Thai Oil Underperform (16E TP Bt70.00)
Thai Oil Underperform (16E TP Bt70.00)
Earnings Review
Close Bt62.25
Energy & Utilities August 9, 2016
Beat forecast / Below forecast / In line
Soaring 2Q16 NP; but no positive catalysts ahead Price Performance (%)
Source: SET Smart
FY16
FY17
Consensus EPS (Bt)
7.372
7.265
KT ZMICO vs. consensus Share data
‐1.4%
‐1.2%
Reuters / Bloomberg
TOP.BK/TOP TB
Paid‐up Shares (m)
2,040.03
Par (Bt)
10.00
Market cap (Bt bn / US$ m)
127.00/3,630.00
Foreign limit / actual (%)
40.00/20.43
52 week High / Low (Bt)
72.00/44.50
Avg. daily T/O (shares 000)
6,720.00
NVDR (%)
14.15
Estimated free float (%)
50.05
Beta
1.01
URL
www.thaioilgroup.com
CGR Anti‐corruption
Level 4 (Certified)
No positive catalysts ahead; “Underperform” maintained Despite the soaring 2Q16 NP, we see no positive catalysts ahead except for the continuing fragile market GRM and the weak oil price, which are likely to cap its earnings momentum in 2H16E. Thus, we maintain an “Underperform” rating on TOP and prefer event‐play stocks like IRPC (UHV kickoff; Buy, TP Bt5.5) and BCP (BCPG spinoff; Buy, TP Bt37). Reported 2Q16 NP of Bt7.75bn, slightly above our forecast by 6.5% TOP delivered 2Q16 NP of Bt7.75bn (+24.5% YoY, +64% QoQ), beating our forecast (Bt7.3bn) by 6.5% and the consensus forecast (Bt6.5bn) by 19%, with the higher‐than‐expected stock gain (Bt4.1bn vs. our forecast of Bt3.8bn) and dividend income amounting to Bt247mn from Thappline as the main deviations. Refinery the main growth catalyst in 2Q16 The refinery was the main contributor in 2Q16, largely due to the substantial stock gain (~Bt4.1bn, approximately US$4.2/bbl) and LCM reversal (Bt256mn). Its market GIM stayed weak at US$6.9/bbl in 2Q16 (down both YoY and QoQ), weighed down by lower market GRM at US$4.4/bbl (with lower crack spreads on all fronts except the gasoil spread and lower fuel loss savings) despite the sustained GIM contribution of US$2.3/bbl from aromatics and lube base and the first contribution of a US$0.3/bbl incremental margin from the LABIX project. Given the US$4.2/bbl stock gain, its accounting GIM stood at US$11.1/bbl in 2Q16 (vs. US$11.4/bbl in 2Q15 and US$7.3/bbl in 1Q16). Meanwhile, TOP SPP made its first contribution (unit#1: 124MW in Apr‐2016; and unit#2: 115MW in Jun‐2016) in the quarter. 2016E forecasts maintained; 2H16E performance remains at risk Although 1H16 NP accounts for 84% of our full‐year forecast, we currently maintain the 2016E NP of Bt14.8bn (based on assumed market GIM of US$7.8/bbl with no incorporation of stock impact), with 2Q16 likely to have been the peak quarter. Note that the stock gain and reversal of LCM amounted to Bt4.05bn in 1H16; if excluding this item, its 1H16 operating profit accounts for 57% of our full‐year forecast. Meanwhile, the 2H16E earnings remain at risk, with market GRM still under pressure from the continuing weak gasoline spread and gasoil spread, along with the current weak oil price in the low‐US$40/bbl as the downside risk on stock impact in the remaining quarters (vs. US$46/bbl in Jun‐2016). Financials and Valuation
Note: An executive of KT ZMICO Securities is also a member of BCP’s board.
Patcharin Karsemarnuntana Analyst, no 17834 [email protected] 66 (0) 2695‐5837
FY Ended 31 Dec Revenues (Btmn) Net profit (Btmn) EPS (Bt) EPS growth (%) Dividend (Bt) BV (Bt)
2014 390,090 (4,140) (2.03) nm 1.16 40.88
2015 293,569 12,181 5.97 nm 2.70 45.28
2016E 285,701 14,821 7.27 21.67 3.27 49.39
2017E 334,942 14,656 7.18 (1.11) 3.23 53.32
2018E 364,079 14,062 6.89 (4.05) 3.10 57.05
FY Ended 31 Dec PER (x) EV/EBITDA (x) PBV (x) Dividend yield (%) ROE (%) Net gearing (%)
2014 nm nm 1.52 1.9% ‐4.7% 40.3%
2015 10.43 6.41 1.37 4.3% 13.9% 24.2%
2016E 8.57 5.77 1.26 5.3% 15.3% 27.3%
2017E 8.66 5.50 1.17 5.2% 14.0% 19.3%
2018E 9.03 5.21 1.09 5.0% 12.5% 10.7%
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 1 of 3
Figure 1: TOP’s 2Q16 earnings review Profit and Loss (Btmn) Year‐end 31 Dec Revenue Gross profit EBITDA Interest expense Other income Income tax Forex gain (loss) Other extraordinary Items Gn (Ls) from affiliates Minority interests Net profit (loss) Core profit (loss) * Reported EPS (Bt) Gross margin (%) EBITDA margin (%) Net margin (%) Current ratio (x) Interest coverage (x) Debt / equity (x) BVPS (Bt) ROE (%)
2Q15 79,036 9,179 10,097 (963) 214 (361) (1,179) ‐ 164 (110) 6,228 7,407 3.05 11.61 12.78 7.88 3.39 8.79 0.77 45.54 27.56
1Q16 56,790 5,224 6,558 (805) 292 (363) 687 ‐ 305 (106) 4,726 4,039 2.32 9.20 11.55 8.32 3.36 5.86 0.78 47.59 19.96
2Q16 72,368 9,361 10,602 (866) 400 (688) 110 ‐ 198 (97) 7,753 7,642 3.80 12.94 14.65 10.71 3.59 10.04 0.76 49.59 31.28
% YoY (8.4) 2.0 5.0 (10.1) 86.5 90.7 nm nm 20.8 (12.2) 24.5 3.2 24.6
% QoQ 27.4 79.2 61.7 7.5 36.9 89.5 (83.9) nm (34.9) (8.5) 64.1 89.2 63.8
1H16 129,158 14,585 17,160 (1,670) 692 (1,051) 798 ‐ 503 (202) 12,479 11,681 6.12 11.29 13.29 9.66 3.59 8.03 0.76 49.59 24.67
% YoY (14.1) 1.4 6.6 (13.0) (3.6) 47.1 nm nm 17.9 7.6 16.3 4.0 16.3
2015 293,569 19,750 23,309 (3,435) 3,035 (1,597) (2,754) ‐ 712 (323) 12,181 14,935 5.97 6.73 7.94 4.15 4.97 4.82 0.82 45.28 13.86
2016E 285,701 22,073 26,757 (3,339) 1,448 (1,946) 208 ‐ 799 (574) 14,821 14,612 7.27 7.73 9.37 5.19 5.25 5.46 0.87 49.39 15.35
% YoY (2.7) 11.8 14.8 (2.8) (52.3) 21.8 nm nm 12.2 77.6 21.7 (2.2) 21.7
% YTD 45.2 66.1 64.1 50.0 47.8 54.0 382.7 nm 62.9 35.3 84.2 79.9 84.2
Source: KT ZMICO Research Note: *including stock gain (loss) impact, LCM impact and hedging gain (loss) as the recurring items
Figure 2: TOP’s 2Q16 NP breakdown
2Q16 (A) NP 1Q16 (A) NP 2Q15 (A) NP % QoQ % YoY
TOP
TPX
5,655 2,788 4,791 103% 18%
TLB
752 881 457 ‐15% 65%
TP
Thaioil Solvent
TM
Ethanol
Others
460 502 524 ‐8% ‐12%
441
26
158
(26)
402
48
27
24
219
28
138
(6)
10% 101%
‐46% ‐7%
485% 14%
nm nm
16 18 12 ‐11% 33%
Inter‐ transaction/MI 271
Source: Company, KT ZMICO Research
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 2 of 3
Total 7,753
36
4,726
65
6,228
653% 317%
64% 24%
Note: KT ZMICO has two major shareholders, Krungthai Bank PLC (KTB) and Seamico Securities PLC (ZMICO). Therefore, prior to making investments in the securities of KTB and ZMICO, investors should consider the risk factors carefully. An executive of KT ZMICO Securities is also a board member of BCP, BTC, CI, CPI, KBS, MAJOR, MK, PACE, PSL, SVH, VNG, ZMICO, SAWAD, TFG. A management member of KT ZMICO Securities is also a board member of BTC and NFC. KT ZMICO is a financial advisor for U, LOXLEY, ZMICO, MAKRO, CPALL, SAFARI, PACE, PLE, TPOLY, M‐CHAI. KT ZMICO is a co‐underwriter of ALT, EKH, RJH.
Corporate Governance Report (CGR) Source: Sec, Thai Institute of Directors Association (IOD) Excellent (scores: 90 ‐ 100) Very Good (scores: 80 – 89) Good (scores: 70 – 79)
Satisfactory (scores: 60 – 69) Pass (scores: 50 – 59) No Logo N/A (scores: below 50)
Anti‐corruption Progress Indicator Source: Sec, Thailand's Private Sector Collective Action Coalition Against Corruption programme (Thai CAC)
Level 1 (Committed) : Organization’s statement or board's resolution to work against corruption and to be in compliance with all relevant laws. Level 2 (Declared) : Public declaration statement to participate in Thailand's private sector Collective Action Coalition Against Corruption (CAC) or equivalent initiatives Level 3 (Established) : Public out preventive measures, risk assessment, communication and training for all employees, including consistent monitoring and review processes Level 4 (Certified) : Audit engagement by audit committee or auditors approved by the office of SEC, and receiving certification or assurance by independent external assurance providers (CAC etc.) Level 5 (Extended) : Extension of the anti‐corruption policy to business partners in the supply chain, and disclosure of any current investigations, prosecutions or closed cases Insufficient or not clearly defined policy Data not available / no policy
DISCLAIMER This document is produced using open sources believed to be reliable. However, their accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. The statements and opinions herein were formed after due and careful consideration for use as information for the purposes of investment. The opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. This document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. The use of any information contained in this document shall be at the sole discretion and risk of the user.
KT ZMICO RESEARCH – RECOMMENDATION DEFINITIONS STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS BUY: Expecting positive total returns of 15% or more OVERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's over the next 12 months coverage universe, is expected to outperform the relevant
OUTPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% primary market index by at least 10% over the next 12 months. to +15%; returns expected to exceed market returns NEUTRAL: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage over a six‐month period due to specific catalysts universe, is expected to perform in line with the relevant UNDERPERFORM: Expecting total returns between primary market index over the next 12 months. ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to be below market UNDERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's returns over a six‐month period due to specific coverage universe, is expected to underperform the relevant catalysts primary market index by 10% over the next 12 months. SELL: Expecting negative total returns of 10% or more over the next 12 months
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 3 of 3
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KT•ZMICO Securities Company Limited
st
8 , 15 -17 , 19 , 21 Floor, Liberty Square Bldg., 287 Silom Road, Bangrak, Bangkok 10500 Telephone: (66-2) 695-5000
Phaholyothin Branch
rd
Fax. (66-2) 631-1709
Ploenchit Branch
th
nd
2
Sindhorn Branch
3 Floor, Shinnawatra Tower II,
8 Floor, Ton Son Tower,
1291/1 Phaholyothin Road,
900 Ploenchit Road, Lumpini,
Floor, Sindhorn Tower 1, 130-132 Wireless Road, Lumpini,
Phayathai, Bangkok 10400
Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330
Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330
Telephone: (66-2) 686-1500
Telephone: (66-2) 626-6000
Telephone: (66-2) 627-3550
Fax. (66-2) 686-1666
Fax. (66-2) 626-6111
Fax. (66-2) 627-3582, 627-3600
Nakhon Pathom Branch 1156 Petchakasem Road, Sanamchan Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang , Nakhon Pathom Province 73000 Telephone: (034) 271300 Fax: (034) 271300 #100
Chachoengsao Branch
Viphavadee Branch
Phitsanulok Branch
G Floor, Lao Peng Nguan 1 Bldg.,
Krung Thai Bank, Singhawat Branch
333 Soi Cheypuand, Viphavadee-Rangsit Road,
114 Singhawat Road,
Ladyao, Jatujak, Bangkok 10900
Muang, Phitsanulok 65000
Telephone: (66-2) 618-8500
Telephone: 083-490-2873
Fax. (66-2) 618-8569
th
Chonburi Branch
Pattaya Branch
108/34-36 Mahajakkrapad Road,
4 Floor, Forum Plaza Bldg.,
382/6-8 Moo 9, T. NongPrue,
T.Namuang, A.Muang,
870/52 Sukhumvit Road, T. Bangplasoy,
A. Banglamung, Cholburi 20260
Chachoengsao 24000
A. Muang, Cholburi 20000
Telephone: (038) 362-420-9
Telephone: (038) 813-088
Telephone: (038) 287-635
Fax. (038) 362-430
Fax. (038) 813-099
Fax. (038) 287-637
Khon Kaen Branch
5th Floor, Charoen Thani Princess Hotel,
Hat Yai Branch
Sriworajak Building Branch
200/301 Juldis Hatyai Plaza Floor 3,
1st – 2nd Floor, Sriworajak Building, 222
260 Srichan Road, T. Naimuang,
Niphat-Uthit 3 Rd,
Luang Road, Pomprab,
A. Muang, Khon Kaen 40000
Hatyai Songkhla 90110
Bankgok 10100
Telephone: (043) 389-171-193
Telephone: (074) 355-530-3
Telephone: (02) 689-3100
Fax. (043) 389-209
Fax: (074) 355-534
Fax. (02) 689-3199
Central World Branch
Chiang Mai Branch
Phuket Branch
999/9 The Offices at Central World,
422/49 Changklan Road, Changklan
22/61-63, Luang Por Wat Chalong Road,
16th Fl., Rama 1 Rd, Pathumwan,
Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang,
Talat Yai, Mueang Phuket,
Bangkok 10330
Chiang Mai 50100
Phuket 83000
Telephone: (66-2) 673-5000,
Telephone: (053) 270-072
Tel. (076) 222-811,(076) 222-683
(66-2) 264-5888 Fax. (66-2) 264-5899
Fax: (053) 272-618
Fax. (076) 222-861
Pak Chong Branch
Cyber Branch @ North Nana
173 175, Mittapap Road,
Krung Thai Bank PCL, 2 Floor, North Nana Branch 35 Sukhumvit Rd.,Klong Toey Nua Subdistrict , Wattana District, Bangkok 10110 Telephone: 083-490-2871
Nong Sarai, Pak Chong, Nakhon Ratchasima 30130 Tel. (044) 279-511 Fax. (044) 279-574
Nakhon Ratchasima Branch
Bangkhae Branch
6th Floor The Mall Group Building Bangkhae 275 Moo 1 Petchkasem Road, North Bangkhae, Bangkhae, Bangkok 10160 Tel. (66-2) 454-9979 Fax. (66-2) 454-9970
624/9 Changphuek Road, . Naimaung, A.Maung, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000 Telephone: (044) 247222 Fax: (044) 247171 Information herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its completeness and accuracy are not guaranteed. All opinions expressed constitute our views on that date and are not intended as an offer or solicitation to sell or buy any securities. Investors should exercise care when making a decision to invest in securities. No one may modify or distribute any part of this report unless written permission is first received from Seamico Securities Plc. If any modifications are made, quotes or references taken from the report and the report date must be clearly mentioned and must not cause misunderstanding or damage to the company.
Earnings Review
Close Bt62.25
Energy & Utilities August 9, 2016
Beat forecast / Below forecast / In line
Soaring 2Q16 NP; but no positive catalysts ahead Price Performance (%)
Source: SET Smart
FY16
FY17
Consensus EPS (Bt)
7.372
7.265
KT ZMICO vs. consensus Share data
‐1.4%
‐1.2%
Reuters / Bloomberg
TOP.BK/TOP TB
Paid‐up Shares (m)
2,040.03
Par (Bt)
10.00
Market cap (Bt bn / US$ m)
127.00/3,630.00
Foreign limit / actual (%)
40.00/20.43
52 week High / Low (Bt)
72.00/44.50
Avg. daily T/O (shares 000)
6,720.00
NVDR (%)
14.15
Estimated free float (%)
50.05
Beta
1.01
URL
www.thaioilgroup.com
CGR Anti‐corruption
Level 4 (Certified)
No positive catalysts ahead; “Underperform” maintained Despite the soaring 2Q16 NP, we see no positive catalysts ahead except for the continuing fragile market GRM and the weak oil price, which are likely to cap its earnings momentum in 2H16E. Thus, we maintain an “Underperform” rating on TOP and prefer event‐play stocks like IRPC (UHV kickoff; Buy, TP Bt5.5) and BCP (BCPG spinoff; Buy, TP Bt37). Reported 2Q16 NP of Bt7.75bn, slightly above our forecast by 6.5% TOP delivered 2Q16 NP of Bt7.75bn (+24.5% YoY, +64% QoQ), beating our forecast (Bt7.3bn) by 6.5% and the consensus forecast (Bt6.5bn) by 19%, with the higher‐than‐expected stock gain (Bt4.1bn vs. our forecast of Bt3.8bn) and dividend income amounting to Bt247mn from Thappline as the main deviations. Refinery the main growth catalyst in 2Q16 The refinery was the main contributor in 2Q16, largely due to the substantial stock gain (~Bt4.1bn, approximately US$4.2/bbl) and LCM reversal (Bt256mn). Its market GIM stayed weak at US$6.9/bbl in 2Q16 (down both YoY and QoQ), weighed down by lower market GRM at US$4.4/bbl (with lower crack spreads on all fronts except the gasoil spread and lower fuel loss savings) despite the sustained GIM contribution of US$2.3/bbl from aromatics and lube base and the first contribution of a US$0.3/bbl incremental margin from the LABIX project. Given the US$4.2/bbl stock gain, its accounting GIM stood at US$11.1/bbl in 2Q16 (vs. US$11.4/bbl in 2Q15 and US$7.3/bbl in 1Q16). Meanwhile, TOP SPP made its first contribution (unit#1: 124MW in Apr‐2016; and unit#2: 115MW in Jun‐2016) in the quarter. 2016E forecasts maintained; 2H16E performance remains at risk Although 1H16 NP accounts for 84% of our full‐year forecast, we currently maintain the 2016E NP of Bt14.8bn (based on assumed market GIM of US$7.8/bbl with no incorporation of stock impact), with 2Q16 likely to have been the peak quarter. Note that the stock gain and reversal of LCM amounted to Bt4.05bn in 1H16; if excluding this item, its 1H16 operating profit accounts for 57% of our full‐year forecast. Meanwhile, the 2H16E earnings remain at risk, with market GRM still under pressure from the continuing weak gasoline spread and gasoil spread, along with the current weak oil price in the low‐US$40/bbl as the downside risk on stock impact in the remaining quarters (vs. US$46/bbl in Jun‐2016). Financials and Valuation
Note: An executive of KT ZMICO Securities is also a member of BCP’s board.
Patcharin Karsemarnuntana Analyst, no 17834 [email protected] 66 (0) 2695‐5837
FY Ended 31 Dec Revenues (Btmn) Net profit (Btmn) EPS (Bt) EPS growth (%) Dividend (Bt) BV (Bt)
2014 390,090 (4,140) (2.03) nm 1.16 40.88
2015 293,569 12,181 5.97 nm 2.70 45.28
2016E 285,701 14,821 7.27 21.67 3.27 49.39
2017E 334,942 14,656 7.18 (1.11) 3.23 53.32
2018E 364,079 14,062 6.89 (4.05) 3.10 57.05
FY Ended 31 Dec PER (x) EV/EBITDA (x) PBV (x) Dividend yield (%) ROE (%) Net gearing (%)
2014 nm nm 1.52 1.9% ‐4.7% 40.3%
2015 10.43 6.41 1.37 4.3% 13.9% 24.2%
2016E 8.57 5.77 1.26 5.3% 15.3% 27.3%
2017E 8.66 5.50 1.17 5.2% 14.0% 19.3%
2018E 9.03 5.21 1.09 5.0% 12.5% 10.7%
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 1 of 3
Figure 1: TOP’s 2Q16 earnings review Profit and Loss (Btmn) Year‐end 31 Dec Revenue Gross profit EBITDA Interest expense Other income Income tax Forex gain (loss) Other extraordinary Items Gn (Ls) from affiliates Minority interests Net profit (loss) Core profit (loss) * Reported EPS (Bt) Gross margin (%) EBITDA margin (%) Net margin (%) Current ratio (x) Interest coverage (x) Debt / equity (x) BVPS (Bt) ROE (%)
2Q15 79,036 9,179 10,097 (963) 214 (361) (1,179) ‐ 164 (110) 6,228 7,407 3.05 11.61 12.78 7.88 3.39 8.79 0.77 45.54 27.56
1Q16 56,790 5,224 6,558 (805) 292 (363) 687 ‐ 305 (106) 4,726 4,039 2.32 9.20 11.55 8.32 3.36 5.86 0.78 47.59 19.96
2Q16 72,368 9,361 10,602 (866) 400 (688) 110 ‐ 198 (97) 7,753 7,642 3.80 12.94 14.65 10.71 3.59 10.04 0.76 49.59 31.28
% YoY (8.4) 2.0 5.0 (10.1) 86.5 90.7 nm nm 20.8 (12.2) 24.5 3.2 24.6
% QoQ 27.4 79.2 61.7 7.5 36.9 89.5 (83.9) nm (34.9) (8.5) 64.1 89.2 63.8
1H16 129,158 14,585 17,160 (1,670) 692 (1,051) 798 ‐ 503 (202) 12,479 11,681 6.12 11.29 13.29 9.66 3.59 8.03 0.76 49.59 24.67
% YoY (14.1) 1.4 6.6 (13.0) (3.6) 47.1 nm nm 17.9 7.6 16.3 4.0 16.3
2015 293,569 19,750 23,309 (3,435) 3,035 (1,597) (2,754) ‐ 712 (323) 12,181 14,935 5.97 6.73 7.94 4.15 4.97 4.82 0.82 45.28 13.86
2016E 285,701 22,073 26,757 (3,339) 1,448 (1,946) 208 ‐ 799 (574) 14,821 14,612 7.27 7.73 9.37 5.19 5.25 5.46 0.87 49.39 15.35
% YoY (2.7) 11.8 14.8 (2.8) (52.3) 21.8 nm nm 12.2 77.6 21.7 (2.2) 21.7
% YTD 45.2 66.1 64.1 50.0 47.8 54.0 382.7 nm 62.9 35.3 84.2 79.9 84.2
Source: KT ZMICO Research Note: *including stock gain (loss) impact, LCM impact and hedging gain (loss) as the recurring items
Figure 2: TOP’s 2Q16 NP breakdown
2Q16 (A) NP 1Q16 (A) NP 2Q15 (A) NP % QoQ % YoY
TOP
TPX
5,655 2,788 4,791 103% 18%
TLB
752 881 457 ‐15% 65%
TP
Thaioil Solvent
TM
Ethanol
Others
460 502 524 ‐8% ‐12%
441
26
158
(26)
402
48
27
24
219
28
138
(6)
10% 101%
‐46% ‐7%
485% 14%
nm nm
16 18 12 ‐11% 33%
Inter‐ transaction/MI 271
Source: Company, KT ZMICO Research
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 2 of 3
Total 7,753
36
4,726
65
6,228
653% 317%
64% 24%
Note: KT ZMICO has two major shareholders, Krungthai Bank PLC (KTB) and Seamico Securities PLC (ZMICO). Therefore, prior to making investments in the securities of KTB and ZMICO, investors should consider the risk factors carefully. An executive of KT ZMICO Securities is also a board member of BCP, BTC, CI, CPI, KBS, MAJOR, MK, PACE, PSL, SVH, VNG, ZMICO, SAWAD, TFG. A management member of KT ZMICO Securities is also a board member of BTC and NFC. KT ZMICO is a financial advisor for U, LOXLEY, ZMICO, MAKRO, CPALL, SAFARI, PACE, PLE, TPOLY, M‐CHAI. KT ZMICO is a co‐underwriter of ALT, EKH, RJH.
Corporate Governance Report (CGR) Source: Sec, Thai Institute of Directors Association (IOD) Excellent (scores: 90 ‐ 100) Very Good (scores: 80 – 89) Good (scores: 70 – 79)
Satisfactory (scores: 60 – 69) Pass (scores: 50 – 59) No Logo N/A (scores: below 50)
Anti‐corruption Progress Indicator Source: Sec, Thailand's Private Sector Collective Action Coalition Against Corruption programme (Thai CAC)
Level 1 (Committed) : Organization’s statement or board's resolution to work against corruption and to be in compliance with all relevant laws. Level 2 (Declared) : Public declaration statement to participate in Thailand's private sector Collective Action Coalition Against Corruption (CAC) or equivalent initiatives Level 3 (Established) : Public out preventive measures, risk assessment, communication and training for all employees, including consistent monitoring and review processes Level 4 (Certified) : Audit engagement by audit committee or auditors approved by the office of SEC, and receiving certification or assurance by independent external assurance providers (CAC etc.) Level 5 (Extended) : Extension of the anti‐corruption policy to business partners in the supply chain, and disclosure of any current investigations, prosecutions or closed cases Insufficient or not clearly defined policy Data not available / no policy
DISCLAIMER This document is produced using open sources believed to be reliable. However, their accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. The statements and opinions herein were formed after due and careful consideration for use as information for the purposes of investment. The opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. This document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. The use of any information contained in this document shall be at the sole discretion and risk of the user.
KT ZMICO RESEARCH – RECOMMENDATION DEFINITIONS STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS BUY: Expecting positive total returns of 15% or more OVERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's over the next 12 months coverage universe, is expected to outperform the relevant
OUTPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% primary market index by at least 10% over the next 12 months. to +15%; returns expected to exceed market returns NEUTRAL: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage over a six‐month period due to specific catalysts universe, is expected to perform in line with the relevant UNDERPERFORM: Expecting total returns between primary market index over the next 12 months. ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to be below market UNDERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's returns over a six‐month period due to specific coverage universe, is expected to underperform the relevant catalysts primary market index by 10% over the next 12 months. SELL: Expecting negative total returns of 10% or more over the next 12 months
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 3 of 3
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KT•ZMICO Securities Company Limited
st
8 , 15 -17 , 19 , 21 Floor, Liberty Square Bldg., 287 Silom Road, Bangrak, Bangkok 10500 Telephone: (66-2) 695-5000
Phaholyothin Branch
rd
Fax. (66-2) 631-1709
Ploenchit Branch
th
nd
2
Sindhorn Branch
3 Floor, Shinnawatra Tower II,
8 Floor, Ton Son Tower,
1291/1 Phaholyothin Road,
900 Ploenchit Road, Lumpini,
Floor, Sindhorn Tower 1, 130-132 Wireless Road, Lumpini,
Phayathai, Bangkok 10400
Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330
Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330
Telephone: (66-2) 686-1500
Telephone: (66-2) 626-6000
Telephone: (66-2) 627-3550
Fax. (66-2) 686-1666
Fax. (66-2) 626-6111
Fax. (66-2) 627-3582, 627-3600
Nakhon Pathom Branch 1156 Petchakasem Road, Sanamchan Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang , Nakhon Pathom Province 73000 Telephone: (034) 271300 Fax: (034) 271300 #100
Chachoengsao Branch
Viphavadee Branch
Phitsanulok Branch
G Floor, Lao Peng Nguan 1 Bldg.,
Krung Thai Bank, Singhawat Branch
333 Soi Cheypuand, Viphavadee-Rangsit Road,
114 Singhawat Road,
Ladyao, Jatujak, Bangkok 10900
Muang, Phitsanulok 65000
Telephone: (66-2) 618-8500
Telephone: 083-490-2873
Fax. (66-2) 618-8569
th
Chonburi Branch
Pattaya Branch
108/34-36 Mahajakkrapad Road,
4 Floor, Forum Plaza Bldg.,
382/6-8 Moo 9, T. NongPrue,
T.Namuang, A.Muang,
870/52 Sukhumvit Road, T. Bangplasoy,
A. Banglamung, Cholburi 20260
Chachoengsao 24000
A. Muang, Cholburi 20000
Telephone: (038) 362-420-9
Telephone: (038) 813-088
Telephone: (038) 287-635
Fax. (038) 362-430
Fax. (038) 813-099
Fax. (038) 287-637
Khon Kaen Branch
5th Floor, Charoen Thani Princess Hotel,
Hat Yai Branch
Sriworajak Building Branch
200/301 Juldis Hatyai Plaza Floor 3,
1st – 2nd Floor, Sriworajak Building, 222
260 Srichan Road, T. Naimuang,
Niphat-Uthit 3 Rd,
Luang Road, Pomprab,
A. Muang, Khon Kaen 40000
Hatyai Songkhla 90110
Bankgok 10100
Telephone: (043) 389-171-193
Telephone: (074) 355-530-3
Telephone: (02) 689-3100
Fax. (043) 389-209
Fax: (074) 355-534
Fax. (02) 689-3199
Central World Branch
Chiang Mai Branch
Phuket Branch
999/9 The Offices at Central World,
422/49 Changklan Road, Changklan
22/61-63, Luang Por Wat Chalong Road,
16th Fl., Rama 1 Rd, Pathumwan,
Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang,
Talat Yai, Mueang Phuket,
Bangkok 10330
Chiang Mai 50100
Phuket 83000
Telephone: (66-2) 673-5000,
Telephone: (053) 270-072
Tel. (076) 222-811,(076) 222-683
(66-2) 264-5888 Fax. (66-2) 264-5899
Fax: (053) 272-618
Fax. (076) 222-861
Pak Chong Branch
Cyber Branch @ North Nana
173 175, Mittapap Road,
Krung Thai Bank PCL, 2 Floor, North Nana Branch 35 Sukhumvit Rd.,Klong Toey Nua Subdistrict , Wattana District, Bangkok 10110 Telephone: 083-490-2871
Nong Sarai, Pak Chong, Nakhon Ratchasima 30130 Tel. (044) 279-511 Fax. (044) 279-574
Nakhon Ratchasima Branch
Bangkhae Branch
6th Floor The Mall Group Building Bangkhae 275 Moo 1 Petchkasem Road, North Bangkhae, Bangkhae, Bangkok 10160 Tel. (66-2) 454-9979 Fax. (66-2) 454-9970
624/9 Changphuek Road, . Naimaung, A.Maung, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000 Telephone: (044) 247222 Fax: (044) 247171 Information herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its completeness and accuracy are not guaranteed. All opinions expressed constitute our views on that date and are not intended as an offer or solicitation to sell or buy any securities. Investors should exercise care when making a decision to invest in securities. No one may modify or distribute any part of this report unless written permission is first received from Seamico Securities Plc. If any modifications are made, quotes or references taken from the report and the report date must be clearly mentioned and must not cause misunderstanding or damage to the company.
