SAGE WELCOMES

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SAGE WELCOMES Paul Taylor, Pew Research Center Mr. Paul Taylor is the Executive Vice President of the Pew Research Center, a non-partisan “fact tank” based in Washington, DC, that provides information on the issues, attitudes and trends shaping America and the world. He also serves as director of two of the seven projects of the Center –the Social and Demographic Trends project and the Pew Hispanic Center. Before joining the Pew Research Center, Mr. Taylor held positions as a newspaper reporter and public interest advocate. From 1996-2003, he served as President and Board Chairman of the Alliance for Better Campaigns, a public interest group he founded which seeked to improve elections by promoting campaigns in which the most useful information reached the greatest number of citizens in the most engaging ways. The Alliance’s honorary co-chairs were Walter Cronkite and former Presidents Gerald Ford and Jimmy Carter. Mr. Taylor graduated in 1970 with a B.A. in American Studies from Yale University, where he served as Executive Editor of the Yale Daily News.

America is Changing Presentation to Sage “Perspectives on the Future” Conference September 19, 2011 Austin, Texas

• Demographics • Economics • Social Values

U.S. Population Growth, 2000-2010

U.S. Population, 2000

281.4 million

U.S. Population, 2010

308.7 million

Growth

Percentage Growth

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

27.3 million

9.7%

U.S. Population by Race and Ethnicity, 2010 and 2000

2000

2010

Hispanic

Hispanic

12.5%

16.3%

Black

White

63.7%

White

Black 12.2%

69.1%

Asian 4.7% Other 3.0%

Source: Pew Research Center

12.1% Asian 3.6% Other 2.7%

Share of U.S. Population Growth by Race and Ethnicity, 2000-2010

Asian 16% Black

14%

Hispanic

92% of U.S. population growth between 2000 and 2010 was among non-whites

56% White 8% Other 7%

Source: Pew Research Center tabulations of U.S. Census Bureau data

U.S. Population, Actual and Projected Under Alternative Scenarios:1960–2050 (in millions)

1950

1960

Source: Pew Research Center

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

Immigrants and Population Growth

• 82% of the growth in the U.S. population by mid-century will be due to immigrants arriving from 2005 and 2050 and their U.S.born descendants.

Source: Pew Research Center projections, 2008

Foreign-Born Share of U.S. Population, Actual and Projected:1850–2050 (% of total)

1840

1860

1880

1900

1920

1940

Note: Projections for 2005–2050 indicated by broken line. Source: Pew Research Center, 2008; Gibson and Jung (2006)

1960

1980

2000

2020

2040

2060

Americans Divided on Views of Immigrants (%) Do immigrants today strengthen our country because of their hard work and talents OR Are immigrants today a burden on our country because they take our jobs, housing and health care?

63

BURDEN 54

52

48 44 46 37

50 38

41

44 45

50 46 40

41

44 45 39

31 STRENGTHEN

Jul 94

Source: Pew Research Center, 1994-2011

Sep 00

Mar 06

Feb 11

Three Great Waves of Immigrants (% of total) European

Latin American

Northern Europe Wave,1840-1889

Asian

88

12

88

33

(14 million)

Southern/Eastern Europe Wave,1890-1919

(18 million)

Modern Wave,1965-2008

12

50

28

(40 million)

Notes: Immigrants from Canada and other areas not shown. Sources: Pew Research Center analysis of Integrated Public Use Microdata Samples for 1980,1990, and 2000 Censuses and 2008 American Community Survey. 1840-1919 numbers from Table 2 of Yearbook of Immigration Statistics,2008. Office of Immigration Statistics.

Hispanic Share Doubles to 29% by 2050 — Asian Share also Doubles Percent of Total Population

White* 3% 10%

4% 11%

5% 11%

6% 12%

Black*

9%

13%

Hispanic 5%

5%

14%

16%

12% 13%

13%

Asian* 6% 19%

7%

23%

8%

26%

9%

29%

13% 13% 13% 14% 13%

87%

1950

85%

1960

83%

1970

80%

1980

76%

1990

70%

2000

67%

2005

Source: Pew Hispanic Center population estimates & projections (2008) *Not Hispanic

65%

2010

60%

2020

56%

2030

52%

2040

47%

2050

Mexican-Born Population in the United States, 1850-2010 (thousands) 12,377 12,000 10,000

9,752

8,000 6,000 4,500 4,000 2,199 2,000

13 0 1850

42

78

222

1870

1890

1910

Source: Pew Research Center calculations of U.S. Census data

641

454

1930

1950

760

1970

1990

2010

Migration from Mexico, 2006-2010 (thousands)

1,050

844 658 557 404

2006

2007

2008

2009

Source: Pew Research Center estimates based on Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía data

2010

Mexican Views of Life in the United States Are on the Decline, 2009-2011 % saying life in the United States is ___ than in Mexico… Worse

2011

2009

Source: Pew Research Center

22

Better

44

14

57

The Mexican-American Population Boom: Births Overtake Immigration, 1980-2010 (millions) Births during decade

New immigrants during decade 7.2

4.7

4.7 4.2

2.7

3.1

1980-1990

1990-2000

Source: Pew Research Center tabulations of U.S. Census Bureau data

2000-2010

Mexican-American Population by Nativity and Legal Status, 2010 (millions; %)

Unauthorized 6.5 (21%) Native born 20.3 (64%)

Foreign born

11.5 (36%)

Authorized 5.0 (16%)

Source: Pew Research Center tabulations of U.S. Census Bureau data and estimates based on residual methodology applied to March Supplements to the Current Population Survey, 2009-2010

Intermarriage Trend, 1960-2008 % who married someone of a different race/ethnicity

15

14.6 11.2 Newly married 8.3

10

6.7

8.0

4.0

5

6.8

2.4

4.5 3.2

0 1960

1970

1980

1990

7.6

Currently married

2000

2010

Source: Newly married numbers for 1980 and earlier are calculated from 1980 Census, and other numbers are calculated from 2008 American Community Survey (ACS). Currently married numbers are from 2005 and 2008 ACS and U.S. Decennial Census data.

Intermarriage Rates, by Race and Ethnicity Newlyweds in 2008 who married someone of a different race/ethnicity (%)

30.8 25.7 15.5 8.9

White

Black

Hispanic

Source: Pew Research Center analysis of 2008 American Community Survey

Asian

Do You Think of Obama as Black or Mixed Race? (% saying…)

Black 27

All

Hispanic

52

24

White Black

Mixed race

55

53 34

23

61

Note: Question was worded “Do you mostly think of Obama as a black person or mostly as a person of mixed race?. Source: Pew Research Center race survey, conducted Oct 28-Nov30,2009 (N=2,884)

Elderly Share of U.S. Population, Actual and Projected: 1960–2050 (% of total)

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

2020 2030 2040 2050 2060

Note: Elderly are ages 65 and older. Projections for 2005–2050 indicated by broken line. Source: Pew Research Center, 2008

Total Dependency Ratio, Actual and Projected: 1960–2050 (Children and older adults per 100 persons of working age )

80 70 60 50

Notes: Working ages are 18 to 64 years. Elderly are ages 65 and older. Projections for 2005–2050 indicated by broken line. Source: Pew Research Center, 2008

21.9

Japan

19.9

Italy

19.3

Germany Spain

16.6

France

16.5

Ukraine

16.4 16.0

United Kingdom

14.0

Russia Poland

13.5

Canada

13.5

Global Aging, Selected Nations Share of population (%) ages 65 and older, 2008

12.6

United States

10.0

Argentina Korea, South

9.9

China

8.1

Vietnam

7.0

Thailand

7.0

Brazil

6.0

Turkey

5.9

Morocco

5.7

Mexico

5.6

Myanmar

5.6

Indonesia

5.5

Colombia

5.1

India

5.1

Source: Data extracted from PRB 2008 World Population Data Sheet.

Don’t Worry, Grandma, We’ll Take Care of You Should families allow elderly parents to move in with them if they want to? (%)

A responsibility

Not a responsibility 63

Millennial (18-25)

67

Gen X (26-41) Boomer (42-60) Silent (61+)

33 30

55 38

Source: Pew Research Center survey report, 2005

41 52

U.S Labor Force is Getting Older

• 93% of the growth in the U.S. labor force from 2006 to 2016 will be among workers ages 55 and older. -- Bureau of Labor Statistics

Employment-to-Population Ratio by Age, 1981-2011 (%) 100 90 AGES 25-29

80 70

AGES 16+

60 50 40 30 20

AGES 65+

10 0 1981

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

1986

1991

1996

2001

2006

2011

Growing Older, Feeling Younger

Averages for felt age vs. actual age 90

82

80 70

71

60

% who say …

50

Actual age

Felt age

40 30 20

What Age Would You Like to Live To?

24 23

10 0 18-29

30-49

50-64

65-74

Note: Asked of all 2,969 adults in the survey.

Source: Pew Social & Demographic Trends, 2009

75+

70 and under 71-80 81-90 91-100 Over 100

7 19 28 21 8

Mean age

89

Work Because You Need To? It Depends On Your Age % of workers who say they work because they …

Need the money 49

Ages 16-64 65 and older

Want to work

17

20 54

Both 31 27

Note: Asked of 1,140 respondents employed full time or part time. “Don’t know/Refused” responses are not shown. Source: Pew Social & Demographic Trends, 2009

For Older Adults, a Gentler Recession 18-49

50-64

65+ 68

Cut back spending in past year

59 36

Had trouble getting / affording medical care in past year

23 21 7 44

Lost money on investments in past year

66 43 67

Say recession will make it harder to meet retirement needs Are "very satisfied" with their financial situation Say recession has caused stress in family*

Source: Pew Research Center, 2009

75

56 22 22 31 52 58 38

Confidence in Retirement Income Declines, 2009-2010 (%) Overall, how confident are you that you will have enough income and assets to last throughout your retirement years?

Very confident

May-10

Feb-09

Source: Pew Research Center

23

Somewhat confident

41

30

Not too/Not at all

32

41

26

Most Americans Say Older People Have Better Moral Values than Younger People … Who has the better moral values?

Older 70%

Young people

4% 10%

Neither/DK/ Ref.(VOL)

Source: Pew Research Center, 2009

people

16% Similar

…But Americans See Young People as Having More Racial Tolerance Who has the better attitudes toward other races and groups?

Older

Young people

people

47%

19%

13% Neither/DK/ Ref.(VOL) Source: Pew Research Center, 2009

21% Similar

Fewer Americans Are Seeing Conflicts Between Young People and Older People How much conflict is there between young people and older people?

NOT VERY STRONG/NO CONFLICTS

53

42

55

41 VERY STRONG/STRONG CONFLICTS

Feb 92

68

Feb 00

Source: Pew Research Center and General Social Survey, 1992-2009

26

Jul 09

Civilian Labor Force by Race and Ethnicity, 2010-2050 (Projected)

2010

2050 Asian 8%

Asian 5% Black 12% Hispanic 14%

Black 14% NonHispanic White 68% Hispanic 24%

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2005

Non-Hispanic White 51%

Twenty-to-One: Median Net Worth of Households by Race and Ethnicity, 2009 $113,149

Whites

$6,325

$5,677

Hispanics

Blacks

Source: Pew Research Center tabulations of Survey of Income and Program Participation data

Percentage Decline in Household Median Net Worth by Race and Ethnicity, 2005-2009 (in 2009 dollars) Whites

Hispanics

Blacks

-16%

-53% -66%

Source: Pew Research Center tabulations of Survey of Income and Program Participation data

Share of 18- to 24-Year-Olds Enrolled in College by Race and Ethnicity, 1967-2010 (%) 70 Asian 62.2

60 50

White 43.3 Black 38.0 Hispanic 31.9

40 30 20 10

0 1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007 2010

Source: Pew Research Center tabulations of Survey of Income and Program Participation data

Americans Think They Are Better off than Their Parents … (%) Compared to your parents when they were the age you are now, do you think your own standard of living now is … ?

64

62

65

BETTER OFF 70 68

66

66

64 57

13

Jan 94

15

Jan 96

13

12

Jan 98

Jan 00

12 11 WORSE OFF Jan 02

Jan 04

Source: Pew Research Center and General Social Survey, 1994-2011

12 Jan 06

15

Jan 08

17

61

13

Jan 10 Mar 11

… And They Think Their Children Will Be Better off than Them (%) When your children are at the age you are now, do you think their standard of living will be … ?

BETTER OFF

55 45

20

61 53

57

51

47

45

Jan 96

48

26

22

20 12

Jan 94

59

Jan 98

10

10

Jan 00

Jan 02

21

14 14 WORSE OFF Jan 04

Source: Pew Research Center and General Social Survey, 1994-2011

Jan 06

Jan 08

Jan 10 Mar 11

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