Thank you for coming!!!
2005 ANNUAL FORUM ON ENERGY & SUSTAINABILITY BP Chair on Sustainable development Universidad Pontificia Comillas de Madrid
Towards a sustainable energy model: Our short-term challenges Ignacio J. Pérez-Arriaga Director of the BP Chair on Sustainable Development El Paular, 6 to 8 November 2005
Thank you for coming!!!
BP Chair of Sustainable Development - Presentation /6/05 - 2
The focus of the Forum 2005 • The current path of world energy production & consumption, even with presently expected policy measures, is not sustainable ¾Environmental impact ¾Access to lasting, dependable & affordable energy sources ¾Disparity of levels of energy consumption
• Some sort of “normative approach” may be needed to redress policy measures towards a sustainable path ÎWhat are our short-term challenges? BP Chair of Sustainable Development - Presentation /6/05 - 3
The components of a sustainable energy system • Lasting, dependable & affordable access to primary energy sources • Adequate capacity of infrastructures & security of delivery • Sustainable environmental impact • Adequate economic development. Issues: ¾ Impact of environmental regulation on competitiveness ¾ Questionability of endless growth
• Reasonably fair universal access to modern forms of energy supply BP Chair of Sustainable Development - Presentation /6/05 - 4
CONCLUSIONS of the SESSA project WP7: “Investment for sustainability” (Brussels, September 9, 2005)
BP Chair of Sustainable Development - Presentation /6/05 - 5
General recommendations (i)
1. 2. 3.
4.
The lack of sustainability of our energy model will require strong changes in energy consumption & production patterns in the medium & long term Î Move up energy in the political agenda Rally public opinion around one major issue: the fight against climate change Use a normative approach to establish specific longterm targets & guidelines to get there & check the consistency of any proposed package of measures with the long-term targets Precautionary strategy: favor a multiplicity of approaches BP Chair of Sustainable Development - Presentation /6/05 - 6
General recommendations (ii) 5.
6.
7.
Reconcile markets & public policy by making clear strategic choices, removing uncertainties, using market mechanisms whenever possible & correct market failures whenever needed Reduce regulatory uncertainty by a credible commitment of governments & regulators to longterm guidelines & targets Policies affecting the energy sector should be made more consistent & harmonized at EU level (emission allowances allocation, support to renewables, biofuels, strategy for acquisition of gas, etc.), while trying to find
the
right equilibrium between regulatory measures adopted at MS & EU-levels BP Chair of Sustainable Development - Presentation /6/05 - 7
General recommendations (iii) 8.
9.
Incorporate all countries to the solution: engage in “environmental diplomacy” ¾
Nothing substantial can be achieved without the cooperation of the major players, as the USA
¾
Maintain strong relationship with fuel-supplying countries
¾
New aid strategies to facilitate energy access to deprived populations
It is necessary to educate & communicate better, open a public debate on the energy model & promote a radical change in attitudes towards a responsible use of energy BP Chair of Sustainable Development - Presentation /6/05 - 8
The gap between the “expected future” & the “acceptable future”
BP Chair of Sustainable Development - Presentation /6/05 - 9
World energy consumption 2003 114 000 TWh Oil Natural gas
Hydro Wind Coal
Nuclear
BP Chair of Sustainable Development - Presentation /6/05 - 10
World electricity production 2003 16 700 TWh Oil Natural gas
Coal
Hydro Other
Wind power 90 TWh, 0,5 %
Nuclear
BP Chair of Sustainable Development - Presentation /6/05 - 11
EU-15 energy consumption 2003 17 500 TWh (15% of world) Oil Natural gas
Hydro Wind Coal
Nuclear
BP Chair of Sustainable Development - Presentation /6/05 - 12
Population growth
1804 1927 1959 1974 1986 1999 2004 2020
1 billion 2 billion 3 billion 4 billion 5 billion 6 billion 6.3 billion 8 billion ?
The annual growth rate was approx. 0.5% until 1900, rose to 1 % in 1925, and peaked at 2.1 % in 1964. Today’s rate is 1.2% and dropping
By 2100: global temperature will rise by 1.4 – 5.8 ° C and 2 – 6.3 ° C in Europe (EEA, 2004)
World primary energy consumption by energy source (baseline scenario)
Source: IEA, World Energy Outlook 2004
Fossil fuels account for 90% of growth in energy demand between now and 2030
Electricity generation in baseline scenario 100.0 11.9 90.0 80.0 70.0
1.7 10.5 8.1
Wind
Hydro and others
7.1 9.1 2.0
Biomass Gas Oil
36.8 60.0 34.6 50.0
Solids
0.9
40.0 26.7 30.0
Nuclear
20.0 33.1
17.4
10.0 0.0 1995
2000
2010
2020
2030
Investment Implications (source IEA, 2003) • Increase in global energy supply calls for cumulative infrastructure investment of $16 trillion over the period 2003 – 2030 • Electricity sector will absorb almost $10 trillion • Oil and gas sectors will each amount to almost $ 3 trillion
• Developing countries will require almost $8 trillion • China alone will need to invest $2.4 trillion • Africa needs $1,1 trillion • Middle East needs $1 trillion
BP Chair of Sustainable Development - Presentation /6/05 - 18
Regional Shares in World Energy Demand
Source: IEA, WEO 2004
World Energy-Related CO2 Emissions 20 000
Mt of CO2
16 000 12 000 8 000 4 000 0 1970 1980 1990 OECD
2000 2010 2020 2030
Transition economies
Developing countries
Global emissions grow 62% between 2002 & 2030, and developing countries’ emissions will overtake OECD’s in the 2020s BP Chair of Sustainable Development - Presentation /6/05 - 20
European Climate Change Programme (ECCP) Objectives • Objective: Identify & develop cost effective elements of EC strategy • European Spring Council 2005 wants to “consider mid and longer term strategies, including targets” ¾ Council has specified this objective as a limit of no more than 2°C to the temperature increase
• EU measures for 276 to 316 CO2eq/year are presently under implementation (see table) ¾ And further measures are being identified BP Chair of Sustainable Development - Presentation /6/05 - 21
ECCP: Most important EU legislation in implementation relating to climate change Policies and Measures
Reduction potential (Mt CO2-eq.)
Entry into force
Starting to deliver
EU emission trading scheme
-
2003
2005
Link JI/CDM to emission trading
-
2004
2005/ 2008
Revision of the Monitoring Decision
-
2004
-
65
2004
2006
Directive on energy performance of buildings
35-45
2003
2006
Directive on the promotion of transport bio-fuels
35-40
2003
2005
100-125
2001
2003
41
1999
2000
ACEA voluntary agreement
75-80
1998
1999
Energy labelling directives
20
1992
1993
Directive on the promotion of CHP
Directive on the promotion of electricity from renewable energy sources Landfill directive
OECD CO2 Emissions in the Reference and Alternative Scenarios 16 000
Mt of CO 2
15 000
14 000
13 000
12 000
11 000 1990
2000 Reference Scenario
2010
2020
2030
Alternative Scenario
OECD CO2 emissions peak around 2020, 25% higher than in 1990 BP Chair of Sustainable Development - Presentation /6/05 - 23
Impact of environmental policies on GHG emissions in the EU-15
BP Chair of Sustainable Development - Presentation /6/05 - 24
The 2°C challenge and the required cut in global emissions 80
GHG Emissions (GtCO2-eq)
70
Baseline
60 50 40
S650e
30
S550e 20 10 0 1970
1990
2010
2030
2050
2070
Source: GCNRS/LEPII-EPE/RIVM/MNP/ICCS-NTUA/CES-KUL study
•By 2025, global reductions of 15 to 30 % from baseline are required, respectively in S650e and S550e •By 2050, these reductions reach 35 to 65 %
The Risk to overshoot 2°C
2090
Economic implications
• Two “reduction profiles” that meet the 2°C target have been defined, for the set of the 6 GHG: ¾ S550e for a stabilization of concentrations at 550 ppmv CO2e for the 6 Kyoto GHGs (corresponding to 450 ppmv for CO2 only) ¾ S650e for a stabilization at 650 ppmv CO2e
• In 2025, the total cost of achieving the corresponding reductions in CO2e emissions represents 0.7-0.9% of world GDP in S650e and 1.9-2.8% in S550e
BP Chair of Sustainable Development - Presentation /6/05 - 27
Global oil; all supplies 1930-2050
Thousands of barrels of oil per day
100000 90000
LIQUIDS GAP CNG, LNG, FT-GTL, biomass, other replacement strategies. Reduce through energy efficiency and energy conservation?
DEEPWATER OIL (OPEC and non-OPEC)
80000 REFINERY GAIN
70000 60000
OIL SANDS
50000 NON-OPEC OIL
40000 30000 20000
OPEC OIL
10000 0 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Year
Exxon: by 2015 we find 0.8 of every 10 barrel we consume today ‘Plan now for a world without oil’ (FT 01/2004)
Will EU-25 achieve its targets in 2010? Target 2010
Likely achievement BAU
With additional existing policies
RES-E
21%
18-19%
22-24%
RES-H
No % target Currently at 11%
12%
15%*
Biofuels
5.75%
~2-3%
~5%
RES total
12%
8-9%
11-12%
Key challenges for EU (world) energy R&D Global energy demand predicted to increase by 60% over the next 30 years
z
EU energy dependence could rise from 50% to 70% by 2030; damaging volatility of oil prices and geopolitical instability
z
Over 90% of EU CO2 emissions, causing climate change, are attributable to energy
z
Global energy investments of €12 trillion required up to 2030 – huge market potential, but EU under severe threat from global competitors
z
BP Chair of Sustainable Development - Presentation /6/05 - 30
EU RTD PRIORITIES 100 90 80
Coordination & development
Energy
Training of researchers 70
%
Dissemination & exploitation
60
International cooperation
50
Socio-economic Transport
40
Energy 30
Life sciences
20
Environment
10
Industrial & materials technology IT and Communications
0 FP1
FP2
FP3
FP4
FP5
FP6
Human development index and per capita energy
LINK ENERGY - POVERTY
consumption
• As a consequence, the more development the more per capita consumption (8520 kWh/year vs. 1022 for medium vs. 218 for low)
Electricity deprivation in the reference case IEA WEO 2004
BP Chair of Sustainable Development - Presentation /6/05 - 33
Primary Energy Consumption Per Capita, 2030
Source: IEA, WEO 2004
DAC ODA
Bilateral and multilateral aid
• Fluctuation between years both in quantity and type (more multilateral than bilateral) • Total mean value is about 5400 MUS $ • Bilateral is 2560 (6.5 % of total ODA)
The outcome of prospective evaluation Main threats & challenges of the “current policies” scenarios ¾Strong dependence on imports (OCDE) ¾Increasing carbon emissions ¾Poor penetration of renewables, despite growth ¾Need to improve energy efficiency & saving, mostly in transport & building sectors ¾Lack of a strategic choice of a sustainable baseload generation of electricity in the medium/long term: advanced nuclear? renewables? ¾Poor performance providing universal access BP Chair of Sustainable Development - Presentation /6/05 - 36
Is there any plan that could take us to a more sustainable path?
BP Chair of Sustainable Development - Presentation /6/05 - 37
Example 1: “A Full Policy Options Case” (P. Kapros & L. Mantzos, NTUA)
• A policy package that combines ¾ Extensive support for acceleration of renewables ¾ Standards and measures for high energy efficiency ¾ Accepted advanced nuclear technology ¾ New standards and fuels for transports
delivers high performance in all objectives, except the need for higher investment expenditures, significant stranded costs and higher energy prices ¾ It curbs carbon emissions at -25% in 2030 from 1990 level ¾ One third of energy comes from carbon free sources in 2030 ¾ It restores import dependency to 55% in 2030, instead of more than 70% in the baseline ¾ Considerably improves impact indicators from transports ¾ Still it needs abundant gas: 2.5 times more than in 2000 BP Chair of Sustainable Development - Presentation /6/05 - 38
Example 2: The magnitude of the effort (the “wedges” of R. Socolow et al., Princeton University)
• In order to avoid doubling of the pre-industrial CO2 concentration during the next century, a monumental mitigation effort needs to start now ¾ 7 “wedges” are needed to stabilize CO2 at 500 ppm (about double the pre-industrial figure) ¾ Wedge: 50 years of mitigation activity growing linearly from zero in 2004 to 1 Gton of carbon per year in 2054 ¾ Examples of wedges: – 2 million 1 MW wind generators – 800 coal plants where CO2 is captured – 2000 million vehicles achieving 60 miles per gallon instead of 30 mpg BP Chair of Sustainable Development - Presentation /6/05 - 39
Example 3: “Energy revolution” (Greenpeace, 2005)
“Energy revolution” (Greenpeace, 2005)
“Energy revolution” (Greenpeace, 2005)
Mid-term realisable potential for RES-E in EU-27 (source: EU Commission) Share of total RES-E potential on gross electricity consumption 2020 (BAU scenario-Energy and Transport Outlook) FI NO
SE
> 70%
EE RU
LA
DK
70-60%
LT UK
NL BE
PL
DE
50-40% CZ
LU FR
UA
SK AT HU SI HR
CH
BA IT
40-30%
MD RO
30-20%
BL
20-10%
FY MK
PT
60-50 %
BY
IE
ES
< 10%
GR
TR
MT CY
Electricity generation: 2001-2040
40000
100% 35000
Marine
100% 82%
30000
Geo thermal Solar thermal
TWh
25000
100%
20000 15000
PV Wind
100%
55%
Bio-mass
100%
Small Hydro
5000 19% 0 2001
Hydro
34%
10000
Total demand
22%
2010
2020
2030
2040
Source : IEA BP Chair of Sustainable Development - Presentation /6/05 - 44
Other examples • Center for European Policy Studies (CEPS), “Towards a global climate regime: Priority areas for a coherent EU strategy”, May 2005 • World Business Council for Sustainable Development, “Facts & trends to 2050: Energy & climate change”, 2004 • WWF & Wuppertal Institute, “Policies & measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in the EU”, September 2005
BP Chair of Sustainable Development - Presentation /6/05 - 45
Our short-term challenges
BP Chair of Sustainable Development - Presentation /6/05 - 46
The elements for a potentially successful energy policy • Promotion of renewable energy sources • Programs to curb energy consumption & to promote energy efficiency • Keep all energy options open • Promotion of long-term R+D in energy field • Direct measures of limitation of emission of greenhouse gases & contaminants • Environmental diplomacy • Cooperation with developing countries to eradicate energy poverty • Education efforts to create a global conscience • Regulatory measures to make compatible the liberalization of the energy sector & adequate infrastructure investment BP Chair of Sustainable Development - Presentation /6/05 - 47
The need for normative evaluation
Î Main guidelines for action • Specific targets & policies to achieve desired results are needed as soon as possible ¾Combined effect of some or all of the following policies with a level of effort that measures up to the challenge
ÎEU (world ¿?) would need to agree on a strategic normative scenario, since a deep structural change requires a secure planning horizon to allow a smoother transition process for both the public and the private sector BP Chair of Sustainable Development - Presentation /6/05 - 48
The program of the 2005 Forum
BP Chair of Sustainable Development - Presentation /6/05 - 49
Sunday November 6 evening:
Global energy perspectives • Sustainability problems of the present energy model & identification of plausible scenarios. The case of the EU
• Global long-term perspectives on energy & sustainability
BP Chair of Sustainable Development - Presentation /6/05 - 50
Monday November 7 & morning November 8:
The available policy actions • Remove barriers & apply measures for a significant penetration of renewable energy sources • Establish the role of nuclear energy in the short / medium & long term • The contribution of technology • Energy efficiency & conservation • Cooperation schemes to provide universal access to modern energy sources BP Chair of Sustainable Development - Presentation /6/05 - 51
Tuesday November 8 morning:
Our short-term challenges • A meaningful package of energy policy measures for the short & medium term
Afternoon (at the University): • Presentation of the summary & conclusions of the Forum • Conference on “Geopolitics of oil & gas” by Prof. Jean Marie Chevalier
BP Chair of Sustainable Development - Presentation /6/05 - 52
Towards a sustainable energy model: Our short-term challenges Ignacio J. Pérez-Arriaga Director of the BP Chair on Sustainable Development El Paular, 6 to 8 November 2005
Thank you for coming!!!
BP Chair of Sustainable Development - Presentation /6/05 - 2
The focus of the Forum 2005 • The current path of world energy production & consumption, even with presently expected policy measures, is not sustainable ¾Environmental impact ¾Access to lasting, dependable & affordable energy sources ¾Disparity of levels of energy consumption
• Some sort of “normative approach” may be needed to redress policy measures towards a sustainable path ÎWhat are our short-term challenges? BP Chair of Sustainable Development - Presentation /6/05 - 3
The components of a sustainable energy system • Lasting, dependable & affordable access to primary energy sources • Adequate capacity of infrastructures & security of delivery • Sustainable environmental impact • Adequate economic development. Issues: ¾ Impact of environmental regulation on competitiveness ¾ Questionability of endless growth
• Reasonably fair universal access to modern forms of energy supply BP Chair of Sustainable Development - Presentation /6/05 - 4
CONCLUSIONS of the SESSA project WP7: “Investment for sustainability” (Brussels, September 9, 2005)
BP Chair of Sustainable Development - Presentation /6/05 - 5
General recommendations (i)
1. 2. 3.
4.
The lack of sustainability of our energy model will require strong changes in energy consumption & production patterns in the medium & long term Î Move up energy in the political agenda Rally public opinion around one major issue: the fight against climate change Use a normative approach to establish specific longterm targets & guidelines to get there & check the consistency of any proposed package of measures with the long-term targets Precautionary strategy: favor a multiplicity of approaches BP Chair of Sustainable Development - Presentation /6/05 - 6
General recommendations (ii) 5.
6.
7.
Reconcile markets & public policy by making clear strategic choices, removing uncertainties, using market mechanisms whenever possible & correct market failures whenever needed Reduce regulatory uncertainty by a credible commitment of governments & regulators to longterm guidelines & targets Policies affecting the energy sector should be made more consistent & harmonized at EU level (emission allowances allocation, support to renewables, biofuels, strategy for acquisition of gas, etc.), while trying to find
the
right equilibrium between regulatory measures adopted at MS & EU-levels BP Chair of Sustainable Development - Presentation /6/05 - 7
General recommendations (iii) 8.
9.
Incorporate all countries to the solution: engage in “environmental diplomacy” ¾
Nothing substantial can be achieved without the cooperation of the major players, as the USA
¾
Maintain strong relationship with fuel-supplying countries
¾
New aid strategies to facilitate energy access to deprived populations
It is necessary to educate & communicate better, open a public debate on the energy model & promote a radical change in attitudes towards a responsible use of energy BP Chair of Sustainable Development - Presentation /6/05 - 8
The gap between the “expected future” & the “acceptable future”
BP Chair of Sustainable Development - Presentation /6/05 - 9
World energy consumption 2003 114 000 TWh Oil Natural gas
Hydro Wind Coal
Nuclear
BP Chair of Sustainable Development - Presentation /6/05 - 10
World electricity production 2003 16 700 TWh Oil Natural gas
Coal
Hydro Other
Wind power 90 TWh, 0,5 %
Nuclear
BP Chair of Sustainable Development - Presentation /6/05 - 11
EU-15 energy consumption 2003 17 500 TWh (15% of world) Oil Natural gas
Hydro Wind Coal
Nuclear
BP Chair of Sustainable Development - Presentation /6/05 - 12
Population growth
1804 1927 1959 1974 1986 1999 2004 2020
1 billion 2 billion 3 billion 4 billion 5 billion 6 billion 6.3 billion 8 billion ?
The annual growth rate was approx. 0.5% until 1900, rose to 1 % in 1925, and peaked at 2.1 % in 1964. Today’s rate is 1.2% and dropping
By 2100: global temperature will rise by 1.4 – 5.8 ° C and 2 – 6.3 ° C in Europe (EEA, 2004)
World primary energy consumption by energy source (baseline scenario)
Source: IEA, World Energy Outlook 2004
Fossil fuels account for 90% of growth in energy demand between now and 2030
Electricity generation in baseline scenario 100.0 11.9 90.0 80.0 70.0
1.7 10.5 8.1
Wind
Hydro and others
7.1 9.1 2.0
Biomass Gas Oil
36.8 60.0 34.6 50.0
Solids
0.9
40.0 26.7 30.0
Nuclear
20.0 33.1
17.4
10.0 0.0 1995
2000
2010
2020
2030
Investment Implications (source IEA, 2003) • Increase in global energy supply calls for cumulative infrastructure investment of $16 trillion over the period 2003 – 2030 • Electricity sector will absorb almost $10 trillion • Oil and gas sectors will each amount to almost $ 3 trillion
• Developing countries will require almost $8 trillion • China alone will need to invest $2.4 trillion • Africa needs $1,1 trillion • Middle East needs $1 trillion
BP Chair of Sustainable Development - Presentation /6/05 - 18
Regional Shares in World Energy Demand
Source: IEA, WEO 2004
World Energy-Related CO2 Emissions 20 000
Mt of CO2
16 000 12 000 8 000 4 000 0 1970 1980 1990 OECD
2000 2010 2020 2030
Transition economies
Developing countries
Global emissions grow 62% between 2002 & 2030, and developing countries’ emissions will overtake OECD’s in the 2020s BP Chair of Sustainable Development - Presentation /6/05 - 20
European Climate Change Programme (ECCP) Objectives • Objective: Identify & develop cost effective elements of EC strategy • European Spring Council 2005 wants to “consider mid and longer term strategies, including targets” ¾ Council has specified this objective as a limit of no more than 2°C to the temperature increase
• EU measures for 276 to 316 CO2eq/year are presently under implementation (see table) ¾ And further measures are being identified BP Chair of Sustainable Development - Presentation /6/05 - 21
ECCP: Most important EU legislation in implementation relating to climate change Policies and Measures
Reduction potential (Mt CO2-eq.)
Entry into force
Starting to deliver
EU emission trading scheme
-
2003
2005
Link JI/CDM to emission trading
-
2004
2005/ 2008
Revision of the Monitoring Decision
-
2004
-
65
2004
2006
Directive on energy performance of buildings
35-45
2003
2006
Directive on the promotion of transport bio-fuels
35-40
2003
2005
100-125
2001
2003
41
1999
2000
ACEA voluntary agreement
75-80
1998
1999
Energy labelling directives
20
1992
1993
Directive on the promotion of CHP
Directive on the promotion of electricity from renewable energy sources Landfill directive
OECD CO2 Emissions in the Reference and Alternative Scenarios 16 000
Mt of CO 2
15 000
14 000
13 000
12 000
11 000 1990
2000 Reference Scenario
2010
2020
2030
Alternative Scenario
OECD CO2 emissions peak around 2020, 25% higher than in 1990 BP Chair of Sustainable Development - Presentation /6/05 - 23
Impact of environmental policies on GHG emissions in the EU-15
BP Chair of Sustainable Development - Presentation /6/05 - 24
The 2°C challenge and the required cut in global emissions 80
GHG Emissions (GtCO2-eq)
70
Baseline
60 50 40
S650e
30
S550e 20 10 0 1970
1990
2010
2030
2050
2070
Source: GCNRS/LEPII-EPE/RIVM/MNP/ICCS-NTUA/CES-KUL study
•By 2025, global reductions of 15 to 30 % from baseline are required, respectively in S650e and S550e •By 2050, these reductions reach 35 to 65 %
The Risk to overshoot 2°C
2090
Economic implications
• Two “reduction profiles” that meet the 2°C target have been defined, for the set of the 6 GHG: ¾ S550e for a stabilization of concentrations at 550 ppmv CO2e for the 6 Kyoto GHGs (corresponding to 450 ppmv for CO2 only) ¾ S650e for a stabilization at 650 ppmv CO2e
• In 2025, the total cost of achieving the corresponding reductions in CO2e emissions represents 0.7-0.9% of world GDP in S650e and 1.9-2.8% in S550e
BP Chair of Sustainable Development - Presentation /6/05 - 27
Global oil; all supplies 1930-2050
Thousands of barrels of oil per day
100000 90000
LIQUIDS GAP CNG, LNG, FT-GTL, biomass, other replacement strategies. Reduce through energy efficiency and energy conservation?
DEEPWATER OIL (OPEC and non-OPEC)
80000 REFINERY GAIN
70000 60000
OIL SANDS
50000 NON-OPEC OIL
40000 30000 20000
OPEC OIL
10000 0 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Year
Exxon: by 2015 we find 0.8 of every 10 barrel we consume today ‘Plan now for a world without oil’ (FT 01/2004)
Will EU-25 achieve its targets in 2010? Target 2010
Likely achievement BAU
With additional existing policies
RES-E
21%
18-19%
22-24%
RES-H
No % target Currently at 11%
12%
15%*
Biofuels
5.75%
~2-3%
~5%
RES total
12%
8-9%
11-12%
Key challenges for EU (world) energy R&D Global energy demand predicted to increase by 60% over the next 30 years
z
EU energy dependence could rise from 50% to 70% by 2030; damaging volatility of oil prices and geopolitical instability
z
Over 90% of EU CO2 emissions, causing climate change, are attributable to energy
z
Global energy investments of €12 trillion required up to 2030 – huge market potential, but EU under severe threat from global competitors
z
BP Chair of Sustainable Development - Presentation /6/05 - 30
EU RTD PRIORITIES 100 90 80
Coordination & development
Energy
Training of researchers 70
%
Dissemination & exploitation
60
International cooperation
50
Socio-economic Transport
40
Energy 30
Life sciences
20
Environment
10
Industrial & materials technology IT and Communications
0 FP1
FP2
FP3
FP4
FP5
FP6
Human development index and per capita energy
LINK ENERGY - POVERTY
consumption
• As a consequence, the more development the more per capita consumption (8520 kWh/year vs. 1022 for medium vs. 218 for low)
Electricity deprivation in the reference case IEA WEO 2004
BP Chair of Sustainable Development - Presentation /6/05 - 33
Primary Energy Consumption Per Capita, 2030
Source: IEA, WEO 2004
DAC ODA
Bilateral and multilateral aid
• Fluctuation between years both in quantity and type (more multilateral than bilateral) • Total mean value is about 5400 MUS $ • Bilateral is 2560 (6.5 % of total ODA)
The outcome of prospective evaluation Main threats & challenges of the “current policies” scenarios ¾Strong dependence on imports (OCDE) ¾Increasing carbon emissions ¾Poor penetration of renewables, despite growth ¾Need to improve energy efficiency & saving, mostly in transport & building sectors ¾Lack of a strategic choice of a sustainable baseload generation of electricity in the medium/long term: advanced nuclear? renewables? ¾Poor performance providing universal access BP Chair of Sustainable Development - Presentation /6/05 - 36
Is there any plan that could take us to a more sustainable path?
BP Chair of Sustainable Development - Presentation /6/05 - 37
Example 1: “A Full Policy Options Case” (P. Kapros & L. Mantzos, NTUA)
• A policy package that combines ¾ Extensive support for acceleration of renewables ¾ Standards and measures for high energy efficiency ¾ Accepted advanced nuclear technology ¾ New standards and fuels for transports
delivers high performance in all objectives, except the need for higher investment expenditures, significant stranded costs and higher energy prices ¾ It curbs carbon emissions at -25% in 2030 from 1990 level ¾ One third of energy comes from carbon free sources in 2030 ¾ It restores import dependency to 55% in 2030, instead of more than 70% in the baseline ¾ Considerably improves impact indicators from transports ¾ Still it needs abundant gas: 2.5 times more than in 2000 BP Chair of Sustainable Development - Presentation /6/05 - 38
Example 2: The magnitude of the effort (the “wedges” of R. Socolow et al., Princeton University)
• In order to avoid doubling of the pre-industrial CO2 concentration during the next century, a monumental mitigation effort needs to start now ¾ 7 “wedges” are needed to stabilize CO2 at 500 ppm (about double the pre-industrial figure) ¾ Wedge: 50 years of mitigation activity growing linearly from zero in 2004 to 1 Gton of carbon per year in 2054 ¾ Examples of wedges: – 2 million 1 MW wind generators – 800 coal plants where CO2 is captured – 2000 million vehicles achieving 60 miles per gallon instead of 30 mpg BP Chair of Sustainable Development - Presentation /6/05 - 39
Example 3: “Energy revolution” (Greenpeace, 2005)
“Energy revolution” (Greenpeace, 2005)
“Energy revolution” (Greenpeace, 2005)
Mid-term realisable potential for RES-E in EU-27 (source: EU Commission) Share of total RES-E potential on gross electricity consumption 2020 (BAU scenario-Energy and Transport Outlook) FI NO
SE
> 70%
EE RU
LA
DK
70-60%
LT UK
NL BE
PL
DE
50-40% CZ
LU FR
UA
SK AT HU SI HR
CH
BA IT
40-30%
MD RO
30-20%
BL
20-10%
FY MK
PT
60-50 %
BY
IE
ES
< 10%
GR
TR
MT CY
Electricity generation: 2001-2040
40000
100% 35000
Marine
100% 82%
30000
Geo thermal Solar thermal
TWh
25000
100%
20000 15000
PV Wind
100%
55%
Bio-mass
100%
Small Hydro
5000 19% 0 2001
Hydro
34%
10000
Total demand
22%
2010
2020
2030
2040
Source : IEA BP Chair of Sustainable Development - Presentation /6/05 - 44
Other examples • Center for European Policy Studies (CEPS), “Towards a global climate regime: Priority areas for a coherent EU strategy”, May 2005 • World Business Council for Sustainable Development, “Facts & trends to 2050: Energy & climate change”, 2004 • WWF & Wuppertal Institute, “Policies & measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in the EU”, September 2005
BP Chair of Sustainable Development - Presentation /6/05 - 45
Our short-term challenges
BP Chair of Sustainable Development - Presentation /6/05 - 46
The elements for a potentially successful energy policy • Promotion of renewable energy sources • Programs to curb energy consumption & to promote energy efficiency • Keep all energy options open • Promotion of long-term R+D in energy field • Direct measures of limitation of emission of greenhouse gases & contaminants • Environmental diplomacy • Cooperation with developing countries to eradicate energy poverty • Education efforts to create a global conscience • Regulatory measures to make compatible the liberalization of the energy sector & adequate infrastructure investment BP Chair of Sustainable Development - Presentation /6/05 - 47
The need for normative evaluation
Î Main guidelines for action • Specific targets & policies to achieve desired results are needed as soon as possible ¾Combined effect of some or all of the following policies with a level of effort that measures up to the challenge
ÎEU (world ¿?) would need to agree on a strategic normative scenario, since a deep structural change requires a secure planning horizon to allow a smoother transition process for both the public and the private sector BP Chair of Sustainable Development - Presentation /6/05 - 48
The program of the 2005 Forum
BP Chair of Sustainable Development - Presentation /6/05 - 49
Sunday November 6 evening:
Global energy perspectives • Sustainability problems of the present energy model & identification of plausible scenarios. The case of the EU
• Global long-term perspectives on energy & sustainability
BP Chair of Sustainable Development - Presentation /6/05 - 50
Monday November 7 & morning November 8:
The available policy actions • Remove barriers & apply measures for a significant penetration of renewable energy sources • Establish the role of nuclear energy in the short / medium & long term • The contribution of technology • Energy efficiency & conservation • Cooperation schemes to provide universal access to modern energy sources BP Chair of Sustainable Development - Presentation /6/05 - 51
Tuesday November 8 morning:
Our short-term challenges • A meaningful package of energy policy measures for the short & medium term
Afternoon (at the University): • Presentation of the summary & conclusions of the Forum • Conference on “Geopolitics of oil & gas” by Prof. Jean Marie Chevalier
BP Chair of Sustainable Development - Presentation /6/05 - 52
