Whangarei District Growth Model
Whangarei District Growth Model GROWTH MODEL DATA
Whangarei District Growth Model 3. Growth Regression Analysis Population and Dwellings vs. Building Consents and New Lots 30,000
80,000
R2 = 0.9737
R2 = 0.9956 70,000
25,000
Occupied Dwellings
Population
60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
20,000 5,000
10,000 0
0
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
New Lots
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
New Lots
30,000
80,000
R2 = 0.9832
R2 = 0.8764
70,000
25,000
Occupied Dwellings
Population
60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
20,000 5,000
10,000 0
0
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
0
500
1,000
New Dwellings
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
New Dwellings
5,000
30,000
R2 = 0.921
4,500
R2 = 0.9484 25,000
4,000 Occupied Dwellings
3,500 New Dwellings
1,500
3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
500 0 0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
New Lots
Version 2.7 July 2008
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
0 66,000 67,000 68,000 69,000 70,000 71,000 72,000 73,000 74,000 75,000 Population
Page 79 of 107
Whangarei District Growth Model 4.
Development Tables
Table 35 Business and Residential Development by Area Unit 2001-2006 New Dwellings BCs Abbey Caves
35
Bream Bay
41
Bream Head
Commercial BCs
Residential Subdivision (Number of Lots)
1
250
85
37
124
Hikurangi
1
40
Horahora
4
45
Inlet-Tutukaka Harbour
8
Kamo East
34
Kamo West
37
Kensington
7
368 117 1
19
Mairtown
27
Marsden Point-Ruakaka
146
4
883
Maungatapere
46
1
127
Maunu Morningside Ngunguru Onerahi Opouteke-Tanekaha Otaika-Portland
60
4 5 59
39 2
267
178
3
463
24
2
76
14
60
13 9
Parua Bay
63
Pataua-Whareora
49
Port-Limeburners
4
Punaruku-Kiripaka
144
34 2
311 186
19
93 875
Raumanga East
1
Raumanga West
4
1
72
Regent
1
1
24
Riverside
9
2
17
29
Sherwood Rise
95
Springs Flat
63
Te Hihi
98
238
Three Mile Bush
134
222
Tikipunga East
11
44
Tikipunga West
32
289
4
8
Vinetown Waiotira-Springfield Waipu
100 2
114
67
4
383
122
2
660
Western Hills
4
Whangarei Central
1
8
11
Wharekohe-Oakleigh
146
3
420
Whau Valley
19
46
Woodhill
6
80
Total
Version 2.7 July 2008
120
13
Otangarei Parahaki
Commercial Subdivision (Number of Lots)
1785
84
34
58
7347
204
Page 80 of 107
Whangarei District Growth Model Table 36 Business and Residential Development by Structure Plan Area 2001-2006 New Dwellings BCs Avenues
12
City Centre
1
City Port Hikurangi Kamo-Three Mile Bush
Residential Subdivision (Number of Lots)
5
27
4
32 51
384
1,073
46
Marsden Point - Ruakaka
156
179 2
1,202
26
177
Maunu
120
368
McLeod Bay & Reotahi
11
54
Ngunguru
22
114
Oakura
12
Otaika-Toetoe
15
Parahaki-Onerahi
158
166
2
274
262
51
Pataua
16
96
Portland
16
33
Taurikura & Urquharts
13
57
Tikipunga-Glenbervie
110
461
Tutukaka
41
180
Waipu
72
Waipu Cove & Langs Beach
55
Total
Version 2.7 July 2008
1
291 379
3 1,344
204
102 15
Parua Bay
Western Hills
Commercial Subdivision (Number of Lots)
69
4
Kensington
Matapouri
Commercial BCs
2 29
5,649
204
Page 81 of 107
Whangarei District Growth Model Figure 44 Development Trends for the Whangarei District 1992-2008 1,600
Number of New Lots/ New Dwellings
1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200
New Lots
Version 2.7 July 2008
New Dwellings
New Dwellings
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
0
New Lots
Page 82 of 107
Whangarei District Growth Model 5. Household Tables - Population Table 37 Usually Resident Population Growth Rates by Area Unit 1996
Abbey Caves
312
417
411
567
105
33.65%
Bream Bay
465
516
618
786
51
10.97%
Bream Head
921
1,224
1,227
1,251
303
32.90%
Hikurangi
1,446
1,434
1,422
1,425
-12
Horahora
1,005
948
978
1,023
-57
Inlet-Port Whangarei
0
12
9
12
Inlet-Tutukaka Harbour
0
18
24
Inlet-Whangarei Harbour
2001
2006
1991-1996
1991
Number
Percent
1996-2001 Number
2001-2006
Percent
Number
Percent
-6
-1.44%
156
37.96%
102
19.77%
168
27.18%
3
0.25%
24
1.96%
-0.83%
-12
-0.84%
3
0.21%
-5.67%
30
3.16%
45
4.60%
12
-3
-25.00%
3
33.33%
3
18
6
33.33%
-21
-87.50% 350.00%
0
15
6
27
15
-9
-60.00%
21
Kamo East
2,808
2,799
3,039
3,165
-9
-0.32%
240
8.57%
126
4.15%
Kamo West
2,754
2,814
2,976
3,150
60
2.18%
162
5.76%
174
5.85% 3.48%
Kensington
1,263
1,299
1,293
1,338
36
2.85%
-6
-0.46%
45
Mairtown
2,091
2,316
2,340
2,358
225
10.76%
24
1.04%
18
0.77%
Marsden Point-Ruakaka
2,691
2,757
2,655
2,913
66
2.45%
-102
-3.70%
258
9.72% 20.96%
Maungatapere
678
918
1,059
1,281
240
35.40%
141
15.36%
222
Maunu
1,113
1,233
1,296
1,350
120
10.78%
63
5.11%
54
4.17%
Morningside
2,034
2,052
2,061
2,142
18
0.88%
9
0.44%
81
3.93%
Ngunguru
1,017
1,266
1,290
1,422
249
24.48%
24
1.90%
132
10.23%
Onerahi
2,025
2,115
1,995
2,100
90
4.44%
-120
-5.67%
105
5.26%
Opouteke-Tanekaha
3,126
3,483
3,819
4,485
357
11.42%
336
9.65%
666
17.44%
720
813
981
996
93
12.92%
168
20.66%
15
1.53% 11.26%
Otaika-Portland Otangarei
2,217
2,262
2,025
2,253
45
2.03%
-237
-10.48%
228
Parahaki
1,164
1,167
1,173
1,158
3
0.26%
6
0.51%
-15
-1.28%
Parua Bay
1,299
1,560
1,686
1,944
261
20.09%
126
8.08%
258
15.30%
Pataua-Whareora
510
708
759
993
198
38.82%
51
7.20%
234
30.83%
Port-Limeburners
36
33
51
48
-3
-8.33%
18
54.55%
-3
-5.88%
Punaruku-Kiripaka
2,574
3,129
3,372
3,651
555
21.56%
243
7.77%
279
8.27%
Raumanga East
1,755
1,749
1,647
1,749
-6
-0.34%
-102
-5.83%
102
6.19%
Raumanga West
2,889
2,946
2,808
2,994
57
1.97%
-138
-4.68%
186
6.62%
Regent
1,650
1,854
1,722
1,674
204
12.36%
-132
-7.12%
-48
-2.79%
729
792
753
882
63
8.64%
-39
-4.92%
129
17.13%
Riverside Sherwood Rise
3,579
3,513
3,489
3,633
-66
-1.84%
-24
-0.68%
144
4.13%
Springs Flat
867
999
1,131
1,362
132
15.22%
132
13.21%
231
20.42%
Te Hihi
495
594
570
840
99
20.00%
-24
-4.04%
270
47.37%
Three Mile Bush Tikipunga East
336
372
417
645
36
10.71%
45
12.10%
228
54.68%
2,817
2,844
2,778
3,096
27
0.96%
-66
-2.32%
318
11.45%
Tikipunga West
2,625
2,652
2,880
3,024
27
1.03%
228
8.60%
144
5.00%
Vinetown
1,434
1,437
1,443
1,527
3
0.21%
6
0.42%
84
5.82%
Waiotira-Springfield
1,416
1,491
1,557
1,851
75
5.30%
66
4.43%
294
18.88%
Waipu
1,089
1,218
1,278
1,485
129
11.85%
60
4.93%
207
16.20%
Western Hills
204
213
192
231
9
4.41%
-21
-9.86%
39
20.31%
Whangarei Central
8.47%
-33
-17.19%
54
33.96%
3
100.00%
612
23.08%
177
192
159
213
15
Whangaruru Harbour
0
0
3
6
0
Wharekohe-Oakleigh
2,019
2,460
2,652
3,264
441
21.84%
Whau Valley
2,331
2,382
2,394
2,469
51
2.19%
12
0.50%
75
3.13%
Woodhill
1,521
1,650
1,629
1,644
129
8.48%
-21
-1.27%
15
0.92%
62,202
66,666
68,067
74,430
4,464
7.18%
1,401
2.10%
6,363
9.35%
Total
Version 2.7 July 2008
3 192
7.80%
Page 83 of 107
Whangarei District Growth Model
Table 38 Usually Resident Population Growth Rates by Structure Plan Study Area 1991
1996
2001
1991-1996
2006
Number Avenues
Percent
1996-2001 Number
Percent
2001-2006 Number
Percent
4,305
4,386
4,347
4,539
81
1.88%
-39
-0.89%
192
4.42%
City Centre
774
753
723
726
-21
-2.71%
-30
-3.98%
3
0.41%
City Port
24
21
27
27
-3
-12.50%
6
28.57%
0
0.00%
Hikurangi
1,527
1,542
1,560
1,572
15
0.98%
18
1.17%
12
0.77%
Kamo-Three Mile Bush
8,940
9,423
10,104
11,223
483
5.40%
681
7.23%
1,119
11.07%
Kensington
8,352
8,958
8,616
9,039
606
7.26%
-342
-3.82%
423
4.91%
Marsden Point - Ruakaka
2,808
2,883
2,829
3,114
75
2.67%
-54
-1.87%
285
10.07%
198
318
315
372
120
60.61%
-3
-0.94%
57
18.10%
3,207
3,480
3,630
4,047
273
8.51%
150
4.31%
417
11.49%
486
597
606
582
111
22.84%
9
1.51%
-24
-3.96%
Ngunguru
552
666
792
846
114
20.65%
126
18.92%
54
6.82%
Oakura
369
432
345
351
63
17.07%
-87
-20.14%
6
1.74%
Otaika-Toetoe
4,917
4,989
4,803
5,091
72
1.46%
-186
-3.73%
288
6.00%
Parahaki-Onerahi
Matapouri Maunu McLeod Bay & Reotahi
6,765
6,915
6,771
7,161
150
2.22%
-144
-2.08%
390
5.76%
Parua Bay
612
714
867
1,068
102
16.67%
153
21.43%
201
23.18%
Pataua
234
375
393
480
141
60.26%
18
4.80%
87
22.14%
Portland
468
495
543
606
27
5.77%
48
9.70%
63
11.60%
Taurikura & Urquharts
390
519
471
486
129
33.08%
-48
-9.25%
15
3.18%
Tikipunga-Glenbervie
6,525
6,651
6,957
7,677
126
1.93%
306
4.60%
720
10.35%
Tutukaka
570
753
654
753
183
32.11%
-99
-13.15%
99
15.14%
Waipu
912
1,014
1,026
1,188
102
11.18%
12
1.18%
162
15.79%
Waipu Cove & Langs Beach
306
339
402
450
33
10.78%
63
18.58%
48
11.94%
69
90
66
81
21
30.43%
-24
-26.67%
15
22.73%
53,310
56,313
56,847
61,479
3,003
5.63%
534
0.95%
4,632
8.15%
Western Hills Structure Plan Total
Version 2.7 July 2008
Page 84 of 107
Whangarei District Growth Model Table 39 High Population Projections by Area Unit 1991 - 2041 1991
1996
2001
2006
2011
2016
2021
2026
2031
2036
2041
Abbey Caves
312
417
411
567
640
683
722
759
793
828
862
Bream Bay
465
516
618
786
1,015
1,210
1,279
1,344
1,405
1,466
1,527 1,929
Bream Head
921
1,224
1,227
1,251
1,374
1,529
1,616
1,698
1,775
1,852
Hikurangi
1,446
1,434
1,422
1,425
1,469
1,509
1,595
1,677
1,752
1,828
1,904
Horahora
1,005
948
978
1,023
1,070
1,112
1,175
1,235
1,291
1,347
1,403
Inlet-Port Whangarei
0
12
9
12
12
12
13
13
14
15
15
Inlet-Tutukaka Harbour
0
18
24
3
12
20
21
22
23
24
25
Inlet-Whangarei Harbour
0
15
6
27
27
30
32
34
35
37
38
2,808
2,799
3,039
3,165
3,592
4,027
4,258
4,475
4,677
4,880
5,082
Kamo East Kamo West
2,754
2,814
2,976
3,150
3,237
3,299
3,487
3,665
3,831
3,997
4,162
Kensington
1,263
1,299
1,293
1,338
1,352
1,362
1,440
1,513
1,581
1,650
1,718
Mairtown
2,091
2,316
2,340
2,358
2,395
2,413
2,551
2,680
2,802
2,923
3,044
Marsden Point-Ruakaka
2,691
2,757
2,655
2,913
3,720
4,478
4,734
4,975
5,200
5,425
5,651
678
918
1,059
1,281
1,455
1,562
1,652
1,736
1,814
1,893
1,971
Maunu
1,113
1,233
1,296
1,350
1,354
1,363
1,441
1,514
1,583
1,651
1,720
Morningside
2,034
2,052
2,061
2,142
2,164
2,195
2,321
2,439
2,549
2,660
2,770
Ngunguru
1,017
1,266
1,290
1,422
1,637
1,846
1,951
2,051
2,144
2,236
2,329
Onerahi
2,025
2,115
1,995
2,100
2,142
2,174
2,298
2,415
2,525
2,634
2,743
Opouteke-Tanekaha
3,126
3,483
3,819
4,485
4,828
5,061
5,351
5,623
5,878
6,132
6,387
Maungatapere
Otaika-Portland
720
813
981
996
1,070
1,125
1,190
1,250
1,307
1,363
1,420
Otangarei
2,217
2,262
2,025
2,253
2,261
2,274
2,404
2,526
2,641
2,755
2,870
Parahaki
1,164
1,167
1,173
1,158
1,182
1,213
1,283
1,348
1,409
1,470
1,531
Parua Bay
1,299
1,560
1,686
1,944
2,222
2,434
2,573
2,704
2,826
2,949
3,071
Pataua-Whareora
510
708
759
993
1,114
1,402
1,482
1,557
1,628
1,698
1,769
Port-Limeburners
36
33
51
48
150
253
267
281
293
306
319
Punaruku-Kiripaka
2,574
3,129
3,372
3,651
4,369
5,030
5,318
5,588
5,842
6,095
6,347
Raumanga East
1,755
1,749
1,647
1,749
1,761
1,772
1,873
1,969
2,058
2,147
2,236
Raumanga West
2,889
2,946
2,808
2,994
3,072
3,134
3,313
3,482
3,639
3,797
3,954
Regent
1,650
1,854
1,722
1,674
1,690
1,705
1,802
1,894
1,980
2,066
2,152
Riverside
729
792
753
882
917
945
999
1,050
1,097
1,145
1,192
3,579
3,513
3,489
3,633
3,791
3,837
4,056
4,263
4,456
4,649
4,842
Springs Flat
867
999
1,131
1,362
1,469
1,758
1,859
1,953
2,042
2,130
2,219
Te Hihi
495
594
570
840
1,011
1,136
1,201
1,262
1,320
1,377
1,434
Three Mile Bush
336
372
417
645
767
839
887
932
974
1,016
1,058
2,817
2,844
2,778
3,096
3,137
3,185
3,367
3,538
3,699
3,859
4,019
Sherwood Rise
Tikipunga East Tikipunga West
2,625
2,652
2,880
3,024
3,116
3,162
3,343
3,514
3,673
3,832
3,991
Vinetown
1,434
1,437
1,443
1,527
1,531
1,532
1,620
1,702
1,779
1,856
1,933
Waiotira-Springfield
1,416
1,491
1,557
1,851
2,321
2,686
2,839
2,984
3,119
3,254
3,389
Waipu
1,089
1,218
1,278
1,485
2,065
2,578
2,725
2,864
2,994
3,123
3,253
Western Hills
204
213
192
231
234
249
263
277
289
302
314
Whangarei Central
177
192
159
213
223
243
256
269
282
294
306
Whangaruru Harbour
0
0
3
6
6
6
6
7
7
7
8
Wharekohe-Oakleigh
2,019
2,460
2,652
3,264
3,625
3,904
4,128
4,338
4,534
4,730
4,927
Whau Valley
2,331
2,382
2,394
2,469
2,531
2,567
2,714
2,852
2,981
3,110
3,239
Woodhill
1,521
1,650
1,629
1,644
1,670
1,713
1,811
1,903
1,989
2,075
2,161
62,202
66,666
68,067
74,430
80,799
86,564
91,515
96,173
100,530
104,883
109,235
Grand Total
Version 2.7 July 2008
Page 85 of 107
Whangarei District Growth Model Table 40 High Population Projections by Structure Plan Study Area 1991
1996
2001
2006
2011
2016
2021
2026
2031
2036
2041
4,305
4,386
4,347
4,539
4,582
4,633
4,898
5,148
5,381
5,614
5,847
City Centre
774
753
723
726
744
771
815
857
896
934
973
City Port
24
21
27
27
63
93
98
103
108
113
118
Hikurangi
1,527
1,542
1,560
1,572
1,626
1,674
1,770
1,860
1,944
2,029
2,113
Avenues
Kamo-Three Mile Bush
8,940
9,423
10,104
11,223
12,158
13,138
13,889
14,596
15,258
15,918
16,579
Kensington
8,352
8,958
8,616
9,039
9,155
9,235
9,763
10,260
10,725
11,189
11,653
Marsden Point - Ruakaka
2,808
2,883
2,829
3,114
4,150
5,096
5,387
5,662
5,918
6,174
6,431
198
318
315
372
474
543
574
603
631
658
685 5,706
Matapouri Maunu
3,207
3,480
3,630
4,047
4,308
4,522
4,780
5,024
5,251
5,479
McLeod Bay & Reotahi
486
597
606
582
640
707
747
785
821
856
892
Ngunguru
552
666
792
846
889
938
992
1,042
1,089
1,136
1,184
Oakura
369
432
345
351
452
564
596
626
655
683
711
Otaika-Toetoe
4,917
4,989
4,803
5,091
5,260
5,409
5,719
6,010
6,282
6,554
6,826
Parahaki-Onerahi
6,765
6,915
6,771
7,161
7,436
7,662
8,101
8,513
8,899
9,284
9,669
Parua Bay
612
714
867
1,068
1,300
1,482
1,567
1,646
1,721
1,795
1,870
Pataua
234
375
393
480
547
668
706
742
776
810
843
Portland
468
495
543
606
630
654
691
726
759
792
825
Taurikura & Urquharts
390
519
471
486
519
597
631
664
694
724
754
Tikipunga-Glenbervie
10,258
6,525
6,651
6,957
7,677
7,937
8,129
8,594
9,032
9,441
9,850
Tutukaka
570
753
654
753
950
1,135
1,200
1,261
1,318
1,375
1,432
Waipu
912
1,014
1,026
1,188
1,435
1,648
1,743
1,831
1,914
1,997
2,080
Waipu Cove & Langs Beach
306
339
402
450
793
1,098
1,161
1,220
1,275
1,330
1,386
Western Hills
69
90
66
81
82
94
99
104
109
114
119
53,310
56,313
56,847
61,479
66,128
70,491
74,523
78,316
81,864
85,409
88,953
Structure Plan Total
Version 2.7 July 2008
Page 86 of 107
Whangarei District Growth Model 6. Household Tables - Dwellings Table 41 Growth in Occupied Dwelling Count by Area Unit 1991-1996
1996-2001
2001-2006
1991
1996
2001
2006
Number
Percent
Number
Percent
Number
Abbey Caves
99
123
150
201
24
24.24%
27
21.95%
51
34.00%
Bream Bay
171
189
222
282
18
10.53%
33
17.46%
60
27.03%
Bream Head
354
471
498
534
117
33.05%
27
5.73%
36
7.23%
Percent
Hikurangi
441
462
474
489
21
4.76%
12
2.60%
15
3.16%
Horahora
321
354
378
387
33
10.28%
24
6.78%
9
2.38%
Inlet-Port Whangarei
0
0
3
0
0
3
-3
-100.00%
Inlet-Tutukaka Harbour
0
15
21
0
15
6
-21
-100.00%
-6
-100.00%
Inlet-Whangarei Harbour
0
0
6
0
0
Kamo East
942
987
1,074
1,161
45
4.78%
87
6 8.81%
87
8.10%
Kamo West
1,011
1,113
1,185
1,257
102
10.09%
72
6.47%
72
6.08%
Kensington
546
567
573
600
21
3.85%
6
1.06%
27
4.71%
Mairtown
939
1,029
1,065
1,095
90
9.58%
36
3.50%
30
2.82%
Marsden Point-Ruakaka
951
996
1,041
1,143
45
4.73%
45
4.52%
102
9.80%
Maungatapere
204
294
366
438
90
44.12%
72
24.49%
72
19.67%
Maunu
399
429
474
501
30
7.52%
45
10.49%
27
5.70%
Morningside
720
738
759
798
18
2.50%
21
2.85%
39
5.14%
Ngunguru
402
510
555
633
108
26.87%
45
8.82%
78
14.05%
Onerahi
669
723
762
810
54
8.07%
39
5.39%
48
6.30%
Opouteke-Tanekaha
933
1,092
1,227
1,431
159
17.04%
135
12.36%
204
16.63%
Otaika-Portland
222
270
330
351
48
21.62%
60
22.22%
21
6.36% 3.74%
Otangarei
657
663
642
666
6
0.91%
-21
-3.17%
24
Parahaki
399
423
426
444
24
6.02%
3
0.71%
18
4.23%
Parua Bay
468
561
651
744
93
19.87%
90
16.04%
93
14.29%
Pataua-Whareora
198
255
273
369
57
28.79%
18
7.06%
96
35.16%
Port-Limeburners
12
30
36
33
18
150.00%
6
20.00%
-3
-8.33%
Punaruku-Kiripaka
897
1,119
1,236
1,350
222
24.75%
117
10.46%
114
9.22%
Raumanga East
537
555
558
579
18
3.35%
3
0.54%
21
3.76%
Raumanga West
885
915
927
945
30
3.39%
12
1.31%
18
1.94%
Regent
684
717
732
729
33
4.82%
15
2.09%
-3
-0.41%
Riverside
303
324
336
396
21
6.93%
12
3.70%
60
17.86%
Sherwood Rise
1,248
1,311
1,368
1,467
63
5.05%
57
4.35%
99
7.24%
Springs Flat
285
345
372
477
60
21.05%
27
7.83%
105
28.23%
Te Hihi
189
219
234
327
30
15.87%
15
6.85%
93
39.74%
Three Mile Bush
96
99
132
207
3
3.13%
33
33.33%
75
56.82%
Tikipunga East
897
954
1,041
1,110
57
6.35%
87
9.12%
69
6.63%
Tikipunga West
846
903
960
1,038
57
6.74%
57
6.31%
78
8.13%
Vinetown
669
678
693
711
9
1.35%
15
2.21%
18
2.60%
Waiotira-Springfield
423
486
546
663
63
14.89%
60
12.35%
117
21.43%
Waipu
405
438
495
630
33
8.15%
57
13.01%
135
27.27%
Western Hills
63
66
75
81
3
4.76%
9
13.64%
6
8.00%
Whangarei Central
60.00%
16.67%
45
72
72
84
27
Whangaruru Harbour
0
9
3
3
9
Wharekohe-Oakleigh
630
825
921
1,176
195
Whau Valley
864
921
945
972
57
6.60%
24
2.61%
27
2.86%
Woodhill
600
624
651
681
24
4.00%
27
4.33%
30
4.61%
21,624
23,874
25,488
27,993
2,250
10.41%
1,614
6.76%
2,505
9.83%
Total
Version 2.7 July 2008
30.95%
0
0.00%
12
-6
-66.67%
0
0.00%
96
11.64%
255
27.69%
Page 87 of 107
Whangarei District Growth Model Table 42 Growth in Occupied Dwelling Count by Structure Plan Study Area
1991 Avenues
1996
2001
2006
1991-1996
1996-2001
2001-2006
Number
Percent
Number
Percent
Number
Percent
1,695
1,722
1,770
1,842
27
1.59%
48
2.79%
72
4.07%
City Centre
252
288
282
288
36
14.29%
-6
-2.08%
6
2.13%
City Port
12
21
27
27
9
75.00%
6
28.57%
0
0.00%
Hikurangi
462
498
522
543
36
7.79%
24
4.82%
21
4.02%
Kamo-Three Mile Bush
3,102
3,429
3,726
4,161
327
10.54%
297
8.66%
435
11.67%
Kensington
3,324
3,507
3,585
3,741
183
5.51%
78
2.22%
156
4.35%
Marsden Point - Ruakaka
984
1,032
1,092
1,206
48
4.88%
60
5.81%
114
10.44%
Matapouri
96
147
156
153
51
53.13%
9
6.12%
-3
-1.92%
1,146
1,278
1,398
1,557
132
11.52%
120
9.39%
159
11.37%
195
231
246
258
36
18.46%
15
6.49%
12
4.88%
Maunu McLeod Bay & Reotahi Ngunguru
207
276
330
360
69
33.33%
54
19.57%
30
9.09%
Oakura
132
168
132
126
36
27.27%
-36
-21.43%
-6
-4.55%
Otaika-Toetoe
1,512
1,581
1,599
1,644
69
4.56%
18
1.14%
45
2.81%
Parahaki-Onerahi
2,316
2,478
2,604
2,808
162
6.99%
126
5.08%
204
7.83%
204
234
309
384
30
14.71%
75
32.05%
75
24.27%
Pataua
90
141
144
183
51
56.67%
3
2.13%
39
27.08%
Portland
132
165
186
213
33
25.00%
21
12.73%
27
14.52%
Taurikura & Urquharts
150
189
189
201
39
26.00%
0
0.00%
12
6.35%
Tikipunga-Glenbervie
2,079
2,235
2,427
2,682
156
7.50%
192
8.59%
255
10.51%
Tutukaka
228
291
282
339
63
27.63%
-9
-3.09%
57
20.21%
Waipu
327
366
387
492
39
11.93%
21
5.74%
105
27.13%
Waipu Cove & Langs Beach
123
126
165
201
3
2.44%
39
30.95%
36
21.82%
Western Hills
21
24
24
27
3
14.29%
0
0.00%
3
12.50%
18,834
20,493
21,645
23,529
1,659
8.81%
1,152
5.62%
1,884
8.70%
Parua Bay
Structure Plan Total
Version 2.7 July 2008
Page 88 of 107
Whangarei District Growth Model Table 43 High Occupied Dwelling Count Projections by Area Unit 1991 - 2041 1991
1996
2001
2006
2011
2016
2021
2026
2031
2036
2041
Abbey Caves
99
123
150
201
231
249
264
277
290
302
315
Bream Bay
171
189
222
282
377
459
485
510
533
556
579
Bream Head
354
471
498
534
585
650
687
722
755
787
820
Hikurangi
441
462
474
489
507
524
554
582
609
635
661
Horahora
535
321
354
378
387
406
424
448
471
492
514
Inlet-Port Whangarei
0
0
3
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Inlet-Tutukaka Harbour
0
15
21
0
4
7
7
8
8
8
9
Inlet-Whangarei Harbour
0
0
6
0
0
1
1
1
2
2
2
Kamo East
942
987
1,074
1,161
1,339
1,520
1,607
1,689
1,766
1,842
1,919
Kamo West
1,011
1,113
1,185
1,257
1,293
1,319
1,394
1,465
1,532
1,598
1,664
Kensington
546
567
573
600
606
610
645
678
708
739
770
Mairtown
939
1,029
1,065
1,095
1,110
1,118
1,182
1,242
1,298
1,354
1,410
Marsden Point-Ruakaka
951
996
1,041
1,143
1,479
1,795
1,898
1,994
2,085
2,175
2,265
Maungatapere
204
294
366
438
510
555
587
617
645
673
701
Maunu
399
429
474
501
503
506
535
563
588
614
639
Morningside
720
738
759
798
807
820
867
911
952
994
1,035
Ngunguru
402
510
555
633
723
810
856
899
940
981
1,022
Onerahi
669
723
762
810
827
841
889
934
976
1,019
1,061
Opouteke-Tanekaha
933
1,092
1,227
1,431
1,574
1,671
1,767
1,857
1,941
2,025
2,109
Otaika-Portland
222
270
330
351
382
405
428
450
470
491
511
Otangarei
657
663
642
666
669
675
713
750
784
818
851
Parahaki
399
423
426
444
454
467
494
519
542
566
589
Parua Bay
468
561
651
744
860
948
1,002
1,053
1,101
1,149
1,196
Pataua-Whareora
198
255
273
369
419
539
570
599
626
653
681
Port-Limeburners
12
30
36
33
75
118
125
131
137
143
149
Punaruku-Kiripaka
897
1,119
1,236
1,350
1,649
1,925
2,035
2,138
2,235
2,332
2,429
Raumanga East
537
555
558
579
584
589
622
654
684
713
743
Raumanga West
885
915
927
945
978
1,003
1,061
1,115
1,165
1,216
1,266
Regent
684
717
732
729
736
742
784
824
862
899
936
Riverside
303
324
336
396
411
422
446
469
490
511
533
1,248
1,311
1,368
1,467
1,533
1,552
1,641
1,724
1,802
1,880
1,958
Springs Flat
285
345
372
477
522
642
679
713
746
778
810
Te Hihi
189
219
234
327
398
450
476
500
523
546
568
96
99
132
207
258
288
304
320
334
349
363
Tikipunga East
897
954
1,041
1,110
1,127
1,147
1,213
1,274
1,332
1,390
1,447
Tikipunga West
846
903
960
1,038
1,076
1,096
1,158
1,217
1,272
1,328
1,383
Vinetown
669
678
693
711
713
713
754
792
828
864
900
Waiotira-Springfield
423
486
546
663
859
1,011
1,069
1,123
1,174
1,225
1,276
Waipu
Sherwood Rise
Three Mile Bush
405
438
495
630
872
1,085
1,147
1,206
1,260
1,315
1,370
Western Hills
63
66
75
81
82
89
94
98
103
107
112
Whangarei Central
45
72
72
84
88
96
102
107
112
117
122
Whangaruru Harbour
0
9
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
4
4
Wharekohe-Oakleigh
630
825
921
1,176
1,327
1,443
1,525
1,603
1,676
1,748
1,821
Whau Valley
864
921
945
972
998
1,013
1,071
1,125
1,176
1,227
1,278
Woodhill Grand Total
Version 2.7 July 2008
600
624
651
681
692
710
750
788
824
860
896
21,624
23,874
25,488
27,993
30,647
33,049
34,939
36,717
38,381
40,043
41,704
Page 89 of 107
Whangarei District Growth Model Table 44 High Dwelling Count Projections by Structure Plan Study Area 1991
1996
2001
2006
2011
2016
2021
2026
2031
2036
2041
1,695
1,722
1,770
1,842
1,860
1,881
1,989
2,090
2,185
2,279
2,374
City Centre
252
288
282
288
295
307
324
341
356
372
387
City Port
12
21
27
27
42
55
58
61
63
66
69
Hikurangi
462
498
522
543
566
586
619
651
680
710
739 6,258
Avenues
Kamo-Three Mile Bush
3,102
3,429
3,726
4,161
4,551
4,959
5,243
5,509
5,759
6,008
Kensington
3,324
3,507
3,585
3,741
3,789
3,823
4,041
4,247
4,439
4,632
4,824
Marsden Point - Ruakaka
984
1,032
1,092
1,206
1,638
2,032
2,148
2,257
2,360
2,462
2,564
Matapouri
96
147
156
153
195
224
237
249
260
272
283 2,214
Maunu
1,146
1,278
1,398
1,557
1,666
1,755
1,855
1,950
2,038
2,126
McLeod Bay & Reotahi
195
231
246
258
282
310
328
344
360
376
391
Ngunguru
207
276
330
360
378
398
421
443
463
483
503
Oakura
132
168
132
126
168
215
227
238
249
260
271
Otaika-Toetoe
1,512
1,581
1,599
1,644
1,715
1,777
1,878
1,974
2,063
2,153
2,242
Parahaki-Onerahi
2,316
2,478
2,604
2,808
2,923
3,017
3,190
3,352
3,504
3,655
3,807
Parua Bay
204
234
309
384
481
556
588
618
646
674
702
Pataua
90
141
144
183
211
261
276
290
304
317
330
Portland
132
165
186
213
223
233
246
259
270
282
294
Taurikura & Urquharts
150
189
189
201
215
247
261
275
287
300
312
Tikipunga-Glenbervie
2,079
2,235
2,427
2,682
2,790
2,870
3,035
3,189
3,334
3,478
3,622
Tutukaka
228
291
282
339
421
498
527
553
578
604
629
Waipu
327
366
387
492
595
684
723
760
794
829
863
Waipu Cove & Langs Beach
123
126
165
201
344
471
498
523
547
571
594
Western Hills
21
24
24
27
28
32
34
36
38
39
41
18,789
20,427
21,582
23,436
25,373
27,191
28,746
30,209
31,578
32,945
34,312
Structure Plan Total
Version 2.7 July 2008
Page 90 of 107
Whangarei District Growth Model 7. Floor Area Tables Table 45 Growth in Business Floor Area by Area Unit
1991
1996
2001
2006
1991-1996 Number
Percent
1996-2001
2001-2006
Number
Percent
Number
Percent
Abbey Caves
9,713
9,713
9,983
9,983
0
0.00%
270
2.78%
0
0.00%
Hikurangi
13,210
20,530
20,530
20,628
7,320
55.41%
0
0.00%
98
0.48%
Kamo East
14,614
15,024
18,296
19,325
410
2.81%
3,272
21.78%
1,029
5.62%
Kamo West
5,164
5,592
5,882
6,329
428
8.29%
290
5.19%
447
7.60%
Kensington
2,889
2,924
2,924
2,924
35
1.21%
0
0.00%
0
0.00%
191
212
212
212
21
10.99%
0
0.00%
0
0.00%
Marsden Point-Ruakaka
22,652
307,046
315,974
325,537
284,394
1255.49%
8,928
2.91%
9,563
3.03%
Maungatapere
6,507
7,567
10,410
11,364
1,060
16.29%
2,843
37.57%
954
9.16%
2.52%
16,055
66.98%
3,637
Mairtown
Maunu Morningside Ngunguru
0
0
0
150
23,381
23,971
40,026
43,663
0 590
0
150 9.09%
283
299
299
299
16
5.65%
0
0.00%
0
0.00%
Onerahi
6,917
7,017
7,117
10,327
100
1.45%
100
1.43%
3,210
45.10%
Otaika-Portland
2,047
3,007
3,007
3,007
960
46.90%
0
0.00%
0
0.00%
Otangarei
1,098
1,098
1,098
1,098
0
0.00%
0
0.00%
0
0.00%
Parahaki
0
0
0
1,281
0
Parua Bay
9
9
9
134
0
0.00%
0
0.00%
125
1388.89%
46,127
73,494
107,118
161,946
27,367
59.33%
33,624
45.75%
54,828
51.18%
0
0
0
1,464
Port-Limeburners Raumanga East Raumanga West
0
0
0
0
8,880
0
Regent
45,234
45,332
46,962
56,035
98
Riverside
6,472
6,472
7,490
7,693
177
1,689
2,111
2,111
6,860
16,079
25,909
26,262
Sherwood Rise Springs Flat
0
1,281
0
1,464
0
8,880
0.22%
1,630
3.60%
9,073
19.32%
0
0.00%
1,018
15.73%
203
2.71%
1,512
854.24%
422
24.99%
0
0.00%
9,219
134.39%
9,830
61.14%
353
1.36% 0.00%
Tikipunga West
2,158
2,158
2,408
2,408
0
0.00%
250
11.58%
0
Vinetown
3,068
3,193
3,336
3,359
125
4.07%
143
4.48%
23
0.69%
960
960
960
960
0
0.00%
0
0.00%
0
0.00%
Waiotira-Springfield Waipu
7,049
7,149
9,039
12,016
100
1.42%
1,890
26.44%
2,977
32.94%
169,238
206,683
228,151
311,039
37,445
22.13%
21,468
10.39%
82,888
36.33%
Whau Valley
3,883
3,883
3,883
3,883
0
0.00%
0
0.00%
0
0.00%
Woodhill
1,270
1,270
1,289
1,289
0
0.00%
19
1.50%
0
0.00%
401,171
772,371
874,423
1,055,606
371,200
92.53%
102,052
13.21%
181,183
20.72%
Whangarei Central
Total
Version 2.7 July 2008
Page 91 of 107
Whangarei District Growth Model Table 46 Growth in Business Floor Area by Study Area 1991
1996
2001
1991-1996
2006
Number Avenues
Percent
1996-2001
2001-2006
Number
Percent
Number
Percent
21,987
22,702
37,660
41,320
715
3.25%
14,958
65.89%
3,660
9.72%
City Centre
215,354
252,865
276,083
367,518
37,511
17.42%
23,218
9.18%
91,435
33.12%
City Port
15,004
37,993
55,212
64,978
22,989
153.22%
17,219
45.32%
9,766
17.69%
Hikurangi
13,210
20,530
20,530
20,628
7,320
55.41%
0
0.00%
98
0.48%
Kamo-Three Mile Bush
25,871
35,917
43,409
45,238
10,046
38.83%
7,492
20.86%
1,829
4.21%
Kensington
18,335
18,423
20,561
21,290
88
0.48%
2,138
11.61%
729
3.55%
Marsden Point - Ruakaka
23,612
308,006
316,934
326,497
284,394
1204.45%
8,928
2.90%
9,563
3.02%
365
365
384
534
0
0.00%
19
5.21%
150
39.06%
Maunu Ngunguru
283
299
299
299
16
5.65%
0
0.00%
0
0.00%
Otaika-Toetoe
32,090
37,428
53,833
109,239
5,338
16.63%
16,405
43.83%
55,406
102.92%
Parahaki-Onerahi
16,807
18,419
19,211
23,702
1,612
9.59%
792
4.30%
4,491
23.38%
9
9
9
134
0
0.00%
0
0.00%
125
1388.89%
1,080
1,080
1,080
1,080
0
0.00%
0
0.00%
0
0.00%
Parua Bay Portland Tikipunga-Glenbervie
3,355
3,355
9,505
9,505
0
0.00%
6,150
183.31%
0
0.00%
Waipu
7,049
7,149
9,039
12,016
100
1.42%
1,890
26.44%
2,977
32.94%
394,411
764,540
863,749
1,043,978
370,129
93.84%
99,209
12.98%
180,229
20.87%
Structure Plan Total
Version 2.7 July 2008
Page 92 of 107
Whangarei District Growth Model Table 47 Regression Analysis between Floor Area by Business Environment and Key Drivers Business Environment
Category
B1
Coastal
B1
Rural
B1
Rural Res
Employment Figures (FTEs)
Number of Business
Regional Economic Activity
Population
National Labour Force
B1
Urban
62.86%
88.21%
95.24%
B2
Coastal
99.26%
94.89%
96.23%
B2
Rural
61.05%
65.85%
72.33%
B2
Rural Res
96.88%
51.90%
72.06%
B2
Urban
53.00%
80.53%
93.20%
B3
Coastal
97.07%
81.46%
85.20%
B3
Rural
96.83%
95.81%
96.04%
B3
Rural Res
19.19%
84.48%
69.65%
B3
Urban
62.49%
82.53%
95.95%
B4
Coastal
85.13%
58.32%
62.38%
B4
Rural
74.06%
91.16%
88.19%
B4
Rural Res
93.67%
55.23%
77.56%
B4
Urban
78.57%
90.42%
96.68%
Coastal
97.67%
98.41%
69.36%
80.43%
63.08%
Rural
74.55%
84.89%
87.06%
88.75%
85.46%
Rural Res
85.81%
68.10%
84.31%
63.42%
77.54%
Urban
55.63%
99.64%
95.51%
90.57%
98.13%
B1
63.97%
91.66%
90.56%
98.00%
95.24%
B2
57.13%
98.76%
90.79%
95.63%
94.96%
B3
67.27%
98.41%
96.69%
94.15%
97.13%
B4
99.22%
95.00%
78.48%
69.35%
72.43%
Version 2.7 July 2008
Page 93 of 107
Whangarei District Growth Model Table 48 High Floor Area Projections by Area Unit
1991
1996
2001
2006
2011
2016
2021
2026
2031
2036
2041
9,713
9,713
9,983
9,983
11,153
11,790
12,160
12,511
12,842
13,181
13,546
Hikurangi
13,210
20,530
20,530
20,628
23,046
24,362
25,126
25,853
26,535
27,236
27,990
Kamo East
14,614
15,024
18,296
19,325
21,590
22,823
23,539
24,220
24,859
25,515
26,222
Kamo West
5,164
5,592
5,882
6,329
7,071
7,474
7,709
7,932
8,141
8,356
8,588
Kensington
2,889
2,924
2,924
2,924
3,267
3,453
3,562
3,665
3,761
3,861
3,968
Abbey Caves
Mairtown Marsden Point-Ruakaka Maungatapere Maunu Morningside Ngunguru
191
212
212
212
237
250
258
266
273
280
288
22,652
307,046
315,974
325,537
363,690
384,457
396,529
407,988
418,759
429,814
441,720
6,507
7,567
10,410
11,364
12,696
13,421
13,842
14,242
14,618
15,004
15,420
0
0
0
150
168
177
183
188
193
198
204
23,381
23,971
40,026
43,663
48,780
51,566
53,185
54,722
56,167
57,649
59,246
283
299
299
299
334
353
364
375
385
395
406
Onerahi
6,917
7,017
7,117
10,327
11,537
12,196
12,579
12,943
13,284
13,635
14,013
Otaika-Portland
2,047
3,007
3,007
3,007
3,359
3,551
3,663
3,769
3,868
3,970
4,080
Otangarei
1,098
1,098
1,098
1,098
1,227
1,297
1,337
1,376
1,412
1,450
1,490
0
0
0
1,281
1,431
1,513
1,560
1,605
1,648
1,691
1,738
Parahaki Parua Bay Port-Limeburners Raumanga East Raumanga West Regent Riverside Sherwood Rise
9
9
9
134
150
158
163
168
172
177
182
46,127
73,494
107,118
161,946
180,926
191,257
197,262
202,963
208,322
213,821
219,744
0
0
0
1,464
1,636
1,729
1,783
1,835
1,883
1,933
1,986 12,049
0
0
0
8,880
9,921
10,487
10,817
11,129
11,423
11,724
45,234
45,332
46,962
56,035
62,602
66,177
68,255
70,227
72,081
73,984
76,034
6,472
6,472
7,490
7,693
8,595
9,085
9,371
9,641
9,896
10,157
10,439
177
1,689
2,111
2,111
2,358
2,493
2,571
2,646
2,716
2,787
2,864
Springs Flat
6,860
16,079
25,909
26,262
29,340
31,015
31,989
32,914
33,782
34,674
35,635
Tikipunga West
2,158
2,158
2,408
2,408
2,690
2,844
2,933
3,018
3,098
3,179
3,267
Vinetown
3,068
3,193
3,336
3,359
3,753
3,967
4,092
4,210
4,321
4,435
4,558
Waiotira-Springfield
960
960
960
960
1,073
1,134
1,169
1,203
1,235
1,268
1,303
7,049
7,149
9,039
12,016
13,424
14,191
14,636
15,059
15,457
15,865
16,304
169,238
206,683
228,151
311,039
347,493
367,335
378,869
389,819
400,110
410,673
422,049
Whau Valley
3,883
3,883
3,883
3,883
4,338
4,586
4,730
4,866
4,995
5,127
5,269
Woodhill
1,270
1,270
1,289
1,289
1,440
1,522
1,570
1,615
1,658
1,702
1,749
401,171
772,371
874,423
1,055,606
1,179,324
1,246,663
1,285,808
1,322,968
1,357,894
1,393,743
1,432,349
Waipu Whangarei Central
Total
Version 2.7 July 2008
Page 94 of 107
Whangarei District Growth Model Table 49 High Floor Area Projections by Structure Plan Study Area
Avenues City Centre
1991
1996
2001
2006
2011
2016
2021
2026
2031
2036
2041
21,987
22,702
37,660
41,320
46,163
48,799
50,331
51,785
53,153
54,556
56,067
215,354
252,865
276,083
367,518
410,592
434,036
447,665
460,603
472,763
485,243
498,685
City Port
15,004
37,993
55,212
64,978
72,593
76,739
79,148
81,435
83,585
85,792
88,168
Hikurangi
13,210
20,530
20,530
20,628
23,046
24,362
25,126
25,853
26,535
27,236
27,990
Kamo-Three Mile Bush
25,871
35,917
43,409
45,238
50,540
53,426
55,103
56,696
58,193
59,729
61,383
Kensington
18,335
18,423
20,561
21,290
23,785
25,143
25,933
26,682
27,387
28,110
28,888
Marsden Point - Ruakaka
23,612
308,006
316,934
326,497
364,762
385,590
397,698
409,191
419,994
431,082
443,023
365
365
384
534
597
631
650
669
687
705
725
Maunu Ngunguru
283
299
299
299
334
353
364
375
385
395
406
Otaika-Toetoe
32,090
37,428
53,833
109,239
122,042
129,010
133,061
136,907
140,521
144,231
148,226
Parahaki-Onerahi
16,807
18,419
19,211
23,702
26,480
27,992
28,871
29,705
30,489
31,294
32,161
Parua Bay
9
9
9
134
150
158
163
168
172
177
182
Portland
1,080
1,080
1,080
1,080
1,207
1,275
1,316
1,354
1,389
1,426
1,465
Tikipunga-Glenbervie
3,355
3,355
9,505
9,505
10,619
11,225
11,578
11,912
12,227
12,550
12,897
Waipu
7,049
7,149
9,039
12,016
13,424
14,191
14,636
15,059
15,457
15,865
16,304
394,411
764,540
863,749
1,043,978
1,166,333
1,232,930
1,271,644
1,308,395
1,342,936
1,378,390
1,416,571
Structure Plan Total
Version 2.7 July 2008
Page 95 of 107
Whangarei District Growth Model 8. Impervious Area Tables Table 50 Regression Analysis between Impervious Area by Environment and Key Drivers Business Environment
Category
B1
Coastal
B1
Rural
B1
Rural Res
Employment Figures (FTEs)
Number of Business
Regional Economic Activity
Population
National Labour Force
B1
Urban
9.33%
11.89%
12.42%
11.11%
13.31%
B2
Coastal
38.61%
0.03%
0.01%
5.42%
0.00%
B2
Rural
23.45%
76.72%
77.41%
82.66%
78.50%
B2
Rural Res
B2
Urban
70.22%
99.28%
99.13%
99.47%
98.87%
B3
Coastal
43.74%
96.20%
96.51%
83.92%
96.98%
B3
Rural
35.35%
86.76%
87.31%
91.36%
88.18%
B3
Rural Res
80.11%
98.13%
97.90%
93.85%
97.51%
B3
Urban
72.63%
98.75%
98.56%
99.01%
98.23%
B4
Coastal
0.03%
38.54%
39.34%
19.18%
40.64%
B4
Rural
70.99%
18.16%
17.53%
12.82%
16.54%
B4
Rural Res
45.39%
94.70%
95.06%
98.60%
95.62%
B4
Urban
76.96%
97.41%
97.14%
97.78%
96.68%
L1
Coastal
38.90%
94.10%
94.48%
80.15%
95.07%
L1
Rural
31.28%
83.70%
84.30%
88.78%
85.25%
L1
Rural Res
40.95%
92.52%
92.94%
97.35%
93.61%
L1
Urban
55.72%
99.57%
99.67%
99.39%
99.80%
L2
Coastal
L2
Rural
L2
Rural Res
L2
Urban
98.31%
74.26%
73.54%
75.32%
72.37%
L3
Coastal
47.22%
97.42%
97.68%
86.40%
98.06%
L3
Rural
8.38%
7.02%
7.44%
11.25%
8.15%
L3
Rural Res
32.45%
87.24%
87.78%
93.79%
88.63%
L3
Urban
44.32%
96.80%
97.08%
96.35%
97.51%
Coastal
21.08%
81.72%
82.34%
62.57%
83.34%
Rural
95.09%
88.99%
88.47%
83.94%
87.61%
Rural Res
36.45%
89.91%
90.40%
95.66%
91.16%
Urban
53.35%
99.20%
99.34%
98.97%
99.54%
B1
8.06%
11.89%
12.42%
12.24%
13.31%
B2
66.97%
99.92%
99.87%
99.89%
99.76%
B3
96.02%
81.94%
81.30%
81.51%
80.26%
B4
4.27%
56.25%
57.07%
56.80%
58.37%
L1
53.80%
98.85%
99.02%
98.96%
99.26%
L2
98.84%
74.26%
73.54%
73.78%
72.37%
L3
41.69%
94.85%
95.21%
95.09%
95.75%
Version 2.7 July 2008
Page 96 of 107
Whangarei District Growth Model Table 51 High Impervious Surface Area Projections by Area Unit
1988
1994
2006
2011
2016
2021
2026
2031
2036
2041
Abbey Caves
45,192
38,282
94,370
101,492
106,160
109,343
113,158
116,727
120,316
124,024
Bream Head
556,287
644,384
1,111,343
1,167,261
1,207,746
1,240,797
1,311,084
1,377,202
1,439,111
1,498,473
Hikurangi
403,353
334,352
353,375
373,633
387,790
398,693
418,793
437,682
455,625
473,109
Horahora
376,610
436,229
665,062
698,116
722,131
741,845
784,279
824,198
861,535
897,288
Inlet-Port Whangarei
3,778
3,527
3,773
4,084
4,285
4,417
4,545
4,664
4,789
4,922
Inlet-Whangarei Harbour
161,219
185,402
154,455
167,057
175,186
180,546
185,932
190,960
196,169
201,707
Kamo East
746,786
795,742
1,257,038
1,322,989
1,370,181
1,407,995
1,485,044
1,557,502
1,625,628
1,691,254
Kamo West
699,535
828,342
1,145,892
1,204,497
1,246,731
1,280,961
1,352,573
1,419,929
1,483,095
1,543,769 593,210
Kensington
308,236
357,414
440,377
462,955
479,215
492,378
519,849
545,687
569,923
Mairtown
547,240
590,743
611,908
642,419
664,567
682,721
721,673
758,316
792,598
825,438
3,368,223
2,980,464
4,060,914
4,345,485
4,534,994
4,668,511
4,852,526
5,024,994
5,194,796
5,366,647
Maunu
240,004
320,702
603,313
633,539
655,449
673,371
711,646
747,651
781,351
813,650
Morningside
828,327
861,141
917,562
974,180
1,013,020
1,041,968
1,090,516
1,136,103
1,179,870
1,223,013
Ngunguru
172,549
253,439
349,090
366,440
379,045
389,393
411,667
432,620
452,218
470,985
Onerahi
553,812
557,120
885,577
930,036
962,244
988,566
1,044,665
1,097,438
1,146,841
1,194,199
0
148
156
161
165
175
184
192
200
Marsden Point-Ruakaka
Opouteke-Tanekaha Otaika-Portland
370,650
516,141
460,470
497,224
521,037
536,889
553,683
569,375
585,475
602,442
Otangarei
290,440
359,556
380,562
399,593
413,395
424,695
448,870
471,612
492,895
513,288
Parahaki
281,611
402,418
487,959
512,388
530,100
544,593
575,566
604,702
631,971
658,104
Port-Limeburners
2,245,446
2,186,561
2,630,046
2,834,677
2,967,946
3,057,646
3,158,375
3,252,560
3,348,238
3,448,122
Punaruku-Kiripaka
577
810
1,597
1,676
1,734
1,781
1,883
1,979
2,069
2,155
Raumanga East
444,911
406,659
476,272
500,708
518,303
532,542
562,235
590,164
616,363
641,538
Raumanga West
627,023
910,514
1,065,995
1,120,448
1,159,704
1,191,536
1,258,215
1,320,932
1,379,741
1,436,222
Regent
553,248
629,875
611,815
645,722
669,627
688,319
724,179
757,888
789,775
820,701
Riverside
203,503
294,972
391,404
411,901
426,576
438,344
462,369
484,963
506,202
526,657
Sherwood Rise
842,737
1,114,287
1,200,005
1,260,477
1,304,239
1,339,942
1,415,753
1,487,066
1,553,849
1,617,895
Springs Flat
489,527
552,309
637,705
685,467
716,820
738,275
764,382
788,816
813,319
838,579
Te Hihi
62,606
98,187
288,161
302,482
312,888
321,429
339,815
357,112
373,289
388,780
Three Mile Bush
64,003
87,709
427,609
448,861
464,302
476,978
504,261
529,927
553,933
576,921
Tikipunga East
689,451
777,644
923,887
969,829
1,003,203
1,030,594
1,089,519
1,144,953
1,196,802
1,246,456
Tikipunga West
716,230
751,889
1,100,249
1,156,466
1,196,991
1,229,849
1,298,657
1,363,376
1,424,065
1,482,352
Vinetown
365,711
386,373
403,595
424,972
440,228
452,401
476,956
500,046
521,777
542,734
Waiotira-Springfield
43,527
132,401
131,795
139,677
145,126
149,244
156,445
163,208
169,670
176,008
Western Hills
84,394
92,334
205,186
215,384
222,794
228,876
241,967
254,282
265,801
276,831
Whangarei Central
776,139
789,039
767,159
830,132
870,707
897,394
923,795
948,437
974,036
1,001,327
Wharekohe-Oakleigh
10,897
8,243
1,261
1,324
1,370
1,407
1,487
1,563
1,633
1,701
Whau Valley
545,785
651,003
815,931
856,930
886,625
910,882
962,536
1,011,126
1,056,617
1,100,230
Woodhill
406,734
429,812
559,147
587,177
607,492
624,105
659,562
692,917
724,138
754,063
19,126,299
20,766,020
26,622,007
28,197,853
29,290,109
30,119,393
31,588,633
32,968,863
34,285,714
35,574,993
Grand Total
Version 2.7 July 2008
Page 97 of 107
Whangarei District Growth Model Table 52 High Impervious Surface Area Projections by Structure Plan Study Area
Avenues City Centre
1988
1994
2006
2011
2016
2021
2026
2031
2036
2041
1,380,579
1,469,730
1,617,520
1,709,721
1,774,247
1,824,071
1,916,558
2,003,474
2,085,977
2,166,304
992,216
1,093,084
975,706
1,051,942
1,101,548
1,134,877
1,171,955
1,206,620
1,241,890
1,278,765
City Port
1,732,003
1,708,381
1,563,208
1,692,329
1,775,423
1,829,928
1,882,996
1,932,519
1,984,117
2,039,276
Hikurangi
417,724
334,366
371,436
392,592
407,401
418,839
440,092
460,065
479,022
497,477
Kamo-Three Mile Bush
2,102,618
2,338,334
3,778,867
3,979,189
4,122,125
4,236,127
4,465,880
4,681,924
4,885,271
5,081,397
Kensington
2,002,450
2,340,947
2,732,534
2,871,991
2,972,554
3,054,133
3,225,166
3,386,039
3,536,875
3,681,725
Marsden Point - Ruakaka
3,379,850
2,988,320
4,101,396
4,389,311
4,580,972
4,715,900
4,901,289
5,075,040
5,246,178
5,419,457
Maunu
832,625
983,860
1,740,943
1,827,753
1,890,766
1,942,417
2,053,237
2,157,490
2,255,024
2,348,457
McLeod Bay & Reotahi
215,582
160,175
479,078
502,888
520,187
534,388
564,955
593,711
620,607
646,362
Ngunguru
172,549
253,439
349,090
366,440
379,045
389,393
411,667
432,620
452,218
470,985
Otaika-Toetoe
1,585,398
1,800,051
2,610,478
2,764,966
2,872,052
2,953,364
3,097,464
3,232,835
3,361,986
3,488,428
Parahaki-Onerahi
1,665,290
2,045,559
2,510,413
2,639,066
2,731,729
2,806,761
2,963,410
3,110,748
3,248,949
3,381,727
Parua Bay
161,328
233,030
353,422
371,671
384,788
395,373
417,301
437,926
457,286
475,901
Portland
380,048
488,640
459,107
495,771
519,524
535,332
552,059
567,687
583,726
600,632
1,559,678
1,725,772
2,213,466
2,328,890
2,411,623
2,478,096
2,614,410
2,742,606
2,863,062
2,979,017
31,965
27,343
88,734
93,145
96,349
98,980
104,640
109,966
114,947
119,717
18,611,902
19,991,030
25,945,397
27,477,664
28,540,333
29,347,980
30,783,080
32,131,270
33,417,134
34,675,627
Tikipunga-Glenbervie Western Hills Grand Total
Version 2.7 July 2008
Page 98 of 107
Whangarei District Growth Model 9. Landuse Capacity Tables Table 53 Vacant Land Parcels25 by Area Unit Area Unit
Current Number of Occupied Land Parcels
Total Number of Land Parcels
Abbey Caves
84
295
379
Bream Bay
176
936
1,112
Bream Head
294
946
1,240
Hikurangi
83
521
604
Horahora
100
368
468
Inlet-Port Whangarei
3
7
10
Inlet-Tutukaka Harbour
2
5
7
Inlet-Whangarei Harbour
22
55
77
Kamo East
143
1,082
1,225
Kamo West
75
1,146
1,221
Kensington
33
469
502
Mairtown
45
852
897
Marsden Point-Ruakaka
944
1,617
2,561
Maungatapere
96
600
696
Maunu
26
528
554
Morningside
51
669
720
344
838
1,182
Ngunguru Onerahi
75
806
881
Opouteke-Tanekaha
815
3,143
3,958
Otaika-Portland
94
510
604
Otangarei
27
550
577
Parahaki
28
428
456
Parua Bay
290
1,026
1,316
Pataua-Whareora
199
891
1,090
Port-Limeburners
14
34
48
Punaruku-Kiripaka
1,121
3,212
4,333
Raumanga East
30
494
524
Raumanga West
108
869
977
Regent
84
492
576
Riverside
49
293
342
Sherwood Rise
63
1,381
1,444
Springs Flat
126
542
668
Te Hihi
136
362
498
Three Mile Bush
122
339
461
Tikipunga East
27
957
984
Tikipunga West
131
1,006
1,137
Vinetown
51
479
530
Waiotira-Springfield
556
2,129
2,685
Waipu
535
1,190
1,725
10
96
106
Western Hills Whangarei Central
26
31
57
Whangaruru Harbour
40
22
62
Wharekohe-Oakleigh
425
2,049
2,474
Whau Valley
58
938
996
Woodhill
68
593
661
7,829
35,796
43,625
Grand Total
25
Current Number of Vacant Land Parcels
Land Parcels Zoned Living 1, 2, 3, Countryside and Coastal Countryside.
Version 2.7 July 2008
Page 99 of 107
Whangarei District Growth Model Table 54 Vacant Land Parcels26 by Structure Plan Study Area Current Number of Vacant Land Parcels
Current Number of Occupied Land Parcels
Total Number of Land Parcels
Avenues
118
1,527
1,645
City Centre
47
180
227
City Port
7
7
14
Hikurangi
180
659
839
Kamo-Three Mile Bush
681
4,356
5,037
Kensington
259
2,977
3,236
Marsden Point - Ruakaka
977
1,738
2,715
Area Unit
Matapouri
194
473
667
Maunu
330
1,539
1,869
McLeod Bay & Reotahi
142
376
518
Ngunguru
113
438
551
Oakura
194
394
588
Otaika-Toetoe
186
1,530
1,716
Parahaki-Onerahi
234
2,852
3,086
Parua Bay
209
606
815
Pataua
109
468
577
70
356
426
Portland Taurikura & Urquharts
111
404
515
Tikipunga-Glenbervie
288
2,614
2,902
Tutukaka
253
504
757
Waipu
249
621
870
Waipu Cove & Langs Beach
312
687
999
8
30
38
5,271
25,336
30,607
Western Hills Grand Total
26
Land Parcels Zoned Living 1, 2, 3, Countryside and Coastal Countryside.
Version 2.7 July 2008
Page 100 of 107
Whangarei District Growth Model 10. Marsden Point – Ruakaka Development Model Current Situation The Marsden Point – Ruakaka has a land area of approximately 3,225 hectares (32 km 2 ), 49% of which is zoned Countryside/Coastal Countryside, 29% is zoned Business, with the remaining 22% zoned residential. 23% of the Marsden Point – Ruakaka area contains no business or dwelling, compared with 2.93% for the Whangarei District. The population of the Marsden Point – Ruakaka area is 3,114, which is 4% of the Whangarei District’s population. The holiday population increases by 42% to 7,370 between Christmas and New Year. The current population growth rate is 10.07% over the five year period from 2001-2006, which is higher than the District’s average of 9.35 for the same period. The Marsden Point – Ruakaka is currently experiencing rapid development. The number of subdivision consent applications has increased by 2,040% between 2000 and 2008, with the number of lots created increasing by 1,225% over the same period. For comparison, the number of subdivision consent applications for the Whangarei District has increased by 1,160%, with the number of lots created increasing by 1,076% over the same period.
Version 2.7 July 2008
Page 101 of 107
Whangarei District Growth Model The Study Area
KA RO
RE
RO R
D
The Marsden Point – Ruakaka study area is based on the Marsden Point Structure Plan (adopted in 2000). The study area is made up of 38 Meshblocks, 35 of which make up the Marsden Point – Ruakaka Area Unit, and 3 neighbouring Meshblocks from the Waiotira-Springfield Area Unit.
O
TA H I RD
MB0074210 MB0079010
MB0074211
RD
MB0079403
ON E
MB0078900
IRI R AU
PY LE
RD AI
MB0078800
MB0079002
IN T
IW
PO
K AH
TR EE
TA
RD
MB0079402
MB0079500
MB0079003
MB0079102
RD
RD
MB0079101
HW
Y MB0079601
PO RT
M
DE N ARS
MAIR RD
A RAM
MC EW AN
DRV
MB0078302 MB0079701
IE
RD
Waiotira-Springfield
SIM
MB0079603
SA LL E
ER D MB0079703
MA
MB0078301
R S DE NP OI NT
MC CA TH
FLYG ER RD
RD
MB0079200
RD MB0078401 MB0079605
Marsden Point-Ruakaka MB0079704 MB0078500 MB0078601
PR IN
OT RE SC
RD
RD
S CE
1 SH
T
MB0079803
P
MB0079804 MB0078700
Legend Area Units Meshblocks
MB0079802
Study Area
Figure 45 Marsden Point – Ruakaka Study Area
Version 2.7 July 2008
Page 102 of 107
Whangarei District Growth Model Development
O
TA H I RD
O IN
IR
D
T RD
KA RO
RO
RE
RD
The Marsden Point – Ruakaka area has been undergoing considerable development, with 107 subdivision consent applications for 2,347 new lots since 2000.
KA H
ON
R AI
E
IW D
IRI R AU
DRV
A RAM RD
MC EW AN RD
HW
Y
RD
MA
IE
RSDE NP OI NT
MC CA TH
FLYGER RD
RD
PO RT
M
DE N ARS
MAIR RD
PY L ER D
TA
TR EE P
H
PI R I
ER D
TA MI NG IS
T
RD
PR ES CO TT
RD
SALL E
SIM
PR IN S CE RD
1 SH
Legend 223 Proposed Completed Study Area
Figure 46 Subdivision in the Marsden Point – Ruakaka Study Area
Version 2.7 July 2008
Page 103 of 107
Whangarei District Growth Model Table 55 Subdivision consent Applications for the Marsden Point – Ruakaka Study Area Subdivision consent Application
2000
2001
11 Lots
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2008 YTD
1
120 Industrial Lots
1
15 Lot Subdivision
1
152 Lots - 4 Stages 36,37,51,16
1
190 Industrial Lots - 2 Stages 84,106 2 Lot Subdivision
2007
1 1
2 Lots
2
25 Lot Subdivision
1
1
2
Number of Applications
Number of Lots
1
11
1
120
1
15
1
152
1
190
1
2
5
10
1
25
3 Lots
1
1
3
311 Lots - 6 Stages 57,54,50,61,40,48
1
1
311
1
32
1
33
32 Lots
1
33 Lots 4 Lot Subdivision
1 1
1
410 LOTS - 9 Stages Of 50 Lots
1
42 Lots
1
5 Lots
1
52 Lots
1
58 Lots
1
80 Lots - 3 Stages 20,20,40
1
83 Lots
1
89 Lots Plus Balance Lots
1
Create 2 Allotments
1
Create 2 Allots
1
Create 2 New Allotments
1
2
1
Create 2 Residential Allotments
1
Create 2 Residential Lots
1
Create 3 Allotments
4
Create 4 Allotments
1
Create 5 Allotments
2
Create 5 Allotments From 2 Titles
1
Create 5 Lots
1
Create 6 Allotments
1
Create 6 Lots
1 1
Create 7 Allotments Create 8 Allotments
2
1 1
Eight Lots
1
Five Lots Four Lots
1
1
2
1
2
Seventy One Lots
1
Stage 1 Of Waterways & Marina Development 1
3
1
Three Lots - Two Stages
1
1
58
1
80
1
83
1
89
6
12
1
2
1
2
1
2
1
2
4
12
1
4
2
10
1
5
1
5
2
12
1
6
1
7
1
8
1
8
4
20
4
16
6
18
1
3
1
198
1
22
3
6
6
9
7
6
4
1
Total Number of Applications
5
10
10
14
26
20
11
9
2
218
33
56
42
475
1073
241
199
10
Version 2.7 July 2008
52
1
Unit Title For Six Units
Total Number of Lots
5
1
1
1
Two Lots
42
71
2
Two Lot Subdivision From Two Existing Cross Lease Titles
1 1
93
1
Two Lot Subdivision
410
1
1
Twenty Two Lots
8
1
1
1
Three Lots
To Subdivide 3 Lots Into 198 Lots - 5 Stages 30,45,31,58
1
2
1
2
32
64
1
6
107 2347
Page 104 of 107
Whangarei District Growth Model
Subdivision Growth in the Marsden Point - Ruakaka Study Area 120
2500
Number of New Lots
80 1500 60 1000 40
500
0 2000
Number of Subdivision Applications
100
2000
20
2001
2002
2003 New Lots
2004
2005
2006
2007
0 2008
Subdivision Applications
Figure 47 Subdivision Growth in the Marsden Point – Ruakaka Study Area
Version 2.7 July 2008
Page 105 of 107
Whangarei District Growth Model The Model A development model was developed for the Marsden Point – Ruakaka study area based on development trends and the projected number of lots. The model was developed to assist in the calculations of development contributions for this area, as the rate of subdivision development exceeds take-up by approximately 50%. The model uses the number of residential and business lots already in existence in 2006 as the baseline, and distributes subdivision development over the next 35 years to 2041. Table 56 Marsden Point – Ruakaka Development Model – Lots Created 1991
1996
2001
2006
2011
2016
2021
2026
2031
2036
2041
119
122
120
133
187
295
367
380
391
402
414
Residential Lots
2,421
2,487
2,441
2,715
2,914
3,312
3,578
3,760
3,930
4,100
4,270
Total
2,539
2,609
2,561
2,848
3,101
3,607
3,945
4,140
4,321
4,503
4,684
Business Lots
Marsden Point - Ruakaka Study Area Development Model 1,000
5,000 4,500
Actual
Forecast 800
4,000
600
3,000 2,500
400
2,000
Business Lots
Residential Lots
3,500
1,500 200
1,000 500 0 1991
1996
2001
2006
2011 Total
2016 Residential
2021
2026
2031
2036
0 2041
Business
Figure 48 Marsden Point – Ruakaka Development Model
Version 2.7 July 2008
Page 106 of 107
Whangarei District Growth Model
Table 57 Marsden Point – Ruakaka Growth Model27 – Projected Take-Up
Population Dwellings Business Floor Area (m2)
1991
1996
2001
2006
2011
2016
2021
2026
2031
2036
2041
2,808
2,883
2,829
3,114
4,150
5,096
5,387
5,662
5,918
6,174
6,431
984
1,032
1,092
1,206
1,638
2,032
2,148
2,257
2,360
2,462
2,564
23,612
308,006
316,934
326,497
364,762
385,590
397,698
409,191
419,994
431,082
443,023
Marsden Point - Ruakaka Study Area Growth Model 8,000
500,000
Actual
7,000
450,000
Forecast
400,000 350,000 5,000
300,000 250,000
4,000
200,000
3,000
150,000
Business Floor Area m2
Population/Dwellings
6,000
2,000 100,000 1,000 0 1991
50,000
1996
2001
Population
2006
Dwellings
2011
2016
2021
Business Floor Area (m2)
2026
2031
2036
0 2041
Actual Business Floor Area (m2)
Figure 49 Marsden Point – Ruakaka Growth Model
27
Based on High Projections.
Version 2.7 July 2008
Page 107 of 107
Whangarei District Growth Model 3. Growth Regression Analysis Population and Dwellings vs. Building Consents and New Lots 30,000
80,000
R2 = 0.9737
R2 = 0.9956 70,000
25,000
Occupied Dwellings
Population
60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
20,000 5,000
10,000 0
0
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
New Lots
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
New Lots
30,000
80,000
R2 = 0.9832
R2 = 0.8764
70,000
25,000
Occupied Dwellings
Population
60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
20,000 5,000
10,000 0
0
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
0
500
1,000
New Dwellings
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
New Dwellings
5,000
30,000
R2 = 0.921
4,500
R2 = 0.9484 25,000
4,000 Occupied Dwellings
3,500 New Dwellings
1,500
3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
500 0 0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
New Lots
Version 2.7 July 2008
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
0 66,000 67,000 68,000 69,000 70,000 71,000 72,000 73,000 74,000 75,000 Population
Page 79 of 107
Whangarei District Growth Model 4.
Development Tables
Table 35 Business and Residential Development by Area Unit 2001-2006 New Dwellings BCs Abbey Caves
35
Bream Bay
41
Bream Head
Commercial BCs
Residential Subdivision (Number of Lots)
1
250
85
37
124
Hikurangi
1
40
Horahora
4
45
Inlet-Tutukaka Harbour
8
Kamo East
34
Kamo West
37
Kensington
7
368 117 1
19
Mairtown
27
Marsden Point-Ruakaka
146
4
883
Maungatapere
46
1
127
Maunu Morningside Ngunguru Onerahi Opouteke-Tanekaha Otaika-Portland
60
4 5 59
39 2
267
178
3
463
24
2
76
14
60
13 9
Parua Bay
63
Pataua-Whareora
49
Port-Limeburners
4
Punaruku-Kiripaka
144
34 2
311 186
19
93 875
Raumanga East
1
Raumanga West
4
1
72
Regent
1
1
24
Riverside
9
2
17
29
Sherwood Rise
95
Springs Flat
63
Te Hihi
98
238
Three Mile Bush
134
222
Tikipunga East
11
44
Tikipunga West
32
289
4
8
Vinetown Waiotira-Springfield Waipu
100 2
114
67
4
383
122
2
660
Western Hills
4
Whangarei Central
1
8
11
Wharekohe-Oakleigh
146
3
420
Whau Valley
19
46
Woodhill
6
80
Total
Version 2.7 July 2008
120
13
Otangarei Parahaki
Commercial Subdivision (Number of Lots)
1785
84
34
58
7347
204
Page 80 of 107
Whangarei District Growth Model Table 36 Business and Residential Development by Structure Plan Area 2001-2006 New Dwellings BCs Avenues
12
City Centre
1
City Port Hikurangi Kamo-Three Mile Bush
Residential Subdivision (Number of Lots)
5
27
4
32 51
384
1,073
46
Marsden Point - Ruakaka
156
179 2
1,202
26
177
Maunu
120
368
McLeod Bay & Reotahi
11
54
Ngunguru
22
114
Oakura
12
Otaika-Toetoe
15
Parahaki-Onerahi
158
166
2
274
262
51
Pataua
16
96
Portland
16
33
Taurikura & Urquharts
13
57
Tikipunga-Glenbervie
110
461
Tutukaka
41
180
Waipu
72
Waipu Cove & Langs Beach
55
Total
Version 2.7 July 2008
1
291 379
3 1,344
204
102 15
Parua Bay
Western Hills
Commercial Subdivision (Number of Lots)
69
4
Kensington
Matapouri
Commercial BCs
2 29
5,649
204
Page 81 of 107
Whangarei District Growth Model Figure 44 Development Trends for the Whangarei District 1992-2008 1,600
Number of New Lots/ New Dwellings
1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200
New Lots
Version 2.7 July 2008
New Dwellings
New Dwellings
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
0
New Lots
Page 82 of 107
Whangarei District Growth Model 5. Household Tables - Population Table 37 Usually Resident Population Growth Rates by Area Unit 1996
Abbey Caves
312
417
411
567
105
33.65%
Bream Bay
465
516
618
786
51
10.97%
Bream Head
921
1,224
1,227
1,251
303
32.90%
Hikurangi
1,446
1,434
1,422
1,425
-12
Horahora
1,005
948
978
1,023
-57
Inlet-Port Whangarei
0
12
9
12
Inlet-Tutukaka Harbour
0
18
24
Inlet-Whangarei Harbour
2001
2006
1991-1996
1991
Number
Percent
1996-2001 Number
2001-2006
Percent
Number
Percent
-6
-1.44%
156
37.96%
102
19.77%
168
27.18%
3
0.25%
24
1.96%
-0.83%
-12
-0.84%
3
0.21%
-5.67%
30
3.16%
45
4.60%
12
-3
-25.00%
3
33.33%
3
18
6
33.33%
-21
-87.50% 350.00%
0
15
6
27
15
-9
-60.00%
21
Kamo East
2,808
2,799
3,039
3,165
-9
-0.32%
240
8.57%
126
4.15%
Kamo West
2,754
2,814
2,976
3,150
60
2.18%
162
5.76%
174
5.85% 3.48%
Kensington
1,263
1,299
1,293
1,338
36
2.85%
-6
-0.46%
45
Mairtown
2,091
2,316
2,340
2,358
225
10.76%
24
1.04%
18
0.77%
Marsden Point-Ruakaka
2,691
2,757
2,655
2,913
66
2.45%
-102
-3.70%
258
9.72% 20.96%
Maungatapere
678
918
1,059
1,281
240
35.40%
141
15.36%
222
Maunu
1,113
1,233
1,296
1,350
120
10.78%
63
5.11%
54
4.17%
Morningside
2,034
2,052
2,061
2,142
18
0.88%
9
0.44%
81
3.93%
Ngunguru
1,017
1,266
1,290
1,422
249
24.48%
24
1.90%
132
10.23%
Onerahi
2,025
2,115
1,995
2,100
90
4.44%
-120
-5.67%
105
5.26%
Opouteke-Tanekaha
3,126
3,483
3,819
4,485
357
11.42%
336
9.65%
666
17.44%
720
813
981
996
93
12.92%
168
20.66%
15
1.53% 11.26%
Otaika-Portland Otangarei
2,217
2,262
2,025
2,253
45
2.03%
-237
-10.48%
228
Parahaki
1,164
1,167
1,173
1,158
3
0.26%
6
0.51%
-15
-1.28%
Parua Bay
1,299
1,560
1,686
1,944
261
20.09%
126
8.08%
258
15.30%
Pataua-Whareora
510
708
759
993
198
38.82%
51
7.20%
234
30.83%
Port-Limeburners
36
33
51
48
-3
-8.33%
18
54.55%
-3
-5.88%
Punaruku-Kiripaka
2,574
3,129
3,372
3,651
555
21.56%
243
7.77%
279
8.27%
Raumanga East
1,755
1,749
1,647
1,749
-6
-0.34%
-102
-5.83%
102
6.19%
Raumanga West
2,889
2,946
2,808
2,994
57
1.97%
-138
-4.68%
186
6.62%
Regent
1,650
1,854
1,722
1,674
204
12.36%
-132
-7.12%
-48
-2.79%
729
792
753
882
63
8.64%
-39
-4.92%
129
17.13%
Riverside Sherwood Rise
3,579
3,513
3,489
3,633
-66
-1.84%
-24
-0.68%
144
4.13%
Springs Flat
867
999
1,131
1,362
132
15.22%
132
13.21%
231
20.42%
Te Hihi
495
594
570
840
99
20.00%
-24
-4.04%
270
47.37%
Three Mile Bush Tikipunga East
336
372
417
645
36
10.71%
45
12.10%
228
54.68%
2,817
2,844
2,778
3,096
27
0.96%
-66
-2.32%
318
11.45%
Tikipunga West
2,625
2,652
2,880
3,024
27
1.03%
228
8.60%
144
5.00%
Vinetown
1,434
1,437
1,443
1,527
3
0.21%
6
0.42%
84
5.82%
Waiotira-Springfield
1,416
1,491
1,557
1,851
75
5.30%
66
4.43%
294
18.88%
Waipu
1,089
1,218
1,278
1,485
129
11.85%
60
4.93%
207
16.20%
Western Hills
204
213
192
231
9
4.41%
-21
-9.86%
39
20.31%
Whangarei Central
8.47%
-33
-17.19%
54
33.96%
3
100.00%
612
23.08%
177
192
159
213
15
Whangaruru Harbour
0
0
3
6
0
Wharekohe-Oakleigh
2,019
2,460
2,652
3,264
441
21.84%
Whau Valley
2,331
2,382
2,394
2,469
51
2.19%
12
0.50%
75
3.13%
Woodhill
1,521
1,650
1,629
1,644
129
8.48%
-21
-1.27%
15
0.92%
62,202
66,666
68,067
74,430
4,464
7.18%
1,401
2.10%
6,363
9.35%
Total
Version 2.7 July 2008
3 192
7.80%
Page 83 of 107
Whangarei District Growth Model
Table 38 Usually Resident Population Growth Rates by Structure Plan Study Area 1991
1996
2001
1991-1996
2006
Number Avenues
Percent
1996-2001 Number
Percent
2001-2006 Number
Percent
4,305
4,386
4,347
4,539
81
1.88%
-39
-0.89%
192
4.42%
City Centre
774
753
723
726
-21
-2.71%
-30
-3.98%
3
0.41%
City Port
24
21
27
27
-3
-12.50%
6
28.57%
0
0.00%
Hikurangi
1,527
1,542
1,560
1,572
15
0.98%
18
1.17%
12
0.77%
Kamo-Three Mile Bush
8,940
9,423
10,104
11,223
483
5.40%
681
7.23%
1,119
11.07%
Kensington
8,352
8,958
8,616
9,039
606
7.26%
-342
-3.82%
423
4.91%
Marsden Point - Ruakaka
2,808
2,883
2,829
3,114
75
2.67%
-54
-1.87%
285
10.07%
198
318
315
372
120
60.61%
-3
-0.94%
57
18.10%
3,207
3,480
3,630
4,047
273
8.51%
150
4.31%
417
11.49%
486
597
606
582
111
22.84%
9
1.51%
-24
-3.96%
Ngunguru
552
666
792
846
114
20.65%
126
18.92%
54
6.82%
Oakura
369
432
345
351
63
17.07%
-87
-20.14%
6
1.74%
Otaika-Toetoe
4,917
4,989
4,803
5,091
72
1.46%
-186
-3.73%
288
6.00%
Parahaki-Onerahi
Matapouri Maunu McLeod Bay & Reotahi
6,765
6,915
6,771
7,161
150
2.22%
-144
-2.08%
390
5.76%
Parua Bay
612
714
867
1,068
102
16.67%
153
21.43%
201
23.18%
Pataua
234
375
393
480
141
60.26%
18
4.80%
87
22.14%
Portland
468
495
543
606
27
5.77%
48
9.70%
63
11.60%
Taurikura & Urquharts
390
519
471
486
129
33.08%
-48
-9.25%
15
3.18%
Tikipunga-Glenbervie
6,525
6,651
6,957
7,677
126
1.93%
306
4.60%
720
10.35%
Tutukaka
570
753
654
753
183
32.11%
-99
-13.15%
99
15.14%
Waipu
912
1,014
1,026
1,188
102
11.18%
12
1.18%
162
15.79%
Waipu Cove & Langs Beach
306
339
402
450
33
10.78%
63
18.58%
48
11.94%
69
90
66
81
21
30.43%
-24
-26.67%
15
22.73%
53,310
56,313
56,847
61,479
3,003
5.63%
534
0.95%
4,632
8.15%
Western Hills Structure Plan Total
Version 2.7 July 2008
Page 84 of 107
Whangarei District Growth Model Table 39 High Population Projections by Area Unit 1991 - 2041 1991
1996
2001
2006
2011
2016
2021
2026
2031
2036
2041
Abbey Caves
312
417
411
567
640
683
722
759
793
828
862
Bream Bay
465
516
618
786
1,015
1,210
1,279
1,344
1,405
1,466
1,527 1,929
Bream Head
921
1,224
1,227
1,251
1,374
1,529
1,616
1,698
1,775
1,852
Hikurangi
1,446
1,434
1,422
1,425
1,469
1,509
1,595
1,677
1,752
1,828
1,904
Horahora
1,005
948
978
1,023
1,070
1,112
1,175
1,235
1,291
1,347
1,403
Inlet-Port Whangarei
0
12
9
12
12
12
13
13
14
15
15
Inlet-Tutukaka Harbour
0
18
24
3
12
20
21
22
23
24
25
Inlet-Whangarei Harbour
0
15
6
27
27
30
32
34
35
37
38
2,808
2,799
3,039
3,165
3,592
4,027
4,258
4,475
4,677
4,880
5,082
Kamo East Kamo West
2,754
2,814
2,976
3,150
3,237
3,299
3,487
3,665
3,831
3,997
4,162
Kensington
1,263
1,299
1,293
1,338
1,352
1,362
1,440
1,513
1,581
1,650
1,718
Mairtown
2,091
2,316
2,340
2,358
2,395
2,413
2,551
2,680
2,802
2,923
3,044
Marsden Point-Ruakaka
2,691
2,757
2,655
2,913
3,720
4,478
4,734
4,975
5,200
5,425
5,651
678
918
1,059
1,281
1,455
1,562
1,652
1,736
1,814
1,893
1,971
Maunu
1,113
1,233
1,296
1,350
1,354
1,363
1,441
1,514
1,583
1,651
1,720
Morningside
2,034
2,052
2,061
2,142
2,164
2,195
2,321
2,439
2,549
2,660
2,770
Ngunguru
1,017
1,266
1,290
1,422
1,637
1,846
1,951
2,051
2,144
2,236
2,329
Onerahi
2,025
2,115
1,995
2,100
2,142
2,174
2,298
2,415
2,525
2,634
2,743
Opouteke-Tanekaha
3,126
3,483
3,819
4,485
4,828
5,061
5,351
5,623
5,878
6,132
6,387
Maungatapere
Otaika-Portland
720
813
981
996
1,070
1,125
1,190
1,250
1,307
1,363
1,420
Otangarei
2,217
2,262
2,025
2,253
2,261
2,274
2,404
2,526
2,641
2,755
2,870
Parahaki
1,164
1,167
1,173
1,158
1,182
1,213
1,283
1,348
1,409
1,470
1,531
Parua Bay
1,299
1,560
1,686
1,944
2,222
2,434
2,573
2,704
2,826
2,949
3,071
Pataua-Whareora
510
708
759
993
1,114
1,402
1,482
1,557
1,628
1,698
1,769
Port-Limeburners
36
33
51
48
150
253
267
281
293
306
319
Punaruku-Kiripaka
2,574
3,129
3,372
3,651
4,369
5,030
5,318
5,588
5,842
6,095
6,347
Raumanga East
1,755
1,749
1,647
1,749
1,761
1,772
1,873
1,969
2,058
2,147
2,236
Raumanga West
2,889
2,946
2,808
2,994
3,072
3,134
3,313
3,482
3,639
3,797
3,954
Regent
1,650
1,854
1,722
1,674
1,690
1,705
1,802
1,894
1,980
2,066
2,152
Riverside
729
792
753
882
917
945
999
1,050
1,097
1,145
1,192
3,579
3,513
3,489
3,633
3,791
3,837
4,056
4,263
4,456
4,649
4,842
Springs Flat
867
999
1,131
1,362
1,469
1,758
1,859
1,953
2,042
2,130
2,219
Te Hihi
495
594
570
840
1,011
1,136
1,201
1,262
1,320
1,377
1,434
Three Mile Bush
336
372
417
645
767
839
887
932
974
1,016
1,058
2,817
2,844
2,778
3,096
3,137
3,185
3,367
3,538
3,699
3,859
4,019
Sherwood Rise
Tikipunga East Tikipunga West
2,625
2,652
2,880
3,024
3,116
3,162
3,343
3,514
3,673
3,832
3,991
Vinetown
1,434
1,437
1,443
1,527
1,531
1,532
1,620
1,702
1,779
1,856
1,933
Waiotira-Springfield
1,416
1,491
1,557
1,851
2,321
2,686
2,839
2,984
3,119
3,254
3,389
Waipu
1,089
1,218
1,278
1,485
2,065
2,578
2,725
2,864
2,994
3,123
3,253
Western Hills
204
213
192
231
234
249
263
277
289
302
314
Whangarei Central
177
192
159
213
223
243
256
269
282
294
306
Whangaruru Harbour
0
0
3
6
6
6
6
7
7
7
8
Wharekohe-Oakleigh
2,019
2,460
2,652
3,264
3,625
3,904
4,128
4,338
4,534
4,730
4,927
Whau Valley
2,331
2,382
2,394
2,469
2,531
2,567
2,714
2,852
2,981
3,110
3,239
Woodhill
1,521
1,650
1,629
1,644
1,670
1,713
1,811
1,903
1,989
2,075
2,161
62,202
66,666
68,067
74,430
80,799
86,564
91,515
96,173
100,530
104,883
109,235
Grand Total
Version 2.7 July 2008
Page 85 of 107
Whangarei District Growth Model Table 40 High Population Projections by Structure Plan Study Area 1991
1996
2001
2006
2011
2016
2021
2026
2031
2036
2041
4,305
4,386
4,347
4,539
4,582
4,633
4,898
5,148
5,381
5,614
5,847
City Centre
774
753
723
726
744
771
815
857
896
934
973
City Port
24
21
27
27
63
93
98
103
108
113
118
Hikurangi
1,527
1,542
1,560
1,572
1,626
1,674
1,770
1,860
1,944
2,029
2,113
Avenues
Kamo-Three Mile Bush
8,940
9,423
10,104
11,223
12,158
13,138
13,889
14,596
15,258
15,918
16,579
Kensington
8,352
8,958
8,616
9,039
9,155
9,235
9,763
10,260
10,725
11,189
11,653
Marsden Point - Ruakaka
2,808
2,883
2,829
3,114
4,150
5,096
5,387
5,662
5,918
6,174
6,431
198
318
315
372
474
543
574
603
631
658
685 5,706
Matapouri Maunu
3,207
3,480
3,630
4,047
4,308
4,522
4,780
5,024
5,251
5,479
McLeod Bay & Reotahi
486
597
606
582
640
707
747
785
821
856
892
Ngunguru
552
666
792
846
889
938
992
1,042
1,089
1,136
1,184
Oakura
369
432
345
351
452
564
596
626
655
683
711
Otaika-Toetoe
4,917
4,989
4,803
5,091
5,260
5,409
5,719
6,010
6,282
6,554
6,826
Parahaki-Onerahi
6,765
6,915
6,771
7,161
7,436
7,662
8,101
8,513
8,899
9,284
9,669
Parua Bay
612
714
867
1,068
1,300
1,482
1,567
1,646
1,721
1,795
1,870
Pataua
234
375
393
480
547
668
706
742
776
810
843
Portland
468
495
543
606
630
654
691
726
759
792
825
Taurikura & Urquharts
390
519
471
486
519
597
631
664
694
724
754
Tikipunga-Glenbervie
10,258
6,525
6,651
6,957
7,677
7,937
8,129
8,594
9,032
9,441
9,850
Tutukaka
570
753
654
753
950
1,135
1,200
1,261
1,318
1,375
1,432
Waipu
912
1,014
1,026
1,188
1,435
1,648
1,743
1,831
1,914
1,997
2,080
Waipu Cove & Langs Beach
306
339
402
450
793
1,098
1,161
1,220
1,275
1,330
1,386
Western Hills
69
90
66
81
82
94
99
104
109
114
119
53,310
56,313
56,847
61,479
66,128
70,491
74,523
78,316
81,864
85,409
88,953
Structure Plan Total
Version 2.7 July 2008
Page 86 of 107
Whangarei District Growth Model 6. Household Tables - Dwellings Table 41 Growth in Occupied Dwelling Count by Area Unit 1991-1996
1996-2001
2001-2006
1991
1996
2001
2006
Number
Percent
Number
Percent
Number
Abbey Caves
99
123
150
201
24
24.24%
27
21.95%
51
34.00%
Bream Bay
171
189
222
282
18
10.53%
33
17.46%
60
27.03%
Bream Head
354
471
498
534
117
33.05%
27
5.73%
36
7.23%
Percent
Hikurangi
441
462
474
489
21
4.76%
12
2.60%
15
3.16%
Horahora
321
354
378
387
33
10.28%
24
6.78%
9
2.38%
Inlet-Port Whangarei
0
0
3
0
0
3
-3
-100.00%
Inlet-Tutukaka Harbour
0
15
21
0
15
6
-21
-100.00%
-6
-100.00%
Inlet-Whangarei Harbour
0
0
6
0
0
Kamo East
942
987
1,074
1,161
45
4.78%
87
6 8.81%
87
8.10%
Kamo West
1,011
1,113
1,185
1,257
102
10.09%
72
6.47%
72
6.08%
Kensington
546
567
573
600
21
3.85%
6
1.06%
27
4.71%
Mairtown
939
1,029
1,065
1,095
90
9.58%
36
3.50%
30
2.82%
Marsden Point-Ruakaka
951
996
1,041
1,143
45
4.73%
45
4.52%
102
9.80%
Maungatapere
204
294
366
438
90
44.12%
72
24.49%
72
19.67%
Maunu
399
429
474
501
30
7.52%
45
10.49%
27
5.70%
Morningside
720
738
759
798
18
2.50%
21
2.85%
39
5.14%
Ngunguru
402
510
555
633
108
26.87%
45
8.82%
78
14.05%
Onerahi
669
723
762
810
54
8.07%
39
5.39%
48
6.30%
Opouteke-Tanekaha
933
1,092
1,227
1,431
159
17.04%
135
12.36%
204
16.63%
Otaika-Portland
222
270
330
351
48
21.62%
60
22.22%
21
6.36% 3.74%
Otangarei
657
663
642
666
6
0.91%
-21
-3.17%
24
Parahaki
399
423
426
444
24
6.02%
3
0.71%
18
4.23%
Parua Bay
468
561
651
744
93
19.87%
90
16.04%
93
14.29%
Pataua-Whareora
198
255
273
369
57
28.79%
18
7.06%
96
35.16%
Port-Limeburners
12
30
36
33
18
150.00%
6
20.00%
-3
-8.33%
Punaruku-Kiripaka
897
1,119
1,236
1,350
222
24.75%
117
10.46%
114
9.22%
Raumanga East
537
555
558
579
18
3.35%
3
0.54%
21
3.76%
Raumanga West
885
915
927
945
30
3.39%
12
1.31%
18
1.94%
Regent
684
717
732
729
33
4.82%
15
2.09%
-3
-0.41%
Riverside
303
324
336
396
21
6.93%
12
3.70%
60
17.86%
Sherwood Rise
1,248
1,311
1,368
1,467
63
5.05%
57
4.35%
99
7.24%
Springs Flat
285
345
372
477
60
21.05%
27
7.83%
105
28.23%
Te Hihi
189
219
234
327
30
15.87%
15
6.85%
93
39.74%
Three Mile Bush
96
99
132
207
3
3.13%
33
33.33%
75
56.82%
Tikipunga East
897
954
1,041
1,110
57
6.35%
87
9.12%
69
6.63%
Tikipunga West
846
903
960
1,038
57
6.74%
57
6.31%
78
8.13%
Vinetown
669
678
693
711
9
1.35%
15
2.21%
18
2.60%
Waiotira-Springfield
423
486
546
663
63
14.89%
60
12.35%
117
21.43%
Waipu
405
438
495
630
33
8.15%
57
13.01%
135
27.27%
Western Hills
63
66
75
81
3
4.76%
9
13.64%
6
8.00%
Whangarei Central
60.00%
16.67%
45
72
72
84
27
Whangaruru Harbour
0
9
3
3
9
Wharekohe-Oakleigh
630
825
921
1,176
195
Whau Valley
864
921
945
972
57
6.60%
24
2.61%
27
2.86%
Woodhill
600
624
651
681
24
4.00%
27
4.33%
30
4.61%
21,624
23,874
25,488
27,993
2,250
10.41%
1,614
6.76%
2,505
9.83%
Total
Version 2.7 July 2008
30.95%
0
0.00%
12
-6
-66.67%
0
0.00%
96
11.64%
255
27.69%
Page 87 of 107
Whangarei District Growth Model Table 42 Growth in Occupied Dwelling Count by Structure Plan Study Area
1991 Avenues
1996
2001
2006
1991-1996
1996-2001
2001-2006
Number
Percent
Number
Percent
Number
Percent
1,695
1,722
1,770
1,842
27
1.59%
48
2.79%
72
4.07%
City Centre
252
288
282
288
36
14.29%
-6
-2.08%
6
2.13%
City Port
12
21
27
27
9
75.00%
6
28.57%
0
0.00%
Hikurangi
462
498
522
543
36
7.79%
24
4.82%
21
4.02%
Kamo-Three Mile Bush
3,102
3,429
3,726
4,161
327
10.54%
297
8.66%
435
11.67%
Kensington
3,324
3,507
3,585
3,741
183
5.51%
78
2.22%
156
4.35%
Marsden Point - Ruakaka
984
1,032
1,092
1,206
48
4.88%
60
5.81%
114
10.44%
Matapouri
96
147
156
153
51
53.13%
9
6.12%
-3
-1.92%
1,146
1,278
1,398
1,557
132
11.52%
120
9.39%
159
11.37%
195
231
246
258
36
18.46%
15
6.49%
12
4.88%
Maunu McLeod Bay & Reotahi Ngunguru
207
276
330
360
69
33.33%
54
19.57%
30
9.09%
Oakura
132
168
132
126
36
27.27%
-36
-21.43%
-6
-4.55%
Otaika-Toetoe
1,512
1,581
1,599
1,644
69
4.56%
18
1.14%
45
2.81%
Parahaki-Onerahi
2,316
2,478
2,604
2,808
162
6.99%
126
5.08%
204
7.83%
204
234
309
384
30
14.71%
75
32.05%
75
24.27%
Pataua
90
141
144
183
51
56.67%
3
2.13%
39
27.08%
Portland
132
165
186
213
33
25.00%
21
12.73%
27
14.52%
Taurikura & Urquharts
150
189
189
201
39
26.00%
0
0.00%
12
6.35%
Tikipunga-Glenbervie
2,079
2,235
2,427
2,682
156
7.50%
192
8.59%
255
10.51%
Tutukaka
228
291
282
339
63
27.63%
-9
-3.09%
57
20.21%
Waipu
327
366
387
492
39
11.93%
21
5.74%
105
27.13%
Waipu Cove & Langs Beach
123
126
165
201
3
2.44%
39
30.95%
36
21.82%
Western Hills
21
24
24
27
3
14.29%
0
0.00%
3
12.50%
18,834
20,493
21,645
23,529
1,659
8.81%
1,152
5.62%
1,884
8.70%
Parua Bay
Structure Plan Total
Version 2.7 July 2008
Page 88 of 107
Whangarei District Growth Model Table 43 High Occupied Dwelling Count Projections by Area Unit 1991 - 2041 1991
1996
2001
2006
2011
2016
2021
2026
2031
2036
2041
Abbey Caves
99
123
150
201
231
249
264
277
290
302
315
Bream Bay
171
189
222
282
377
459
485
510
533
556
579
Bream Head
354
471
498
534
585
650
687
722
755
787
820
Hikurangi
441
462
474
489
507
524
554
582
609
635
661
Horahora
535
321
354
378
387
406
424
448
471
492
514
Inlet-Port Whangarei
0
0
3
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Inlet-Tutukaka Harbour
0
15
21
0
4
7
7
8
8
8
9
Inlet-Whangarei Harbour
0
0
6
0
0
1
1
1
2
2
2
Kamo East
942
987
1,074
1,161
1,339
1,520
1,607
1,689
1,766
1,842
1,919
Kamo West
1,011
1,113
1,185
1,257
1,293
1,319
1,394
1,465
1,532
1,598
1,664
Kensington
546
567
573
600
606
610
645
678
708
739
770
Mairtown
939
1,029
1,065
1,095
1,110
1,118
1,182
1,242
1,298
1,354
1,410
Marsden Point-Ruakaka
951
996
1,041
1,143
1,479
1,795
1,898
1,994
2,085
2,175
2,265
Maungatapere
204
294
366
438
510
555
587
617
645
673
701
Maunu
399
429
474
501
503
506
535
563
588
614
639
Morningside
720
738
759
798
807
820
867
911
952
994
1,035
Ngunguru
402
510
555
633
723
810
856
899
940
981
1,022
Onerahi
669
723
762
810
827
841
889
934
976
1,019
1,061
Opouteke-Tanekaha
933
1,092
1,227
1,431
1,574
1,671
1,767
1,857
1,941
2,025
2,109
Otaika-Portland
222
270
330
351
382
405
428
450
470
491
511
Otangarei
657
663
642
666
669
675
713
750
784
818
851
Parahaki
399
423
426
444
454
467
494
519
542
566
589
Parua Bay
468
561
651
744
860
948
1,002
1,053
1,101
1,149
1,196
Pataua-Whareora
198
255
273
369
419
539
570
599
626
653
681
Port-Limeburners
12
30
36
33
75
118
125
131
137
143
149
Punaruku-Kiripaka
897
1,119
1,236
1,350
1,649
1,925
2,035
2,138
2,235
2,332
2,429
Raumanga East
537
555
558
579
584
589
622
654
684
713
743
Raumanga West
885
915
927
945
978
1,003
1,061
1,115
1,165
1,216
1,266
Regent
684
717
732
729
736
742
784
824
862
899
936
Riverside
303
324
336
396
411
422
446
469
490
511
533
1,248
1,311
1,368
1,467
1,533
1,552
1,641
1,724
1,802
1,880
1,958
Springs Flat
285
345
372
477
522
642
679
713
746
778
810
Te Hihi
189
219
234
327
398
450
476
500
523
546
568
96
99
132
207
258
288
304
320
334
349
363
Tikipunga East
897
954
1,041
1,110
1,127
1,147
1,213
1,274
1,332
1,390
1,447
Tikipunga West
846
903
960
1,038
1,076
1,096
1,158
1,217
1,272
1,328
1,383
Vinetown
669
678
693
711
713
713
754
792
828
864
900
Waiotira-Springfield
423
486
546
663
859
1,011
1,069
1,123
1,174
1,225
1,276
Waipu
Sherwood Rise
Three Mile Bush
405
438
495
630
872
1,085
1,147
1,206
1,260
1,315
1,370
Western Hills
63
66
75
81
82
89
94
98
103
107
112
Whangarei Central
45
72
72
84
88
96
102
107
112
117
122
Whangaruru Harbour
0
9
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
4
4
Wharekohe-Oakleigh
630
825
921
1,176
1,327
1,443
1,525
1,603
1,676
1,748
1,821
Whau Valley
864
921
945
972
998
1,013
1,071
1,125
1,176
1,227
1,278
Woodhill Grand Total
Version 2.7 July 2008
600
624
651
681
692
710
750
788
824
860
896
21,624
23,874
25,488
27,993
30,647
33,049
34,939
36,717
38,381
40,043
41,704
Page 89 of 107
Whangarei District Growth Model Table 44 High Dwelling Count Projections by Structure Plan Study Area 1991
1996
2001
2006
2011
2016
2021
2026
2031
2036
2041
1,695
1,722
1,770
1,842
1,860
1,881
1,989
2,090
2,185
2,279
2,374
City Centre
252
288
282
288
295
307
324
341
356
372
387
City Port
12
21
27
27
42
55
58
61
63
66
69
Hikurangi
462
498
522
543
566
586
619
651
680
710
739 6,258
Avenues
Kamo-Three Mile Bush
3,102
3,429
3,726
4,161
4,551
4,959
5,243
5,509
5,759
6,008
Kensington
3,324
3,507
3,585
3,741
3,789
3,823
4,041
4,247
4,439
4,632
4,824
Marsden Point - Ruakaka
984
1,032
1,092
1,206
1,638
2,032
2,148
2,257
2,360
2,462
2,564
Matapouri
96
147
156
153
195
224
237
249
260
272
283 2,214
Maunu
1,146
1,278
1,398
1,557
1,666
1,755
1,855
1,950
2,038
2,126
McLeod Bay & Reotahi
195
231
246
258
282
310
328
344
360
376
391
Ngunguru
207
276
330
360
378
398
421
443
463
483
503
Oakura
132
168
132
126
168
215
227
238
249
260
271
Otaika-Toetoe
1,512
1,581
1,599
1,644
1,715
1,777
1,878
1,974
2,063
2,153
2,242
Parahaki-Onerahi
2,316
2,478
2,604
2,808
2,923
3,017
3,190
3,352
3,504
3,655
3,807
Parua Bay
204
234
309
384
481
556
588
618
646
674
702
Pataua
90
141
144
183
211
261
276
290
304
317
330
Portland
132
165
186
213
223
233
246
259
270
282
294
Taurikura & Urquharts
150
189
189
201
215
247
261
275
287
300
312
Tikipunga-Glenbervie
2,079
2,235
2,427
2,682
2,790
2,870
3,035
3,189
3,334
3,478
3,622
Tutukaka
228
291
282
339
421
498
527
553
578
604
629
Waipu
327
366
387
492
595
684
723
760
794
829
863
Waipu Cove & Langs Beach
123
126
165
201
344
471
498
523
547
571
594
Western Hills
21
24
24
27
28
32
34
36
38
39
41
18,789
20,427
21,582
23,436
25,373
27,191
28,746
30,209
31,578
32,945
34,312
Structure Plan Total
Version 2.7 July 2008
Page 90 of 107
Whangarei District Growth Model 7. Floor Area Tables Table 45 Growth in Business Floor Area by Area Unit
1991
1996
2001
2006
1991-1996 Number
Percent
1996-2001
2001-2006
Number
Percent
Number
Percent
Abbey Caves
9,713
9,713
9,983
9,983
0
0.00%
270
2.78%
0
0.00%
Hikurangi
13,210
20,530
20,530
20,628
7,320
55.41%
0
0.00%
98
0.48%
Kamo East
14,614
15,024
18,296
19,325
410
2.81%
3,272
21.78%
1,029
5.62%
Kamo West
5,164
5,592
5,882
6,329
428
8.29%
290
5.19%
447
7.60%
Kensington
2,889
2,924
2,924
2,924
35
1.21%
0
0.00%
0
0.00%
191
212
212
212
21
10.99%
0
0.00%
0
0.00%
Marsden Point-Ruakaka
22,652
307,046
315,974
325,537
284,394
1255.49%
8,928
2.91%
9,563
3.03%
Maungatapere
6,507
7,567
10,410
11,364
1,060
16.29%
2,843
37.57%
954
9.16%
2.52%
16,055
66.98%
3,637
Mairtown
Maunu Morningside Ngunguru
0
0
0
150
23,381
23,971
40,026
43,663
0 590
0
150 9.09%
283
299
299
299
16
5.65%
0
0.00%
0
0.00%
Onerahi
6,917
7,017
7,117
10,327
100
1.45%
100
1.43%
3,210
45.10%
Otaika-Portland
2,047
3,007
3,007
3,007
960
46.90%
0
0.00%
0
0.00%
Otangarei
1,098
1,098
1,098
1,098
0
0.00%
0
0.00%
0
0.00%
Parahaki
0
0
0
1,281
0
Parua Bay
9
9
9
134
0
0.00%
0
0.00%
125
1388.89%
46,127
73,494
107,118
161,946
27,367
59.33%
33,624
45.75%
54,828
51.18%
0
0
0
1,464
Port-Limeburners Raumanga East Raumanga West
0
0
0
0
8,880
0
Regent
45,234
45,332
46,962
56,035
98
Riverside
6,472
6,472
7,490
7,693
177
1,689
2,111
2,111
6,860
16,079
25,909
26,262
Sherwood Rise Springs Flat
0
1,281
0
1,464
0
8,880
0.22%
1,630
3.60%
9,073
19.32%
0
0.00%
1,018
15.73%
203
2.71%
1,512
854.24%
422
24.99%
0
0.00%
9,219
134.39%
9,830
61.14%
353
1.36% 0.00%
Tikipunga West
2,158
2,158
2,408
2,408
0
0.00%
250
11.58%
0
Vinetown
3,068
3,193
3,336
3,359
125
4.07%
143
4.48%
23
0.69%
960
960
960
960
0
0.00%
0
0.00%
0
0.00%
Waiotira-Springfield Waipu
7,049
7,149
9,039
12,016
100
1.42%
1,890
26.44%
2,977
32.94%
169,238
206,683
228,151
311,039
37,445
22.13%
21,468
10.39%
82,888
36.33%
Whau Valley
3,883
3,883
3,883
3,883
0
0.00%
0
0.00%
0
0.00%
Woodhill
1,270
1,270
1,289
1,289
0
0.00%
19
1.50%
0
0.00%
401,171
772,371
874,423
1,055,606
371,200
92.53%
102,052
13.21%
181,183
20.72%
Whangarei Central
Total
Version 2.7 July 2008
Page 91 of 107
Whangarei District Growth Model Table 46 Growth in Business Floor Area by Study Area 1991
1996
2001
1991-1996
2006
Number Avenues
Percent
1996-2001
2001-2006
Number
Percent
Number
Percent
21,987
22,702
37,660
41,320
715
3.25%
14,958
65.89%
3,660
9.72%
City Centre
215,354
252,865
276,083
367,518
37,511
17.42%
23,218
9.18%
91,435
33.12%
City Port
15,004
37,993
55,212
64,978
22,989
153.22%
17,219
45.32%
9,766
17.69%
Hikurangi
13,210
20,530
20,530
20,628
7,320
55.41%
0
0.00%
98
0.48%
Kamo-Three Mile Bush
25,871
35,917
43,409
45,238
10,046
38.83%
7,492
20.86%
1,829
4.21%
Kensington
18,335
18,423
20,561
21,290
88
0.48%
2,138
11.61%
729
3.55%
Marsden Point - Ruakaka
23,612
308,006
316,934
326,497
284,394
1204.45%
8,928
2.90%
9,563
3.02%
365
365
384
534
0
0.00%
19
5.21%
150
39.06%
Maunu Ngunguru
283
299
299
299
16
5.65%
0
0.00%
0
0.00%
Otaika-Toetoe
32,090
37,428
53,833
109,239
5,338
16.63%
16,405
43.83%
55,406
102.92%
Parahaki-Onerahi
16,807
18,419
19,211
23,702
1,612
9.59%
792
4.30%
4,491
23.38%
9
9
9
134
0
0.00%
0
0.00%
125
1388.89%
1,080
1,080
1,080
1,080
0
0.00%
0
0.00%
0
0.00%
Parua Bay Portland Tikipunga-Glenbervie
3,355
3,355
9,505
9,505
0
0.00%
6,150
183.31%
0
0.00%
Waipu
7,049
7,149
9,039
12,016
100
1.42%
1,890
26.44%
2,977
32.94%
394,411
764,540
863,749
1,043,978
370,129
93.84%
99,209
12.98%
180,229
20.87%
Structure Plan Total
Version 2.7 July 2008
Page 92 of 107
Whangarei District Growth Model Table 47 Regression Analysis between Floor Area by Business Environment and Key Drivers Business Environment
Category
B1
Coastal
B1
Rural
B1
Rural Res
Employment Figures (FTEs)
Number of Business
Regional Economic Activity
Population
National Labour Force
B1
Urban
62.86%
88.21%
95.24%
B2
Coastal
99.26%
94.89%
96.23%
B2
Rural
61.05%
65.85%
72.33%
B2
Rural Res
96.88%
51.90%
72.06%
B2
Urban
53.00%
80.53%
93.20%
B3
Coastal
97.07%
81.46%
85.20%
B3
Rural
96.83%
95.81%
96.04%
B3
Rural Res
19.19%
84.48%
69.65%
B3
Urban
62.49%
82.53%
95.95%
B4
Coastal
85.13%
58.32%
62.38%
B4
Rural
74.06%
91.16%
88.19%
B4
Rural Res
93.67%
55.23%
77.56%
B4
Urban
78.57%
90.42%
96.68%
Coastal
97.67%
98.41%
69.36%
80.43%
63.08%
Rural
74.55%
84.89%
87.06%
88.75%
85.46%
Rural Res
85.81%
68.10%
84.31%
63.42%
77.54%
Urban
55.63%
99.64%
95.51%
90.57%
98.13%
B1
63.97%
91.66%
90.56%
98.00%
95.24%
B2
57.13%
98.76%
90.79%
95.63%
94.96%
B3
67.27%
98.41%
96.69%
94.15%
97.13%
B4
99.22%
95.00%
78.48%
69.35%
72.43%
Version 2.7 July 2008
Page 93 of 107
Whangarei District Growth Model Table 48 High Floor Area Projections by Area Unit
1991
1996
2001
2006
2011
2016
2021
2026
2031
2036
2041
9,713
9,713
9,983
9,983
11,153
11,790
12,160
12,511
12,842
13,181
13,546
Hikurangi
13,210
20,530
20,530
20,628
23,046
24,362
25,126
25,853
26,535
27,236
27,990
Kamo East
14,614
15,024
18,296
19,325
21,590
22,823
23,539
24,220
24,859
25,515
26,222
Kamo West
5,164
5,592
5,882
6,329
7,071
7,474
7,709
7,932
8,141
8,356
8,588
Kensington
2,889
2,924
2,924
2,924
3,267
3,453
3,562
3,665
3,761
3,861
3,968
Abbey Caves
Mairtown Marsden Point-Ruakaka Maungatapere Maunu Morningside Ngunguru
191
212
212
212
237
250
258
266
273
280
288
22,652
307,046
315,974
325,537
363,690
384,457
396,529
407,988
418,759
429,814
441,720
6,507
7,567
10,410
11,364
12,696
13,421
13,842
14,242
14,618
15,004
15,420
0
0
0
150
168
177
183
188
193
198
204
23,381
23,971
40,026
43,663
48,780
51,566
53,185
54,722
56,167
57,649
59,246
283
299
299
299
334
353
364
375
385
395
406
Onerahi
6,917
7,017
7,117
10,327
11,537
12,196
12,579
12,943
13,284
13,635
14,013
Otaika-Portland
2,047
3,007
3,007
3,007
3,359
3,551
3,663
3,769
3,868
3,970
4,080
Otangarei
1,098
1,098
1,098
1,098
1,227
1,297
1,337
1,376
1,412
1,450
1,490
0
0
0
1,281
1,431
1,513
1,560
1,605
1,648
1,691
1,738
Parahaki Parua Bay Port-Limeburners Raumanga East Raumanga West Regent Riverside Sherwood Rise
9
9
9
134
150
158
163
168
172
177
182
46,127
73,494
107,118
161,946
180,926
191,257
197,262
202,963
208,322
213,821
219,744
0
0
0
1,464
1,636
1,729
1,783
1,835
1,883
1,933
1,986 12,049
0
0
0
8,880
9,921
10,487
10,817
11,129
11,423
11,724
45,234
45,332
46,962
56,035
62,602
66,177
68,255
70,227
72,081
73,984
76,034
6,472
6,472
7,490
7,693
8,595
9,085
9,371
9,641
9,896
10,157
10,439
177
1,689
2,111
2,111
2,358
2,493
2,571
2,646
2,716
2,787
2,864
Springs Flat
6,860
16,079
25,909
26,262
29,340
31,015
31,989
32,914
33,782
34,674
35,635
Tikipunga West
2,158
2,158
2,408
2,408
2,690
2,844
2,933
3,018
3,098
3,179
3,267
Vinetown
3,068
3,193
3,336
3,359
3,753
3,967
4,092
4,210
4,321
4,435
4,558
Waiotira-Springfield
960
960
960
960
1,073
1,134
1,169
1,203
1,235
1,268
1,303
7,049
7,149
9,039
12,016
13,424
14,191
14,636
15,059
15,457
15,865
16,304
169,238
206,683
228,151
311,039
347,493
367,335
378,869
389,819
400,110
410,673
422,049
Whau Valley
3,883
3,883
3,883
3,883
4,338
4,586
4,730
4,866
4,995
5,127
5,269
Woodhill
1,270
1,270
1,289
1,289
1,440
1,522
1,570
1,615
1,658
1,702
1,749
401,171
772,371
874,423
1,055,606
1,179,324
1,246,663
1,285,808
1,322,968
1,357,894
1,393,743
1,432,349
Waipu Whangarei Central
Total
Version 2.7 July 2008
Page 94 of 107
Whangarei District Growth Model Table 49 High Floor Area Projections by Structure Plan Study Area
Avenues City Centre
1991
1996
2001
2006
2011
2016
2021
2026
2031
2036
2041
21,987
22,702
37,660
41,320
46,163
48,799
50,331
51,785
53,153
54,556
56,067
215,354
252,865
276,083
367,518
410,592
434,036
447,665
460,603
472,763
485,243
498,685
City Port
15,004
37,993
55,212
64,978
72,593
76,739
79,148
81,435
83,585
85,792
88,168
Hikurangi
13,210
20,530
20,530
20,628
23,046
24,362
25,126
25,853
26,535
27,236
27,990
Kamo-Three Mile Bush
25,871
35,917
43,409
45,238
50,540
53,426
55,103
56,696
58,193
59,729
61,383
Kensington
18,335
18,423
20,561
21,290
23,785
25,143
25,933
26,682
27,387
28,110
28,888
Marsden Point - Ruakaka
23,612
308,006
316,934
326,497
364,762
385,590
397,698
409,191
419,994
431,082
443,023
365
365
384
534
597
631
650
669
687
705
725
Maunu Ngunguru
283
299
299
299
334
353
364
375
385
395
406
Otaika-Toetoe
32,090
37,428
53,833
109,239
122,042
129,010
133,061
136,907
140,521
144,231
148,226
Parahaki-Onerahi
16,807
18,419
19,211
23,702
26,480
27,992
28,871
29,705
30,489
31,294
32,161
Parua Bay
9
9
9
134
150
158
163
168
172
177
182
Portland
1,080
1,080
1,080
1,080
1,207
1,275
1,316
1,354
1,389
1,426
1,465
Tikipunga-Glenbervie
3,355
3,355
9,505
9,505
10,619
11,225
11,578
11,912
12,227
12,550
12,897
Waipu
7,049
7,149
9,039
12,016
13,424
14,191
14,636
15,059
15,457
15,865
16,304
394,411
764,540
863,749
1,043,978
1,166,333
1,232,930
1,271,644
1,308,395
1,342,936
1,378,390
1,416,571
Structure Plan Total
Version 2.7 July 2008
Page 95 of 107
Whangarei District Growth Model 8. Impervious Area Tables Table 50 Regression Analysis between Impervious Area by Environment and Key Drivers Business Environment
Category
B1
Coastal
B1
Rural
B1
Rural Res
Employment Figures (FTEs)
Number of Business
Regional Economic Activity
Population
National Labour Force
B1
Urban
9.33%
11.89%
12.42%
11.11%
13.31%
B2
Coastal
38.61%
0.03%
0.01%
5.42%
0.00%
B2
Rural
23.45%
76.72%
77.41%
82.66%
78.50%
B2
Rural Res
B2
Urban
70.22%
99.28%
99.13%
99.47%
98.87%
B3
Coastal
43.74%
96.20%
96.51%
83.92%
96.98%
B3
Rural
35.35%
86.76%
87.31%
91.36%
88.18%
B3
Rural Res
80.11%
98.13%
97.90%
93.85%
97.51%
B3
Urban
72.63%
98.75%
98.56%
99.01%
98.23%
B4
Coastal
0.03%
38.54%
39.34%
19.18%
40.64%
B4
Rural
70.99%
18.16%
17.53%
12.82%
16.54%
B4
Rural Res
45.39%
94.70%
95.06%
98.60%
95.62%
B4
Urban
76.96%
97.41%
97.14%
97.78%
96.68%
L1
Coastal
38.90%
94.10%
94.48%
80.15%
95.07%
L1
Rural
31.28%
83.70%
84.30%
88.78%
85.25%
L1
Rural Res
40.95%
92.52%
92.94%
97.35%
93.61%
L1
Urban
55.72%
99.57%
99.67%
99.39%
99.80%
L2
Coastal
L2
Rural
L2
Rural Res
L2
Urban
98.31%
74.26%
73.54%
75.32%
72.37%
L3
Coastal
47.22%
97.42%
97.68%
86.40%
98.06%
L3
Rural
8.38%
7.02%
7.44%
11.25%
8.15%
L3
Rural Res
32.45%
87.24%
87.78%
93.79%
88.63%
L3
Urban
44.32%
96.80%
97.08%
96.35%
97.51%
Coastal
21.08%
81.72%
82.34%
62.57%
83.34%
Rural
95.09%
88.99%
88.47%
83.94%
87.61%
Rural Res
36.45%
89.91%
90.40%
95.66%
91.16%
Urban
53.35%
99.20%
99.34%
98.97%
99.54%
B1
8.06%
11.89%
12.42%
12.24%
13.31%
B2
66.97%
99.92%
99.87%
99.89%
99.76%
B3
96.02%
81.94%
81.30%
81.51%
80.26%
B4
4.27%
56.25%
57.07%
56.80%
58.37%
L1
53.80%
98.85%
99.02%
98.96%
99.26%
L2
98.84%
74.26%
73.54%
73.78%
72.37%
L3
41.69%
94.85%
95.21%
95.09%
95.75%
Version 2.7 July 2008
Page 96 of 107
Whangarei District Growth Model Table 51 High Impervious Surface Area Projections by Area Unit
1988
1994
2006
2011
2016
2021
2026
2031
2036
2041
Abbey Caves
45,192
38,282
94,370
101,492
106,160
109,343
113,158
116,727
120,316
124,024
Bream Head
556,287
644,384
1,111,343
1,167,261
1,207,746
1,240,797
1,311,084
1,377,202
1,439,111
1,498,473
Hikurangi
403,353
334,352
353,375
373,633
387,790
398,693
418,793
437,682
455,625
473,109
Horahora
376,610
436,229
665,062
698,116
722,131
741,845
784,279
824,198
861,535
897,288
Inlet-Port Whangarei
3,778
3,527
3,773
4,084
4,285
4,417
4,545
4,664
4,789
4,922
Inlet-Whangarei Harbour
161,219
185,402
154,455
167,057
175,186
180,546
185,932
190,960
196,169
201,707
Kamo East
746,786
795,742
1,257,038
1,322,989
1,370,181
1,407,995
1,485,044
1,557,502
1,625,628
1,691,254
Kamo West
699,535
828,342
1,145,892
1,204,497
1,246,731
1,280,961
1,352,573
1,419,929
1,483,095
1,543,769 593,210
Kensington
308,236
357,414
440,377
462,955
479,215
492,378
519,849
545,687
569,923
Mairtown
547,240
590,743
611,908
642,419
664,567
682,721
721,673
758,316
792,598
825,438
3,368,223
2,980,464
4,060,914
4,345,485
4,534,994
4,668,511
4,852,526
5,024,994
5,194,796
5,366,647
Maunu
240,004
320,702
603,313
633,539
655,449
673,371
711,646
747,651
781,351
813,650
Morningside
828,327
861,141
917,562
974,180
1,013,020
1,041,968
1,090,516
1,136,103
1,179,870
1,223,013
Ngunguru
172,549
253,439
349,090
366,440
379,045
389,393
411,667
432,620
452,218
470,985
Onerahi
553,812
557,120
885,577
930,036
962,244
988,566
1,044,665
1,097,438
1,146,841
1,194,199
0
148
156
161
165
175
184
192
200
Marsden Point-Ruakaka
Opouteke-Tanekaha Otaika-Portland
370,650
516,141
460,470
497,224
521,037
536,889
553,683
569,375
585,475
602,442
Otangarei
290,440
359,556
380,562
399,593
413,395
424,695
448,870
471,612
492,895
513,288
Parahaki
281,611
402,418
487,959
512,388
530,100
544,593
575,566
604,702
631,971
658,104
Port-Limeburners
2,245,446
2,186,561
2,630,046
2,834,677
2,967,946
3,057,646
3,158,375
3,252,560
3,348,238
3,448,122
Punaruku-Kiripaka
577
810
1,597
1,676
1,734
1,781
1,883
1,979
2,069
2,155
Raumanga East
444,911
406,659
476,272
500,708
518,303
532,542
562,235
590,164
616,363
641,538
Raumanga West
627,023
910,514
1,065,995
1,120,448
1,159,704
1,191,536
1,258,215
1,320,932
1,379,741
1,436,222
Regent
553,248
629,875
611,815
645,722
669,627
688,319
724,179
757,888
789,775
820,701
Riverside
203,503
294,972
391,404
411,901
426,576
438,344
462,369
484,963
506,202
526,657
Sherwood Rise
842,737
1,114,287
1,200,005
1,260,477
1,304,239
1,339,942
1,415,753
1,487,066
1,553,849
1,617,895
Springs Flat
489,527
552,309
637,705
685,467
716,820
738,275
764,382
788,816
813,319
838,579
Te Hihi
62,606
98,187
288,161
302,482
312,888
321,429
339,815
357,112
373,289
388,780
Three Mile Bush
64,003
87,709
427,609
448,861
464,302
476,978
504,261
529,927
553,933
576,921
Tikipunga East
689,451
777,644
923,887
969,829
1,003,203
1,030,594
1,089,519
1,144,953
1,196,802
1,246,456
Tikipunga West
716,230
751,889
1,100,249
1,156,466
1,196,991
1,229,849
1,298,657
1,363,376
1,424,065
1,482,352
Vinetown
365,711
386,373
403,595
424,972
440,228
452,401
476,956
500,046
521,777
542,734
Waiotira-Springfield
43,527
132,401
131,795
139,677
145,126
149,244
156,445
163,208
169,670
176,008
Western Hills
84,394
92,334
205,186
215,384
222,794
228,876
241,967
254,282
265,801
276,831
Whangarei Central
776,139
789,039
767,159
830,132
870,707
897,394
923,795
948,437
974,036
1,001,327
Wharekohe-Oakleigh
10,897
8,243
1,261
1,324
1,370
1,407
1,487
1,563
1,633
1,701
Whau Valley
545,785
651,003
815,931
856,930
886,625
910,882
962,536
1,011,126
1,056,617
1,100,230
Woodhill
406,734
429,812
559,147
587,177
607,492
624,105
659,562
692,917
724,138
754,063
19,126,299
20,766,020
26,622,007
28,197,853
29,290,109
30,119,393
31,588,633
32,968,863
34,285,714
35,574,993
Grand Total
Version 2.7 July 2008
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Whangarei District Growth Model Table 52 High Impervious Surface Area Projections by Structure Plan Study Area
Avenues City Centre
1988
1994
2006
2011
2016
2021
2026
2031
2036
2041
1,380,579
1,469,730
1,617,520
1,709,721
1,774,247
1,824,071
1,916,558
2,003,474
2,085,977
2,166,304
992,216
1,093,084
975,706
1,051,942
1,101,548
1,134,877
1,171,955
1,206,620
1,241,890
1,278,765
City Port
1,732,003
1,708,381
1,563,208
1,692,329
1,775,423
1,829,928
1,882,996
1,932,519
1,984,117
2,039,276
Hikurangi
417,724
334,366
371,436
392,592
407,401
418,839
440,092
460,065
479,022
497,477
Kamo-Three Mile Bush
2,102,618
2,338,334
3,778,867
3,979,189
4,122,125
4,236,127
4,465,880
4,681,924
4,885,271
5,081,397
Kensington
2,002,450
2,340,947
2,732,534
2,871,991
2,972,554
3,054,133
3,225,166
3,386,039
3,536,875
3,681,725
Marsden Point - Ruakaka
3,379,850
2,988,320
4,101,396
4,389,311
4,580,972
4,715,900
4,901,289
5,075,040
5,246,178
5,419,457
Maunu
832,625
983,860
1,740,943
1,827,753
1,890,766
1,942,417
2,053,237
2,157,490
2,255,024
2,348,457
McLeod Bay & Reotahi
215,582
160,175
479,078
502,888
520,187
534,388
564,955
593,711
620,607
646,362
Ngunguru
172,549
253,439
349,090
366,440
379,045
389,393
411,667
432,620
452,218
470,985
Otaika-Toetoe
1,585,398
1,800,051
2,610,478
2,764,966
2,872,052
2,953,364
3,097,464
3,232,835
3,361,986
3,488,428
Parahaki-Onerahi
1,665,290
2,045,559
2,510,413
2,639,066
2,731,729
2,806,761
2,963,410
3,110,748
3,248,949
3,381,727
Parua Bay
161,328
233,030
353,422
371,671
384,788
395,373
417,301
437,926
457,286
475,901
Portland
380,048
488,640
459,107
495,771
519,524
535,332
552,059
567,687
583,726
600,632
1,559,678
1,725,772
2,213,466
2,328,890
2,411,623
2,478,096
2,614,410
2,742,606
2,863,062
2,979,017
31,965
27,343
88,734
93,145
96,349
98,980
104,640
109,966
114,947
119,717
18,611,902
19,991,030
25,945,397
27,477,664
28,540,333
29,347,980
30,783,080
32,131,270
33,417,134
34,675,627
Tikipunga-Glenbervie Western Hills Grand Total
Version 2.7 July 2008
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Whangarei District Growth Model 9. Landuse Capacity Tables Table 53 Vacant Land Parcels25 by Area Unit Area Unit
Current Number of Occupied Land Parcels
Total Number of Land Parcels
Abbey Caves
84
295
379
Bream Bay
176
936
1,112
Bream Head
294
946
1,240
Hikurangi
83
521
604
Horahora
100
368
468
Inlet-Port Whangarei
3
7
10
Inlet-Tutukaka Harbour
2
5
7
Inlet-Whangarei Harbour
22
55
77
Kamo East
143
1,082
1,225
Kamo West
75
1,146
1,221
Kensington
33
469
502
Mairtown
45
852
897
Marsden Point-Ruakaka
944
1,617
2,561
Maungatapere
96
600
696
Maunu
26
528
554
Morningside
51
669
720
344
838
1,182
Ngunguru Onerahi
75
806
881
Opouteke-Tanekaha
815
3,143
3,958
Otaika-Portland
94
510
604
Otangarei
27
550
577
Parahaki
28
428
456
Parua Bay
290
1,026
1,316
Pataua-Whareora
199
891
1,090
Port-Limeburners
14
34
48
Punaruku-Kiripaka
1,121
3,212
4,333
Raumanga East
30
494
524
Raumanga West
108
869
977
Regent
84
492
576
Riverside
49
293
342
Sherwood Rise
63
1,381
1,444
Springs Flat
126
542
668
Te Hihi
136
362
498
Three Mile Bush
122
339
461
Tikipunga East
27
957
984
Tikipunga West
131
1,006
1,137
Vinetown
51
479
530
Waiotira-Springfield
556
2,129
2,685
Waipu
535
1,190
1,725
10
96
106
Western Hills Whangarei Central
26
31
57
Whangaruru Harbour
40
22
62
Wharekohe-Oakleigh
425
2,049
2,474
Whau Valley
58
938
996
Woodhill
68
593
661
7,829
35,796
43,625
Grand Total
25
Current Number of Vacant Land Parcels
Land Parcels Zoned Living 1, 2, 3, Countryside and Coastal Countryside.
Version 2.7 July 2008
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Whangarei District Growth Model Table 54 Vacant Land Parcels26 by Structure Plan Study Area Current Number of Vacant Land Parcels
Current Number of Occupied Land Parcels
Total Number of Land Parcels
Avenues
118
1,527
1,645
City Centre
47
180
227
City Port
7
7
14
Hikurangi
180
659
839
Kamo-Three Mile Bush
681
4,356
5,037
Kensington
259
2,977
3,236
Marsden Point - Ruakaka
977
1,738
2,715
Area Unit
Matapouri
194
473
667
Maunu
330
1,539
1,869
McLeod Bay & Reotahi
142
376
518
Ngunguru
113
438
551
Oakura
194
394
588
Otaika-Toetoe
186
1,530
1,716
Parahaki-Onerahi
234
2,852
3,086
Parua Bay
209
606
815
Pataua
109
468
577
70
356
426
Portland Taurikura & Urquharts
111
404
515
Tikipunga-Glenbervie
288
2,614
2,902
Tutukaka
253
504
757
Waipu
249
621
870
Waipu Cove & Langs Beach
312
687
999
8
30
38
5,271
25,336
30,607
Western Hills Grand Total
26
Land Parcels Zoned Living 1, 2, 3, Countryside and Coastal Countryside.
Version 2.7 July 2008
Page 100 of 107
Whangarei District Growth Model 10. Marsden Point – Ruakaka Development Model Current Situation The Marsden Point – Ruakaka has a land area of approximately 3,225 hectares (32 km 2 ), 49% of which is zoned Countryside/Coastal Countryside, 29% is zoned Business, with the remaining 22% zoned residential. 23% of the Marsden Point – Ruakaka area contains no business or dwelling, compared with 2.93% for the Whangarei District. The population of the Marsden Point – Ruakaka area is 3,114, which is 4% of the Whangarei District’s population. The holiday population increases by 42% to 7,370 between Christmas and New Year. The current population growth rate is 10.07% over the five year period from 2001-2006, which is higher than the District’s average of 9.35 for the same period. The Marsden Point – Ruakaka is currently experiencing rapid development. The number of subdivision consent applications has increased by 2,040% between 2000 and 2008, with the number of lots created increasing by 1,225% over the same period. For comparison, the number of subdivision consent applications for the Whangarei District has increased by 1,160%, with the number of lots created increasing by 1,076% over the same period.
Version 2.7 July 2008
Page 101 of 107
Whangarei District Growth Model The Study Area
KA RO
RE
RO R
D
The Marsden Point – Ruakaka study area is based on the Marsden Point Structure Plan (adopted in 2000). The study area is made up of 38 Meshblocks, 35 of which make up the Marsden Point – Ruakaka Area Unit, and 3 neighbouring Meshblocks from the Waiotira-Springfield Area Unit.
O
TA H I RD
MB0074210 MB0079010
MB0074211
RD
MB0079403
ON E
MB0078900
IRI R AU
PY LE
RD AI
MB0078800
MB0079002
IN T
IW
PO
K AH
TR EE
TA
RD
MB0079402
MB0079500
MB0079003
MB0079102
RD
RD
MB0079101
HW
Y MB0079601
PO RT
M
DE N ARS
MAIR RD
A RAM
MC EW AN
DRV
MB0078302 MB0079701
IE
RD
Waiotira-Springfield
SIM
MB0079603
SA LL E
ER D MB0079703
MA
MB0078301
R S DE NP OI NT
MC CA TH
FLYG ER RD
RD
MB0079200
RD MB0078401 MB0079605
Marsden Point-Ruakaka MB0079704 MB0078500 MB0078601
PR IN
OT RE SC
RD
RD
S CE
1 SH
T
MB0079803
P
MB0079804 MB0078700
Legend Area Units Meshblocks
MB0079802
Study Area
Figure 45 Marsden Point – Ruakaka Study Area
Version 2.7 July 2008
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Whangarei District Growth Model Development
O
TA H I RD
O IN
IR
D
T RD
KA RO
RO
RE
RD
The Marsden Point – Ruakaka area has been undergoing considerable development, with 107 subdivision consent applications for 2,347 new lots since 2000.
KA H
ON
R AI
E
IW D
IRI R AU
DRV
A RAM RD
MC EW AN RD
HW
Y
RD
MA
IE
RSDE NP OI NT
MC CA TH
FLYGER RD
RD
PO RT
M
DE N ARS
MAIR RD
PY L ER D
TA
TR EE P
H
PI R I
ER D
TA MI NG IS
T
RD
PR ES CO TT
RD
SALL E
SIM
PR IN S CE RD
1 SH
Legend 223 Proposed Completed Study Area
Figure 46 Subdivision in the Marsden Point – Ruakaka Study Area
Version 2.7 July 2008
Page 103 of 107
Whangarei District Growth Model Table 55 Subdivision consent Applications for the Marsden Point – Ruakaka Study Area Subdivision consent Application
2000
2001
11 Lots
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2008 YTD
1
120 Industrial Lots
1
15 Lot Subdivision
1
152 Lots - 4 Stages 36,37,51,16
1
190 Industrial Lots - 2 Stages 84,106 2 Lot Subdivision
2007
1 1
2 Lots
2
25 Lot Subdivision
1
1
2
Number of Applications
Number of Lots
1
11
1
120
1
15
1
152
1
190
1
2
5
10
1
25
3 Lots
1
1
3
311 Lots - 6 Stages 57,54,50,61,40,48
1
1
311
1
32
1
33
32 Lots
1
33 Lots 4 Lot Subdivision
1 1
1
410 LOTS - 9 Stages Of 50 Lots
1
42 Lots
1
5 Lots
1
52 Lots
1
58 Lots
1
80 Lots - 3 Stages 20,20,40
1
83 Lots
1
89 Lots Plus Balance Lots
1
Create 2 Allotments
1
Create 2 Allots
1
Create 2 New Allotments
1
2
1
Create 2 Residential Allotments
1
Create 2 Residential Lots
1
Create 3 Allotments
4
Create 4 Allotments
1
Create 5 Allotments
2
Create 5 Allotments From 2 Titles
1
Create 5 Lots
1
Create 6 Allotments
1
Create 6 Lots
1 1
Create 7 Allotments Create 8 Allotments
2
1 1
Eight Lots
1
Five Lots Four Lots
1
1
2
1
2
Seventy One Lots
1
Stage 1 Of Waterways & Marina Development 1
3
1
Three Lots - Two Stages
1
1
58
1
80
1
83
1
89
6
12
1
2
1
2
1
2
1
2
4
12
1
4
2
10
1
5
1
5
2
12
1
6
1
7
1
8
1
8
4
20
4
16
6
18
1
3
1
198
1
22
3
6
6
9
7
6
4
1
Total Number of Applications
5
10
10
14
26
20
11
9
2
218
33
56
42
475
1073
241
199
10
Version 2.7 July 2008
52
1
Unit Title For Six Units
Total Number of Lots
5
1
1
1
Two Lots
42
71
2
Two Lot Subdivision From Two Existing Cross Lease Titles
1 1
93
1
Two Lot Subdivision
410
1
1
Twenty Two Lots
8
1
1
1
Three Lots
To Subdivide 3 Lots Into 198 Lots - 5 Stages 30,45,31,58
1
2
1
2
32
64
1
6
107 2347
Page 104 of 107
Whangarei District Growth Model
Subdivision Growth in the Marsden Point - Ruakaka Study Area 120
2500
Number of New Lots
80 1500 60 1000 40
500
0 2000
Number of Subdivision Applications
100
2000
20
2001
2002
2003 New Lots
2004
2005
2006
2007
0 2008
Subdivision Applications
Figure 47 Subdivision Growth in the Marsden Point – Ruakaka Study Area
Version 2.7 July 2008
Page 105 of 107
Whangarei District Growth Model The Model A development model was developed for the Marsden Point – Ruakaka study area based on development trends and the projected number of lots. The model was developed to assist in the calculations of development contributions for this area, as the rate of subdivision development exceeds take-up by approximately 50%. The model uses the number of residential and business lots already in existence in 2006 as the baseline, and distributes subdivision development over the next 35 years to 2041. Table 56 Marsden Point – Ruakaka Development Model – Lots Created 1991
1996
2001
2006
2011
2016
2021
2026
2031
2036
2041
119
122
120
133
187
295
367
380
391
402
414
Residential Lots
2,421
2,487
2,441
2,715
2,914
3,312
3,578
3,760
3,930
4,100
4,270
Total
2,539
2,609
2,561
2,848
3,101
3,607
3,945
4,140
4,321
4,503
4,684
Business Lots
Marsden Point - Ruakaka Study Area Development Model 1,000
5,000 4,500
Actual
Forecast 800
4,000
600
3,000 2,500
400
2,000
Business Lots
Residential Lots
3,500
1,500 200
1,000 500 0 1991
1996
2001
2006
2011 Total
2016 Residential
2021
2026
2031
2036
0 2041
Business
Figure 48 Marsden Point – Ruakaka Development Model
Version 2.7 July 2008
Page 106 of 107
Whangarei District Growth Model
Table 57 Marsden Point – Ruakaka Growth Model27 – Projected Take-Up
Population Dwellings Business Floor Area (m2)
1991
1996
2001
2006
2011
2016
2021
2026
2031
2036
2041
2,808
2,883
2,829
3,114
4,150
5,096
5,387
5,662
5,918
6,174
6,431
984
1,032
1,092
1,206
1,638
2,032
2,148
2,257
2,360
2,462
2,564
23,612
308,006
316,934
326,497
364,762
385,590
397,698
409,191
419,994
431,082
443,023
Marsden Point - Ruakaka Study Area Growth Model 8,000
500,000
Actual
7,000
450,000
Forecast
400,000 350,000 5,000
300,000 250,000
4,000
200,000
3,000
150,000
Business Floor Area m2
Population/Dwellings
6,000
2,000 100,000 1,000 0 1991
50,000
1996
2001
Population
2006
Dwellings
2011
2016
2021
Business Floor Area (m2)
2026
2031
2036
0 2041
Actual Business Floor Area (m2)
Figure 49 Marsden Point – Ruakaka Growth Model
27
Based on High Projections.
Version 2.7 July 2008
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