Somboon Advance Technology Outperform (15E TP Bt20.40)
Company Update
Close Bt18.50
Automotive May 26, 2015
Earnings upgrade/Earnings downgrade/ Overview unchanged
Weak auto output in April as expected Near‐term share performance capped by weak 2Q15E earnings Our OUTPERFORM rating is maintained for SAT as we anticipate an earnings upturn in 2H15. Nevertheless, the slow pace of overall auto market recovery as well as the loss of orders from its key client during the transition to a new model change will have an adverse impact on SAT’s earnings performance in 2Q15E. This may limit its near‐term share price movement.
FY15
FY16
Consensus EPS (Bt)
1.806
2.008
KT ZMICO vs. consensus Share data
3.0%
3.6%
Reuters / Bloomberg
SAT.BK/SAT TB
Paid‐up Shares (m)
425.19
Par (Bt)
1.00
Market cap (Bt bn / US$ m)
8.00/234.00
Foreign limit / actual (%)
49.00/23.50
52 week High / Low (Bt)
25.00/15.80
Avg. daily T/O (shares 000) NVDR (%)
903.00 5.34
Estimated free float (%)
55.44
Beta
0.74
URL
www.satpcl.co.th
CGR
Weak auto output in April as expected With the series of public holidays, auto output in April eased 2.2%YoY to 123,968 units, according to the Federation of Thai Industries (FTI). About two‐thirds of the output went to the export market. Solid demand for eco‐cars in Europe and North America and the bounce back of demand in the Australian and Asian markets enabled auto exports to grow 18%YoY to 82,130 units. The slow pace of spending recovery due partly to low farm prices, along with stricter car loan approvals, pushed domestic car sales down to 54,058 units, decreasing 26%YoY. Recovery in auto output is underway The FTI estimates that auto output will increase to 490,559 units in May to July, increasing 7%YoY. This indicates the recovery in the auto industry is underway. With slower‐than‐expected domestic car sales in 4M15, the FTI cut its 2015E auto output estimate by 7% to 2.0mn units, increasing 9%YoY. Still, we believe that our auto output forecast at 2.1mn units is likely to be achievable thanks to the strength of the export market. View unchanged despite expectation of weak results in 2Q15E The series of public holidays together with the volume loss from production line modifications in preparation for a client’s new model change will lead to weak earnings for SAT in 2Q15E. However, we expect its performance to resume in 2H15E on the back of overall auto output recovery and more orders from client’s new model launches. We thus keep our earnings forecasts for 2015E‐2016E unchanged. Financials and Valuation FY Ended 31 Dec
2012
2013
2014
2015E
2016E
Revenues (Btmn)
9,410
8,973
8,084
8,843
9,471
Net profit (Btmn)
804
966
650
790
885
EPS (Bt)
2.36
2.27
1.53
1.86
2.08
Norm. EPS (Bt)
2.30
1.91
1.53
1.86
2.08
EPS growth (%)
80.08
(17.02)
(19.88)
21.65
12.06
Dividend (Bt)
0.97
0.75
0.60
0.74
0.83
12.21
11.47
12.27
13.50
14.84
FY Ended 31 Dec
2012
2013
2014
2015E
2016E
PER (x)
13.26
7.55
10.60
9.95
8.88
7.38
4.64
5.28
5.10
4.41
BV (Bt)
Waraporn Wiboonkanarak
EV/EBITDA (x)
Analyst, no. 2482
PBV (x)
2.50
1.26
1.32
1.37
1.25
[email protected] 66 (0) 2624‐6273
Dividend yield (%)
3.18
5.21
3.70
4.02
4.50
ROE (%)
19.29
21.42
12.88
14.42
14.69
Net gearing (%)
55.76
45.17
34.47
21.48
9.92
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 1 of 4
Figure 1: Auto market
Source: The Federation of Thai Industries
Figure 2: PER and PBV band
PER (x)
25
PBV (x)
3.5 3.0
20 2.5
+2 S.D.
+1 S.D.
15
2.0 +1 S.D.
10
1.5 Average
Average
1.0 0.5
‐1 S.D.
-1 S.D.
Source: Bloomberg and KTZMICO Research
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 2 of 4
May‐15
May‐14
Jun‐13
Jul‐12
Aug‐11
Sep‐10
Oct‐09
Nov‐08
Nov‐07
Jan‐07
May‐15
May‐14
Jun‐13
Jul‐12
Aug‐11
Sep‐10
Oct‐09
Nov‐08
Nov‐07
Jan‐07
Jan‐06
Jan‐05
Jan‐06
0.0
0
Jan‐05
5
Financial Summary PROFIT & LOSS (Btm) Revenues Cost of sales and service Gross profit SG&A EBITDA Depreciation & amortization EBIT Interest expense Equity earnings Other income / exp. EBT Corporate tax Net profit Reported EPS Core net profit Core EPS Dividend (Bt)
2012 9,410 (7,926) 1,484 (641) 1,722 (720) 1,002 (160) 11 159 1,011 (70) 804 2.36 810 2.30 0.97
2013 8,973 (7,404) 1,569 (721) 1,793 (769) 1,024 (157) 29 173 1,069 (85) 966 2.27 802 1.91 0.75
2014 8,084 (6,667) 1,417 (705) 1,646 (839) 807 (147) 59 91 810 (69) 650 1.53 650 1.53 0.60
2015E 8,843 (7,243) 1,601 (747) 1,784 (814) 970 (152) 71 117 1,005 (98) 790 1.86 790 1.86 0.74
2016E 9,471 (7,729) 1,743 (788) 1,926 (847) 1,080 (166) 82 125 1,121 (110) 885 2.08 885 2.08 0.83
2012 815 670 5,739 2,197 9,421 23 2,574 5,272 4,149 9,421
2013 1,041 638 6,392 1,853 9,923 3 2,701 5,050 4,873 9,923
2014 975 625 6,125 2,088 9,814 1 2,246 4,596 5,217 9,814
2015E 884 663 5,913 2,204 9,664 9 1,669 3,944 5,739 9,684
2016E 910 797 5,567 2,330 9,603 4 1,092 3,340 6,309 9,648
2012 804 720 90 154 1,768 (904) (192) (1,096) (48) 0 (136) (141) (324) 347 863 2.54
2013 966 769 67 25 1,827 (1,427) 108 (1,319) 106 86 (249) (226) (283) 226 401 0.94
2014 650 839 (97) 86 1,477 (576) (149) (724) (457) 4 (306) (59) (818) (65) 902 2.12
2015E 790 814 (149) (0) 1,455 (600) (20) (620) (569) 0 (268) (90) (927) (91) 855 2.01
2016E 885 847 (255) (4) 1,472 (500) (49) (549) (582) 0 (316) 0 (898) 26 972 2.29
PROFITABILITY Revenue growth (%) EBITDA growth (%) EPS growth (%) Gross margin (%) EBITDA margin (%) Operating margin (%) Net margin (%) Core profit margin (%) Effective tax rate (%)
2012 46.5 44.9 96.9 15.8 18.3 9.0 8.5 8.3 8.3
2013 (4.6) 4.1 (3.8) 17.5 20.0 9.5 10.8 9.0 9.5
2014 (9.9) (8.2) (32.8) 17.5 20.4 8.8 8.0 8.0 9.6
2015E 9.4 8.4 21.5 18.1 20.2 9.7 8.9 8.9 11.0
2016E 7.1 8.0 12.1 18.4 20.3 10.1 9.3 9.4 11.0
FINANCIAL QUALITY Total debt (Btm) Total debt to capital employed (x) Net debt (Cash) (Btm) Net debt to equity (x) Interest coverage (x)
2,597 0.38 2,342 0.56 6.26
2,703 0.35 2,203 0.45 6.51
2,246 0.29 1,801 0.35 5.50
1,678 0.22 1,233 0.21 6.38
1,096 0.14 626 0.10 6.52
BALANCE SHEET (Btm) Cash and equivalents Inventories PP&E‐net Other assets Total assets ST debt & current portion Long‐term debt Total liabilities Shareholder equity Total liab. & shareholder equity CASH FLOW (Btm) Net income Depreciation & amortization Change in working capital FX, non‐cash adjustment & others Cash flow from operations Capex (Invest)/Divest Others Cash flow from investing Debt financing (repayment) Equity financing Dividend payment Others Cash flow from financing Net change in cash Free cash flow FCF per share (Bt)
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 3 of 4
DISCLAIMER This document is produced using open sources believed to be reliable. However, their accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. The statements and opinions herein were formed after due and careful consideration for use as information for the purposes of investment. The opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. This document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. The use of any information contained in this document shall be at the sole discretion and risk of the user.
KT ZMICO RESEARCH – RECOMMENDATION DEFINITIONS STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS BUY: Expecting positive total returns of 15% or more over the next 12 months OUTPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to exceed market return over six months period because of specific catalysts UNDERPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to below market return over six months period because of specific catalysts SELL: Expecting negative total returns of 10% or more over the next 12 months
SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS OVERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to outperform the relevant primary market index by at least 10% over the next 12 months. NEUTRAL: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to perform in line with the relevant primary market index over the next 12 months. UNDERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to underperform the relevant primary market index by 10% over the next 12 months.
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 4 of 4
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KT•ZMICO Securities Company Limited
st
8 , 15 -17 , 19 , 21 Floor, Liberty Square Bldg., 287 Silom Road, Bangrak, Bangkok 10500 Telephone: (66-2) 695-5000
Phaholyothin Branch
rd
Fax. (66-2) 631-1709
Ploenchit Branch
th
nd
2
Sindhorn Branch
3 Floor, Shinnawatra Tower II,
8 Floor, Ton Son Tower,
1291/1 Phaholyothin Road,
900 Ploenchit Road, Lumpini,
Floor, Sindhorn Tower 1, 130-132 Wireless Road, Lumpini,
Phayathai, Bangkok 10400
Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330
Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330
Telephone: (66-2) 686-1500
Telephone: (66-2) 626-6000
Telephone: (66-2) 627-3550
Fax. (66-2) 686-1666
Fax. (66-2) 626-6111
Fax. (66-2) 627-3582, 627-3600
Nakhon Pathom Branch 1156 Petchakasem Road, Sanamchan Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang , Nakhon Pathom Province 73000 Telephone: (034) 271300 Fax: (034) 271300 #100
Chachoengsao Branch
Viphavadee Branch
Phitsanulok Branch
G Floor, Lao Peng Nguan 1 Bldg.,
Krung Thai Bank, Singhawat Branch
333 Soi Cheypuand, Viphavadee-Rangsit Road,
114 Singhawat Road,
Ladyao, Jatujak, Bangkok 10900
Muang, Phitsanulok 65000
Telephone: (66-2) 618-8500
Telephone: 083-490-2873
Fax. (66-2) 618-8569
th
Chonburi Branch
Pattaya Branch
108/34-36 Mahajakkrapad Road,
4 Floor, Forum Plaza Bldg.,
382/6-8 Moo 9, T. NongPrue,
T.Namuang, A.Muang,
870/52 Sukhumvit Road, T. Bangplasoy,
A. Banglamung, Cholburi 20260
Chachoengsao 24000
A. Muang, Cholburi 20000
Telephone: (038) 362-420-9
Telephone: (038) 813-088
Telephone: (038) 287-635
Fax. (038) 362-430
Fax. (038) 813-099
Fax. (038) 287-637
Khon Kaen Branch
5th Floor, Charoen Thani Princess Hotel,
Hat Yai Branch
Sriworajak Building Branch
200/301 Juldis Hatyai Plaza Floor 3,
1st – 2nd Floor, Sriworajak Building, 222
260 Srichan Road, T. Naimuang,
Niphat-Uthit 3 Rd,
Luang Road, Pomprab,
A. Muang, Khon Kaen 40000
Hatyai Songkhla 90110
Bankgok 10100
Telephone: (043) 389-171-193
Telephone: (074) 355-530-3
Telephone: (02) 689-3100
Fax. (043) 389-209
Fax: (074) 355-534
Fax. (02) 689-3199
Central World Branch
Chiang Mai Branch
Phuket Branch
999/9 The Offices at Central World,
422/49 Changklan Road, Changklan
22/61-63, Luang Por Wat Chalong Road,
16th Fl., Rama 1 Rd, Pathumwan,
Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang,
Talat Yai, Mueang Phuket,
Bangkok 10330
Chiang Mai 50100
Phuket 83000
Telephone: (66-2) 673-5000,
Telephone: (053) 270-072
Tel. (076) 222-811,(076) 222-683
(66-2) 264-5888 Fax. (66-2) 264-5899
Fax: (053) 272-618
Fax. (076) 222-861
Pak Chong Branch
Cyber Branch @ North Nana
173 175, Mittapap Road,
Krung Thai Bank PCL, 2 Floor, North Nana Branch 35 Sukhumvit Rd.,Klong Toey Nua Subdistrict , Wattana District, Bangkok 10110 Telephone: 083-490-2871
Nong Sarai, Pak Chong, Nakhon Ratchasima 30130 Tel. (044) 279-511 Fax. (044) 279-574
Nakhon Ratchasima Branch
Bangkhae Branch
6th Floor The Mall Group Building Bangkhae 275 Moo 1 Petchkasem Road, North Bangkhae, Bangkhae, Bangkok 10160 Tel. (66-2) 454-9979 Fax. (66-2) 454-9970
624/9 Changphuek Road, . Naimaung, A.Maung, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000 Telephone: (044) 247222 Fax: (044) 247171 Information herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its completeness and accuracy are not guaranteed. All opinions expressed constitute our views on that date and are not intended as an offer or solicitation to sell or buy any securities. Investors should exercise care when making a decision to invest in securities. No one may modify or distribute any part of this report unless written permission is first received from Seamico Securities Plc. If any modifications are made, quotes or references taken from the report and the report date must be clearly mentioned and must not cause misunderstanding or damage to the company.