Saudi Arabian Mining Co. (Ma'aden) - Aljazira Capital

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Saudi Arabian Mining Co. (Ma’aden) Result Flash Note 2Q-2016

July 2016

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Ma’aden: Q2-2016 results below estimates. Operating profits was in-line with AJC estimate; however higher than expected finance expenses and deprecation contributed negatively in the quarter result. “Neutral” recommendation. Amount in SAR mn; unless Forecasts Actual Deviation specified 2Q-16 2Q-16 (%) Sales revenues 2,437.6 2,546.0 4.4% Net profit 159.3 132.45 -16.8% EPS (SAR)* 0.14 0.11 Higher than expected sales volume and improving OPEX were offset by higher finance expenses in 2Q2016: Q2-2016 net profit came below our expectation and showed a deviation of -16.8% from our estimates and -21.9% from the market consensus of SAR 169.6mn. Saudi Arabian Mining Company’s (Ma’aden) reported a net profit of SAR 132.5mn; (EPS; SAR 0.11); indicating a decline of 50.9%YoY and 21.6%QoQ. The company attributed the weak YoY result to 15% declined in sales revenues due to lower commodity prices despite of the higher sales volumes of aluminium and gold. Cost of sales witnessed a decline of 11%YoY through lower raw material costs. Furthermore, the company’s initiative to reduce the OPEX led to a reduction in exploration, technical services expenses and SG & A expenses by 25.9%YoY. The company reported a 30.1%YoY decline in operating profit for 2Q2016 to SAR 326.5mn, which is in-line with AJC estimate of 325.2mn; however, we believe that despite an increase in income from short term investments and the lower losses in (SAMAPCO), the increase in finance charges by 80%YoY and higher zakat provision has negatively impacted the bottom line in 2Q2016.

Recommendation

‘Neutral’

Current Price* (SAR)

36.0 32.80

Target Price (SAR)

-9.7%

Upside / (Downside)

*prices as of 24th of July 2016

Key Financials FY14

FY15

FY16E FY17E

10,792 10,956 78.5% 1.5% 1,357 605.2 -19.3% -55.4% 1.16 0.52

10,230 14,143 -6.6% 38.2% 775.7 1,672.6 28.2% 115.6% 0.66 1.43

SARmn (unless specified) Revenues Growth % Net Income* Growth % EPS*

Source: Company reports, Aljazira Capital, *After minority interest

Key Ratios SARmn (unless specified) FY14

FY15

FY16E FY17E

Gross Margin EBITDA Margin Net Margin P/E P/B EV/EBITDA (x) ROE ROA

22.3% 32.1% 5.5% 64.0x 1.13x 19.3x 2.38% 0.96%

23.5% 37.7% 7.6% 54.5x 1.19x 21.2x 2.61% 1.07%

28.9% 32.7% 12.6% 26.9x 1.09x 19.1x 5.93% 2.34%

25.9% 39.0% 11.8% 25.1x 1.13x 14.2x 5.76% 2.47%

Gross profit rose by 9.7%QoQ to SAR 540.9mn. This is 5.9% lower than our estimate of SAR 575.4mn, which is mainly attributed to higher than expected deprecation. Gross margin stood at 21.2% in 2Q2016 vs. 20.6% in 2Q2015 owing to 11% reduction in cost of sales through lower raw material costs which led to higher gross margin. Operating profit Source: Company reports, Aljazira Capital rose by 7.9%YoY to SAR 326.7mn, 0.5% higher than our expectation of SAR 325.1mn. The YoY lower OPEX is attributed to the company’s initiative to reduce the operating cost, which led to a reduction of 65% in exploration and technical services expenses, 27% SAIBOR-6M Performance drop in general and administrative expenses and 17% decline in selling, marketing and 2.3 logistic expenses. 2.1

Poor performance on low prices of ammonium phosphate fertilizer.

15 1/ 22 /1 6 2/ 22 /1 6 3/ 22 /1 6 4/ 22 /1 6 5/ 22 /1 6 6/ 22 /1 6

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1.9 1.7 1.5 1.3 1.1 0.9 0.7

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Rising lending rates led to 80%YoY increase in finance charges for the company: The Saudi interbank offer rate (SAIBOR 6 Month) has been steadily increasing from the beginning of 2015. The SAIBOR 6 Month rate rose from 0.8% in July 2015 to 2.3% in July 2016. The Federal reserve raised rates for the first time in nine years by 25 bps to 0.5% in last December, which also led to the rise in the SAIBOR. The rate is rising also because flow of oil money into banks have shrunk and because the government is borrowing money from banks to cover a budget deficit created by cheap oil. The rise in SAIBOR has negatively impacted Ma’aden due to highly leveraged balance sheet with long-term obligation of SAR 51.5bn. The company reported a finance charge of SAR 198mn; indicating an increase of 80%YoY and 28%QoQ.

Source: Company reports, Aljazira Capital

Key Market Data

Aluminum: The company has 6%YoY increase of primary aluminium sales. Aluminum Market Cap (bn) average prices stood at USD 1,580/ton in 2Q2016 from around USD 1,766/ton in 2Q2015 YTD % and USD 1514/ton in 1Q2016. 52 Week (High ) Phosphate: In 2Q2016, sales of ammonia increased 10%YoY, where diammonium 52 Week (Low) phosphate (DAP) sales were in-line with same quarter last year. Ammonia sales price fell Shares Outstanding (mn) 16.6%YoY, but increase by 6.9%QoQ. DAP-Fertilizer sales price plunged by 26.7%YoY and 6.9%QoQ owing to a large surplus worldwide and weak fundamental in the industry.

45.2 16.7% 43.20 25.70 1,168.48 Source: Company reports, Aljazira Capital

Shareholders Pattern

Gold: Sales of gold during the quarter increased significantly by 54%YoY due to the Holding commencement of Ad Duwayhi mine on April 1, 2016. Gold prices averaged at about Shareholders Pattern 7.45% Public Pension Agency USD 1,254/ounce in 2Q2016. 7.98% General Organization for Social Insurance New projects, a new ray of hope: 49.99% Public Investment Fund Ad Duwayhi: Ad Duwayhi, the largest gold mine in Saudi Arabia, initiated commercial Public 34.58% Source: Company reports, Aljazira Capital production on 1st April 2016. The rated production capacity of Ad-Duwayhi is 180,000 ounces per annum and over 1.9mn ounces over the life of the mine. According to the company, production capacity will gradually ramp up to reach 100% by the end 2016. Jabal Sayid: Commercial operations began at the Jabal Sayid Copper Mine on July 1, 2016. The mine will produce over 45,000 tons of copper annually. Reserves stand at nearly 635,000 tons, while it’s life is estimated at 16 years.

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Analyst

Jassim Al-Jubran +966 11 2256248 [email protected]

RESEARCH DIVISION

Acting Head of Research

Talha Nazar +966 11 2256115 [email protected]

+966 11 2256374 [email protected]

Analyst

Jassim Al-Jubran +966 11 2256248 [email protected]

Waleed Al-jubayr +966 11 2256146 [email protected]

BROKERAGE AND INVESTMENT CENTERS DIVISION RESEARCH DIVISION

Sultan Al Kadi

Analyst

General Manager – Brokerage Services &

AGM-Head of international and institutional

AGM- Head of Western and Southern Region Investment Centers & ADC

sales

brokerage

Brokerage

Alaa Al-Yousef

Luay Jawad Al-Motawa

Abdullah Q. Al-Misbani

+966 11 2256060 [email protected]

+966 11 2256277 [email protected]

+966 12 6618400 [email protected]

AGM-Head of Sales And Investment Centers

AGM-Head of Qassim & Eastern Province

Central Region

Abdullah Al-Rahit

Sultan Ibrahim AL-Mutawa

+966 16 3617547 [email protected]

+966 11 2256364 [email protected]

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RATING TERMINOLOGY

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