The Platinum Group
Buy (17E TP Bt8.60)
Earnings Review
Close Bt7.10
Commerce
Beat forecast/Below forecast/In line
February 16, 2017
2016 net profit increased 12% YoY Results date: February 15, 2017 Price Performance (%)
Source: SET Smart
FY17
FY18
Consensus EPS (Bt)
0.253
0.265
KT ZMICO vs. consensus Share data
2.8%
20.8%
Reuters / Bloomberg
PLAT.BK/PLAT TB
Paid‐up Shares (m)
2,800.00
Par (Bt)
1.00
Market cap (Bt bn / US$ m)
20.00/568.00
Foreign limit / actual (%)
49.00/0.38
52 week High / Low (Bt)
7.60/4.96
Avg. daily T/O (shares 000)
4,814.00
NVDR (%)
2.20
Estimated free float (%)
26.3
Beta
0.93
URL
http://theplatinumgroup.co.th
CGR
Anti‐corruption
Level 2 (Declared)
Pornsawat Jirajarus Analyst, no 18228
[email protected] 66 (0) 2624‐6257
Improvement on course, waiting for a boost from new project PLAT’s 4Q16 net profit was in line. The overall improvement should remain on course, but with rather slow earnings growth in 17E as rental occupancy at the Platinum fashion mall, its flagship project, is nearly full at this point. With the construction work on “The Market” on track, we maintain our forecast that expects the launch of this project to significantly boost its profit growth in 18E‐19E. PLAT’s resilient performance from existing malls and its new project in 18E, which will bring down the PE/EPS growth ratio to merely 0.2x in 19E, cause us to retain our positive view on the stock. Maintain our Buy call. 4Q16 net profit increased 6% YoY PLAT reported 4Q16 net profit of Bt181mn (EPS: Bt0.06), up 6% YoY and 1% QoQ. The YoY profit growth was driven by 1) 12% revenue growth and 2) a 236 bps higher gross margin. However, a decline in other income (including interest income) by 64% YoY (or ‐Bt39mn due to the decline in deposit rates) almost offset the growth of gross profit from core businesses (rental +Bt32mn, hotel +Bt6mn and F&B +Bt2mn). Rental & service revenue grew 13% YoY (+Bt35mn) on the back of the rate rise, a rental area increase (from converting part of the food zone) and more advertising revenue from billboards. Revenue from hotels rose 9% YoY (+Bt8mn) on the back of a room rate rise and gaining more corporate/direct clients. The 2016 net profit was Bt704mn increasing 12% YoY, in line with our forecast. DPS of Bt0.18 for FY16, repeating 70% payout, similar to last year PLAT announced a cash dividend of Bt0.18 per share, indicating a 2.5% yield, with the XD to be on 3 May. This is equivalent to a payout ratio of 70%, similarly to the FY15 pattern (vs. a 40% dividend policy). Waiting for a boost from new project in 18E PLAT’s earnings growth in 17E will be slow, with full‐year recognition of rental income from the night market on Petchaburi road (opened in Dec’16, to add profit by Bt10‐15mn/year) along with rising hotel revenue from higher room rates and more corporate clients being the catalysts. Meanwhile, construction progress on its new project “The Market” remains on track, which should enable the firm to launch this project in 2H18 on schedule. This will boost PLAT’s profit growth in 18E‐19E. We maintain our forecast and our DCF TP of Bt8.60 in 2017. Financials and Valuation FY Ended 31 Dec Revenues (Bt mn) Net profit (Bt mn) EPS (Bt) EPS growth (%) Dividend (Bt) BV (Bt)
2014 917 436 0.21 64.72% 0.08 1.26
2015 968 630 0.22 8.17% 0.16 2.93
2016 1,044 704 0.25 11.85% 0.18 3.02
2017E 1,063 728 0.26 3.32% 0.13 3.10
2018E 1,109 909 0.32 24.98% 0.16 3.30
FY Ended 31 Dec PER (x) EV/EBITDA (x) PBV (x) Dividend yield (%) ROE (%) Net gearing (%)
2014 n.m. n.m. n.m. n.m. 16.56 cash
2015 22.2 14.6 1.7 3.15% 10.75 cash
2016 28.4 19.1 2.4 2.52% 8.45 cash
2017E 27.3 16.3 2.3 1.83% 8.48 cash
2018E 21.9 10.8 2.2 2.29% 10.15 cash
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 1 of 3
Figure 1: Quarterly earnings results Profit and Loss (Btmn) FY Ended 31 Dec Revenue Gross profit EBITDA Interest expense Other income Income tax Forex gain (loss) Other extraordinary Items Gn (Ls) from affiliates Net profit (loss) Normalized profit (loss) Reported EPS (THB) Gross margin (%) EBITDA margin (%) Net margin (%) Current ratio (x) Interest coverage (x) Debt / equity (x) BVPS (Bt) ROE (%)
3Q15 387 233 240 (0) 45 (41) 0 0 0 159 159 0.06 60.1 62.1 41.0 12.9 high cash 2.9 8.9
4Q15 411 252 256 (0) 61 (45) 0 0 0 171 171 0.06 61.3 62.2 41.7 11.6 high cash 2.9 7.9
1Q16 408 247 266 (0) 55 (47) 0 0 0 179 179 0.06 60.7 65.1 43.9 10.5 high cash 3.0 8.2
2Q16 415 253 248 (0) 35 (44) 0 0 0 165 165 0.06 60.9 59.8 39.8 9.6 high cash 2.9 8.2
3Q16 435 276 266 (0) 34 (46) 0 0 0 179 179 0.06 63.4 61.0 41.1 10.5 high cash 3.0 8.4
4Q16 % YoY % QoQ 460 11.9 5.6 293 16.2 6.0 263 3.0 (1.0) (0) nm (8.2) 22 (64.3) (34.8) (40) (10.1) (13.7) 0 nm nm 0 nm nm 0 nm nm 181 5.6 1.1 181 5.6 1.1 0.06 5.6 1.1 63.6 57.2 39.3 9.7 high cash 3.1 8.4
2015 1,599 968 950 (0) 169 (160) 0 0 0 630 630 0.22 60.5 59.4 39.4 10.9 high cash 2.8 10.5
2016 % YoY 1,718 7.4 1,069 10.4 1,043 9.7 (1) 84.5 145 (14.2) (177) 10.4 0 nm 0 nm 1 nm 704 11.9 704 11.9 0.25 11.9 62.2 60.7 41.0 9.7 high cash 3.1 8.4
Source: Company data, KTZMICO Research
Figure 2: Quarterly net profit vs. % growth YoY ( Bt mn )
Net profit (LHS)
Figure 3: Other income & gross profit from core businesses ( Bt mn )
% chg YoY (RHS)
200
200%
150
150%
250 200 Rental income 150
Hotel
100%
100
F&B
100
Other income
50
1Q16
1Q15
1Q14
0 1Q13
1Q16
0%
1Q15
0
1Q14
50%
1Q13
50
Source: PLAT
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 2 of 3
Note: KT ZMICO has two major shareholders, Krungthai Bank PLC (KTB) and Seamico Securities PLC (ZMICO). Therefore, prior to making investments in the securities of KTB and ZMICO, investors should consider the risk factors carefully. An executive of KT ZMICO Securities is also a board member of BCP, BTC, CI, CPI, KBS, MAJOR, MK, PACE, PSL, SVH, VNG, ZMICO, SAWAD, TFG. A management member of KT ZMICO Securities is also a board member of BTC and NFC. KT ZMICO is a financial advisor for U, LOXLEY, ZMICO, MAKRO, CPALL, SAFARI, M‐CHAI, TFD. KT ZMICO is a co underwriter of RPH.
Corporate Governance Report (CGR) Source: Sec, Thai Institute of Directors Association (IOD) Excellent (scores: 90 ‐ 100) Very Good (scores: 80 – 89) Good (scores: 70 – 79)
Satisfactory (scores: 60 – 69) Pass (scores: 50 – 59) No Logo N/A (scores: below 50)
Anti‐corruption Progress Indicator Source: Sec, Thailand's Private Sector Collective Action Coalition Against Corruption programme (Thai CAC)
Level 1 (Committed) : Organization’s statement or board's resolution to work against corruption and to be in compliance with all relevant laws. Level 2 (Declared) : Public declaration statement to participate in Thailand's private sector Collective Action Coalition Against Corruption (CAC) or equivalent initiatives Level 3 (Established) : Public out preventive measures, risk assessment, communication and training for all employees, including consistent monitoring and review processes Level 4 (Certified) : Audit engagement by audit committee or auditors approved by the office of SEC, and receiving certification or assurance by independent external assurance providers (CAC etc.) Level 5 (Extended) : Extension of the anti‐corruption policy to business partners in the supply chain, and disclosure of any current investigations, prosecutions or closed cases Insufficient or not clearly defined policy Data not available / no policy
DISCLAIMER This document is produced using open sources believed to be reliable. However, their accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. The statements and opinions herein were formed after due and careful consideration for use as information for the purposes of investment. The opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. This document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. The use of any information contained in this document shall be at the sole discretion and risk of the user.
KT ZMICO RESEARCH – RECOMMENDATION DEFINITIONS STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS
SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS
BUY: Expecting positive total returns of 15% or more OVERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's over the next 12 months coverage universe, is expected to outperform the relevant OUTPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% primary market index by at least 10% over the next 12 months. to +15%; returns expected to exceed market returns NEUTRAL: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage over a six‐month period due to specific catalysts universe, is expected to perform in line with the relevant UNDERPERFORM: Expecting total returns between primary market index over the next 12 months. ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to be below market UNDERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's returns over a six‐month period due to specific coverage universe, is expected to underperform the relevant catalysts primary market index by 10% over the next 12 months. SELL: Expecting negative total returns of 10% or more over the next 12 months
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 3 of 3
KT ZMICO Securities Company Limited Head Office
WWW.KTZMICO.COM
8th, 15th‐17th,19th, 21st Floor, Liberty Square Bldg., 287 Silom Road, Bangrak, Bangkok, Thailand 10500 Telephone: (66‐2) 695‐5000 Fax: (66‐2) 695‐5173 KT ZMICO Connect 662 695 5555
Central World Branch
Amarin Branch
22nd Floor, Amarin Building, 496‐502 Ploenchit Road, Lumpini, Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330 Telephone: (66‐2) 018‐6200 Fax: (66‐2) 018‐6298, (66‐2) 018‐6299
8th Floor, Ton Son Tower, 900 Ploenchit Road, Lumpini, Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330 Telephone: (66‐2) 626‐6000 Fax: (66‐2) 626‐6111
Phaholyothin Branch
Sindhorn Branch
Viphavadee Branch
2nd Floor, Sindhorn Tower 1, 130‐132 Wireless Road, Lumpini, Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330 Telephone: (66‐2) 627‐3550 Fax: (66‐2) 627‐3582, 627‐3600
G Floor, Lao Peng Nguan 1 Bldg., 333 Soi Cheypuand, Viphavadee‐Rangsit Road, Ladyao, Jatujak, Bangkok 10900 Telephone: (66‐2) 013‐8600 Fax: (66‐2) 618‐8569
BangKhae Branch
Chiang Mai Branch
Pak Chong Branch
999/9 The Offices at Central World, 16th Fl., Rama 1 Rd, Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330 Telephone: (66‐2) 264‐5888 Fax: (66‐2) 264 5899
1291/1, Shinnawatra Tower II, 3rd Floor, Phaholyothin Road, Phayathai, Bangkok 10400 Telephone: (66‐2) 686‐1500 Fax: (66‐2) 686‐1666
Ploenchit Branch
518 The Mall Group Building Bangkhae Branch, 6th Floor, Petchkasem Road, North Bangkhae, Bangkhae, Bangkok 10160 Telephone: (66‐2) 454‐9979 Fax: (66‐2) 454‐9970
422/49 Changklan Road, Changklan Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang, Chiang Mai 50100 Telephone: (053) 270‐072 Fax: (053) 272‐618
173 175, Mittapap Road, Nong Sarai, Pak Chong, Nakhon Ratchasima 30130 Telephone: (044) 279‐511 Fax: (044) 279‐574
Korat Branch
Khon Kaen Branch
Chonburi Branch
624/9 Changphuek Road, T.Naimaung, A.Maung, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000 Telephone: (044) 247222 Fax: (044) 247171
5th Floor, Charoen Thani Princess Hotel, 260 Srichan Road, T. Naimuang, A. Muang, Khon Kaen 40000 Telephone: (043) 389‐171‐193 Fax: (043) 389‐209
4th Floor, Forum Plaza Bldg., 870/52 Sukhumvit Road, T. Bangplasoy, A. Muang, Cholburi 20000 Telephone: (038) 287‐635 Fax: (038) 287‐637
Pattaya Branch
Chachoengsao Branch
Hat Yai Branch
Easy Point 2, 392/65 Moo.9, T.Nong Prue, A. Bang Lamung, Chonburi 20260 Telephone: (038) 420‐965 Fax: (038) 420‐968
108/34‐36 Mahajakkrapad Road, T.Namuang, A.Muang, Chachoengsao 24000 Telephone: (038) 813‐088 Fax: (038) 813‐099
200/301, 200/303 JULDIS HATYAI PLAZA Floor 3 , Niphat‐Uthit 3 Rd, Hatyai Songkhla 90110 Telephone: (074) 355530‐3 Fax: (074) 355534
Phuket Branch
22/61‐63, Luang Por Wat Chalong Road, Talat Yai, Mueang Phuket, Phuket 83000 Telephone: (076) 222‐811, (076) 222‐683 Fax: (076) 222‐861
Phitsanulok Branch
227/171 Borom Trilokkanat Road, Muang, Phitsanulok 65000 Telephone: 055‐219‐255 to 8 Fax: 055‐219‐259
Nakhon Pathom
Cyber Branch Ayutthaya
Cyber Branch @ North Nana
Cyber Branch Chiangrai
KrungThai Bank, Rojana Branch 253 Moo 5, Rojana Road, Phai Ling, Phra Nakhon Si Ayutthaya, Phra Nakhonsi Ayutthaya, 13000 Telephone: 035‐242‐477 Fax: 035‐242‐476
Krung Thai Bank PCL, 2 Floor, North Nana Branch 35 Sukhumvit Rd., Klong Toey Nua Subdistrict , Wattana District , Bangkok 10110 Telephone: 083‐490‐2871
River Hotel (Building 3rd),1156 Petchakasem Road, Sanamchan Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang , Nakhon Pathom Province 73000 Telephone: (034) 271300 Fax: (034) 271300 #100
KrungThai Bank, Hayaek Phokhun Mengrai Branch 116/19 Moo 19, Highway 110 Road, Rop Wiang, Mueang Chiang Rai, Chiang Rai, 57000 Telephone: 053‐715‐067 Fax: 053‐715‐068