Underperform (15E TP Bt7.80) - Global Alliance Partners
AP (Thailand) Underperform (15E TP Bt7.80)
Company Update
Close Bt7.80
Property Development April 27, 2015
Earnings upgrade/Earnings downgrade/Overview unchanged
Strong YoY earnings growth in 1Q15E
FY15
FY16
Consensus EPS (Bt)
0.901
0.973
KT ZMICO vs. consensus Share data
2.1%
2.8%
Reuters / Bloomberg
AP.BK/AP TB
Paid‐up Shares (m)
3,145.90
Par (Bt)
1.00
Market cap (Bt bn / US$ m) Foreign limit / actual (%)
25.00/754.00 30.00/27.60
52 week High / Low (Bt)
7.80/4.51
Avg. daily T/O (shares 000)
17,490.00
NVDR (%)
11.92
Estimated free float (%)
67.47
Beta
1.27
URL
www.apthai.com
CGR
Solid prospects already priced in: changed to Underperform Presales were quite strong in 1Q15 on the back of the strong take‐up rate of a SDH project. The strong low‐rise presales together with a CD completion should lead to a YoY spike in 1Q15E earnings. Nevertheless, we cut the rating from Outperform to Underperform with a TP of Bt7.80 (8.5x), believing that the share is already fully valued. Presales were strong in 1Q15E AP had net presales of Bt4.6bn in 1Q15 (+114.6% YoY, ‐10.5% QoQ). While the QoQ decline is mainly due to the difference in new launches, the YoY spike is attributable to i.) a low base in 1Q14 and ii.) strong launch of The City Sukhumvit‐Bangna (Bt1.0bn, 30% sold), a SDH project located 2km from BTS Udomsuk; 1Q15 low‐rise presales were Bt3.2bn (+31.3% YoY, +10.4% QoQ). YoY earnings growth on low‐rise recovery and completion of big condo We have 1Q15E earnings of Bt601m (+131.2% YoY, ‐1.3% QoQ). The slight QoQ decrease is due to a lot of CD completions in 3Q‐4Q14. On the other hand, the big YoY jump comes from i.) the recovery of low‐rise transfers and ii.) completion of Rhythm Sathorn‐Narathiwas (Bt1.6bn, 96% sold). Raise 2015E earnings by 2.9% The strong low‐rise presales in 1Q15 lead us to raise 15E transfers by 0.9% to Bt25.4bn (+10.7%). We also fine‐tune GPM, raising it from 32.8% to 33.0%, resulting in 2.9% increase in net profit to Bt2.9bn (+10.8%). Downgrade from Outperform to Underperform, fully valued Despite the higher TP of Bt7.80 (8.5x PER), up from Bt7.60, there is no price upside left; therefore, we decide to cut the rating to Underperform, believing that AP's solid outlook is already priced in. Financials and Valuation FY Ended 31 Dec
2012
2013
2014
2015E
2016E
Revenues (Btmn)
17,310
19,989
23,096
25,561
25,536
Net profit (Btmn)
2,186
2,013
2,615
2,898
3,143
0.77
0.70
0.83
0.92
1.00
EPS (Bt)
Wasu Mattanapotchanart Analyst, no. 44357 [email protected] 66 (0) 2624‐6268
EPS growth (%)
40.0
‐8.6
18.0
10.8
8.5
Dividend (Bt)
0.25
0.27
0.26
0.30
0.33
BV (Bt)
4.47
4.90
5.04
5.70
6.40
FY Ended 31 Dec
2012
2013
2014
2015E
2016E
Norm. PER (x)
10.5
11.1
9.4
8.5
7.8
EV/EBITDA (x)
11.1
12.6
9.6
9.1
9.0
PBV (x)
1.74
1.59
1.55
1.37
1.22
Dividend yield (%)
3.23
3.46
3.33
3.87
4.19
18.73 0.91
15.09 1.04
17.52 0.90
17.16 0.83
16.52 0.76
ROE (%) Net gearing (%)
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 1 of 6
Figure 1: Quarterly earnings preview Profit and Loss (Btmn)
FY Ended 31 Dec Revenue Gross profit EBITDA Interest expense Other income Income tax Gn (Ls) from affiliates Net profit (loss) Normalized profit (loss)
1Q14 3,513 1,127 434 (84) 15 (67) (9) 260 260
4Q14 6,053 2,057 1,010 (96) (102) (170) (21) 608 608
1Q15E 5,245 1,743 865 (96) 11 (150) (15) 601 601
% YoY 49.3 54.6 99.2 14.3 (24.9) 123.5 59.6 131.2 131.2
% QoQ (13.3) (15.2) (14.4) 0.0 (110.8) (11.5) (27.2) (1.3) (1.3)
2015E 25,561 8,384 4,065 (397) 246 (724) (200) 2,898 2,898
% YoY 10.7 9.0 7.3 15.6 (485.6) 15.6 204.7 10.8 10.9
YTD (% 2014E) 20.5 20.8 21.3 24.1 4.5 20.7 7.5 20.7 20.7
Reported EPS (THB)
0.09
0.21
0.21
131.2
(1.3)
10.8
22.8
Gross margin ‐ residential Gross margin EBITDA margin (%) Net margin (%) Current ratio (x) Interest coverage (x) Debt / equity (x) BVPS (Bt) ROE (%)
32.4 32.4 12.4 7.4 3.2 4.8 1.2 5.0 12.2
33.0 33.0 16.7 10.1 3.8 10.4 0.9 5.5 25.5
33.0 33.0 16.5 11.4 ‐ 8.8 ‐ ‐ ‐
0.92 33.0 33.4 15.9 11.3 3.4 10.0 1.2 5.7 17.2
Source: AP, KT ZMICO Research REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 2 of 6
Figure 2: Project launches
Source: AP, KT ZMICO Research REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 3 of 6
Figure 3: Distribution of backlog as of 22 Feb 14 (excluding presales from JV projects)
Source: AP, KT ZMICO Research
Figure 4: Presales
Source: AP, KT ZMICO Research
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 4 of 6
FINANCIAL TABLE PROFIT & LOSS (Btmn) Revenues Cost of sales and service Gross profit SG&A EBITDA Depreciation & amortization EBIT Interest expense Other income / exp. EBT Corporate tax Forex gain (loss) Extra Items Gain (loss) from affiliates Net profit Reported EPS Fully diluted EPS Core net profit Core EPS Dividend (Bt) BALANCE SHEET (Btmn) Cash and equivalents Accounts receivable Inventories PP&E‐net Other assets Total assets ST debt & current portion Long‐term debt Total liabilities Paid‐up shares Shareholder equity Total liab. & shareholder equity CASH FLOW (Btmn) Net income Forex and other extraordinary adjustments Depreciation & amortization Change in working capital Cash flow from operations Capex (Invest)/Divest Others Cash flow from investing Debt financing (repayment) Equity financing Dividend payment Others Cash flow from financing Net change in cash Free cash flow FCF per share (Bt) PROFITABILITY Revenue growth (%) EBITDA growth (%) EPS growth (%) Gross margin ‐ residential (%) EBITDA margin (%) Operating margin (%) Net margin (%) Core profit margin (%) Effective tax rate (%)
2012 17,310 (11,274) 6,036 (3,128) 3,061 (152) 2,908 (213) 65 2,760 (691) 0 117 0 2,186 0.77 0.76 2,097 0.74 0.25
2013 19,989 (13,238) 6,750 (3,976) 2,933 (159) 2,774 (293) 67 2,549 (539) 0 5 (1) 2,013 0.70 0.70 2,010 0.70 0.27
2014 23,096 (15,251) 7,845 (4,140) 3,789 (84) 3,705 (344) (55) 3,306 (627) 0 2 (66) 2,615 0.83 0.92 2,614 0.83 0.28
2015E 25,561 (17,023) 8,538 (4,573) 4,065 (100) 3,965 (397) 255 3,822 (724) 0 0 (200) 2,898 0.92 1.01 2,898 0.92 0.30
2016E 25,536 (17,041) 8,495 (4,421) 4,191 (118) 4,073 (410) 66 3,729 (786) 0 0 200 3,143 1.00 1.10 3,143 1.00 0.33
2012 744 108 26,490 127 2,004 29,472 4,209 8,073 12,282 2,848 12,680 29,472
2013 889 110 30,784 129 2,497 34,410 5,059 10,371 15,430 2,860 14,007 34,410
2014 463 96 31,673 132 3,199 35,564 4,431 10,274 14,705 3,146 15,848 35,564
2015E 858 148 35,410 125 3,662 40,204 5,362 10,300 15,662 3,146 17,928 40,204
2016E 930 148 38,051 110 3,673 42,913 5,780 10,400 16,180 3,146 20,123 42,913
2012 2,186 (103) 152 724 2,492 (50) 266 216 (1,959) 66 (509) 1 (2,400) 438 3,991 1.41
2013 2,013 (5) 159 (4,419) (2,669) (69) (20) (89) 3,589 29 (715) 2 2,905 744 (1,540) (0.54)
2014 2,615 108 84 (1,564) 956 (51) 170 119 (729) 0 (772) 3 (1,498) 889 2,370 0.75
2015E 2,898 0 100 (2,671) 319 (56) (7) (63) 957 0 (818) 4 143 463 1,364 0.43
2016E 3,143 0 118 (2,663) 590 (56) (32) (88) 518 0 (949) 5 (426) 858 1,691 0.54
2012 26.9 13.1 40.0 34.4 17.7 16.9 12.7 12.2 (24.0)
2013 15.5 (4.2) (8.6) 33.3 14.7 14.0 10.1 10.1 (21.1)
2014 15.5 29.2 18.0 33.5 16.4 16.1 11.4 11.4 (19.3)
2015E 10.7 7.3 10.8 33.0 15.9 15.6 11.4 11.4 (20.0)
2016E (0.1) 3.1 8.5 32.9 16.4 16.0 12.4 12.4 (20.0)
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 5 of 6
DISCLAIMER This document is produced using open sources believed to be reliable. However, their accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. The statements and opinions herein were formed after due and careful consideration for use as information for the purposes of investment. The opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. This document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. The use of any information contained in this document shall be at the sole discretion and risk of the user.
KT ZMICO RESEARCH – RECOMMENDATION DEFINITIONS STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS BUY: Expecting positive total returns of 15% or more over the next 12 months OUTPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to exceed market returns over a six‐month period due to specific catalysts UNDERPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to be below market returns over a six‐month period due to specific catalysts SELL: Expecting negative total returns of 10% or more over the next 12 months
SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS OVERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to outperform the relevant primary market index by at least 10% over the next 12 months. NEUTRAL: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to perform in line with the relevant primary market index over the next 12 months. UNDERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to underperform the relevant primary market index by 10% over the next 12 months.
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 6 of 6
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KT•ZMICO Securities Company Limited
st
8 , 15 -17 , 19 , 21 Floor, Liberty Square Bldg., 287 Silom Road, Bangrak, Bangkok 10500 Telephone: (66-2) 695-5000
Phaholyothin Branch
rd
Fax. (66-2) 631-1709
Ploenchit Branch
th
nd
2
Sindhorn Branch
3 Floor, Shinnawatra Tower II,
8 Floor, Ton Son Tower,
1291/1 Phaholyothin Road,
900 Ploenchit Road, Lumpini,
Floor, Sindhorn Tower 1, 130-132 Wireless Road, Lumpini,
Phayathai, Bangkok 10400
Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330
Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330
Telephone: (66-2) 686-1500
Telephone: (66-2) 626-6000
Telephone: (66-2) 627-3550
Fax. (66-2) 686-1666
Fax. (66-2) 626-6111
Fax. (66-2) 627-3582, 627-3600
Nakhon Pathom Branch 1156 Petchakasem Road, Sanamchan Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang , Nakhon Pathom Province 73000 Telephone: (034) 271300 Fax: (034) 271300 #100
Chachoengsao Branch
Viphavadee Branch
Phitsanulok Branch
G Floor, Lao Peng Nguan 1 Bldg.,
Krung Thai Bank, Singhawat Branch
333 Soi Cheypuand, Viphavadee-Rangsit Road,
114 Singhawat Road,
Ladyao, Jatujak, Bangkok 10900
Muang, Phitsanulok 65000
Telephone: (66-2) 618-8500
Telephone: 083-490-2873
Fax. (66-2) 618-8569
th
Chonburi Branch
Pattaya Branch
108/34-36 Mahajakkrapad Road,
4 Floor, Forum Plaza Bldg.,
382/6-8 Moo 9, T. NongPrue,
T.Namuang, A.Muang,
870/52 Sukhumvit Road, T. Bangplasoy,
A. Banglamung, Cholburi 20260
Chachoengsao 24000
A. Muang, Cholburi 20000
Telephone: (038) 362-420-9
Telephone: (038) 813-088
Telephone: (038) 287-635
Fax. (038) 362-430
Fax. (038) 813-099
Fax. (038) 287-637
Khon Kaen Branch
5th Floor, Charoen Thani Princess Hotel,
Hat Yai Branch
Sriworajak Building Branch
200/301 Juldis Hatyai Plaza Floor 3,
1st – 2nd Floor, Sriworajak Building, 222
260 Srichan Road, T. Naimuang,
Niphat-Uthit 3 Rd,
Luang Road, Pomprab,
A. Muang, Khon Kaen 40000
Hatyai Songkhla 90110
Bankgok 10100
Telephone: (043) 389-171-193
Telephone: (074) 355-530-3
Telephone: (02) 689-3100
Fax. (043) 389-209
Fax: (074) 355-534
Fax. (02) 689-3199
Central World Branch
Chiang Mai Branch
Phuket Branch
999/9 The Offices at Central World,
422/49 Changklan Road, Changklan
22/61-63, Luang Por Wat Chalong Road,
16th Fl., Rama 1 Rd, Pathumwan,
Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang,
Talat Yai, Mueang Phuket,
Bangkok 10330
Chiang Mai 50100
Phuket 83000
Telephone: (66-2) 673-5000,
Telephone: (053) 270-072
Tel. (076) 222-811,(076) 222-683
(66-2) 264-5888 Fax. (66-2) 264-5899
Fax: (053) 272-618
Fax. (076) 222-861
Pak Chong Branch
Cyber Branch @ North Nana
173 175, Mittapap Road,
Krung Thai Bank PCL, 2 Floor, North Nana Branch 35 Sukhumvit Rd.,Klong Toey Nua Subdistrict , Wattana District, Bangkok 10110 Telephone: 083-490-2871
Nong Sarai, Pak Chong, Nakhon Ratchasima 30130 Tel. (044) 279-511 Fax. (044) 279-574
Nakhon Ratchasima Branch
Bangkhae Branch
6th Floor The Mall Group Building Bangkhae 275 Moo 1 Petchkasem Road, North Bangkhae, Bangkhae, Bangkok 10160 Tel. (66-2) 454-9979 Fax. (66-2) 454-9970
624/9 Changphuek Road, . Naimaung, A.Maung, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000 Telephone: (044) 247222 Fax: (044) 247171 Information herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its completeness and accuracy are not guaranteed. All opinions expressed constitute our views on that date and are not intended as an offer or solicitation to sell or buy any securities. Investors should exercise care when making a decision to invest in securities. No one may modify or distribute any part of this report unless written permission is first received from Seamico Securities Plc. If any modifications are made, quotes or references taken from the report and the report date must be clearly mentioned and must not cause misunderstanding or damage to the company.
Company Update
Close Bt7.80
Property Development April 27, 2015
Earnings upgrade/Earnings downgrade/Overview unchanged
Strong YoY earnings growth in 1Q15E
FY15
FY16
Consensus EPS (Bt)
0.901
0.973
KT ZMICO vs. consensus Share data
2.1%
2.8%
Reuters / Bloomberg
AP.BK/AP TB
Paid‐up Shares (m)
3,145.90
Par (Bt)
1.00
Market cap (Bt bn / US$ m) Foreign limit / actual (%)
25.00/754.00 30.00/27.60
52 week High / Low (Bt)
7.80/4.51
Avg. daily T/O (shares 000)
17,490.00
NVDR (%)
11.92
Estimated free float (%)
67.47
Beta
1.27
URL
www.apthai.com
CGR
Solid prospects already priced in: changed to Underperform Presales were quite strong in 1Q15 on the back of the strong take‐up rate of a SDH project. The strong low‐rise presales together with a CD completion should lead to a YoY spike in 1Q15E earnings. Nevertheless, we cut the rating from Outperform to Underperform with a TP of Bt7.80 (8.5x), believing that the share is already fully valued. Presales were strong in 1Q15E AP had net presales of Bt4.6bn in 1Q15 (+114.6% YoY, ‐10.5% QoQ). While the QoQ decline is mainly due to the difference in new launches, the YoY spike is attributable to i.) a low base in 1Q14 and ii.) strong launch of The City Sukhumvit‐Bangna (Bt1.0bn, 30% sold), a SDH project located 2km from BTS Udomsuk; 1Q15 low‐rise presales were Bt3.2bn (+31.3% YoY, +10.4% QoQ). YoY earnings growth on low‐rise recovery and completion of big condo We have 1Q15E earnings of Bt601m (+131.2% YoY, ‐1.3% QoQ). The slight QoQ decrease is due to a lot of CD completions in 3Q‐4Q14. On the other hand, the big YoY jump comes from i.) the recovery of low‐rise transfers and ii.) completion of Rhythm Sathorn‐Narathiwas (Bt1.6bn, 96% sold). Raise 2015E earnings by 2.9% The strong low‐rise presales in 1Q15 lead us to raise 15E transfers by 0.9% to Bt25.4bn (+10.7%). We also fine‐tune GPM, raising it from 32.8% to 33.0%, resulting in 2.9% increase in net profit to Bt2.9bn (+10.8%). Downgrade from Outperform to Underperform, fully valued Despite the higher TP of Bt7.80 (8.5x PER), up from Bt7.60, there is no price upside left; therefore, we decide to cut the rating to Underperform, believing that AP's solid outlook is already priced in. Financials and Valuation FY Ended 31 Dec
2012
2013
2014
2015E
2016E
Revenues (Btmn)
17,310
19,989
23,096
25,561
25,536
Net profit (Btmn)
2,186
2,013
2,615
2,898
3,143
0.77
0.70
0.83
0.92
1.00
EPS (Bt)
Wasu Mattanapotchanart Analyst, no. 44357 [email protected] 66 (0) 2624‐6268
EPS growth (%)
40.0
‐8.6
18.0
10.8
8.5
Dividend (Bt)
0.25
0.27
0.26
0.30
0.33
BV (Bt)
4.47
4.90
5.04
5.70
6.40
FY Ended 31 Dec
2012
2013
2014
2015E
2016E
Norm. PER (x)
10.5
11.1
9.4
8.5
7.8
EV/EBITDA (x)
11.1
12.6
9.6
9.1
9.0
PBV (x)
1.74
1.59
1.55
1.37
1.22
Dividend yield (%)
3.23
3.46
3.33
3.87
4.19
18.73 0.91
15.09 1.04
17.52 0.90
17.16 0.83
16.52 0.76
ROE (%) Net gearing (%)
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 1 of 6
Figure 1: Quarterly earnings preview Profit and Loss (Btmn)
FY Ended 31 Dec Revenue Gross profit EBITDA Interest expense Other income Income tax Gn (Ls) from affiliates Net profit (loss) Normalized profit (loss)
1Q14 3,513 1,127 434 (84) 15 (67) (9) 260 260
4Q14 6,053 2,057 1,010 (96) (102) (170) (21) 608 608
1Q15E 5,245 1,743 865 (96) 11 (150) (15) 601 601
% YoY 49.3 54.6 99.2 14.3 (24.9) 123.5 59.6 131.2 131.2
% QoQ (13.3) (15.2) (14.4) 0.0 (110.8) (11.5) (27.2) (1.3) (1.3)
2015E 25,561 8,384 4,065 (397) 246 (724) (200) 2,898 2,898
% YoY 10.7 9.0 7.3 15.6 (485.6) 15.6 204.7 10.8 10.9
YTD (% 2014E) 20.5 20.8 21.3 24.1 4.5 20.7 7.5 20.7 20.7
Reported EPS (THB)
0.09
0.21
0.21
131.2
(1.3)
10.8
22.8
Gross margin ‐ residential Gross margin EBITDA margin (%) Net margin (%) Current ratio (x) Interest coverage (x) Debt / equity (x) BVPS (Bt) ROE (%)
32.4 32.4 12.4 7.4 3.2 4.8 1.2 5.0 12.2
33.0 33.0 16.7 10.1 3.8 10.4 0.9 5.5 25.5
33.0 33.0 16.5 11.4 ‐ 8.8 ‐ ‐ ‐
0.92 33.0 33.4 15.9 11.3 3.4 10.0 1.2 5.7 17.2
Source: AP, KT ZMICO Research REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 2 of 6
Figure 2: Project launches
Source: AP, KT ZMICO Research REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 3 of 6
Figure 3: Distribution of backlog as of 22 Feb 14 (excluding presales from JV projects)
Source: AP, KT ZMICO Research
Figure 4: Presales
Source: AP, KT ZMICO Research
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 4 of 6
FINANCIAL TABLE PROFIT & LOSS (Btmn) Revenues Cost of sales and service Gross profit SG&A EBITDA Depreciation & amortization EBIT Interest expense Other income / exp. EBT Corporate tax Forex gain (loss) Extra Items Gain (loss) from affiliates Net profit Reported EPS Fully diluted EPS Core net profit Core EPS Dividend (Bt) BALANCE SHEET (Btmn) Cash and equivalents Accounts receivable Inventories PP&E‐net Other assets Total assets ST debt & current portion Long‐term debt Total liabilities Paid‐up shares Shareholder equity Total liab. & shareholder equity CASH FLOW (Btmn) Net income Forex and other extraordinary adjustments Depreciation & amortization Change in working capital Cash flow from operations Capex (Invest)/Divest Others Cash flow from investing Debt financing (repayment) Equity financing Dividend payment Others Cash flow from financing Net change in cash Free cash flow FCF per share (Bt) PROFITABILITY Revenue growth (%) EBITDA growth (%) EPS growth (%) Gross margin ‐ residential (%) EBITDA margin (%) Operating margin (%) Net margin (%) Core profit margin (%) Effective tax rate (%)
2012 17,310 (11,274) 6,036 (3,128) 3,061 (152) 2,908 (213) 65 2,760 (691) 0 117 0 2,186 0.77 0.76 2,097 0.74 0.25
2013 19,989 (13,238) 6,750 (3,976) 2,933 (159) 2,774 (293) 67 2,549 (539) 0 5 (1) 2,013 0.70 0.70 2,010 0.70 0.27
2014 23,096 (15,251) 7,845 (4,140) 3,789 (84) 3,705 (344) (55) 3,306 (627) 0 2 (66) 2,615 0.83 0.92 2,614 0.83 0.28
2015E 25,561 (17,023) 8,538 (4,573) 4,065 (100) 3,965 (397) 255 3,822 (724) 0 0 (200) 2,898 0.92 1.01 2,898 0.92 0.30
2016E 25,536 (17,041) 8,495 (4,421) 4,191 (118) 4,073 (410) 66 3,729 (786) 0 0 200 3,143 1.00 1.10 3,143 1.00 0.33
2012 744 108 26,490 127 2,004 29,472 4,209 8,073 12,282 2,848 12,680 29,472
2013 889 110 30,784 129 2,497 34,410 5,059 10,371 15,430 2,860 14,007 34,410
2014 463 96 31,673 132 3,199 35,564 4,431 10,274 14,705 3,146 15,848 35,564
2015E 858 148 35,410 125 3,662 40,204 5,362 10,300 15,662 3,146 17,928 40,204
2016E 930 148 38,051 110 3,673 42,913 5,780 10,400 16,180 3,146 20,123 42,913
2012 2,186 (103) 152 724 2,492 (50) 266 216 (1,959) 66 (509) 1 (2,400) 438 3,991 1.41
2013 2,013 (5) 159 (4,419) (2,669) (69) (20) (89) 3,589 29 (715) 2 2,905 744 (1,540) (0.54)
2014 2,615 108 84 (1,564) 956 (51) 170 119 (729) 0 (772) 3 (1,498) 889 2,370 0.75
2015E 2,898 0 100 (2,671) 319 (56) (7) (63) 957 0 (818) 4 143 463 1,364 0.43
2016E 3,143 0 118 (2,663) 590 (56) (32) (88) 518 0 (949) 5 (426) 858 1,691 0.54
2012 26.9 13.1 40.0 34.4 17.7 16.9 12.7 12.2 (24.0)
2013 15.5 (4.2) (8.6) 33.3 14.7 14.0 10.1 10.1 (21.1)
2014 15.5 29.2 18.0 33.5 16.4 16.1 11.4 11.4 (19.3)
2015E 10.7 7.3 10.8 33.0 15.9 15.6 11.4 11.4 (20.0)
2016E (0.1) 3.1 8.5 32.9 16.4 16.0 12.4 12.4 (20.0)
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 5 of 6
DISCLAIMER This document is produced using open sources believed to be reliable. However, their accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. The statements and opinions herein were formed after due and careful consideration for use as information for the purposes of investment. The opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. This document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. The use of any information contained in this document shall be at the sole discretion and risk of the user.
KT ZMICO RESEARCH – RECOMMENDATION DEFINITIONS STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS BUY: Expecting positive total returns of 15% or more over the next 12 months OUTPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to exceed market returns over a six‐month period due to specific catalysts UNDERPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to be below market returns over a six‐month period due to specific catalysts SELL: Expecting negative total returns of 10% or more over the next 12 months
SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS OVERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to outperform the relevant primary market index by at least 10% over the next 12 months. NEUTRAL: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to perform in line with the relevant primary market index over the next 12 months. UNDERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to underperform the relevant primary market index by 10% over the next 12 months.
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KT•ZMICO Securities Company Limited
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8 , 15 -17 , 19 , 21 Floor, Liberty Square Bldg., 287 Silom Road, Bangrak, Bangkok 10500 Telephone: (66-2) 695-5000
Phaholyothin Branch
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Fax. (66-2) 631-1709
Ploenchit Branch
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nd
2
Sindhorn Branch
3 Floor, Shinnawatra Tower II,
8 Floor, Ton Son Tower,
1291/1 Phaholyothin Road,
900 Ploenchit Road, Lumpini,
Floor, Sindhorn Tower 1, 130-132 Wireless Road, Lumpini,
Phayathai, Bangkok 10400
Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330
Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330
Telephone: (66-2) 686-1500
Telephone: (66-2) 626-6000
Telephone: (66-2) 627-3550
Fax. (66-2) 686-1666
Fax. (66-2) 626-6111
Fax. (66-2) 627-3582, 627-3600
Nakhon Pathom Branch 1156 Petchakasem Road, Sanamchan Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang , Nakhon Pathom Province 73000 Telephone: (034) 271300 Fax: (034) 271300 #100
Chachoengsao Branch
Viphavadee Branch
Phitsanulok Branch
G Floor, Lao Peng Nguan 1 Bldg.,
Krung Thai Bank, Singhawat Branch
333 Soi Cheypuand, Viphavadee-Rangsit Road,
114 Singhawat Road,
Ladyao, Jatujak, Bangkok 10900
Muang, Phitsanulok 65000
Telephone: (66-2) 618-8500
Telephone: 083-490-2873
Fax. (66-2) 618-8569
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Chonburi Branch
Pattaya Branch
108/34-36 Mahajakkrapad Road,
4 Floor, Forum Plaza Bldg.,
382/6-8 Moo 9, T. NongPrue,
T.Namuang, A.Muang,
870/52 Sukhumvit Road, T. Bangplasoy,
A. Banglamung, Cholburi 20260
Chachoengsao 24000
A. Muang, Cholburi 20000
Telephone: (038) 362-420-9
Telephone: (038) 813-088
Telephone: (038) 287-635
Fax. (038) 362-430
Fax. (038) 813-099
Fax. (038) 287-637
Khon Kaen Branch
5th Floor, Charoen Thani Princess Hotel,
Hat Yai Branch
Sriworajak Building Branch
200/301 Juldis Hatyai Plaza Floor 3,
1st – 2nd Floor, Sriworajak Building, 222
260 Srichan Road, T. Naimuang,
Niphat-Uthit 3 Rd,
Luang Road, Pomprab,
A. Muang, Khon Kaen 40000
Hatyai Songkhla 90110
Bankgok 10100
Telephone: (043) 389-171-193
Telephone: (074) 355-530-3
Telephone: (02) 689-3100
Fax. (043) 389-209
Fax: (074) 355-534
Fax. (02) 689-3199
Central World Branch
Chiang Mai Branch
Phuket Branch
999/9 The Offices at Central World,
422/49 Changklan Road, Changklan
22/61-63, Luang Por Wat Chalong Road,
16th Fl., Rama 1 Rd, Pathumwan,
Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang,
Talat Yai, Mueang Phuket,
Bangkok 10330
Chiang Mai 50100
Phuket 83000
Telephone: (66-2) 673-5000,
Telephone: (053) 270-072
Tel. (076) 222-811,(076) 222-683
(66-2) 264-5888 Fax. (66-2) 264-5899
Fax: (053) 272-618
Fax. (076) 222-861
Pak Chong Branch
Cyber Branch @ North Nana
173 175, Mittapap Road,
Krung Thai Bank PCL, 2 Floor, North Nana Branch 35 Sukhumvit Rd.,Klong Toey Nua Subdistrict , Wattana District, Bangkok 10110 Telephone: 083-490-2871
Nong Sarai, Pak Chong, Nakhon Ratchasima 30130 Tel. (044) 279-511 Fax. (044) 279-574
Nakhon Ratchasima Branch
Bangkhae Branch
6th Floor The Mall Group Building Bangkhae 275 Moo 1 Petchkasem Road, North Bangkhae, Bangkhae, Bangkok 10160 Tel. (66-2) 454-9979 Fax. (66-2) 454-9970
624/9 Changphuek Road, . Naimaung, A.Maung, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000 Telephone: (044) 247222 Fax: (044) 247171 Information herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its completeness and accuracy are not guaranteed. All opinions expressed constitute our views on that date and are not intended as an offer or solicitation to sell or buy any securities. Investors should exercise care when making a decision to invest in securities. No one may modify or distribute any part of this report unless written permission is first received from Seamico Securities Plc. If any modifications are made, quotes or references taken from the report and the report date must be clearly mentioned and must not cause misunderstanding or damage to the company.
