports
2002Q4
2003Q1
2003Q2
2003Q3
2003Q4
2004Q1
2004Q2
2004Q3
2004Q4
12.7 14.0
18.5 20.5
13.5 14.3
10.6 10.6
17.4 15.8
18.1 15.6
17.7 17.2
18.3 20.1
16.9 19.6
Trade in Goods: OECD Quarterly Value Growth (current prices USD) Percentage change on the previous quarter (seasonally adjusted)
Exports Imports
2002Q4
2003Q1
2003Q2
2003Q3
2003Q4
2004Q1
2004Q2
2004Q3
2004Q4
0.7 2.1
5.6 6.0
2.0 1.3
2.0 0.7
7.2 7.0
6.0 5.7
1.9 3.3
2.9 4.0
5.8 6.8
Trade in Goods: OECD Annual Value Growth (current prices USD) Percentage change on the same quarter of the previous year
Exports Imports
2002Q4
2003Q1
2003Q2
2003Q3
2003Q4
2004Q1
2004Q2
2004Q3
2004Q4
12.4 14.2
18.9 21.1
13.7 14.7
10.6 10.4
17.8 15.7
18.3 15.4
18.1 17.7
19.3 21.5
17.7 21.2
Trade in Services: OECD Quarterly Value Growth (current prices USD) Percentage change on the previous quarter (seasonally adjusted)
Exports Imports
2002Q4
2003Q1
2003Q2
2003Q3
2003Q4
2004Q1
2004Q2
2004Q3
2004Q4
0.9 2.0
3.8 4.6
2.3 1.0
3.1 3.3
6.4 6.4
4.7 4.6
1.1 0.2
2.2 2.6
5.3 5.5
2004Q3 15.1 14.6
2004Q4 13.9 13.6
Trade in Services: OECD Annual Value Growth (current prices USD) Percentage change on the same quarter of the previous year
Exports Imports
2002Q4 13.7 13.4
2003Q1 17.1 18.0
2003Q2 12.7 12.8
2003Q3 10.4 11.4
2003Q4 16.4 16.2
4
2004Q1 17.5 16.2
2004Q2 16.1 15.3
OECD International Trade Statistics – Fourth Quarter Paris, 19 April 2005 Methodological Notes and Additional Background Information A. Merchandise Trade Volumes (customs-based data) All merchandise data contained in this press release are based on the OECD’s Monthly Statistics of International Trade (MSIT) database. Merchandise trade covers trade in goods, excluding services. Trade data for area aggregates OECD and G7 include intra-area flows. However, trade data for the area aggregate EU-15 Extra EU is provided by EUROSTAT and exclude intra-area flows. EUROSTAT community statistics cover the European Union as a whole and include methodological differences that make precise comparison with OECD statistics impossible. Seasonally adjusted data are calculated by the Secretariat using the X-12-Arima method. Aggregated annual and quarterly growth rates in volume terms are derived from series in constant 2000 US dollars. The OECD’s Monthly Statistics of International Trade (MSIT) cover aggregate indicators, trade unit value and volume indices and trade broken down by the Standard International Trade Classification (SITC) sections and by partner country. In addition to monthly and quarterly trade, OECD manages a comprehensive annual trade database by commodity and by partner country, called ITCS (International Trade by Commodity Statistics). B. Trade in goods and services values (balance of payments data) In principle balance of payments trade data covers transactions involving goods and services between residents and non-residents for a specific time period in the reporting economy. Merchandise trade data are based mainly on customs declarations concerning physical movements of goods across international frontiers for as specific time-period. OECD balance of payments data are compiled from national data which is published in the OECD Main Economic Indicators database. OECD estimates are made for some missing values in the latest quarter. Seasonal adjustment for trade in goods and services series in the balance of payments is provided by countries in the majority of cases, and is calculated by OECD for the remainder. The main differences between the two concepts are summarized in the box below Necessary adjustments of merchandise trade data for the balance of payments
Whereas data collection on international merchandise trade is mainly based on customs declarations, the balance of payments statement for trade in goods systematically summarizes goods transactions for a specific time period, for the most part involving changes of ownership between residents and nonresidents. It covers general merchandise (which includes moveable goods), the movement of goods for processing (when no change of ownership occurs), the value of repairs on goods (not the value of goods undergoing repair), and goods procured in ports by non-resident carriers.1
Customs data need to be supplemented with additional information to help produce the data required for national accounts and balance of payments purposes. The additional information includes:
1
For more information on measurement of international trade see OECD “Statistics Brief” No. 1 October 2001 available at www.oecd.org/std/statisticsbrief.
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OECD International Trade Statistics – Fourth Quarter Paris, 19 April 2005
•
Certain goods (for example goods for repair) are excluded from the detailed official trade statistics. These goods need to be recorded separately so that adjustments can be made. •
A separate collection of data on freight and insurance for merchandise trade statistics imports are recorded c.i.f. (cost, insurance and freight), whereas in balance of payments they are valued f.o.b (free on board). •
Timing differences according to balance of payments methodology, the change of ownership is the principle determining coverage and timing, whereas in merchandise trade statistics the timing principle is based on the movement of the goods.
The OECD study 2001 referred to above showed that 1999 OECD merchandise trade imports were some 2% higher overall than the balance of payments imports of goods, with differences ranging from 1% to over 5%. For exports the difference for exports was much less at around 0.2%.
Background information on overall size of OECD trade flows In 2004 the total exports of goods and services of the 30 OECD member countries amounted to over $7.7 trillion US dollars, while imports were $8.0 trillion USD. Goods accounted for 78% of exports of goods and services and 80% of imports. ---------Data status of this release: as at 12th April 2005 This press release can be found on the OECD web site: www.oecd.org. Information about detailed OECD statistics on trade in goods and trade in services can be found at: http://www.oecd.org/std/its. Contacts: [email protected] and [email protected] The next release for quarterly trade data will be published in July 2005.
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