Earnings Review July 18, 2014
The Siam Commercial Bank
BUY (15E TP Bt220.00) Price Bt184.00
2Q14 earnings beat our estimate and the street We maintain a BUY call for SCB and the 15E target price of Bt220/share (for an implied target P/BV of 2.3x). We like SCB on its superior ROE and solid non-interest income base vs. peers. On top of that, the bank is well positioned to benefit from the prospect of the resumption of economic recovery. Facts and Figures
2Q14 NP beat our forecast and street estimate by 7-8%: SCB’s 2Q14 net profit (NP) of Bt14.7bn (+16% YoY, +12% QoQ) was ahead of our forecast (Bt13.6bn) by 8% and the street estimate (Bt13.8bn) by 7%.
1H14 NP of Bt27.9bn (+8% YoY) accounted for 52% of our 2014E NP forecast: We maintained our 14E forecast.
Analysis
Stock Performance (%)
Absolute
1M
3M
12M
10.51
11.17
11.51
5.20
2.30
9.02
Relative to SET Share data Reuters / Bloomberg
2Q14 NP beat our estimate on lower provision and higher NIM: The higher-than-expected NP was due mainly to a lower-than-expected provision and higher NIM (by 10 bps). Note that we assumed the bank to set an extra provision of ~Bt1.0bn on top of its normalized provision. Excluding this item, the core profit was relatively in line with our estimate.
Sector
2Q14 NP up 16% YoY and 12% QoQ: Meanwhile, PPOP also grew 4% YoY but dropped 4% QoQ. The solid NP growth YoY and QoQ was due mainly to 1) the booking of extra pretax gain of Bt1.8bn from the sale of The Siam Commercial Samaggi Insurance (SCSMG) in 2Q14; 2) strong NIM improvement (+23 bps YoY, +14 bps QoQ); and 3) its continued efficient cost control. The stronger NIM despite the rate cut was due to the bank’s efficient NIM management through the reduction of deposits by 2% QoQ amid flat loan growth QoQ.
Avg. daily T/O (shares 000)
2012
2013
2014E
2015E
2016E
48,608
62,117
66,396
73,250
81,899
Provision (Btmn)
9,396
13,641
15,106
14,400
14,777
Net Profit (Btmn)
40,220
50,233
53,165
59,016
67,121
11.83
14.78
15.64
17.36
19.75
EPS Growth (%)
11%
25%
6%
11%
14%
Book value (Bt)
62.89
72.45
84.15
96.33
110.67
4.50
5.25
5.50
5.75
6.00
EPS (Bt)
Dividend (Bt)
2012
2013
2014E
2015E
PER (X)
15.55
12.45
11.76
10.60
9.32
PBV (X)
2.93
2.54
2.19
1.91
1.66
Dividend Yield (%)
2.45
2.85
2.99
3.13
3.26
ROE (%)
20%
22%
20%
19%
19%
FY Ended 31 Dec
3,394.25
Par (Bt)
10.00
Market cap (Bt bn / US$ m)
625.00/19,438.00
Foreign limit / actual (%)
45.81/37.08
52 week High / Low (Bt)
187.00/130.50 7,674.00
NVDR (%)
3.88
Estimated free float (%)
76.23
Beta
1.39
URL
www.scb.co.th
Major Shareholders (18/04/2014) The Crown Property Bureau
21.30 %
Vayupak Mutual Fund 1 By Mfc Fund
11.58 %
Vayupak Mutual Fund 1 By KTB Fund
11.58 %
Financial and Valuation FY Ended 31 Dec
Banking
Paid-up Shares (m)
Slight increase in NPLs not an issue: NPLs increased slightly by 4% QoQ mainly from SME loans while its NPL ratio was quite stable QoQ at 2.11%. Meanwhile, its NPL coverage ratio declined QoQ to 141% from 148%. Its reserve to the BoT’s required reserve remained solid at 151% in 2Q14 vs. 154% in 4Q13 and 146% in 2Q13.
PPOP (Btmn)
SCB.BK/SCB TB
Consensus EPS (Bt)
FY14
FY15
15.618
17.470
0.1%
-0.6%
KT ZMICO vs. consensus Company Profile
The Company is the commercial bank providing a full range of financial services, including corporate and personal lending, retail and wholesale banking, foreign currency operations, international trade financing, cash management, custodial services, credit and charge card services and investment banking services. CGR 2013
2016E
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES
Prapharas Nonthapiboon Analyst, no 17836
[email protected] 66 (0) 2695-5872 page 1 of 3
Figure 1: 2Q14 Earnings Review Statement of comprehensive income (Btmn) Fiscal Year-Ended Dec.
2Q13
1Q14
2Q14 % YoY % QoQ
1H13
1H14 % YoY
2014E % YoY % 1H to 14E
Net Interest Income
17,913
19,369
20,428
14%
5% 35,150
39,797
13%
79,685
9%
50%
Non Interest Income
11,870
11,509
11,368
-4%
-1% 24,182
22,877
0%
49,005
4%
47%
Operating Income
29,783
30,878
31,796
7%
3% 59,332
62,674
6% 128,690
4%
49%
Operating Expenses
11,313
11,024
11,784
4%
7% 22,137
22,808
3%
48,740
3%
47%
Provision expenses (Reversal)
2,687
3,207
3,220
20%
0%
5,205
6,427
23%
15,106
11%
43%
Tax expenses
2,990
3,341
3,881
30%
16%
5,969
7,221
21%
13,054
10%
55%
Net Profit
12,644
13,129
14,723
16%
12% 25,760
27,852
8%
53,165
6%
52%
PPOP
15,147
16,396
15,753
4%
-4% 29,609
32,149
9%
66,396
7%
48%
3.72
3.86
4.33
16%
8.19
8%
15.64
6%
52%
EPS (Bt) Key Statistics and Ratios
2Q13
Gross NPLs (Btmn)
38,300
Gross NPLs/Loans
2.07%
Loan Loss Reserve/NPLs
1Q14 40,258
12%
7.58
2Q14
1H13
41,940
2.11%
1H14
38,300
2.11%
2.07%
144.9% 147.9% 141.1%
2014E
41,940
44,964
2.12%
2.23%
144.9% 141.1%
152.9%
Tier I/Risk Assets
11.1%
12.2%
12.9%
11.1%
12.9%
C apital Adequacy Ratio
14.5%
15.6%
16.3%
14.5%
16.3%
12.6% 16.2%
Loan to Deposit Ratio Loan to Deposit & borrowing
94.9%
96.9%
97.3%
94.9%
97.3%
98.5%
89.7%
92.1%
91.1%
89.7%
91.1%
92.4%
Provision to loans
0.70%
0.77%
0.76%
0.68%
0.76%
0.85%
C ost to Income
38.0%
35.7%
37.1%
37.3%
36.4%
37.9%
Non Interest Inc./Total Inc.
39.9%
37.3%
35.8%
40.8%
36.5%
38.1%
Net Interest Margin
3.12%
3.21%
3.35%
3.12%
3.27%
3.23%
Tax rate
18.9%
20.1%
20.9%
18.7%
20.5%
19.5%
Loan Growth YoY
16.8%
8.8%
4.9%
16.8%
4.9%
4.9%
Loan Growth QoQ
3.63%
-0.02%
-0.11%
3.6%
-0.11%
Source: Company data, KT ZMICO Research
Figure 2: SCB’s PER Band
Figure 3: SCB’s PBV Band
(X)
(X)
18 16
3.0 +2 S.D.
+2 S.D. 2.5
14 +1 S.D. 12
-0.5 S.D. Avg.
10
-1 S.D.
8
+1 S.D. +0.5 S.D. Avg.
2.0
-0.5 S.D. -1 S.D.
-2 S.D.
1.5 -2 S.D.
Source: Bloomberg, KT ZMICO Research
Jul-14
Feb-14
Apr-13
Sep-13
Nov-12
Jan-12
Jun-12
Aug-11
Oct-10
Mar-11
May-10
Jul-09
Dec-09
Feb-09
Apr-08
Sep-08
Nov-07
Jan-07
Jun-07
1.0
Jul-14
Feb-14
Apr-13
Sep-13
Nov-12
Jan-12
Jun-12
Aug-11
Oct-10
Mar-11
May-10
Jul-09
Dec-09
Feb-09
Apr-08
Sep-08
Jan-07
Jun-07
4
Nov-07
6
Source: Bloomberg, KT ZMICO Research
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES
page 2 of 3
DISCLAIMER This document is produced using open sources believed to be reliable. However, their accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. The statements and opinions herein were formed after due and careful consideration for use as information for the purposes of investment. The opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. This document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. The use of any information contained in this document shall be at the sole discretion and risk of the user.
KT ZMICO RESEARCH – RECOMMENDATION DEFINITIONS STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS BUY: Expecting positive total returns of 15% or more over the next 12 months TRADING BUY: Expecting positive total returns of 10% or more over the next 3 months
SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS OVERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to outperform the relevant primary market index by at least 10% over the next 12 months.
SELL INTO STRENGTH: Expecting total returns between -10% to +10% over the next 12 month; share price has largely priced in fundamentals
The industry, as defined by the NEUTRAL: analyst's coverage universe, is expected to perform in line with the relevant primary market index over the next 12 months.
SELL: Expecting negative total returns of 10% or more over the next 12 months
UNDERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to underperform the relevant primary market index by 10% over the next 12 months.
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES
page 3 of 3
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KT•ZMICO Securities Company Limited
st
8 , 15 -17 , 19 , 21 Floor, Liberty Square Bldg., 287 Silom Road, Bangrak, Bangkok 10500 Telephone: (66-2) 695-5000
Phaholyothin Branch
rd
Fax. (66-2) 631-1709
Ploenchit Branch
th
nd
2
Sindhorn Branch
3 Floor, Shinnawatra Tower II,
8 Floor, Ton Son Tower,
1291/1 Phaholyothin Road,
900 Ploenchit Road, Lumpini,
Floor, Sindhorn Tower 1, 130-132 Wireless Road, Lumpini,
Phayathai, Bangkok 10400
Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330
Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330
Telephone: (66-2) 686-1500
Telephone: (66-2) 626-6000
Telephone: (66-2) 627-3550
Fax. (66-2) 686-1666
Fax. (66-2) 626-6111
Fax. (66-2) 627-3582, 627-3600
Nakhon Pathom Branch 1156 Petchakasem Road, Sanamchan Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang , Nakhon Pathom Province 73000 Telephone: (034) 271300 Fax: (034) 271300 #100
Chachoengsao Branch
Viphavadee Branch
Phitsanulok Branch
G Floor, Lao Peng Nguan 1 Bldg.,
Krung Thai Bank, Singhawat Branch
333 Soi Cheypuand, Viphavadee-Rangsit Road,
114 Singhawat Road,
Ladyao, Jatujak, Bangkok 10900
Muang, Phitsanulok 65000
Telephone: (66-2) 618-8500
Telephone: 083-490-2873
Fax. (66-2) 618-8569
th
Chonburi Branch
Pattaya Branch
108/34-36 Mahajakkrapad Road,
4 Floor, Forum Plaza Bldg.,
382/6-8 Moo 9, T. NongPrue,
T.Namuang, A.Muang,
870/52 Sukhumvit Road, T. Bangplasoy,
A. Banglamung, Cholburi 20260
Chachoengsao 24000
A. Muang, Cholburi 20000
Telephone: (038) 362-420-9
Telephone: (038) 813-088
Telephone: (038) 287-635
Fax. (038) 362-430
Fax. (038) 813-099
Fax. (038) 287-637
Khon Kaen Branch
5th Floor, Charoen Thani Princess Hotel,
Hat Yai Branch
Sriworajak Building Branch
200/301 Juldis Hatyai Plaza Floor 3,
1st – 2nd Floor, Sriworajak Building, 222
260 Srichan Road, T. Naimuang,
Niphat-Uthit 3 Rd,
Luang Road, Pomprab,
A. Muang, Khon Kaen 40000
Hatyai Songkhla 90110
Bankgok 10100
Telephone: (043) 389-171-193
Telephone: (074) 355-530-3
Telephone: (02) 689-3100
Fax. (043) 389-209
Fax: (074) 355-534
Fax. (02) 689-3199
Central World Branch
Chiang Mai Branch
Phuket Branch
999/9 The Offices at Central World,
422/49 Changklan Road, Changklan
22/61-63, Luang Por Wat Chalong Road,
16th Fl., Rama 1 Rd, Pathumwan,
Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang,
Talat Yai, Mueang Phuket,
Bangkok 10330
Chiang Mai 50100
Phuket 83000
Telephone: (66-2) 673-5000,
Telephone: (053) 270-072
Tel. (076) 222-811,(076) 222-683
(66-2) 264-5888 Fax. (66-2) 264-5899
Fax: (053) 272-618
Fax. (076) 222-861
Pak Chong Branch
Cyber Branch @ North Nana
173 175, Mittapap Road,
Krung Thai Bank PCL, 2 Floor, North Nana Branch 35 Sukhumvit Rd.,Klong Toey Nua Subdistrict , Wattana District, Bangkok 10110 Telephone: 083-490-2871
Nong Sarai, Pak Chong, Nakhon Ratchasima 30130 Tel. (044) 279-511 Fax. (044) 279-574
Nakhon Ratchasima Branch
Bangkhae Branch
6th Floor The Mall Group Building Bangkhae 275 Moo 1 Petchkasem Road, North Bangkhae, Bangkhae, Bangkok 10160 Tel. (66-2) 454-9979 Fax. (66-2) 454-9970
624/9 Changphuek Road, . Naimaung, A.Maung, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000 Telephone: (044) 247222 Fax: (044) 247171 Information herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its completeness and accuracy are not guaranteed. All opinions expressed constitute our views on that date and are not intended as an offer or solicitation to sell or buy any securities. Investors should exercise care when making a decision to invest in securities. No one may modify or distribute any part of this report unless written permission is first received from Seamico Securities Plc. If any modifications are made, quotes or references taken from the report and the report date must be clearly mentioned and must not cause misunderstanding or damage to the company.