SSC Report to NEFMC: Scallops, Groundfish & Skates
SSC Report to NEFMC: Scallops, Groundfish (GOM Cod) Hyannis, MA September 30, 2014 Jason McNamee, SSC
Scallop TORs • Review and discuss results from the recent scallop benchmark assessment (SARC59) as they relate to new biological reference points • Provide the Council with OFL and ABC recommendations for fishing years 2015 and 2016 (default)
SSC Comments/Discussion • SSC received a detailed overview of SARC59 outcomes, and a summary of recent survey results (occurred after assessment), fulfilling TOR1 • SSC raised concerns about the potential to overestimate biomass in light of retrospective patterns observed and poor survey fit in recent years • However, current SSB is estimated to be more than 36,000mt, 37% above BMSY, therefore resource status is strong despite uncertainties • SSC concluded that additional precaution beyond that incorporated into the current control rule is not warranted • SSC recommends OFLs emerging from the assessment and the ABCs calculated by the PDT using the default control rule
Catch Advice •
OFL: – 2015 = 39,127mt • Prev OFL 30,419mt – 2016 = 48,489mt • Prev 34,247mt
•
ABC: – 2015 = 32,119mt • Prev ABC 26,240mt – 2016 = 39,836mt • Prev ABC 29,683mt
•
Note: values likely to change slightly, PDT will correct an error detected recently
•
SSC is comfortable with adjustments being made without further review, advised that the changes are minor
Incidental Mortality • A previous point of concern raised by the SSC and others was incidental mortality • SSC suggested that research and estimates of incidental mortality should be guided by sensitivity analyses. Attention should be paid to changes in estimates since prev studies, due to evolution of fishing gear, as well as sizeand substrate-specific rates • Lead scientist for the assessment performed sensitivity analyses for SARC59 – showed modest effects of changes in incidental mortality rates
• In addition to sensitivity analysis, 3 separate studies underway to develop updated empirical estimates • SSC wishes to commend the assessment team on addressing this recommendation
Groundfish (GOM Cod) TOR • Review the 2014 assessment update for Gulf of Maine (GOM) cod and the work of the Groundfish Plan Development Team (PDT) and provide the OFL and ABC for each year for fishing years 2015-2017 that will prevent overfishing, provide for rebuilding and is consistent with the default control rule
SSC Comments/Discussion • The 2014 operational assessment of GOM cod used two formulations of ASAP model (approved during SAW/SARC 55): static M=0.2, M increases linearly from 0.2 to 0.4 (“M-ramp”) • PDT developed three sets of catch alternatives using each formulation
– i.e. one from static M model, and – two scenarios for M-ramp model: M remains at 0.4 and M declines back to 0.2.
• SSC recommends an OFL for 2015 that averaged the three scenarios (514 mt) – all three scenarios are plausible and the resulting OFL values are comparable
• SSC is concerned with uncertainties inherent in projections of GOM cod and does not recommend changing the OFL for 2016 and 2017 in absence of new information warranting a change.
SSC Comments/Discussion • Among alternatives, constant catch ABC alternative that was intermediate between the model scenarios was chosen as a provisional ABC (200 mt) – follows similar logic as that used in developing the OFL recommendation
• ABCs for 2016 and 2017 would remain consistent in the absence of additional information warranting a change • The SSC offers a provisional ABC because the ABC alternative offered does not include values based on the scenario in which M ramps up to 0.4 and remains at that rate
– Projections from this scenario suggest the stock cannot rebuild to the biomass target within 10 years even with F=0 – Model suggests stock cannot rebuild unless natural morality switches back to 0.2 by 2016, but whether and why that would occur is uncertain – An additional concern was the stock might not be able to recover within 10 years under the other M=0.2 scenarios given that projections tend towards larger increases than observed
SSC Comments/Discussion • ABC control rule addresses the possibility of rebuilding that cannot be achieved within 10 years with the following approach: – c. For stocks that cannot rebuild to BMSY in the specified rebuilding period, even with no fishing, the ABC should be based on incidental bycatch, including a reduction in bycatch rate (i.e., the proportion of the stock caught as bycatch).
• Therefore, SSC requests estimates of incidental, non-target bycatch of GOM cod under the prevailing operating conditions of the fishery • SSC would like to see these estimates to determine whether finetuning of the ABC is warranted to account for this third mortality scenario and accommodate operations of the fleet
SSC Comments/Discussion •
OFL would not change in light of these requested analyses and sets an upper bound for the final ABC
•
Furthermore, SSC might not make adjustments to the ABC if the requested analyses are not accomplished
•
In requesting additional analyses on unavoidable, non-target bycatch, SSC is not endorsing a strategy for keeping catch within that limit
•
SSC did discuss potential spatial management strategies, but did not strive to reach consensus on whether/how spatial (or other) approaches should be used
•
SSC is interested in continuing discussion to develop advice on spatial and other strategies for achieving the catch reductions
•
SSC also requested the Groundfish and Recreational APs provide input on the level of incidental, nontarget bycatch by the fleet, as well as the reductions in catch that can be achieved via new fishing strategies
•
SSC also recognizes that an operational assessment is scheduled for 2015, it is anticipated that OFLs and ABCs for 2016 and 2017 will be updated as a result
SSC Comments/Discussion • Due to continued poor status of GOM cod and uncertainties concerning nature and implications of environmental conditions, the SSC reiterates the following recommendations:
– Re-evaluate stock structure of cod given the pronounced contraction of the stock distribution and strong spatial patterns in catch – Define criteria for identifying regime shifts, determine whether those changes have occurred, and develop scientific and management responses to these changes to better determine whether potential changes to mortality or other life history traits are likely to be ephemeral or not. This has important implications for estimating reference points going forward
Catch Advice •
OFL: – 2015 - 2017 = 514 mt • Prev 2015 OFL 2,639 mt
•
ABC (provisional): – 2015 - 2017 = 200 mt • Prev 2015 ABC 1,550 mt
• SSC requested estimates of incidental, non-target bycatch of GOM cod under prevailing operating conditions and may adjust ABC within the upper bound of 514mt set by the OFL
Questions?
Scallop TORs • Review and discuss results from the recent scallop benchmark assessment (SARC59) as they relate to new biological reference points • Provide the Council with OFL and ABC recommendations for fishing years 2015 and 2016 (default)
SSC Comments/Discussion • SSC received a detailed overview of SARC59 outcomes, and a summary of recent survey results (occurred after assessment), fulfilling TOR1 • SSC raised concerns about the potential to overestimate biomass in light of retrospective patterns observed and poor survey fit in recent years • However, current SSB is estimated to be more than 36,000mt, 37% above BMSY, therefore resource status is strong despite uncertainties • SSC concluded that additional precaution beyond that incorporated into the current control rule is not warranted • SSC recommends OFLs emerging from the assessment and the ABCs calculated by the PDT using the default control rule
Catch Advice •
OFL: – 2015 = 39,127mt • Prev OFL 30,419mt – 2016 = 48,489mt • Prev 34,247mt
•
ABC: – 2015 = 32,119mt • Prev ABC 26,240mt – 2016 = 39,836mt • Prev ABC 29,683mt
•
Note: values likely to change slightly, PDT will correct an error detected recently
•
SSC is comfortable with adjustments being made without further review, advised that the changes are minor
Incidental Mortality • A previous point of concern raised by the SSC and others was incidental mortality • SSC suggested that research and estimates of incidental mortality should be guided by sensitivity analyses. Attention should be paid to changes in estimates since prev studies, due to evolution of fishing gear, as well as sizeand substrate-specific rates • Lead scientist for the assessment performed sensitivity analyses for SARC59 – showed modest effects of changes in incidental mortality rates
• In addition to sensitivity analysis, 3 separate studies underway to develop updated empirical estimates • SSC wishes to commend the assessment team on addressing this recommendation
Groundfish (GOM Cod) TOR • Review the 2014 assessment update for Gulf of Maine (GOM) cod and the work of the Groundfish Plan Development Team (PDT) and provide the OFL and ABC for each year for fishing years 2015-2017 that will prevent overfishing, provide for rebuilding and is consistent with the default control rule
SSC Comments/Discussion • The 2014 operational assessment of GOM cod used two formulations of ASAP model (approved during SAW/SARC 55): static M=0.2, M increases linearly from 0.2 to 0.4 (“M-ramp”) • PDT developed three sets of catch alternatives using each formulation
– i.e. one from static M model, and – two scenarios for M-ramp model: M remains at 0.4 and M declines back to 0.2.
• SSC recommends an OFL for 2015 that averaged the three scenarios (514 mt) – all three scenarios are plausible and the resulting OFL values are comparable
• SSC is concerned with uncertainties inherent in projections of GOM cod and does not recommend changing the OFL for 2016 and 2017 in absence of new information warranting a change.
SSC Comments/Discussion • Among alternatives, constant catch ABC alternative that was intermediate between the model scenarios was chosen as a provisional ABC (200 mt) – follows similar logic as that used in developing the OFL recommendation
• ABCs for 2016 and 2017 would remain consistent in the absence of additional information warranting a change • The SSC offers a provisional ABC because the ABC alternative offered does not include values based on the scenario in which M ramps up to 0.4 and remains at that rate
– Projections from this scenario suggest the stock cannot rebuild to the biomass target within 10 years even with F=0 – Model suggests stock cannot rebuild unless natural morality switches back to 0.2 by 2016, but whether and why that would occur is uncertain – An additional concern was the stock might not be able to recover within 10 years under the other M=0.2 scenarios given that projections tend towards larger increases than observed
SSC Comments/Discussion • ABC control rule addresses the possibility of rebuilding that cannot be achieved within 10 years with the following approach: – c. For stocks that cannot rebuild to BMSY in the specified rebuilding period, even with no fishing, the ABC should be based on incidental bycatch, including a reduction in bycatch rate (i.e., the proportion of the stock caught as bycatch).
• Therefore, SSC requests estimates of incidental, non-target bycatch of GOM cod under the prevailing operating conditions of the fishery • SSC would like to see these estimates to determine whether finetuning of the ABC is warranted to account for this third mortality scenario and accommodate operations of the fleet
SSC Comments/Discussion •
OFL would not change in light of these requested analyses and sets an upper bound for the final ABC
•
Furthermore, SSC might not make adjustments to the ABC if the requested analyses are not accomplished
•
In requesting additional analyses on unavoidable, non-target bycatch, SSC is not endorsing a strategy for keeping catch within that limit
•
SSC did discuss potential spatial management strategies, but did not strive to reach consensus on whether/how spatial (or other) approaches should be used
•
SSC is interested in continuing discussion to develop advice on spatial and other strategies for achieving the catch reductions
•
SSC also requested the Groundfish and Recreational APs provide input on the level of incidental, nontarget bycatch by the fleet, as well as the reductions in catch that can be achieved via new fishing strategies
•
SSC also recognizes that an operational assessment is scheduled for 2015, it is anticipated that OFLs and ABCs for 2016 and 2017 will be updated as a result
SSC Comments/Discussion • Due to continued poor status of GOM cod and uncertainties concerning nature and implications of environmental conditions, the SSC reiterates the following recommendations:
– Re-evaluate stock structure of cod given the pronounced contraction of the stock distribution and strong spatial patterns in catch – Define criteria for identifying regime shifts, determine whether those changes have occurred, and develop scientific and management responses to these changes to better determine whether potential changes to mortality or other life history traits are likely to be ephemeral or not. This has important implications for estimating reference points going forward
Catch Advice •
OFL: – 2015 - 2017 = 514 mt • Prev 2015 OFL 2,639 mt
•
ABC (provisional): – 2015 - 2017 = 200 mt • Prev 2015 ABC 1,550 mt
• SSC requested estimates of incidental, non-target bycatch of GOM cod under prevailing operating conditions and may adjust ABC within the upper bound of 514mt set by the OFL
Questions?
