should genetically modified ...
Human activity and global impact: will/should genetically modified crops help ensure survival? John Bryant
September 4th, 2014
MY OWN BACKGROUND • Many years of research on plant genes, gene expression and DNA replication • Several key papers on mechanisms of plant GM (e.g. in Nucleic Acids Res & Cell Mol Biol) • GM techniques used in research • Several ‘new’ plant gene sequences entered into public data bases • Frequent ‘commentator’ on GM and related issues
A PERFECT STORM • We need to feed more people, using less land, less water, less fertiliser and fewer (or fewer applications of) agri-chemicals. From A Perfect Storm Sir John Beddington, 2009
POPULATION • Ca 7,200,000,000 at 10.50am (BST) 20/08/2014 • 7,000,000,000 (‘7 billion’) mark was passed in late 2011/early 2012 (depending on source of data) • Population growth slowing but population of 9 billion predicted by 2050
Asia and sub-Saharan Africa make up nearly 75% of the total But there are 18 million in developed,industrialised countries
Ray DK, Mueller ND, West PC, Foley JA (2013) Yield Trends Are Insufficient to Double Global Crop Production by 2050. PLoS ONE 8(6): e66428. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0066428
WATER • 69% of available fresh water is used in agriculture • 1 in 10 do not have access to safe drinking water • In in 3 do have access to adequate sanitation
CLIMATE • Now thought impossible to keep average temperature increase below 2°C • Plant responses to increased CO2 and increased temperature have been difficult to predict • Need to prepare for more extremes, including more frequent droughts
AND TO MAKE MATTERS WORSE • There are social, economic and political factors which include • Diet – especially consumption of large quantities of meat • Social inequality • Corruption • War
Picture by Nick Smirnoff
FACED WITH ALL THIS … • Plant breeders need every possible weapon in their armoury • ‘Conventional’ breeding • Mutagenesis • Genetic modification • In order to • Increase nutritional quality of crops • Make crops more resistant to pests and diseases • Increase crop robustness in the face of environmental stresses
SOME BRIEF THOUGHTS ON GM • Plant GM warmly welcomed by nearly all the plant science community in 1983 • No a priori reason why it should be dangerous – and it isn’t! • First commercial growth of GM plants in 1996. • Now grown in 28 countries; land area devoted to crops bred by GM methods is 170 million hectares • Several different crops, incl soybean, cotton, maize, oli-seed rape
• Not one instance of any harm suffered by any consumer of GM crops/crop products • But have been opposed every step of the way • Golden Rice is a clear example of this
Gates Foundation: photosynthesis improvement in rice (‘one-cell C4’)
©John Bryant
Recent Developments
Salt-tolerant pasta wheat bred in Australia – conventional breeding but could have been done more easily by GM Trait introgressed from wild einkorn wheat but the gene itself has been identified
Drought-tolerant soybeans bred by GM techniques in Argentina, using a gene from sunflower
‘Moderately’ drought-tolerant maize licensed for commercialisation in USA
Thinking outside the box
Can algae ‘save the planet’?
Climate change genomics
SO … WILL GM CROPS ‘HELP TO ENSURE OUR SURVIVAL’? • GM crops are not are panacea for all problems in agriculture and crop science – far from it • GM techniques are part of an array of techniques available to the plant breeder • And it’s a tough call Ray DK, Mueller ND, West PC, Foley JA (2013) Yield Trends Are Insufficient to Double Global Crop Production by 2050. PLoS ONE 8(6): e66428. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0066428
• In addition to plant breeding we need more efficient crop husbandry and effective land use • Not forgetting non-science, non-agriculture issues
SO … WILL GM CROPS ‘HELP TO ENSURE OUR SURVIVAL’? • It’s your call!
September 4th, 2014
MY OWN BACKGROUND • Many years of research on plant genes, gene expression and DNA replication • Several key papers on mechanisms of plant GM (e.g. in Nucleic Acids Res & Cell Mol Biol) • GM techniques used in research • Several ‘new’ plant gene sequences entered into public data bases • Frequent ‘commentator’ on GM and related issues
A PERFECT STORM • We need to feed more people, using less land, less water, less fertiliser and fewer (or fewer applications of) agri-chemicals. From A Perfect Storm Sir John Beddington, 2009
POPULATION • Ca 7,200,000,000 at 10.50am (BST) 20/08/2014 • 7,000,000,000 (‘7 billion’) mark was passed in late 2011/early 2012 (depending on source of data) • Population growth slowing but population of 9 billion predicted by 2050
Asia and sub-Saharan Africa make up nearly 75% of the total But there are 18 million in developed,industrialised countries
Ray DK, Mueller ND, West PC, Foley JA (2013) Yield Trends Are Insufficient to Double Global Crop Production by 2050. PLoS ONE 8(6): e66428. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0066428
WATER • 69% of available fresh water is used in agriculture • 1 in 10 do not have access to safe drinking water • In in 3 do have access to adequate sanitation
CLIMATE • Now thought impossible to keep average temperature increase below 2°C • Plant responses to increased CO2 and increased temperature have been difficult to predict • Need to prepare for more extremes, including more frequent droughts
AND TO MAKE MATTERS WORSE • There are social, economic and political factors which include • Diet – especially consumption of large quantities of meat • Social inequality • Corruption • War
Picture by Nick Smirnoff
FACED WITH ALL THIS … • Plant breeders need every possible weapon in their armoury • ‘Conventional’ breeding • Mutagenesis • Genetic modification • In order to • Increase nutritional quality of crops • Make crops more resistant to pests and diseases • Increase crop robustness in the face of environmental stresses
SOME BRIEF THOUGHTS ON GM • Plant GM warmly welcomed by nearly all the plant science community in 1983 • No a priori reason why it should be dangerous – and it isn’t! • First commercial growth of GM plants in 1996. • Now grown in 28 countries; land area devoted to crops bred by GM methods is 170 million hectares • Several different crops, incl soybean, cotton, maize, oli-seed rape
• Not one instance of any harm suffered by any consumer of GM crops/crop products • But have been opposed every step of the way • Golden Rice is a clear example of this
Gates Foundation: photosynthesis improvement in rice (‘one-cell C4’)
©John Bryant
Recent Developments
Salt-tolerant pasta wheat bred in Australia – conventional breeding but could have been done more easily by GM Trait introgressed from wild einkorn wheat but the gene itself has been identified
Drought-tolerant soybeans bred by GM techniques in Argentina, using a gene from sunflower
‘Moderately’ drought-tolerant maize licensed for commercialisation in USA
Thinking outside the box
Can algae ‘save the planet’?
Climate change genomics
SO … WILL GM CROPS ‘HELP TO ENSURE OUR SURVIVAL’? • GM crops are not are panacea for all problems in agriculture and crop science – far from it • GM techniques are part of an array of techniques available to the plant breeder • And it’s a tough call Ray DK, Mueller ND, West PC, Foley JA (2013) Yield Trends Are Insufficient to Double Global Crop Production by 2050. PLoS ONE 8(6): e66428. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0066428
• In addition to plant breeding we need more efficient crop husbandry and effective land use • Not forgetting non-science, non-agriculture issues
SO … WILL GM CROPS ‘HELP TO ENSURE OUR SURVIVAL’? • It’s your call!
