Sherwood Chemicals Underperform (17E TP Bt11.70)
Company Update
Close Bt13.70
mai ‐ Industrial
Earnings upgrade/Earnings downgrade/Overview unchanged
July 18, 2017
Tender offer for all of SWC’s securities at Bt13.25 apiece/weak 2Q17E earnings Price Performance (%)
Source: SET Smart
FY17
FY18
Consensus EPS (Bt)
1.120
1.330
KT ZMICO vs. consensus Share data
0.0%
0.0%
Reuters / Bloomberg
SWC.BK/SWC TB
Paid‐up Shares (m)
150.00
Par (Bt)
1.00
Market cap (Bt bn / US$ m)
2.00/61.00
Foreign limit / actual (%)
49.00/0.87
52 week High / Low (Bt)
15.10/9.90
Avg. daily T/O (shares 000) NVDR (%)
312.00 0.34
Estimated free float (%)
38.32
Beta
0.80
URL
www.sherwood.co.th
CGR
Level 4 (Certified)
Anti‐corruption
Phornsri Laysanitsaerekul Analyst , no 17621
[email protected] 66 (0) 2624‐6258
Fully valued We like SWC for its net cash position and an estimated dividend yield of 4‐5% p.a. during 2017‐18. We expect its 2Q17E earnings to have weakened QoQ and YoY. Also, the share price has been fully valued versus our 2017/18 target prices of Bt11.70/Bt14 (10.5x PER), higher than the tender offer price. Hence, we suggest taking profit in the short term and leave our “Underperform” rating unchanged. Tender offer for all of SWC’s securities at Bt13.25 apiece SWC received the Announcement of the Intention to Make a Tender Offer from TOA Venture Holding Co. Ltd., a major shareholder holding 36% of the total shares. TOA Venture Holding is extending the tender offer to buy the remaining 64% of the shares of SWC or 96mn shares at Bt13.25/share for a total transaction value of Bt1.27bn. However, the tender offer for all of SWC’s securities is subject to the condition that the number of shares tendered by the offerees must not be less than 28.93% of the paid‐up ordinary shares of SWC or 43.39mn shares (the offerees made an agreement with Mr. Patana Sukontarug, as a representative of the offerors). Upon the share transfer to the offerors, all four executives will enter into an agreement on non‐competition with SWC for five years; nevertheless, this can be annulled upon agreement by both parties. 2Q17E net profit projected to have declined by 2%YoY and 19%QoQ We expect SWC to post 2Q17E net profit of Bt37mn, down 2%YoY and 19%QoQ. The earnings may have weakened despite the peak sales season because of sluggish purchasing power and intense competition. We view that the firm will have to continue launching promotional campaigns to maintain its sales. Also, the raw material costs of chemical substances remained high. We therefore expect 2Q17E sales of Bt328mn (+4%YoY, flat QoQ). Its gross profit margin is estimated at 35% vs. 39.9% in 2Q16 and 35.3% in 1Q17. The SG&A to sales ratio is projected at 20% in 2Q17E, down from 25% in 2Q16 but up from 17% in 1Q17. 2017E earnings forecast maintained If the 2Q17E earnings come out as projected, the firm’s 1H17E earnings will account for 53% of our full‐year forecast of Bt168mn. We leave our current projection unchanged. Financial and Valuation FY Ended 31 Dec Revenues (Btmn) Net profit (Btmn) EPS (Bt) Norm. EPS (Bt) Norm. EPS growth (%) Dividend (Bt) BV (Bt) FY Ended 31 Dec PER (x) EV/EBITDA (x) PBV (x) Dividend yield (%) ROE (%) Net gearing (%)
2014 1,149 88 0.59 0.59 ‐25% 0.40 3.80 2014 23.40 9.20 3.61 2.92% 15.7% cash
2015 1,142 122 0.81 0.81 39% 0.45 4.19 2015 16.83 6.38 3.27 3.28% 20.4% cash
2016 1,235 154 1.03 1.03 27% 0.45 4.74 2016 13.31 4.88 2.89 3.28% 23.0% cash
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 1 of 3
2017E 1,371 168 1.12 1.12 9% 0.55 5.36 2017E 12.23 4.20 2.55 4.05% 22.2% cash
2018E 1,508 199 1.33 1.33 19% 0.66 6.09 2018E 10.31 3.25 2.25 4.80% 23.2% cash
Figure 1 : 2Q17 earnings preview (Bt m) Sales COGS Gross profit SG&A expense Others income EBIT Interest expense EBT Tax expense Equity income MI Norm. profit Extra. Items Net profit
2Q16 317 (194) 123 (78) 0 46 ‐ 46 (9) ‐ (1) 38 ‐ 38
EPS (Bt)
0.25 0.30 0.25
Gross margin SG&A /Sales EBIT margin Norm. profit margin Net profit margin
38.9% 24.5% 14.5% 11.8% 11.8%
1Q17 328 (212) 116 (56) 1 60 ‐ 60 (13) ‐ 2 45 ‐ 45
35.3% 17.2% 18.3% 13.8% 13.8%
Source: SWC and KTZ Research
2Q17E % YoY 328 3.6% (213) 10.1% 115 ‐6.7% (67) ‐13.7% 1 88.2% 48 5.6% ‐ nm 48 5.6% (10) 9.2% ‐ nm 2 nm 37 ‐1.6% ‐ nm 37 ‐1.6%
35.0% 20.4% 14.8% 11.2% 11.2%
%QoQ 0.0% 0.4% ‐0.8% 18.9% 0.0% ‐19.3% nm ‐19.3% ‐24.3% nm nm ‐18.7% nm ‐18.7%
1H16 633 (383) 249 (134) 2 117 ‐ 117 (24) ‐ 1 92 ‐ 92
1H17E 657 (426) 231 (123) 1 109 ‐ 109 (22) ‐ 4 82 ‐ 82
‐1.6% ‐18.7% 0.62 0.55 39.4% 21.2% 18.5% 14.6% 14.6%
35.1% 18.8% 16.5% 12.5% 12.5%
% YoY 3.8% 11.1% ‐7.3% ‐8.2% ‐54.8% ‐7.2% nm ‐7.2% ‐4.6% nm nm ‐10.8% nm ‐10.8%
2016 1,235 (759) 476 (285) 3 195 ‐ 195 (39) ‐ 2 154 ‐ 154
2017E % YoY YTD (% of 2017E) 1,371 11.0% 53.2% (861) 13.5% 56.1% 509 7.0% 48.5% (302) 5.9% 43.3% 3 3.0% 32.8% 211 8.5% 55.7% ‐ nm nm 211 8.5% 55.7% (42) 9.0% 58.0% ‐ nm nm 1 ‐34.7% nm 168 8.8% 53.3% ‐ nm nm 168 8.8% 53.3%
‐10.8% 1.03 1.12 38.6% 23.1% 15.8% 12.5% 12.5%
37.2% 22.0% 15.4% 12.3% 12.3%
8.8%
53.3%
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 2 of 3
Note: KT ZMICO has two major shareholders, Krungthai Bank PLC (KTB) and Seamico Securities PLC (ZMICO). Therefore, prior to making investments in the securities of KTB and ZMICO, investors should consider the risk factors carefully. An executive of KT ZMICO Securities is also a board member of BCP, BTC, CI, CPI, KBS, MAJOR, MK, PACE, PSL, SVH, VNG, ZMICO, SAWAD, TFG. A management member of KT ZMICO Securities is also a board member of BTC and NFC. KT ZMICO is a financial advisor for U, LOXLEY, ZMICO, MAKRO, CPALL, SAFARI, M‐CHAI, POMPUI, TTL, NMG, SAWAD, TFD. KT ZMICO is a co‐underwriter of the IPO of BGRIM.
Corporate Governance Report (CGR) Source: Sec, Thai Institute of Directors Association (IOD) Excellent (scores: 90 ‐ 100) Very Good (scores: 80 – 89) Good (scores: 70 – 79)
Satisfactory (scores: 60 – 69) Pass (scores: 50 – 59) No Logo N/A (scores: below 50)
Anti‐corruption Progress Indicator Source: Sec, Thailand's Private Sector Collective Action Coalition Against Corruption programme (Thai CAC)
Level 1 (Committed) : Organization’s statement or board's resolution to work against corruption and to be in compliance with all relevant laws. Level 2 (Declared) : Public declaration statement to participate in Thailand's private sector Collective Action Coalition Against Corruption (CAC) or equivalent initiatives Level 3 (Established) : Public out preventive measures, risk assessment, communication and training for all employees, including consistent monitoring and review processes Level 4 (Certified) : Audit engagement by audit committee or auditors approved by the office of SEC, and receiving certification or assurance by independent external assurance providers (CAC etc.) Level 5 (Extended) : Extension of the anti‐corruption policy to business partners in the supply chain, and disclosure of any current investigations, prosecutions or closed cases Insufficient or not clearly defined policy Data not available / no policy
DISCLAIMER This document is produced using open sources believed to be reliable. However, their accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. The statements and opinions herein were formed after due and careful consideration for use as information for the purposes of investment. The opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. This document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. The use of any information contained in this document shall be at the sole discretion and risk of the user.
KT ZMICO RESEARCH – RECOMMENDATION DEFINITIONS STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS
SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS
BUY: Expecting positive total returns of 15% or more OVERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's over the next 12 months coverage universe, is expected to outperform the relevant OUTPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% primary market index by at least 10% over the next 12 months. to +15%; returns expected to exceed market returns NEUTRAL: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage over a six‐month period due to specific catalysts universe, is expected to perform in line with the relevant UNDERPERFORM: Expecting total returns between primary market index over the next 12 months. ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to be below market returns over a six‐month period due to specific UNDERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to underperform the relevant catalysts SELL: Expecting negative total returns of 10% or more primary market index by 10% over the next 12 months. over the next 12 months
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 3 of 3
KT ZMICO Securities Company Limited Head Office
WWW.KTZMICO.COM
8th, 15th‐17th,19th, 21st Floor, Liberty Square Bldg., 287 Silom Road, Bangrak, Bangkok, Thailand 10500 Telephone: (66‐2) 695‐5000 Fax: (66‐2) 695‐5173 KT ZMICO Connect 662 695 5555
Central World Branch
Amarin Branch
22nd Floor, Amarin Building, 496‐502 Ploenchit Road, Lumpini, Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330 Telephone: (66‐2) 018‐6200 Fax: (66‐2) 018‐6298, (66‐2) 018‐6299
8th Floor, Ton Son Tower, 900 Ploenchit Road, Lumpini, Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330 Telephone: (66‐2) 626‐6000 Fax: (66‐2) 626‐6111
Phaholyothin Branch
Sindhorn Branch
Viphavadee Branch
2nd Floor, Sindhorn Tower 1, 130‐132 Wireless Road, Lumpini, Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330 Telephone: (66‐2) 627‐3550 Fax: (66‐2) 627‐3582, 627‐3600
G Floor, Lao Peng Nguan 1 Bldg., 333 Soi Cheypuand, Viphavadee‐Rangsit Road, Ladyao, Jatujak, Bangkok 10900 Telephone: (66‐2) 013‐8600 Fax: (66‐2) 618‐8569
BangKhae Branch
Chiang Mai Branch
Pak Chong Branch
999/9 The Offices at Central World, 16th Fl., Rama 1 Rd, Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330 Telephone: (66‐2) 264‐5888 Fax: (66‐2) 264 5899
1291/1, Shinnawatra Tower II, 3rd Floor, Phaholyothin Road, Phayathai, Bangkok 10400 Telephone: (66‐2) 686‐1500 Fax: (66‐2) 686‐1666
Ploenchit Branch
518 The Mall Group Building Bangkhae Branch, 6th Floor, Petchkasem Road, North Bangkhae, Bangkhae, Bangkok 10160 Telephone: (66‐2) 454‐9979 Fax: (66‐2) 454‐9970
422/49 Changklan Road, Changklan Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang, Chiang Mai 50100 Telephone: (053) 270‐072 Fax: (053) 272‐618
173 175, Mittapap Road, Nong Sarai, Pak Chong, Nakhon Ratchasima 30130 Telephone: (044) 279‐511 Fax: (044) 279‐574
Korat Branch
Khon Kaen Branch
Chonburi Branch
624/9 Changphuek Road, T.Naimaung, A.Maung, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000 Telephone: (044) 247222 Fax: (044) 247171
5th Floor, Charoen Thani Princess Hotel, 260 Srichan Road, T. Naimuang, A. Muang, Khon Kaen 40000 Telephone: (043) 389‐171‐193 Fax: (043) 389‐209
4th Floor, Forum Plaza Bldg., 870/52 Sukhumvit Road, T. Bangplasoy, A. Muang, Cholburi 20000 Telephone: (038) 287‐635 Fax: (038) 287‐637
Pattaya Branch
Chachoengsao Branch
Hat Yai Branch
Easy Point 2, 392/65 Moo.9, T.Nong Prue, A. Bang Lamung, Chonburi 20260 Telephone: (038) 420‐965 Fax: (038) 420‐968
108/34‐36 Mahajakkrapad Road, T.Namuang, A.Muang, Chachoengsao 24000 Telephone: (038) 813‐088 Fax: (038) 813‐099
200/301, 200/303 JULDIS HATYAI PLAZA Floor 3 , Niphat‐Uthit 3 Rd, Hatyai Songkhla 90110 Telephone: (074) 355530‐3 Fax: (074) 355534
Phuket Branch
22/61‐63, Luang Por Wat Chalong Road, Talat Yai, Mueang Phuket, Phuket 83000 Telephone: (076) 222‐811, (076) 222‐683 Fax: (076) 222‐861
Phitsanulok Branch
227/171 Borom Trilokkanat Road, Muang, Phitsanulok 65000 Telephone: 055‐219‐255 to 8 Fax: 055‐219‐259
Nakhon Pathom
Cyber Branch Ayutthaya
Cyber Branch @ North Nana
Cyber Branch Chiangrai
KrungThai Bank, Rojana Branch 253 Moo 5, Rojana Road, Phai Ling, Phra Nakhon Si Ayutthaya, Phra Nakhonsi Ayutthaya, 13000 Telephone: 035‐242‐477 Fax: 035‐242‐476
Krung Thai Bank PCL, 2 Floor, North Nana Branch 35 Sukhumvit Rd., Klong Toey Nua Subdistrict , Wattana District , Bangkok 10110 Telephone: 083‐490‐2871
River Hotel (Building 3rd),1156 Petchakasem Road, Sanamchan Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang , Nakhon Pathom Province 73000 Telephone: (034) 271300 Fax: (034) 271300 #100
KrungThai Bank, Hayaek Phokhun Mengrai Branch 116/19 Moo 19, Highway 110 Road, Rop Wiang, Mueang Chiang Rai, Chiang Rai, 57000 Telephone: 053‐715‐067 Fax: 053‐715‐068