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The SPE Foundation through member donations and a contribution from Offshore Europe The Society is grateful to those companies that allow their professionals to serve as lecturers Additional support provided by AIME
Society of Petroleum Engineers Distinguished Lecturer Program www.spe.org/dl
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Outline • Illustration of the Prize
• Present trend in Unconventional Reservoir Modeling and it’s
impact on production • Challenges the industry face to enhance recovery factor while reducing cost per unit of hydrocarbon recovered • Where should the future engineers focus? – What technologies are there and what are needed in the near future to optimally place wells for the enhanced recovery – What technologies are there and what the industry needs in the near future to decide the optimum placement of the hydraulic fracture stages
• Illustrative field examples and the recommended way forward
3 Copyright 2012 Baker Hughes Incorporated. All rights reserved.
2
Unconventional Gas Resource: A Global Phenomenon
5,767
1,278
2,015
9,162
6,669
1,050
5,560
795
8,197
1,220
2,556
Over 44,300 TCF Gas in place resources Source: Baker Hughes, EIA, SPE 68755, Kawata & Fujita from Rogner
Pie size to scale
© 2012 Baker Hughes Incorporated. All Rights Reserved.
3
Unconventional Oil Resources 2-3 Trillion Barrels
Russia Bazhenov Shale WSB 1,600 BBO
Europe 100 BBO Canada Cardium Bakken 24 BBO, Niobrara 3 BBO
Utica, Eagle Ford, Barnett, 15 BBO
China
Permian, Mississippian 9 BBO
MENA
Argentina Neuquén Basin 23 BBO
Australia
South Africa
4
Unconventional Development – Learning Curve Barnett Shale Development Horizontal
Vertical
Directional
Maximum gas 6 mo. production (MCF)
400,000
350,000
300,000
250,000
200,000
Multistage Completions 150,000
100,000
50,000
0 Jan-81 Jan-83 Jan-85 Jan-87 Jan-89 Jan-91 Jan-93 Jan-95 Jan-97 Jan-99 Jan-01 Jan-03 Jan-05 Jan-07 Jan-09 Jan-11 Jan-13
Date
Technology Evolution and Production Selected Unconventional Gas Basins, Onshore U.S.
Horizontal Gas Well Average
Horizontal Gas Stages Per Well and Average Lateral Length. 25
4000 5,000
3500
4,000
3,500 15
3,000 2,500
10
2,000 1,500
5
Avg Lateral Length (ft)
Stages Per Well
20
Gas per Well, MCFPD
4,500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000
1,000 500
0
0
2007
2008
2009
2010
500
0
2011
0
10
20
30
Months Average Per Well Average Lateral length Source: BHI, HPDI, IHS, Company data
Stages Per Well
2006 2009 Source: HPDI
2007 2010
2008 2011
A Closer Look at the “Shale Revolution” 70% of unconventional wells in the U.S.
do not reach their production targets*
60% of all fracture stages are ineffective** operators say they do not know 73% of enough about the subsurface* Efficiency and Effectiveness are key
*Source: Welling & Company, 2012 **Source: Hart’s E&P, 2012
The Inter-Play Between Drilling / Completion / Stimulation From Discrete Components To An Integrated Solution Maximize ROI Maximize Reservoir Contact Improve Stage Placement and Stimulation
Improve Well Placement
Customer Value
Evaluate
Basin Study : Existing Data Data Acquisition Integration: Cores Logs Seismic PVT Interpretation and Simulation: Resources in Place Sweet Spot Identification Static Model (Petrophysical, Geomechanical, Geological Dynamic Model Production Profile Field Development (Well Placement / spacing / frac design) Economics: CAPEX/OPEX Payout/ROI
Maximize Initial Production
Drill
Well Placement: FE Geomechanics Reservoir Navigation Directional Drilling Wellbore Stability: Pore Pressure Prediction Drilling Fluid System BHA Integration: RSS (v Mud Motors) Drilling Fluid System Bits
Maximize Ultimate Recovery Improve Production Performance
Complete
Lateral Characterization: Advanced Mud Logging (Acquire/Develop) High Res Imaging (Wireline/LWD)
Engineered Fracture Design: FE Microseismic Modeling Monitoring Fluid/Proppant/Ad ditives Pressure Pumping Proper Completion System Selection: Multistage Completion Systems / Components * Pressure Pumping
Seamless Service Alignment 10
© 2013 Baker Hughes Incorporated. All Rights Reserved.
Produce
Prevention: Longterm Chemical Inhibitors Production Monitoring and Analysis: PLT Log Remediation: Production Chemical Program Coiled Tubing Clean Out/Treatment Water Management
Rejuvenate
Re-Fracturing:
Benefits Accountability Consistency Reliability Predictability Product Performance Increased Production
Unconventional Workflow: How is it Different?
8 11
© 2011 Baker Hughes Incorporated. All Rights Reserved.
Shale Reservoir Analysis • Conventional reservoir modeling & analyses not effective for shale • Shale reservoirs require new
Black Shale 3.5% TOC (avg) 0.83% Ro (avg)
approaches to Analysis & Forecast • An integrated “shale engineering” approach is required to plan wells, stimulate & forecast long-term production for economic evaluations 12 © 12 2011 Baker Hughes Incorporated. All Rights Reserved.
What is a “Sweet Spot”? • The “Sweet Spot” is where the
maximum power is generated with the least amount of effort and vibration . • The Sweet Spot is important in these
sports because we don’t all have perfect swings. • What does this have to do with
unconventional resources?
13
© 2012 Baker Hughes Incorporated. All Rights Reserved.
Sweet Spot
Unconventional Resources Sweet Spot Characteristics A “Sweet Spot” or “Core” represents the concurrence of several favorable parameters such as: TOC Kerogen Type Fluid Thermal Maturity Depositional Environment (Litho-facies)
Geochemical
Depth Thickness Lithology/Mineralogy Porosity Pressure (Continued Producibility) 14
© 2012 Baker Hughes Incorporated. All Rights Reserved.
Geomechanical
Anisotropy Stress Regime Fractures Faulting Brittleness (Fracturability) Sweet Spot
Geological
Sweet Spots are not Contiguous
Can we Identify Optimal Areas For Reservoir Stimulation Before Drilling and Frac’ing?
10
Attribute Analysis + Lithofacies = Sweet Spot Identification Actual Amplitude Formation Top
RMS Amplitude Formation Top
8000
16000
-20000
2000
Location of LPLD events are correlative with amplitude anomalies
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TOC (Total Organic Content) Vs. Acoustic Impedance Lower Acoustic Impedance = Higher TOC and Natural Fractures
Source: AAPG Explorer. Dec 2009
13
Shale Resource Seismic Characterization
Courtesy of CGG and BHI Alliance 18
Multi-Attribute Prediction of TOC (WPCTOC) HIGH
Courtesy of CGG and BHI Alliance
LOW
Locating Areas of High TOC in Seismic Volume
Volumetric View of TOC with well penetrations
Fault
Multiple uneconomic wells Several TOC rich areas yet to be exploited
High Probability
Courtesy of CGG and BHI Alliance 20
Vertical Pilot Well: The start
TOC, Vitrinite Reflectance Ro, Thermal Maturity, Porosity, K, P, Natural fractures, faults, karsts, hazards 21
© 2010 Baker Hughes Incorporated. All Rights Reserved.
Moving from Pilot wells to development wells Reservoir Navigation Services - RNS (Azimuthal Resistivity & Gamma Images) Armstrong Co., Pennsylvania – Marcellus Case History
Target for Lateral High TOC = only 15ft Thick
Well Trajectory Planned • Seismic • Shale Analysis • Offset Well Data
Follow the high TOC path © 2010 Baker Hughes Incorporated. All Rights Reserved.
22
Monitored LWD GR • Up and Down • To determine if well approaching formation top or bottom / correct
© 2010 Baker Hughes Incorporated. All Rights Reserved.
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Evaluating the Resource and Production Potential Resistivity / Density /Neutron • 20 Formation Lithology
• Geochemistry • Lithology • Mineralogy • Total organic carbon
Spectroscopy
• Lithology • Mineralogy • Th/U for Carbon classification
Microseismic
Image correlation with lithology and facies
Imaging
Fracture detection
Large Diameter Coring
Core analyses
Deep Reading Shear Acoustic
• Geomechanical properties from Wellbore and away from wellbore
Nuclear Magnetic Resonance
• Porosity • Independent measure of total organic carbon
Logging and Core analyses can identify: Fomation with producible source rock hydrocarbon o Optimum formations to drill horizontal laterals o Optimall placement of frac stages o Potential barriers for frac containment Mineralogy key component integrated with Geomechanics o
o 23
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Mineralogy Varies in Shale Reservoirs
17 24
© 2011 Baker Hughes Incorporated. All Rights Reserved.
Shale Reservoirs are Anything but Homogeneous
millimeters
150 ft
2 inches
18 © 25 2011 Baker Hughes Incorporated. All Rights Reserved.
Wellbore Imaging: Fractures, Faults & Geohazards WBM
OBM
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High-definition LWD Imaging to Optimize Completions Avoiding fault zone: don’t frac into water below target horizon
Targeting natural fracture swarms maximizes impact of the frac energy
Avoiding fracture swarms from adjacent wells frac job
Targeting natural fracture swarms maximizes impact of the frac energy
Eliminate nonproductive stages
X
X
Case Histories Show Production Increases up to 20 % 27
Deep Shear Wave Imaging (up to 70m away) • Methodology – Filtering direct waves – Reflected wave stacking – Reflector strike inversion – Fullwave data migration • Benefits – Illuminate natural fractures up to 70 m away. – Identify mechanical strata – Placing laterals
28 ©
Imaging fractures that intersect the well
Imaging fractures that do not intersect the well
The Next 5-10 Years ~100,000 Wells, 1-2 Million Hydrofracs Horn River Basin/ Cordova Embayment >700 Tcf Montney Deep Basin >250 Tcf
Colorado Group >300 Tcf Bakken 3.65 Billion Bbl
Antrim 35-160 Tcf
Green River 1.3-2 Trillion Bbl
Utica Shale
New Albany 86-160 Tcf
Gammon
Horton Bluff Formation
Michigan Basin Lewis/Mancos 97 Tcf
Niobrara/Mowry Cane Creek
Monterey
Marcellus 225-520 Tcf Woodford Palo Duro
OIL SHALE PLAY GAS SHALE PLAY
Fayetteville 20 Tcf Floyd/ Conasauga
Avalon
0 Eagle Ford 25-100+ Tcfe
Barnett 24-252 Tcf
Haynesville (Shreveport/Louisiana) 29-39 Tcf
How Do We Optimize Resource Development? 29
© 2010 Baker Hughes Incorporated. All Rights Reserved.
600 MILES
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Outside North America?: The Next 5-10 Years? Wells, ? Hydraulic fracs Eastern Hm UK Poland Russia Turkey Saudi Arabia Kuwait India China Indonesia Australia
Western Hm Argentina Mexico, Colombia Brazil
How Do We Optimize Resource Development? 30
© 2010 Baker Hughes Incorporated. All Rights Reserved.
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Production from Nano-Darcy Rocks? oShale Resource has typically permeability in the nano-Darcy
range oGas / hydrocarbon may move in order of few feet in a year!! oWhat mechanism is there then to produce hydrocarbon from such low permeability rocks? oCreation of a stimulated reservoir volume that has both longitudinal and shear fractures Longitudinal bi-wing fracture
Shear fracture envelope © 201031Baker Hughes Incorporated. All Rights Reserved.
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From Natural Shale to the Artificial Reservoir
Logs and core
In situ stress determination
Microseismic Re-processing Natural Fracture Permeability Analysis
Benefits • Enhancing reservoir understanding • Exploiting modern technology
Confidential
25
Shale Model Description NATURAL – Dual Permeability – Fracture – Anisotropy
INDUCED MAJOR Proppant placement
Natural fractures
Matrix
NATURAL
– Non-Darcy flow – Gas Desorption 33
Stimulated Rock Volume (SRV)
INDUCED MINOR
Confidential
26
Shale Engineering Predictive Model Matched production history and production logging Frac stage contribution match Proppant placement match Well History match
Pressure Drop, psi
Narrow Uncertainty
Confidential
27
= DWR NPVNPV – CF = DWR (10^6$) – CF(10^6$)
NPV Vs. Transverse Fractures
Number Transverse Fractures Number of of Transverse Fractures
32
Ball Activated Sleeve Open / Close Completion System
Ball with Frac Sleeve Open
Varying Ball Sizes
Frac Sleeve in Closed Position Lighter than AL / Stronger than Steel
28 © 2009 33Baker Hughes Incorporated. All Rights Reserved.
Extend and orientation of fractures created
This type of information allows engineers to optimize the fracturing staging and to optimize the placement of additional wells.
30
Relating stage contributions to production: Impact on Field Development Plan
Events
9
8
-
0.98
6
7
5
4
3
2
1
Natural fractures
B-values
9
8
-
7
1.01
6
-
5
1.92 2.27 1.92
4
3
Rates measured by PLT 5 months later 38
© 2012 Baker Hughes Incorporated. All Rights Reserved.
2
-
1
30 25 20 15 10 5 0
Fracture Mechanics Based Model
σh = σH, NF 100 EW (90o)
σh = σH, NF 100 NS (45o)
σh = σH, NF 100 NS (0o)
Concluding Remarks •
Shale resource is not contiguous and no two Shale basins are the same – Sweet spot identification is going to be critical (seismic attribute + Lithofacies) for well placement – Different shales will require different set of attributes and the associated lithofacies
• Geometric placement of hydraulic fracture stages needs to be replaced by shale productivity based parameters – Capitalize on the presence of natural fractures at the well bore as well as away from the wellbore – Avoid faults and geohazards © 201040Baker Hughes Incorporated. All Rights Reserved.
34
Shale Technology: A Look Ahead • Nanotechnology: An Enabler for Multiple Oil & Gas Applications XMACsm
Production Enhancement
Reservoir Assessment
Formation Evaluation
Completion
Drilling
35 © 41 2011 Baker Hughes Incorporated. All Rights Reserved.
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