VGI Global Media - Global Alliance Partners
VGI Global Media Buy (FY16E TP Bt5.20)
Company Update
Close Bt4.00
Media & Publishing February 2, 2016
Earnings upgrade/Earnings downgrade/Overview unchanged
Waiting for further expansion Price Performance (%)
Maintain BUY Although the weak results are expected to continue for the next 1‐2 quarters, the recent increase of VGI’s share price owes to potential expansion, in our view. Based on our ongoing belief in the long‐term growth prospects for OOH media coupled with VGI’s expansion strategy, we maintain our BUY call for VGI with the SOTP‐based TP of Bt5.20. VGI’s affiliated company will have new media management in SBIA VGI revealed that its 20%‐owned affiliated company, Aero Media Ltd., will have the rights to manage 310 new LED screens at all gates at SBIA in addition to recently being granted the rights to manage media for 19 Lion Air airplanes, 6,200 trolleys, 12 buggy buses, and gas stations. VGI will transfer the rights to manage media for Air Asia airplanes to this company. In 2015, Aero Media reported revenue of around Bt200mn, which is likely to jump to Bt375mn in 2016E owing to new media expansion. With the net margin guidance at 20%, Aero will likely contribute net profit of around Bt15mn to VGI in FY17E. VGI has the option to increase its investment stake to 30% of the company.
Source: SET Smart
FY16
FY17
Consensus EPS (Bt)
0.128
0.141
KT ZMICO vs. consensus Share data
10.2%
5.7%
Reuters / Bloomberg
VGI.BK/VGI TB
Paid‐up Shares (m)
6,864.32
Par (Bt)
0.10
Market cap (Bt bn / US$ m) Foreign limit / actual (%)
27.00/771.00 49.00/6.83
52 week High / Low (Bt)
6.45/3.44
Avg. daily T/O (shares 000)
14,989.00
NVDR (%)
2.09
Estimated free float (%)
29.47
Beta
0.94
URL
www.vgi.co.th
CGR
Anti‐corruption
Level 3A (Established)
Raenoo Bhandasukdi Analyst no. 17989 [email protected] 66 (0) 2695‐5836
Online media cooperation with Rabbit card to be announced soon VGI plans to launch a new online media business in cooperation with the BTS’s Rabbit card. The project will be announced in the next couple months. In 2015, online media spending grew by 11% YoY, vs. the +4% growth of the media industry as a whole, owing to expansion of the internet and mobile phones. BTS aims to expand the Rabbit card to the card and internet businesses as well as enter microfinance (already cooperating with AEONT). Maintain earnings projections VGI may have to set aside a provision for a loss from MACO again in FY17E owing to the continued weakening of the media industry and the domestic economy. However, the provision will likely be lower by half from the Bt137mn provision already booked in 2QFY16 due to media package adjustments. In light of this, coupled with potential gain from new media expansion (selling agent of Artista Media Limited Partnership managing advertising screens at 219 condominiums currently with a target to gain Bt100mn in revenue for the three‐year contract along with the net profit contribution from Aero Media) and the expected improvement of the media industry in 2H16, we decide to maintain our earnings estimates in FY17E for VGI. Financials and Valuation FY Ended 31 Mar Revenues (Btmn) Net profit (Btmn) EPS (Bt) Norm. profit (Btmn) Norm. EPS (Bt) Norm. EPS growth (%) Dividend (Bt) BV (Bt) FY Ended 31 Mar PER (x) EV/EBITDA (x) P/BV (x) Dividend yield (%) ROE (%) Net gearing (%)
FY13 2,838 902 0.301 902 0.301 8.01 0.270 0.607 FY13 13.31 8.60 6.59 6.75 85.30 cash
FY14 3,149 1,146 0.334 1,146 0.334 11.08 0.320 0.569 FY14 11.98 7.88 7.03 8.00 60.71 cash
FY15 2,963 999 0.122 838 0.146 (56.38) 0.176 0.266 FY15 27.47 9.00 15.01 4.40 44.29 18.75
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 1 of 4
FY16E 2,191 970 0.141 885 0.129 (11.44) 0.116 0.262 FY16E 31.02 10.05 15.28 2.90 53.53 16.14
FY17E 2,378 1,023 0.149 1,023 0.149 15.64 0.134 0.292 FY17E 26.83 8.67 13.72 3.35 53.88 3.38
Figure 1: Summary of SOTP‐based valuation for VGI Business
% Holding
VGI
Valuation Method
MACO
24.96
SOTP‐based
Value to VGI (Bt)*
DCF (WACC 8%)
5.00
Consensus target price of Bt1.60
0.20
5.20
Source: KT ZMICO Research, Note: *not including shares reserved for VGI‐W1
Figure 2: VGI’s PER band and sensitivity of market prices based on PER at different standard deviation levels (X) 70 +2 S.D.
60 +1 S.D.
50 Avg. 40 30
-1 S.D. 20
-2 S.D.
Jan-16
Oct-15
Dec-15
Jun-15
Sep-15
Aug-15
Mar-15
May-15
Feb-15
Oct-14
Jan-15
Nov-14
Jul-14
Sep-14
Jun-14
Mar-14
May-14
Jan-14
Feb-14
Nov-13
Jul-13
Oct-13
Sep-13
Jun-13
Mar-13
May-13
Feb-13
Dec-12
Oct-12
0
Nov-12
10
FY16E +1.0SD +0.5SD Average ‐0.5SD ‐1.0SD ‐1.5SD ‐2.0SD ‐2.5SD
PER (x) 48.0 43.0 38.0 33.0 28.0 23.0 18.0 13.0
Implied market price (Bt) 6.77 6.06 5.36 4.65 3.95 3.24 2.54 1.83
Upside/Downside vs. current market price (%) 69.2 51.6 34.0 16.3 (1.3) (18.9) (36.6) (54.2)
Source: Bloomberg, KT ZMICO Research
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 2 of 4
Financial tables PROFIT & LOSS (Btm) Revenues Cost of sales and service Gross profit SG&A EBITDA Depreciation & amortization EBIT Interest expense Equity earnings Other income / exp. EBT Corporate tax Minority interests Net profit Reported EPS Fully diluted EPS Core net profit Core EPS Dividend (Bt) BALANCE SHEET (Btm) Cash and equivalents Inventories PP&E‐net Other assets Total assets ST debt & current portion Long‐term debt Total liabilities Minority interests Shareholder equity Total liab. & shareholder equity CASH FLOW (Btm) Net income Depreciation & amortization Change in working capital FX, non‐cash adjustment & others Cash flow from operations Capex (Invest)/Divest Others Cash flow from investing Debt financing (repayment) Equity financing Dividend payment Others Cash flow from financing Net change in cash Free cash flow FCF per share (Bt) PROFITABILITY Revenue growth (%) EBITDA growth (%) Core EPS growth (%) Gross margin (%) EBITDA margin (%) Operating margin (%) Net margin (%) Core profit margin (%) Effective tax rate (%) FINANCIAL QUALITY Total debt to capital employed (x) Net debt to equity (x) Interest coverage (x)
FY12 1,977 (1,295) 682 (282) 495 (95) 400 (1) 0 27 427 (148) (0) 278 0.28 0.28 278 0.28 0.40
FY13 2,838 (1,289) 1,548 (394) 1,250 (95) 1,155 (2) 0 34 1,187 (285) 0 902 0.301 0.301 902 0.301 0.270
FY14 3,149 (1,342) 1,807 (434) 1,459 (86) 1,374 (1) (1) 47 1,419 (273) 0 1,146 0.334 0.334 1,146 0.334 0.320
FY15 2,963 (1,325) 1,638 (419) 1,372 (153) 1,219 (10) 15 (115) 1,109 (272) 0 838 0.122 0.122 999 0.146 0.176
FY12 381 0 228 705 1,314 0 0 1,021 0 293 1,314
FY13 1,254 0 473 852 2,579 0 0 758 0 1,821 2,579
FY14 503 0 923 1,315 2,741 0 0 788 0 1,953 2,741
FY15 187 4 1,262 1,833 3,286 530 0 1,457 0 1,829 3,286
FY12 278 95 (47) 16 343 (69) 11 (59) (1) 0 (400) 0 (401) (117) 284 0.28
FY13 902 95 (437) 0 560 (321) 17 (304) 0 1,058 (440) 0 618 873 255 0.09
FY14 1,146 86 60 0 1,292 (570) (459) (1,029) 1 0 (1,014) 0 (1,013) (750) 262 0.08
FY15 838 153 79 0 1,070 (600) (354) (954) 189 344 (965) 0 (432) (316) 116 0.02
FY12 41.1 47.0 60.7 34.5 25.0 20.2 14.1 14.1 34.7
FY13 43.5 152.6 8.0 54.6 44.0 40.7 31.8 31.8 24.0
FY14 11.0 16.7 11.1 57.4 46.3 43.6 36.4 36.4 19.2
FY15 (5.9) (6.0) (56.4) 55.3 46.3 41.1 28.3 33.7 24.5
FY12 0.00 cash cash
FY13 0.00 cash cash
FY14 0.00 cash cash
FY15 0.22 cash cash
FY16E 2,191 (783) 1,407 (357) 1,222 (172) 1,050 (14) 26 123 1,185 (214) 0 970 0.141 0.141 885 0.129 0.116
FY17E 2,378 (806) 1,571 (364) 1,391 (184) 1,208 0 31 40 1,279 (256) 0 1,023 0.149 0.149 1,023 0.149 0.134
FY16E 240 4 1,337 1,724 3,305 530 0 1,507 0 1,797 3,304
FY17E 462 4 1,303 1,760 3,529 530 0 1,528 0 2,002 3,529
FY16E 970 172 181 0 1,324 (268) 0 (268) 0 0 (1,003) 0 (1,003) 53 1,056 0.15
FY17E 1,023 184 86 0 1,293 (150) 0 (150) 0 0 (921) 0 (921) 222 1,143 0.17
FY16E (26.1) (10.9) (11.5) 64.2 55.8 47.9 44.3 40.4 18.1
FY17E 8.5 13.8 15.6 66.1 58.5 50.8 43.0 43.0 20.0
FY16E 0.23 cash cash
FY17E 0.21 cash cash
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 3 of 4
Note: KT ZMICO is a partnership between KTB and ZMICO. An executive of KT ZMICO Securities is also a board member of BCP, BTC, CI, CPI, KBS, MAJOR, MK, PACE, PSL, SVH, VNG, ZMICO, SAWAD, TFG. A management member of KT ZMICO Securities is also a board member of BTC and NFC. KT ZMICO is a financial advisor for U, LOXLEY, SUTHA, ZMICO, MAKRO, CPALL, SAFARI, PACE, PLE, TPOLY, UWC. KT ZMICO is a co‐underwriter of TKN.
Anti‐corruption Progress Indicator
Level 1 (Committed) : Organization’s statement or board's resolution to work against corruption and to be in compliance with all relevant laws. Level 2 (Declared) : Public declaration statement to participate in Thailand's private sector Collective Action Coalition Against Corruption (CAC) or equivalent initiatives Level 3 (Established) : Public out preventive measures, risk assessment, communication and training for all employees, including consistent monitoring and review processes Level 4 (Certified) : Audit engagement by audit committee or auditors approved by the office of SEC, and receiving certification or assurance by independent external assurance providers (CAC etc.) Level 5 (Extended) : Extension of the anti‐corruption policy to business partners in the supply chain, and disclosure of any current investigations, prosecutions or closed cases Insufficient or not clearly defined policy Data not available / no policy
DISCLAIMER This document is produced using open sources believed to be reliable. However, their accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. The statements and opinions herein were formed after due and careful consideration for use as information for the purposes of investment. The opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. This document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. The use of any information contained in this document shall be at the sole discretion and risk of the user.
KT ZMICO RESEARCH – RECOMMENDATION DEFINITIONS STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS BUY: Expecting positive total returns of 15% or more over the next 12 months OUTPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to exceed market returns over a six‐month period due to specific catalysts UNDERPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to be below market returns over a six‐month period due to specific catalysts SELL: Expecting negative total returns of 10% or more over the next 12 months
SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS OVERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to outperform the relevant primary market index by at least 10% over the next 12 months. NEUTRAL: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to perform in line with the relevant primary market index over the next 12 months. UNDERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to underperform the relevant primary market index by 10% over the next 12 months.
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 4 of 4
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KT•ZMICO Securities Company Limited
st
8 , 15 -17 , 19 , 21 Floor, Liberty Square Bldg., 287 Silom Road, Bangrak, Bangkok 10500 Telephone: (66-2) 695-5000
Phaholyothin Branch
rd
Fax. (66-2) 631-1709
Ploenchit Branch
th
nd
2
Sindhorn Branch
3 Floor, Shinnawatra Tower II,
8 Floor, Ton Son Tower,
1291/1 Phaholyothin Road,
900 Ploenchit Road, Lumpini,
Floor, Sindhorn Tower 1, 130-132 Wireless Road, Lumpini,
Phayathai, Bangkok 10400
Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330
Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330
Telephone: (66-2) 686-1500
Telephone: (66-2) 626-6000
Telephone: (66-2) 627-3550
Fax. (66-2) 686-1666
Fax. (66-2) 626-6111
Fax. (66-2) 627-3582, 627-3600
Nakhon Pathom Branch 1156 Petchakasem Road, Sanamchan Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang , Nakhon Pathom Province 73000 Telephone: (034) 271300 Fax: (034) 271300 #100
Chachoengsao Branch
Viphavadee Branch
Phitsanulok Branch
G Floor, Lao Peng Nguan 1 Bldg.,
Krung Thai Bank, Singhawat Branch
333 Soi Cheypuand, Viphavadee-Rangsit Road,
114 Singhawat Road,
Ladyao, Jatujak, Bangkok 10900
Muang, Phitsanulok 65000
Telephone: (66-2) 618-8500
Telephone: 083-490-2873
Fax. (66-2) 618-8569
th
Chonburi Branch
Pattaya Branch
108/34-36 Mahajakkrapad Road,
4 Floor, Forum Plaza Bldg.,
382/6-8 Moo 9, T. NongPrue,
T.Namuang, A.Muang,
870/52 Sukhumvit Road, T. Bangplasoy,
A. Banglamung, Cholburi 20260
Chachoengsao 24000
A. Muang, Cholburi 20000
Telephone: (038) 362-420-9
Telephone: (038) 813-088
Telephone: (038) 287-635
Fax. (038) 362-430
Fax. (038) 813-099
Fax. (038) 287-637
Khon Kaen Branch
5th Floor, Charoen Thani Princess Hotel,
Hat Yai Branch
Sriworajak Building Branch
200/301 Juldis Hatyai Plaza Floor 3,
1st – 2nd Floor, Sriworajak Building, 222
260 Srichan Road, T. Naimuang,
Niphat-Uthit 3 Rd,
Luang Road, Pomprab,
A. Muang, Khon Kaen 40000
Hatyai Songkhla 90110
Bankgok 10100
Telephone: (043) 389-171-193
Telephone: (074) 355-530-3
Telephone: (02) 689-3100
Fax. (043) 389-209
Fax: (074) 355-534
Fax. (02) 689-3199
Central World Branch
Chiang Mai Branch
Phuket Branch
999/9 The Offices at Central World,
422/49 Changklan Road, Changklan
22/61-63, Luang Por Wat Chalong Road,
16th Fl., Rama 1 Rd, Pathumwan,
Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang,
Talat Yai, Mueang Phuket,
Bangkok 10330
Chiang Mai 50100
Phuket 83000
Telephone: (66-2) 673-5000,
Telephone: (053) 270-072
Tel. (076) 222-811,(076) 222-683
(66-2) 264-5888 Fax. (66-2) 264-5899
Fax: (053) 272-618
Fax. (076) 222-861
Pak Chong Branch
Cyber Branch @ North Nana
173 175, Mittapap Road,
Krung Thai Bank PCL, 2 Floor, North Nana Branch 35 Sukhumvit Rd.,Klong Toey Nua Subdistrict , Wattana District, Bangkok 10110 Telephone: 083-490-2871
Nong Sarai, Pak Chong, Nakhon Ratchasima 30130 Tel. (044) 279-511 Fax. (044) 279-574
Nakhon Ratchasima Branch
Bangkhae Branch
6th Floor The Mall Group Building Bangkhae 275 Moo 1 Petchkasem Road, North Bangkhae, Bangkhae, Bangkok 10160 Tel. (66-2) 454-9979 Fax. (66-2) 454-9970
624/9 Changphuek Road, . Naimaung, A.Maung, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000 Telephone: (044) 247222 Fax: (044) 247171 Information herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its completeness and accuracy are not guaranteed. All opinions expressed constitute our views on that date and are not intended as an offer or solicitation to sell or buy any securities. Investors should exercise care when making a decision to invest in securities. No one may modify or distribute any part of this report unless written permission is first received from Seamico Securities Plc. If any modifications are made, quotes or references taken from the report and the report date must be clearly mentioned and must not cause misunderstanding or damage to the company.
Company Update
Close Bt4.00
Media & Publishing February 2, 2016
Earnings upgrade/Earnings downgrade/Overview unchanged
Waiting for further expansion Price Performance (%)
Maintain BUY Although the weak results are expected to continue for the next 1‐2 quarters, the recent increase of VGI’s share price owes to potential expansion, in our view. Based on our ongoing belief in the long‐term growth prospects for OOH media coupled with VGI’s expansion strategy, we maintain our BUY call for VGI with the SOTP‐based TP of Bt5.20. VGI’s affiliated company will have new media management in SBIA VGI revealed that its 20%‐owned affiliated company, Aero Media Ltd., will have the rights to manage 310 new LED screens at all gates at SBIA in addition to recently being granted the rights to manage media for 19 Lion Air airplanes, 6,200 trolleys, 12 buggy buses, and gas stations. VGI will transfer the rights to manage media for Air Asia airplanes to this company. In 2015, Aero Media reported revenue of around Bt200mn, which is likely to jump to Bt375mn in 2016E owing to new media expansion. With the net margin guidance at 20%, Aero will likely contribute net profit of around Bt15mn to VGI in FY17E. VGI has the option to increase its investment stake to 30% of the company.
Source: SET Smart
FY16
FY17
Consensus EPS (Bt)
0.128
0.141
KT ZMICO vs. consensus Share data
10.2%
5.7%
Reuters / Bloomberg
VGI.BK/VGI TB
Paid‐up Shares (m)
6,864.32
Par (Bt)
0.10
Market cap (Bt bn / US$ m) Foreign limit / actual (%)
27.00/771.00 49.00/6.83
52 week High / Low (Bt)
6.45/3.44
Avg. daily T/O (shares 000)
14,989.00
NVDR (%)
2.09
Estimated free float (%)
29.47
Beta
0.94
URL
www.vgi.co.th
CGR
Anti‐corruption
Level 3A (Established)
Raenoo Bhandasukdi Analyst no. 17989 [email protected] 66 (0) 2695‐5836
Online media cooperation with Rabbit card to be announced soon VGI plans to launch a new online media business in cooperation with the BTS’s Rabbit card. The project will be announced in the next couple months. In 2015, online media spending grew by 11% YoY, vs. the +4% growth of the media industry as a whole, owing to expansion of the internet and mobile phones. BTS aims to expand the Rabbit card to the card and internet businesses as well as enter microfinance (already cooperating with AEONT). Maintain earnings projections VGI may have to set aside a provision for a loss from MACO again in FY17E owing to the continued weakening of the media industry and the domestic economy. However, the provision will likely be lower by half from the Bt137mn provision already booked in 2QFY16 due to media package adjustments. In light of this, coupled with potential gain from new media expansion (selling agent of Artista Media Limited Partnership managing advertising screens at 219 condominiums currently with a target to gain Bt100mn in revenue for the three‐year contract along with the net profit contribution from Aero Media) and the expected improvement of the media industry in 2H16, we decide to maintain our earnings estimates in FY17E for VGI. Financials and Valuation FY Ended 31 Mar Revenues (Btmn) Net profit (Btmn) EPS (Bt) Norm. profit (Btmn) Norm. EPS (Bt) Norm. EPS growth (%) Dividend (Bt) BV (Bt) FY Ended 31 Mar PER (x) EV/EBITDA (x) P/BV (x) Dividend yield (%) ROE (%) Net gearing (%)
FY13 2,838 902 0.301 902 0.301 8.01 0.270 0.607 FY13 13.31 8.60 6.59 6.75 85.30 cash
FY14 3,149 1,146 0.334 1,146 0.334 11.08 0.320 0.569 FY14 11.98 7.88 7.03 8.00 60.71 cash
FY15 2,963 999 0.122 838 0.146 (56.38) 0.176 0.266 FY15 27.47 9.00 15.01 4.40 44.29 18.75
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 1 of 4
FY16E 2,191 970 0.141 885 0.129 (11.44) 0.116 0.262 FY16E 31.02 10.05 15.28 2.90 53.53 16.14
FY17E 2,378 1,023 0.149 1,023 0.149 15.64 0.134 0.292 FY17E 26.83 8.67 13.72 3.35 53.88 3.38
Figure 1: Summary of SOTP‐based valuation for VGI Business
% Holding
VGI
Valuation Method
MACO
24.96
SOTP‐based
Value to VGI (Bt)*
DCF (WACC 8%)
5.00
Consensus target price of Bt1.60
0.20
5.20
Source: KT ZMICO Research, Note: *not including shares reserved for VGI‐W1
Figure 2: VGI’s PER band and sensitivity of market prices based on PER at different standard deviation levels (X) 70 +2 S.D.
60 +1 S.D.
50 Avg. 40 30
-1 S.D. 20
-2 S.D.
Jan-16
Oct-15
Dec-15
Jun-15
Sep-15
Aug-15
Mar-15
May-15
Feb-15
Oct-14
Jan-15
Nov-14
Jul-14
Sep-14
Jun-14
Mar-14
May-14
Jan-14
Feb-14
Nov-13
Jul-13
Oct-13
Sep-13
Jun-13
Mar-13
May-13
Feb-13
Dec-12
Oct-12
0
Nov-12
10
FY16E +1.0SD +0.5SD Average ‐0.5SD ‐1.0SD ‐1.5SD ‐2.0SD ‐2.5SD
PER (x) 48.0 43.0 38.0 33.0 28.0 23.0 18.0 13.0
Implied market price (Bt) 6.77 6.06 5.36 4.65 3.95 3.24 2.54 1.83
Upside/Downside vs. current market price (%) 69.2 51.6 34.0 16.3 (1.3) (18.9) (36.6) (54.2)
Source: Bloomberg, KT ZMICO Research
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 2 of 4
Financial tables PROFIT & LOSS (Btm) Revenues Cost of sales and service Gross profit SG&A EBITDA Depreciation & amortization EBIT Interest expense Equity earnings Other income / exp. EBT Corporate tax Minority interests Net profit Reported EPS Fully diluted EPS Core net profit Core EPS Dividend (Bt) BALANCE SHEET (Btm) Cash and equivalents Inventories PP&E‐net Other assets Total assets ST debt & current portion Long‐term debt Total liabilities Minority interests Shareholder equity Total liab. & shareholder equity CASH FLOW (Btm) Net income Depreciation & amortization Change in working capital FX, non‐cash adjustment & others Cash flow from operations Capex (Invest)/Divest Others Cash flow from investing Debt financing (repayment) Equity financing Dividend payment Others Cash flow from financing Net change in cash Free cash flow FCF per share (Bt) PROFITABILITY Revenue growth (%) EBITDA growth (%) Core EPS growth (%) Gross margin (%) EBITDA margin (%) Operating margin (%) Net margin (%) Core profit margin (%) Effective tax rate (%) FINANCIAL QUALITY Total debt to capital employed (x) Net debt to equity (x) Interest coverage (x)
FY12 1,977 (1,295) 682 (282) 495 (95) 400 (1) 0 27 427 (148) (0) 278 0.28 0.28 278 0.28 0.40
FY13 2,838 (1,289) 1,548 (394) 1,250 (95) 1,155 (2) 0 34 1,187 (285) 0 902 0.301 0.301 902 0.301 0.270
FY14 3,149 (1,342) 1,807 (434) 1,459 (86) 1,374 (1) (1) 47 1,419 (273) 0 1,146 0.334 0.334 1,146 0.334 0.320
FY15 2,963 (1,325) 1,638 (419) 1,372 (153) 1,219 (10) 15 (115) 1,109 (272) 0 838 0.122 0.122 999 0.146 0.176
FY12 381 0 228 705 1,314 0 0 1,021 0 293 1,314
FY13 1,254 0 473 852 2,579 0 0 758 0 1,821 2,579
FY14 503 0 923 1,315 2,741 0 0 788 0 1,953 2,741
FY15 187 4 1,262 1,833 3,286 530 0 1,457 0 1,829 3,286
FY12 278 95 (47) 16 343 (69) 11 (59) (1) 0 (400) 0 (401) (117) 284 0.28
FY13 902 95 (437) 0 560 (321) 17 (304) 0 1,058 (440) 0 618 873 255 0.09
FY14 1,146 86 60 0 1,292 (570) (459) (1,029) 1 0 (1,014) 0 (1,013) (750) 262 0.08
FY15 838 153 79 0 1,070 (600) (354) (954) 189 344 (965) 0 (432) (316) 116 0.02
FY12 41.1 47.0 60.7 34.5 25.0 20.2 14.1 14.1 34.7
FY13 43.5 152.6 8.0 54.6 44.0 40.7 31.8 31.8 24.0
FY14 11.0 16.7 11.1 57.4 46.3 43.6 36.4 36.4 19.2
FY15 (5.9) (6.0) (56.4) 55.3 46.3 41.1 28.3 33.7 24.5
FY12 0.00 cash cash
FY13 0.00 cash cash
FY14 0.00 cash cash
FY15 0.22 cash cash
FY16E 2,191 (783) 1,407 (357) 1,222 (172) 1,050 (14) 26 123 1,185 (214) 0 970 0.141 0.141 885 0.129 0.116
FY17E 2,378 (806) 1,571 (364) 1,391 (184) 1,208 0 31 40 1,279 (256) 0 1,023 0.149 0.149 1,023 0.149 0.134
FY16E 240 4 1,337 1,724 3,305 530 0 1,507 0 1,797 3,304
FY17E 462 4 1,303 1,760 3,529 530 0 1,528 0 2,002 3,529
FY16E 970 172 181 0 1,324 (268) 0 (268) 0 0 (1,003) 0 (1,003) 53 1,056 0.15
FY17E 1,023 184 86 0 1,293 (150) 0 (150) 0 0 (921) 0 (921) 222 1,143 0.17
FY16E (26.1) (10.9) (11.5) 64.2 55.8 47.9 44.3 40.4 18.1
FY17E 8.5 13.8 15.6 66.1 58.5 50.8 43.0 43.0 20.0
FY16E 0.23 cash cash
FY17E 0.21 cash cash
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 3 of 4
Note: KT ZMICO is a partnership between KTB and ZMICO. An executive of KT ZMICO Securities is also a board member of BCP, BTC, CI, CPI, KBS, MAJOR, MK, PACE, PSL, SVH, VNG, ZMICO, SAWAD, TFG. A management member of KT ZMICO Securities is also a board member of BTC and NFC. KT ZMICO is a financial advisor for U, LOXLEY, SUTHA, ZMICO, MAKRO, CPALL, SAFARI, PACE, PLE, TPOLY, UWC. KT ZMICO is a co‐underwriter of TKN.
Anti‐corruption Progress Indicator
Level 1 (Committed) : Organization’s statement or board's resolution to work against corruption and to be in compliance with all relevant laws. Level 2 (Declared) : Public declaration statement to participate in Thailand's private sector Collective Action Coalition Against Corruption (CAC) or equivalent initiatives Level 3 (Established) : Public out preventive measures, risk assessment, communication and training for all employees, including consistent monitoring and review processes Level 4 (Certified) : Audit engagement by audit committee or auditors approved by the office of SEC, and receiving certification or assurance by independent external assurance providers (CAC etc.) Level 5 (Extended) : Extension of the anti‐corruption policy to business partners in the supply chain, and disclosure of any current investigations, prosecutions or closed cases Insufficient or not clearly defined policy Data not available / no policy
DISCLAIMER This document is produced using open sources believed to be reliable. However, their accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. The statements and opinions herein were formed after due and careful consideration for use as information for the purposes of investment. The opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. This document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. The use of any information contained in this document shall be at the sole discretion and risk of the user.
KT ZMICO RESEARCH – RECOMMENDATION DEFINITIONS STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS BUY: Expecting positive total returns of 15% or more over the next 12 months OUTPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to exceed market returns over a six‐month period due to specific catalysts UNDERPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to be below market returns over a six‐month period due to specific catalysts SELL: Expecting negative total returns of 10% or more over the next 12 months
SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS OVERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to outperform the relevant primary market index by at least 10% over the next 12 months. NEUTRAL: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to perform in line with the relevant primary market index over the next 12 months. UNDERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to underperform the relevant primary market index by 10% over the next 12 months.
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 4 of 4
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KT•ZMICO Securities Company Limited
st
8 , 15 -17 , 19 , 21 Floor, Liberty Square Bldg., 287 Silom Road, Bangrak, Bangkok 10500 Telephone: (66-2) 695-5000
Phaholyothin Branch
rd
Fax. (66-2) 631-1709
Ploenchit Branch
th
nd
2
Sindhorn Branch
3 Floor, Shinnawatra Tower II,
8 Floor, Ton Son Tower,
1291/1 Phaholyothin Road,
900 Ploenchit Road, Lumpini,
Floor, Sindhorn Tower 1, 130-132 Wireless Road, Lumpini,
Phayathai, Bangkok 10400
Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330
Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330
Telephone: (66-2) 686-1500
Telephone: (66-2) 626-6000
Telephone: (66-2) 627-3550
Fax. (66-2) 686-1666
Fax. (66-2) 626-6111
Fax. (66-2) 627-3582, 627-3600
Nakhon Pathom Branch 1156 Petchakasem Road, Sanamchan Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang , Nakhon Pathom Province 73000 Telephone: (034) 271300 Fax: (034) 271300 #100
Chachoengsao Branch
Viphavadee Branch
Phitsanulok Branch
G Floor, Lao Peng Nguan 1 Bldg.,
Krung Thai Bank, Singhawat Branch
333 Soi Cheypuand, Viphavadee-Rangsit Road,
114 Singhawat Road,
Ladyao, Jatujak, Bangkok 10900
Muang, Phitsanulok 65000
Telephone: (66-2) 618-8500
Telephone: 083-490-2873
Fax. (66-2) 618-8569
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Chonburi Branch
Pattaya Branch
108/34-36 Mahajakkrapad Road,
4 Floor, Forum Plaza Bldg.,
382/6-8 Moo 9, T. NongPrue,
T.Namuang, A.Muang,
870/52 Sukhumvit Road, T. Bangplasoy,
A. Banglamung, Cholburi 20260
Chachoengsao 24000
A. Muang, Cholburi 20000
Telephone: (038) 362-420-9
Telephone: (038) 813-088
Telephone: (038) 287-635
Fax. (038) 362-430
Fax. (038) 813-099
Fax. (038) 287-637
Khon Kaen Branch
5th Floor, Charoen Thani Princess Hotel,
Hat Yai Branch
Sriworajak Building Branch
200/301 Juldis Hatyai Plaza Floor 3,
1st – 2nd Floor, Sriworajak Building, 222
260 Srichan Road, T. Naimuang,
Niphat-Uthit 3 Rd,
Luang Road, Pomprab,
A. Muang, Khon Kaen 40000
Hatyai Songkhla 90110
Bankgok 10100
Telephone: (043) 389-171-193
Telephone: (074) 355-530-3
Telephone: (02) 689-3100
Fax. (043) 389-209
Fax: (074) 355-534
Fax. (02) 689-3199
Central World Branch
Chiang Mai Branch
Phuket Branch
999/9 The Offices at Central World,
422/49 Changklan Road, Changklan
22/61-63, Luang Por Wat Chalong Road,
16th Fl., Rama 1 Rd, Pathumwan,
Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang,
Talat Yai, Mueang Phuket,
Bangkok 10330
Chiang Mai 50100
Phuket 83000
Telephone: (66-2) 673-5000,
Telephone: (053) 270-072
Tel. (076) 222-811,(076) 222-683
(66-2) 264-5888 Fax. (66-2) 264-5899
Fax: (053) 272-618
Fax. (076) 222-861
Pak Chong Branch
Cyber Branch @ North Nana
173 175, Mittapap Road,
Krung Thai Bank PCL, 2 Floor, North Nana Branch 35 Sukhumvit Rd.,Klong Toey Nua Subdistrict , Wattana District, Bangkok 10110 Telephone: 083-490-2871
Nong Sarai, Pak Chong, Nakhon Ratchasima 30130 Tel. (044) 279-511 Fax. (044) 279-574
Nakhon Ratchasima Branch
Bangkhae Branch
6th Floor The Mall Group Building Bangkhae 275 Moo 1 Petchkasem Road, North Bangkhae, Bangkhae, Bangkok 10160 Tel. (66-2) 454-9979 Fax. (66-2) 454-9970
624/9 Changphuek Road, . Naimaung, A.Maung, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000 Telephone: (044) 247222 Fax: (044) 247171 Information herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its completeness and accuracy are not guaranteed. All opinions expressed constitute our views on that date and are not intended as an offer or solicitation to sell or buy any securities. Investors should exercise care when making a decision to invest in securities. No one may modify or distribute any part of this report unless written permission is first received from Seamico Securities Plc. If any modifications are made, quotes or references taken from the report and the report date must be clearly mentioned and must not cause misunderstanding or damage to the company.
