Red Oak Strategic Presidential Poll
Red Oak Strategic Presidential Poll Fielded 9/29-9/30 Using Google Consumer Surveys Results, Crosstabs, and Technical Appendix 1 This document contains the full crosstab results for Red Oak Strategic’s Presidential Poll, fielded September 29th through 30th, 2016, using Google Consumer Surveys. Question 1 is a screening question, so we report the simple unweighted distribution of answers. For the following questions, all crosstabs are subsetted to respondents who are "somewhat" or "very" likely to vote, with weighting based on age, gender, and region so the sample better reflects the demographic distributions of the United States population of Internet users. Following the crosstabs, a technical appendix contains information on weighting, margin of error and other aspects of the survey. Q1 [Screening Question]: "How likely are you to vote in the November US Presidential Election?" Very likely Somewhat Likely Not Likely Not Registered Other/Don’t Know
63.4% 9.0% 8.8% 8.6% 10.0%
Results for questions 2-7 reported from sample of respondents who are "Very Likely" or "Somewhat Likely" to vote, with weighting based on age, region, and gender. Q2: "If the US Presidential election were held today, who would you vote for?" Results from previous survey (fielded 9/15-9/16) displayed in middle column, with difference from current poll results in right column. Hillary Clinton Donald Trump Gary Johnson Jill Stein Other/Don’t Know Margin of error ± 3.3% 1
(9/29-9/30 Poll) 35.6% 31.3% 10.0% 1.7% 21.4%
(9/15-9/16 Poll) 32.8% 34.8% 8.1% N/A 24.4%
Difference +2.8% –3.5% +1.9% N/A –3.0% N=873
Max Samels, Data Analyst
Questions? Contact [email protected]
Visit us at redoakstrategic.com
2016 preferences among voters who prefer a candidate Hillary Clinton Donald Trump Gary Johnson Jill Stein Margin of error ± 3.9%
(9/29-9/30 Poll) 45.7% 40.1% 12.0% 2.1%
(9/15-9/16 Poll) 43.3% 46.0% 10.7% N/A
Difference +2.4% –5.9% +1.3% N/A N=686
2016 preferences among voters who prefer a major party candidate Hillary Clinton Donald Trump Margin of error ± 4.2%
(9/29-9/30 Poll) 53.3% 46.7%
(9/15-9/16 Poll) 48.5% 51.5%
Difference +4.8% –4.8% N=584
Results for questions 3-7 reported from sample of respondents who are "Very Likely" or "Somewhat Likely" to vote, with weighting based on age, region, and gender. Q3: "This November, do you plan to vote for a Democratic or Republican candidate in your Congressional district?" Democrat Republican Other/Don’t Know Margin of error ± 3.3%
32.5% 35.6% 31.9% N=873
2016 preferences by 2016 Congressional vote 2016 CD Vote Clinton Democrat 85.5% Republican 3.3% Other/Don’t Know 22.1%
Trump 2.4% 75.9% 11.9%
Johnson 3.5% 8.4% 16.7%
Stein 2.6% 0.8% 1.6%
Other/Don’t know 5.9% 11.7% 47.7%
Q4: "Who did you vote for in the 2012 US Presidential election?" Barack Obama Mitt Romney Don’t recall/Other/Didn’t vote Margin of error ± 3.4%
Questions? Contact [email protected]
40.1% 32.6% 27.3% N=873
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2016 preferences by 2012 vote 2012 Vote Barack Obama Mitt Romney Other/Don’t Recall
Clinton 73.3% 5.4% 17.8%
Trump 6.4% 64.9% 29.0%
Johnson 5.4% 10.5% 14.2%
Stein 2.6% 0.9% 1.2%
Other/Don’t know 12.3% 18.4% 37.9%
Q5: "Thinking about politics these days, how would you describe your own political viewpoint?" Conservative Liberal Moderate Don’t Know/Other Margin of error ± 3.3%
26.6% 19.0% 35.9% 18.4% N=873
2016 preferences by ideological identification Ideology Liberal Conservative Moderate Other/Don’t Know
Clinton 76.1% 5.3% 47.6% 16.3%
Trump 4.3% 69.4% 21.4% 25.0%
Johnson 8.0% 6.7% 11.6% 10.9%
Stein 2.6% 1.2% 0.9% 2.9%
Other/Don’t know 9.0% 17.5% 18.5% 44.9%
Q6: "Generally speaking, do you think of yourself as...?" Democrat Republican Independent Don’t Know/Other Margin of error ± 3.2 %
26.9% 27.4% 31.6% 14.2% N=873
2016 preferences by party affiliation Party Identification Democrat Republican Independent Other/Don’t Know
Clinton 79.9% 4.3% 32.7% 21.4%
Trump 5.6% 74.0% 22.8% 18.3%
Questions? Contact [email protected]
Johnson 4.2% 6.9% 17.7% 6.0%
Stein 1.1% 1.0% 2.8% 1.2%
Other / Don’t know 9.1% 13.7% 23.9% 53.1%
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Q7: "What is the highest level of education that you have completed?" Did not graduate High School 1.7% High School Graduate 11.5% Some college or 2-year college degree 29.8% 4 years college degree/postgraduate degree 57.0% Margin of error ± 3.4% N=873 2016 preferences by education Level of Education Clinton Did not graduate High School 29.0% High School Graduate 23.3% Some college or 2-year college degree 27.0% 4-year college degree/postgraduate degree 43.5%
Trump 34.7% 42.5% 39.0% 25.4%
Johnson 13.1% 8.8% 10.0% 9.2%
Stein 0.0% 1.7% 2.2% 1.4%
Other/Don’t know 23.2% 23.6% 21.8% 20.5%
Q8: "What is your race or ethnic group?" Black 4.3% White 75.4% Hispanic 3.8% Other/Don’t wish to answer 16.5% Margin of error ± 3.0% N=873 2016 preferences by race / ethnicity Race Black White Hispanic Other/Don’t wish to answer
Clinton 56.2% 36.7% 45.5% 25.5%
Trump 13.6% 34.4% 20.8% 25.8%
Questions? Contact [email protected]
Johnson 7.4% 9.8% 9.8% 8.3%
Stein 0.0% 1.5% 2.9% 2.6%
Other/Don’t know 22.8% 17.6% 21.0% 37.8%
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Technical Appendix Weighting and Coverage Error The survey is weighted over age, gender, and region in order to approximate the typical Internet using population of the United States. Google provided these demographic characteristics for respondents based on their IP address and online behavior, and Google also constructed the weightings based on these characteristics. Any respondents for whom gender, age or region could not be imputed were not included in our final sample. This population without demographic data amounted to 345 out of 1504 respondents to our survey. This survey’s main source of coverage error is that it excludes members of the population without access to the Internet or a smartphone. Statistical Error and Sample Size The margin of error is reported on a question-by-question basis, in line with suggestions from both the American Association for Public Opinion Researchers and the practices of established polling firms.2 To determine the margin of error for each table, we take the maximum size of one half of the 95% confidence interval for each cell in the table with a substantive response (i.e. not Don’t know/Other). We then multiply this number by the design bias, which in this case is 1.02.3 In other words, we believe that there is 95% chance that the true value of these estimates for the general population is within the margin of error of our reported number. Total surveyed population of likely voters with demographic data N = 873. However, since all of these tables subset the population in various ways to produce the estimates for each cell, we report sample sizes on a per table basis as well. For tables which break down 2016 preference by demographic characteristic and therefore use smaller samples to estimate cells, the error for those cells grows accordingly. Response Rate The response rate for this survey was approximately 5.08%. After running our survey, we were able to compute the percent of people presented with the survey who answer the first question, and then the number of people who continued on to each subsequent question for the survey. We could then multiply these values to determine the overall response rate.
2
"AAPOR Guidance on Reporting Precision for Nonprobability Samples", American Association for Public Opinion Researchers, accessed q 8/9/16 3
Design bias defined as
eights) 2 1 + ( MSD(W ean(W eights) )
Questions? Contact [email protected]
Visit us at redoakstrategic.com
63.4% 9.0% 8.8% 8.6% 10.0%
Results for questions 2-7 reported from sample of respondents who are "Very Likely" or "Somewhat Likely" to vote, with weighting based on age, region, and gender. Q2: "If the US Presidential election were held today, who would you vote for?" Results from previous survey (fielded 9/15-9/16) displayed in middle column, with difference from current poll results in right column. Hillary Clinton Donald Trump Gary Johnson Jill Stein Other/Don’t Know Margin of error ± 3.3% 1
(9/29-9/30 Poll) 35.6% 31.3% 10.0% 1.7% 21.4%
(9/15-9/16 Poll) 32.8% 34.8% 8.1% N/A 24.4%
Difference +2.8% –3.5% +1.9% N/A –3.0% N=873
Max Samels, Data Analyst
Questions? Contact [email protected]
Visit us at redoakstrategic.com
2016 preferences among voters who prefer a candidate Hillary Clinton Donald Trump Gary Johnson Jill Stein Margin of error ± 3.9%
(9/29-9/30 Poll) 45.7% 40.1% 12.0% 2.1%
(9/15-9/16 Poll) 43.3% 46.0% 10.7% N/A
Difference +2.4% –5.9% +1.3% N/A N=686
2016 preferences among voters who prefer a major party candidate Hillary Clinton Donald Trump Margin of error ± 4.2%
(9/29-9/30 Poll) 53.3% 46.7%
(9/15-9/16 Poll) 48.5% 51.5%
Difference +4.8% –4.8% N=584
Results for questions 3-7 reported from sample of respondents who are "Very Likely" or "Somewhat Likely" to vote, with weighting based on age, region, and gender. Q3: "This November, do you plan to vote for a Democratic or Republican candidate in your Congressional district?" Democrat Republican Other/Don’t Know Margin of error ± 3.3%
32.5% 35.6% 31.9% N=873
2016 preferences by 2016 Congressional vote 2016 CD Vote Clinton Democrat 85.5% Republican 3.3% Other/Don’t Know 22.1%
Trump 2.4% 75.9% 11.9%
Johnson 3.5% 8.4% 16.7%
Stein 2.6% 0.8% 1.6%
Other/Don’t know 5.9% 11.7% 47.7%
Q4: "Who did you vote for in the 2012 US Presidential election?" Barack Obama Mitt Romney Don’t recall/Other/Didn’t vote Margin of error ± 3.4%
Questions? Contact [email protected]
40.1% 32.6% 27.3% N=873
Visit us at redoakstrategic.com
2016 preferences by 2012 vote 2012 Vote Barack Obama Mitt Romney Other/Don’t Recall
Clinton 73.3% 5.4% 17.8%
Trump 6.4% 64.9% 29.0%
Johnson 5.4% 10.5% 14.2%
Stein 2.6% 0.9% 1.2%
Other/Don’t know 12.3% 18.4% 37.9%
Q5: "Thinking about politics these days, how would you describe your own political viewpoint?" Conservative Liberal Moderate Don’t Know/Other Margin of error ± 3.3%
26.6% 19.0% 35.9% 18.4% N=873
2016 preferences by ideological identification Ideology Liberal Conservative Moderate Other/Don’t Know
Clinton 76.1% 5.3% 47.6% 16.3%
Trump 4.3% 69.4% 21.4% 25.0%
Johnson 8.0% 6.7% 11.6% 10.9%
Stein 2.6% 1.2% 0.9% 2.9%
Other/Don’t know 9.0% 17.5% 18.5% 44.9%
Q6: "Generally speaking, do you think of yourself as...?" Democrat Republican Independent Don’t Know/Other Margin of error ± 3.2 %
26.9% 27.4% 31.6% 14.2% N=873
2016 preferences by party affiliation Party Identification Democrat Republican Independent Other/Don’t Know
Clinton 79.9% 4.3% 32.7% 21.4%
Trump 5.6% 74.0% 22.8% 18.3%
Questions? Contact [email protected]
Johnson 4.2% 6.9% 17.7% 6.0%
Stein 1.1% 1.0% 2.8% 1.2%
Other / Don’t know 9.1% 13.7% 23.9% 53.1%
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Q7: "What is the highest level of education that you have completed?" Did not graduate High School 1.7% High School Graduate 11.5% Some college or 2-year college degree 29.8% 4 years college degree/postgraduate degree 57.0% Margin of error ± 3.4% N=873 2016 preferences by education Level of Education Clinton Did not graduate High School 29.0% High School Graduate 23.3% Some college or 2-year college degree 27.0% 4-year college degree/postgraduate degree 43.5%
Trump 34.7% 42.5% 39.0% 25.4%
Johnson 13.1% 8.8% 10.0% 9.2%
Stein 0.0% 1.7% 2.2% 1.4%
Other/Don’t know 23.2% 23.6% 21.8% 20.5%
Q8: "What is your race or ethnic group?" Black 4.3% White 75.4% Hispanic 3.8% Other/Don’t wish to answer 16.5% Margin of error ± 3.0% N=873 2016 preferences by race / ethnicity Race Black White Hispanic Other/Don’t wish to answer
Clinton 56.2% 36.7% 45.5% 25.5%
Trump 13.6% 34.4% 20.8% 25.8%
Questions? Contact [email protected]
Johnson 7.4% 9.8% 9.8% 8.3%
Stein 0.0% 1.5% 2.9% 2.6%
Other/Don’t know 22.8% 17.6% 21.0% 37.8%
Visit us at redoakstrategic.com
Technical Appendix Weighting and Coverage Error The survey is weighted over age, gender, and region in order to approximate the typical Internet using population of the United States. Google provided these demographic characteristics for respondents based on their IP address and online behavior, and Google also constructed the weightings based on these characteristics. Any respondents for whom gender, age or region could not be imputed were not included in our final sample. This population without demographic data amounted to 345 out of 1504 respondents to our survey. This survey’s main source of coverage error is that it excludes members of the population without access to the Internet or a smartphone. Statistical Error and Sample Size The margin of error is reported on a question-by-question basis, in line with suggestions from both the American Association for Public Opinion Researchers and the practices of established polling firms.2 To determine the margin of error for each table, we take the maximum size of one half of the 95% confidence interval for each cell in the table with a substantive response (i.e. not Don’t know/Other). We then multiply this number by the design bias, which in this case is 1.02.3 In other words, we believe that there is 95% chance that the true value of these estimates for the general population is within the margin of error of our reported number. Total surveyed population of likely voters with demographic data N = 873. However, since all of these tables subset the population in various ways to produce the estimates for each cell, we report sample sizes on a per table basis as well. For tables which break down 2016 preference by demographic characteristic and therefore use smaller samples to estimate cells, the error for those cells grows accordingly. Response Rate The response rate for this survey was approximately 5.08%. After running our survey, we were able to compute the percent of people presented with the survey who answer the first question, and then the number of people who continued on to each subsequent question for the survey. We could then multiply these values to determine the overall response rate.
2
"AAPOR Guidance on Reporting Precision for Nonprobability Samples", American Association for Public Opinion Researchers, accessed q 8/9/16 3
Design bias defined as
eights) 2 1 + ( MSD(W ean(W eights) )
Questions? Contact [email protected]
Visit us at redoakstrategic.com
