Thai Union Frozen Products Outperform (15E TP Bt20.60)
Company Update
Close Bt18.30
Food & Beverage August 17, 2015
Earnings upgrade/Earnings downgrade/Overview unchanged
To pursue Bumble Bee deal Price Performance (%)
Source: SET Smart
FY15
FY16
Consensus EPS (Bt)
1.230
1.390
KT ZMICO vs. consensus Share data
2.4%
‐5%
Reuters / Bloomberg
TUF.BK/TUF TB
Paid‐up Shares (m)
4,771.82
Par (Bt)
0.25
Market cap (Bt bn / US$ m)
87.00/2,481.00
Foreign limit / actual (%)
45.00/41.23
52 week High / Low (Bt)
24.50/16.60
Avg. daily T/O (shares 000)
9,174.00
NVDR (%)
10.76
Estimated free float (%)
63.92
Beta
1.51
URL
www.thaiuniongroup.com
CGR
Phornsri Laysanitsaerekul Analyst , no 17621
[email protected] 66 (0) 2624‐6258
Upgrade rating to Outperform to reflect our upbeat view We hold an upbeat view toward TUF’s 3Q15 earnings outlook (driven by the peak sales season plus the depreciation of the baht). The information we gained from the recent analyst meeting also reaffirms our positive view. The potential acquisition of BBF should become more apparent soon; the firm may have to sell COS to acquire BBF (to boost its growth potential), but this move should help to ease the funding burden for the planned acquisition deal. The current share price leaves some upside vs. our target price of Bt20.60/share, which implies a dividend yield of 3.4%. We thus upgrade our rating to “Outperform” from Underperform. To pursue the planned acquisition of Bumble Bee Foods TUF’s management disclosed in the recent analyst meeting that the firm would pursue its plan to acquire Bumble Bee Foods (BBF), expecting to close the deal by 18 Dec‐15 as stated in the contract. The firm foresees growth potential for the group once BBF’s operation is incorporated. This move is part of its plan to achieve its sales target of US$3bn by 2020. The acquisition to become clearer in 4‐6 weeks; sale of COS likely The acquisition of BBF should become more apparent in 4‐6 weeks. To prevent any antitrust law issues, TUF may have to sell its Chicken of the Sea (COS) before acquiring BBF, which has a bigger business value. According to the management, COS’s business is valued at around US$250mn while BBF’s is worth US$1.51bn; the firm is now considering several potential buyers who have shown interest in buying COS. Hence, the acquisition of BBF and the sale of COS may happen at the same time. In light of this, TUF is waiting for the comments from the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ). The PPO may then occur after the acquisition is completed; hence, it is unlikely to happen in 2015. Merger unlikely but acquisition likely Assuming that TUF will acquire BBF (sales = US$1bn p.a.) and sell COS (sales = 12% or US$530mn), TUF will have sales from BBF to replace those from COS; moreover, BBF’s operation should also boost TUF’s sales growth to a certain extent (note: this is different from our previous view that the acquisition of BBF would fully boost TUF’s operation). Meanwhile, the need of funding for BBF may be reduced from the previous plan as the firm may gain some proceeds from the potential sale of COS; however, we will have to wait for more details about this issue.
Financial and Valuation FY Ended 31 Dec 2012 Revenues (Btmn) 106,698 Net profit (Btmn) 4,694 EPS (Bt) 1.0725 Norm. EPS (Bt) 0.91 Norm. EPS growth (%) ‐27% Dividend (Bt) 0.53 BV (Bt) 8.11 FY Ended 31 Dec 2012 PER (x) 17.06 EV/EBITDA (x) 11.74 PBV (x) 2.26 Dividend yield (%) 2.87% ROE (%) 15.2% Net gearing (%) 89.9
2013 112,813 2,270 0.62 0.48 ‐48% 0.37 8.61 2013 29.40 17.96 2.12 2.04% 5.9% 106.6
2014 121,402 5,092 1.08 1.01 111% 0.54 9.15 2014 16.88 12.48 2.00 3.01% 12.2% 101.5
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 1 of 3
2015E 149,554 6,007 1.26 1.26 25% 0.63 9.87 2015E 14.54 12.50 1.86 3.44% 13.2% 94.2
2016E 166,062 6,276 1.32 1.32 4% 0.66 10.55 2016E 13.91 11.77 1.74 3.59% 12.9% 82.9
Summary of the antitrust issues pertaining to TUF’s business I: In late 2014, TUF planned to acquire BBF, which led to an investigation by the U.S. DOJ in regard to whether or not TUF would violate antitrust law if the firm engaged in both BBF’s and COS’s operation. II: The DOJ carried out the investigation in regard to the antitrust law for the operations of packaged seafood business in the U.S. On 15 Jul‐15, Tri‐Union Seafoods LLC (Tri‐Union), its subsidiary operating Chicken of the Sea, a packaged seafood business in the U.S., has received a subpoena from the DOJ requiring Tri‐Union to provide relevant information to the DOJ in relation to an antitrust investigation of the packaged seafood industry in the United States. Note that Chicken of the Sea is giving full cooperation to the DOJ and still operating business as usual. III: Olean Wholesale Grocery Cooperative filed a lawsuit against Bumble Bee Foods, Starkist and Tri‐Union Seafoods (i.e., the brand belonging to Chicken of the Sea, which is TUF’s subsidiary) on 3 Aug‐15, alleging collusion among the three companies regarding the price of canned tuna during the time that tuna (RM) prices declined. Developments 1. Case I and cases II plus III are different issues. 2. Case II is an investigation of the entire industry and this case was followed by case III. TUF explained that this is normal in the business, i.e., when case II happens, then case III normally follows. In general, case II and III take approximately 1‐ 3 years before coming to an end. 3. TUF reconfirmed its intention to pursue BBF (to boost its future growth) and expects the deal to be completed by 18 Dec‐15 as stated in the agreement between the seller and the buyer. Note that the deal can be delayed only upon receiving the approval of both the buyer and the seller. 4. The management disclosed that the details about the planned acquisition of BBF should become more apparent in the next 4‐6 weeks. The firm also mentioned that it may have to sell its business under COS in order to avoid the antitrust law issues. In light of this, we expect TUF to sell its COS‐branded tuna business in order to acquire the BBF‐branded tuna business that has a bigger value. 5. The acquisition of BBF and the sale of COS may happen at the same time; TUF is waiting for the comments from the DOJ. 6. The PPO may occur after the acquisition is completed; hence, it is unlikely to happen in 2015.
Figure 1 : PER (X) 35.0 30.0 25.0
+2 S.D.
20.0
+1 S.D.
15.0
+0.5 S.D. Avg.
10.0 -0.5 S.D. -1 S.D. 5.0
-2 S.D.
Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15
0.0
Source: KT Z Research
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 2 of 3
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KT ZMICO RESEARCH – RECOMMENDATION DEFINITIONS STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS BUY: Expecting positive total returns of 15% or more over the next 12 months OUTPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to exceed market returns over a six‐month period due to specific catalysts UNDERPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to be below market returns over a six‐month period due to specific catalysts SELL: Expecting negative total returns of 10% or more over the next 12 months
SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS OVERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to outperform the relevant primary market index by at least 10% over the next 12 months. NEUTRAL: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to perform in line with the relevant primary market index over the next 12 months. UNDERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to underperform the relevant primary market index by 10% over the next 12 months.
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 3 of 3
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