Sherwood Chemicals Underperform (17E TP Bt11.70)
Earnings Review
Close Bt11.50
mai ‐ Industrial
Beat forecast/Below forecast/In line
March 1, 2017
2016 NP growth of 27%; 12% CAGR growth expected for two years Fully‐valued in the short term but still attractive in the long term We still like SWC for its superior profitability, a net cash position and the expected dividend yield of 5‐6% p.a. during 2017‐18E. The share price is fully valued vs. our target price of Bt11.70/share (10.5x PER). Therefore, in the short term we suggest taking profit and our “Underperform” rating is thus maintained.
Results date: February 28, 2017 Price Performance (%)
2016 net profit growth hit a new high at 27%, 5% better than expected SWC reported a net profit of 154mn in 2016 (which was 5% better than expected due to a better‐than‐expected gross profit margin of 38.6% vs. our estimate of 37.8%). The sales amounted to Bt1.24bn, up 8%, from sales of new products and expansion to overseas markets. The gross profit margin widened to 38.6% vs. 36.3% in 2015 because raw material prices declined. SG&A to sales increased to 23.1% vs. 22.9% in 2015 because selling expenses increased on the back of promotional activities to boost domestic and overseas markets.
Source: SET Smart
FY17
FY18
Consensus EPS (Bt)
1.110
1.280
KT ZMICO vs. consensus Share data
0.9%
0.0%
Reuters / Bloomberg
SWC.BK/SWC TB
Paid‐up Shares (m)
150.00
Par (Bt)
1.00
Market cap (Bt bn / US$ m)
2.00/49.00
Foreign limit / actual (%)
49.00/0.56
52 week High / Low (Bt)
12.70/9.05
Avg. daily T/O (shares 000) NVDR (%)
259.00 0.42
Estimated free float (%)
37.69
Beta
0.74
URL
www.sherwood.co.th
CGR
Anti‐corruption
n.a.
Phornsri Laysanitsaerekul Analyst , no 17621
4Q16 net profit jumped by 142%YoY and dropped 12%QoQ SWC reported 4Q16 net profit of Bt29mn (+142%YoY, ‐12%QoQ). The firm reported sales of Bt316mn (+15%YoY, +10%QoQ) driven by sales of new products. The gross profit margin was 37.6% vs. 38.7% in 4Q15 and 37.8% in 3Q16 because of promotions and freebies given away to boost sales. Meanwhile, SG&A to sales increased to 26% from 32.8% in 4Q15 and 23.8% in 3Q16 because selling expenses increased on the back of promotional activities. Net cash position with an attractive dividend yield The firm’s financial position is strong; as of the end of 2016, it had net cash of Bt239mn or Bt1.59/share. We expect the firm to pay a dividend of Bt0.25/share for 2H16, implying a dividend yield of 4.3% p.a. Financial and Valuation FY Ended 31 Dec Revenues (Btmn) Net profit (Btmn) EPS (Bt) Norm. EPS (Bt) Norm. EPS growth (%) Dividend (Bt) BV (Bt)
2014 1,149 88 0.59 0.59 ‐25% 0.40 3.80
2015 1,142 122 0.81 0.81 39% 0.45 4.19
2016 1,235 154 1.03 1.03 27% 0.50 4.74
2017E 1,371 167 1.12 1.12 8% 0.55 5.33
2018E 1,509 192 1.28 1.28 15% 0.63 6.02
FY Ended 31 Dec PER (x) EV/EBITDA (x) PBV (x) Dividend yield (%) ROE (%) Net gearing (%)
2014 19.64 9.20 3.03 3.48% 15.7% cash
2015 14.13 6.38 2.74 3.91% 20.4% cash
2016 11.17 4.88 2.42 4.39% 23.0% cash
2017E 10.30 4.23 2.16 4.81% 22.2% cash
2018E 8.97 3.39 1.91 5.52% 22.6% cash
[email protected] 66 (0) 2624‐6258 REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 1 of 3
Figure 1: 4Q16 earnings review (Bt m) 4Q15 Sales 275 COGS (168) Gross profit 106 SG&A expense (90) Others income (0) EBIT 16 Interest expense ‐ EBT 16 Tax expense (4) Equity income ‐ MI 0 Norm. profit 12 Extra. Items ‐ Net profit 12
EPS (Bt) Gross margin SG&A /Sales EBIT margin Norm. profit margin Net profit margin
3Q16 287 (179) 108 (68) 2 42 ‐ 42 (9) ‐ (0) 33 ‐ 33
4Q16 316 (197) 119 (82) (1) 36 ‐ 36 (6) ‐ 1 29 ‐ 29
0.08 0.22 0.19 38.7% 32.8% 5.8% 4.4% 4.4%
Source: SET and KTZMICO Research
37.8% 23.8% 14.7% 11.5% 11.5%
37.6% 26.0% 11.3% 9.2% 9.2%
% YoY %QoQ 14.9% 10.0% 17.0% 10.3% 11.5% 9.5% ‐8.7% 20.6% 130.1% ‐149.9% 122.5% ‐15.1% nm nm 122.5% ‐15.1% 61.4% ‐36.7% nm nm nm nm 142.4% ‐12.2% nm nm 142.4% ‐12.2% 142.4%
2015 1,142 (727) 415 (262) 2 155 ‐ 155 (32) ‐ 1 122 ‐ 122
2016 % YoY 1,235 8.2% (759) 4.4% 476 14.8% (285) 8.8% 3 47.2% 195 25.5% ‐ nm 195 25.5% (39) 21.2% ‐ nm 2 nm 154 26.5% ‐ nm 154 26.5%
‐12.2% 0.81 1.03 36.3% 22.9% 13.6% 10.7% 10.7%
38.6% 23.1% 15.8% 12.5% 12.5%
26.5%
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 2 of 3
Note: KT ZMICO has two major shareholders, Krungthai Bank PLC (KTB) and Seamico Securities PLC (ZMICO). Therefore, prior to making investments in the securities of KTB and ZMICO, investors should consider the risk factors carefully. An executive of KT ZMICO Securities is also a board member of BCP, BTC, CI, CPI, KBS, MAJOR, MK, PACE, PSL, SVH, VNG, ZMICO, SAWAD, TFG. A management member of KT ZMICO Securities is also a board member of BTC and NFC. KT ZMICO is a financial advisor for U, LOXLEY, ZMICO, MAKRO, CPALL, SAFARI, M‐CHAI, POMPUI, TFD.
Corporate Governance Report (CGR) Source: Sec, Thai Institute of Directors Association (IOD) Excellent (scores: 90 ‐ 100) Very Good (scores: 80 – 89) Good (scores: 70 – 79)
Satisfactory (scores: 60 – 69) Pass (scores: 50 – 59) No Logo N/A (scores: below 50)
Anti‐corruption Progress Indicator Source: Sec, Thailand's Private Sector Collective Action Coalition Against Corruption programme (Thai CAC)
Level 1 (Committed) : Organization’s statement or board's resolution to work against corruption and to be in compliance with all relevant laws. Level 2 (Declared) : Public declaration statement to participate in Thailand's private sector Collective Action Coalition Against Corruption (CAC) or equivalent initiatives Level 3 (Established) : Public out preventive measures, risk assessment, communication and training for all employees, including consistent monitoring and review processes Level 4 (Certified) : Audit engagement by audit committee or auditors approved by the office of SEC, and receiving certification or assurance by independent external assurance providers (CAC etc.) Level 5 (Extended) : Extension of the anti‐corruption policy to business partners in the supply chain, and disclosure of any current investigations, prosecutions or closed cases Insufficient or not clearly defined policy Data not available / no policy
DISCLAIMER This document is produced using open sources believed to be reliable. However, their accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. The statements and opinions herein were formed after due and careful consideration for use as information for the purposes of investment. The opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. This document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. The use of any information contained in this document shall be at the sole discretion and risk of the user.
KT ZMICO RESEARCH – RECOMMENDATION DEFINITIONS STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS
SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS
BUY: Expecting positive total returns of 15% or more OVERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's over the next 12 months coverage universe, is expected to outperform the relevant OUTPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% primary market index by at least 10% over the next 12 months. to +15%; returns expected to exceed market returns NEUTRAL: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage over a six‐month period due to specific catalysts universe, is expected to perform in line with the relevant UNDERPERFORM: Expecting total returns between primary market index over the next 12 months. ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to be below market UNDERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's returns over a six‐month period due to specific coverage universe, is expected to underperform the relevant catalysts primary market index by 10% over the next 12 months. SELL: Expecting negative total returns of 10% or more over the next 12 months
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 3 of 3
KT ZMICO Securities Company Limited Head Office
WWW.KTZMICO.COM
8th, 15th‐17th,19th, 21st Floor, Liberty Square Bldg., 287 Silom Road, Bangrak, Bangkok, Thailand 10500 Telephone: (66‐2) 695‐5000 Fax: (66‐2) 695‐5173 KT ZMICO Connect 662 695 5555
Central World Branch
Amarin Branch
22nd Floor, Amarin Building, 496‐502 Ploenchit Road, Lumpini, Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330 Telephone: (66‐2) 018‐6200 Fax: (66‐2) 018‐6298, (66‐2) 018‐6299
8th Floor, Ton Son Tower, 900 Ploenchit Road, Lumpini, Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330 Telephone: (66‐2) 626‐6000 Fax: (66‐2) 626‐6111
Phaholyothin Branch
Sindhorn Branch
Viphavadee Branch
2nd Floor, Sindhorn Tower 1, 130‐132 Wireless Road, Lumpini, Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330 Telephone: (66‐2) 627‐3550 Fax: (66‐2) 627‐3582, 627‐3600
G Floor, Lao Peng Nguan 1 Bldg., 333 Soi Cheypuand, Viphavadee‐Rangsit Road, Ladyao, Jatujak, Bangkok 10900 Telephone: (66‐2) 013‐8600 Fax: (66‐2) 618‐8569
BangKhae Branch
Chiang Mai Branch
Pak Chong Branch
999/9 The Offices at Central World, 16th Fl., Rama 1 Rd, Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330 Telephone: (66‐2) 264‐5888 Fax: (66‐2) 264 5899
1291/1, Shinnawatra Tower II, 3rd Floor, Phaholyothin Road, Phayathai, Bangkok 10400 Telephone: (66‐2) 686‐1500 Fax: (66‐2) 686‐1666
Ploenchit Branch
518 The Mall Group Building Bangkhae Branch, 6th Floor, Petchkasem Road, North Bangkhae, Bangkhae, Bangkok 10160 Telephone: (66‐2) 454‐9979 Fax: (66‐2) 454‐9970
422/49 Changklan Road, Changklan Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang, Chiang Mai 50100 Telephone: (053) 270‐072 Fax: (053) 272‐618
173 175, Mittapap Road, Nong Sarai, Pak Chong, Nakhon Ratchasima 30130 Telephone: (044) 279‐511 Fax: (044) 279‐574
Korat Branch
Khon Kaen Branch
Chonburi Branch
624/9 Changphuek Road, T.Naimaung, A.Maung, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000 Telephone: (044) 247222 Fax: (044) 247171
5th Floor, Charoen Thani Princess Hotel, 260 Srichan Road, T. Naimuang, A. Muang, Khon Kaen 40000 Telephone: (043) 389‐171‐193 Fax: (043) 389‐209
4th Floor, Forum Plaza Bldg., 870/52 Sukhumvit Road, T. Bangplasoy, A. Muang, Cholburi 20000 Telephone: (038) 287‐635 Fax: (038) 287‐637
Pattaya Branch
Chachoengsao Branch
Hat Yai Branch
Easy Point 2, 392/65 Moo.9, T.Nong Prue, A. Bang Lamung, Chonburi 20260 Telephone: (038) 420‐965 Fax: (038) 420‐968
108/34‐36 Mahajakkrapad Road, T.Namuang, A.Muang, Chachoengsao 24000 Telephone: (038) 813‐088 Fax: (038) 813‐099
200/301, 200/303 JULDIS HATYAI PLAZA Floor 3 , Niphat‐Uthit 3 Rd, Hatyai Songkhla 90110 Telephone: (074) 355530‐3 Fax: (074) 355534
Phuket Branch
22/61‐63, Luang Por Wat Chalong Road, Talat Yai, Mueang Phuket, Phuket 83000 Telephone: (076) 222‐811, (076) 222‐683 Fax: (076) 222‐861
Phitsanulok Branch
227/171 Borom Trilokkanat Road, Muang, Phitsanulok 65000 Telephone: 055‐219‐255 to 8 Fax: 055‐219‐259
Nakhon Pathom
Cyber Branch Ayutthaya
Cyber Branch @ North Nana
Cyber Branch Chiangrai
KrungThai Bank, Rojana Branch 253 Moo 5, Rojana Road, Phai Ling, Phra Nakhon Si Ayutthaya, Phra Nakhonsi Ayutthaya, 13000 Telephone: 035‐242‐477 Fax: 035‐242‐476
Krung Thai Bank PCL, 2 Floor, North Nana Branch 35 Sukhumvit Rd., Klong Toey Nua Subdistrict , Wattana District , Bangkok 10110 Telephone: 083‐490‐2871
River Hotel (Building 3rd),1156 Petchakasem Road, Sanamchan Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang , Nakhon Pathom Province 73000 Telephone: (034) 271300 Fax: (034) 271300 #100
KrungThai Bank, Hayaek Phokhun Mengrai Branch 116/19 Moo 19, Highway 110 Road, Rop Wiang, Mueang Chiang Rai, Chiang Rai, 57000 Telephone: 053‐715‐067 Fax: 053‐715‐068