TS Model Growth Portfolios
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TS Model Growth Portfolios
January 2010: Strong performance finish
Both portfolios finished the year with double digit returns. In spite of a very cautious stance (large cash position) in the first half of 2009, the CDN dollar portfolio completed the year with a 22.27% total return. The 2009 return for the S&P/TSX Composite was 26.03%. The US dollar portfolio achieved an even higher overall growth rate. The 2009 performance was 37.90%. The 2009 return for the S&P 500 was 17.99%. Since inception (2003), the 7-year average has been 18.63% for the CDN dollar portfolio and 20.01% for the US dollar portfolio. The S&P/TSX has returned 6.31% and for the S&P 500, 4.66% over the same time frame. The primary reason for outperforming both benchmark indexes (S&P/TSX Composite and S&P 500) over the last seven years is due to the overweighting in materials and emerging markets. These asset classes typically outperform the underlying indexes during periods of a weak US Dollar. Also, recognizing the long-term leadership shift between commodities (CRB) and the big-cap S&P 500, has kept the portfolios focused on the primary strength in the markets. Long-term historical data since 1875, indicates that this leadership, favouring one asset class over another, lasts on average about 14 years, but can continue up to 20 years. This would suggest that there is another 1-2 business cycles (6-10 years) where natural resources will display greater performance over the S&P 500.
87.21% of stocks on the NYSE are trending up. Very bullish reading.
Chart 1 Other signs of internal market strength can be seen with the shift in performance from protective bonds to stocks and within equities, the greater relative performance of small cap stocks (Chart 2) over defensive consumer staples. These elements stressing growth over safety are vital components for a prolonged bull market.
Market outlook: Recovery continues
Models indicate upward strength can be anticipated in 2010. The global recovery process, though, is not evenly distributed. Top performing regions (Asia and commoditybased economies) are expected to greatly outperform developed economies (Europe and USA) during this current business cycle. Valuation models for the S&P 500 and S&P/TSX show fair to slightly overvalued levels. This reaction is not uncommon during the 1st or 2nd year of a new bull market. The enthusiasm of investors typically propels equity indexes above 'classic' fundamental buy ranges. Technical measuring gauges often prove more valuable in the early phase of a recovering equity market. In Chart 1, this enthusiasm is illustrated. Since July 2009, between 80% and 90% of the approximate 2000 stocks on the NYSE Composite are trending up. The present level is 87.21%. Market corrections occur only when less than 50% of the "Big Board" is advancing.
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The S&P 600 Small Cap is outperforming the Consumer Staples sector
Chart 2 The spending habits of the consumer (which equals 2/3rds of the economy) is another important factor. Discretionary stocks (home electronics, travel & tourism and gambling, etc.) have been outperforming consumer staples since early 2009. US retail equities, in general, were showing excellent strength in 2009. They continue to outperform the broad-based S&P 500.
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Moving forward
Equity indexes are drawing closer in Q1 to significant price resistance levels. Though the long-term dynamics of the markets remains bullish, consolidation can be anticipated over the next three months (Chart 3). Models indicate that the next major low is expected in early March. Stock markets are trading on an approximate 16-week cycle. The last trough was in early November. The target by February for the S&P 500 is 1230. The target for the TSX is 12,500.
Nearing price resistance at 1230-1300
Nearing price resistance at 12,500
Chart 3
Portfolio changes
As of December 31, the CDN dollar portfolio has $1,185.50 in cash (Claymore Money Market Fund-CMR). This represents 0.50% of the total value. No changes to the CDN dollar portfolio are planned in 2010 expect for the sell of the 700 shares of Horizon Beta Pro Agriculture (HAU). This ETF in scheduled to be sold by mid-2010. Seasonal strength for grains in the first half of 2010 suggests holding HAU. The target price is $24-$25. The present securities were chosen to equal or outperform the benchmark S&P/TSX. Subscribers should try to duplicate the weighted of each ETF. In the US dollar portfolio, there is $5,826.00 of cash. This amount equals 2.2% of the total. There are no changes
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planned to the USD portfolio. The current holdings are well positioned to take advantage of the secular demand for commodities and the expected dynamic economic growth of China, India and Brazil in 2010 and 2011. Disclaimer. Please read. The Technical Speculator and the TS Model Growth Portfolios are independent publications. The information included on this website is for information purposes only. The opinions expressed should not be considered investment advice to buy or sell securities, but rather the author’s opinion only. You assume all risks associated with investment decisions made on the basis of information contained on this website.
The Technical Speculator and the TS Model Growth Portfolios and its author make no representations about
suitability of the services or information contained on this website or publications for any purpose. All such services and information are provided “as is” and “as available,” without warranty of any kind, express or implied. The information contained herein is believed to be accurate, but this cannot be guaranteed. The Technical Speculator and the TS Model Growth Portfolios and/or the author have not taken any steps to verify the adequacy, accuracy or completeness of the information provided. The profiles, critiques, and other editorial content of the Technical Speculator and the TS Model Growth Portfolios may contain forward-looking statements relating to the expected capabilities of the companies or markets mentioned herein. The reader should verify all claims and do his or her own due diligence before investing in any securities mentioned. Investing in securities is speculative and carries a high degree of risk. Neither the Technical Speculator and the TS Model Growth Portfolios nor the author make any warranty, express or implied, of any kind whatsoever, and none of the parties shall be liable for any losses, damages, costs or expenses, of any kind or description, relating to the adequacy, accuracy or completeness of the available information or the use of the available information. The analysis does not purport to be a complete study of the securities mentioned herein, and readers are advised to discuss any related purchase or sale decisions with a registered securities broker. Reports within the Technical Speculator and the TS Model Growth Portfolios are for information purposes only and are not solicitations to buy or sell any of the securities mentioned. The author may or may not have equity positions in the securities mentioned in the Technical Speculator newsletter and the TS Model Growth Portfolios. © Copyright D.W. Dony and Associates Inc., 2006. All rights reserved.
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Portfolio Value
TS Model Growth Portfolio - CDN – December 31, 2009 Investment Claymore Money Market Claymore Agriculture Claymore CDN Fundamental Index Claymore Gold Bullion Trust iShares S&P/TSX Real Estate iShares S&P/TSX Materials iShares Energy Fund Claymore Global Mining Horizon Beta Pro Agric
% 0.5 5.2 27.6 6.7 15.2 11.3 14.3 12.8 6.2
Price 1.00 19.15 11.11 9.89 11.60 17.91 18.62 20.27 19.64
Shares 1,185.500 600.000 5,500.000 1,500.000 2,900.000 1,400.000 1,700.000 1,400.000 700.000
TS Model Growth Portfolio - CDN:
Value 1,185.50 11,490.00 61,105.00 14,835.00 33,640.00 25,074.00 31,654.00 28,378.00 13,748.00
$ 221,109.50
Portfolio value: December 29, 2008 $180,829.75 Year-to-date performance…..................................................................................................................... 22.27% Year-to-date performance: S&P/TSX Composite…………………………....………………………… 26.03% 7-year average CDN portfolio return..................................................................................................... 18.63%
Portfolio Value
TS Model Growth Portfolio - USD – December 31, 2009 Investment Cash iPath India PowerShares DB Base Metals iShares Brazil PowerShares Commodity Index Tracking iPath Copper FTSE China PowerShares DB Precious Metals iShares DJ Energy
% 2.2 7.1 15.8 8.3 10.0 17.0 15.7 15.3 8.6
Price 1.00 64.06 22.50 74.61 24.62 45.80 42.26 37.67 33.24
TS Model Growth Portfolio - USD:
Shares 5,826.000 300.000 1,900.000 300.000 1,100.000 1,000.000 1,000.000 1,100.000 700.000
Value 5,826.00 19,218.00 42,750.00 22,383.00 27,082.00 45,800.00 42,260.00 41,437.00 23,268.00
$270,024.00
Portfolio value: December 29, 2008 $195,809.00 Year-to-date performance…..................................................................................................................... 37.90% Year-to-date performance: S&P 500……………………………………...………….………….……… 17.99% 7-year average USD portfolio return...................................................................................................... 20.01%
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Canadian Growth: January 2010 Security: iShares S&P/TSX Materials Fund - XMA Date of last purchase: January 30, 2009 Current price: $17.91 Last purchase price: 1400 sh @ $13.75 Current considerations: Positive RSI reading of 55.69. Reached 1st price target of $18.00. Stable upward trend continues. Materials sector outperforming TSX. Future recommendations: Continue to hold unless XMA falls below the key support level of $16. New target is $20. Security: Claymore CDN Fundamental Index - CRQ Date of last purchase: October 30, 2009 Current price: $11.11 Last purchase price: 5500 sh @ $10.30 Current considerations: Positive RSI reading at 62.00. Good price support at $10.20. Expect consolidation into Q1 Future recommendations: CRQ is a core holding. This ETF represents the S&P/TSE index. Main upward trend in place. Continue holding unless CRQ falls below stop at $10.00. First target is $12.50. Security: Horizon BetaPro Agriculture - HAU Date of last purchase: June 18, 2009 Current price: $19.64 Last purchase price: 700 sh @ $23.50 Current considerations: Improving RSI at 52.45. HAU has broken out of the consolidation pattern. Upward pressure can be expected into Q1. Some resistance at $20. Future recommendations: Positive seasonality for Ag grains normally in spring. Target is $25-$26. Continue holding. Security: iShares Real Estate - XRE Date of last purchase: May 26, 2008 Current price: $11.60 Last purchase price: 2900 sh @ $13.75 Current considerations: Overbought RSI reading of 71.62. Continue to hold. First target is $12.50. Price support at $11.20 expected in Q1. Stop at $10.40. Future recommendations: Good fundamentals plus high dividend yield in XRE make this security attractive as a hold into 2010. The long-term upside target remains at $16.50.
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Canadian Growth: January 2010 Security: Claymore Gold Bullion Trust – CGL.UN Date of last purchase: September 25, 2009 Current price: $9.89 Last purchase price: 1500 sh @ $9.32 Current considerations: Weakening RSI reading of 44.64. CGL.UN has good price support at $9.75. CGL.UN has reached the 1st target of $10.75. New target is $11.25 Future recommendations: CGL.UN is a direct play on gold bullion. The long-term target is $1300. Continue holding unless CGL.UN falls below the stop at $9.20 Security: iShares TSE Energy Fund - XEG Date of last purchase: September 25, 2009 Current price: $18.62 Last purchase price: 1700 sh @ $17.72 Current considerations: Positive RSI reading of 59.04. XEG has good price support at $17.25. The 1st target for XEG is $21. Some consolidation expected in Q1. Future recommendations: Seasonal strength for oil prices starts in Q1. XEG is expected to be a in the portfolio for 1-2 years. Continue holding. The stop is at $17.00. Security: Claymore Global Mining – CMW Date of last purchase: October 6, 2009 Current price: $20.27 Last purchase price: 1400 sh @ $18.68 Current considerations: Positive RSI reading of 62.13. Increased volume is positive. Support is at $17.80. Resistance is at $22. Expect some consolidation in Q1. Future recommendations: CMW should take advantage of the growing global demand in metals prices. Continue to hold unless CMW falls below $17.80. 1st target is $24. Security: Claymore Global Agriculture – COW Date of last purchase: December 2, 2009 Current price: $19.15 Last purchase price: 600 sh @ $19.25 Current considerations: Positive RSI reading of 61.37. Increased volume is positive. Support is at $18.00. Some resistance is at $20.00. Expect upward pressure in Q1. Future recommendations: COW should take advantage of the growing global demand in agricultural grains. Continue to hold unless COW falls below $17.80. 1st target is $22-$24.
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U.S. Growth: January 2010 Security: PowerShares DB Precious Metals - DBP Date of purchase: January 30, 2009 Current price: $37.67 Original purchase price: 1100 shs @ $31.30 Current considerations: Positive RSI reading of 57.38. The first target of $38 has been met. 2nd target is $44. There is good price support at $37.50 and $36.00. Future recommendations: Additional weakness in the $USD is anticipated in 2010. This should be positive for DBP. The stop level is at $35.50. Continue to hold. Security: iShares FTSE China - FXI Date of purchase: February 17, 2009 Current price: $42.26 Original purchase price: 1000 shs @ $25.10 Current considerations: Positive RSI reading of 53.02. Expect consolidation into Q1. FXI is still in a bull trend. Price support at $41 and $38.80. Continue to hold. Future recommendations: China’s GDP is over 10%. Good recovery and strong future growth prospects fuelling higher prices. Raising target to $54 by Q2. Security: PowerShares DB Base Metals - DBB Date of purchase: April 30, 2009 Current price: $22.50 Original purchase price: 1900 shs @ $13.90 Current considerations: Very overbought RSI reading of 76.23. Reached 1st target of $21-$22. Good price support is at $19.40. Continue to hold. Future recommendations: Global demand increases. Strong upward trend continues into 2010. Stop level is at $17.25. The second target is $25. Security: iPath Copper - JJC Date of purchase: September 23, 2009 Current price: $45.80 Original purchase price: 1000 sh @ $38.20 Current considerations: Overbought RSI reading of 72.49. JJC has broken above resistance level of $40. Steady upward trend into Q1. Future recommendations: 2010 is expected to be the start of the new global business cycle. JJC will follow the cycle. Next target price is $55. Continue to hold. Stop is raided to $40.20.
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U.S. Growth: January 2010 Security: PowerShares DB Commodity Tracking - DBC Date of last purchase: March 25, 2009 Current price: $24.62 Last purchase price: 1100 sh @ $20.70 Current considerations: Positive RSI reading of 58.83. DBC is consolidating between $25.00 and $23.30. This pattern should continue into Q1. The first target is $28. Future recommendations: Economic demand is expected to increase the buying pressure on materials. Continue to hold. The stop is at $21.38. Security: iShares Brazil - EWZ Date of last purchase: October 30, 2009 Current price: $74.61 Last purchase price: 300 sh @ $68.83 Current considerations: Near overbought RSI reading of 66.46. EWZ has price support at $66. EWZ has reached the first target of $80. Expect some consolidation into Q1. Future recommendations: Brazil’s economy is a top global performer. Excellent GDP numbers. Continue to hold unless EWZ falls below the stop a $65.75. $86 is the new target price in 2010. Security: iShares DJ Energy - IYE Date of last purchase: October 30, 2009 Current price: $33.24 Last purchase price: 700 sh @ $32.42 Current considerations: Positive RSI reading of 56.48. IYE is expected to take advantage of rising oil prices in 2010. Price support is at $32. Price resistance is $35.20. The first target is at $39. Expect consolidation in Q1. Future recommendations: Global demand for oil should support higher commodity prices in 2010. Continue holding unless IYE falls below the stop level of $30. Security: iPath India - INP Date of last purchase: December 2, 2009 Current price: $64.06 Last purchase price: 300 sh @ $63.20 Current considerations: Positive RSI reading of 64.73. INP continues to advance in Q1. Resistance is at $65. Slowing growth is expected until March. Future recommendations: India's GDP is a world leader. Growth in 2010 should be 6%-7%. Continue to hold. The stop is at $52.00. 1st target is $77.
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January 2010: Strong performance finish
Both portfolios finished the year with double digit returns. In spite of a very cautious stance (large cash position) in the first half of 2009, the CDN dollar portfolio completed the year with a 22.27% total return. The 2009 return for the S&P/TSX Composite was 26.03%. The US dollar portfolio achieved an even higher overall growth rate. The 2009 performance was 37.90%. The 2009 return for the S&P 500 was 17.99%. Since inception (2003), the 7-year average has been 18.63% for the CDN dollar portfolio and 20.01% for the US dollar portfolio. The S&P/TSX has returned 6.31% and for the S&P 500, 4.66% over the same time frame. The primary reason for outperforming both benchmark indexes (S&P/TSX Composite and S&P 500) over the last seven years is due to the overweighting in materials and emerging markets. These asset classes typically outperform the underlying indexes during periods of a weak US Dollar. Also, recognizing the long-term leadership shift between commodities (CRB) and the big-cap S&P 500, has kept the portfolios focused on the primary strength in the markets. Long-term historical data since 1875, indicates that this leadership, favouring one asset class over another, lasts on average about 14 years, but can continue up to 20 years. This would suggest that there is another 1-2 business cycles (6-10 years) where natural resources will display greater performance over the S&P 500.
87.21% of stocks on the NYSE are trending up. Very bullish reading.
Chart 1 Other signs of internal market strength can be seen with the shift in performance from protective bonds to stocks and within equities, the greater relative performance of small cap stocks (Chart 2) over defensive consumer staples. These elements stressing growth over safety are vital components for a prolonged bull market.
Market outlook: Recovery continues
Models indicate upward strength can be anticipated in 2010. The global recovery process, though, is not evenly distributed. Top performing regions (Asia and commoditybased economies) are expected to greatly outperform developed economies (Europe and USA) during this current business cycle. Valuation models for the S&P 500 and S&P/TSX show fair to slightly overvalued levels. This reaction is not uncommon during the 1st or 2nd year of a new bull market. The enthusiasm of investors typically propels equity indexes above 'classic' fundamental buy ranges. Technical measuring gauges often prove more valuable in the early phase of a recovering equity market. In Chart 1, this enthusiasm is illustrated. Since July 2009, between 80% and 90% of the approximate 2000 stocks on the NYSE Composite are trending up. The present level is 87.21%. Market corrections occur only when less than 50% of the "Big Board" is advancing.
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The S&P 600 Small Cap is outperforming the Consumer Staples sector
Chart 2 The spending habits of the consumer (which equals 2/3rds of the economy) is another important factor. Discretionary stocks (home electronics, travel & tourism and gambling, etc.) have been outperforming consumer staples since early 2009. US retail equities, in general, were showing excellent strength in 2009. They continue to outperform the broad-based S&P 500.
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Moving forward
Equity indexes are drawing closer in Q1 to significant price resistance levels. Though the long-term dynamics of the markets remains bullish, consolidation can be anticipated over the next three months (Chart 3). Models indicate that the next major low is expected in early March. Stock markets are trading on an approximate 16-week cycle. The last trough was in early November. The target by February for the S&P 500 is 1230. The target for the TSX is 12,500.
Nearing price resistance at 1230-1300
Nearing price resistance at 12,500
Chart 3
Portfolio changes
As of December 31, the CDN dollar portfolio has $1,185.50 in cash (Claymore Money Market Fund-CMR). This represents 0.50% of the total value. No changes to the CDN dollar portfolio are planned in 2010 expect for the sell of the 700 shares of Horizon Beta Pro Agriculture (HAU). This ETF in scheduled to be sold by mid-2010. Seasonal strength for grains in the first half of 2010 suggests holding HAU. The target price is $24-$25. The present securities were chosen to equal or outperform the benchmark S&P/TSX. Subscribers should try to duplicate the weighted of each ETF. In the US dollar portfolio, there is $5,826.00 of cash. This amount equals 2.2% of the total. There are no changes
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planned to the USD portfolio. The current holdings are well positioned to take advantage of the secular demand for commodities and the expected dynamic economic growth of China, India and Brazil in 2010 and 2011. Disclaimer. Please read. The Technical Speculator and the TS Model Growth Portfolios are independent publications. The information included on this website is for information purposes only. The opinions expressed should not be considered investment advice to buy or sell securities, but rather the author’s opinion only. You assume all risks associated with investment decisions made on the basis of information contained on this website.
The Technical Speculator and the TS Model Growth Portfolios and its author make no representations about
suitability of the services or information contained on this website or publications for any purpose. All such services and information are provided “as is” and “as available,” without warranty of any kind, express or implied. The information contained herein is believed to be accurate, but this cannot be guaranteed. The Technical Speculator and the TS Model Growth Portfolios and/or the author have not taken any steps to verify the adequacy, accuracy or completeness of the information provided. The profiles, critiques, and other editorial content of the Technical Speculator and the TS Model Growth Portfolios may contain forward-looking statements relating to the expected capabilities of the companies or markets mentioned herein. The reader should verify all claims and do his or her own due diligence before investing in any securities mentioned. Investing in securities is speculative and carries a high degree of risk. Neither the Technical Speculator and the TS Model Growth Portfolios nor the author make any warranty, express or implied, of any kind whatsoever, and none of the parties shall be liable for any losses, damages, costs or expenses, of any kind or description, relating to the adequacy, accuracy or completeness of the available information or the use of the available information. The analysis does not purport to be a complete study of the securities mentioned herein, and readers are advised to discuss any related purchase or sale decisions with a registered securities broker. Reports within the Technical Speculator and the TS Model Growth Portfolios are for information purposes only and are not solicitations to buy or sell any of the securities mentioned. The author may or may not have equity positions in the securities mentioned in the Technical Speculator newsletter and the TS Model Growth Portfolios. © Copyright D.W. Dony and Associates Inc., 2006. All rights reserved.
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Portfolio Value
TS Model Growth Portfolio - CDN – December 31, 2009 Investment Claymore Money Market Claymore Agriculture Claymore CDN Fundamental Index Claymore Gold Bullion Trust iShares S&P/TSX Real Estate iShares S&P/TSX Materials iShares Energy Fund Claymore Global Mining Horizon Beta Pro Agric
% 0.5 5.2 27.6 6.7 15.2 11.3 14.3 12.8 6.2
Price 1.00 19.15 11.11 9.89 11.60 17.91 18.62 20.27 19.64
Shares 1,185.500 600.000 5,500.000 1,500.000 2,900.000 1,400.000 1,700.000 1,400.000 700.000
TS Model Growth Portfolio - CDN:
Value 1,185.50 11,490.00 61,105.00 14,835.00 33,640.00 25,074.00 31,654.00 28,378.00 13,748.00
$ 221,109.50
Portfolio value: December 29, 2008 $180,829.75 Year-to-date performance…..................................................................................................................... 22.27% Year-to-date performance: S&P/TSX Composite…………………………....………………………… 26.03% 7-year average CDN portfolio return..................................................................................................... 18.63%
Portfolio Value
TS Model Growth Portfolio - USD – December 31, 2009 Investment Cash iPath India PowerShares DB Base Metals iShares Brazil PowerShares Commodity Index Tracking iPath Copper FTSE China PowerShares DB Precious Metals iShares DJ Energy
% 2.2 7.1 15.8 8.3 10.0 17.0 15.7 15.3 8.6
Price 1.00 64.06 22.50 74.61 24.62 45.80 42.26 37.67 33.24
TS Model Growth Portfolio - USD:
Shares 5,826.000 300.000 1,900.000 300.000 1,100.000 1,000.000 1,000.000 1,100.000 700.000
Value 5,826.00 19,218.00 42,750.00 22,383.00 27,082.00 45,800.00 42,260.00 41,437.00 23,268.00
$270,024.00
Portfolio value: December 29, 2008 $195,809.00 Year-to-date performance…..................................................................................................................... 37.90% Year-to-date performance: S&P 500……………………………………...………….………….……… 17.99% 7-year average USD portfolio return...................................................................................................... 20.01%
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Canadian Growth: January 2010 Security: iShares S&P/TSX Materials Fund - XMA Date of last purchase: January 30, 2009 Current price: $17.91 Last purchase price: 1400 sh @ $13.75 Current considerations: Positive RSI reading of 55.69. Reached 1st price target of $18.00. Stable upward trend continues. Materials sector outperforming TSX. Future recommendations: Continue to hold unless XMA falls below the key support level of $16. New target is $20. Security: Claymore CDN Fundamental Index - CRQ Date of last purchase: October 30, 2009 Current price: $11.11 Last purchase price: 5500 sh @ $10.30 Current considerations: Positive RSI reading at 62.00. Good price support at $10.20. Expect consolidation into Q1 Future recommendations: CRQ is a core holding. This ETF represents the S&P/TSE index. Main upward trend in place. Continue holding unless CRQ falls below stop at $10.00. First target is $12.50. Security: Horizon BetaPro Agriculture - HAU Date of last purchase: June 18, 2009 Current price: $19.64 Last purchase price: 700 sh @ $23.50 Current considerations: Improving RSI at 52.45. HAU has broken out of the consolidation pattern. Upward pressure can be expected into Q1. Some resistance at $20. Future recommendations: Positive seasonality for Ag grains normally in spring. Target is $25-$26. Continue holding. Security: iShares Real Estate - XRE Date of last purchase: May 26, 2008 Current price: $11.60 Last purchase price: 2900 sh @ $13.75 Current considerations: Overbought RSI reading of 71.62. Continue to hold. First target is $12.50. Price support at $11.20 expected in Q1. Stop at $10.40. Future recommendations: Good fundamentals plus high dividend yield in XRE make this security attractive as a hold into 2010. The long-term upside target remains at $16.50.
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Canadian Growth: January 2010 Security: Claymore Gold Bullion Trust – CGL.UN Date of last purchase: September 25, 2009 Current price: $9.89 Last purchase price: 1500 sh @ $9.32 Current considerations: Weakening RSI reading of 44.64. CGL.UN has good price support at $9.75. CGL.UN has reached the 1st target of $10.75. New target is $11.25 Future recommendations: CGL.UN is a direct play on gold bullion. The long-term target is $1300. Continue holding unless CGL.UN falls below the stop at $9.20 Security: iShares TSE Energy Fund - XEG Date of last purchase: September 25, 2009 Current price: $18.62 Last purchase price: 1700 sh @ $17.72 Current considerations: Positive RSI reading of 59.04. XEG has good price support at $17.25. The 1st target for XEG is $21. Some consolidation expected in Q1. Future recommendations: Seasonal strength for oil prices starts in Q1. XEG is expected to be a in the portfolio for 1-2 years. Continue holding. The stop is at $17.00. Security: Claymore Global Mining – CMW Date of last purchase: October 6, 2009 Current price: $20.27 Last purchase price: 1400 sh @ $18.68 Current considerations: Positive RSI reading of 62.13. Increased volume is positive. Support is at $17.80. Resistance is at $22. Expect some consolidation in Q1. Future recommendations: CMW should take advantage of the growing global demand in metals prices. Continue to hold unless CMW falls below $17.80. 1st target is $24. Security: Claymore Global Agriculture – COW Date of last purchase: December 2, 2009 Current price: $19.15 Last purchase price: 600 sh @ $19.25 Current considerations: Positive RSI reading of 61.37. Increased volume is positive. Support is at $18.00. Some resistance is at $20.00. Expect upward pressure in Q1. Future recommendations: COW should take advantage of the growing global demand in agricultural grains. Continue to hold unless COW falls below $17.80. 1st target is $22-$24.
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U.S. Growth: January 2010 Security: PowerShares DB Precious Metals - DBP Date of purchase: January 30, 2009 Current price: $37.67 Original purchase price: 1100 shs @ $31.30 Current considerations: Positive RSI reading of 57.38. The first target of $38 has been met. 2nd target is $44. There is good price support at $37.50 and $36.00. Future recommendations: Additional weakness in the $USD is anticipated in 2010. This should be positive for DBP. The stop level is at $35.50. Continue to hold. Security: iShares FTSE China - FXI Date of purchase: February 17, 2009 Current price: $42.26 Original purchase price: 1000 shs @ $25.10 Current considerations: Positive RSI reading of 53.02. Expect consolidation into Q1. FXI is still in a bull trend. Price support at $41 and $38.80. Continue to hold. Future recommendations: China’s GDP is over 10%. Good recovery and strong future growth prospects fuelling higher prices. Raising target to $54 by Q2. Security: PowerShares DB Base Metals - DBB Date of purchase: April 30, 2009 Current price: $22.50 Original purchase price: 1900 shs @ $13.90 Current considerations: Very overbought RSI reading of 76.23. Reached 1st target of $21-$22. Good price support is at $19.40. Continue to hold. Future recommendations: Global demand increases. Strong upward trend continues into 2010. Stop level is at $17.25. The second target is $25. Security: iPath Copper - JJC Date of purchase: September 23, 2009 Current price: $45.80 Original purchase price: 1000 sh @ $38.20 Current considerations: Overbought RSI reading of 72.49. JJC has broken above resistance level of $40. Steady upward trend into Q1. Future recommendations: 2010 is expected to be the start of the new global business cycle. JJC will follow the cycle. Next target price is $55. Continue to hold. Stop is raided to $40.20.
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U.S. Growth: January 2010 Security: PowerShares DB Commodity Tracking - DBC Date of last purchase: March 25, 2009 Current price: $24.62 Last purchase price: 1100 sh @ $20.70 Current considerations: Positive RSI reading of 58.83. DBC is consolidating between $25.00 and $23.30. This pattern should continue into Q1. The first target is $28. Future recommendations: Economic demand is expected to increase the buying pressure on materials. Continue to hold. The stop is at $21.38. Security: iShares Brazil - EWZ Date of last purchase: October 30, 2009 Current price: $74.61 Last purchase price: 300 sh @ $68.83 Current considerations: Near overbought RSI reading of 66.46. EWZ has price support at $66. EWZ has reached the first target of $80. Expect some consolidation into Q1. Future recommendations: Brazil’s economy is a top global performer. Excellent GDP numbers. Continue to hold unless EWZ falls below the stop a $65.75. $86 is the new target price in 2010. Security: iShares DJ Energy - IYE Date of last purchase: October 30, 2009 Current price: $33.24 Last purchase price: 700 sh @ $32.42 Current considerations: Positive RSI reading of 56.48. IYE is expected to take advantage of rising oil prices in 2010. Price support is at $32. Price resistance is $35.20. The first target is at $39. Expect consolidation in Q1. Future recommendations: Global demand for oil should support higher commodity prices in 2010. Continue holding unless IYE falls below the stop level of $30. Security: iPath India - INP Date of last purchase: December 2, 2009 Current price: $64.06 Last purchase price: 300 sh @ $63.20 Current considerations: Positive RSI reading of 64.73. INP continues to advance in Q1. Resistance is at $65. Slowing growth is expected until March. Future recommendations: India's GDP is a world leader. Growth in 2010 should be 6%-7%. Continue to hold. The stop is at $52.00. 1st target is $77.
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