Water Situation Report - Amazon Simple Storage Service (S3)
Monthly water situation report East Anglia Summary – May 2017 In contrast to the previous 10 months May was wetter than average. Soil moisture deficits have returned to normal but groundwater continued to fall with most sites classified as below normal. Groundwater fed rivers are mainly classified as below normal but in runoff dominated catchments flows have returned to normal. Reservoirs are near their normal operating curves.
Rainfall After a dry start to the month a series of bands of rain during the middle of the month meant that May was wetter than the long term average in East Anglia. The area received an average of 55mm of rainfall, 114% of the long term average for May. The wettest part of the area was South Essex with 68mm, 159% of the long term average and the driest was North Norfolk with 50mm, 101% of the long term average.
Soil Moisture Deficit/Recharge In response to the wet May the soil moisture deficit has returned to normal for the time of year with an average value of 64mm in the area.
River Flows Despite the wet weather flows continued to fall at most sites with only the more runoff dominated sites showing an increase. Of the 17 sites reported on 5 are classified as normal, mainly in the clay catchments, 11 are classified as below normal, these are in the groundwater dominated catchments and the River Cam at Dernford is classified as exceptionally low.
Groundwater Levels Groundwater levels have continued to fall at all sites but in response to recent rainfall some sites are showing a shallower decline. Of the 16 sites used in this month’s report 5 are classified as normal, 9 below normal and the remaining 2 are classified as notably low.
Reservoir Storage/Water Resource Zone Stocks Reservoir stocks are near their normal operating curves.
Forward Look Probabilistic ensemble projections for river flows at key sites September 2017: There is an increased probability of flows being below the normal range in most of the chalk catchments this September. December 2017: There is an increased probability of flows being below the normal range at most sites in December. Probabilistic ensemble projections for groundwater levels in key aquifers September 2017: In the south of the area there is a greatly increased probability of Therfield Rectory and Redlands being notably low. In the rest of the area the model is forecasting levels on the boundary between normal and below normal for most rainfall scenarios. March 2018: The long range nature of these projections mean the models are currently showing a spread of results, however there is a tendency for the sights to the south to show an increased probability of levels below the normal range.
Author:
Hydrology & Operations
Contact details: 03708506506
All data are provisional and may be subject to revision. The views expressed in this document are not necessarily those of the Environment Agency. Its officers, servants or agents accept no liability for any loss or damage arising from the interpretation or use of the information, or reliance upon views contained herein.
© Environment Agency 2016
Rainfall
May 2017
© Environment Agency 2017
200%
200%
150%
150%
100%
100%
50%
50%
0%
0%
May-17
May-17
May-17
May-17
0%
Jun-16
Jul-16
Aug-16
Sep-16
Oct-16
Nov-16
Dec-16
Jan-17
Feb-17
Mar-17
Apr-17
May-17
Jun-16
Jul-16
Aug-16
Sep-16
Oct-16
Nov-16
Dec-16
Jan-17
Feb-17
Mar-17
0%
Feb-17
50%
Jan-17
50%
Dec-16
100%
Nov-16
100%
Oct-16
150%
Sep-16
150%
Aug-16
200%
Jul-16
Jun-16
May-17
Apr-17
Mar-17
Feb-17
Jan-17
Dec-16
Nov-16
Oct-16
Sep-16
Aug-16
Jul-16
Jun-16
200%
Mar-17
Apr-17
0%
Mar-17
0%
Feb-17
50%
Jan-17
50%
Dec-16
100%
Nov-16
100%
Oct-16
150%
Sep-16
150%
Aug-16
200%
Jul-16
Jun-16
May-17
Apr-17
Mar-17
Feb-17
Jan-17
Dec-16
Nov-16
Oct-16
Sep-16
Aug-16
Jul-16
Jun-16
200%
Mar-17
0%
Feb-17
0%
Jan-17
50%
Dec-16
50%
Nov-16
100%
Oct-16
100%
Sep-16
150%
Aug-16
150%
Jul-16
Jun-16
May-17
Apr-17
Mar-17
Feb-17
Jan-17
Dec-16
Nov-16
200%
Apr-17
1-Month Period for North Norfolk 250% 1-Month Period for Little Ouse and Lark 250%
Oct-16
Sep-16
Aug-16
Jul-16
Jun-16
200%
Apr-17
1-Month Period for NW Norfolk and Wissey 250% 1-Month Period for Cam 250%
Below average rainfall Above average rainfall
Apr-17
1-Month Period for Central Area Fenland 250% 1-Month Period for Lower Bedford Ouse 250%
1-Month Period for Upper Bedford Ouse 250%
1-Month Period for East Anglia 250%
© Environment Agency 2017
Above average rainfall
Below average rainfall
1-Month Period for Broadland Rivers
250%
200%
200%
150%
150%
100%
100%
50%
50%
0%
0%
May-17
Jan-17
Dec-16
Nov-16
Oct-16
Sep-16
Aug-16
Jul-16
Jun-16
May-17
Apr-17
Mar-17
Feb-17
Jan-17
Dec-16
Nov-16
Oct-16
Sep-16
Aug-16
Jul-16
Jun-16
May-17
0% Apr-17
0%
Apr-17
50%
Mar-17
50%
Mar-17
100%
Feb-17
100%
Feb-17
150%
Jan-17
150%
Dec-16
200%
Nov-16
1-Month Period for South Essex
250%
200%
Oct-16
Sep-16
Aug-16
Jul-16
Jun-16
May-17
Apr-17
Mar-17
Feb-17
Jan-17
Dec-16
Nov-16
Oct-16
Sep-16
Aug-16
Jul-16
Jun-16
1-Month Period for North Essex
250%
1-Month Period for East Suffolk
250%
Soil Moisture Deficit
© Environment Agency 2017
Data based on MORECS dataset (Met Office © Crown Copyright)
───2015-16 Exceptionally high Below normal
─ ─ ─2014-15 Notably high Notably low
Above normal Exceptionally low
Normal ─── Latest data
East Anglia Ranking derived from data for the period Jan-1961 to Dec-2012 0 20
SMD (mm)
40 60 80
100 120 140 Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
River Flow
Apr May Jun
Jul
May 2017
© Environment Agency 2017
Exceptionally high Below normal
Notably high Notably low
Above normal Exceptionally low
Normal ─── Latest data
Cappenham, TOVE Ranking derived from data for the period Feb-1962 to Dec-2012 6.0
Flow (cumecs)
5.0 4.0
3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 Aug-16
Oct-16
Dec-16
Feb-17
Apr-17
Jun-17
Willen, OUZEL
Roxton, OUSE (AN)
Ranking derived from data for the period Jan-1962 to Dec-2012
Ranking derived from data for the period Oct-1972 to Dec-2012
16
50
12
Flow (cumecs)
Flow (cumecs)
14
10 8 6
40 30 20
4 10 2 Oct-16
Dec-16
Feb-17
Apr-17
0 Aug-16
Jun-17
Oct-16
Dec-16
Feb-17
Apr-17
Jun-17
Blunham, IVEL
Offord(Gross Flows), OUSE (AN)
Ranking derived from data for the period Aug-1959 to Dec-2012
Ranking derived from data for the period Jan-1970 to Dec-2012
12
120
10
100
Flow (cumecs)
Flow (cumecs)
0 Aug-16
8
6 4 2 0 Aug-16
80
60 40 20
Oct-16
Dec-16
Feb-17
Apr-17
Jun-17
0 Aug-16
Oct-16
Dec-16
Feb-17
Apr-17
Jun-17
© Environment Agency 2017
Notably high Notably low
Above normal Exceptionally low
Normal ─── Latest data
Dernford, CAM (AN)
Temple, LARK
Ranking derived from data for the period Feb-1949 to Dec-2012
Ranking derived from data for the period Nov-1960 to Dec-2012
5.0
5.0
4.5
4.5
4.0
4.0
3.5
3.5
Flow (cumecs)
Flow (cumecs)
Exceptionally high Below normal
3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5
3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5
1.0
1.0
0.5
0.5
0.0 Aug-16
Oct-16
Dec-16
Feb-17
Apr-17
0.0 Aug-16
Jun-17
Oct-16
Dec-16
Feb-17
Apr-17
Jun-17
Abbey Heath, LITTLE OUSE
Northwold Total, WISSEY
Ranking derived from data for the period Jun-1968 to Dec-2012
Ranking derived from data for the period Jul-1983 to Dec-2012 8
16 7
12
Flow (cumecs)
Flow (cumecs)
14
10 8 6
6
5 4 3
4
2
2
1
0 Aug-16
Oct-16
Dec-16
Feb-17
Apr-17
0 Aug-16
Jun-17
Oct-16
Dec-16
Feb-17
Apr-17
Jun-17
Denver Ely Ouse, OUSE (AN)
Marham, NAR
Ranking derived from data for the period Nov-1971 to Dec-2012
Ranking derived from data for the period Apr-1982 to Dec-2012 3.0 2.5
40
Flow (cumecs)
Flow (cumecs)
50
30 20 10 0 Aug-16
2.0
1.5 1.0 0.5
Oct-16
Dec-16
Feb-17
Apr-17
0.0 Aug-16
Jun-17
Oct-16
Dec-16
Feb-17
Apr-17
Jun-17
Heacham, HEACHAM
Ingworth, BURE
Ranking derived from data for the period Nov-1965 to Dec-2012
Ranking derived from data for the period Jun-1959 to Dec-2012
1.0
3.0
0.9 2.5
0.7
Flow (cumecs)
Flow (cumecs)
0.8
0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2
2.0
1.5 1.0 0.5
0.1 0.0 Aug-16
Oct-16
Dec-16
Feb-17
Apr-17
Jun-17
0.0 Aug-16
Oct-16
Dec-16
Feb-17
Apr-17
Jun-17
© Environment Agency 2017
Exceptionally high Below normal
Notably high Notably low
Above normal Exceptionally low
Normal ─── Latest data
Swanton Morley Total Flow, WENSUM
Needham Weir Total, WAVENEY LOWER
Ranking derived from data for the period Oct-1969 to Dec-2012
Ranking derived from data for the period Dec-1963 to Dec-2012
10
12
9
10
7
Flow (cumecs)
Flow (cumecs)
8
6 5 4 3 2
Oct-16
Dec-16
Feb-17
Apr-17
4
0 Aug-16
Jun-17
Oct-16
Dec-16
Feb-17
Apr-17
Jun-17
Lexden, COLNE (AN)
Springfield, CHELMER
Ranking derived from data for the period Oct-1959 to Dec-2012
Ranking derived from data for the period Nov-1965 to Dec-2012
7
6
6
5
5
Flow (cumecs)
Flow (cumecs)
6
2
1 0 Aug-16
8
4
3 2
3 2 1
1 0 Aug-16
4
Oct-16
Dec-16
Feb-17
Apr-17
Jun-17
0 Aug-16
Oct-16
Dec-16
Feb-17
Apr-17
Jun-17
© Environment Agency 2017
Groundwater Levels
Notably high Notably low
Above normal Exceptionally low
Normal ─── Latest data
FRINGFORD - GREAT OOLITE
BIGGLESWADE
Ranking derived from data for the period Sep-1980 to Dec-2012
Ranking derived from data for the period Mar-1968 to Dec-2012
99
28.0
98
27.5
97 96 95
Level (mAOD)
Level (mAOD)
Exceptionally high Below normal
May 2017
27.0 26.5 26.0
94
25.5
93 Aug-14 Dec-14 Apr-15 Aug-15 Dec-15 Apr-16 Aug-16 Dec-16 Apr-17
25.0 Aug-14 Dec-14 Apr-15 Aug-15 Dec-15 Apr-16 Aug-16 Dec-16 Apr-17
© Environment Agency 2017
Exceptionally high Below normal
Notably high Notably low
Above normal Exceptionally low
Normal ─── Latest data
THERFIELD RECTORY
REDLANDS HALL
Ranking derived from data for the period Jan-1883 to Dec-2012
Ranking derived from data for the period Aug-1963 to Dec-2012
96 52
Level (mAOD)
86 81
47
42
76
37
71 Aug-14 Dec-14 Apr-15 Aug-15 Dec-15 Apr-16 Aug-16 Dec-16 Apr-17
32 Aug-14 Dec-14 Apr-15 Aug-15 Dec-15 Apr-16 Aug-16 Dec-16 Apr-17
LINTON
GOG MAGOG
Ranking derived from data for the period Jan-1980 to Dec-2012
Ranking derived from data for the period Jan-1980 to Dec-2012
31
18
30
17
29
Level (mAOD)
Level (mAOD)
Level (mAOD)
91
28 27
26
16 15 14
25
13
24 Aug-14 Dec-14 Apr-15 Aug-15 Dec-15 Apr-16 Aug-16 Dec-16 Apr-17
12 Aug-14 Dec-14 Apr-15 Aug-15 Dec-15 Apr-16 Aug-16 Dec-16 Apr-17
BURY ST EDMUNDS
NEWMARKET
Ranking derived from data for the period May-1983 to Dec-2012
Ranking derived from data for the period Feb-1983 to Dec-2012
33
17 16
31
Level (mAOD)
Level (mAOD)
32
30 29 28 27
15 14 13
26
25 Aug-14 Dec-14 Apr-15 Aug-15 Dec-15 Apr-16 Aug-16 Dec-16 Apr-17
12 Aug-14 Dec-14 Apr-15 Aug-15 Dec-15 Apr-16 Aug-16 Dec-16 Apr-17
KENNINGHALL
BRECKLAND
Ranking derived from data for the period Aug-1973 to Dec-2012
Ranking derived from data for the period Jan-1971 to Dec-2012
33
29
32
28
30 29 28 27 26
Level (mAOD)
Level (mAOD)
31 27 26 25
24
25 24
23 Aug-14 Dec-14 Apr-15 Aug-15 Dec-15 Apr-16 Aug-16 Dec-16 Apr-17
23
22 Aug-14 Dec-14 Apr-15 Aug-15 Dec-15 Apr-16 Aug-16 Dec-16 Apr-17
© Environment Agency 2017
Exceptionally high Below normal
Notably high Notably low
Above normal Exceptionally low
Normal ─── Latest data
WASHPIT FARM ROUGHAM
BIRCHAM TOFTS
Ranking derived from data for the period May-1950 to Dec-2012
Ranking derived from data for the period Sep-1971 to Dec-2012
50 50
49
48
47
Level (mAOD)
Level (mAOD)
48 46 45 44 43 42
46 44 42 40
41
40 Aug-14 Dec-14 Apr-15 Aug-15 Dec-15 Apr-16 Aug-16 Dec-16 Apr-17
38 Aug-14 Dec-14 Apr-15 Aug-15 Dec-15 Apr-16 Aug-16 Dec-16 Apr-17
SMEETHAM HALL COTT.
CASTLE FARM
Ranking derived from data for the period Jan-1964 to Dec-2012
Ranking derived from data for the period Mar-1967 to Dec-2012
30.0
24
29.5 22
29.0
Level (mAOD)
Level (mAOD)
28.5 28.0 27.5 27.0 26.5 26.0
20 18 16 14
25.5
25.0 Aug-14 Dec-14 Apr-15 Aug-15 Dec-15 Apr-16 Aug-16 Dec-16 Apr-17
12 Aug-14 Dec-14 Apr-15 Aug-15 Dec-15 Apr-16 Aug-16 Dec-16 Apr-17
OLD PRIMARY SCHOOL, South Creake
PUG COTTAGE
Ranking derived from data for the period Sep-1952 to Dec-2012
Ranking derived from data for the period Feb-1991 to Dec-2012
24
2.0 1.8
23
Level (mAOD)
Level (mAOD)
1.6 22 21 20
19
1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4
18
0.2
17 Aug-14 Dec-14 Apr-15 Aug-15 Dec-15 Apr-16 Aug-16 Dec-16 Apr-17
0.0 Aug-14 Dec-14 Apr-15 Aug-15 Dec-15 Apr-16 Aug-16 Dec-16 Apr-17
THE SPINNEY Ranking derived from data for the period Nov-1952 to Dec-2012
12.0 11.5
Level (mAOD)
11.0
10.5 10.0 9.5 9.0 8.5
8.0 Aug-14 Dec-14 Apr-15 Aug-15 Dec-15 Apr-16 Aug-16 Dec-16 Apr-17
© Environment Agency 2017
Reservoir Stocks
───2015-2016
May 2017
───Normal Operating Curve
───Drought Alert Curve
Alton
100
100
90
90
Percentage of live capacity
Percentage of live capacity
Grafham
── ─1995-1996
80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10
80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10
0
0 Jan Mar May
Jul
Sep Nov Jan Mar May
Jul
Sep Nov
Jan Mar May
Jul
Sep Nov Jan Mar May
Jul
Sep Nov
© Environment Agency 2017
───2015-2016
───Normal Operating Curve
───Drought Alert Curve
Ardleigh
Abberton
100
100
90
Percentage of live capacity
Percentage of live capacity
── ─1995-1996
80 70 60 50 40 30 20
80
60
40
20 Control curve 1 Control curve 2
10
n.b. from 20/01/2014 Abberton %full is based on increased “19m.Volume” n.b. from 29/09/2014 Abberton %full is based on increased “20m.Volume”
0
0 Jan Mar May
Jul
Sep Nov Jan Mar May
Jul
Sep Nov
Jul
Sep Nov
Jan Mar May
Jul
Sep Nov Jan Mar May
Jul
Sep Nov
Hanningfield
Percentage of live capacity
100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20
Control curve
10 0 Jan Mar May
Jul
Sep Nov Jan Mar May
© Environment Agency 2017
Forward Look – River Flows
Exceptionally high or low levels are those which would typically occur 5% of the time within the historic record. Notably high or low levels are those which would typically occur 8% of the time. Above normal or below normal levels are those which would typically occur 15% of the time. Normal levels are those which would typically occur 44% of the time within the historic record.
Probabilistic ensemble projections of river flows at key indicator sites in September 2017. Pie charts indicate probability, based on climatology, of the surface water flow at each site being e.g. exceptionally low for the time of year. (Source: Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Environment Agency) Geological map reproduced with kind permission from UK Groundwater Forum, BGS © NERC. Crown copyright. All rights reserved. Environment Agency, 100026380, 2017. ^ “Naturalised” flows are projected for these sites’
© Environment Agency 2017
Exceptionally high or low levels are those which would typically occur 5% of the time within the historic record. Notably high or low levels are those which would typically occur 8% of the time. Above normal or below normal levels are those which would typically occur 15% of the time. Normal levels are those which would typically occur 44% of the time within the historic record.
Probabilistic ensemble projections of river flows at key indicator sites in December 2017. Pie charts indicate probability, based on climatology, of the surface water flow at each site being e.g. exceptionally low for the time of year. (Source: Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Environment Agency) Geological map reproduced with kind permission from UK Groundwater Forum, BGS © NERC. Crown copyright. All rights reserved. Environment Agency, 100026380, 2017. ^ “Naturalised” flows are projected for these sites’
© Environment Agency 2017
Forward Look - Groundwater
Exceptionally high or low levels are those which would typically occur 5% of the time within the historic record. Notably high or low levels are those which would typically occur 8% of the time. Above normal or below normal levels are those which would typically occur 15% of the time. Normal levels are those which would typically occur 44% of the time within the historic record.
Probabilistic ensemble projections of groundwater levels at key indicator sites for end of September 2017. Pie charts indicate probability, based on climatology, of the groundwater level at each site being e.g. exceptionally low for the time of year. (Source: Environment Agency) Geological map reproduced with kind permission from UK Groundwater Forum, BGS © NERC. Crown copyright. All rights reserved. Environment Agency, 100026380, 2017.
© Environment Agency 2017
Exceptionally high or low levels are those which would typically occur 5% of the time within the historic record. Notably high or low levels are those which would typically occur 8% of the time. Above normal or below normal levels are those which would typically occur 15% of the time. Normal levels are those which would typically occur 44% of the time within the historic record.
Probabilistic ensemble projections of groundwater levels at key indicator sites for end of March 2017. Pie charts indicate probability, based on climatology, of the groundwater level at each site being e.g. exceptionally low for the time of year. (Source: Environment Agency) Geological map reproduced with kind permission from UK Groundwater Forum, BGS © NERC. Crown copyright. All rights reserved. Environment Agency, 100026380, 2016.
© Environment Agency 2017
Glossary Term
Definition
Aquifer
A geological formation able to store and transmit water.
Areal average rainfall
The estimated average depth of rainfall over a defined area. Expressed in depth of water (mm).
Artesian
The condition where the groundwater level is above ground surface but is prevented from rising to this level by an overlying continuous low permeability layer, such as clay.
Artesian borehole
Borehole where the level of groundwater is above the top of the borehole and groundwater flows out of the borehole when unsealed.
Cumecs
Cubic metres per second (m 3s-1)
Effective rainfall
The rainfall available to percolate into the soil or produce river flow. Expressed in depth of water (mm).
Flood Alert/Flood Warning
Three levels of warnings may be issued by the Environment Agency. Flood Alerts indicate flooding is possible. Flood Warnings indicate flooding is expected. Severe Flood Warnings indicate severe flooding.
Groundwater
The water found in an aquifer.
Long term average (LTA)
The arithmetic mean calculated from the historic record, usually based on the period 1961-1990. However, the period used may vary by parameter being reported on (see figure captions for details).
mAOD
Metres Above Ordnance Datum (mean sea level at Newlyn Cornwall).
MORECS
Met Office Rainfall and Evaporation Calculation System. Met Office service providing real time calculation of evapotranspiration, soil moisture deficit and effective rainfall on a 40 x 40 km grid.
Naturalised flow
River flow with the impacts of artificial influences removed. Artificial influences may include abstractions, discharges, transfers, augmentation and impoundments.
NCIC
National Climate Information Centre. NCIC area monthly rainfall totals are derived using the Met Office 5 km gridded dataset, which uses rain gauge observations.
Recharge
The process of increasing the water stored in the saturated zone of an aquifer. Expressed in depth of water (mm).
Reservoir gross capacity
The total capacity of a reservoir.
Reservoir live capacity
The capacity of the reservoir that is normally usable for storage to meet established reservoir operating requirements. This excludes any capacity not available for use (e.g. storage held back for emergency services, operating agreements or physical restrictions). May also be referred to as ‘net’ or ‘deployable’ capacity.
Soil moisture deficit (SMD)
The difference between the amount of water actually in the soil and the amount of water the soil can hold. Expressed in depth of water (mm).
Categories Exceptionally high Notably high Above normal Normal Below normal Notably low Exceptionally low
Value likely to fall within this band 5% of the time Value likely to fall within this band 8% of the time Value likely to fall within this band 15% of the time Value likely to fall within this band 44% of the time Value likely to fall within this band 15% of the time Value likely to fall within this band 8% of the time Value likely to fall within this band 5% of the time
© Environment Agency 2017
Rainfall After a dry start to the month a series of bands of rain during the middle of the month meant that May was wetter than the long term average in East Anglia. The area received an average of 55mm of rainfall, 114% of the long term average for May. The wettest part of the area was South Essex with 68mm, 159% of the long term average and the driest was North Norfolk with 50mm, 101% of the long term average.
Soil Moisture Deficit/Recharge In response to the wet May the soil moisture deficit has returned to normal for the time of year with an average value of 64mm in the area.
River Flows Despite the wet weather flows continued to fall at most sites with only the more runoff dominated sites showing an increase. Of the 17 sites reported on 5 are classified as normal, mainly in the clay catchments, 11 are classified as below normal, these are in the groundwater dominated catchments and the River Cam at Dernford is classified as exceptionally low.
Groundwater Levels Groundwater levels have continued to fall at all sites but in response to recent rainfall some sites are showing a shallower decline. Of the 16 sites used in this month’s report 5 are classified as normal, 9 below normal and the remaining 2 are classified as notably low.
Reservoir Storage/Water Resource Zone Stocks Reservoir stocks are near their normal operating curves.
Forward Look Probabilistic ensemble projections for river flows at key sites September 2017: There is an increased probability of flows being below the normal range in most of the chalk catchments this September. December 2017: There is an increased probability of flows being below the normal range at most sites in December. Probabilistic ensemble projections for groundwater levels in key aquifers September 2017: In the south of the area there is a greatly increased probability of Therfield Rectory and Redlands being notably low. In the rest of the area the model is forecasting levels on the boundary between normal and below normal for most rainfall scenarios. March 2018: The long range nature of these projections mean the models are currently showing a spread of results, however there is a tendency for the sights to the south to show an increased probability of levels below the normal range.
Author:
Hydrology & Operations
Contact details: 03708506506
All data are provisional and may be subject to revision. The views expressed in this document are not necessarily those of the Environment Agency. Its officers, servants or agents accept no liability for any loss or damage arising from the interpretation or use of the information, or reliance upon views contained herein.
© Environment Agency 2016
Rainfall
May 2017
© Environment Agency 2017
200%
200%
150%
150%
100%
100%
50%
50%
0%
0%
May-17
May-17
May-17
May-17
0%
Jun-16
Jul-16
Aug-16
Sep-16
Oct-16
Nov-16
Dec-16
Jan-17
Feb-17
Mar-17
Apr-17
May-17
Jun-16
Jul-16
Aug-16
Sep-16
Oct-16
Nov-16
Dec-16
Jan-17
Feb-17
Mar-17
0%
Feb-17
50%
Jan-17
50%
Dec-16
100%
Nov-16
100%
Oct-16
150%
Sep-16
150%
Aug-16
200%
Jul-16
Jun-16
May-17
Apr-17
Mar-17
Feb-17
Jan-17
Dec-16
Nov-16
Oct-16
Sep-16
Aug-16
Jul-16
Jun-16
200%
Mar-17
Apr-17
0%
Mar-17
0%
Feb-17
50%
Jan-17
50%
Dec-16
100%
Nov-16
100%
Oct-16
150%
Sep-16
150%
Aug-16
200%
Jul-16
Jun-16
May-17
Apr-17
Mar-17
Feb-17
Jan-17
Dec-16
Nov-16
Oct-16
Sep-16
Aug-16
Jul-16
Jun-16
200%
Mar-17
0%
Feb-17
0%
Jan-17
50%
Dec-16
50%
Nov-16
100%
Oct-16
100%
Sep-16
150%
Aug-16
150%
Jul-16
Jun-16
May-17
Apr-17
Mar-17
Feb-17
Jan-17
Dec-16
Nov-16
200%
Apr-17
1-Month Period for North Norfolk 250% 1-Month Period for Little Ouse and Lark 250%
Oct-16
Sep-16
Aug-16
Jul-16
Jun-16
200%
Apr-17
1-Month Period for NW Norfolk and Wissey 250% 1-Month Period for Cam 250%
Below average rainfall Above average rainfall
Apr-17
1-Month Period for Central Area Fenland 250% 1-Month Period for Lower Bedford Ouse 250%
1-Month Period for Upper Bedford Ouse 250%
1-Month Period for East Anglia 250%
© Environment Agency 2017
Above average rainfall
Below average rainfall
1-Month Period for Broadland Rivers
250%
200%
200%
150%
150%
100%
100%
50%
50%
0%
0%
May-17
Jan-17
Dec-16
Nov-16
Oct-16
Sep-16
Aug-16
Jul-16
Jun-16
May-17
Apr-17
Mar-17
Feb-17
Jan-17
Dec-16
Nov-16
Oct-16
Sep-16
Aug-16
Jul-16
Jun-16
May-17
0% Apr-17
0%
Apr-17
50%
Mar-17
50%
Mar-17
100%
Feb-17
100%
Feb-17
150%
Jan-17
150%
Dec-16
200%
Nov-16
1-Month Period for South Essex
250%
200%
Oct-16
Sep-16
Aug-16
Jul-16
Jun-16
May-17
Apr-17
Mar-17
Feb-17
Jan-17
Dec-16
Nov-16
Oct-16
Sep-16
Aug-16
Jul-16
Jun-16
1-Month Period for North Essex
250%
1-Month Period for East Suffolk
250%
Soil Moisture Deficit
© Environment Agency 2017
Data based on MORECS dataset (Met Office © Crown Copyright)
───2015-16 Exceptionally high Below normal
─ ─ ─2014-15 Notably high Notably low
Above normal Exceptionally low
Normal ─── Latest data
East Anglia Ranking derived from data for the period Jan-1961 to Dec-2012 0 20
SMD (mm)
40 60 80
100 120 140 Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
River Flow
Apr May Jun
Jul
May 2017
© Environment Agency 2017
Exceptionally high Below normal
Notably high Notably low
Above normal Exceptionally low
Normal ─── Latest data
Cappenham, TOVE Ranking derived from data for the period Feb-1962 to Dec-2012 6.0
Flow (cumecs)
5.0 4.0
3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 Aug-16
Oct-16
Dec-16
Feb-17
Apr-17
Jun-17
Willen, OUZEL
Roxton, OUSE (AN)
Ranking derived from data for the period Jan-1962 to Dec-2012
Ranking derived from data for the period Oct-1972 to Dec-2012
16
50
12
Flow (cumecs)
Flow (cumecs)
14
10 8 6
40 30 20
4 10 2 Oct-16
Dec-16
Feb-17
Apr-17
0 Aug-16
Jun-17
Oct-16
Dec-16
Feb-17
Apr-17
Jun-17
Blunham, IVEL
Offord(Gross Flows), OUSE (AN)
Ranking derived from data for the period Aug-1959 to Dec-2012
Ranking derived from data for the period Jan-1970 to Dec-2012
12
120
10
100
Flow (cumecs)
Flow (cumecs)
0 Aug-16
8
6 4 2 0 Aug-16
80
60 40 20
Oct-16
Dec-16
Feb-17
Apr-17
Jun-17
0 Aug-16
Oct-16
Dec-16
Feb-17
Apr-17
Jun-17
© Environment Agency 2017
Notably high Notably low
Above normal Exceptionally low
Normal ─── Latest data
Dernford, CAM (AN)
Temple, LARK
Ranking derived from data for the period Feb-1949 to Dec-2012
Ranking derived from data for the period Nov-1960 to Dec-2012
5.0
5.0
4.5
4.5
4.0
4.0
3.5
3.5
Flow (cumecs)
Flow (cumecs)
Exceptionally high Below normal
3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5
3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5
1.0
1.0
0.5
0.5
0.0 Aug-16
Oct-16
Dec-16
Feb-17
Apr-17
0.0 Aug-16
Jun-17
Oct-16
Dec-16
Feb-17
Apr-17
Jun-17
Abbey Heath, LITTLE OUSE
Northwold Total, WISSEY
Ranking derived from data for the period Jun-1968 to Dec-2012
Ranking derived from data for the period Jul-1983 to Dec-2012 8
16 7
12
Flow (cumecs)
Flow (cumecs)
14
10 8 6
6
5 4 3
4
2
2
1
0 Aug-16
Oct-16
Dec-16
Feb-17
Apr-17
0 Aug-16
Jun-17
Oct-16
Dec-16
Feb-17
Apr-17
Jun-17
Denver Ely Ouse, OUSE (AN)
Marham, NAR
Ranking derived from data for the period Nov-1971 to Dec-2012
Ranking derived from data for the period Apr-1982 to Dec-2012 3.0 2.5
40
Flow (cumecs)
Flow (cumecs)
50
30 20 10 0 Aug-16
2.0
1.5 1.0 0.5
Oct-16
Dec-16
Feb-17
Apr-17
0.0 Aug-16
Jun-17
Oct-16
Dec-16
Feb-17
Apr-17
Jun-17
Heacham, HEACHAM
Ingworth, BURE
Ranking derived from data for the period Nov-1965 to Dec-2012
Ranking derived from data for the period Jun-1959 to Dec-2012
1.0
3.0
0.9 2.5
0.7
Flow (cumecs)
Flow (cumecs)
0.8
0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2
2.0
1.5 1.0 0.5
0.1 0.0 Aug-16
Oct-16
Dec-16
Feb-17
Apr-17
Jun-17
0.0 Aug-16
Oct-16
Dec-16
Feb-17
Apr-17
Jun-17
© Environment Agency 2017
Exceptionally high Below normal
Notably high Notably low
Above normal Exceptionally low
Normal ─── Latest data
Swanton Morley Total Flow, WENSUM
Needham Weir Total, WAVENEY LOWER
Ranking derived from data for the period Oct-1969 to Dec-2012
Ranking derived from data for the period Dec-1963 to Dec-2012
10
12
9
10
7
Flow (cumecs)
Flow (cumecs)
8
6 5 4 3 2
Oct-16
Dec-16
Feb-17
Apr-17
4
0 Aug-16
Jun-17
Oct-16
Dec-16
Feb-17
Apr-17
Jun-17
Lexden, COLNE (AN)
Springfield, CHELMER
Ranking derived from data for the period Oct-1959 to Dec-2012
Ranking derived from data for the period Nov-1965 to Dec-2012
7
6
6
5
5
Flow (cumecs)
Flow (cumecs)
6
2
1 0 Aug-16
8
4
3 2
3 2 1
1 0 Aug-16
4
Oct-16
Dec-16
Feb-17
Apr-17
Jun-17
0 Aug-16
Oct-16
Dec-16
Feb-17
Apr-17
Jun-17
© Environment Agency 2017
Groundwater Levels
Notably high Notably low
Above normal Exceptionally low
Normal ─── Latest data
FRINGFORD - GREAT OOLITE
BIGGLESWADE
Ranking derived from data for the period Sep-1980 to Dec-2012
Ranking derived from data for the period Mar-1968 to Dec-2012
99
28.0
98
27.5
97 96 95
Level (mAOD)
Level (mAOD)
Exceptionally high Below normal
May 2017
27.0 26.5 26.0
94
25.5
93 Aug-14 Dec-14 Apr-15 Aug-15 Dec-15 Apr-16 Aug-16 Dec-16 Apr-17
25.0 Aug-14 Dec-14 Apr-15 Aug-15 Dec-15 Apr-16 Aug-16 Dec-16 Apr-17
© Environment Agency 2017
Exceptionally high Below normal
Notably high Notably low
Above normal Exceptionally low
Normal ─── Latest data
THERFIELD RECTORY
REDLANDS HALL
Ranking derived from data for the period Jan-1883 to Dec-2012
Ranking derived from data for the period Aug-1963 to Dec-2012
96 52
Level (mAOD)
86 81
47
42
76
37
71 Aug-14 Dec-14 Apr-15 Aug-15 Dec-15 Apr-16 Aug-16 Dec-16 Apr-17
32 Aug-14 Dec-14 Apr-15 Aug-15 Dec-15 Apr-16 Aug-16 Dec-16 Apr-17
LINTON
GOG MAGOG
Ranking derived from data for the period Jan-1980 to Dec-2012
Ranking derived from data for the period Jan-1980 to Dec-2012
31
18
30
17
29
Level (mAOD)
Level (mAOD)
Level (mAOD)
91
28 27
26
16 15 14
25
13
24 Aug-14 Dec-14 Apr-15 Aug-15 Dec-15 Apr-16 Aug-16 Dec-16 Apr-17
12 Aug-14 Dec-14 Apr-15 Aug-15 Dec-15 Apr-16 Aug-16 Dec-16 Apr-17
BURY ST EDMUNDS
NEWMARKET
Ranking derived from data for the period May-1983 to Dec-2012
Ranking derived from data for the period Feb-1983 to Dec-2012
33
17 16
31
Level (mAOD)
Level (mAOD)
32
30 29 28 27
15 14 13
26
25 Aug-14 Dec-14 Apr-15 Aug-15 Dec-15 Apr-16 Aug-16 Dec-16 Apr-17
12 Aug-14 Dec-14 Apr-15 Aug-15 Dec-15 Apr-16 Aug-16 Dec-16 Apr-17
KENNINGHALL
BRECKLAND
Ranking derived from data for the period Aug-1973 to Dec-2012
Ranking derived from data for the period Jan-1971 to Dec-2012
33
29
32
28
30 29 28 27 26
Level (mAOD)
Level (mAOD)
31 27 26 25
24
25 24
23 Aug-14 Dec-14 Apr-15 Aug-15 Dec-15 Apr-16 Aug-16 Dec-16 Apr-17
23
22 Aug-14 Dec-14 Apr-15 Aug-15 Dec-15 Apr-16 Aug-16 Dec-16 Apr-17
© Environment Agency 2017
Exceptionally high Below normal
Notably high Notably low
Above normal Exceptionally low
Normal ─── Latest data
WASHPIT FARM ROUGHAM
BIRCHAM TOFTS
Ranking derived from data for the period May-1950 to Dec-2012
Ranking derived from data for the period Sep-1971 to Dec-2012
50 50
49
48
47
Level (mAOD)
Level (mAOD)
48 46 45 44 43 42
46 44 42 40
41
40 Aug-14 Dec-14 Apr-15 Aug-15 Dec-15 Apr-16 Aug-16 Dec-16 Apr-17
38 Aug-14 Dec-14 Apr-15 Aug-15 Dec-15 Apr-16 Aug-16 Dec-16 Apr-17
SMEETHAM HALL COTT.
CASTLE FARM
Ranking derived from data for the period Jan-1964 to Dec-2012
Ranking derived from data for the period Mar-1967 to Dec-2012
30.0
24
29.5 22
29.0
Level (mAOD)
Level (mAOD)
28.5 28.0 27.5 27.0 26.5 26.0
20 18 16 14
25.5
25.0 Aug-14 Dec-14 Apr-15 Aug-15 Dec-15 Apr-16 Aug-16 Dec-16 Apr-17
12 Aug-14 Dec-14 Apr-15 Aug-15 Dec-15 Apr-16 Aug-16 Dec-16 Apr-17
OLD PRIMARY SCHOOL, South Creake
PUG COTTAGE
Ranking derived from data for the period Sep-1952 to Dec-2012
Ranking derived from data for the period Feb-1991 to Dec-2012
24
2.0 1.8
23
Level (mAOD)
Level (mAOD)
1.6 22 21 20
19
1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4
18
0.2
17 Aug-14 Dec-14 Apr-15 Aug-15 Dec-15 Apr-16 Aug-16 Dec-16 Apr-17
0.0 Aug-14 Dec-14 Apr-15 Aug-15 Dec-15 Apr-16 Aug-16 Dec-16 Apr-17
THE SPINNEY Ranking derived from data for the period Nov-1952 to Dec-2012
12.0 11.5
Level (mAOD)
11.0
10.5 10.0 9.5 9.0 8.5
8.0 Aug-14 Dec-14 Apr-15 Aug-15 Dec-15 Apr-16 Aug-16 Dec-16 Apr-17
© Environment Agency 2017
Reservoir Stocks
───2015-2016
May 2017
───Normal Operating Curve
───Drought Alert Curve
Alton
100
100
90
90
Percentage of live capacity
Percentage of live capacity
Grafham
── ─1995-1996
80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10
80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10
0
0 Jan Mar May
Jul
Sep Nov Jan Mar May
Jul
Sep Nov
Jan Mar May
Jul
Sep Nov Jan Mar May
Jul
Sep Nov
© Environment Agency 2017
───2015-2016
───Normal Operating Curve
───Drought Alert Curve
Ardleigh
Abberton
100
100
90
Percentage of live capacity
Percentage of live capacity
── ─1995-1996
80 70 60 50 40 30 20
80
60
40
20 Control curve 1 Control curve 2
10
n.b. from 20/01/2014 Abberton %full is based on increased “19m.Volume” n.b. from 29/09/2014 Abberton %full is based on increased “20m.Volume”
0
0 Jan Mar May
Jul
Sep Nov Jan Mar May
Jul
Sep Nov
Jul
Sep Nov
Jan Mar May
Jul
Sep Nov Jan Mar May
Jul
Sep Nov
Hanningfield
Percentage of live capacity
100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20
Control curve
10 0 Jan Mar May
Jul
Sep Nov Jan Mar May
© Environment Agency 2017
Forward Look – River Flows
Exceptionally high or low levels are those which would typically occur 5% of the time within the historic record. Notably high or low levels are those which would typically occur 8% of the time. Above normal or below normal levels are those which would typically occur 15% of the time. Normal levels are those which would typically occur 44% of the time within the historic record.
Probabilistic ensemble projections of river flows at key indicator sites in September 2017. Pie charts indicate probability, based on climatology, of the surface water flow at each site being e.g. exceptionally low for the time of year. (Source: Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Environment Agency) Geological map reproduced with kind permission from UK Groundwater Forum, BGS © NERC. Crown copyright. All rights reserved. Environment Agency, 100026380, 2017. ^ “Naturalised” flows are projected for these sites’
© Environment Agency 2017
Exceptionally high or low levels are those which would typically occur 5% of the time within the historic record. Notably high or low levels are those which would typically occur 8% of the time. Above normal or below normal levels are those which would typically occur 15% of the time. Normal levels are those which would typically occur 44% of the time within the historic record.
Probabilistic ensemble projections of river flows at key indicator sites in December 2017. Pie charts indicate probability, based on climatology, of the surface water flow at each site being e.g. exceptionally low for the time of year. (Source: Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Environment Agency) Geological map reproduced with kind permission from UK Groundwater Forum, BGS © NERC. Crown copyright. All rights reserved. Environment Agency, 100026380, 2017. ^ “Naturalised” flows are projected for these sites’
© Environment Agency 2017
Forward Look - Groundwater
Exceptionally high or low levels are those which would typically occur 5% of the time within the historic record. Notably high or low levels are those which would typically occur 8% of the time. Above normal or below normal levels are those which would typically occur 15% of the time. Normal levels are those which would typically occur 44% of the time within the historic record.
Probabilistic ensemble projections of groundwater levels at key indicator sites for end of September 2017. Pie charts indicate probability, based on climatology, of the groundwater level at each site being e.g. exceptionally low for the time of year. (Source: Environment Agency) Geological map reproduced with kind permission from UK Groundwater Forum, BGS © NERC. Crown copyright. All rights reserved. Environment Agency, 100026380, 2017.
© Environment Agency 2017
Exceptionally high or low levels are those which would typically occur 5% of the time within the historic record. Notably high or low levels are those which would typically occur 8% of the time. Above normal or below normal levels are those which would typically occur 15% of the time. Normal levels are those which would typically occur 44% of the time within the historic record.
Probabilistic ensemble projections of groundwater levels at key indicator sites for end of March 2017. Pie charts indicate probability, based on climatology, of the groundwater level at each site being e.g. exceptionally low for the time of year. (Source: Environment Agency) Geological map reproduced with kind permission from UK Groundwater Forum, BGS © NERC. Crown copyright. All rights reserved. Environment Agency, 100026380, 2016.
© Environment Agency 2017
Glossary Term
Definition
Aquifer
A geological formation able to store and transmit water.
Areal average rainfall
The estimated average depth of rainfall over a defined area. Expressed in depth of water (mm).
Artesian
The condition where the groundwater level is above ground surface but is prevented from rising to this level by an overlying continuous low permeability layer, such as clay.
Artesian borehole
Borehole where the level of groundwater is above the top of the borehole and groundwater flows out of the borehole when unsealed.
Cumecs
Cubic metres per second (m 3s-1)
Effective rainfall
The rainfall available to percolate into the soil or produce river flow. Expressed in depth of water (mm).
Flood Alert/Flood Warning
Three levels of warnings may be issued by the Environment Agency. Flood Alerts indicate flooding is possible. Flood Warnings indicate flooding is expected. Severe Flood Warnings indicate severe flooding.
Groundwater
The water found in an aquifer.
Long term average (LTA)
The arithmetic mean calculated from the historic record, usually based on the period 1961-1990. However, the period used may vary by parameter being reported on (see figure captions for details).
mAOD
Metres Above Ordnance Datum (mean sea level at Newlyn Cornwall).
MORECS
Met Office Rainfall and Evaporation Calculation System. Met Office service providing real time calculation of evapotranspiration, soil moisture deficit and effective rainfall on a 40 x 40 km grid.
Naturalised flow
River flow with the impacts of artificial influences removed. Artificial influences may include abstractions, discharges, transfers, augmentation and impoundments.
NCIC
National Climate Information Centre. NCIC area monthly rainfall totals are derived using the Met Office 5 km gridded dataset, which uses rain gauge observations.
Recharge
The process of increasing the water stored in the saturated zone of an aquifer. Expressed in depth of water (mm).
Reservoir gross capacity
The total capacity of a reservoir.
Reservoir live capacity
The capacity of the reservoir that is normally usable for storage to meet established reservoir operating requirements. This excludes any capacity not available for use (e.g. storage held back for emergency services, operating agreements or physical restrictions). May also be referred to as ‘net’ or ‘deployable’ capacity.
Soil moisture deficit (SMD)
The difference between the amount of water actually in the soil and the amount of water the soil can hold. Expressed in depth of water (mm).
Categories Exceptionally high Notably high Above normal Normal Below normal Notably low Exceptionally low
Value likely to fall within this band 5% of the time Value likely to fall within this band 8% of the time Value likely to fall within this band 15% of the time Value likely to fall within this band 44% of the time Value likely to fall within this band 15% of the time Value likely to fall within this band 8% of the time Value likely to fall within this band 5% of the time
© Environment Agency 2017
