South River TMDL Update
South River TMDL Update April 7, 2008
Point Sources HSPF : Hydrologic Model HSPF : Sediment Model
Jack Eggleston
Robert Brent
Point Source Summary
Point Sources in Model Model Facility name, Reach downstream order Stuarts Draft WWTP 1 Loth Spring 2 INVISTA/ former DuPont 2 outfall 001 2 outfall 003 2 outfall 004 2 outfall 008 2 outfall 009 2 outfall 010 2 outfall 011 (after 08/02) 2 outfall 012 2 outfall 013 2 outfall 014 2 Frew Pond, Baker Spring 2 Plant Site GW Discharge Waynesboro WWTP 2 Genicom 3 Alcoa 5
1984-2007 Annualized NPDES River Average Sediment Load Permit Mile Disch. (cfs) (Ton) HG Load (g) VA0066877 38.9 1.686 3.7 1.1 na 25.6 1.760 1.5 6.4 25.0 14 (total) 29 (total) 325 (total) VA0002160 " 4.816 12.4 142.5 VA0002160 " 0.066 0.4 2.9 na " 0.014 0.4 0.5 na " 0.375 4.5 87.1 na " 0.137 1.0 10.1 na " 0.050 2.3 10.2 VA0002160 " 0.011 2.1 44.1 na " 0.001 0.0 0.0 na " 0.003 0.0 0.1 na " 0.003 0.0 0.1 na " 7.911 5.9 25.5 na " 0.501 0.0 1.5 VA0025151 23.5 5.245 38.5 35.4 VA0002402 21.9 0.141 0.0 0.0 VA0001767 4.4 2.845 19.6 46.5 Totals 25.554 90.1 369.9
- Revised from last meeting based on: - Corrected error - Allocation period Draft, values subject to change,
April 1, 2008
April 1, 2005 - March 31, 2007, Annualized Average Disch. Total Sediment Total HG Load (cfs) Load (Ton) (g) 1.671 1.5 1.1 1.756 1.5 6.4 15 (total) 31 (total) 561 (total) 6.523 17.2 402.9 0.066 0.4 2.8 0.014 0.3 0.5 0.374 4.2 89.0 0.111 0.8 8.1 0.040 1.9 8.2 0.002 0.4 21.8 0.000 0.0 0.0 0.007 0.0 0.3 0.005 0.0 0.3 7.025 5.9 25.4 0.501 0.0 1.5 5.497 42.2 37.1 0.196 0.0 0.0 2.486 12.7 40.6 88.6 646.1 26.272
!
!(
Alcoa
Legend
5
X
USGS Monitoring Station (01626920)
!(
01627500, HARRISTON, VA
X
Point Source Discharge Model Stream Reach !
!
!
2
Subwatershed
!
!
!
4
South River Watershed
X ( Genicom 3 01626850, NEAR DOOMS, VA X ! !( Waynesboro STP 01626920, DOOMS, VA
01626000, WAYNESBORO, VA
X
!(
INVISTA - Dupont
2
!
!(
Stuarts Draft STP
1
.
! !
! !
Miles 0
1
2
4
6
8
10
3
Use of Point Source Data in the Model : Daily Point Source Loads
Loads From Other Sources
Water Column THg (ng/L)
Computer Model
Protective Target Daily Values
50
90-d Average
40
Hypothetical Data TMDL Reductions
30 20 10 0 4/1/2005
10/18/2005
5/6/2006
Allocation Period
11/22/2006 4
Hydrologic Response Units in Model : A51165 C51165
Determined by : Land Use County Geography
L eg e n d W ate r Low Inten sity R e side ntial
A51790
H igh Inte nsity R e side ntia l In du strial/Tra nsp ortatio n
26 land use categories 5 county/geography regions = 130 HRUs
Q u arries/M ine s
A51820
Tran sition al D ecidu ou s F o rest E vergre en F o rest M ixed F o rest
A51015
P asture/H ay C rop s U rba n G rasses W oo dy W e tla nd s
B51015
E m e rge nt W etla nd s Contaminated Floodplain
.
A51790 County / La nd-Use / Geography Region 5
2.5
0
5 M ile s
5
Major Hydrologic Processes Simulated in the Model
Precipitation
Interception Evapotranspiration Runoff w Interflo
Groundwater Recharge
Groundwater Discharge
6
Major Sediment Processes Simulated in the Model
7
Stream Flow Timeseries, Calibration Period, Harriston Streamflow (cfs), Run SR57, South River @ Harriston (016275000)
1,000
100
Observed Simulated Oc t-0 0
Oc t-9 9
Oc t-9 8
Oc t-9 7
Oc t-9 6
Oc t-9 5
Oc t-9 4
Oc t-9 3
Oc t-9 2
Oc t-9 1
10 Oc t-9 0
Streamflow (cfs)
10,000
8 Draft, values subject to change,
April 1, 2008
Stream Flow Timeseries, Verification Period, Harriston Streamflow @ Harriston (cfs) Observed Simulated Run SR57
1,000
100
Feb -07
De c-0 6
Oc t-0 6
Au g-0 6
Ju n-0 6
Ap r-0 6
Feb -06
De c-0 5
Oc t-0 5
Au g-0 5
Jun -05
10 Ap r-0 5
Streamflow (cfs)
10,000
9 Draft, values subject to change,
April 1, 2008
Simulated and Observed Flow Duration Curves, Harriston Flow duration curves for observed and simulated daily discharge, calibration period WY 1991-2000, calibrated model run SR57, South River at Waynesboro (01626000) and Harriston (01627500)
10,000 Observed - Harriston Simulated - Harriston Observed - Waynesboro Simulated - Waynesboro Discharge (cfs)
1,000
100
10 0%
20%
40% 60% % Time Exceeded
80%
100%
10 Draft, values subject to change,
April 1, 2008
Simulated and Observed Flows, Harriston Comparison of Observed and Simulated Daily Discharge (cfs), simulation SR57, South River at Harriston (01627500)
100,000
Simulated Discharge (cfs)
10,000 R2 = 0.41 R2 = 0.62
1,000
Calibration Period 100
Verification Period 1:1 line Linear (Calibration Period ) Linear (Verification Period)
10 10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
Observed Discharge (cfs)
11 Draft, values subject to change,
April 1, 2008
Hydrologic Model Calibration Criteria, South River @ Harriston
Runoff Category
Criterion (percent)
Total runoff Highest 10-percent flow Lowest 50-percent flow Winter runoff Spring runoff Summer runoff Fall runoff Total Storm Volume
±10 ±10 ±15 ±15 ±15 ±15 ±15 ±20
Calibration Period October 1, 1990-September 30, 2000 Observed (in) Simulated (in) %Error 185.1 81.5 31.5 63.0 63.6 26.2 32.2 19.0
193.8 87.1 31.4 64.3 66.4 29.6 33.5 17.4
4.7% 6.8% -0.3% 2.1% 4.4% 12.8% 4.1% -8.6%
Verification Period April 1, 2005, March 31, 2007 Observed (in) Simulated (in) %Error 35.3 13.8 7.0 10.8 7.6 4.2 12.7 9.9
34.3 13.0 7.2 10.2 7.8 6.3 10.0 9.4
-2.8% -5.5% 2.1% -5.7% 3.0% 49.9% -21.2% -5.2%
12 Draft, values subject to change,
April 1, 2008
Sediment Model Simulations Linear Regression provides ‘Observed’ suspended sediment concentrations (SSC) ‘Observed’ SSC used for comparison and calibration Regression Model 1: Regression Model 2:
SSC = 4.0 + 41.6(Turbidity) + 1.1(dQ/dt) SSC = -0.8 + 0.08Q + 1.34|Q-Q1hour|
13 Draft, values subject to change,
April 1, 2008
Suspended Sediment Conc (SSC), South R. @Harriston Verification Period SSC (mg/l) at Harriston (01627500), Observed and Simulated Run SR57
1,000
10
1
Observed USGS Samples DEQ Samples Simulated Run SR57
Draft, values subject to change,
April 1, 2008
A07
7 J-0
O06
6 J-0
A06
6 J-0
O05
J-0
5
0 A05
SSC (mg/l)
100
14
SSC Duration Curves South R. @ Harriston
Duration Plot of Simulated and Observed SSC, calibrated model 1991-2000, South River @ Harriston, VA
1000
SSC (mg/L) Bin
Simulated Observed
100
10
1 0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
% Time Exceeded 15 Draft, values subject to change,
April 1, 2008
Sediment Model Calibration Criteria, South River @ Harriston
Criterion (percent ) SSC (mg/L) Sediment Flux (tons)
Calibration Period October 1, 1990-September 30, 2000 Observed Simulated % Error
Verification Period April 1, 2005 - March 31, 2007 Observed Simulated % Error
90 %tile 50 %tile
±30% ±30%
29.4 6.6
30.8 7.8
4.8% 18.5%
24.5 7.6
30.1 6.5
22.6% -15.0%
Total Top 10 % Btm 50%
±10% ±30% ±30%
125,527 113,593 1,003
123,266 113,859 1,110
-1.6% 0.2% 10.6%
29,887 26,287 533
35,138 31,734 489
17.6% 20.7% -8.3%
16 Draft, values subject to change,
April 1, 2008
Up Next – Modeling Mercury Transport
17 Draft, values subject to change,
April 1, 2008
Point Sources HSPF : Hydrologic Model HSPF : Sediment Model
Jack Eggleston
Robert Brent
Point Source Summary
Point Sources in Model Model Facility name, Reach downstream order Stuarts Draft WWTP 1 Loth Spring 2 INVISTA/ former DuPont 2 outfall 001 2 outfall 003 2 outfall 004 2 outfall 008 2 outfall 009 2 outfall 010 2 outfall 011 (after 08/02) 2 outfall 012 2 outfall 013 2 outfall 014 2 Frew Pond, Baker Spring 2 Plant Site GW Discharge Waynesboro WWTP 2 Genicom 3 Alcoa 5
1984-2007 Annualized NPDES River Average Sediment Load Permit Mile Disch. (cfs) (Ton) HG Load (g) VA0066877 38.9 1.686 3.7 1.1 na 25.6 1.760 1.5 6.4 25.0 14 (total) 29 (total) 325 (total) VA0002160 " 4.816 12.4 142.5 VA0002160 " 0.066 0.4 2.9 na " 0.014 0.4 0.5 na " 0.375 4.5 87.1 na " 0.137 1.0 10.1 na " 0.050 2.3 10.2 VA0002160 " 0.011 2.1 44.1 na " 0.001 0.0 0.0 na " 0.003 0.0 0.1 na " 0.003 0.0 0.1 na " 7.911 5.9 25.5 na " 0.501 0.0 1.5 VA0025151 23.5 5.245 38.5 35.4 VA0002402 21.9 0.141 0.0 0.0 VA0001767 4.4 2.845 19.6 46.5 Totals 25.554 90.1 369.9
- Revised from last meeting based on: - Corrected error - Allocation period Draft, values subject to change,
April 1, 2008
April 1, 2005 - March 31, 2007, Annualized Average Disch. Total Sediment Total HG Load (cfs) Load (Ton) (g) 1.671 1.5 1.1 1.756 1.5 6.4 15 (total) 31 (total) 561 (total) 6.523 17.2 402.9 0.066 0.4 2.8 0.014 0.3 0.5 0.374 4.2 89.0 0.111 0.8 8.1 0.040 1.9 8.2 0.002 0.4 21.8 0.000 0.0 0.0 0.007 0.0 0.3 0.005 0.0 0.3 7.025 5.9 25.4 0.501 0.0 1.5 5.497 42.2 37.1 0.196 0.0 0.0 2.486 12.7 40.6 88.6 646.1 26.272
!
!(
Alcoa
Legend
5
X
USGS Monitoring Station (01626920)
!(
01627500, HARRISTON, VA
X
Point Source Discharge Model Stream Reach !
!
!
2
Subwatershed
!
!
!
4
South River Watershed
X ( Genicom 3 01626850, NEAR DOOMS, VA X ! !( Waynesboro STP 01626920, DOOMS, VA
01626000, WAYNESBORO, VA
X
!(
INVISTA - Dupont
2
!
!(
Stuarts Draft STP
1
.
! !
! !
Miles 0
1
2
4
6
8
10
3
Use of Point Source Data in the Model : Daily Point Source Loads
Loads From Other Sources
Water Column THg (ng/L)
Computer Model
Protective Target Daily Values
50
90-d Average
40
Hypothetical Data TMDL Reductions
30 20 10 0 4/1/2005
10/18/2005
5/6/2006
Allocation Period
11/22/2006 4
Hydrologic Response Units in Model : A51165 C51165
Determined by : Land Use County Geography
L eg e n d W ate r Low Inten sity R e side ntial
A51790
H igh Inte nsity R e side ntia l In du strial/Tra nsp ortatio n
26 land use categories 5 county/geography regions = 130 HRUs
Q u arries/M ine s
A51820
Tran sition al D ecidu ou s F o rest E vergre en F o rest M ixed F o rest
A51015
P asture/H ay C rop s U rba n G rasses W oo dy W e tla nd s
B51015
E m e rge nt W etla nd s Contaminated Floodplain
.
A51790 County / La nd-Use / Geography Region 5
2.5
0
5 M ile s
5
Major Hydrologic Processes Simulated in the Model
Precipitation
Interception Evapotranspiration Runoff w Interflo
Groundwater Recharge
Groundwater Discharge
6
Major Sediment Processes Simulated in the Model
7
Stream Flow Timeseries, Calibration Period, Harriston Streamflow (cfs), Run SR57, South River @ Harriston (016275000)
1,000
100
Observed Simulated Oc t-0 0
Oc t-9 9
Oc t-9 8
Oc t-9 7
Oc t-9 6
Oc t-9 5
Oc t-9 4
Oc t-9 3
Oc t-9 2
Oc t-9 1
10 Oc t-9 0
Streamflow (cfs)
10,000
8 Draft, values subject to change,
April 1, 2008
Stream Flow Timeseries, Verification Period, Harriston Streamflow @ Harriston (cfs) Observed Simulated Run SR57
1,000
100
Feb -07
De c-0 6
Oc t-0 6
Au g-0 6
Ju n-0 6
Ap r-0 6
Feb -06
De c-0 5
Oc t-0 5
Au g-0 5
Jun -05
10 Ap r-0 5
Streamflow (cfs)
10,000
9 Draft, values subject to change,
April 1, 2008
Simulated and Observed Flow Duration Curves, Harriston Flow duration curves for observed and simulated daily discharge, calibration period WY 1991-2000, calibrated model run SR57, South River at Waynesboro (01626000) and Harriston (01627500)
10,000 Observed - Harriston Simulated - Harriston Observed - Waynesboro Simulated - Waynesboro Discharge (cfs)
1,000
100
10 0%
20%
40% 60% % Time Exceeded
80%
100%
10 Draft, values subject to change,
April 1, 2008
Simulated and Observed Flows, Harriston Comparison of Observed and Simulated Daily Discharge (cfs), simulation SR57, South River at Harriston (01627500)
100,000
Simulated Discharge (cfs)
10,000 R2 = 0.41 R2 = 0.62
1,000
Calibration Period 100
Verification Period 1:1 line Linear (Calibration Period ) Linear (Verification Period)
10 10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
Observed Discharge (cfs)
11 Draft, values subject to change,
April 1, 2008
Hydrologic Model Calibration Criteria, South River @ Harriston
Runoff Category
Criterion (percent)
Total runoff Highest 10-percent flow Lowest 50-percent flow Winter runoff Spring runoff Summer runoff Fall runoff Total Storm Volume
±10 ±10 ±15 ±15 ±15 ±15 ±15 ±20
Calibration Period October 1, 1990-September 30, 2000 Observed (in) Simulated (in) %Error 185.1 81.5 31.5 63.0 63.6 26.2 32.2 19.0
193.8 87.1 31.4 64.3 66.4 29.6 33.5 17.4
4.7% 6.8% -0.3% 2.1% 4.4% 12.8% 4.1% -8.6%
Verification Period April 1, 2005, March 31, 2007 Observed (in) Simulated (in) %Error 35.3 13.8 7.0 10.8 7.6 4.2 12.7 9.9
34.3 13.0 7.2 10.2 7.8 6.3 10.0 9.4
-2.8% -5.5% 2.1% -5.7% 3.0% 49.9% -21.2% -5.2%
12 Draft, values subject to change,
April 1, 2008
Sediment Model Simulations Linear Regression provides ‘Observed’ suspended sediment concentrations (SSC) ‘Observed’ SSC used for comparison and calibration Regression Model 1: Regression Model 2:
SSC = 4.0 + 41.6(Turbidity) + 1.1(dQ/dt) SSC = -0.8 + 0.08Q + 1.34|Q-Q1hour|
13 Draft, values subject to change,
April 1, 2008
Suspended Sediment Conc (SSC), South R. @Harriston Verification Period SSC (mg/l) at Harriston (01627500), Observed and Simulated Run SR57
1,000
10
1
Observed USGS Samples DEQ Samples Simulated Run SR57
Draft, values subject to change,
April 1, 2008
A07
7 J-0
O06
6 J-0
A06
6 J-0
O05
J-0
5
0 A05
SSC (mg/l)
100
14
SSC Duration Curves South R. @ Harriston
Duration Plot of Simulated and Observed SSC, calibrated model 1991-2000, South River @ Harriston, VA
1000
SSC (mg/L) Bin
Simulated Observed
100
10
1 0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
% Time Exceeded 15 Draft, values subject to change,
April 1, 2008
Sediment Model Calibration Criteria, South River @ Harriston
Criterion (percent ) SSC (mg/L) Sediment Flux (tons)
Calibration Period October 1, 1990-September 30, 2000 Observed Simulated % Error
Verification Period April 1, 2005 - March 31, 2007 Observed Simulated % Error
90 %tile 50 %tile
±30% ±30%
29.4 6.6
30.8 7.8
4.8% 18.5%
24.5 7.6
30.1 6.5
22.6% -15.0%
Total Top 10 % Btm 50%
±10% ±30% ±30%
125,527 113,593 1,003
123,266 113,859 1,110
-1.6% 0.2% 10.6%
29,887 26,287 533
35,138 31,734 489
17.6% 20.7% -8.3%
16 Draft, values subject to change,
April 1, 2008
Up Next – Modeling Mercury Transport
17 Draft, values subject to change,
April 1, 2008
