Google Consumer Surveys Presidential Poll
Google Consumer Surveys Presidential Poll Results, Crosstabs, and Technical Appendix 1
This document contains the full crosstab results for Red Oak Strategic's Google Consumer Surveys Presidential Poll, elded August 3rd through 9th, 2016. Question 1 is a screening question, so we report the simple unweighted distribution of answers. For the following questions, all crosstabs are subsetted to respondents who are "somewhat" or "very" likely to vote, with weighting based on age, gender, and region so the sample better re ects the demographic distributions of the United States population of Internet users. Following the crosstabs, a technical appendix contains information on weighting, the procedure for generating margin of error, the response rate, and other aspects of the survey.
Q1 [Screening Question]: "How likely are you to vote in the November US Presidential Election?" Very likely 53.7% Somewhat Likely 7.5% Not Likely 6.8% Not Registered 4.6% Other / Don't Know 6.3% Results for questions 2-7 reported from sample of respondents who are "Very Likely" or "Somewhat Likely" to vote, with weighting based on age, region, and gender
Q2: "If the US Presidential election were held today, who would you vote for?" Hillary Clinton Donald Trump Gary Johnson Other / Don't Know
36.6% 29.6% 9.8% 23.9%
Margin of error ± 3.3% N=926 2016 preferences among voters who prefer a candidate Hillary Clinton Donald Trump Gary Johnson
48.2% 38.9% 12.9%
Margin of error ± 3.9% N=709 1 Max
Samels, Data Analyst
Questions? Contact [email protected]
Visit us at
redoakstrategic.com
2016 preferences among voters who prefer a major party candidate Hillary Clinton Donald Trump
55.4% 44.7%
Margin of error ± 4.2% N=621 Results for questions 3-7 reported from sample of respondents who are "Very Likely" or "Somewhat Likely" to vote, with weighting based on age, region, and gender AND who express a preference for one of the three candidates running for president
Q3: "Who did you vote for in the 2012 US Presidential election?" Barack Obama Mitt Romney Don't recall / Other / Didn't vote
Margin of error ± 3.4%
43.5% 31.0% 25.5%
N=709
2016 preferences by 2012 vote 2012 Vote Clinton Support Trump Support Johnson Support Barack Obama 85.8% 6.0% 8.3% Mitt Romney 7.4% 80.0% 12.6% Other / Don't Know 22.7% 52.5% 24.9%
Q4: "Thinking about politics these days, how would you describe your own political viewpoint?" Conservative Liberal Moderate Don't recall / Other
27.9% 22.3% 33.1% 16.7%
Margin of error ± 3.3% N=709 2016 preferences by ideological identi cation Ideological Identi cation Clinton Support Trump Support Johnson Support Liberal 87.5% 4.0% 8.5% Conservative 8.9% 81.1% 10.0% Moderate 54.8% 28.3% 16.9% Other / Don't Know 35.4% 45.9% 19.1%
Q5: "Generally speaking, do you think of yourself as...?" Democrat Republican Independent Don't recall / Other
28.0% 27.7% 31.8% 12.5%
Margin of error ± 3.2 % N=709 Questions? Contact [email protected] Visit us at
redoakstrategic.com
2016 preferences by party a liation Party Identi cation Clinton Support Trump Support Johnson Support Democrat 90.6% 3.4% 6.0% Republican 6.3% 82.5% 11.2% Independent 43.9% 34.9% 21.1% Other / Don't Know 37.0% 45.9% 17.1%
Q6: "What is the highest level of education that you have completed?" Did not graduate High School High School Graduate Some college or 2-year college degree 4 years college degree / postgraduate degree
Margin of error ± 3.4%
1.4% 10.3% 29.3% 59.0%
N=709
2016 preferences by education Level of Education Clinton Support Trump Support Johnson Support Did not graduate High School 23.6% 68.7% 7.7% High School Graduate 40.5% 48.8% 10.6% Some college or 2-year college degree 34.1% 52.0% 13.9% 4 years college degree 56.6% 30.4% 13.0% / postgraduate degree
Q7: "What is your race or ethnic group?" Black White Hispanic Other / Don't wish to answer
Margin of error ± 3.0%
4.5% 74.2% 3.9% 17.5%
N=709
2016 preferences by race / ethnicity Race Clinton Support Trump Support Johnson Support Black 83.6% 11.5% 4.9% White 44.3% 42.3% 13.4% Hispanic 68.1% 17.0% 14.9% Other / Don't wish to answer 51.5% 36.0% 12.6%
Questions? Contact [email protected]
Visit us at
redoakstrategic.com
Technical Appendix Weighting and Coverage Error The survey is weighted over age, gender, and region in order to approximate the typical Internet using population of the United States. Google provided these demographic characteristics for respondents based on their IP address and online behavior, and Google also constructed the weightings based on these characteristics. Any respondents for whom gender, age or region could not be imputed were not included in our nal sample. This population without demographic data amounted to 320 out of 1514 respondents to our survey. This survey's main source of coverage error is that it excludes members of the population without access to the Internet or a smartphone.
Statistical Error and Sample Size The margin of error is reported on a question-by-question basis, in line with suggestions from both the American Association for Public Opinion Researchers and the practices of established polling rms.2 To determine the margin of error for each table, we take the maximum size of one half of the 95% con dence interval for each cell in the table with a substantive response (i.e. not Don't know / Other). We then multiply this number by the design bias, which in this case is 1.03.3 In other words, we believe that there is 95% chance that the true value of these estimates for the general population is within the margin of error of our reported number. Total surveyed population of likely voters with demographic data N = 926. However, since all of these tables subset the population in various ways to produce the estimates for each cell, we report sample sizes on a per table basis as well.
Response Rate The response rate for this survey was approximately 8.5%. After running our survey, we were able to compute the percent of people presented with the survey who answer the rst question, and then the number of people who continued on to each subsequent question for the survey. We could then multiply these values to determine the response rate for the survey on a given day, and then calculate a weighted average of the survey by day to calculate the overall response rate.
2 "AAPOR
Guidance on Reporting Precision for Nonprobability Samples", American Association for Public Opinion Researchers,qaccessed 8/9/16 eights) 2 3 Design bias de ned as 1 + ( MSD(W ean(W eights) )
Questions? Contact [email protected]
Visit us at
redoakstrategic.com
This document contains the full crosstab results for Red Oak Strategic's Google Consumer Surveys Presidential Poll, elded August 3rd through 9th, 2016. Question 1 is a screening question, so we report the simple unweighted distribution of answers. For the following questions, all crosstabs are subsetted to respondents who are "somewhat" or "very" likely to vote, with weighting based on age, gender, and region so the sample better re ects the demographic distributions of the United States population of Internet users. Following the crosstabs, a technical appendix contains information on weighting, the procedure for generating margin of error, the response rate, and other aspects of the survey.
Q1 [Screening Question]: "How likely are you to vote in the November US Presidential Election?" Very likely 53.7% Somewhat Likely 7.5% Not Likely 6.8% Not Registered 4.6% Other / Don't Know 6.3% Results for questions 2-7 reported from sample of respondents who are "Very Likely" or "Somewhat Likely" to vote, with weighting based on age, region, and gender
Q2: "If the US Presidential election were held today, who would you vote for?" Hillary Clinton Donald Trump Gary Johnson Other / Don't Know
36.6% 29.6% 9.8% 23.9%
Margin of error ± 3.3% N=926 2016 preferences among voters who prefer a candidate Hillary Clinton Donald Trump Gary Johnson
48.2% 38.9% 12.9%
Margin of error ± 3.9% N=709 1 Max
Samels, Data Analyst
Questions? Contact [email protected]
Visit us at
redoakstrategic.com
2016 preferences among voters who prefer a major party candidate Hillary Clinton Donald Trump
55.4% 44.7%
Margin of error ± 4.2% N=621 Results for questions 3-7 reported from sample of respondents who are "Very Likely" or "Somewhat Likely" to vote, with weighting based on age, region, and gender AND who express a preference for one of the three candidates running for president
Q3: "Who did you vote for in the 2012 US Presidential election?" Barack Obama Mitt Romney Don't recall / Other / Didn't vote
Margin of error ± 3.4%
43.5% 31.0% 25.5%
N=709
2016 preferences by 2012 vote 2012 Vote Clinton Support Trump Support Johnson Support Barack Obama 85.8% 6.0% 8.3% Mitt Romney 7.4% 80.0% 12.6% Other / Don't Know 22.7% 52.5% 24.9%
Q4: "Thinking about politics these days, how would you describe your own political viewpoint?" Conservative Liberal Moderate Don't recall / Other
27.9% 22.3% 33.1% 16.7%
Margin of error ± 3.3% N=709 2016 preferences by ideological identi cation Ideological Identi cation Clinton Support Trump Support Johnson Support Liberal 87.5% 4.0% 8.5% Conservative 8.9% 81.1% 10.0% Moderate 54.8% 28.3% 16.9% Other / Don't Know 35.4% 45.9% 19.1%
Q5: "Generally speaking, do you think of yourself as...?" Democrat Republican Independent Don't recall / Other
28.0% 27.7% 31.8% 12.5%
Margin of error ± 3.2 % N=709 Questions? Contact [email protected] Visit us at
redoakstrategic.com
2016 preferences by party a liation Party Identi cation Clinton Support Trump Support Johnson Support Democrat 90.6% 3.4% 6.0% Republican 6.3% 82.5% 11.2% Independent 43.9% 34.9% 21.1% Other / Don't Know 37.0% 45.9% 17.1%
Q6: "What is the highest level of education that you have completed?" Did not graduate High School High School Graduate Some college or 2-year college degree 4 years college degree / postgraduate degree
Margin of error ± 3.4%
1.4% 10.3% 29.3% 59.0%
N=709
2016 preferences by education Level of Education Clinton Support Trump Support Johnson Support Did not graduate High School 23.6% 68.7% 7.7% High School Graduate 40.5% 48.8% 10.6% Some college or 2-year college degree 34.1% 52.0% 13.9% 4 years college degree 56.6% 30.4% 13.0% / postgraduate degree
Q7: "What is your race or ethnic group?" Black White Hispanic Other / Don't wish to answer
Margin of error ± 3.0%
4.5% 74.2% 3.9% 17.5%
N=709
2016 preferences by race / ethnicity Race Clinton Support Trump Support Johnson Support Black 83.6% 11.5% 4.9% White 44.3% 42.3% 13.4% Hispanic 68.1% 17.0% 14.9% Other / Don't wish to answer 51.5% 36.0% 12.6%
Questions? Contact [email protected]
Visit us at
redoakstrategic.com
Technical Appendix Weighting and Coverage Error The survey is weighted over age, gender, and region in order to approximate the typical Internet using population of the United States. Google provided these demographic characteristics for respondents based on their IP address and online behavior, and Google also constructed the weightings based on these characteristics. Any respondents for whom gender, age or region could not be imputed were not included in our nal sample. This population without demographic data amounted to 320 out of 1514 respondents to our survey. This survey's main source of coverage error is that it excludes members of the population without access to the Internet or a smartphone.
Statistical Error and Sample Size The margin of error is reported on a question-by-question basis, in line with suggestions from both the American Association for Public Opinion Researchers and the practices of established polling rms.2 To determine the margin of error for each table, we take the maximum size of one half of the 95% con dence interval for each cell in the table with a substantive response (i.e. not Don't know / Other). We then multiply this number by the design bias, which in this case is 1.03.3 In other words, we believe that there is 95% chance that the true value of these estimates for the general population is within the margin of error of our reported number. Total surveyed population of likely voters with demographic data N = 926. However, since all of these tables subset the population in various ways to produce the estimates for each cell, we report sample sizes on a per table basis as well.
Response Rate The response rate for this survey was approximately 8.5%. After running our survey, we were able to compute the percent of people presented with the survey who answer the rst question, and then the number of people who continued on to each subsequent question for the survey. We could then multiply these values to determine the response rate for the survey on a given day, and then calculate a weighted average of the survey by day to calculate the overall response rate.
2 "AAPOR
Guidance on Reporting Precision for Nonprobability Samples", American Association for Public Opinion Researchers,qaccessed 8/9/16 eights) 2 3 Design bias de ned as 1 + ( MSD(W ean(W eights) )
Questions? Contact [email protected]
Visit us at
redoakstrategic.com
