Somboon Advance Technology Outperform (15E TP Bt20.40)
Somboon Advance Technology Outperform (15E TP Bt20.40)
Earnings Review
Close Bt19.00
Automotive February 20, 2015
Beat forecast/ Below forecast / In line
Results within expectation
FY15
FY16
Consensus EPS (Bt)
1.832
1.994
KT ZMICO vs. consensus Share data
‐16.5%
‐6.7%
Reuters / Bloomberg
SAT.BK/SAT TB
Paid‐up Shares (m)
425.19
Par (Bt)
1.00
Market cap (Bt bn / US$ m)
8.00/248.00
Foreign limit / actual (%)
49.00/21.92
52 week High / Low (Bt)
19.80/15.40
Avg. daily T/O (shares 000) NVDR (%)
1,188.00 5.58
Estimated free float (%)
46.79
Beta
0.60
URL
www.satpcl.co.th
CGR
Business gearing up, Outperform maintained SAT’s 2014 results were in line. The back‐to‐normal auto industry and continuation of effective cost management will enable its earnings to recover strongly in 2015. Thus, our Outperform rating is maintained. 4Q14 results in line SAT posted in‐line net profit of Bt211mn (EPS: Bt0.50) in 4Q14, down 49%YoY. Stripping out extra gain of Bt168mn booked in 4Q13, its normalized profit increased 2%YoY. The seasonal pickup of auto output and margin improvement were the reasons behind the positive earnings growth. Sales increased 4%YoY while its gross margin reached its peak in 15 quarters at 19.1% thanks to effective cost control. The SG&A‐to‐sales ratio also fell to only 6.7% from 7.8% last year. 2014 earnings drop in line with auto industry SAT reported a net profit of Bt650mn (EPS: Bt1.53), decreasing 33%YoY and 20%YoY if excluding extra items in 2013. The decrease in earnings was attributed to a 10% drop in sales in accordance with the auto industry. Overall auto output fell 23%YoY to 1.88mn units. Variable cost control, particularly on raw materials, helped to maintain the EBITDA margin at 20%. SAT also announced a DPS for 2H14 of Bt0.38, implying an annualized yield of 3.7% 2015E‐2016E earnings estimates maintained We keep our 2015E‐2016E earnings estimates unchanged. Its earnings are expected to bounce strongly by 22% this year to Bt790mn thanks to 9% growth in sales in line with the recovery of overall auto output together with continued effective cost control. Financial and Valuation FY Ended 31 Dec
2012
2013
2014E
2015E
2016E
Revenues (Btmn)
9,410
8,973
8,084
8,843
9,471
Net profit (Btmn)
804
966
650
790
885
EPS (Bt)
2.36
2.27
1.53
1.86
2.08
Norm. EPS (Bt)
2.30
1.91
1.53
1.86
2.08
EPS growth (%)
80.08
(17.02)
(19.88)
21.65
12.06
Dividend (Bt) BV (Bt)
0.97
0.75
0.60
0.74
0.83
12.21
11.47
12.27
13.49
14.83
Waraporn Wiboonkanarak
FY Ended 31 Dec
2012
2013
2014E
2015E
2016E
Analyst, no. 2482
PER (x)
13.26
7.55
10.60
10.22
9.12
[email protected] 66 (0) 2624‐6273
EV/EBITDA (x)
7.38
4.64
5.28
5.22
4.52
PBV (x)
2.50
1.26
1.32
1.41
1.28
Dividend yield (%) ROE (%) Net gearing (%)
3.18
5.21
3.70
3.91
4.38
19.29 55.76
21.42 45.17
12.88 34.47
14.42 21.59
14.71 10.00
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 1 of 3
Figure 1: Earnings review Profit and Loss Statement (Btmn) Fiscal Year‐Ended Dec. 4Q13 Revenue 2,008 Gross profit 380 SG&A (157) EBITDA 453 Interest expense (40) Other income 50 Income tax (31) Other extra items 201 Gain (Loss) from affiliates 4 Net profit (loss) 409 Normalized profit (loss) 209 Reported EPS (Bt) 0.96 Gross margin 18.9% EBITDA margin 22.6% Net margin 20.4% Current ratio (x) 1.37 Interest coverage (x) 6.98 Debt to equity (x) 1.04 BVPS 11.47 ROE 17.8%
1Q14 2,106 376 (187) 412 (41) 20 (21) 1 20 168 167 0.40 17.9% 19.6% 8.0% 1.38 5.10 1.00 11.85 14.7%
2Q14 1,881 327 (207) 372 (35) 44 (11) 1 9 128 127 0.30 17.4% 19.8% 6.8% 1.41 4.67 0.99 11.65 14.3%
3Q14 2,003 316 (171) 396 (36) 38 (16) 0 12 143 142 0.34 15.8% 19.8% 7.1% 1.37 5.05 0.96 11.77 13.7%
4Q14 %QoQ 2,093 4.5% 399 26.4% (141) ‐17.9% 466 17.8% (34) ‐4.3% (11) ‐128.7% (22) 40.9% (3) ‐1356.2% 19 60.0% 211 47.9% 214 50.3% 0.50 47.9% 19.1% 3.3% 22.3% 2.5% 10.1% 3.0% 1.42 7.29 0.88 12.27 4.3% 12.9%
%YoY 4.2% 4.9% ‐10.4% 2.9% ‐12.8% ‐121.7% ‐30.2% ‐101.5% 413.9% ‐48.5% 2.4% ‐48.5% 0.1% ‐0.3% ‐10.3%
2013 8,973 1,569 (721) 1,793 (157) 173 (85) 121 29 966 811 2.27 17.5% 20.0% 10.8% 1.37 6.51 1.04 7.0% 11.47 21.4%
2014 8,084 1,417 (705) 1,646 (147) 91 (69) (0) 59 650 650 1.53 17.5% 20.4% 8.0% 1.42 5.50 0.88 12.27 12.9%
Source: KTZMICO Research
Figure 2: PER and PBV band
Source: Bloomberg and KTZMICO Research
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 2 of 3
%YoY ‐9.9% ‐9.7% ‐2.2% ‐8.2% ‐6.7% ‐47.4% ‐18.3% ‐100.2% 105.0% ‐32.7% ‐19.8% ‐32.8%
7.0%
DISCLAIMER This document is produced using open sources believed to be reliable. However, their accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. The statements and opinions herein were formed after due and careful consideration for use as information for the purposes of investment. The opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. This document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. The use of any information contained in this document shall be at the sole discretion and risk of the user.
KT ZMICO RESEARCH – RECOMMENDATION DEFINITIONS STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS BUY: Expecting positive total returns of 15% or more over the next 12 months OUTPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to exceed market return over six months period because of specific catalysts UNDERPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to below market return over six months period because of specific catalysts SELL: Expecting negative total returns of 10% or more over the next 12 months
SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS OVERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to outperform the relevant primary market index by at least 10% over the next 12 months. NEUTRAL: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to perform in line with the relevant primary market index over the next 12 months. UNDERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to underperform the relevant primary market index by 10% over the next 12 months.
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 3 of 3
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th
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KT•ZMICO Securities Company Limited
st
8 , 15 -17 , 19 , 21 Floor, Liberty Square Bldg., 287 Silom Road, Bangrak, Bangkok 10500 Telephone: (66-2) 695-5000
Phaholyothin Branch
rd
Fax. (66-2) 631-1709
Ploenchit Branch
th
nd
2
Sindhorn Branch
3 Floor, Shinnawatra Tower II,
8 Floor, Ton Son Tower,
1291/1 Phaholyothin Road,
900 Ploenchit Road, Lumpini,
Floor, Sindhorn Tower 1, 130-132 Wireless Road, Lumpini,
Phayathai, Bangkok 10400
Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330
Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330
Telephone: (66-2) 686-1500
Telephone: (66-2) 626-6000
Telephone: (66-2) 627-3550
Fax. (66-2) 686-1666
Fax. (66-2) 626-6111
Fax. (66-2) 627-3582, 627-3600
Nakhon Pathom Branch 1156 Petchakasem Road, Sanamchan Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang , Nakhon Pathom Province 73000 Telephone: (034) 271300 Fax: (034) 271300 #100
Chachoengsao Branch
Viphavadee Branch
Phitsanulok Branch
G Floor, Lao Peng Nguan 1 Bldg.,
Krung Thai Bank, Singhawat Branch
333 Soi Cheypuand, Viphavadee-Rangsit Road,
114 Singhawat Road,
Ladyao, Jatujak, Bangkok 10900
Muang, Phitsanulok 65000
Telephone: (66-2) 618-8500
Telephone: 083-490-2873
Fax. (66-2) 618-8569
th
Chonburi Branch
Pattaya Branch
108/34-36 Mahajakkrapad Road,
4 Floor, Forum Plaza Bldg.,
382/6-8 Moo 9, T. NongPrue,
T.Namuang, A.Muang,
870/52 Sukhumvit Road, T. Bangplasoy,
A. Banglamung, Cholburi 20260
Chachoengsao 24000
A. Muang, Cholburi 20000
Telephone: (038) 362-420-9
Telephone: (038) 813-088
Telephone: (038) 287-635
Fax. (038) 362-430
Fax. (038) 813-099
Fax. (038) 287-637
Khon Kaen Branch
5th Floor, Charoen Thani Princess Hotel,
Hat Yai Branch
Sriworajak Building Branch
200/301 Juldis Hatyai Plaza Floor 3,
1st – 2nd Floor, Sriworajak Building, 222
260 Srichan Road, T. Naimuang,
Niphat-Uthit 3 Rd,
Luang Road, Pomprab,
A. Muang, Khon Kaen 40000
Hatyai Songkhla 90110
Bankgok 10100
Telephone: (043) 389-171-193
Telephone: (074) 355-530-3
Telephone: (02) 689-3100
Fax. (043) 389-209
Fax: (074) 355-534
Fax. (02) 689-3199
Central World Branch
Chiang Mai Branch
Phuket Branch
999/9 The Offices at Central World,
422/49 Changklan Road, Changklan
22/61-63, Luang Por Wat Chalong Road,
16th Fl., Rama 1 Rd, Pathumwan,
Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang,
Talat Yai, Mueang Phuket,
Bangkok 10330
Chiang Mai 50100
Phuket 83000
Telephone: (66-2) 673-5000,
Telephone: (053) 270-072
Tel. (076) 222-811,(076) 222-683
(66-2) 264-5888 Fax. (66-2) 264-5899
Fax: (053) 272-618
Fax. (076) 222-861
Pak Chong Branch
Cyber Branch @ North Nana
173 175, Mittapap Road,
Krung Thai Bank PCL, 2 Floor, North Nana Branch 35 Sukhumvit Rd.,Klong Toey Nua Subdistrict , Wattana District, Bangkok 10110 Telephone: 083-490-2871
Nong Sarai, Pak Chong, Nakhon Ratchasima 30130 Tel. (044) 279-511 Fax. (044) 279-574
Nakhon Ratchasima Branch
Bangkhae Branch
6th Floor The Mall Group Building Bangkhae 275 Moo 1 Petchkasem Road, North Bangkhae, Bangkhae, Bangkok 10160 Tel. (66-2) 454-9979 Fax. (66-2) 454-9970
624/9 Changphuek Road, . Naimaung, A.Maung, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000 Telephone: (044) 247222 Fax: (044) 247171 Information herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its completeness and accuracy are not guaranteed. All opinions expressed constitute our views on that date and are not intended as an offer or solicitation to sell or buy any securities. Investors should exercise care when making a decision to invest in securities. No one may modify or distribute any part of this report unless written permission is first received from Seamico Securities Plc. If any modifications are made, quotes or references taken from the report and the report date must be clearly mentioned and must not cause misunderstanding or damage to the company.
Earnings Review
Close Bt19.00
Automotive February 20, 2015
Beat forecast/ Below forecast / In line
Results within expectation
FY15
FY16
Consensus EPS (Bt)
1.832
1.994
KT ZMICO vs. consensus Share data
‐16.5%
‐6.7%
Reuters / Bloomberg
SAT.BK/SAT TB
Paid‐up Shares (m)
425.19
Par (Bt)
1.00
Market cap (Bt bn / US$ m)
8.00/248.00
Foreign limit / actual (%)
49.00/21.92
52 week High / Low (Bt)
19.80/15.40
Avg. daily T/O (shares 000) NVDR (%)
1,188.00 5.58
Estimated free float (%)
46.79
Beta
0.60
URL
www.satpcl.co.th
CGR
Business gearing up, Outperform maintained SAT’s 2014 results were in line. The back‐to‐normal auto industry and continuation of effective cost management will enable its earnings to recover strongly in 2015. Thus, our Outperform rating is maintained. 4Q14 results in line SAT posted in‐line net profit of Bt211mn (EPS: Bt0.50) in 4Q14, down 49%YoY. Stripping out extra gain of Bt168mn booked in 4Q13, its normalized profit increased 2%YoY. The seasonal pickup of auto output and margin improvement were the reasons behind the positive earnings growth. Sales increased 4%YoY while its gross margin reached its peak in 15 quarters at 19.1% thanks to effective cost control. The SG&A‐to‐sales ratio also fell to only 6.7% from 7.8% last year. 2014 earnings drop in line with auto industry SAT reported a net profit of Bt650mn (EPS: Bt1.53), decreasing 33%YoY and 20%YoY if excluding extra items in 2013. The decrease in earnings was attributed to a 10% drop in sales in accordance with the auto industry. Overall auto output fell 23%YoY to 1.88mn units. Variable cost control, particularly on raw materials, helped to maintain the EBITDA margin at 20%. SAT also announced a DPS for 2H14 of Bt0.38, implying an annualized yield of 3.7% 2015E‐2016E earnings estimates maintained We keep our 2015E‐2016E earnings estimates unchanged. Its earnings are expected to bounce strongly by 22% this year to Bt790mn thanks to 9% growth in sales in line with the recovery of overall auto output together with continued effective cost control. Financial and Valuation FY Ended 31 Dec
2012
2013
2014E
2015E
2016E
Revenues (Btmn)
9,410
8,973
8,084
8,843
9,471
Net profit (Btmn)
804
966
650
790
885
EPS (Bt)
2.36
2.27
1.53
1.86
2.08
Norm. EPS (Bt)
2.30
1.91
1.53
1.86
2.08
EPS growth (%)
80.08
(17.02)
(19.88)
21.65
12.06
Dividend (Bt) BV (Bt)
0.97
0.75
0.60
0.74
0.83
12.21
11.47
12.27
13.49
14.83
Waraporn Wiboonkanarak
FY Ended 31 Dec
2012
2013
2014E
2015E
2016E
Analyst, no. 2482
PER (x)
13.26
7.55
10.60
10.22
9.12
[email protected] 66 (0) 2624‐6273
EV/EBITDA (x)
7.38
4.64
5.28
5.22
4.52
PBV (x)
2.50
1.26
1.32
1.41
1.28
Dividend yield (%) ROE (%) Net gearing (%)
3.18
5.21
3.70
3.91
4.38
19.29 55.76
21.42 45.17
12.88 34.47
14.42 21.59
14.71 10.00
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 1 of 3
Figure 1: Earnings review Profit and Loss Statement (Btmn) Fiscal Year‐Ended Dec. 4Q13 Revenue 2,008 Gross profit 380 SG&A (157) EBITDA 453 Interest expense (40) Other income 50 Income tax (31) Other extra items 201 Gain (Loss) from affiliates 4 Net profit (loss) 409 Normalized profit (loss) 209 Reported EPS (Bt) 0.96 Gross margin 18.9% EBITDA margin 22.6% Net margin 20.4% Current ratio (x) 1.37 Interest coverage (x) 6.98 Debt to equity (x) 1.04 BVPS 11.47 ROE 17.8%
1Q14 2,106 376 (187) 412 (41) 20 (21) 1 20 168 167 0.40 17.9% 19.6% 8.0% 1.38 5.10 1.00 11.85 14.7%
2Q14 1,881 327 (207) 372 (35) 44 (11) 1 9 128 127 0.30 17.4% 19.8% 6.8% 1.41 4.67 0.99 11.65 14.3%
3Q14 2,003 316 (171) 396 (36) 38 (16) 0 12 143 142 0.34 15.8% 19.8% 7.1% 1.37 5.05 0.96 11.77 13.7%
4Q14 %QoQ 2,093 4.5% 399 26.4% (141) ‐17.9% 466 17.8% (34) ‐4.3% (11) ‐128.7% (22) 40.9% (3) ‐1356.2% 19 60.0% 211 47.9% 214 50.3% 0.50 47.9% 19.1% 3.3% 22.3% 2.5% 10.1% 3.0% 1.42 7.29 0.88 12.27 4.3% 12.9%
%YoY 4.2% 4.9% ‐10.4% 2.9% ‐12.8% ‐121.7% ‐30.2% ‐101.5% 413.9% ‐48.5% 2.4% ‐48.5% 0.1% ‐0.3% ‐10.3%
2013 8,973 1,569 (721) 1,793 (157) 173 (85) 121 29 966 811 2.27 17.5% 20.0% 10.8% 1.37 6.51 1.04 7.0% 11.47 21.4%
2014 8,084 1,417 (705) 1,646 (147) 91 (69) (0) 59 650 650 1.53 17.5% 20.4% 8.0% 1.42 5.50 0.88 12.27 12.9%
Source: KTZMICO Research
Figure 2: PER and PBV band
Source: Bloomberg and KTZMICO Research
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 2 of 3
%YoY ‐9.9% ‐9.7% ‐2.2% ‐8.2% ‐6.7% ‐47.4% ‐18.3% ‐100.2% 105.0% ‐32.7% ‐19.8% ‐32.8%
7.0%
DISCLAIMER This document is produced using open sources believed to be reliable. However, their accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. The statements and opinions herein were formed after due and careful consideration for use as information for the purposes of investment. The opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. This document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. The use of any information contained in this document shall be at the sole discretion and risk of the user.
KT ZMICO RESEARCH – RECOMMENDATION DEFINITIONS STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS BUY: Expecting positive total returns of 15% or more over the next 12 months OUTPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to exceed market return over six months period because of specific catalysts UNDERPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to below market return over six months period because of specific catalysts SELL: Expecting negative total returns of 10% or more over the next 12 months
SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS OVERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to outperform the relevant primary market index by at least 10% over the next 12 months. NEUTRAL: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to perform in line with the relevant primary market index over the next 12 months. UNDERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to underperform the relevant primary market index by 10% over the next 12 months.
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 3 of 3
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th
th
th
KT•ZMICO Securities Company Limited
st
8 , 15 -17 , 19 , 21 Floor, Liberty Square Bldg., 287 Silom Road, Bangrak, Bangkok 10500 Telephone: (66-2) 695-5000
Phaholyothin Branch
rd
Fax. (66-2) 631-1709
Ploenchit Branch
th
nd
2
Sindhorn Branch
3 Floor, Shinnawatra Tower II,
8 Floor, Ton Son Tower,
1291/1 Phaholyothin Road,
900 Ploenchit Road, Lumpini,
Floor, Sindhorn Tower 1, 130-132 Wireless Road, Lumpini,
Phayathai, Bangkok 10400
Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330
Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330
Telephone: (66-2) 686-1500
Telephone: (66-2) 626-6000
Telephone: (66-2) 627-3550
Fax. (66-2) 686-1666
Fax. (66-2) 626-6111
Fax. (66-2) 627-3582, 627-3600
Nakhon Pathom Branch 1156 Petchakasem Road, Sanamchan Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang , Nakhon Pathom Province 73000 Telephone: (034) 271300 Fax: (034) 271300 #100
Chachoengsao Branch
Viphavadee Branch
Phitsanulok Branch
G Floor, Lao Peng Nguan 1 Bldg.,
Krung Thai Bank, Singhawat Branch
333 Soi Cheypuand, Viphavadee-Rangsit Road,
114 Singhawat Road,
Ladyao, Jatujak, Bangkok 10900
Muang, Phitsanulok 65000
Telephone: (66-2) 618-8500
Telephone: 083-490-2873
Fax. (66-2) 618-8569
th
Chonburi Branch
Pattaya Branch
108/34-36 Mahajakkrapad Road,
4 Floor, Forum Plaza Bldg.,
382/6-8 Moo 9, T. NongPrue,
T.Namuang, A.Muang,
870/52 Sukhumvit Road, T. Bangplasoy,
A. Banglamung, Cholburi 20260
Chachoengsao 24000
A. Muang, Cholburi 20000
Telephone: (038) 362-420-9
Telephone: (038) 813-088
Telephone: (038) 287-635
Fax. (038) 362-430
Fax. (038) 813-099
Fax. (038) 287-637
Khon Kaen Branch
5th Floor, Charoen Thani Princess Hotel,
Hat Yai Branch
Sriworajak Building Branch
200/301 Juldis Hatyai Plaza Floor 3,
1st – 2nd Floor, Sriworajak Building, 222
260 Srichan Road, T. Naimuang,
Niphat-Uthit 3 Rd,
Luang Road, Pomprab,
A. Muang, Khon Kaen 40000
Hatyai Songkhla 90110
Bankgok 10100
Telephone: (043) 389-171-193
Telephone: (074) 355-530-3
Telephone: (02) 689-3100
Fax. (043) 389-209
Fax: (074) 355-534
Fax. (02) 689-3199
Central World Branch
Chiang Mai Branch
Phuket Branch
999/9 The Offices at Central World,
422/49 Changklan Road, Changklan
22/61-63, Luang Por Wat Chalong Road,
16th Fl., Rama 1 Rd, Pathumwan,
Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang,
Talat Yai, Mueang Phuket,
Bangkok 10330
Chiang Mai 50100
Phuket 83000
Telephone: (66-2) 673-5000,
Telephone: (053) 270-072
Tel. (076) 222-811,(076) 222-683
(66-2) 264-5888 Fax. (66-2) 264-5899
Fax: (053) 272-618
Fax. (076) 222-861
Pak Chong Branch
Cyber Branch @ North Nana
173 175, Mittapap Road,
Krung Thai Bank PCL, 2 Floor, North Nana Branch 35 Sukhumvit Rd.,Klong Toey Nua Subdistrict , Wattana District, Bangkok 10110 Telephone: 083-490-2871
Nong Sarai, Pak Chong, Nakhon Ratchasima 30130 Tel. (044) 279-511 Fax. (044) 279-574
Nakhon Ratchasima Branch
Bangkhae Branch
6th Floor The Mall Group Building Bangkhae 275 Moo 1 Petchkasem Road, North Bangkhae, Bangkhae, Bangkok 10160 Tel. (66-2) 454-9979 Fax. (66-2) 454-9970
624/9 Changphuek Road, . Naimaung, A.Maung, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000 Telephone: (044) 247222 Fax: (044) 247171 Information herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its completeness and accuracy are not guaranteed. All opinions expressed constitute our views on that date and are not intended as an offer or solicitation to sell or buy any securities. Investors should exercise care when making a decision to invest in securities. No one may modify or distribute any part of this report unless written permission is first received from Seamico Securities Plc. If any modifications are made, quotes or references taken from the report and the report date must be clearly mentioned and must not cause misunderstanding or damage to the company.
