VGI Global Media Underperform (FY16E TP Bt5.60)
Earnings Review
Close Bt4.58
Media & Publishing August 4, 2015
Beat forecast/Below forecast/In line
Weaker‐than‐expected result Price Performance (%)
Source: SET Smart
FY16
Consensus EPS (Bt)
0.173
0.195
KT ZMICO vs. consensus Share data
‐5.8%
‐8.2%
Reuters / Bloomberg
FY17
VGI.BK/VGI TB
Paid‐up Shares (m)
6,864.32
Par (Bt)
0.10
Market cap (Bt bn / US$ m) Foreign limit / actual (%)
31.00/897.00 49.00/4.51
52 week High / Low (Bt)
7.30/4.20
Avg. daily T/O (shares 000)
18,581.00
NVDR (%)
2.07
Estimated free float (%)
36.4
Beta
0.91
URL
www.vgi.co.th ‐
CGR
Raenoo Bhandasukdi Analyst no. 17989
[email protected] 66 (0) 2695‐5836
Rating changed to “Underperform” VGI’s reporting of weaker‐than‐expected results along with lower revenue guidance in FY16E should be a negative signal for the share price in the short term. That being said, we still believe in the growth story in the long term from both the existing business and potential expansion, even though it is likely to take more time. In our view, VGI’s share price, which is trading at PER of 28x, close to the ‐1.5SD level at PER of 26x, should have limited downside risk. However, we change our rating to “Underperform” while maintaining the SOTP‐based TP of Bt5.60 for VGI. Results in line on extra item VGI posted net profit of Bt240mn in 1QFY16 (Apr – Jun 15), in line with our forecast and the consensus expectation of Bt246mn. However, VGI booked extra gain of Bt45mn (after tax) due to lower provision expenses related to the advertising management contract termination with BIGC. Stripping out extra items, VGI delivered normalized profit of Bt195mn, falling by 24% YoY and 15% QoQ, owing to the revenue decline. Meanwhile, VGI still realized revenue from modern trade of Bt50mn this quarter, preventing its gross profit margin from recovering as we earlier expected. VGI revised down company’s own revenue growth target VGI has turned more bearish on advertising industry spending in 2HFY16E owing to the sluggish economy and weak private consumption. As such, the company revised down its revenue growth target for this fiscal year to ‐26%, vs. ‐12% previously expected. FY16‐17E earnings to have downside risk VGI’s earnings in 1QFY16 contributed 21% to our current full‐year net profit projection of Bt1.1bn. Although we believe there could be a larger revenue contribution in 2HFY16E due to the start of media operations at seven additional BTS stations in May‐15, the lower revenue growth target by VGI puts our projection at risk. Financials and Valuation (Before XD) FY Ended 31 Mar FY13 Revenues (Btmn) 2,838 Net profit (Btmn) 902 EPS (Bt) 0.301 Norm. profit (Btmn) 902 Norm. EPS (Bt) 0.301 Norm. EPS growth (%) 8.01 Dividend (Bt) 0.270 BV (Bt) 0.607 FY Ended 31 Mar FY13 PER (x) 15.24 EV/EBITDA (x) 9.99 P/BV (x) 7.55 Dividend yield (%) 5.90 ROE (%) 85.30 Net gearing (%) cash
FY14 3,149 1,146 0.334 1,146 0.334 11.08 0.320 0.569 FY14 13.72 9.07 8.05 6.99 60.71 cash
FY15 2,963 999 0.122 838 0.146 (56.38) 0.176 0.266 FY15 31.45 10.26 17.19 3.84 44.29 18.75
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 1 of 3
FY16E 2,460 1,119 0.163 1,119 0.163 11.96 0.147 0.268 FY16E 28.09 9.46 17.08 3.20 60.99 36.55
FY17E 2,643 1,228 0.179 1,228 1.179 9.71 0.161 0.304 FY17E 25.61 8.55 15.07 3.51 62.54 19.82
Figure 1: Summary of SOTP‐based valuation for VGI Business
%
Valuation Method
Value to VGI
Holding VGI’s existing business
(Bt)*
MACO
DCF (WACC 11%)
24.96
SOTP‐based
5.40
Consensus target price of Bt1.60
0.20
5.60
Source: KT ZMICO Research, Note: *not including shares reserved for VGI‐W1 Figure 2: VGI’s PER band and sensitivity of market prices based on PER at different standard deviation levels (X) 60 50
+2 S.D. +1 S.D. Avg.
40 30
-1 S.D.
20
-2 S.D.
Jul-15
Apr-15
May-15
Jan-15
Mar-15
Dec-14
Sep-14
Nov-14
Jul-14
Aug-14
Apr-14
Jun-14
Mar-14
Feb-14
Dec-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
Apr-13
Jun-13
Mar-13
Feb-13
Dec-12
Oct-12
0
Nov-12
10
FY16E +1.0SD +0.5SD Average ‐0.5SD ‐1.0SD ‐1.5SD ‐2.0SD ‐2.5SD
PER (x) 46.2 42.1 38.0 33.9 29.8 25.7 21.6 17.5
Implied market price (Bt) 7.39 6.74 6.08 5.42 4.77 4.11 3.46 2.80
Upside/Downside vs. current market price (%) 61.4 47.1 32.8 18.4 4.1 (10.2) (24.5) (38.9)
Source: Bloomberg, KT ZMICO Research Figure 3: 1QFY16 (Apr‐Jun 15) earnings review Profit and Loss (Btmn) Year‐end 31 Mar Revenue Gross profit SG&A EBITDA Interest expense Other income Income tax Other extra items Gn (Ls) from affiliates Net profit (loss) Normalized profit (loss) Reported EPS (Bt) Gross margin (%) EBITDA margin (%) Net margin (%) Current ratio (x) Interest coverage (x) Debt/equity (x) BVPS (Bt) ROE (%) Revenue structure BTS‐related Modern Trade Office building & others
1QFY15 762 421 (116) 336 (1) 16 (64) ‐ 1 257 257 0.075
4QFY15 616 361 (67) 335 (4) 8 (72) (215) 4 15 230 0.002
1QFY16 549 328 (93) 272 (4) 14 (50) 45 (1) 240 195 0.035
% YoY (28.0) (21.9) (20.1) (19.0) 242.7 (13.2) (22.2) ‐ (183.8) (6.9) (24.2) (53.4)
% QoQ (10.8) (9.1) 38.0 (18.6) (0.6) 80.5 (31.2) n.m. (131.0) 1,493.2 (15.2) 1,493.2
FY15 2,963 1,638 (419) 1,372 (10) 47 (272) (162) 15 838 999 0.122
FY16E 2,460 1,794 (443) 1,524 (10) 41 (280) ‐ 16 1,119 1,119 0.163
55.2 44.1 33.8 1.5 292.6 0.1 0.6 49.4
58.7 54.4 37.4 0.7 82.0 0.3 0.3 44.3 429 131 57
59.8 49.6 35.5 0.9 66.0 0.3 0.3 40.0
55.3 46.3 28.3 0.7 123.8 0.3 0.3 52.8
445 50 54
2.6 (82.6) 29.7
3.8 (61.7) (5.1)
72.9 61.9 45.5 0.6 135.1 0.3 0.3 61.0
434 286 42
% YoY (17.0) 9.5 5.6 11.0 1.5 (12.5) 3.0 (100.0) 10.0 33.6 12.0 33.6
Source: VGI, KT ZMICO Research REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 2 of 3
YTD (% of FY16E) 22.3 18.3 21.0 17.9 35.6 33.9 17.7 ‐ (7.6) 21.4 17.4 21.4
DISCLAIMER This document is produced using open sources believed to be reliable. However, their accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. The statements and opinions herein were formed after due and careful consideration for use as information for the purposes of investment. The opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. This document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. The use of any information contained in this document shall be at the sole discretion and risk of the user.
KT ZMICO RESEARCH – RECOMMENDATION DEFINITIONS STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS BUY: Expecting positive total returns of 15% or more over the next 12 months OUTPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to exceed market return over six months period because of specific catalysts UNDERPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to below market return over six months period because of specific catalysts SELL: Expecting negative total returns of 10% or more over the next 12 months
SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS OVERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to outperform the relevant primary market index by at least 10% over the next 12 months. NEUTRAL: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to perform in line with the relevant primary market index over the next 12 months. UNDERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to underperform the relevant primary market index by 10% over the next 12 months.
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 3 of 3
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