Singer Thailand Buy (16E TP Bt9.30)
Earnings Review
Close Bt8.05
Commerce
Beat forecast/Below forecast/In line
February 23, 2016
2015 results below view Price Performance (%)
Earnings recovery underway The weak domestic spending hurt SINGER’s 2015 operating performance. 2016 will be a challenging period for SINGER with its shift to a multi‐ brand and multi‐product strategy. We keep our BUY rating unchanged with the expectation that earnings recovery is underway. 2015 results below expectation SINGER posted a 2015 net profit of Bt143mn (EPS: Bt0.53), lower than our forecast and the market consensus by 10% and 3%, respectively. The main deviation came from a lower gross margin. NP fell 41%YoY in 2015 Total revenue declined by 1.5% to Bt3.4bn due to the fall in products sales (‐5.5%) and interest from the HP contract (‐9.8%) while service revenue doubled. Its GPM dropped to 50.7% from 54.2% in 2014 on price reductions on particular products to compete with the market and the accounting effect of higher reverted products from overdue hire purchase contracts being closed. This combined with inflating SG&A expenses drove its NP down by 41%YoY. Its 4Q15 NP surged 17.1%YoY and 175.6%QoQ to Bt29mn on controlled SG&A expenses. Its 4Q15 NPLs improved to 6.1% from 6.8% in 3Q15, but the percentage of paying accounts continued to head south to 89.2%.
Source: SET Smart
FY16
FY17
Consensus EPS (Bt)
0.650
0.740
KT ZMICO vs. consensus Share data
3.1%
5.4%
Reuters / Bloomberg
SINGER.BK/SINGER TB
Paid‐up Shares (m)
270.00
Par (Bt)
1.00
Market cap (Bt bn / US$ m)
2.00/61.00
Foreign limit / actual (%)
49.00/1.07
52 week High / Low (Bt)
15.80/7.45
Avg. daily T/O (shares 000)
865.00
NVDR (%)
5.73
Estimated free float (%)
59.97
Beta
1.01
URL
www.singerthai.co.th
CGR
Anti‐corruption
Level 4 (Certified)
Waraporn Wiboonkanarak Analyst, no. 2482
[email protected] 66 (0) 2624‐6273
To pay Bt0.30 for 2015; goes XD on 11 March SINGER announced to pay DPS of Bt0.30 for the 2015 operating performance, representing an annualized yield of 3.7%. The XD sign will be posted on 11 March with the payment to be made on 27 May. 2016 to be a challenging year SINGER has set an ambitious revenue sales target of Bt4bn, implying growth of 18%YoY in 2016. This will be backed by its strategy shift to sell non‐SINGER products in a bid to better serve clients’ demand. The product portfolio will focus on recognized brands such as SUMSUNG, LG, SHARP and Master Kool. This will help SINGER save operating costs including brand advertisements and product warranties. With the fragile spending recovery, particularly in rural areas, we conservatively estimate 2016E sales and NP growth of 12% and 26%, respectively. Financials and Valuation FY Ended 31 Dec Revenues (Btmn) Net profit (Btmn) EPS (Bt) EPS growth (%) Dividend (Bt) BV (Bt) FY Ended 31 Dec Norm. PER (x) EV/EBITDA (x) P/BV (x) Dividend yield (%) ROE (%) Net gearing (%)
2014 3,536 241 0.89 ‐25% 0.53 5.84 2014 14.20 11.12 2.17 4.2% 16.0% 48.6%
2015 3,377 143 0.53 ‐41% 0.30 5.84 2015 16.69 12.75 1.51 3.4% 9.1% 47.6%
2016E 3,768 180 0.67 26% 0.40 6.21 2016E 12.08 10.07 1.30 5.0% 11.1% 50.9%
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 1 of 4
2017E 4,225 212 0.78 18% 0.47 6.60 2017E 10.26 7.75 1.22 5.8% 12.2% 29.6%
2018E 4,677 227 0.84 7% 0.50 6.97 2018E 9.57 7.70 1.16 6.3% 12.4% 41.1%
Figure 1: Earnings review Profit and Loss Statement (Btmn) Fiscal Year‐Ended Dec. 4Q14 3Q15 Revenue 736 793 Gross profit 392 408 SG&A (353) (385) EBITDA 52 33 Interest expense (14) (13) Other income 6 3 Income tax (7) (3) Net profit (loss) 25 11 Normalized profit (loss) 25 11 Reported EPS (Bt) 0.09 0.04 Gross margin 53.3% 51.4% EBITDA margin 7.1% 4.1% Net margin 3.4% 1.3% Current ratio (x) 2.77 1.52 Interest coverage (x) 3.37 2.04 Debt to equity (x) 1.13 1.25 BVPS 5.84 5.74 ROE 16.0% 9.0% Source: The Company and KT Zmico Research
4Q15 739 341 (304) 48 (12) 3 (0) 29 29 0.11 46.2% 6.5% 3.9% 1.60 3.53 1.12 5.84 9.1%
%QoQ ‐6.9% ‐16.3% ‐21.2% 46.6% ‐8.2% 1.3% ‐82.5% 175.6% 175.6% 175.6%
1.9%
%YoY 0.4% ‐13.0% ‐13.9% ‐8.0% ‐13.4% ‐56.0% ‐93.5% 17.1% 17.1% 17.1%
2014 3,536 1,918 (1,580) 377 (58) 12 (51) 241 241 0.89 54.2% 10.7% 6.8% 2.77 6.01 1.13 0.0% 5.84 16.0%
2015 3,377 1,711 (1,508) 246 (51) 14 (26) 143 143 0.53 50.7% 7.3% 4.2% 1.60 4.34 1.12 5.84 9.1%
%YoY ‐4.5% ‐10.8% ‐4.5% ‐34.7% ‐13.2% 14.2% ‐48.4% ‐40.7% ‐40.7% ‐40.7%
0.0%
Figure 2: Operating summary
Source: KT Zmico Research REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 2 of 4
Figure 3: PER and PBV band
Source: KT Zmico Research
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 3 of 4
Note: KT ZMICO is a partnership between KTB and ZMICO. An executive of KT ZMICO Securities is also a board member of BCP, BTC, CI, CPI, KBS, MAJOR, MK, PACE, PSL, SVH, VNG, ZMICO, SAWAD, TFG. A management member of KT ZMICO Securities is also a board member of BTC and NFC. KT ZMICO is a financial advisor for U, LOXLEY, SUTHA, ZMICO, MAKRO, CPALL, SAFARI, PACE, PLE, TPOLY. KT ZMICO is a co‐underwriter of TKN. Anti‐corruption Progress Indicator Level 1 (Committed) : Organization’s statement or board's resolution to work against corruption and to be in compliance with all relevant laws. Level 2 (Declared) : Public declaration statement to participate in Thailand's private sector Collective Action Coalition Against Corruption (CAC) or equivalent initiatives Level 3 (Established) : Public out preventive measures, risk assessment, communication and training for all employees, including consistent monitoring and review processes Level 4 (Certified) : Audit engagement by audit committee or auditors approved by the office of SEC, and receiving certification or assurance by independent external assurance providers (CAC etc.) Level 5 (Extended) : Extension of the anti‐corruption policy to business partners in the supply chain, and disclosure of any current investigations, prosecutions or closed cases Insufficient or not clearly defined policy
Data not available / no policy
DISCLAIMER This document is produced using open sources believed to be reliable. However, their accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. The statements and opinions herein were formed after due and careful consideration for use as information for the purposes of investment. The opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. This document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. The use of any information contained in this document shall be at the sole discretion and risk of the user.
KT ZMICO RESEARCH – RECOMMENDATION DEFINITIONS STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS BUY: Expecting positive total returns of 15% or more over the next 12 months OUTPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to exceed market returns over a six‐month period due to specific catalysts UNDERPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to be below market returns over a six‐month period due to specific catalysts SELL: Expecting negative total returns of 10% or more over the next 12 months
SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS OVERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to outperform the relevant primary market index by at least 10% over the next 12 months. NEUTRAL: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to perform in line with the relevant primary market index over the next 12 months. UNDERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to underperform the relevant primary market index by 10% over the next 12 months.
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 4 of 4
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KT•ZMICO Securities Company Limited
st
8 , 15 -17 , 19 , 21 Floor, Liberty Square Bldg., 287 Silom Road, Bangrak, Bangkok 10500 Telephone: (66-2) 695-5000
Phaholyothin Branch
rd
Fax. (66-2) 631-1709
Ploenchit Branch
th
nd
2
Sindhorn Branch
3 Floor, Shinnawatra Tower II,
8 Floor, Ton Son Tower,
1291/1 Phaholyothin Road,
900 Ploenchit Road, Lumpini,
Floor, Sindhorn Tower 1, 130-132 Wireless Road, Lumpini,
Phayathai, Bangkok 10400
Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330
Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330
Telephone: (66-2) 686-1500
Telephone: (66-2) 626-6000
Telephone: (66-2) 627-3550
Fax. (66-2) 686-1666
Fax. (66-2) 626-6111
Fax. (66-2) 627-3582, 627-3600
Nakhon Pathom Branch 1156 Petchakasem Road, Sanamchan Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang , Nakhon Pathom Province 73000 Telephone: (034) 271300 Fax: (034) 271300 #100
Chachoengsao Branch
Viphavadee Branch
Phitsanulok Branch
G Floor, Lao Peng Nguan 1 Bldg.,
Krung Thai Bank, Singhawat Branch
333 Soi Cheypuand, Viphavadee-Rangsit Road,
114 Singhawat Road,
Ladyao, Jatujak, Bangkok 10900
Muang, Phitsanulok 65000
Telephone: (66-2) 618-8500
Telephone: 083-490-2873
Fax. (66-2) 618-8569
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Chonburi Branch
Pattaya Branch
108/34-36 Mahajakkrapad Road,
4 Floor, Forum Plaza Bldg.,
382/6-8 Moo 9, T. NongPrue,
T.Namuang, A.Muang,
870/52 Sukhumvit Road, T. Bangplasoy,
A. Banglamung, Cholburi 20260
Chachoengsao 24000
A. Muang, Cholburi 20000
Telephone: (038) 362-420-9
Telephone: (038) 813-088
Telephone: (038) 287-635
Fax. (038) 362-430
Fax. (038) 813-099
Fax. (038) 287-637
Khon Kaen Branch
5th Floor, Charoen Thani Princess Hotel,
Hat Yai Branch
Sriworajak Building Branch
200/301 Juldis Hatyai Plaza Floor 3,
1st – 2nd Floor, Sriworajak Building, 222
260 Srichan Road, T. Naimuang,
Niphat-Uthit 3 Rd,
Luang Road, Pomprab,
A. Muang, Khon Kaen 40000
Hatyai Songkhla 90110
Bankgok 10100
Telephone: (043) 389-171-193
Telephone: (074) 355-530-3
Telephone: (02) 689-3100
Fax. (043) 389-209
Fax: (074) 355-534
Fax. (02) 689-3199
Central World Branch
Chiang Mai Branch
Phuket Branch
999/9 The Offices at Central World,
422/49 Changklan Road, Changklan
22/61-63, Luang Por Wat Chalong Road,
16th Fl., Rama 1 Rd, Pathumwan,
Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang,
Talat Yai, Mueang Phuket,
Bangkok 10330
Chiang Mai 50100
Phuket 83000
Telephone: (66-2) 673-5000,
Telephone: (053) 270-072
Tel. (076) 222-811,(076) 222-683
(66-2) 264-5888 Fax. (66-2) 264-5899
Fax: (053) 272-618
Fax. (076) 222-861
Pak Chong Branch
Cyber Branch @ North Nana
173 175, Mittapap Road,
Krung Thai Bank PCL, 2 Floor, North Nana Branch 35 Sukhumvit Rd.,Klong Toey Nua Subdistrict , Wattana District, Bangkok 10110 Telephone: 083-490-2871
Nong Sarai, Pak Chong, Nakhon Ratchasima 30130 Tel. (044) 279-511 Fax. (044) 279-574
Nakhon Ratchasima Branch
Bangkhae Branch
6th Floor The Mall Group Building Bangkhae 275 Moo 1 Petchkasem Road, North Bangkhae, Bangkhae, Bangkok 10160 Tel. (66-2) 454-9979 Fax. (66-2) 454-9970
624/9 Changphuek Road, . Naimaung, A.Maung, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000 Telephone: (044) 247222 Fax: (044) 247171 Information herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its completeness and accuracy are not guaranteed. All opinions expressed constitute our views on that date and are not intended as an offer or solicitation to sell or buy any securities. Investors should exercise care when making a decision to invest in securities. No one may modify or distribute any part of this report unless written permission is first received from Seamico Securities Plc. If any modifications are made, quotes or references taken from the report and the report date must be clearly mentioned and must not cause misunderstanding or damage to the company.