Srisawad Power 1979 Outperform (15E TP Bt41.00)

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Srisawad Power 1979     Outperform (15E TP Bt41.00) 

Earnings Review 

Close Bt39.00

Financial    May 15, 2015 

Beat forecast/Below forecast/In line  

 

Solid 1Q15 results indicate continued favorable growth   

 

FY15 

FY16 

Consensus EPS (Bt) 

1.210 

1.630 

KT ZMICO vs. consensus    Share data 

‐10.7% 

‐12.9% 

Reuters / Bloomberg 

   

SAWAD.BK/SAWAD TB 

Paid‐up Shares (m) 

1,000.00 

Par (Bt) 

1.00 

Market cap (Bt bn / US$ m) 

39.00/1,166.00 

Foreign limit / actual (%) 

49.00/13.28 

52 week High / Low (Bt) 

42.89/13.14 

Avg. daily T/O (shares 000)  NVDR (%) 

23,446.00  1.13 

Estimated free float (%) 

43.34 

Beta 

1.31 

URL 

www.meebaanmeerod.com 

CGR  

‐ 

Potential earnings catalyst from new businesses  We  maintain  our  Outperform  rating  and  the  15E  target  price  of  Bt41/share.  We  expect  SAWAD’s  profitability  and  ROE  outlook  to  continue outpacing the financial sector in the long term. Moreover, the  potential  inorganic  expansion  could  remain  a  catalyst  to  its  share  price  and post upside risk to its profitability.  1Q15 net profit in line our forecast   SAWAD’s 1Q15 net profit (NP) of Bt278mn (+49% YoY, +4% QoQ) was in  line with our forecast of Bt270mn. The robust results, especially on a YoY  basis,  were backed  mainly  by  its 1)  robust  loan growth of  45%  YoY  and  12%  QoQ  and  non‐interest  income  growth  of  33%  YoY  and  4%  QoQ,  thanks to its aggressive branch expansion to 1,162 branches in 1Q15 (140  new branches in 1Q15). Meanwhile, the modest NP growth QoQ was due  largely to a higher provision and lower NIM QoQ.     Started buying distressed loans in 1Q15  SAWAD bought NPLs with a cost of ~Bt200mn (at ~29% of principal and  interest due or at 64% of principal) from SME bank in 1Q15 and it booked  this  transaction  under  investment  in  receivables.  This  likely  hurt  NIM  slightly in 1Q15 as this business is likely to generate a return around one  year after the purchase of assets. Note that NIM in 1Q15 would stand at  25.5% (instead of 25.2%) if excluding the new investment.    NPL ratio increased slightly QoQ on seasonality   The  NPL  ratio  in  1Q15  increased  slightly  QoQ  to  4.2%  from  4.1%  as  SAWAD  normally  does  not  write‐off  loans  in  1Q.  Note  that  SAWAD  normally writes off loans partly in 2Q and especially in 4Q, which should  ultimately  bring  its  NPL  ratio  down  to  its  estimated  range  of  4‐5%.  Therefore, we may see the NPL ratio in 2Q15 rise slightly QoQ as there  are fewer working days in 2Q due to several long holidays and the impact  of school opening in May. Meanwhile, the reserve‐to‐NPL ratio for 1Q15  was stable both YoY and QoQ at 86%. Its debt‐to‐equity ratio in 1Q15 of  1.7x was also quite stable QoQ, but down YoY from 4.9x before the IPO.       Maintain 2015E earnings forecast  The  1Q15  NP  represents  25%  of  our  FY15  NP  forecast.  Therefore,  we  maintain our earnings forecast.    Financials and Valuation   2013 

2014 

2015E 

2016E 

2017E 

PPOP (Btm) 

707 

1,043 

1,366 

1,797 

2,286 

Net profit (Btm) 

575 

855 

1,106 

1,445 

1,818  1.78 

FY Ended 31 Dec 

EPS (Bt) 

0.77 

0.85 

1.08 

1.42 

EPS growth (%) 

‐33% 

11% 

27% 

31% 

26% 

Book value (Bt) 

1.51 

3.43 

4.45 

5.32 

6.39 

Prapharas Nonthapiboon 

Dividend (Bt) 

0.60 

0.02 

0.54 

0.71 

0.89 

Analyst, no 17836 

FY Ended 31 Dec

2013 

2014 

2015E 

2016E 

2017E  21.88 

[email protected]  66 (0) 2695‐5872   

PER (X) 

50.83 

45.63 

35.97 

27.53 

PBV (X) 

25.87 

11.36 

8.77 

7.33 

6.10 

Dividend yield (%) 

1.54 

0.06 

1.39 

1.82 

2.28 

ROE (%) 

66% 

37% 

28% 

29% 

30% 

REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES                                   page 1 of 4 

Figure 1: 1Q15 earnings results  Statement of comprehensive income (Btmn) Fiscal Year‐Ended Dec.

1Q14

4Q14

1Q15

% YoY

% QoQ

2015E

% YoY

% 1Q to 15E

Interest Income

            429

            553

              607

41%

10%            2,548

30%

24%

Interest Expenses

               60

               49

                 64

5%

30%                 227

4%

28%

Net Interest Income

            369

            504

              544

47%

8%            2,322

34%

23%

Non Interest Income

            156

            200

              208

33%

4%                 915

25%

23%

Operating Income

            525

            704

              751

43%

7%            3,236

31%

23%

Operating Expenses

            252

            346

              357

42%

3%            1,594

31%

22%

Operating Profit Provision expenses (Reversal)

            274

            358

              395

44%

10%            1,642

31%

24%

               48

               24

                 47

‐3%

95%                 260

38%

18%

Taxes

               39

               67

                 70

79%

4%                 276

33%

25%

Net Profit

            186

            267

              278

49%

4%            1,106

29%

25%

PPOP

            235

            291

              325

38%

12%            1,366

31%

24%

EPS (Bt)

           2.49

          2.67

            2.78

12%

4%            10.84

27%

26%

Key Statistics and Ratios (%) Gross NPLs (Btmn)

1Q14

4Q14

1Q15

            273

            323

              370

Gross NPLs/Loans Loan Loss Reserve/NPLs Loan Loss Reserve/Loans Equity/Asset Loan to borrowing ratio Debt to equity ratio (x)

2015E                 433

4.5%

4.1%

4.2%

4.3%

84.5%

84.6%

86.4%

88.3%

3.8%

3.5%

3.6%

3.8%

16.9%

39.9%

36.8%

41.9%

119.9%

164.1%

149.5%

168.0%

              4.9

             1.5

               1.7

                 1.4

Cost to Income

47.9%

49.2%

47.5%

49.3%

Non Interest Income/Total Income

29.8%

28.4%

27.6%

28.3%

Net Interest Margin

25.0%

26.9%

25.2%

25.9%

Loan Growth YoY

47.9%

36.6%

44.8%

28.0%

6.0%

10.1%

12.4%

Loan Growth QoQ Source: KTZMICO Research 

  Figure 2: SAWAD's P/BV band and sensitivity of market prices based on P/BV at different standard deviation levels   (X) 12.0 10.0 8.0

+3.5 S.D. +3.0 S.D. +2.5 S.D. +2.0 S.D. +1.5 S.D. +1.0 S.D. +0.5 S.D.

Avg.

6.0

-0.5 S.D. -1 S.D.

4.0

-1.5 S.D.

-2 S.D.

2.0

 

Source: Bloomberg, KT ZMICO Research 

May-15

Apr-15

Mar-15

Feb-15

Jan-15

Dec-14

Dec-14

Nov-14

Oct-14

Sep-14

Aug-14

Jul-14

Jun-14

Jun-14

May-14

0.0

2015E

PBV (x)

Implied market price

Upside/ Downside to current price

+3.5SD

11.8

(Bt)

(%)

53

+3.0SD

35

11.0

49

26

+2.5SD

10.3

46

17

+2.0SD

9.5

42

8

+1.5SD

8.7

39

-1

+1.0SD

7.9

35

-9

+0.5SD

7.2

32

-18

Average

6.4

28

-27

-0.5SD

5.6

25

-36

-1.0SD

4.8

22

-45

-1.5SD

4.1

18

-54

-2.0SD

3.3

15

-62

 

REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES                                   page 2 of 4 

Figure 3: SAWAD's PER band and sensitivity of market prices based on PER at different standard deviation levels   (X)

Implied market price

Upside/ Downside to current price

(Bt)

(%)

49

26

42.1

46

17

+2.0SD

38.9

42

8

+1.5SD

35.6

39

-1

+1.0SD

32.4

35

-10

+0.5SD

29.1

32

-19

Average

25.9

28

-28

10

-0.5SD

22.6

25

-37

5

-1.0SD

19.4

21

-46

-1.5SD

16.2

18

-55

-2.0SD

12.9

14

-64

50

+1 .5S.D. +1.0S.D. +0.5 S.D. Avg.

25

-0.5 S.D.

20

-1 S.D. -1 .5 S.D.

15

   

Source: Bloomberg, KT ZMICO Research 

May-15

Apr-15

Mar-15

Feb-15

Jan-15

Dec-14

Dec-14

Nov-14

Oct-14

Jun-14

May-14

-2 S.D.

Sep-14

30

+2.5 S.D. +2.0 S.D.

Aug-14

35

PER (x)

+3.0SD

45.4

+2.5SD

+3.0 S.D.

Jul-14

40

Jun-14

45

2015E

 

     

                                                                REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES                                   page 3 of 4 

                                          DISCLAIMER  This  document  is  produced  using  open  sources  believed  to  be  reliable.  However,  their  accuracy  and  completeness  cannot be guaranteed. The statements and opinions herein were formed after due and careful consideration for use as  information for the purposes of investment. The opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. This  document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. The  use of any information contained in this document shall be at the sole discretion and risk of the user. 

  KT ZMICO RESEARCH – RECOMMENDATION DEFINITIONS  STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS  BUY:  Expecting  positive  total  returns  of  15%  or  more    over the next 12 months        OUTPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10%  to  +15%;  returns  expected  to  exceed  market  return    over six months period because of specific catalysts       UNDERPERFORM:  Expecting  total  returns  between    ‐10%  to  +15%;  returns  expected  to  below  market  return  over  six  months  period  because  of  specific  catalysts     SELL: Expecting negative total returns of 10% or more  over the next 12 months 

 

SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS    OVERWEIGHT:  The industry, as defined by the analyst's    coverage  universe,  is  expected  to  outperform  the    relevant  primary  market  index  by  at  least  10%  over  the  next 12 months.        NEUTRAL:    The  industry,  as  defined  by  the  analyst's  coverage  universe,  is  expected  to  perform  in  line  with  the  relevant  primary  market  index  over  the  next  12  months.    UNDERWEIGHT:    The  industry,  as  defined  by  the  analyst's coverage universe, is expected to underperform  the relevant primary market index by 10% over the next  12 months. 

 

REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES                                   page 4 of 4 

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624/9 Changphuek Road, . Naimaung, A.Maung, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000 Telephone: (044) 247222 Fax: (044) 247171 Information herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its completeness and accuracy are not guaranteed. All opinions expressed constitute our views on that date and are not intended as an offer or solicitation to sell or buy any securities. Investors should exercise care when making a decision to invest in securities. No one may modify or distribute any part of this report unless written permission is first received from Seamico Securities Plc. If any modifications are made, quotes or references taken from the report and the report date must be clearly mentioned and must not cause misunderstanding or damage to the company.