SSC Report to NEFMC: Scallops, Groundfish & Skates
12. SSC (December 5-7, 2017)
SSC Report to NEFMC
Newport, RI December 6, 2017 Jason McNamee, SSC Chair
#1
Topics • Scallop OFLs & ABCs 2018-2019 • Whiting + Red hake OFLs & ABCs 2018-2020 • Groundfish OFLs & ABCs 2018-2020
Scallops
Scallops: Growth • Growth still slow relative to other areas in NLS • Projected growth underperformed slightly but still better assumption than normal growth assumption
Scallops: Growth • Growth slow relative to other areas in ET • Projected growth higher than that seen in 2017
Scallops: Biomass estimates
Scallops: Summary • The SSC agreed with the modifications made to the update assessment as defined and explained by the PDT • OFL for sea scallops is 72,055 mt in 2018 and 69,633 mt in 2019 (default) • ABC for sea scallops should not exceed 59,968 mt in 2018 and 58,126 mt in 2019 (default)
Scallops: Summary • SSC recommends that the PDT continue to investigate alternate weighting scenarios for combining the three surveys used in the analysis • Good opportunity to do this during 2018 benchmark stock assessment • Examination could include geostatistical methods and dredge efficiency • SSC supports continuing investigation into varying growth rates • Investigation could be implemented as standard procedure for annual update
Whiting and Red Hake
Silver Hake: Survey trends and F
Northern
Southern
Red Hake: Survey trends and F Northern
Southern
Whiting and Red Hake: Summary • OFL for 2018 - 2020: • Northern silver hake = 58,350 mt • Southern silver hake = 31,180 mt • Northern red hake = 840 mt • Southern red hake = 1,150 mt • ABC for 2018 – 2020 not to exceed: • Northern silver hake = 31,030 mt • Southern silver hake = 19,395 • Northern red hake = 721 mt • Southern red hake = 1,060 mt • Recommend re-evaluating and updating reference points at next opportunity
Whiting and Red Hake: Summary • New analytical assessment techniques should be investigated at a benchmark • SSC recommends new ABC control rules be developed for these stocks to promote rebuilding (Southern red rake) • Comment in response to PDT recommendation on P* values • Revisit use of 3- year average in stock status determination • SSC recommends revisiting these stocks again to avoid stock status declining to the point of needing to enter in to a rebuilding plan • Due to Southern red hake
Groundfish
Groundfish: General issues • Operational assessment process: • Commend all participants for efforts to complete tasks in a focused and efficient manner • Issue with regard to documenting the use and review of catchability research • Was reviewed/discussed at workshop but did not show up in SSC documents • Recommend re-evaluating SSC control rules • Constant catch being used routinely • Empirical approaches create challenges • Recommend letting significant change working group work on strawman approach
Groundfish: General issues • Retrospective patterns: • SSC recommends that a thorough reexamination of appropriate scientific/management responses to retrospective patterns is warranted • Cross stock risk: • SSC recommends finding a good way to formally provide information on indirect risks of catch advice to external stocks
Groundfish: GB and GOM Winter Flounder • First stock where survey catchability (q) research arose as a discussion item • For GOM winter flounder, the notion of applying new q to all surveys was questioned, should be investigated further • Disagreement on whether the catchability information impacted catch advice deliberations • SSC discussed numerous approaches for developing catch advice • Consensus reached to adopt PDT option for both stocks using constant ABC for the three years of the specification setting period to account for scientific uncertainty
Groundfish: SNE/MA Winter Flounder • Optimistic projections for this stock driven by apparent overestimation of recruitment • Additionally, domed shaped selectivity creating an abundance of “cryptic biomass” • Decision was to use model output and PDT option as initial basis for catch advice, but to account for scientific uncertainties (above) and poor stock status, SSC based ABC on average of recent 3 years of catch and keeping catch advice constant • Additional recommendation was to better account for changes in productivity by investigating subsetting recruitment from periods of lower productivity when doing projections
Groundfish: CC/GOM Yellowtail • q research discussed again but decided to use the PDT constant ABC option • Rationale for applying a different approach in setting catch advice for CC/GoM yellowtail as compared to SNE/MA yellowtail (stay tuned) was: • projections performing better for this stock • positive signals from assessment (increased biomass and strong recruitment signal) • SSC discussed use of ensemble of models for setting catch advice • Attributes to both the analytical and empirical approach • May be value in investigating the use of an ensemble of information for setting catch advice in the future • Can address multiple sources of uncertainty simultaneously
Groundfish: Northern and Southern Windowpane • Adopted Peer Review advice and PDT option • Now information available for an area swept biomass approach, recommend that this be investigated for future windowpane assessments
Groundfish: Atlantic Wolfish • Adopted Peer Review advice and PDT option • SSC discussed the need to develop a new harvest control rule for this stock • Setting ABC much higher than recent catch seemed counterintuitive • Would be worthwhile to revisit the need for catch advice for a stock that has a harvest prohibition on it
Groundfish: American Plaice • Adopted Peer Review advice and PDT option • Discussion on improving the analysis for plaice given new age information • SSC noted data conflicts in information (different inshore and offshore trends), however, given good stock status, SSC comfortable with 75%FMSY projection recommendation • Economic considerations discussed, but given that there was no quantified info provided, SSC requested developing techniques to bring economic info into process in future
Groundfish: Witch Flounder • Discussion on ability to determine OFL; SSC continues to state that we do not have a good approach for determining OFL • SSC was informed that Council is seeking guidance on how to address the unknown OFL situation from NOAA; Council will provide guidance once received • Adopted Peer Review advice and PDT option • Justification were: • Recent, strong year class that will allow for rebuilding • Signal corroborated by other sources of information external to assessment • Per info provided and public comment, further restrictions in catch would increase the risk of constraining catch and negative economic consequences on other stocks
Groundfish: GOM Cod • Ensemble approach using multiple model inference was used to set catch advice • SSC dropped one of the three models considered in the past • Mramp model that drops to M=0.2 not considered biologically reasonable • Rho adjustment was not used in this case for the M=0.2 model. Justified by: • Examination of the CVs (very precise) • Not recommend by reviewers • Inclusion would have had little impact on the catch advice • Ensemble approach accounts for scientific uncertainty
Groundfish: GB Cod • Adopted Peer Review advice and PDT option • SSC discussion focused on “PlanBsmooth”, recommend: • Approach be simulation tested to answer questions about stability • Control rule options be investigated for this technique
Groundfish: Pollock • Adopted Peer Review advice and PDT option (constant catch) • Stock status is good so justification for constant catch approach is “cryptic biomass” that is accumulating for this species • Outcome of catch advice is sensitive to this feature • Constant catch approach warranted to account for this scientific uncertainty
Groundfish: SNE/MA Yellowtail • This stock was an extremely difficult deliberation for the SSC • Advice was rendered in October (rejected analytical assessment, peer review advice, and PDT options for catch advice) choosing to use “PlanBsmooth” for setting catch advice • q discussion was a major factor in the above decision • Subsequent to the meeting, “PlanBsmooth” method developed during October meeting was reviewed and found to be inconsistent • Re-deliberated on a conference call November 27, 2017
Groundfish: SNE/MA Yellowtail • Corrected calculation of “PlanBsmooth” changed catch advice significantly • SSC members noted that the stock was in poor condition given the indicators examined by the SSC, and conservative management is warranted • Despite this , some SSC members cited lack of confidence in analytical assessment given the results of the assessment in the context of the q research • After a vigorous discussion with multiple proposals being made, the SSC reached the following recommendations: • The majority of the SSC recommends averaging model based PDT recommendation with the corrected “PlanBsmooth” output • Model averaging recommended to account for the scientific uncertainty associated with the two divergent model outputs
Groundfish: SNE/MA Yellowtail • Despite a concerted effort to reach consensus, there is a minority opinion from the SSC • This opinion was to offer a range of catch advice based on the two proposals offered rather than the average as recommended by the majority of the SSC • Results in an OFL with a range from 134 – 45 mt and an ABC in the range of 100 – 35 mt • Recommended to highlight the range of uncertainty that SSC was contending with • Both recommendations are higher than what the analytical model suggests as being appropriate in the first year of the specification, but the majority recommendation becomes lower in subsequent years • Adequately accounts for continued poor stock status • Large reduction from previous advice
Groundfish: ABCs and OFLs Stock GB cod GOM cod GB Haddock GOM Haddock GB Yellowtail Flounder SNE/MA Yellowtail Flounder CC/GOM Yellowtail Flounder American Plaice Witch Flounder GB Winter Flounder GOM Winter Flounder SNE/MA Winter Flounder Acadian Redfish White Hake Pollock Northern Windowpane Flounder Southern Windowpane Flounder Ocean Pout Atlantic Halibut- 2015 SSC Wolffish
OFL 2018 3,047 938 94,274 16,954
ABC 2018 2,285 703 73,114 13,131
OFL 2019 3,047 938 99,757 16,038
ABC 2019 2,285 703 73,114 12,490
OFL 2020 3,047 938 100,825 13,020
ABC 2020 2,285 703 73,114 10,186
unknown
300
unknown
300
-
-
90 662 2,260
68 511 1,732
90 736 2,099
68 511 1,609
90 848 1,945
68 511 1,492
unknown
993
unknown
993
unknown
993
1,083 596 1,228 15,451 3,885 51,680 122 631 169 210 120
855 447 727 11,552 2,971 40,172 92 473 127 158 90
1,182 596 1,228 15,640 3,898 53,940 122 631 169
855 447 727 11,785 2,971 40,172 92 473 127
1,756 596 1,228 15,852 3,916 57,240 122 631 169
855 447 727 11,942 2,971 40,172 92 473 127
120
90
120
90
Questions?
SSC Report to NEFMC
Newport, RI December 6, 2017 Jason McNamee, SSC Chair
#1
Topics • Scallop OFLs & ABCs 2018-2019 • Whiting + Red hake OFLs & ABCs 2018-2020 • Groundfish OFLs & ABCs 2018-2020
Scallops
Scallops: Growth • Growth still slow relative to other areas in NLS • Projected growth underperformed slightly but still better assumption than normal growth assumption
Scallops: Growth • Growth slow relative to other areas in ET • Projected growth higher than that seen in 2017
Scallops: Biomass estimates
Scallops: Summary • The SSC agreed with the modifications made to the update assessment as defined and explained by the PDT • OFL for sea scallops is 72,055 mt in 2018 and 69,633 mt in 2019 (default) • ABC for sea scallops should not exceed 59,968 mt in 2018 and 58,126 mt in 2019 (default)
Scallops: Summary • SSC recommends that the PDT continue to investigate alternate weighting scenarios for combining the three surveys used in the analysis • Good opportunity to do this during 2018 benchmark stock assessment • Examination could include geostatistical methods and dredge efficiency • SSC supports continuing investigation into varying growth rates • Investigation could be implemented as standard procedure for annual update
Whiting and Red Hake
Silver Hake: Survey trends and F
Northern
Southern
Red Hake: Survey trends and F Northern
Southern
Whiting and Red Hake: Summary • OFL for 2018 - 2020: • Northern silver hake = 58,350 mt • Southern silver hake = 31,180 mt • Northern red hake = 840 mt • Southern red hake = 1,150 mt • ABC for 2018 – 2020 not to exceed: • Northern silver hake = 31,030 mt • Southern silver hake = 19,395 • Northern red hake = 721 mt • Southern red hake = 1,060 mt • Recommend re-evaluating and updating reference points at next opportunity
Whiting and Red Hake: Summary • New analytical assessment techniques should be investigated at a benchmark • SSC recommends new ABC control rules be developed for these stocks to promote rebuilding (Southern red rake) • Comment in response to PDT recommendation on P* values • Revisit use of 3- year average in stock status determination • SSC recommends revisiting these stocks again to avoid stock status declining to the point of needing to enter in to a rebuilding plan • Due to Southern red hake
Groundfish
Groundfish: General issues • Operational assessment process: • Commend all participants for efforts to complete tasks in a focused and efficient manner • Issue with regard to documenting the use and review of catchability research • Was reviewed/discussed at workshop but did not show up in SSC documents • Recommend re-evaluating SSC control rules • Constant catch being used routinely • Empirical approaches create challenges • Recommend letting significant change working group work on strawman approach
Groundfish: General issues • Retrospective patterns: • SSC recommends that a thorough reexamination of appropriate scientific/management responses to retrospective patterns is warranted • Cross stock risk: • SSC recommends finding a good way to formally provide information on indirect risks of catch advice to external stocks
Groundfish: GB and GOM Winter Flounder • First stock where survey catchability (q) research arose as a discussion item • For GOM winter flounder, the notion of applying new q to all surveys was questioned, should be investigated further • Disagreement on whether the catchability information impacted catch advice deliberations • SSC discussed numerous approaches for developing catch advice • Consensus reached to adopt PDT option for both stocks using constant ABC for the three years of the specification setting period to account for scientific uncertainty
Groundfish: SNE/MA Winter Flounder • Optimistic projections for this stock driven by apparent overestimation of recruitment • Additionally, domed shaped selectivity creating an abundance of “cryptic biomass” • Decision was to use model output and PDT option as initial basis for catch advice, but to account for scientific uncertainties (above) and poor stock status, SSC based ABC on average of recent 3 years of catch and keeping catch advice constant • Additional recommendation was to better account for changes in productivity by investigating subsetting recruitment from periods of lower productivity when doing projections
Groundfish: CC/GOM Yellowtail • q research discussed again but decided to use the PDT constant ABC option • Rationale for applying a different approach in setting catch advice for CC/GoM yellowtail as compared to SNE/MA yellowtail (stay tuned) was: • projections performing better for this stock • positive signals from assessment (increased biomass and strong recruitment signal) • SSC discussed use of ensemble of models for setting catch advice • Attributes to both the analytical and empirical approach • May be value in investigating the use of an ensemble of information for setting catch advice in the future • Can address multiple sources of uncertainty simultaneously
Groundfish: Northern and Southern Windowpane • Adopted Peer Review advice and PDT option • Now information available for an area swept biomass approach, recommend that this be investigated for future windowpane assessments
Groundfish: Atlantic Wolfish • Adopted Peer Review advice and PDT option • SSC discussed the need to develop a new harvest control rule for this stock • Setting ABC much higher than recent catch seemed counterintuitive • Would be worthwhile to revisit the need for catch advice for a stock that has a harvest prohibition on it
Groundfish: American Plaice • Adopted Peer Review advice and PDT option • Discussion on improving the analysis for plaice given new age information • SSC noted data conflicts in information (different inshore and offshore trends), however, given good stock status, SSC comfortable with 75%FMSY projection recommendation • Economic considerations discussed, but given that there was no quantified info provided, SSC requested developing techniques to bring economic info into process in future
Groundfish: Witch Flounder • Discussion on ability to determine OFL; SSC continues to state that we do not have a good approach for determining OFL • SSC was informed that Council is seeking guidance on how to address the unknown OFL situation from NOAA; Council will provide guidance once received • Adopted Peer Review advice and PDT option • Justification were: • Recent, strong year class that will allow for rebuilding • Signal corroborated by other sources of information external to assessment • Per info provided and public comment, further restrictions in catch would increase the risk of constraining catch and negative economic consequences on other stocks
Groundfish: GOM Cod • Ensemble approach using multiple model inference was used to set catch advice • SSC dropped one of the three models considered in the past • Mramp model that drops to M=0.2 not considered biologically reasonable • Rho adjustment was not used in this case for the M=0.2 model. Justified by: • Examination of the CVs (very precise) • Not recommend by reviewers • Inclusion would have had little impact on the catch advice • Ensemble approach accounts for scientific uncertainty
Groundfish: GB Cod • Adopted Peer Review advice and PDT option • SSC discussion focused on “PlanBsmooth”, recommend: • Approach be simulation tested to answer questions about stability • Control rule options be investigated for this technique
Groundfish: Pollock • Adopted Peer Review advice and PDT option (constant catch) • Stock status is good so justification for constant catch approach is “cryptic biomass” that is accumulating for this species • Outcome of catch advice is sensitive to this feature • Constant catch approach warranted to account for this scientific uncertainty
Groundfish: SNE/MA Yellowtail • This stock was an extremely difficult deliberation for the SSC • Advice was rendered in October (rejected analytical assessment, peer review advice, and PDT options for catch advice) choosing to use “PlanBsmooth” for setting catch advice • q discussion was a major factor in the above decision • Subsequent to the meeting, “PlanBsmooth” method developed during October meeting was reviewed and found to be inconsistent • Re-deliberated on a conference call November 27, 2017
Groundfish: SNE/MA Yellowtail • Corrected calculation of “PlanBsmooth” changed catch advice significantly • SSC members noted that the stock was in poor condition given the indicators examined by the SSC, and conservative management is warranted • Despite this , some SSC members cited lack of confidence in analytical assessment given the results of the assessment in the context of the q research • After a vigorous discussion with multiple proposals being made, the SSC reached the following recommendations: • The majority of the SSC recommends averaging model based PDT recommendation with the corrected “PlanBsmooth” output • Model averaging recommended to account for the scientific uncertainty associated with the two divergent model outputs
Groundfish: SNE/MA Yellowtail • Despite a concerted effort to reach consensus, there is a minority opinion from the SSC • This opinion was to offer a range of catch advice based on the two proposals offered rather than the average as recommended by the majority of the SSC • Results in an OFL with a range from 134 – 45 mt and an ABC in the range of 100 – 35 mt • Recommended to highlight the range of uncertainty that SSC was contending with • Both recommendations are higher than what the analytical model suggests as being appropriate in the first year of the specification, but the majority recommendation becomes lower in subsequent years • Adequately accounts for continued poor stock status • Large reduction from previous advice
Groundfish: ABCs and OFLs Stock GB cod GOM cod GB Haddock GOM Haddock GB Yellowtail Flounder SNE/MA Yellowtail Flounder CC/GOM Yellowtail Flounder American Plaice Witch Flounder GB Winter Flounder GOM Winter Flounder SNE/MA Winter Flounder Acadian Redfish White Hake Pollock Northern Windowpane Flounder Southern Windowpane Flounder Ocean Pout Atlantic Halibut- 2015 SSC Wolffish
OFL 2018 3,047 938 94,274 16,954
ABC 2018 2,285 703 73,114 13,131
OFL 2019 3,047 938 99,757 16,038
ABC 2019 2,285 703 73,114 12,490
OFL 2020 3,047 938 100,825 13,020
ABC 2020 2,285 703 73,114 10,186
unknown
300
unknown
300
-
-
90 662 2,260
68 511 1,732
90 736 2,099
68 511 1,609
90 848 1,945
68 511 1,492
unknown
993
unknown
993
unknown
993
1,083 596 1,228 15,451 3,885 51,680 122 631 169 210 120
855 447 727 11,552 2,971 40,172 92 473 127 158 90
1,182 596 1,228 15,640 3,898 53,940 122 631 169
855 447 727 11,785 2,971 40,172 92 473 127
1,756 596 1,228 15,852 3,916 57,240 122 631 169
855 447 727 11,942 2,971 40,172 92 473 127
120
90
120
90
Questions?
