Water Situation Report - Gov.uk
Monthly water situation report Lincolnshire and Northamptonshire Area Summary – November 2017 The rainfall totals for November were below the Long Term Average for all rainfall units in the Lincolnshire and Northamptonshire Area with units to the North receiving slightly more rainfall than those to the south and as such as being Normal and Below Normal accordingly. Though rainfall totals were below the LTA the Soil Moisture Deficit (SMD) has decreased but is still classified as Above Normal or Notably High in most cases. River flows in the northern half of the Area are considered Normal with the exceptions of the Lymn and Steeping and Upper Witham which as classified as Below Normal. River flows in the southern half of the Area are considered Notably Low with the exception of Kates Bridge which is classified as Exceptionally Low. Groundwater levels have decrease across the area with the exception of Dunholm Road and Scothern. Levels are considered to be Normal across most of the area with the exceptions of Leasingham Exploratory and Grange Farm which are Below Normal and Castlethorpe Bridge which is Above Normal. Rutland Reservoir is close to its normal operating curve whilst Covenham and Ravensthorpe and Hollowell are below their operating curves.
Rainfall November rainfall totals were close to the Long Term Average (LTA) for the Louth, Grimsby and Ancholme and the Steeping, Great Eau and Long Eau rainfall units and as such banded as Normal. Values in the rest of the area were below the LTA and as such banded as Below Normal. Values were however fairly consistent across the area ranging from 84% of the LTA in the Louth, Grimsby and Ancholme rainfall unit to 66% of the LTA in the South Forty Foot and Hobhole rainfall unit. Over the last 3 months the north of the Area has been slightly wetter than the south, with rainfall totals below the LTA. Over the last 6 months, the north of the Area has been slightly wetter than the south with rainfall totals nearing or exceeding the LTAs for all rainfall units. Over the last 12 months rainfall totals were slightly below the LTA for all rainfall units with those to the north being classifies as Normal and those to the south classified as Below Normal.
Soil Moisture Deficit/Recharge Due to the rainfall totals received in November, SMD’s across the area have decreased. However, values are still higher than expected for this time of year and as such are classified as ‘Above Normal’ or ‘Notably High’ in most cases.
River Flows River flows in the northern half of the Area are higher than those in the southern part when compared with the LTAs. In the north, the rivers Ancholme, Lud, Bain and Barling Eau are considered to be ‘Normal’ for this time of year and the rivers Lymn and Steeping and Upper Witham are ‘Below Normal’. In the south, flows in the rivers Welland and Nene are considered to be ‘Notably Low’. At Kate’s Bridge on the river Glen flows were classified as ‘Exceptionally Low’.
Groundwater Levels Due to rainfall totals in November, groundwater levels have fallen at all monitoring sites across the Area with the exception of Dunholm Road, Scothern where levels increased slightly. Levels at most sites are classified as ‘Normal’ when compared to the LTA with the exception of Castlethorpe Bridge, Leasingham Exploratory and Grange Farm, Aswarby. Due to the lower rainfall totals in the central part of the catchment in November, levels at Leasingham and Grange Farm are lower than expected for this time of year and as such are classified as ‘Below Normal’. As in October, levels at Castlethorpe Bridge remain ‘Above Normal’ when compared to the LTA for November.
All data are provisional and may be subject to revision. The views expressed in this document are not necessarily those of the Environment Agency. Its officers, servants or agents accept no liability for any loss or damage arising from the interpretation or use of the information, or reliance upon views contained herein.
© Environment Agency 2017
Reservoir Storage/Water Resource Zone Stocks Water levels in Rutland remain close to the reservoir’s operating curve, whilst water levels at the Hollowell and Ravensthorpe and the Covenham reservoirs remain below their operating curve. Water levels at Pitsford were managed below the operating curve for engineering works. These work are now complete and future opportunities will be maximised to recover storage.
Environmental Impact No fluvial flood warnings or flood alerts were issued during November. The number of abstraction licences subject to restrictions remained at 4. The Slea and the Gwash-Glen augmentation schemes have been operating continuously throughout the month and the Trent, Witham and Ancholme transfer was not required.
Forward Look River flow March 2018: There is a slightly increased probability of Notably Low flows across the river, and there is an increased probability of Exceptionally Low flows in the Upper Nene. June 2018: The forecast shows an increased probability of flows being below Notably Low at Wansford, and an increased probability of Exceptionally Low flows at Northampton.
Groundwater March 2018: The forecast shows an increased probability of levels being Below Normal at Horkstow and Hanthorpe, whilst there is an increased probability of levels being Normal at Grainsby. September 2018: There is an increased probability of Below Normal groundwater levels across the area, but there is a decreased probability of Exceptionally Low and Notably Low groundwater levels in the chalk and a decreased probability of Exceptionally Low levels in the limestone.
Author:
Hydrology and Operations
Contact details: 03708 506506
All data are provisional and may be subject to revision. The views expressed in this document are not necessarily those of the Environment Agency. Its officers, servants or agents accept no liability for any loss or damage arising from the interpretation or use of the information, or reliance upon views contained herein.
© Environment Agency 2017
Rainfall
© Environment Agency 2017
Total Rainfall in Millimetres
Long Term Average Rainfall in Millimetres 1-Month Period for Steeping Great Eau and Long Eau
140
140
120
120
100
100
Rainfall mm
Rainfall mm
1-Month Period for Louth Grimsby and Ancholme
80 60
80 60
40
40
20
20
0
0
120
120
100
100
Rainfall mm
Rainfall mm
1-Month Period for South Forty Foot and Hobhole 140
80 60
80 60
40
40
20
20
0
0
100
100
Rainfall mm
120
80 60
80 60
40
40
20
20
0
0 Sep-17
Aug-17
Jul-17
Jun-17
May-17
Apr-17
Mar-17
Feb-17
Jan-17
Dec-16
Nov-17
Oct-17
Sep-17
Aug-17
Jul-17
Jun-17
May-17
Apr-17
Mar-17
Nov-17
120
Feb-17
Nov-17
140
Jan-17
Oct-17
1-Month Period for Lower Welland and Nene
140
Dec-16
Oct-17
Sep-17
Aug-17
Jul-17
Jun-17
May-17
Apr-17
Mar-17
Feb-17
Jan-17
Dec-16
Nov-17
Oct-17
Sep-17
Aug-17
Jul-17
Jun-17
May-17
Apr-17
Mar-17
Feb-17
Jan-17
Dec-16
1-Month Period for Upper Welland and Nene
Rainfall mm
Nov-17
Oct-17
Sep-17
Aug-17
Jul-17
Jun-17
May-17
Apr-17
Mar-17
Feb-17
Jan-17
Dec-16
Nov-17
Oct-17
Sep-17
Aug-17
Jul-17
Jun-17
May-17
Apr-17
Mar-17
Feb-17
Jan-17
Dec-16
1-Month Period for Witham to Chapel Hill 140
© Environment Agency 2017
Soil Moisture Deficit Ancholme Grimsby Louth
Steeping Great Eau and Long Eau
Ranking derived from data for the period Jan-1961 to Dec-
Ranking derived from data for the period Jan-1961 to Dec2012 0
20
20
40
40
60
60
SMD (mm)
SMD (mm)
2012 0
80 100
100
120
120
140
140 160
160 Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Dec
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Witham to Chapel Hill
South Forty Foot and Hobhole Ranking derived from data for the period Jan-1961 to Dec-
Dec
2012
0
0.00
20
20.00
40
40.00
60
60.00
80 100
80.00 100.00
120
120.00
140
140.00
160
160.00 Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Upper Welland and Nene
Lower Welland and Nene
Ranking derived from data for the period Jan-1961 to Dec-2012
Ranking derived from data for the period Jan-1961 to Dec-2012
0.00
0.00
20.00
20.00
40.00
40.00
60.00
60.00
SMD (mm)
SMD (mm)
Jan
Ranking derived from data for the period Jan-1961 to Dec2012
SMD (mm)
SMD (mm)
80
80.00
Nov
Dec
Nov
Dec
80.00
100.00
100.00
120.00
120.00
140.00
140.00 160.00
160.00 Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
Exceptionally low Above normal -------- 2015 – 2016 data
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Notably low Notably high
Dec
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Below normal Normal Exceptionally high ─── 2016 - 2017 data
© Environment Agency 2017
River Flow
© Environment Agency 2017
Exceptionally high Below normal
Notably high Notably low
Above normal Exceptionally low
Normal ─── Latest data
Louth Weir, LUD
Rase Bishopbridge, ANCHOLME
Ranking derived from data for the period Jul-1968 to Dec-2012
Ranking derived from data for the period Jun-1967 to Dec-2012
2.0
3.0
1.8 2.5
1.4
Flow (cumecs)
Flow (cumecs)
1.6
1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4
2.0
1.5 1.0 0.5
0.2 Apr-17
Jun-17
Aug-17
Oct-17
0.0 Feb-17
Dec-17
Apr-17
Jun-17
Aug-17
Oct-17
Dec-17
Claypole, UPPER WITHAM
Partney, LYMN & STEEPING
Ranking derived from data for the period May-1959 to Dec-2012
Ranking derived from data for the period May-1962 to Dec-2012
8
2.0
7
1.8 1.6
6
Flow (cumecs)
Flow (cumecs)
0.0 Feb-17
5 4 3 2
1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4
1 0 Feb-17
1.4
0.2 Apr-17
Jun-17
Aug-17
Oct-17
0.0 Feb-17
Dec-17
Apr-17
Jun-17
Aug-17
Oct-17
Dec-17
Fulsby and Fulsby Model combined, BAIN
Langworth, BARLINGS EAU
Ranking derived from data for the period Oct-1962 to Dec-2012
Ranking derived from data for the period Jul-1980 to Dec-2012
6
10 9 8
Flow (cumecs)
Flow (cumecs)
5 4
3 2
7
6 5 4 3 2
1
1 Apr-17
Jun-17
Aug-17
Oct-17
0 Feb-17
Dec-17
Apr-17
Jun-17
Aug-17
Oct-17
Dec-17
Ashley, WELLAND
Kates Bridge plus King Street, GLEN
Ranking derived from data for the period Oct-1970 to Dec-2012
Ranking derived from data for the period Jan-1991 to Dec-2012
7
7
6
6
5
5
Flow (cumecs)
Flow (cumecs)
0 Feb-17
4
3 2 1 0 Feb-17
4
3 2 1
Apr-17
Jun-17
Aug-17
Oct-17
Dec-17
0 Feb-17
Apr-17
Jun-17
Aug-17
Oct-17
Dec-17
© Environment Agency 2017
Notably high Notably low
Above normal Exceptionally low
Normal ─── Latest data
Upton Mill Total, NENE - KISLINGBURY BRANCH
St.Andrews total, NENE - BRAMPTON BRANCH
Ranking derived from data for the period Jan-1970 to Dec-2012
Ranking derived from data for the period Jan-1970 to Dec-2012
5
5
5
5
4
4
4
4
Flow (cumecs)
Flow (cumecs)
Exceptionally high Below normal
3 3 2 2
3 3 2 2
1
1
1
1
0 Feb-17
Apr-17
Jun-17
Aug-17
Oct-17
Dec-17
0 Feb-17
Apr-17
Jun-17
Aug-17
Oct-17
Dec-17
© Environment Agency 2017
Groundwater Levels
© Environment Agency 2017
Above normal Exceptionally low
Normal ─── Latest data
Dunholme Rd, Scothern
Castlethorpe Bridge
Ranking derived from data for the period Nov-1979 to Dec-2012
Ranking derived from data for the period Nov-1996 to Dec-2012
3
22
3
21
2
Level (mAOD)
23
20 19 18 17
2 1 1
16
0
15
-1
14 Feb-17
Level (mAOD)
Notably high Notably low
Apr-17
Jun-17
Aug-17
Oct-17
-1 Feb-17
Dec-17
Apr-17
Jun-17
Aug-17
Oct-17
Dec-17
Leasingham Exploratory
Grange Farm, Aswarby
Ranking derived from data for the period Sep-1972 to Dec-2012
Ranking derived from data for the period Dec-1970 to Dec-2012
21
22
19
20
Level (mAOD)
Level (mAOD)
Exceptionally high Below normal
17 15 13 11
9 Feb-17
18 16 14
12 10
Apr-17
Jun-17
Aug-17
Oct-17
8 Feb-17
Dec-17
Apr-17
Jun-17
Aug-17
Oct-17
Dec-17
Greatford, Liffington
Hanthorpe
Ranking derived from data for the period Jul-1974 to Dec-2012
Ranking derived from data for the period Jul-1972 to Dec-2012
17 18 16
Level (mAOD)
Level (mAOD)
15 13 11 9 7
5 Feb-17
14 12 10
8 6
Apr-17
Jun-17
Aug-17
Oct-17
4 Feb-17
Dec-17
Apr-17
Jun-17
Aug-17
Oct-17
Dec-17
Grainsby
Barton Horkstow Road
Ranking derived from data for the period Oct-1977 to Dec-2012
Ranking derived from data for the period Apr-1980 to Dec-2012
8 21
7 6
17
Level (mAOD)
Level (mAOD)
19
15 13 11 9
4 3 2
1
7 5 Feb-17
5
0
Apr-17
Jun-17
Aug-17
Oct-17
Dec-17
-1 Feb-17
Apr-17
Jun-17
Aug-17
Oct-17
Dec-17
© Environment Agency 2017
Reservoir Stocks Covenham
100
100
90
90
Percentage of live capacity
Percentage of live capacity
Rutland
80 70 60 50
40 30 20 10
80 70 60 50 40 30
20 10
0
0 Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
Jan
Apr
Jul
Jan
Oct
Apr
Oct
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
Jul
Oct
Hollowell and Ravensthorpe
100
100
90
90 Percentage of live capacity
Percentage of live capacity
Pitsford
Jul
80 70 60 50 40
30 20 10 0
80 70 60 50 40
30 20 10 0
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
Normal Operating Curve ------
Jan
Apr
2015-2016 ------
Jul
Oct
Jan
Apr
2016-2017 ------
© Environment Agency 2017
Forward Look – River Flows
Probabilistic ensemble projections of river flows at key indicator sites in March 2018 Pie charts indicate probability, based on climatology, of the surface water flow at each site being e.g. exceptionally low for the time of year. (Source: Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Environment Agency) Geological map reproduced with kind permission from UK Groundwater Forum, BGS © NERC. Crown copyright. All rights reserved. Environment Agency, 100026380, 2017.
© Environment Agency 2017
Forward Look – River Flows
Probabilistic ensemble projections of river flows at key indicator sites in June 2018 Pie charts indicate probability, based on climatology, of the surface water flow at each site being e.g. exceptionally low for the time of year. (Source: Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Environment Agency) Geological map reproduced with kind permission from UK Groundwater Forum, BGS © NERC. Crown copyright. All rights reserved. Environment Agency, 100026380, 2017.
© Environment Agency 2017
Forward Look - Groundwater
Probabilistic ensemble projections of groundwater levels at key indicator sites for end of March 2018. Pie charts indicate probability, based on climatology, of the surface water flow at each site being e.g. exceptionally low for the time of year. (Source: Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Environment Agency) Geological map reproduced with kind permission from UK Groundwater Forum, BGS © NERC. Crown copyright. All rights reserved. Environment Agency, 100026380, 2017.
© Environment Agency 2017
Forward Look - Groundwater
Probabilistic ensemble projections of groundwater levels at key indicator sites for end of September 2018. Pie charts indicate probability, based on climatology, of the surface water flow at each site being e.g. exceptionally low for the time of year. (Source: Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Environment Agency) Geological map reproduced with kind permission from UK Groundwater Forum, BGS © NERC. Crown copyright. All rights reserved. Environment Agency, 100026380, 2017.
© Environment Agency 2017
Glossary Term
Definition
Aquifer
A geological formation able to store and transmit water.
Areal average rainfall
The estimated average depth of rainfall over a defined area. Expressed in depth of water (mm).
Artesian
The condition where the groundwater level is above ground surface but is prevented from rising to this level by an overlying continuous low permeability layer, such as clay.
Artesian borehole
Borehole where the level of groundwater is above the top of the borehole and groundwater flows out of the borehole when unsealed.
Cumecs
Cubic metres per second (m 3s-1)
Effective rainfall
The rainfall available to percolate into the soil or produce river flow. Expressed in depth of water (mm).
Flood Alert/Flood Warning
Three levels of warnings may be issued by the Environment Agency. Flood Alerts indicate flooding is possible. Flood Warnings indicate flooding is expected. Severe Flood Warnings indicate severe flooding.
Groundwater
The water found in an aquifer.
Long term average (LTA)
The arithmetic mean calculated from the historic record, usually based on the period 1961-1990. However, the period used may vary by parameter being reported on (see figure captions for details).
mAOD
Metres Above Ordnance Datum (mean sea level at Newlyn Cornwall).
MORECS
Met Office Rainfall and Evaporation Calculation System. Met Office service providing real time calculation of evapotranspiration, soil moisture deficit and effective rainfall on a 40 x 40 km grid.
Naturalised flow
River flow with the impacts of artificial influences removed. Artificial influences may include abstractions, discharges, transfers, augmentation and impoundments.
NCIC
National Climate Information Centre. NCIC area monthly rainfall totals are derived using the Met Office 5 km gridded dataset, which uses rain gauge observations.
Recharge
The process of increasing the water stored in the saturated zone of an aquifer. Expressed in depth of water (mm).
Reservoir gross capacity
The total capacity of a reservoir.
Reservoir live capacity
The capacity of the reservoir that is normally usable for storage to meet established reservoir operating requirements. This excludes any capacity not available for use (e.g. storage held back for emergency services, operating agreements or physical restrictions). May also be referred to as ‘net’ or ‘deployable’ capacity.
Soil moisture deficit (SMD)
The difference between the amount of water actually in the soil and the amount of water the soil can hold. Expressed in depth of water (mm).
Categories Exceptionally high Notably high Above normal Normal Below normal Notably low Exceptionally low
Value likely to fall within this band 5% of the time Value likely to fall within this band 8% of the time Value likely to fall within this band 15% of the time Value likely to fall within this band 44% of the time Value likely to fall within this band 15% of the time Value likely to fall within this band 8% of the time Value likely to fall within this band 5% of the time
© Environment Agency 2017
Rainfall November rainfall totals were close to the Long Term Average (LTA) for the Louth, Grimsby and Ancholme and the Steeping, Great Eau and Long Eau rainfall units and as such banded as Normal. Values in the rest of the area were below the LTA and as such banded as Below Normal. Values were however fairly consistent across the area ranging from 84% of the LTA in the Louth, Grimsby and Ancholme rainfall unit to 66% of the LTA in the South Forty Foot and Hobhole rainfall unit. Over the last 3 months the north of the Area has been slightly wetter than the south, with rainfall totals below the LTA. Over the last 6 months, the north of the Area has been slightly wetter than the south with rainfall totals nearing or exceeding the LTAs for all rainfall units. Over the last 12 months rainfall totals were slightly below the LTA for all rainfall units with those to the north being classifies as Normal and those to the south classified as Below Normal.
Soil Moisture Deficit/Recharge Due to the rainfall totals received in November, SMD’s across the area have decreased. However, values are still higher than expected for this time of year and as such are classified as ‘Above Normal’ or ‘Notably High’ in most cases.
River Flows River flows in the northern half of the Area are higher than those in the southern part when compared with the LTAs. In the north, the rivers Ancholme, Lud, Bain and Barling Eau are considered to be ‘Normal’ for this time of year and the rivers Lymn and Steeping and Upper Witham are ‘Below Normal’. In the south, flows in the rivers Welland and Nene are considered to be ‘Notably Low’. At Kate’s Bridge on the river Glen flows were classified as ‘Exceptionally Low’.
Groundwater Levels Due to rainfall totals in November, groundwater levels have fallen at all monitoring sites across the Area with the exception of Dunholm Road, Scothern where levels increased slightly. Levels at most sites are classified as ‘Normal’ when compared to the LTA with the exception of Castlethorpe Bridge, Leasingham Exploratory and Grange Farm, Aswarby. Due to the lower rainfall totals in the central part of the catchment in November, levels at Leasingham and Grange Farm are lower than expected for this time of year and as such are classified as ‘Below Normal’. As in October, levels at Castlethorpe Bridge remain ‘Above Normal’ when compared to the LTA for November.
All data are provisional and may be subject to revision. The views expressed in this document are not necessarily those of the Environment Agency. Its officers, servants or agents accept no liability for any loss or damage arising from the interpretation or use of the information, or reliance upon views contained herein.
© Environment Agency 2017
Reservoir Storage/Water Resource Zone Stocks Water levels in Rutland remain close to the reservoir’s operating curve, whilst water levels at the Hollowell and Ravensthorpe and the Covenham reservoirs remain below their operating curve. Water levels at Pitsford were managed below the operating curve for engineering works. These work are now complete and future opportunities will be maximised to recover storage.
Environmental Impact No fluvial flood warnings or flood alerts were issued during November. The number of abstraction licences subject to restrictions remained at 4. The Slea and the Gwash-Glen augmentation schemes have been operating continuously throughout the month and the Trent, Witham and Ancholme transfer was not required.
Forward Look River flow March 2018: There is a slightly increased probability of Notably Low flows across the river, and there is an increased probability of Exceptionally Low flows in the Upper Nene. June 2018: The forecast shows an increased probability of flows being below Notably Low at Wansford, and an increased probability of Exceptionally Low flows at Northampton.
Groundwater March 2018: The forecast shows an increased probability of levels being Below Normal at Horkstow and Hanthorpe, whilst there is an increased probability of levels being Normal at Grainsby. September 2018: There is an increased probability of Below Normal groundwater levels across the area, but there is a decreased probability of Exceptionally Low and Notably Low groundwater levels in the chalk and a decreased probability of Exceptionally Low levels in the limestone.
Author:
Hydrology and Operations
Contact details: 03708 506506
All data are provisional and may be subject to revision. The views expressed in this document are not necessarily those of the Environment Agency. Its officers, servants or agents accept no liability for any loss or damage arising from the interpretation or use of the information, or reliance upon views contained herein.
© Environment Agency 2017
Rainfall
© Environment Agency 2017
Total Rainfall in Millimetres
Long Term Average Rainfall in Millimetres 1-Month Period for Steeping Great Eau and Long Eau
140
140
120
120
100
100
Rainfall mm
Rainfall mm
1-Month Period for Louth Grimsby and Ancholme
80 60
80 60
40
40
20
20
0
0
120
120
100
100
Rainfall mm
Rainfall mm
1-Month Period for South Forty Foot and Hobhole 140
80 60
80 60
40
40
20
20
0
0
100
100
Rainfall mm
120
80 60
80 60
40
40
20
20
0
0 Sep-17
Aug-17
Jul-17
Jun-17
May-17
Apr-17
Mar-17
Feb-17
Jan-17
Dec-16
Nov-17
Oct-17
Sep-17
Aug-17
Jul-17
Jun-17
May-17
Apr-17
Mar-17
Nov-17
120
Feb-17
Nov-17
140
Jan-17
Oct-17
1-Month Period for Lower Welland and Nene
140
Dec-16
Oct-17
Sep-17
Aug-17
Jul-17
Jun-17
May-17
Apr-17
Mar-17
Feb-17
Jan-17
Dec-16
Nov-17
Oct-17
Sep-17
Aug-17
Jul-17
Jun-17
May-17
Apr-17
Mar-17
Feb-17
Jan-17
Dec-16
1-Month Period for Upper Welland and Nene
Rainfall mm
Nov-17
Oct-17
Sep-17
Aug-17
Jul-17
Jun-17
May-17
Apr-17
Mar-17
Feb-17
Jan-17
Dec-16
Nov-17
Oct-17
Sep-17
Aug-17
Jul-17
Jun-17
May-17
Apr-17
Mar-17
Feb-17
Jan-17
Dec-16
1-Month Period for Witham to Chapel Hill 140
© Environment Agency 2017
Soil Moisture Deficit Ancholme Grimsby Louth
Steeping Great Eau and Long Eau
Ranking derived from data for the period Jan-1961 to Dec-
Ranking derived from data for the period Jan-1961 to Dec2012 0
20
20
40
40
60
60
SMD (mm)
SMD (mm)
2012 0
80 100
100
120
120
140
140 160
160 Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Dec
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Witham to Chapel Hill
South Forty Foot and Hobhole Ranking derived from data for the period Jan-1961 to Dec-
Dec
2012
0
0.00
20
20.00
40
40.00
60
60.00
80 100
80.00 100.00
120
120.00
140
140.00
160
160.00 Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Upper Welland and Nene
Lower Welland and Nene
Ranking derived from data for the period Jan-1961 to Dec-2012
Ranking derived from data for the period Jan-1961 to Dec-2012
0.00
0.00
20.00
20.00
40.00
40.00
60.00
60.00
SMD (mm)
SMD (mm)
Jan
Ranking derived from data for the period Jan-1961 to Dec2012
SMD (mm)
SMD (mm)
80
80.00
Nov
Dec
Nov
Dec
80.00
100.00
100.00
120.00
120.00
140.00
140.00 160.00
160.00 Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
Exceptionally low Above normal -------- 2015 – 2016 data
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Notably low Notably high
Dec
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Below normal Normal Exceptionally high ─── 2016 - 2017 data
© Environment Agency 2017
River Flow
© Environment Agency 2017
Exceptionally high Below normal
Notably high Notably low
Above normal Exceptionally low
Normal ─── Latest data
Louth Weir, LUD
Rase Bishopbridge, ANCHOLME
Ranking derived from data for the period Jul-1968 to Dec-2012
Ranking derived from data for the period Jun-1967 to Dec-2012
2.0
3.0
1.8 2.5
1.4
Flow (cumecs)
Flow (cumecs)
1.6
1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4
2.0
1.5 1.0 0.5
0.2 Apr-17
Jun-17
Aug-17
Oct-17
0.0 Feb-17
Dec-17
Apr-17
Jun-17
Aug-17
Oct-17
Dec-17
Claypole, UPPER WITHAM
Partney, LYMN & STEEPING
Ranking derived from data for the period May-1959 to Dec-2012
Ranking derived from data for the period May-1962 to Dec-2012
8
2.0
7
1.8 1.6
6
Flow (cumecs)
Flow (cumecs)
0.0 Feb-17
5 4 3 2
1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4
1 0 Feb-17
1.4
0.2 Apr-17
Jun-17
Aug-17
Oct-17
0.0 Feb-17
Dec-17
Apr-17
Jun-17
Aug-17
Oct-17
Dec-17
Fulsby and Fulsby Model combined, BAIN
Langworth, BARLINGS EAU
Ranking derived from data for the period Oct-1962 to Dec-2012
Ranking derived from data for the period Jul-1980 to Dec-2012
6
10 9 8
Flow (cumecs)
Flow (cumecs)
5 4
3 2
7
6 5 4 3 2
1
1 Apr-17
Jun-17
Aug-17
Oct-17
0 Feb-17
Dec-17
Apr-17
Jun-17
Aug-17
Oct-17
Dec-17
Ashley, WELLAND
Kates Bridge plus King Street, GLEN
Ranking derived from data for the period Oct-1970 to Dec-2012
Ranking derived from data for the period Jan-1991 to Dec-2012
7
7
6
6
5
5
Flow (cumecs)
Flow (cumecs)
0 Feb-17
4
3 2 1 0 Feb-17
4
3 2 1
Apr-17
Jun-17
Aug-17
Oct-17
Dec-17
0 Feb-17
Apr-17
Jun-17
Aug-17
Oct-17
Dec-17
© Environment Agency 2017
Notably high Notably low
Above normal Exceptionally low
Normal ─── Latest data
Upton Mill Total, NENE - KISLINGBURY BRANCH
St.Andrews total, NENE - BRAMPTON BRANCH
Ranking derived from data for the period Jan-1970 to Dec-2012
Ranking derived from data for the period Jan-1970 to Dec-2012
5
5
5
5
4
4
4
4
Flow (cumecs)
Flow (cumecs)
Exceptionally high Below normal
3 3 2 2
3 3 2 2
1
1
1
1
0 Feb-17
Apr-17
Jun-17
Aug-17
Oct-17
Dec-17
0 Feb-17
Apr-17
Jun-17
Aug-17
Oct-17
Dec-17
© Environment Agency 2017
Groundwater Levels
© Environment Agency 2017
Above normal Exceptionally low
Normal ─── Latest data
Dunholme Rd, Scothern
Castlethorpe Bridge
Ranking derived from data for the period Nov-1979 to Dec-2012
Ranking derived from data for the period Nov-1996 to Dec-2012
3
22
3
21
2
Level (mAOD)
23
20 19 18 17
2 1 1
16
0
15
-1
14 Feb-17
Level (mAOD)
Notably high Notably low
Apr-17
Jun-17
Aug-17
Oct-17
-1 Feb-17
Dec-17
Apr-17
Jun-17
Aug-17
Oct-17
Dec-17
Leasingham Exploratory
Grange Farm, Aswarby
Ranking derived from data for the period Sep-1972 to Dec-2012
Ranking derived from data for the period Dec-1970 to Dec-2012
21
22
19
20
Level (mAOD)
Level (mAOD)
Exceptionally high Below normal
17 15 13 11
9 Feb-17
18 16 14
12 10
Apr-17
Jun-17
Aug-17
Oct-17
8 Feb-17
Dec-17
Apr-17
Jun-17
Aug-17
Oct-17
Dec-17
Greatford, Liffington
Hanthorpe
Ranking derived from data for the period Jul-1974 to Dec-2012
Ranking derived from data for the period Jul-1972 to Dec-2012
17 18 16
Level (mAOD)
Level (mAOD)
15 13 11 9 7
5 Feb-17
14 12 10
8 6
Apr-17
Jun-17
Aug-17
Oct-17
4 Feb-17
Dec-17
Apr-17
Jun-17
Aug-17
Oct-17
Dec-17
Grainsby
Barton Horkstow Road
Ranking derived from data for the period Oct-1977 to Dec-2012
Ranking derived from data for the period Apr-1980 to Dec-2012
8 21
7 6
17
Level (mAOD)
Level (mAOD)
19
15 13 11 9
4 3 2
1
7 5 Feb-17
5
0
Apr-17
Jun-17
Aug-17
Oct-17
Dec-17
-1 Feb-17
Apr-17
Jun-17
Aug-17
Oct-17
Dec-17
© Environment Agency 2017
Reservoir Stocks Covenham
100
100
90
90
Percentage of live capacity
Percentage of live capacity
Rutland
80 70 60 50
40 30 20 10
80 70 60 50 40 30
20 10
0
0 Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
Jan
Apr
Jul
Jan
Oct
Apr
Oct
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
Jul
Oct
Hollowell and Ravensthorpe
100
100
90
90 Percentage of live capacity
Percentage of live capacity
Pitsford
Jul
80 70 60 50 40
30 20 10 0
80 70 60 50 40
30 20 10 0
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
Normal Operating Curve ------
Jan
Apr
2015-2016 ------
Jul
Oct
Jan
Apr
2016-2017 ------
© Environment Agency 2017
Forward Look – River Flows
Probabilistic ensemble projections of river flows at key indicator sites in March 2018 Pie charts indicate probability, based on climatology, of the surface water flow at each site being e.g. exceptionally low for the time of year. (Source: Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Environment Agency) Geological map reproduced with kind permission from UK Groundwater Forum, BGS © NERC. Crown copyright. All rights reserved. Environment Agency, 100026380, 2017.
© Environment Agency 2017
Forward Look – River Flows
Probabilistic ensemble projections of river flows at key indicator sites in June 2018 Pie charts indicate probability, based on climatology, of the surface water flow at each site being e.g. exceptionally low for the time of year. (Source: Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Environment Agency) Geological map reproduced with kind permission from UK Groundwater Forum, BGS © NERC. Crown copyright. All rights reserved. Environment Agency, 100026380, 2017.
© Environment Agency 2017
Forward Look - Groundwater
Probabilistic ensemble projections of groundwater levels at key indicator sites for end of March 2018. Pie charts indicate probability, based on climatology, of the surface water flow at each site being e.g. exceptionally low for the time of year. (Source: Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Environment Agency) Geological map reproduced with kind permission from UK Groundwater Forum, BGS © NERC. Crown copyright. All rights reserved. Environment Agency, 100026380, 2017.
© Environment Agency 2017
Forward Look - Groundwater
Probabilistic ensemble projections of groundwater levels at key indicator sites for end of September 2018. Pie charts indicate probability, based on climatology, of the surface water flow at each site being e.g. exceptionally low for the time of year. (Source: Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Environment Agency) Geological map reproduced with kind permission from UK Groundwater Forum, BGS © NERC. Crown copyright. All rights reserved. Environment Agency, 100026380, 2017.
© Environment Agency 2017
Glossary Term
Definition
Aquifer
A geological formation able to store and transmit water.
Areal average rainfall
The estimated average depth of rainfall over a defined area. Expressed in depth of water (mm).
Artesian
The condition where the groundwater level is above ground surface but is prevented from rising to this level by an overlying continuous low permeability layer, such as clay.
Artesian borehole
Borehole where the level of groundwater is above the top of the borehole and groundwater flows out of the borehole when unsealed.
Cumecs
Cubic metres per second (m 3s-1)
Effective rainfall
The rainfall available to percolate into the soil or produce river flow. Expressed in depth of water (mm).
Flood Alert/Flood Warning
Three levels of warnings may be issued by the Environment Agency. Flood Alerts indicate flooding is possible. Flood Warnings indicate flooding is expected. Severe Flood Warnings indicate severe flooding.
Groundwater
The water found in an aquifer.
Long term average (LTA)
The arithmetic mean calculated from the historic record, usually based on the period 1961-1990. However, the period used may vary by parameter being reported on (see figure captions for details).
mAOD
Metres Above Ordnance Datum (mean sea level at Newlyn Cornwall).
MORECS
Met Office Rainfall and Evaporation Calculation System. Met Office service providing real time calculation of evapotranspiration, soil moisture deficit and effective rainfall on a 40 x 40 km grid.
Naturalised flow
River flow with the impacts of artificial influences removed. Artificial influences may include abstractions, discharges, transfers, augmentation and impoundments.
NCIC
National Climate Information Centre. NCIC area monthly rainfall totals are derived using the Met Office 5 km gridded dataset, which uses rain gauge observations.
Recharge
The process of increasing the water stored in the saturated zone of an aquifer. Expressed in depth of water (mm).
Reservoir gross capacity
The total capacity of a reservoir.
Reservoir live capacity
The capacity of the reservoir that is normally usable for storage to meet established reservoir operating requirements. This excludes any capacity not available for use (e.g. storage held back for emergency services, operating agreements or physical restrictions). May also be referred to as ‘net’ or ‘deployable’ capacity.
Soil moisture deficit (SMD)
The difference between the amount of water actually in the soil and the amount of water the soil can hold. Expressed in depth of water (mm).
Categories Exceptionally high Notably high Above normal Normal Below normal Notably low Exceptionally low
Value likely to fall within this band 5% of the time Value likely to fall within this band 8% of the time Value likely to fall within this band 15% of the time Value likely to fall within this band 44% of the time Value likely to fall within this band 15% of the time Value likely to fall within this band 8% of the time Value likely to fall within this band 5% of the time
© Environment Agency 2017
