Session 6
Nuclear Human Resources Key to Sustainability of Nuclear Energy 28 February 2017
Bum-Jin CHUNG Kyung Hee Univ., KOREA [email protected] Pacific Forum CSIS NEEG Session 6 February 28, 2017, Singapore
Department of Nuclear Engineering Kyung Hee University. KOREA
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Bum-Jin Chung is a Professor of Nuclear Engineering Department in Kyung Hee University, Korea since March 2013. He received his Ph.D. in 1994 from Seoul National University, Korea on the topic of AP-600 containment cooling capability assessment. He has worked for Korean Ministry of Science and Technology (1995-2002) and studied at the University of Manchester, U.K (1999-2001). He had been a Professor of Nuclear and Energy Engineering Department in Jeju National University, Korea (2002-2013) and he has leading the nuclear R&D division in the National Research Foundation of Korea (2012-2013). He has published a series of articles on the experimental researches of the condensation phenomena. His current research interests are the analogy experiment method using electrochemical systems, natural and mixed convection heat transfers on various geometries in application to nuclear systems such as the HTGR (High Temperature Gas Cooled Reactor) and SFR(Sodium-cooled Fast Reactor) safety systems. Also he has been expanding his realm of research on severe accident phenomena applying the analogy experiment methodology. Beside the technical interests, he has deep interest on the nuclear manpower demand and supply and education issues. He has published a series of paper regarding the issues. He has founded and led the NtUss (Nuclear technology Undergraduate student society) and participated in the various consultations for Korean government, IAEA, and OECD/NEA. He has been working actively as the members of the governmental committees: Nuclear Safety Expert Committee of MEST (Ministry of Education, Science and Technology), Policy Advisory Committee of MEST, Presidential Mission Evaluation Committee of MEST, Electricity Demand and Supply Planning Committee of MKE (Ministry of Knowledge and Economy), etc. He has been participating in international expert meetings organized by the IAEA and the OECD. He is the editorial board member of the KNS (Korea Nuclear Society), KAIF (Korea Atomic Industry Forum) and writing articles for the newspapers.
Pacific Forum CSIS NEEG Session 6 February 28, 2017, Singapore
Department of Nuclear Engineering Kyung Hee University. KOREA
Introduction • World-wide Concerns regarding Nuclear Manpower Issue – At the dawn of New Millennium – Manpower shortage, Ageing, Low enrollment, Declination of Education and Training Institutes, etc. – National and International Activities
• Nuclear Renaissance – Arise of the Beginner countries – Potential Massive Need for Nuclear Manpower – A new dimension of the issue
• Fukushima NPP Accident – Delay of the Nuclear Renaissance – Delay of the Nuclear HRD
☞ Endanger the Sustainability of the NE! Pacific Forum CSIS NEEG Session 6 February 28, 2017, Singapore
Department of Nuclear Engineering Kyung Hee University. KOREA
Nature of the Issue •
Cross-cutting –
•
Manpower shortage signal ☞ Already problem! –
•
Not In My Term
Large and lasting investment ☞ Public sector –
•
Time lag between HR demand and development
NIMT problem for CEOs –
•
affects all aspects of nuclear fields
Education and Training : Low yield
Worldwide problem – –
propagation of the issue to less developed countries International cooperation
Pacific Forum CSIS NEEG Session 6 February 28, 2017, Singapore
Department of Nuclear Engineering Kyung Hee University. KOREA
Origination of the Issue • • •
Nuclear industry has relatively short history (~Half century). Rapid growth and massive recruitment in the early stage of nuclear industry development. Quick maturity and rare new employments. – Long employment of the 1st generation of nuclear experts
•
Suppression of new employment – Consolidation, Privatization, Restructuring, etc.
• Needs for New NPPs and Experts Cyclic Problem in Manpower Demand and Supply • Massive manpower demand for a very short period • Exhaustion of manpower demand for long period Pacific Forum CSIS NEEG Session 6 February 28, 2017, Singapore
Department of Nuclear Engineering Kyung Hee University. KOREA
A Four-Season Model Period
Spring
Summer
Autumn
Winter
1940-1950
1960-1970
1980
1990-2010
Events Physical
Org.
exploration, Military application
Peaceful use, Massive construction of NPPs
NPT, Regulation Cancellation of NPP construction Safety researches
Manhattan project
Increase due to industrialization
Decrease or Declination of stagnation in number Educational Org. and size Research oriented
Engineers (All-logies)
Few new recruitment Less public support Less enrolments in Science & Engineering Fields
Man Scientists power (Physicists,
Mathematicians, etc.)
Pacific Forum CSIS NEEG Session 6 February 28, 2017, Singapore
Existing facilities, Lacking vision, Nuclear Renaissance(?)
Retirements of 1st gen. nuclear experts Recruits from abroad
Department of Nuclear Engineering Kyung Hee University. KOREA
Manpower Issues BEFORE Renaissance • World-wide Concerns on Sustainability – – – –
Ageing of the 1st generation nuclear experts Massive retirements within next several years Declination of nuclear education due to lack of students Shortage of nuclear manpower supply
• Measures: – – – – –
Draw more young generations Extend the retirement age or Reemployment of the retired Improve manpower age distribution Develop and improve the supply side (E&T) More supports for supply side
Pacific Forum CSIS NEEG Session 6 February 28, 2017, Singapore
Department of Nuclear Engineering Kyung Hee University. KOREA
Manpower Issues AFTER Renaissance 1 • Needs for Nuclear Power – – – –
Climate Change → Low Carbon Energy Source Energy Demand Increase (2.5 times in 2050) Electric Energy Demand Increase Energy Security
• NPP Increase (WNA) – Constructions for 430 New NPPs by 2030 – Maintenance Market for 88 Aged NPPs
• Expanded Use of Nuclear Power – Small & Medium Size NPP for Distributed Source – Nuclear Hydrogen Generation
☞ Need for Nuclear Human Resources Development Pacific Forum CSIS NEEG Session 6 February 28, 2017, Singapore
Department of Nuclear Engineering Kyung Hee University. KOREA
Manpower Issues AFTER Renaissance 2 • Problems: – Massive need for manpower to meet the Renaissance – Proper portion of Nuclear Engineers – Difference in development stage among countries (Beginner countries & Mature countries) – More emphasis on nuclear safety
• Measures: – Expansion of Education and Training Institutes – Short term measures to run nuclear business without nuclear engineers – Long term strategy to bring up nuclear engineers – International Cooperation Pacific Forum CSIS NEEG Session 6 February 28, 2017, Singapore
Department of Nuclear Engineering Kyung Hee University. KOREA
Activities undertaken • OECD/NEA : Expert group studies – Nuclear Education & Training: Cause for Concern? (2000) – Nuclear Competence Building (2004) – Nuclear E & T: From Concern to Capability (2011)
• IAEA – NKM Conference and Activities (since 2002) – WNU (since 2003), ANENT
• U.S.A. and U.K. – National Academy (1990) and NEDHO report (1998) – DTI, Nuclear and Radiological Skills Study (2002)
• Still Concerns after a DECADE ! Pacific Forum CSIS NEEG Session 6 February 28, 2017, Singapore
Department of Nuclear Engineering Kyung Hee University. KOREA
Reviews • Simple list up of Recommendations (OECD/NEA 2000) • Wrong Priorities of programs (IAEA NKMC 2002) – Top priority activities vs. Additional activities • Digressions from the issue (Wider mark → Lost target) – Manpower shortage → Knowledge preservation → KM – Knowledge lost by massive retirement → All nuclear knowledge – Tacit knowledge → explicit knowledge
• Weak voice from younger generations • Goal Displacement – Original goals → Measures – (Measures = New goals) → New programs ? – Divert organizational resources Pacific Forum CSIS NEEG Session 6 February 28, 2017, Singapore
Department of Nuclear Engineering Kyung Hee University. KOREA
Some Insights from the Past • We tend to spend money for nuclear HRD programs rather than for the survey of nuclear manpower statistics. • We don’t review the outcome of the HRD program. • We tend to listen to and spend less for young generation and more for the current or old generation. • We tend to see the problem in general rather than in specific when formulating programs. • Industries tend to rely on short term measures. • Governments would like to spend money to HRD. • Poor understanding lead digression from the issues and waste of the resources. Pacific Forum CSIS NEEG Session 6 February 28, 2017, Singapore
Department of Nuclear Engineering Kyung Hee University. KOREA
Issues to be tackled further • Prevent cyclic problem : Age distribution → Equilibrium? – More focus should be given to DEMOGRAPHY rather than good “Education and Training”
• Reducing trend of nuclear engineers’ portion • Diversity of manpower : Multi-Generation, Gender, Race and Ethnicity • Flexibility of institutes : Free agents • Higher skills requirement due to high safety demand • University curricula improvements: International cooperation, regulation, security, industry code and standards, etc. • Lack of control tower (Digression and Goal displacement) Pacific Forum CSIS NEEG Session 6 February 28, 2017, Singapore
Department of Nuclear Engineering Kyung Hee University. KOREA
Closing • • • • •
Nature of nuclear manpower issue A crude model for manpower demand & supply Nuclear manpower issues BEFORE and AFTER Reviews and some insights are shared. Brief discussions are made on why it is still a concern.
< 2 Key elements > • Succession Plan for NE • Goal displacement for N HRD
Pacific Forum CSIS NEEG Session 6 February 28, 2017, Singapore
Department of Nuclear Engineering Kyung Hee University. KOREA
Bum-Jin CHUNG Kyung Hee Univ., KOREA [email protected] Pacific Forum CSIS NEEG Session 6 February 28, 2017, Singapore
Department of Nuclear Engineering Kyung Hee University. KOREA
•
•
•
•
Bum-Jin Chung is a Professor of Nuclear Engineering Department in Kyung Hee University, Korea since March 2013. He received his Ph.D. in 1994 from Seoul National University, Korea on the topic of AP-600 containment cooling capability assessment. He has worked for Korean Ministry of Science and Technology (1995-2002) and studied at the University of Manchester, U.K (1999-2001). He had been a Professor of Nuclear and Energy Engineering Department in Jeju National University, Korea (2002-2013) and he has leading the nuclear R&D division in the National Research Foundation of Korea (2012-2013). He has published a series of articles on the experimental researches of the condensation phenomena. His current research interests are the analogy experiment method using electrochemical systems, natural and mixed convection heat transfers on various geometries in application to nuclear systems such as the HTGR (High Temperature Gas Cooled Reactor) and SFR(Sodium-cooled Fast Reactor) safety systems. Also he has been expanding his realm of research on severe accident phenomena applying the analogy experiment methodology. Beside the technical interests, he has deep interest on the nuclear manpower demand and supply and education issues. He has published a series of paper regarding the issues. He has founded and led the NtUss (Nuclear technology Undergraduate student society) and participated in the various consultations for Korean government, IAEA, and OECD/NEA. He has been working actively as the members of the governmental committees: Nuclear Safety Expert Committee of MEST (Ministry of Education, Science and Technology), Policy Advisory Committee of MEST, Presidential Mission Evaluation Committee of MEST, Electricity Demand and Supply Planning Committee of MKE (Ministry of Knowledge and Economy), etc. He has been participating in international expert meetings organized by the IAEA and the OECD. He is the editorial board member of the KNS (Korea Nuclear Society), KAIF (Korea Atomic Industry Forum) and writing articles for the newspapers.
Pacific Forum CSIS NEEG Session 6 February 28, 2017, Singapore
Department of Nuclear Engineering Kyung Hee University. KOREA
Introduction • World-wide Concerns regarding Nuclear Manpower Issue – At the dawn of New Millennium – Manpower shortage, Ageing, Low enrollment, Declination of Education and Training Institutes, etc. – National and International Activities
• Nuclear Renaissance – Arise of the Beginner countries – Potential Massive Need for Nuclear Manpower – A new dimension of the issue
• Fukushima NPP Accident – Delay of the Nuclear Renaissance – Delay of the Nuclear HRD
☞ Endanger the Sustainability of the NE! Pacific Forum CSIS NEEG Session 6 February 28, 2017, Singapore
Department of Nuclear Engineering Kyung Hee University. KOREA
Nature of the Issue •
Cross-cutting –
•
Manpower shortage signal ☞ Already problem! –
•
Not In My Term
Large and lasting investment ☞ Public sector –
•
Time lag between HR demand and development
NIMT problem for CEOs –
•
affects all aspects of nuclear fields
Education and Training : Low yield
Worldwide problem – –
propagation of the issue to less developed countries International cooperation
Pacific Forum CSIS NEEG Session 6 February 28, 2017, Singapore
Department of Nuclear Engineering Kyung Hee University. KOREA
Origination of the Issue • • •
Nuclear industry has relatively short history (~Half century). Rapid growth and massive recruitment in the early stage of nuclear industry development. Quick maturity and rare new employments. – Long employment of the 1st generation of nuclear experts
•
Suppression of new employment – Consolidation, Privatization, Restructuring, etc.
• Needs for New NPPs and Experts Cyclic Problem in Manpower Demand and Supply • Massive manpower demand for a very short period • Exhaustion of manpower demand for long period Pacific Forum CSIS NEEG Session 6 February 28, 2017, Singapore
Department of Nuclear Engineering Kyung Hee University. KOREA
A Four-Season Model Period
Spring
Summer
Autumn
Winter
1940-1950
1960-1970
1980
1990-2010
Events Physical
Org.
exploration, Military application
Peaceful use, Massive construction of NPPs
NPT, Regulation Cancellation of NPP construction Safety researches
Manhattan project
Increase due to industrialization
Decrease or Declination of stagnation in number Educational Org. and size Research oriented
Engineers (All-logies)
Few new recruitment Less public support Less enrolments in Science & Engineering Fields
Man Scientists power (Physicists,
Mathematicians, etc.)
Pacific Forum CSIS NEEG Session 6 February 28, 2017, Singapore
Existing facilities, Lacking vision, Nuclear Renaissance(?)
Retirements of 1st gen. nuclear experts Recruits from abroad
Department of Nuclear Engineering Kyung Hee University. KOREA
Manpower Issues BEFORE Renaissance • World-wide Concerns on Sustainability – – – –
Ageing of the 1st generation nuclear experts Massive retirements within next several years Declination of nuclear education due to lack of students Shortage of nuclear manpower supply
• Measures: – – – – –
Draw more young generations Extend the retirement age or Reemployment of the retired Improve manpower age distribution Develop and improve the supply side (E&T) More supports for supply side
Pacific Forum CSIS NEEG Session 6 February 28, 2017, Singapore
Department of Nuclear Engineering Kyung Hee University. KOREA
Manpower Issues AFTER Renaissance 1 • Needs for Nuclear Power – – – –
Climate Change → Low Carbon Energy Source Energy Demand Increase (2.5 times in 2050) Electric Energy Demand Increase Energy Security
• NPP Increase (WNA) – Constructions for 430 New NPPs by 2030 – Maintenance Market for 88 Aged NPPs
• Expanded Use of Nuclear Power – Small & Medium Size NPP for Distributed Source – Nuclear Hydrogen Generation
☞ Need for Nuclear Human Resources Development Pacific Forum CSIS NEEG Session 6 February 28, 2017, Singapore
Department of Nuclear Engineering Kyung Hee University. KOREA
Manpower Issues AFTER Renaissance 2 • Problems: – Massive need for manpower to meet the Renaissance – Proper portion of Nuclear Engineers – Difference in development stage among countries (Beginner countries & Mature countries) – More emphasis on nuclear safety
• Measures: – Expansion of Education and Training Institutes – Short term measures to run nuclear business without nuclear engineers – Long term strategy to bring up nuclear engineers – International Cooperation Pacific Forum CSIS NEEG Session 6 February 28, 2017, Singapore
Department of Nuclear Engineering Kyung Hee University. KOREA
Activities undertaken • OECD/NEA : Expert group studies – Nuclear Education & Training: Cause for Concern? (2000) – Nuclear Competence Building (2004) – Nuclear E & T: From Concern to Capability (2011)
• IAEA – NKM Conference and Activities (since 2002) – WNU (since 2003), ANENT
• U.S.A. and U.K. – National Academy (1990) and NEDHO report (1998) – DTI, Nuclear and Radiological Skills Study (2002)
• Still Concerns after a DECADE ! Pacific Forum CSIS NEEG Session 6 February 28, 2017, Singapore
Department of Nuclear Engineering Kyung Hee University. KOREA
Reviews • Simple list up of Recommendations (OECD/NEA 2000) • Wrong Priorities of programs (IAEA NKMC 2002) – Top priority activities vs. Additional activities • Digressions from the issue (Wider mark → Lost target) – Manpower shortage → Knowledge preservation → KM – Knowledge lost by massive retirement → All nuclear knowledge – Tacit knowledge → explicit knowledge
• Weak voice from younger generations • Goal Displacement – Original goals → Measures – (Measures = New goals) → New programs ? – Divert organizational resources Pacific Forum CSIS NEEG Session 6 February 28, 2017, Singapore
Department of Nuclear Engineering Kyung Hee University. KOREA
Some Insights from the Past • We tend to spend money for nuclear HRD programs rather than for the survey of nuclear manpower statistics. • We don’t review the outcome of the HRD program. • We tend to listen to and spend less for young generation and more for the current or old generation. • We tend to see the problem in general rather than in specific when formulating programs. • Industries tend to rely on short term measures. • Governments would like to spend money to HRD. • Poor understanding lead digression from the issues and waste of the resources. Pacific Forum CSIS NEEG Session 6 February 28, 2017, Singapore
Department of Nuclear Engineering Kyung Hee University. KOREA
Issues to be tackled further • Prevent cyclic problem : Age distribution → Equilibrium? – More focus should be given to DEMOGRAPHY rather than good “Education and Training”
• Reducing trend of nuclear engineers’ portion • Diversity of manpower : Multi-Generation, Gender, Race and Ethnicity • Flexibility of institutes : Free agents • Higher skills requirement due to high safety demand • University curricula improvements: International cooperation, regulation, security, industry code and standards, etc. • Lack of control tower (Digression and Goal displacement) Pacific Forum CSIS NEEG Session 6 February 28, 2017, Singapore
Department of Nuclear Engineering Kyung Hee University. KOREA
Closing • • • • •
Nature of nuclear manpower issue A crude model for manpower demand & supply Nuclear manpower issues BEFORE and AFTER Reviews and some insights are shared. Brief discussions are made on why it is still a concern.
< 2 Key elements > • Succession Plan for NE • Goal displacement for N HRD
Pacific Forum CSIS NEEG Session 6 February 28, 2017, Singapore
Department of Nuclear Engineering Kyung Hee University. KOREA
