Saudi Arabian Mining Co. (Ma'aden) - Aljazira Capital

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Saudi Arabian Mining Co. (Ma’aden) Result Flash Note 3Q-2016

October 2016

Ma’aden: Q3-2016 results below estimates due to lower than expected sales and increase in finance charge; however, the company’s ability to achieve higher control on OPEX and a reduction in production costs contributes positively to our future outlook on MA’ADEN. “Neutral” recommendation is reiterated with higher PT. Amount in SAR mn; unless specified Sales revenues Net profit EPS (SAR)

Forecasts 3Q-16 2,360.6 116.50 0.10

Actual 3Q-16 2,316.1 83.59 0.07

Deviation (%) -1.8% -28.2% (0.03)

The influence of sales decline was partially offset by a 10% reduction in production cost and 24.4% decline in OPEX for 3Q2016: 3Q2016 net profit came below our expectation and showed a deviation of 28.2% from our estimates and 29.5% from the market consensus of SAR 118.5mn. Saudi Arabian Mining Company’s (Ma’aden) reported a net profit of SAR 83.59mn; (EPS; SAR 0.07); indicating an increase of 4.6%YoY and a fall of 36.9%QoQ. The company attributed the weak YoY result to i) Sales declined by 9% mainly due to the decline in the average realized prices of ammonium phosphate fertilizers (APF) and ammonia ii) decrease in sales volume of aluminum, despite the favorable effect of increase in the average realized prices of gold and aluminum iii) Increase in financing costs by 87% YoY due to the increase in SAIBOR/LIBOR interest rates vi) increased losses in jointly controlled entities (SAMAPCO and MBCC). However, production cost decline of 10%YoY, helped the company in lowering its OPEX and higher short-T investment income contributed positively to 3Q2016 performance. The company’s initiative to reduce the OPEX led to a reduction in exploration, technical services expenses and SG & A expenses by 24.4%YoY. The company reported a 20.1%YoY increase in operating profit for 3Q2016 to SAR 306.6mn, which is in-line with AJC estimate of 302.5mn; however, we believe that despite an increase in income from short-term investments, the increases in jointly controlled entities losses and finance charges have negatively impacted the bottom line in 3Q2016. For 3Q2016, finance expenses stood at SAR 208.1mn, above our estimate of SAR 199.5mn, and actual finance expenses of SAR 197.6mn in 2Q2016 and SAR 111.0mn in 3Q2015. Share in net losses of jointly controlled entity (SAMAPCO and MBCC) stood at SAR 31.1mn, significantly higher than SAR 14.7mn in 2Q2016. This is despite the start of commercial operations at the Jabal Sayid Copper Mine (MBCC) on July 1, 2016, which indicates of losses for one more quarter before switching to profitability. Gross profit declined by 5.7%QoQ to SAR 509.7mn. This is 1.8% lower than our estimate of SAR 519.3mn, which can be mainly attributed to lower than expected Aluminum sales. Gross margin stood at 22.0% in 3Q2016 vs. 20.6% in 3Q2015 owing to 10%YoY reduction in cost of sales through lower raw material costs which led to higher gross margin. Operating profit rose by 20.1%YoY to SAR 306.6mn, this is in-line with our estimate of SAR 302.0mn. The YoY lower OPEX is attributed to the company’s initiative to reduce the operating cost, which led to a reduction of 67% in exploration and technical services expenses, 29% drop in general and administrative expenses and 16% decline in selling, marketing and logistic expenses. Poor performance on Aluminum sales and low prices of phosphate fertilizer. Aluminum: The company witnessed 4%YoY decline of primary aluminum sales. However, the produced volume witnessed 2% increase due to higher efficiency and higher volumes from the recycling facility. Aluminum average prices stood at USD 1,631/ton in 3Q2016 from around USD 1,603/ton in 3Q2015 and USD 1580/ton in 2Q2016. Phosphate: In 3Q2016, sales of ammonia and di-ammonium phosphate (DAP) increased 14%YoY and 7%YoY respectively. Ammonia average sales price fell 37.4%YoY and 25.0%QoQ. DAP-Fertilizer sales price plunged by 29.7%YoY and 4.1%QoQ owing to a large surplus worldwide and weak fundamental in the industry. Gold: Sales of gold during the quarter increased significantly by 33% due to the commencement of Ad Duwayhi mine on April 1, 2016. Gold prices increased by 5.2%YoY to average at around USD 1,335/ounce in 3Q2016. According to the company, Ad Duwayhi production is expected to increase, averaging 180,000 ounce/year capacity during the life of mine, while further reducing in the cost/ounce is expected.

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Neutral

Recommendation Current Price* (SAR)

35.00

Target Price (SAR)*

37.00

5.7%

Upside / (Downside)

*prices as of 20 of October 2016 th

Key Financials SARmn

FY14

FY15

FY16E

FY17E

10,792 78.5% 1,357 -19.3% 1.16

10,956 1.5% 605.2 -55.4% 0.52

9,792 -10.6% 593.2 -2.0% 0.51

13,611 39.0% 1,648.2 177.8% 1.41

(unless specified)

Revenues Growth % Net Income* Growth % EPS*

Source: Company reports, Aljazira Capital *After minority interest

Key Ratios SARmn (unless specified)

Gross Margin EBITDA Margin Net Margin P/E P/B EV/EBITDA (x) ROE ROA

FY14

FY15

FY16E

FY17E

28.9% 32.7% 12.6% 26.9x 1.09x 19.1x 5.93% 2.34%

22.3% 32.1% 5.5% 64.0x 1.13x 19.3x 2.38% 0.96%

22.5% 37.9% 6.1% 68.9x 1.13x 21.5x 1.82% 0.74%

25.7% 39.2% 12.1% 24.8x 1.07x 14.2x 4.88% 2.09%

Source: Company reports, Aljazira Capital

Shareholders Pattern Shareholders Pattern Public Pension Agency General Organization for Social Insurance Public Investment Fund Public

Holding 7.45% 7.98% 49.99% 34.58%

Source: Company reports, Aljazira Capital

Key Market Data Market Cap(bn) YTD % 52 Week (High ) 52 Week (Low) Shares Outstanding (mn)

40.89 5.5% 43.20 25.70 1,168.48 Source: Bloomberg, Aljazira Capital

We remain “Neutral” on Ma’aden with higher PT of SAR 37.0/share indicating a potential upside of 5.7%: Ma’aden Co. is expected to post SAR 593.2mn in net income (0.51 EPS) for 2016, recording a decline of -0.2%YoY due to the impact of higher energy cost and low level in product price. However, due to our optimistic outlook of higher control on OPEX and production costs; we maintain our “Neutral” on the stock with higher PT. The company is trading at a forward PE and PB of 24.8x and 1.07x respectively based on our 2017 earnings forecast. Ma’aden is considered to be one of the highly leveraged companies in the Saudi market, with long-term obligation of SAR 53.5bn. Almost 25% shares of the loan are expected to be settled in 2023E. We expect the company to remain highly leveraged in the near to mediumterm, and won’t have capacity to pay dividend in 2016/17 year. However, the margins are expected to positively expand after the commencement of commercial production of Wa’ad Al Shamal, which may lower the impact of finance cost and depreciation on the company’s net income. Analyst

Jassim Al-Jubran +966 11 2256248 [email protected]

RESEARCH DIVISION

Acting Head of Research

Talha Nazar +966 11 2256250 [email protected]

+966 11 2256374 [email protected]

Analyst

Jassim Al-Jubran +966 11 2256248 [email protected]

Waleed Al-jubayr +966 11 2256146 [email protected]

BROKERAGE AND INVESTMENT CENTERS DIVISION RESEARCH DIVISION

Sultan Al Kadi

Analyst

General Manager – Brokerage Services &

AGM-Head of international and institutional

AGM- Head of Western and Southern Region Investment Centers & ADC

sales

brokerage

Brokerage

Alaa Al-Yousef

Luay Jawad Al-Motawa

Mansour Hamad Al-shuaibi

+966 11 2256060 [email protected]

+966 11 2256277 [email protected]

+966 12 6618443 [email protected]

AGM-Head of Sales And Investment Centers

AGM-Head of Qassim & Eastern Province

Central Region

Abdullah Al-Rahit

Sultan Ibrahim AL-Mutawa

+966 16 3617547 [email protected]

+966 11 2256364 [email protected]

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