SINGER

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Company Update June 16, 2014

Singer Thailand

Buy (TP Bt23.00)

Momentum continuing in 2Q14E

Price Bt20.20

The fully functioning government under the National Council for Peace and Order and its rapid moves to restore confidence will help to resume domestic spending. It is expected that this will be clearly seen in 2H14. With fast-moving and flexible marketing strategies, we view that SINGER will benefit from the improvement in overall spending sentiment. This leads us to maintain a BUY rating with a target price of Bt23 (DCF, WACC 11.4%), implying 2014E PER of 17x. Sentiment improved but recovery to be clear in 2H14 In our recent conference call, SINGER admitted that consumer confidence has improved after the National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO) moved quickly to reimburse the money owed under the rice-pledging scheme. As this occurred in late May, SINGER expects spending power to be stronger in 2H14. Note that its customers in the agricultural sector account for 25% of the total. Consequently, its revenue growth guidance of 10% this year remains achievable. As far as its assets quality is concerned, SINGER said its NPLs have been declining after reaching a peak at nearly 7% in February. SINGER expects its NPLs to decline to below 6% by yearend. 2Q14E likely to be flat QoQ Given the poor market sentiment in early 2Q14, we preliminarily expect SINGER to post 2Q14E net profit of Bt103mn, dropping 3%YoY and almost flat QoQ. Its 2Q14E revenue will likely improve QoQ thanks to high seasonal sales items such as air conditioners and televisions. With a higher proportion of highmargin household product sales and effective cost control, its operating margin is expected to continue improving. Positive response to new Makro channel SINGER provided an update regarding its new channel through cash-and-carry Markro branches. After introducing its first branch at Bang-pli in February, a total of 12 branches have been opened at present, with another 5-6 branches to be added soon. With better-than-expected sales achieved from these branches, SINGER may accelerate its plan to cover all Makro branches within this year. Financial and Valuation FY Ended 31 Dec 2011 Revenue (Btmn) 2,383 Net Profit (Btmn) 142 EPS (Bt) 0.53 EPS Growth (%) 59% Dividend (Bt) 0.20 BV (Bt) 3.63 FY Ended 31 Dec 2011 PER (x) 10.90 EV/EBITDA (x) 9.48 PBV (x) 1.58 Dividend Yield (%) 3.5% ROE (%) 15.6% Net Gearing 60.6%

2012 2,951 226 0.84 59% 0.30 4.42 2012 19.93 14.15 3.78 1.8% 20.8% 47.9%

2013 3,627 321 1.19 42% 0.45 5.30 2013 15.50 12.71 3.47 2.4% 24.4% 65.9%

2014E 3,989 356 1.32 11% 0.53 6.17 2014E 15.33 12.46 3.27 2.6% 23.0% 49.0%

2015E 4,660 429 1.59 21% 0.64 7.24 2015E 12.71 10.26 2.79 3.1% 23.7% 41.7%

Stock Performance (%) 1M

3M

12M

Absolute

6.87

14.77

-8.60

Relative to SET

3.54

7.54

-14.37

Share data Reuters / Bloomberg

SING.BK/SINGER TB

Sector

Commerce

Paid-up Shares (m)

270.00

Par (Bt)

1.00

Market cap (Bt bn / US$ m)

5.00/168.00

Foreign limit / actual (%)

49.00/40.35

52 week High / Low (Bt)

25.25/15.90

Avg. daily T/O (shares 000)

695.00

NVDR (%)

1.09

Estimated free float (%)

59.97

Beta

1.01

URL

www.singerthai.co.th

Major Shareholders (21/03/2014) Singer (Thailand) B.V.

40.00 %

Kasikornbank Plc.

5.00 %

Mayuree Wongkaewcharoen

2.41 % FY14

FY15

Consensus EPS (Bt)

1.330

1.570

KT ZMICO vs. consensus

-0.8%

1.3%

Company Profile Singer Thailand PCL., is the distributor of various electric products and appliances under the “SINGER” brand and trademark such as sewing machines, home appliances, together with commercial appliances that are aimed at meeting the varying range of needs of both household consumers and small shops. These appliances and products are sold via retail outlets that are branches of the Company as well as via our numerous sales representatives. More than 80% of such sales are made on a hire purchase installment basis; whereby the Company provides such installment sales through its subsidiary company, Singer Leasing (Thailand) Co., Ltd., in which the Singer has a 99.99% equity holding. CGR 2013

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak Analyst, no. 2482 [email protected] 66 (0) 2624-6273

REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES

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Figure 1: Earnings preview

Source: Company and KT ZMICO Research

Figure 2: Operating performance

Source: Company and KT ZMICO Research

Figure 3: PER and PBV band (X)

PER (x)

30.00  25.00 

+2.0SD

20.00  15.00  10.00 

+1.0SD Average

5.00  ‐

‐0.5SD

(5.00) (10.00) (15.00) Jan‐ Feb‐ Mar‐ Apr‐ Jun‐ Aug‐ Oct‐ Dec‐ Feb‐ Mar‐ Apr‐ May‐ 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 11 12 13 14

6.0 5.5 5.0 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0

(X)

PBV (x) +3 S.D. +2 S.D. +1 S.D. Average

‐0.5SD Jan‐ Feb‐ Mar‐ Apr‐ Jun‐ Aug‐ Oct‐ Dec‐ Feb‐ Mar‐ Apr‐ May‐ 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 11 12 13 14

Source: Bloomberg and KT ZMICO Research

REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES

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FINANCIAL TABLE PROFIT & LOSS (Btm) Revenues Cost of sales and service Gross profit SG&A EBITDA Depreciation & amortization EBIT Interest expense Other income / exp. EBT Corporate tax Extra Items Net profit Reported EPS Fully diluted EPS Core net profit Core EPS Dividend (Bt)

2011 2,383 (1,086) 1,297 (1,110) 169 (25) 202 (58) 15 144 (1) 0 142 0.53 0.53 142 0.53 0.20

2012 2,951 (1,341) 1,610 (1,289) 314 (24) 335 (45) 13 290 (63) 0 226 0.84 0.84 226 0.84 0.30

2013 3,627 (1,764) 1,863 (1,437) 410 (26) 439 (55) 13 385 (64) 0 321 1.19 1.19 321 1.19 0.45

2014E 3,989 (1,943) 2,046 (1,581) 445 (22) 481 (58) 16 423 (67) 0 356 1.32 1.32 356 1.32 0.53

2015E 4,660 (2,271) 2,389 (1,828) 545 (31) 580 (66) 20 515 (86) 0 429 1.59 1.59 429 1.59 0.64

BALANCE SHEET (Btm) Cash and equivalents Current portion of installment receivables Inventories Installment Receivables PP&E-net Other assets Total assets ST debt & current portion Long-term debt Total liabilities Paid-up shares Shareholder equity Total liab. & shareholder equity

2011 141 893 262 370 308 255 2,229 6 638 1,249 270 981 2,229

2012 194 1,125 197 468 361 365 2,710 15 600 1,517 270 1,193 2,710

2013 202 1,409 327 589 361 369 3,256 225 770 1,824 270 1,432 3,256

2014E 153 1,403 321 587 379 419 3,262 0 720 1,596 270 1,667 3,262

2015E 155 1,518 373 633 388 462 3,530 0 450 1,576 270 1,954 3,530

CASH FLOW (Btm) Net income Depreciation & amortization Change in working capital Cash flow from operations Capex (Invest)/Divest Others Cash flow from investing Debt financing (repayment) Equity financing Dividend payment Others Cash flow from financing Net change in cash Free cash flow FCF per share (Bt)

2011 142 25 (33) 134 (10) 0 (9) (88) 0 (27) (58) (173) (48) 125 0.46

2012 226 24 (110) 141 (20) 1 (18) 30 0 (54) (46) (70) 53 121 0.45

2013 321 26 (570) (223) (18) 2 (16) 380 0 (81) (52) 247 8 -241 -0.89

2014E 356 22 (85) 293 (40) (6) (46) (175) 0 (122) 0 (296) (48) 253 0.94

2015E 429 31 (275) 185 (41) 0 (41) 0 0 (142) 0 (142) 2 144 0.53

PROFITABILITY Revenue grow th (%) EBITDA grow th (%) EPS grow th (%) Gross margin (%) EBITDA margin (%) Operating margin (%) Net margin (%) Core profit margin (%) Effective tax rate (%)

2011 14.6 60.1 59.4 54.4 9.5 7.9 6.0 6.0 1.0

2012 23.8 58.5 58.8 54.6 12.2 10.9 7.7 7.7 21.9

2013 22.9 29.5 41.7 51.4 12.8 11.8 8.8 8.8 16.6

2014E 10.0 8.2 11.0 51.3 12.6 11.7 8.9 8.9 15.9

2015E 16.8 21.4 20.6 51.3 13.1 12.0 9.2 9.2 16.6

FINANCIAL QUALITY Total debt (Btm) Net debt (Cash) (Btm) Net debt to equity (x) Interest coverage (x)

735 594 0.61 3.49

765 571 0.48 7.42

1,145 943 0.66 8.02

970 817 0.49 8.31

970 815 0.42 8.84

REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES

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DISCLAIMER This document is produced using open sources believed to be reliable. However, their accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. The statements and opinions herein were formed after due and careful consideration for use as information for the purposes of investment. The opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. This document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. The use of any information contained in this document shall be at the sole discretion and risk of the user.

KT ZMICO RESEARCH – RECOMMENDATION DEFINITIONS STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS BUY: Expecting positive total returns of 15% or more over the next 12 months TRADING BUY: Expecting positive total returns of 10% or more over the next 3 months

SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS OVERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to outperform the relevant primary market index by at least 10% over the next 12 months.

SELL INTO STRENGTH: Expecting total returns between -10% to +10% over the next 12 month; share price has largely priced in fundamentals

The industry, as defined by the NEUTRAL: analyst's coverage universe, is expected to perform in line with the relevant primary market index over the next 12 months.

SELL: Expecting negative total returns of 10% or more over the next 12 months

UNDERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to underperform the relevant primary market index by 10% over the next 12 months.

REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES

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KT•ZMICO Securities Company Limited

st

8 , 15 -17 , 19 , 21 Floor, Liberty Square Bldg., 287 Silom Road, Bangrak, Bangkok 10500 Telephone: (66-2) 695-5000

Phaholyothin Branch

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Fax. (66-2) 631-1709

Ploenchit Branch

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nd

2

Sindhorn Branch

3 Floor, Shinnawatra Tower II,

8 Floor, Ton Son Tower,

1291/1 Phaholyothin Road,

900 Ploenchit Road, Lumpini,

Floor, Sindhorn Tower 1, 130-132 Wireless Road, Lumpini,

Phayathai, Bangkok 10400

Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330

Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330

Telephone: (66-2) 686-1500

Telephone: (66-2) 626-6000

Telephone: (66-2) 627-3550

Fax. (66-2) 686-1666

Fax. (66-2) 626-6111

Fax. (66-2) 627-3582, 627-3600

Nakhon Pathom Branch 1156 Petchakasem Road, Sanamchan Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang , Nakhon Pathom Province 73000 Telephone: (034) 271300 Fax: (034) 271300 #100

Chachoengsao Branch

Viphavadee Branch

Phitsanulok Branch

G Floor, Lao Peng Nguan 1 Bldg.,

Krung Thai Bank, Singhawat Branch

333 Soi Cheypuand, Viphavadee-Rangsit Road,

114 Singhawat Road,

Ladyao, Jatujak, Bangkok 10900

Muang, Phitsanulok 65000

Telephone: (66-2) 618-8500

Telephone: 083-490-2873

Fax. (66-2) 618-8569

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Chonburi Branch

Pattaya Branch

108/34-36 Mahajakkrapad Road,

4 Floor, Forum Plaza Bldg.,

382/6-8 Moo 9, T. NongPrue,

T.Namuang, A.Muang,

870/52 Sukhumvit Road, T. Bangplasoy,

A. Banglamung, Cholburi 20260

Chachoengsao 24000

A. Muang, Cholburi 20000

Telephone: (038) 362-420-9

Telephone: (038) 813-088

Telephone: (038) 287-635

Fax. (038) 362-430

Fax. (038) 813-099

Fax. (038) 287-637

Khon Kaen Branch

5th Floor, Charoen Thani Princess Hotel,

Hat Yai Branch

Sriworajak Building Branch

200/301 Juldis Hatyai Plaza Floor 3,

1st – 2nd Floor, Sriworajak Building, 222

260 Srichan Road, T. Naimuang,

Niphat-Uthit 3 Rd,

Luang Road, Pomprab,

A. Muang, Khon Kaen 40000

Hatyai Songkhla 90110

Bankgok 10100

Telephone: (043) 389-171-193

Telephone: (074) 355-530-3

Telephone: (02) 689-3100

Fax. (043) 389-209

Fax: (074) 355-534

Fax. (02) 689-3199

Central World Branch

Chiang Mai Branch

Phuket Branch

999/9 The Offices at Central World,

422/49 Changklan Road, Changklan

22/61-63, Luang Por Wat Chalong Road,

16th Fl., Rama 1 Rd, Pathumwan,

Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang,

Talat Yai, Mueang Phuket,

Bangkok 10330

Chiang Mai 50100

Phuket 83000

Telephone: (66-2) 673-5000,

Telephone: (053) 270-072

Tel. (076) 222-811,(076) 222-683

(66-2) 264-5888 Fax. (66-2) 264-5899

Fax: (053) 272-618

Fax. (076) 222-861

Pak Chong Branch

Cyber Branch @ North Nana

173 175, Mittapap Road,

Krung Thai Bank PCL, 2 Floor, North Nana Branch 35 Sukhumvit Rd.,Klong Toey Nua Subdistrict , Wattana District, Bangkok 10110 Telephone: 083-490-2871

Nong Sarai, Pak Chong, Nakhon Ratchasima 30130 Tel. (044) 279-511 Fax. (044) 279-574

Nakhon Ratchasima Branch

Bangkhae Branch

6th Floor The Mall Group Building Bangkhae 275 Moo 1 Petchkasem Road, North Bangkhae, Bangkhae, Bangkok 10160 Tel. (66-2) 454-9979 Fax. (66-2) 454-9970

624/9 Changphuek Road, . Naimaung, A.Maung, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000 Telephone: (044) 247222 Fax: (044) 247171 Information herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its completeness and accuracy are not guaranteed. All opinions expressed constitute our views on that date and are not intended as an offer or solicitation to sell or buy any securities. Investors should exercise care when making a decision to invest in securities. No one may modify or distribute any part of this report unless written permission is first received from Seamico Securities Plc. If any modifications are made, quotes or references taken from the report and the report date must be clearly mentioned and must not cause misunderstanding or damage to the company.