Srisawad Power 1979 Outperform (15E TP Bt41.00)
Earnings Review
Close Bt39.00
Financial May 15, 2015
Beat forecast/Below forecast/In line
Solid 1Q15 results indicate continued favorable growth
FY15
FY16
Consensus EPS (Bt)
1.210
1.630
KT ZMICO vs. consensus Share data
‐10.7%
‐12.9%
Reuters / Bloomberg
SAWAD.BK/SAWAD TB
Paid‐up Shares (m)
1,000.00
Par (Bt)
1.00
Market cap (Bt bn / US$ m)
39.00/1,166.00
Foreign limit / actual (%)
49.00/13.28
52 week High / Low (Bt)
42.89/13.14
Avg. daily T/O (shares 000) NVDR (%)
23,446.00 1.13
Estimated free float (%)
43.34
Beta
1.31
URL
www.meebaanmeerod.com
CGR
‐
Potential earnings catalyst from new businesses We maintain our Outperform rating and the 15E target price of Bt41/share. We expect SAWAD’s profitability and ROE outlook to continue outpacing the financial sector in the long term. Moreover, the potential inorganic expansion could remain a catalyst to its share price and post upside risk to its profitability. 1Q15 net profit in line our forecast SAWAD’s 1Q15 net profit (NP) of Bt278mn (+49% YoY, +4% QoQ) was in line with our forecast of Bt270mn. The robust results, especially on a YoY basis, were backed mainly by its 1) robust loan growth of 45% YoY and 12% QoQ and non‐interest income growth of 33% YoY and 4% QoQ, thanks to its aggressive branch expansion to 1,162 branches in 1Q15 (140 new branches in 1Q15). Meanwhile, the modest NP growth QoQ was due largely to a higher provision and lower NIM QoQ. Started buying distressed loans in 1Q15 SAWAD bought NPLs with a cost of ~Bt200mn (at ~29% of principal and interest due or at 64% of principal) from SME bank in 1Q15 and it booked this transaction under investment in receivables. This likely hurt NIM slightly in 1Q15 as this business is likely to generate a return around one year after the purchase of assets. Note that NIM in 1Q15 would stand at 25.5% (instead of 25.2%) if excluding the new investment. NPL ratio increased slightly QoQ on seasonality The NPL ratio in 1Q15 increased slightly QoQ to 4.2% from 4.1% as SAWAD normally does not write‐off loans in 1Q. Note that SAWAD normally writes off loans partly in 2Q and especially in 4Q, which should ultimately bring its NPL ratio down to its estimated range of 4‐5%. Therefore, we may see the NPL ratio in 2Q15 rise slightly QoQ as there are fewer working days in 2Q due to several long holidays and the impact of school opening in May. Meanwhile, the reserve‐to‐NPL ratio for 1Q15 was stable both YoY and QoQ at 86%. Its debt‐to‐equity ratio in 1Q15 of 1.7x was also quite stable QoQ, but down YoY from 4.9x before the IPO. Maintain 2015E earnings forecast The 1Q15 NP represents 25% of our FY15 NP forecast. Therefore, we maintain our earnings forecast. Financials and Valuation 2013
2014
2015E
2016E
2017E
PPOP (Btm)
707
1,043
1,366
1,797
2,286
Net profit (Btm)
575
855
1,106
1,445
1,818 1.78
FY Ended 31 Dec
EPS (Bt)
0.77
0.85
1.08
1.42
EPS growth (%)
‐33%
11%
27%
31%
26%
Book value (Bt)
1.51
3.43
4.45
5.32
6.39
Prapharas Nonthapiboon
Dividend (Bt)
0.60
0.02
0.54
0.71
0.89
Analyst, no 17836
FY Ended 31 Dec
2013
2014
2015E
2016E
2017E 21.88
[email protected] 66 (0) 2695‐5872
PER (X)
50.83
45.63
35.97
27.53
PBV (X)
25.87
11.36
8.77
7.33
6.10
Dividend yield (%)
1.54
0.06
1.39
1.82
2.28
ROE (%)
66%
37%
28%
29%
30%
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 1 of 4
Figure 1: 1Q15 earnings results Statement of comprehensive income (Btmn) Fiscal Year‐Ended Dec.
1Q14
4Q14
1Q15
% YoY
% QoQ
2015E
% YoY
% 1Q to 15E
Interest Income
429
553
607
41%
10% 2,548
30%
24%
Interest Expenses
60
49
64
5%
30% 227
4%
28%
Net Interest Income
369
504
544
47%
8% 2,322
34%
23%
Non Interest Income
156
200
208
33%
4% 915
25%
23%
Operating Income
525
704
751
43%
7% 3,236
31%
23%
Operating Expenses
252
346
357
42%
3% 1,594
31%
22%
Operating Profit Provision expenses (Reversal)
274
358
395
44%
10% 1,642
31%
24%
48
24
47
‐3%
95% 260
38%
18%
Taxes
39
67
70
79%
4% 276
33%
25%
Net Profit
186
267
278
49%
4% 1,106
29%
25%
PPOP
235
291
325
38%
12% 1,366
31%
24%
EPS (Bt)
2.49
2.67
2.78
12%
4% 10.84
27%
26%
Key Statistics and Ratios (%) Gross NPLs (Btmn)
1Q14
4Q14
1Q15
273
323
370
Gross NPLs/Loans Loan Loss Reserve/NPLs Loan Loss Reserve/Loans Equity/Asset Loan to borrowing ratio Debt to equity ratio (x)
2015E 433
4.5%
4.1%
4.2%
4.3%
84.5%
84.6%
86.4%
88.3%
3.8%
3.5%
3.6%
3.8%
16.9%
39.9%
36.8%
41.9%
119.9%
164.1%
149.5%
168.0%
4.9
1.5
1.7
1.4
Cost to Income
47.9%
49.2%
47.5%
49.3%
Non Interest Income/Total Income
29.8%
28.4%
27.6%
28.3%
Net Interest Margin
25.0%
26.9%
25.2%
25.9%
Loan Growth YoY
47.9%
36.6%
44.8%
28.0%
6.0%
10.1%
12.4%
Loan Growth QoQ Source: KTZMICO Research
Figure 2: SAWAD's P/BV band and sensitivity of market prices based on P/BV at different standard deviation levels (X) 12.0 10.0 8.0
+3.5 S.D. +3.0 S.D. +2.5 S.D. +2.0 S.D. +1.5 S.D. +1.0 S.D. +0.5 S.D.
Avg.
6.0
-0.5 S.D. -1 S.D.
4.0
-1.5 S.D.
-2 S.D.
2.0
Source: Bloomberg, KT ZMICO Research
May-15
Apr-15
Mar-15
Feb-15
Jan-15
Dec-14
Dec-14
Nov-14
Oct-14
Sep-14
Aug-14
Jul-14
Jun-14
Jun-14
May-14
0.0
2015E
PBV (x)
Implied market price
Upside/ Downside to current price
+3.5SD
11.8
(Bt)
(%)
53
+3.0SD
35
11.0
49
26
+2.5SD
10.3
46
17
+2.0SD
9.5
42
8
+1.5SD
8.7
39
-1
+1.0SD
7.9
35
-9
+0.5SD
7.2
32
-18
Average
6.4
28
-27
-0.5SD
5.6
25
-36
-1.0SD
4.8
22
-45
-1.5SD
4.1
18
-54
-2.0SD
3.3
15
-62
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 2 of 4
Figure 3: SAWAD's PER band and sensitivity of market prices based on PER at different standard deviation levels (X)
Implied market price
Upside/ Downside to current price
(Bt)
(%)
49
26
42.1
46
17
+2.0SD
38.9
42
8
+1.5SD
35.6
39
-1
+1.0SD
32.4
35
-10
+0.5SD
29.1
32
-19
Average
25.9
28
-28
10
-0.5SD
22.6
25
-37
5
-1.0SD
19.4
21
-46
-1.5SD
16.2
18
-55
-2.0SD
12.9
14
-64
50
+1 .5S.D. +1.0S.D. +0.5 S.D. Avg.
25
-0.5 S.D.
20
-1 S.D. -1 .5 S.D.
15
Source: Bloomberg, KT ZMICO Research
May-15
Apr-15
Mar-15
Feb-15
Jan-15
Dec-14
Dec-14
Nov-14
Oct-14
Jun-14
May-14
-2 S.D.
Sep-14
30
+2.5 S.D. +2.0 S.D.
Aug-14
35
PER (x)
+3.0SD
45.4
+2.5SD
+3.0 S.D.
Jul-14
40
Jun-14
45
2015E
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 3 of 4
DISCLAIMER This document is produced using open sources believed to be reliable. However, their accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. The statements and opinions herein were formed after due and careful consideration for use as information for the purposes of investment. The opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. This document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. The use of any information contained in this document shall be at the sole discretion and risk of the user.
KT ZMICO RESEARCH – RECOMMENDATION DEFINITIONS STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS BUY: Expecting positive total returns of 15% or more over the next 12 months OUTPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to exceed market return over six months period because of specific catalysts UNDERPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to below market return over six months period because of specific catalysts SELL: Expecting negative total returns of 10% or more over the next 12 months
SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS OVERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to outperform the relevant primary market index by at least 10% over the next 12 months. NEUTRAL: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to perform in line with the relevant primary market index over the next 12 months. UNDERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to underperform the relevant primary market index by 10% over the next 12 months.
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 4 of 4
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KT•ZMICO Securities Company Limited
st
8 , 15 -17 , 19 , 21 Floor, Liberty Square Bldg., 287 Silom Road, Bangrak, Bangkok 10500 Telephone: (66-2) 695-5000
Phaholyothin Branch
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Fax. (66-2) 631-1709
Ploenchit Branch
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2
Sindhorn Branch
3 Floor, Shinnawatra Tower II,
8 Floor, Ton Son Tower,
1291/1 Phaholyothin Road,
900 Ploenchit Road, Lumpini,
Floor, Sindhorn Tower 1, 130-132 Wireless Road, Lumpini,
Phayathai, Bangkok 10400
Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330
Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330
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Phitsanulok Branch
G Floor, Lao Peng Nguan 1 Bldg.,
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114 Singhawat Road,
Ladyao, Jatujak, Bangkok 10900
Muang, Phitsanulok 65000
Telephone: (66-2) 618-8500
Telephone: 083-490-2873
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Chonburi Branch
Pattaya Branch
108/34-36 Mahajakkrapad Road,
4 Floor, Forum Plaza Bldg.,
382/6-8 Moo 9, T. NongPrue,
T.Namuang, A.Muang,
870/52 Sukhumvit Road, T. Bangplasoy,
A. Banglamung, Cholburi 20260
Chachoengsao 24000
A. Muang, Cholburi 20000
Telephone: (038) 362-420-9
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Telephone: (038) 287-635
Fax. (038) 362-430
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Khon Kaen Branch
5th Floor, Charoen Thani Princess Hotel,
Hat Yai Branch
Sriworajak Building Branch
200/301 Juldis Hatyai Plaza Floor 3,
1st – 2nd Floor, Sriworajak Building, 222
260 Srichan Road, T. Naimuang,
Niphat-Uthit 3 Rd,
Luang Road, Pomprab,
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Bankgok 10100
Telephone: (043) 389-171-193
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Chiang Mai Branch
Phuket Branch
999/9 The Offices at Central World,
422/49 Changklan Road, Changklan
22/61-63, Luang Por Wat Chalong Road,
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Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang,
Talat Yai, Mueang Phuket,
Bangkok 10330
Chiang Mai 50100
Phuket 83000
Telephone: (66-2) 673-5000,
Telephone: (053) 270-072
Tel. (076) 222-811,(076) 222-683
(66-2) 264-5888 Fax. (66-2) 264-5899
Fax: (053) 272-618
Fax. (076) 222-861
Pak Chong Branch
Cyber Branch @ North Nana
173 175, Mittapap Road,
Krung Thai Bank PCL, 2 Floor, North Nana Branch 35 Sukhumvit Rd.,Klong Toey Nua Subdistrict , Wattana District, Bangkok 10110 Telephone: 083-490-2871
Nong Sarai, Pak Chong, Nakhon Ratchasima 30130 Tel. (044) 279-511 Fax. (044) 279-574
Nakhon Ratchasima Branch
Bangkhae Branch
6th Floor The Mall Group Building Bangkhae 275 Moo 1 Petchkasem Road, North Bangkhae, Bangkhae, Bangkok 10160 Tel. (66-2) 454-9979 Fax. (66-2) 454-9970
624/9 Changphuek Road, . Naimaung, A.Maung, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000 Telephone: (044) 247222 Fax: (044) 247171 Information herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its completeness and accuracy are not guaranteed. All opinions expressed constitute our views on that date and are not intended as an offer or solicitation to sell or buy any securities. Investors should exercise care when making a decision to invest in securities. No one may modify or distribute any part of this report unless written permission is first received from Seamico Securities Plc. If any modifications are made, quotes or references taken from the report and the report date must be clearly mentioned and must not cause misunderstanding or damage to the company.