Thai Oil Underperform (17E TP Bt73.00)
Earnings Review
Close Bt74.75
Energy & Utilities February 16, 2017
Beat forecast / Below forecast / In line
In‐line 2016 NP Price Performance (%)
Source: SET Smart
FY17
FY18
Consensus EPS (Bt)
7.487
7.333
KT ZMICO vs. consensus Share data
‐4.1%
‐6.0%
Reuters / Bloomberg
TOP.BK/TOP TB
Paid‐up Shares (m)
2,040.03
Par (Bt)
10.00
Market cap (Bt bn / US$ m)
152.00/4,356.00
Foreign limit / actual (%)
40.00/22.28
52 week High / Low (Bt)
75.00/55.50
Avg. daily T/O (shares 000)
6,058.00
NVDR (%)
15.82
Estimated free float (%)
50.05
Beta
0.95
URL
www.thaioilgroup.com
2017E earnings momentum capped; long wait for next growth cycle We see no positive catalysts ahead with its 2017E earnings momentum likely to be capped by flat market GIM. Meanwhile, the next wave of the growth cycle will take a long time to realize, particularly in the case of the Clean Fuel Project (upgrading low‐value to high‐value product with more flexible use of heavy crude slate), with its COD target beyond 2021E. Thus, we maintain our Underperform rating on TOP. Soaring 4Q16 NP at Bt5.8bn beat our forecast by 10% TOP reported 4Q16 NP at Bt5.8bn (+55% YoY, +97% QoQ), about 10% better than our estimate with the larger stock gain as the main reason for the difference. Stripping out the forex loss, its core profit stood at Bt6.7bn (+94.5% YoY, +175.5% QoQ), with a higher utilization rate, improving market GIM, particularly QoQ to US$8.0/bbl (vs. US$10.7/bbl in 4Q15 and US$6.7/bbl in 3Q16), and a meaningful Bt3.75bn stock gain as the main drivers in the quarter (vs. stock loss of Bt4.2bn in 4Q15 and stock loss of Bt625mn in 3Q16). Record‐high 2016 NP at Bt21.2bn, close to our forecast It delivered record‐high NP of Bt21.2bn (+74% YoY) and core profit of Bt20.8bn in 2016 (+39% YoY), close to our forecasts. The main catalysts behind the soaring earnings were the higher accounting GIM to US$9.1/bbl in 2016 (vs. US$7.2/bbl in 2015), with the reversal to stock gain of Bt7.2bn (vs. stock loss of Bt5.6bn) as the main catalyst despite the weakening market GIM, mainly weighed down by the refinery’s poor refining margin. Moreover, the commercial kick‐offs of the LAB project and SPP project also made supplementary contributions to its performance in the year. Announced 2H16 DPS of Bt3, implying a 4% dividend yield The company also announced a 2H16 DPS of Bt3, translating to a dividend yield of 4% in the period. It will go XD on 27 Feb 2017, with the payment date on 28 Apr 2017. 2017E earnings estimates maintained We keep our 2017E NP unchanged at Bt14.7bn, with earnings momentum likely to be capped by flat market GIM (with no momentum gained on the refining margin and weakening aromatics spreads, particularly the PX spread on new supply additions), but no stock impact taken into account yet.
CGR Anti‐corruption
Level 4 (Certified)
Patcharin Karsemarnuntana Analyst, no 17834
[email protected] 66 (0) 2695‐5837
Financials and Valuation FY Ended 31 Dec Revenues (Btmn) Net profit (Btmn) EPS (Bt) EPS growth (%) Dividend (Bt) BV (Bt)
2014 390,090 (4,140) (2.03) nm 1.16 40.88
2015 293,569 12,181 5.97 nm 2.70 45.28
2016 274,739 21,222 10.40 74.22 4.50 52.38
2017E 334,911 14,656 7.18 (30.94) 3.23 55.53
2018E 364,049 14,062 6.89 (4.05) 3.10 59.26
FY Ended 31 Dec PER (x) EV/EBITDA (x) PBV (x) Dividend yield (%) ROE (%) Net gearing (%)
2014 nm nm 1.83 1.6% ‐4.7% 40.3%
2015 12.52 7.50 1.65 3.6% 13.9% 24.2%
2016 7.19 5.15 1.43 6.0% 21.3% 14.5%
2017E 10.40 6.31 1.35 4.3% 13.3% 15.0%
2018E 10.84 6.03 1.26 4.1% 12.0% 7.2%
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 1 of 3
Figure 1: TOP’s 4Q16 and 2016 earnings review Profit and Loss (Btmn) Year‐end 31 Dec Revenue Gross profit EBITDA Interest expense Other income Income tax Forex gain (loss) Extraordinary Items Gn (Ls) from affiliates Minority interests Net profit (loss) Core profit (loss)* Reported EPS (Bt) Gross margin (%) EBITDA margin (%) Net margin (%) Current ratio (x) Interest coverage (x) Interest‐bearing debt / equity (x) BVPS (Bt) ROE (%)
4Q15 68,446 4,372 5,114 (659) 1,292 (566) 318 ‐ 118 (66) 3,749 3,431 1.84 6.39 7.47 5.48 4.97 5.03 0.82 45.28 16.55
3Q16 68,476 3,751 5,118 (879) 493 (451) 519 ‐ 243 (105) 2,941 2,422 1.44 5.48 7.47 4.30 3.76 3.55 0.75 49.53 11.64
4Q16 77,104 9,142 10,328 (911) (63) (794) (870) ‐ 184 (57) 5,802 6,673 2.84 11.86 13.39 7.52 3.39 9.13 0.71 52.38 22.33
% YoY 12.6 109.1 102.0 38.3 nm 40.3 nm nm 55.9 (12.7) 54.8 94.5 54.3
% QoQ 12.6 143.7 101.8 3.6 nm 76.0 nm nm (24.3) (45.3) 97.3 175.5 97.2
2015 293,569 19,750 23,309 (3,435) 3,035 (1,597) (2,754) ‐ 712 (323) 12,181 14,935 5.97 6.73 7.94 4.15 4.97 4.82 0.82 45.28 13.86
2016 274,739 27,478 32,606 (3,461) 1,123 (2,295) 446 ‐ 930 (365) 21,222 20,776 10.40 10.00 11.87 7.72 3.39 7.18 0.71 52.38 21.30
Source: KT ZMICO Research Note: *including stock gain (loss) impact as the recurring item
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 2 of 3
% YoY (6.4) 39.1 39.9 0.7 (63.0) 43.7 nm nm 30.5 13.0 74.2 39.1 74.2
Note: KT ZMICO has two major shareholders, Krungthai Bank PLC (KTB) and Seamico Securities PLC (ZMICO). Therefore, prior to making investments in the securities of KTB and ZMICO, investors should consider the risk factors carefully. An executive of KT ZMICO Securities is also a board member of BCP, BTC, CI, CPI, KBS, MAJOR, MK, PACE, PSL, SVH, VNG, ZMICO, SAWAD, TFG. A management member of KT ZMICO Securities is also a board member of BTC and NFC. KT ZMICO is a financial advisor for U, LOXLEY, ZMICO, MAKRO, CPALL, SAFARI, M‐CHAI, TFD. KT ZMICO is a co underwriter of RPH.
Corporate Governance Report (CGR) Source: Sec, Thai Institute of Directors Association (IOD) Excellent (scores: 90 ‐ 100) Very Good (scores: 80 – 89) Good (scores: 70 – 79)
Satisfactory (scores: 60 – 69) Pass (scores: 50 – 59) No Logo N/A (scores: below 50)
Anti‐corruption Progress Indicator Source: Sec, Thailand's Private Sector Collective Action Coalition Against Corruption programme (Thai CAC)
Level 1 (Committed) : Organization’s statement or board's resolution to work against corruption and to be in compliance with all relevant laws. Level 2 (Declared) : Public declaration statement to participate in Thailand's private sector Collective Action Coalition Against Corruption (CAC) or equivalent initiatives Level 3 (Established) : Public out preventive measures, risk assessment, communication and training for all employees, including consistent monitoring and review processes Level 4 (Certified) : Audit engagement by audit committee or auditors approved by the office of SEC, and receiving certification or assurance by independent external assurance providers (CAC etc.) Level 5 (Extended) : Extension of the anti‐corruption policy to business partners in the supply chain, and disclosure of any current investigations, prosecutions or closed cases Insufficient or not clearly defined policy Data not available / no policy
DISCLAIMER This document is produced using open sources believed to be reliable. However, their accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. The statements and opinions herein were formed after due and careful consideration for use as information for the purposes of investment. The opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. This document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. The use of any information contained in this document shall be at the sole discretion and risk of the user.
KT ZMICO RESEARCH – RECOMMENDATION DEFINITIONS STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS BUY: Expecting positive total returns of 15% or more OVERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's over the next 12 months coverage universe, is expected to outperform the relevant primary market index by at least 10% over the next 12 months. OUTPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to exceed market returns NEUTRAL: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage over a six‐month period due to specific catalysts
universe, is expected to perform in line with the relevant UNDERPERFORM: Expecting total returns between primary market index over the next 12 months. ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to be below market UNDERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's returns over a six‐month period due to specific coverage universe, is expected to underperform the relevant catalysts primary market index by 10% over the next 12 months. SELL: Expecting negative total returns of 10% or more over the next 12 months
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 3 of 3
KT ZMICO Securities Company Limited Head Office
WWW.KTZMICO.COM
8th, 15th‐17th,19th, 21st Floor, Liberty Square Bldg., 287 Silom Road, Bangrak, Bangkok, Thailand 10500 Telephone: (66‐2) 695‐5000 Fax: (66‐2) 695‐5173 KT ZMICO Connect 662 695 5555
Central World Branch
Amarin Branch
22nd Floor, Amarin Building, 496‐502 Ploenchit Road, Lumpini, Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330 Telephone: (66‐2) 018‐6200 Fax: (66‐2) 018‐6298, (66‐2) 018‐6299
8th Floor, Ton Son Tower, 900 Ploenchit Road, Lumpini, Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330 Telephone: (66‐2) 626‐6000 Fax: (66‐2) 626‐6111
Phaholyothin Branch
Sindhorn Branch
Viphavadee Branch
2nd Floor, Sindhorn Tower 1, 130‐132 Wireless Road, Lumpini, Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330 Telephone: (66‐2) 627‐3550 Fax: (66‐2) 627‐3582, 627‐3600
G Floor, Lao Peng Nguan 1 Bldg., 333 Soi Cheypuand, Viphavadee‐Rangsit Road, Ladyao, Jatujak, Bangkok 10900 Telephone: (66‐2) 013‐8600 Fax: (66‐2) 618‐8569
BangKhae Branch
Chiang Mai Branch
Pak Chong Branch
999/9 The Offices at Central World, 16th Fl., Rama 1 Rd, Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330 Telephone: (66‐2) 264‐5888 Fax: (66‐2) 264 5899
1291/1, Shinnawatra Tower II, 3rd Floor, Phaholyothin Road, Phayathai, Bangkok 10400 Telephone: (66‐2) 686‐1500 Fax: (66‐2) 686‐1666
Ploenchit Branch
518 The Mall Group Building Bangkhae Branch, 6th Floor, Petchkasem Road, North Bangkhae, Bangkhae, Bangkok 10160 Telephone: (66‐2) 454‐9979 Fax: (66‐2) 454‐9970
422/49 Changklan Road, Changklan Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang, Chiang Mai 50100 Telephone: (053) 270‐072 Fax: (053) 272‐618
173 175, Mittapap Road, Nong Sarai, Pak Chong, Nakhon Ratchasima 30130 Telephone: (044) 279‐511 Fax: (044) 279‐574
Korat Branch
Khon Kaen Branch
Chonburi Branch
624/9 Changphuek Road, T.Naimaung, A.Maung, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000 Telephone: (044) 247222 Fax: (044) 247171
5th Floor, Charoen Thani Princess Hotel, 260 Srichan Road, T. Naimuang, A. Muang, Khon Kaen 40000 Telephone: (043) 389‐171‐193 Fax: (043) 389‐209
4th Floor, Forum Plaza Bldg., 870/52 Sukhumvit Road, T. Bangplasoy, A. Muang, Cholburi 20000 Telephone: (038) 287‐635 Fax: (038) 287‐637
Pattaya Branch
Chachoengsao Branch
Hat Yai Branch
Easy Point 2, 392/65 Moo.9, T.Nong Prue, A. Bang Lamung, Chonburi 20260 Telephone: (038) 420‐965 Fax: (038) 420‐968
108/34‐36 Mahajakkrapad Road, T.Namuang, A.Muang, Chachoengsao 24000 Telephone: (038) 813‐088 Fax: (038) 813‐099
200/301, 200/303 JULDIS HATYAI PLAZA Floor 3 , Niphat‐Uthit 3 Rd, Hatyai Songkhla 90110 Telephone: (074) 355530‐3 Fax: (074) 355534
Phuket Branch
22/61‐63, Luang Por Wat Chalong Road, Talat Yai, Mueang Phuket, Phuket 83000 Telephone: (076) 222‐811, (076) 222‐683 Fax: (076) 222‐861
Phitsanulok Branch
227/171 Borom Trilokkanat Road, Muang, Phitsanulok 65000 Telephone: 055‐219‐255 to 8 Fax: 055‐219‐259
Nakhon Pathom
Cyber Branch Ayutthaya
Cyber Branch @ North Nana
Cyber Branch Chiangrai
KrungThai Bank, Rojana Branch 253 Moo 5, Rojana Road, Phai Ling, Phra Nakhon Si Ayutthaya, Phra Nakhonsi Ayutthaya, 13000 Telephone: 035‐242‐477 Fax: 035‐242‐476
Krung Thai Bank PCL, 2 Floor, North Nana Branch 35 Sukhumvit Rd., Klong Toey Nua Subdistrict , Wattana District , Bangkok 10110 Telephone: 083‐490‐2871
River Hotel (Building 3rd),1156 Petchakasem Road, Sanamchan Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang , Nakhon Pathom Province 73000 Telephone: (034) 271300 Fax: (034) 271300 #100
KrungThai Bank, Hayaek Phokhun Mengrai Branch 116/19 Moo 19, Highway 110 Road, Rop Wiang, Mueang Chiang Rai, Chiang Rai, 57000 Telephone: 053‐715‐067 Fax: 053‐715‐068