Saudi Arabian Cement 14 January 2016 PDF

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Saudi Arabian Cement Event Update

January 14, 2016

Subdued Growth Priced-in The recent announcements from Saudi cement producers detailing the possible impact of hike in fuel costs are a welcome move from an investor perspective. With an additional cost impact of SAR 514 million for 2016, a low margin scenario is the way forward. In such a tightening situation, growth in the cement sector could be subdued. The data compiled from Bloomberg and our estimates (RC cement coverage stocks) suggest a sector revenue growth of +1% for 2016E. On the other hand, earnings are expected to decline by -8% over the next 12 months. Nonetheless, the decline was imminent following subsidy cuts affecting margins in the range of 4-5% starting from gross margins to net margins. Despite such concerns, Saudi cement sector still has the highest margins versus global peers. In our view, a rebound is expected, once macro situation especially oil price improves. With TASI taking a beating and sector breaching its five-year lows, stocks were hard-hit as prices reached multi year lows. We believe further drop is an opportunity as negatives are getting priced-in. Valuations are attractive for a few stocks with Yanbu Cement at 2016E P/E of 8.7x and dividend yield of 10.7% while Qassim Cement is at 2016E P/E of 9.4x and 8.0% yield.

Energy costs to increase overall opex by +8% Y/Y in 2016 Our analysis based on available Bloomberg estimate indicates +8% Y/Y increase in manufacturing costs. The combined costs is expected to reach SAR 7.26 billion in 2016 from SAR 6.74 billion in 2015, an increase of SAR 514 million. The absolute impact of the hike is relative to the size, thus the impact is wider for Saudi Cement at SAR 68 million versus City Cement at SAR 18 million. As a percentage of 2016E sector revenues, this accounts for 4%. For our coverage (Saudi Cement, Qassim Cement, Southern Cement, Yanbu Cement and Yamama Cement), an impact of SAR 270 million is announced and affect gross margins negatively by 450 bps in 2016. Exhibit 1: Financial Impact in 2016 Due to Fuel Hike (SAR Mln)

68 60

40 34

35

Northern

Jouf

43

45

47

50

29 21

24

18

City

Tabuk

Hail

Najran

Arabian

Eastern

Yanbu

Qassim Southern Yamama

Saudi

Source: Tadawul

Fuel price hike to be a new normal The partial lifting of feedstock subsidies for natural gas (methane) with price increasing to USD 1.25/mmbtu after a gap of nearly 22 years has put industrial users under the dock. Alongside natural gas, price hikes followed for heavy fuel and diesel as well, though exact details are not known. Barring fuel charges impact, the tariffs for electricity and water consumption has also witnessed an increase. Industrial users who use electricity between 1,000-8,000 Kwh/month is charged with a 15%-30% hike based on a slab pricing, while water consumption has also witnessed a phenomenal hike. However, these are expected to be between 0.5%-1.0% of total sales and not a great concern.

Santhosh Balakrishnan

Khalid Abdullah Almadhyan

[email protected]

[email protected]

+966-11-203-6809

+966-11-203-6813

|1 Riyad Capital is licensed by the Saudi Arabia Capital Markets Authority (No. 07070-37)

Saudi Arabian Cement Event Update

Efficiency is the new theme for cement sector The subsidy cuts are unlikely to reverse and we believe producers who can introduce better methods to improve efficiency would be able to reap more benefits. Some of the producers who run old lines (inception before 2000) will benefit less as compared to new age producers (inception after 2000) due to technological upgrades and relative efficiency. Saudi cement producers are mulling alternate energy options such as Refuse Derived Fuel (RDF) and Waste Heat Recovery (WHR), time would tell what scale of efficiency could be achieved. For example, WHR could utilize energy from other production lines and re-utilize up to 22-24% of energy which otherwise would have been wasted in old process. Such needs arise when Aramco has been stringent in allocating gas to cement sector due to priority to other development sectors and as a result, capex in the sector has become constrained. The allocation of additional fuel being a distinct possibility, WHR would partially serve the purpose.

Margin impact varies across producers but for industry, a decline of 400 bps A combination of pricing pressure, low utilization rates coupled with energy cost is set to take a toll on sector profitability in 2016. Gross profit for the sector is expected to witness a Y/Y drop of -9% to SAR 6.7 billion in 2016 from SAR 7.3 billion in 2015. Gross margins are likely to squeeze by -400 bps to 47% from 51% earlier. For our coverage (refer to exhibit 6 in appendix), we expect a decline of -370 bps taking gross margins to 53% in 2016 from 57% in 2015. Exhibit 2: Gross Margins Impact for RC Coverage

Exhibit 3: Gross Margins Impact for Cement Sector

58%

52%

52%

52% 51%

57%

57%

57%

51%

55% 47% 53%

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015E

2011

2016E

Source: Company reports, RC estimates

2012

2013

2014

2015E

2016E

Source: Company reports, bloomberg, RC estimates

Earnings set to decline by -8% in 2016; payouts to stretch Earnings are expected to witness a -8% decline for the sector to SAR 5.5 billion in 2016 from SAR 5.9 billion in 2015. For the companies under our coverage, we expect a -7% decline in earnings for 2016. Hitherto, margins for the sector stands at 41%, a decline of -500 bps from 46% earlier, while we expect our coverage stocks to witness a decline of -400 bps to 49%. Such drop in earnings could result in payouts stretched to 84% in 2016 from 77% for 2015 leaving no room for incremental payouts as earnings come under pressure. Exhibit 4: Earnings (SAR Mln) and Y/Y Growth for RC Coverage

4.4

4.5

4.2

20.0%

Exhibit 5: Earnings (SAR Mln) and Y/Y Growth for Sector

6.5

3.9

4.0

15.0%

15.0%

6.2

4.2

6.0

5.8

5.9

5.8

3.7

3.5

10.0%

3.5

5.5

10.0% 5.5

5.2

5.0%

5.0% 5.0

0.0%

-5.0%

4.5

-5.0%

-10.0%

4.0

3.0 0.0% 2.5 2.0 2011

2012

2013

Source: Company reports, RC estimates

2014

2015

2016

-10.0% 2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

Source: Company reports, bloomberg, RC estimates

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Saudi Arabian Cement Event Update

Good dividend bet We are increasingly turning positive on the sector due to its valuation story and defensive nature. With stock prices nearing 4-year lows and sector breaching its fiveyear bottom, the negative returns of -34% in 2015 and -8% YTD suggest some rebound. Valuations for the sector are below TASI, though slight expansion is expected following earnings downgrade from street estimates. Sector’s 2016E yields above 7.0% (TTM yields at 8.5%) and P/E of 10.1x (TTM P/E at 9.4x) would be a reasonable valuation profile for stocks under a defensive strategy and attractive at volatile times. We expect further re-rating due to speedy market sell-off, while valuation discounts versus TASI is widening, which turns our neutral view to mildly positive. We will be publishing our detailed estimates and target prices for Yamama Cement, Saudi Cement and Southern Cement in our forthcoming 4Q first-look notes. We have already revised Yanbu Cement with a target price of SAR 58.00 and Qassim Cement with SAR 78.00. Table 1: Sector Valuation At A Glance (TTM)

Com pany NMm e Saudi Cement Southern Province Cement Co Yanbu Cement Co Yamama Cement Co Qassim Cement Co/The Arabian Cement Co/Saudi Arabia Eastern Province Cement Co Najran Cement Co City Cement Co Northern Region Cement Co Hail Cement Co Tabuk Cement Co Al Jouf Cement Co Sector Median*

Price (SAR) 61.00 66.04 40.89 28.28 64.00 43.29 29.30 11.99 13.50 13.64 12.41 14.56 9.50

Mcap SAR Mln

EV SAR Mln

P/E

P/B

P/S

9,333 9,246 6,440 5,727 5,760 4,329 2,520 2,038 2,554 2,455 1,215 1,310 1,235

9,385 9,790 6,631 4,612 4,986 4,156 2,210 2,801 2,237 3,533 1,330 1,740 2,045

9.0x 9.4x 8.1x 9.3x 9.8x 7.3x 7.8x 7.6x 11.1x 12.7x 9.8x 13.5x 20.2x

3.0x 3.2x 1.8x 1.5x 3.1x 1.4x 1.1x 1.0x 1.2x 1.3x 1.2x 1.1x 0.9x

4.7x 4.6x 4.1x 4.5x 5.7x 2.6x 2.7x 2.0x 4.9x 2.1x 3.4x 4.6x 4.6x

5.6x 5.7x 5.5x 5.2x 6.5x 3.3x 3.2x 3.8x 5.9x 3.5x 5.0x 8.1x 9.8x

8.6x 9.8x 8.4x 7.8x 9.8x 6.7x 6.3x 8.7x 9.6x 10.1x 8.7x 14.0x 18.6x

9.8 7.6 7.4 10.6 9.4 9.2 8.5 8.4 7.4 8.8 4.8 6.2 NA

54,162

55,456

9.4x

1.3x

4.5x

5.5x

8.7x

8.5

(8%)

EV/ EV/ Div.Yl Sales EBITDA d

YTD

52 WkHi (SAR)

52 WkLo (SAR)

(6%) (6%) (6%) (10%) (9%) (9%) (8%) (18%) (10%) (9%) (14%) 1% (10%)

102.50 110.00 72.25 52.00 101.00 82.50 62.50 31.80 27.30 23.80 26.70 27.40 18.35

53.00 64.50 35.90 27.20 61.75 40.30 27.60 11.90 13.00 13.00 12.05 13.80 9.20

Source: Bloomberg, Market Cap and EV are total

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Saudi Arabian Cement Event Update

Appendix Exhibit 6: Sector Gross Margin Trends

Qassim Cement Co

Saudi Cem ent Co

62%

62%

61% 61%

59%

61% 55%

56%

2011

2012

56%

59% 59%

2011

59%

2012

2013

2014

2015E

2016E

Southern Province Cement Co

2014

2015E

2016E

Yam am a Cement Co

58%

58%

57%

56%

57%

57%

2013

54%

55%

53%

53% 47%

51%

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015E

2016E

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015E

2016E

RC Cem ent Coverage

Yanbu Cem ent Co

58%

57%

58%

55%

57%

57%

55%

55%

53% 51% 53%

49%

2011 2011

2012

2013

2014

2015E

2012

2013

2014

52%

52%

52% 51%

45%

2016E

Sector

Non-RC Cem ent Coverage 46% 45%

2015E

2016E

52%

45%

43%

47%

40%

2011 2011

2012

2013

2014

2015E

2012

2013

2014

2015E

2016E

2016E

Source: Company reports, bloomberg, RC estimates

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Stock Rating

Strong Buy

Buy

Hold

Sell

Not Rated

Expected Total Return ≥ 25%

Expected Total Return ≥ 15%

Expected Total Return < 15%

Overvalued

Under Review/ Restricted

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