15E TP Bt220.00 - Global Alliance Partners

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Earnings Review July 18, 2014

The Siam Commercial Bank

BUY (15E TP Bt220.00) Price Bt184.00

2Q14 earnings beat our estimate and the street We maintain a BUY call for SCB and the 15E target price of Bt220/share (for an implied target P/BV of 2.3x). We like SCB on its superior ROE and solid non-interest income base vs. peers. On top of that, the bank is well positioned to benefit from the prospect of the resumption of economic recovery. Facts and Figures 

2Q14 NP beat our forecast and street estimate by 7-8%: SCB’s 2Q14 net profit (NP) of Bt14.7bn (+16% YoY, +12% QoQ) was ahead of our forecast (Bt13.6bn) by 8% and the street estimate (Bt13.8bn) by 7%.



1H14 NP of Bt27.9bn (+8% YoY) accounted for 52% of our 2014E NP forecast: We maintained our 14E forecast.

Analysis

Stock Performance (%)

Absolute

1M

3M

12M

10.51

11.17

11.51

5.20

2.30

9.02

Relative to SET Share data Reuters / Bloomberg

 2Q14 NP beat our estimate on lower provision and higher NIM: The higher-than-expected NP was due mainly to a lower-than-expected provision and higher NIM (by 10 bps). Note that we assumed the bank to set an extra provision of ~Bt1.0bn on top of its normalized provision. Excluding this item, the core profit was relatively in line with our estimate.

Sector

 2Q14 NP up 16% YoY and 12% QoQ: Meanwhile, PPOP also grew 4% YoY but dropped 4% QoQ. The solid NP growth YoY and QoQ was due mainly to 1) the booking of extra pretax gain of Bt1.8bn from the sale of The Siam Commercial Samaggi Insurance (SCSMG) in 2Q14; 2) strong NIM improvement (+23 bps YoY, +14 bps QoQ); and 3) its continued efficient cost control. The stronger NIM despite the rate cut was due to the bank’s efficient NIM management through the reduction of deposits by 2% QoQ amid flat loan growth QoQ.

Avg. daily T/O (shares 000)

2012

2013

2014E

2015E

2016E

48,608

62,117

66,396

73,250

81,899

Provision (Btmn)

9,396

13,641

15,106

14,400

14,777

Net Profit (Btmn)

40,220

50,233

53,165

59,016

67,121

11.83

14.78

15.64

17.36

19.75

EPS Growth (%)

11%

25%

6%

11%

14%

Book value (Bt)

62.89

72.45

84.15

96.33

110.67

4.50

5.25

5.50

5.75

6.00

EPS (Bt)

Dividend (Bt)

2012

2013

2014E

2015E

PER (X)

15.55

12.45

11.76

10.60

9.32

PBV (X)

2.93

2.54

2.19

1.91

1.66

Dividend Yield (%)

2.45

2.85

2.99

3.13

3.26

ROE (%)

20%

22%

20%

19%

19%

FY Ended 31 Dec

3,394.25

Par (Bt)

10.00

Market cap (Bt bn / US$ m)

625.00/19,438.00

Foreign limit / actual (%)

45.81/37.08

52 week High / Low (Bt)

187.00/130.50 7,674.00

NVDR (%)

3.88

Estimated free float (%)

76.23

Beta

1.39

URL

www.scb.co.th

Major Shareholders (18/04/2014) The Crown Property Bureau

21.30 %

Vayupak Mutual Fund 1 By Mfc Fund

11.58 %

Vayupak Mutual Fund 1 By KTB Fund

11.58 %

Financial and Valuation FY Ended 31 Dec

Banking

Paid-up Shares (m)

 Slight increase in NPLs not an issue: NPLs increased slightly by 4% QoQ mainly from SME loans while its NPL ratio was quite stable QoQ at 2.11%. Meanwhile, its NPL coverage ratio declined QoQ to 141% from 148%. Its reserve to the BoT’s required reserve remained solid at 151% in 2Q14 vs. 154% in 4Q13 and 146% in 2Q13.

PPOP (Btmn)

SCB.BK/SCB TB

Consensus EPS (Bt)

FY14

FY15

15.618

17.470

0.1%

-0.6%

KT ZMICO vs. consensus Company Profile

The Company is the commercial bank providing a full range of financial services, including corporate and personal lending, retail and wholesale banking, foreign currency operations, international trade financing, cash management, custodial services, credit and charge card services and investment banking services. CGR 2013

2016E

REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES

Prapharas Nonthapiboon Analyst, no 17836 [email protected] 66 (0) 2695-5872 page 1 of 3

Figure 1: 2Q14 Earnings Review Statement of comprehensive income (Btmn) Fiscal Year-Ended Dec.

2Q13

1Q14

2Q14 % YoY % QoQ

1H13

1H14 % YoY

2014E % YoY % 1H to 14E

Net Interest Income

17,913

19,369

20,428

14%

5% 35,150

39,797

13%

79,685

9%

50%

Non Interest Income

11,870

11,509

11,368

-4%

-1% 24,182

22,877

0%

49,005

4%

47%

Operating Income

29,783

30,878

31,796

7%

3% 59,332

62,674

6% 128,690

4%

49%

Operating Expenses

11,313

11,024

11,784

4%

7% 22,137

22,808

3%

48,740

3%

47%

Provision expenses (Reversal)

2,687

3,207

3,220

20%

0%

5,205

6,427

23%

15,106

11%

43%

Tax expenses

2,990

3,341

3,881

30%

16%

5,969

7,221

21%

13,054

10%

55%

Net Profit

12,644

13,129

14,723

16%

12% 25,760

27,852

8%

53,165

6%

52%

PPOP

15,147

16,396

15,753

4%

-4% 29,609

32,149

9%

66,396

7%

48%

3.72

3.86

4.33

16%

8.19

8%

15.64

6%

52%

EPS (Bt) Key Statistics and Ratios

2Q13

Gross NPLs (Btmn)

38,300

Gross NPLs/Loans

2.07%

Loan Loss Reserve/NPLs

1Q14 40,258

12%

7.58

2Q14

1H13

41,940

2.11%

1H14

38,300

2.11%

2.07%

144.9% 147.9% 141.1%

2014E

41,940

44,964

2.12%

2.23%

144.9% 141.1%

152.9%

Tier I/Risk Assets

11.1%

12.2%

12.9%

11.1%

12.9%

C apital Adequacy Ratio

14.5%

15.6%

16.3%

14.5%

16.3%

12.6% 16.2%

Loan to Deposit Ratio Loan to Deposit & borrowing

94.9%

96.9%

97.3%

94.9%

97.3%

98.5%

89.7%

92.1%

91.1%

89.7%

91.1%

92.4%

Provision to loans

0.70%

0.77%

0.76%

0.68%

0.76%

0.85%

C ost to Income

38.0%

35.7%

37.1%

37.3%

36.4%

37.9%

Non Interest Inc./Total Inc.

39.9%

37.3%

35.8%

40.8%

36.5%

38.1%

Net Interest Margin

3.12%

3.21%

3.35%

3.12%

3.27%

3.23%

Tax rate

18.9%

20.1%

20.9%

18.7%

20.5%

19.5%

Loan Growth YoY

16.8%

8.8%

4.9%

16.8%

4.9%

4.9%

Loan Growth QoQ

3.63%

-0.02%

-0.11%

3.6%

-0.11%

Source: Company data, KT ZMICO Research

Figure 2: SCB’s PER Band

Figure 3: SCB’s PBV Band

(X)

(X)

18 16

3.0 +2 S.D.

+2 S.D. 2.5

14 +1 S.D. 12

-0.5 S.D. Avg.

10

-1 S.D.

8

+1 S.D. +0.5 S.D. Avg.

2.0

-0.5 S.D. -1 S.D.

-2 S.D.

1.5 -2 S.D.

Source: Bloomberg, KT ZMICO Research

Jul-14

Feb-14

Apr-13

Sep-13

Nov-12

Jan-12

Jun-12

Aug-11

Oct-10

Mar-11

May-10

Jul-09

Dec-09

Feb-09

Apr-08

Sep-08

Nov-07

Jan-07

Jun-07

1.0

Jul-14

Feb-14

Apr-13

Sep-13

Nov-12

Jan-12

Jun-12

Aug-11

Oct-10

Mar-11

May-10

Jul-09

Dec-09

Feb-09

Apr-08

Sep-08

Jan-07

Jun-07

4

Nov-07

6

Source: Bloomberg, KT ZMICO Research

REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES

page 2 of 3

DISCLAIMER This document is produced using open sources believed to be reliable. However, their accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. The statements and opinions herein were formed after due and careful consideration for use as information for the purposes of investment. The opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. This document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. The use of any information contained in this document shall be at the sole discretion and risk of the user.

KT ZMICO RESEARCH – RECOMMENDATION DEFINITIONS STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS BUY: Expecting positive total returns of 15% or more over the next 12 months TRADING BUY: Expecting positive total returns of 10% or more over the next 3 months

SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS OVERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to outperform the relevant primary market index by at least 10% over the next 12 months.

SELL INTO STRENGTH: Expecting total returns between -10% to +10% over the next 12 month; share price has largely priced in fundamentals

The industry, as defined by the NEUTRAL: analyst's coverage universe, is expected to perform in line with the relevant primary market index over the next 12 months.

SELL: Expecting negative total returns of 10% or more over the next 12 months

UNDERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to underperform the relevant primary market index by 10% over the next 12 months.

REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES

page 3 of 3

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KT•ZMICO Securities Company Limited

st

8 , 15 -17 , 19 , 21 Floor, Liberty Square Bldg., 287 Silom Road, Bangrak, Bangkok 10500 Telephone: (66-2) 695-5000

Phaholyothin Branch

rd

Fax. (66-2) 631-1709

Ploenchit Branch

th

nd

2

Sindhorn Branch

3 Floor, Shinnawatra Tower II,

8 Floor, Ton Son Tower,

1291/1 Phaholyothin Road,

900 Ploenchit Road, Lumpini,

Floor, Sindhorn Tower 1, 130-132 Wireless Road, Lumpini,

Phayathai, Bangkok 10400

Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330

Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330

Telephone: (66-2) 686-1500

Telephone: (66-2) 626-6000

Telephone: (66-2) 627-3550

Fax. (66-2) 686-1666

Fax. (66-2) 626-6111

Fax. (66-2) 627-3582, 627-3600

Nakhon Pathom Branch 1156 Petchakasem Road, Sanamchan Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang , Nakhon Pathom Province 73000 Telephone: (034) 271300 Fax: (034) 271300 #100

Chachoengsao Branch

Viphavadee Branch

Phitsanulok Branch

G Floor, Lao Peng Nguan 1 Bldg.,

Krung Thai Bank, Singhawat Branch

333 Soi Cheypuand, Viphavadee-Rangsit Road,

114 Singhawat Road,

Ladyao, Jatujak, Bangkok 10900

Muang, Phitsanulok 65000

Telephone: (66-2) 618-8500

Telephone: 083-490-2873

Fax. (66-2) 618-8569

th

Chonburi Branch

Pattaya Branch

108/34-36 Mahajakkrapad Road,

4 Floor, Forum Plaza Bldg.,

382/6-8 Moo 9, T. NongPrue,

T.Namuang, A.Muang,

870/52 Sukhumvit Road, T. Bangplasoy,

A. Banglamung, Cholburi 20260

Chachoengsao 24000

A. Muang, Cholburi 20000

Telephone: (038) 362-420-9

Telephone: (038) 813-088

Telephone: (038) 287-635

Fax. (038) 362-430

Fax. (038) 813-099

Fax. (038) 287-637

Khon Kaen Branch

5th Floor, Charoen Thani Princess Hotel,

Hat Yai Branch

Sriworajak Building Branch

200/301 Juldis Hatyai Plaza Floor 3,

1st – 2nd Floor, Sriworajak Building, 222

260 Srichan Road, T. Naimuang,

Niphat-Uthit 3 Rd,

Luang Road, Pomprab,

A. Muang, Khon Kaen 40000

Hatyai Songkhla 90110

Bankgok 10100

Telephone: (043) 389-171-193

Telephone: (074) 355-530-3

Telephone: (02) 689-3100

Fax. (043) 389-209

Fax: (074) 355-534

Fax. (02) 689-3199

Central World Branch

Chiang Mai Branch

Phuket Branch

999/9 The Offices at Central World,

422/49 Changklan Road, Changklan

22/61-63, Luang Por Wat Chalong Road,

16th Fl., Rama 1 Rd, Pathumwan,

Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang,

Talat Yai, Mueang Phuket,

Bangkok 10330

Chiang Mai 50100

Phuket 83000

Telephone: (66-2) 673-5000,

Telephone: (053) 270-072

Tel. (076) 222-811,(076) 222-683

(66-2) 264-5888 Fax. (66-2) 264-5899

Fax: (053) 272-618

Fax. (076) 222-861

Pak Chong Branch

Cyber Branch @ North Nana

173 175, Mittapap Road,

Krung Thai Bank PCL, 2 Floor, North Nana Branch 35 Sukhumvit Rd.,Klong Toey Nua Subdistrict , Wattana District, Bangkok 10110 Telephone: 083-490-2871

Nong Sarai, Pak Chong, Nakhon Ratchasima 30130 Tel. (044) 279-511 Fax. (044) 279-574

Nakhon Ratchasima Branch

Bangkhae Branch

6th Floor The Mall Group Building Bangkhae 275 Moo 1 Petchkasem Road, North Bangkhae, Bangkhae, Bangkok 10160 Tel. (66-2) 454-9979 Fax. (66-2) 454-9970

624/9 Changphuek Road, . Naimaung, A.Maung, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000 Telephone: (044) 247222 Fax: (044) 247171 Information herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its completeness and accuracy are not guaranteed. All opinions expressed constitute our views on that date and are not intended as an offer or solicitation to sell or buy any securities. Investors should exercise care when making a decision to invest in securities. No one may modify or distribute any part of this report unless written permission is first received from Seamico Securities Plc. If any modifications are made, quotes or references taken from the report and the report date must be clearly mentioned and must not cause misunderstanding or damage to the company.