Water Situation Report
Monthly water situation report Lincolnshire and Northamptonshire Area Summary – October 2017 The rainfall totals for October were well below the Long Term Average for all rainfall units in the Lincolnshire and Northamptonshire Area and as such are considered to be Notably Low. This lack of rainfall has resulted in an increase in Soil Moisture Deficit (SMD) values across the Area. River flows for most rivers are classified as Normal with the exception of the rivers Lymn, Nene and Glen which are Below Normal. Due to the low rainfall totals, groundwater levels have decreased but all are considered Normal with levels slightly elevated in the north at Castlethorpe Bridge
Rainfall October rainfall totals were well below the Long Term Average (LTA) in all rainfall units and as such were banded as Notably Low. Values are consistent across the whole Area ranging from 27% of the LTA in the Upper Welland and Nene rainfall unit to 38% of the LTA in the Louth, Grimsby and Ancholme rainfall unit. Over the last 6 months the north of the Area has been slightly wetter than the south with rainfall totals nearing or exceeding the LTAs for all rainfall units. Over the last 12 months rainfall totals were close to the LTA for all rainfall units with all classed as Normal except for the Upper Welland and Nene rainfall unit which was considered to be Below Normal.
Soil Moisture Deficit/Recharge Due to the low rainfall totals experienced in October, SMDs across the Area have increased. SMD values remain largest in the Witham to Chapel Hill and South Forty Foot and Hobhole rainfall units with both classed as Above Normal. SMD values in all other rainfall units remain within Normal banding towards the upper end of Normal.
River Flows The monthly average river flows for most rivers across the Area are classified as Normal when compared to the Long Term Averages, with the exception of the Lymn and the Brampton and Kislingbury branches of the Nene which had Below Normal average flows for October. Of those sites where the monthly average flow falls into the Normal banding, the Upper Witham and Welland rivers had monthly average flows that were nearing Below Normal levels. At Kate’s Bridge flows were classified as Notably Low as a result of the historic data used to determine the long term average bandings. This does not represent the situation at Kate’s Bridge and assessment of the flow against those recorded for recent years indicates that flows should be classified as Below Normal.
Groundwater Levels Due to low rainfall totals in October, groundwater levels have reduced at most sites. Groundwater levels (where data is available) across the Area fall within the Normal banding when compared with the LTA. Levels at Castlethorpe Bridge are classed as Above Normal with levels reducing from the Exceptionally High classification at the site in September.
Reservoir Storage/Water Resource Zone Stocks Water levels in Rutland remain close to the reservoir’s operating curve whilst water levels at the Hollowell and Ravensthorpe and the Covenham reservoirs remain below their operating curve. Water levels at Pitsford were managed below the operating curve for engineering works. These work are now complete and future opportunities will be maximised to recover storage.
All data are provisional and may be subject to revision. The views expressed in this document are not necessarily those of the Environment Agency. Its officers, servants or agents accept no liability for any loss or damage arising from the interpretation or use of the information, or reliance upon views contained herein.
© Environment Agency 2017
Environmental Impact No fluvial flood warnings or flood alerts were issued during October. The number of licences subject to cessation notices had increased to 4 by the end of the month. The Slea and the Gwash-Glen augmentation schemes have been operating continuously throughout the month and the Witham to Ancholme transfer was used briefly to raise levels in the Ancholme to allow boats to exit the system.
Forward Look River flow December 2017: The forecast models currently show an increased probability of Notably Low flows March 2018: There is a slightly increased probability of Notably Low flows across the river, and there is an increased probability of Exceptionally Low flows in the Lower Nene. Groundwater March 2018: The forecast shows a decreased probability of Exceptionally Low groundwater levels in the limestone and a decreased probability of Notably Low levels in the chalk. September 2018: There is a slightly increased probability of Below Normal groundwater levels across the area, but there is a decreased probability of Exceptionally Low groundwater levels in the limestone and a decreased probability of Notably Low levels in the limestone. Author:
Hydrology and Operations
Contact details: 03708 506506
All data are provisional and may be subject to revision. The views expressed in this document are not necessarily those of the Environment Agency. Its officers, servants or agents accept no liability for any loss or damage arising from the interpretation or use of the information, or reliance upon views contained herein.
© Environment Agency 2017
Rainfall
© Environment Agency 2017
Total Rainfall in Millimetres
Long Term Average Rainfall in Millimetres 1-Month Period for Steeping Great Eau and Long Eau
140
140
120
120
100
100
Rainfall mm
Rainfall mm
1-Month Period for Louth Grimsby and Ancholme
80 60
80 60
40
40
20
20
0
0
120
120
100
100
Rainfall mm
Rainfall mm
1-Month Period for South Forty Foot and Hobhole 140
80 60
80 60
40
40
20
20
0
0
100
100
Rainfall mm
120
80 60
80 60
40
40
20
20
0
0 Aug-17
Jul-17
Jun-17
May-17
Apr-17
Mar-17
Feb-17
Jan-17
Dec-16
Nov-16
Oct-17
Sep-17
Aug-17
Jul-17
Jun-17
May-17
Apr-17
Mar-17
Feb-17
Oct-17
120
Jan-17
Oct-17
140
Dec-16
Sep-17
1-Month Period for Lower Welland and Nene
140
Nov-16
Sep-17
Aug-17
Jul-17
Jun-17
May-17
Apr-17
Mar-17
Feb-17
Jan-17
Dec-16
Nov-16
Oct-17
Sep-17
Aug-17
Jul-17
Jun-17
May-17
Apr-17
Mar-17
Feb-17
Jan-17
Dec-16
Nov-16
1-Month Period for Upper Welland and Nene
Rainfall mm
Oct-17
Sep-17
Aug-17
Jul-17
Jun-17
May-17
Apr-17
Mar-17
Feb-17
Jan-17
Dec-16
Nov-16
Oct-17
Sep-17
Aug-17
Jul-17
Jun-17
May-17
Apr-17
Mar-17
Feb-17
Jan-17
Dec-16
Nov-16
1-Month Period for Witham to Chapel Hill 140
© Environment Agency 2017
Soil Moisture Deficit
Exceptionally low Above normal -------- 2015 – 2016 data
Notably low Notably high
Below normal Normal Exceptionally high ─── 2016 - 2017 data
© Environment Agency 2017
River Flow
© Environment Agency 2017
Exceptionally high Below normal
Notably high Notably low
Above normal Exceptionally low
Normal ─── Latest data
Louth Weir, LUD
Rase Bishopbridge, ANCHOLME
Ranking derived from data for the period Jul-1968 to Dec-2012
Ranking derived from data for the period Jun-1967 to Dec-2012
2.0
3.0
1.8 2.5
1.4
Flow (cumecs)
Flow (cumecs)
1.6
1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4
2.0
1.5 1.0 0.5
0.2 Mar-17
May-17
Jul-17
Sep-17
0.0 Jan-17
Nov-17
Mar-17
May-17
Jul-17
Sep-17
Nov-17
Claypole, UPPER WITHAM
Partney, LYMN & STEEPING
Ranking derived from data for the period May-1959 to Dec-2012
Ranking derived from data for the period May-1962 to Dec-2012
8
2.0
7
1.8 1.6
6
Flow (cumecs)
Flow (cumecs)
0.0 Jan-17
5 4 3 2
1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4
1 0 Jan-17
1.4
0.2 Mar-17
May-17
Jul-17
Sep-17
0.0 Jan-17
Nov-17
Mar-17
May-17
Jul-17
Sep-17
Nov-17
Fulsby and Fulsby Model combined, BAIN
Langworth, BARLINGS EAU
Ranking derived from data for the period Oct-1962 to Dec-2012
Ranking derived from data for the period Jul-1980 to Dec-2012
6
10 9 8
Flow (cumecs)
Flow (cumecs)
5 4
3 2
7
6 5 4 3 2
1
1 Mar-17
May-17
Jul-17
Sep-17
0 Jan-17
Nov-17
Mar-17
May-17
Jul-17
Sep-17
Nov-17
Ashley, WELLAND
Kates Bridge plus King Street, GLEN
Ranking derived from data for the period Oct-1970 to Dec-2012
Ranking derived from data for the period Jan-1991 to Dec-2012
7
7
6
6
5
5
Flow (cumecs)
Flow (cumecs)
0 Jan-17
4
3 2 1 0 Jan-17
4
3 2 1
Mar-17
May-17
Jul-17
Sep-17
Nov-17
0 Jan-17
Mar-17
May-17
Jul-17
Sep-17
Nov-17
© Environment Agency 2017
Notably high Notably low
Above normal Exceptionally low
Normal ─── Latest data
Upton Mill Total, NENE - KISLINGBURY BRANCH
St.Andrews total, NENE - BRAMPTON BRANCH
Ranking derived from data for the period Jan-1970 to Dec-2012
Ranking derived from data for the period Jan-1970 to Dec-2012
5
5
5
5
4
4
4
4
Flow (cumecs)
Flow (cumecs)
Exceptionally high Below normal
3 3 2 2
3 3 2 2
1
1
1
1
0 Jan-17
Mar-17
May-17
Jul-17
Sep-17
Nov-17
0 Jan-17
Mar-17
May-17
Jul-17
Sep-17
Nov-17
© Environment Agency 2017
Groundwater Levels
© Environment Agency 2017
Above normal Exceptionally low
Normal ─── Latest data
Dunholme Rd, Scothern
Castlethorpe Bridge
Ranking derived from data for the period Nov-1979 to Dec-2012
Ranking derived from data for the period Nov-1996 to Dec-2012
3
22
3
21
2
Level (mAOD)
23
20 19 18 17
2 1 1
16
0
15
-1
14 Jan-17
Level (mAOD)
Notably high Notably low
Mar-17
May-17
Jul-17
Sep-17
-1 Jan-17
Nov-17
Mar-17
May-17
Jul-17
Sep-17
Nov-17
Leasingham Exploratory
Grange Farm, Aswarby
Ranking derived from data for the period Sep-1972 to Dec-2012
Ranking derived from data for the period Dec-1970 to Dec-2012
21
22
19
20
Level (mAOD)
Level (mAOD)
Exceptionally high Below normal
17 15 13 11
9 Jan-17
18 16 14
12 10
Mar-17
May-17
Jul-17
Sep-17
8 Jan-17
Nov-17
Mar-17
May-17
Jul-17
Sep-17
Nov-17
Greatford, Liffington
Hanthorpe
Ranking derived from data for the period Jul-1974 to Dec-2012
Ranking derived from data for the period Jul-1972 to Dec-2012
17 18 16
Level (mAOD)
Level (mAOD)
15 13 11 9 7
5 Jan-17
14 12 10
8 6
Mar-17
May-17
Jul-17
Sep-17
4 Jan-17
Nov-17
Mar-17
May-17
Jul-17
Sep-17
Nov-17
Grainsby
Barton Horkstow Road
Ranking derived from data for the period Oct-1977 to Dec-2012
Ranking derived from data for the period Apr-1980 to Dec-2012
8 21
7 6
17
Level (mAOD)
Level (mAOD)
19
15 13 11 9
4 3 2
1
7 5 Jan-17
5
0
Mar-17
May-17
Jul-17
Sep-17
Nov-17
-1 Jan-17
Mar-17
May-17
Jul-17
Sep-17
Nov-17
© Environment Agency 2017
Reservoir Stocks Covenham
100
100
90
90
Percentage of live capacity
Percentage of live capacity
Rutland
80 70 60 50
40 30 20 10
80 70 60 50 40 30
20 10
0
0 Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
Jan
Apr
Jul
Jan
Oct
Apr
Oct
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
Jul
Oct
Hollowell and Ravensthorpe
100
100
90
90 Percentage of live capacity
Percentage of live capacity
Pitsford
Jul
80 70 60 50 40
30 20 10 0
80 70 60 50 40
30 20 10 0
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
Normal Operating Curve ------
Jan
Apr
2015-2016 ------
Jul
Oct
Jan
Apr
2016-2017 ------
© Environment Agency 2017
Forward Look – River Flows
Pie charts indicate probability, based on climatology, of the surface water flow at each site being e.g. exceptionally low for the time of year. (Source: Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Environment Agency) Geological map reproduced with kind permission from UK Groundwater Forum, BGS © NERC. Crown copyright. All rights reserved. Environment Agency, 100026380, 2017.
© Environment Agency 2017
Forward Look – River Flows
Pie charts indicate probability, based on climatology, of the surface water flow at each site being e.g. exceptionally low for the time of year. (Source: Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Environment Agency) Geological map reproduced with kind permission from UK Groundwater Forum, BGS © NERC. Crown copyright. All rights reserved. Environment Agency, 100026380, 2017.
© Environment Agency 2017
Forward Look - Groundwater
Pie charts indicate probability, based on climatology, of the surface water flow at each site being e.g. exceptionally low for the time of year. (Source: Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Environment Agency) Geological map reproduced with kind permission from UK Groundwater Forum, BGS © NERC. Crown copyright. All rights reserved. Environment Agency, 100026380, 2017.
© Environment Agency 2017
Forward Look - Groundwater
Pie charts indicate probability, based on climatology, of the surface water flow at each site being e.g. exceptionally low for the time of year. (Source: Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Environment Agency) Geological map reproduced with kind permission from UK Groundwater Forum, BGS © NERC. Crown copyright. All rights reserved. Environment Agency, 100026380, 2017.
© Environment Agency 2017
Glossary Term
Definition
Aquifer
A geological formation able to store and transmit water.
Areal average rainfall
The estimated average depth of rainfall over a defined area. Expressed in depth of water (mm).
Artesian
The condition where the groundwater level is above ground surface but is prevented from rising to this level by an overlying continuous low permeability layer, such as clay.
Artesian borehole
Borehole where the level of groundwater is above the top of the borehole and groundwater flows out of the borehole when unsealed.
Cumecs
Cubic metres per second (m 3s-1)
Effective rainfall
The rainfall available to percolate into the soil or produce river flow. Expressed in depth of water (mm).
Flood Alert/Flood Warning
Three levels of warnings may be issued by the Environment Agency. Flood Alerts indicate flooding is possible. Flood Warnings indicate flooding is expected. Severe Flood Warnings indicate severe flooding.
Groundwater
The water found in an aquifer.
Long term average (LTA)
The arithmetic mean calculated from the historic record, usually based on the period 1961-1990. However, the period used may vary by parameter being reported on (see figure captions for details).
mAOD
Metres Above Ordnance Datum (mean sea level at Newlyn Cornwall).
MORECS
Met Office Rainfall and Evaporation Calculation System. Met Office service providing real time calculation of evapotranspiration, soil moisture deficit and effective rainfall on a 40 x 40 km grid.
Naturalised flow
River flow with the impacts of artificial influences removed. Artificial influences may include abstractions, discharges, transfers, augmentation and impoundments.
NCIC
National Climate Information Centre. NCIC area monthly rainfall totals are derived using the Met Office 5 km gridded dataset, which uses rain gauge observations.
Recharge
The process of increasing the water stored in the saturated zone of an aquifer. Expressed in depth of water (mm).
Reservoir gross capacity
The total capacity of a reservoir.
Reservoir live capacity
The capacity of the reservoir that is normally usable for storage to meet established reservoir operating requirements. This excludes any capacity not available for use (e.g. storage held back for emergency services, operating agreements or physical restrictions). May also be referred to as ‘net’ or ‘deployable’ capacity.
Soil moisture deficit (SMD)
The difference between the amount of water actually in the soil and the amount of water the soil can hold. Expressed in depth of water (mm).
Categories Exceptionally high Notably high Above normal Normal Below normal Notably low Exceptionally low
Value likely to fall within this band 5% of the time Value likely to fall within this band 8% of the time Value likely to fall within this band 15% of the time Value likely to fall within this band 44% of the time Value likely to fall within this band 15% of the time Value likely to fall within this band 8% of the time Value likely to fall within this band 5% of the time
© Environment Agency 2017
Rainfall October rainfall totals were well below the Long Term Average (LTA) in all rainfall units and as such were banded as Notably Low. Values are consistent across the whole Area ranging from 27% of the LTA in the Upper Welland and Nene rainfall unit to 38% of the LTA in the Louth, Grimsby and Ancholme rainfall unit. Over the last 6 months the north of the Area has been slightly wetter than the south with rainfall totals nearing or exceeding the LTAs for all rainfall units. Over the last 12 months rainfall totals were close to the LTA for all rainfall units with all classed as Normal except for the Upper Welland and Nene rainfall unit which was considered to be Below Normal.
Soil Moisture Deficit/Recharge Due to the low rainfall totals experienced in October, SMDs across the Area have increased. SMD values remain largest in the Witham to Chapel Hill and South Forty Foot and Hobhole rainfall units with both classed as Above Normal. SMD values in all other rainfall units remain within Normal banding towards the upper end of Normal.
River Flows The monthly average river flows for most rivers across the Area are classified as Normal when compared to the Long Term Averages, with the exception of the Lymn and the Brampton and Kislingbury branches of the Nene which had Below Normal average flows for October. Of those sites where the monthly average flow falls into the Normal banding, the Upper Witham and Welland rivers had monthly average flows that were nearing Below Normal levels. At Kate’s Bridge flows were classified as Notably Low as a result of the historic data used to determine the long term average bandings. This does not represent the situation at Kate’s Bridge and assessment of the flow against those recorded for recent years indicates that flows should be classified as Below Normal.
Groundwater Levels Due to low rainfall totals in October, groundwater levels have reduced at most sites. Groundwater levels (where data is available) across the Area fall within the Normal banding when compared with the LTA. Levels at Castlethorpe Bridge are classed as Above Normal with levels reducing from the Exceptionally High classification at the site in September.
Reservoir Storage/Water Resource Zone Stocks Water levels in Rutland remain close to the reservoir’s operating curve whilst water levels at the Hollowell and Ravensthorpe and the Covenham reservoirs remain below their operating curve. Water levels at Pitsford were managed below the operating curve for engineering works. These work are now complete and future opportunities will be maximised to recover storage.
All data are provisional and may be subject to revision. The views expressed in this document are not necessarily those of the Environment Agency. Its officers, servants or agents accept no liability for any loss or damage arising from the interpretation or use of the information, or reliance upon views contained herein.
© Environment Agency 2017
Environmental Impact No fluvial flood warnings or flood alerts were issued during October. The number of licences subject to cessation notices had increased to 4 by the end of the month. The Slea and the Gwash-Glen augmentation schemes have been operating continuously throughout the month and the Witham to Ancholme transfer was used briefly to raise levels in the Ancholme to allow boats to exit the system.
Forward Look River flow December 2017: The forecast models currently show an increased probability of Notably Low flows March 2018: There is a slightly increased probability of Notably Low flows across the river, and there is an increased probability of Exceptionally Low flows in the Lower Nene. Groundwater March 2018: The forecast shows a decreased probability of Exceptionally Low groundwater levels in the limestone and a decreased probability of Notably Low levels in the chalk. September 2018: There is a slightly increased probability of Below Normal groundwater levels across the area, but there is a decreased probability of Exceptionally Low groundwater levels in the limestone and a decreased probability of Notably Low levels in the limestone. Author:
Hydrology and Operations
Contact details: 03708 506506
All data are provisional and may be subject to revision. The views expressed in this document are not necessarily those of the Environment Agency. Its officers, servants or agents accept no liability for any loss or damage arising from the interpretation or use of the information, or reliance upon views contained herein.
© Environment Agency 2017
Rainfall
© Environment Agency 2017
Total Rainfall in Millimetres
Long Term Average Rainfall in Millimetres 1-Month Period for Steeping Great Eau and Long Eau
140
140
120
120
100
100
Rainfall mm
Rainfall mm
1-Month Period for Louth Grimsby and Ancholme
80 60
80 60
40
40
20
20
0
0
120
120
100
100
Rainfall mm
Rainfall mm
1-Month Period for South Forty Foot and Hobhole 140
80 60
80 60
40
40
20
20
0
0
100
100
Rainfall mm
120
80 60
80 60
40
40
20
20
0
0 Aug-17
Jul-17
Jun-17
May-17
Apr-17
Mar-17
Feb-17
Jan-17
Dec-16
Nov-16
Oct-17
Sep-17
Aug-17
Jul-17
Jun-17
May-17
Apr-17
Mar-17
Feb-17
Oct-17
120
Jan-17
Oct-17
140
Dec-16
Sep-17
1-Month Period for Lower Welland and Nene
140
Nov-16
Sep-17
Aug-17
Jul-17
Jun-17
May-17
Apr-17
Mar-17
Feb-17
Jan-17
Dec-16
Nov-16
Oct-17
Sep-17
Aug-17
Jul-17
Jun-17
May-17
Apr-17
Mar-17
Feb-17
Jan-17
Dec-16
Nov-16
1-Month Period for Upper Welland and Nene
Rainfall mm
Oct-17
Sep-17
Aug-17
Jul-17
Jun-17
May-17
Apr-17
Mar-17
Feb-17
Jan-17
Dec-16
Nov-16
Oct-17
Sep-17
Aug-17
Jul-17
Jun-17
May-17
Apr-17
Mar-17
Feb-17
Jan-17
Dec-16
Nov-16
1-Month Period for Witham to Chapel Hill 140
© Environment Agency 2017
Soil Moisture Deficit
Exceptionally low Above normal -------- 2015 – 2016 data
Notably low Notably high
Below normal Normal Exceptionally high ─── 2016 - 2017 data
© Environment Agency 2017
River Flow
© Environment Agency 2017
Exceptionally high Below normal
Notably high Notably low
Above normal Exceptionally low
Normal ─── Latest data
Louth Weir, LUD
Rase Bishopbridge, ANCHOLME
Ranking derived from data for the period Jul-1968 to Dec-2012
Ranking derived from data for the period Jun-1967 to Dec-2012
2.0
3.0
1.8 2.5
1.4
Flow (cumecs)
Flow (cumecs)
1.6
1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4
2.0
1.5 1.0 0.5
0.2 Mar-17
May-17
Jul-17
Sep-17
0.0 Jan-17
Nov-17
Mar-17
May-17
Jul-17
Sep-17
Nov-17
Claypole, UPPER WITHAM
Partney, LYMN & STEEPING
Ranking derived from data for the period May-1959 to Dec-2012
Ranking derived from data for the period May-1962 to Dec-2012
8
2.0
7
1.8 1.6
6
Flow (cumecs)
Flow (cumecs)
0.0 Jan-17
5 4 3 2
1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4
1 0 Jan-17
1.4
0.2 Mar-17
May-17
Jul-17
Sep-17
0.0 Jan-17
Nov-17
Mar-17
May-17
Jul-17
Sep-17
Nov-17
Fulsby and Fulsby Model combined, BAIN
Langworth, BARLINGS EAU
Ranking derived from data for the period Oct-1962 to Dec-2012
Ranking derived from data for the period Jul-1980 to Dec-2012
6
10 9 8
Flow (cumecs)
Flow (cumecs)
5 4
3 2
7
6 5 4 3 2
1
1 Mar-17
May-17
Jul-17
Sep-17
0 Jan-17
Nov-17
Mar-17
May-17
Jul-17
Sep-17
Nov-17
Ashley, WELLAND
Kates Bridge plus King Street, GLEN
Ranking derived from data for the period Oct-1970 to Dec-2012
Ranking derived from data for the period Jan-1991 to Dec-2012
7
7
6
6
5
5
Flow (cumecs)
Flow (cumecs)
0 Jan-17
4
3 2 1 0 Jan-17
4
3 2 1
Mar-17
May-17
Jul-17
Sep-17
Nov-17
0 Jan-17
Mar-17
May-17
Jul-17
Sep-17
Nov-17
© Environment Agency 2017
Notably high Notably low
Above normal Exceptionally low
Normal ─── Latest data
Upton Mill Total, NENE - KISLINGBURY BRANCH
St.Andrews total, NENE - BRAMPTON BRANCH
Ranking derived from data for the period Jan-1970 to Dec-2012
Ranking derived from data for the period Jan-1970 to Dec-2012
5
5
5
5
4
4
4
4
Flow (cumecs)
Flow (cumecs)
Exceptionally high Below normal
3 3 2 2
3 3 2 2
1
1
1
1
0 Jan-17
Mar-17
May-17
Jul-17
Sep-17
Nov-17
0 Jan-17
Mar-17
May-17
Jul-17
Sep-17
Nov-17
© Environment Agency 2017
Groundwater Levels
© Environment Agency 2017
Above normal Exceptionally low
Normal ─── Latest data
Dunholme Rd, Scothern
Castlethorpe Bridge
Ranking derived from data for the period Nov-1979 to Dec-2012
Ranking derived from data for the period Nov-1996 to Dec-2012
3
22
3
21
2
Level (mAOD)
23
20 19 18 17
2 1 1
16
0
15
-1
14 Jan-17
Level (mAOD)
Notably high Notably low
Mar-17
May-17
Jul-17
Sep-17
-1 Jan-17
Nov-17
Mar-17
May-17
Jul-17
Sep-17
Nov-17
Leasingham Exploratory
Grange Farm, Aswarby
Ranking derived from data for the period Sep-1972 to Dec-2012
Ranking derived from data for the period Dec-1970 to Dec-2012
21
22
19
20
Level (mAOD)
Level (mAOD)
Exceptionally high Below normal
17 15 13 11
9 Jan-17
18 16 14
12 10
Mar-17
May-17
Jul-17
Sep-17
8 Jan-17
Nov-17
Mar-17
May-17
Jul-17
Sep-17
Nov-17
Greatford, Liffington
Hanthorpe
Ranking derived from data for the period Jul-1974 to Dec-2012
Ranking derived from data for the period Jul-1972 to Dec-2012
17 18 16
Level (mAOD)
Level (mAOD)
15 13 11 9 7
5 Jan-17
14 12 10
8 6
Mar-17
May-17
Jul-17
Sep-17
4 Jan-17
Nov-17
Mar-17
May-17
Jul-17
Sep-17
Nov-17
Grainsby
Barton Horkstow Road
Ranking derived from data for the period Oct-1977 to Dec-2012
Ranking derived from data for the period Apr-1980 to Dec-2012
8 21
7 6
17
Level (mAOD)
Level (mAOD)
19
15 13 11 9
4 3 2
1
7 5 Jan-17
5
0
Mar-17
May-17
Jul-17
Sep-17
Nov-17
-1 Jan-17
Mar-17
May-17
Jul-17
Sep-17
Nov-17
© Environment Agency 2017
Reservoir Stocks Covenham
100
100
90
90
Percentage of live capacity
Percentage of live capacity
Rutland
80 70 60 50
40 30 20 10
80 70 60 50 40 30
20 10
0
0 Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
Jan
Apr
Jul
Jan
Oct
Apr
Oct
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
Jul
Oct
Hollowell and Ravensthorpe
100
100
90
90 Percentage of live capacity
Percentage of live capacity
Pitsford
Jul
80 70 60 50 40
30 20 10 0
80 70 60 50 40
30 20 10 0
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
Normal Operating Curve ------
Jan
Apr
2015-2016 ------
Jul
Oct
Jan
Apr
2016-2017 ------
© Environment Agency 2017
Forward Look – River Flows
Pie charts indicate probability, based on climatology, of the surface water flow at each site being e.g. exceptionally low for the time of year. (Source: Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Environment Agency) Geological map reproduced with kind permission from UK Groundwater Forum, BGS © NERC. Crown copyright. All rights reserved. Environment Agency, 100026380, 2017.
© Environment Agency 2017
Forward Look – River Flows
Pie charts indicate probability, based on climatology, of the surface water flow at each site being e.g. exceptionally low for the time of year. (Source: Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Environment Agency) Geological map reproduced with kind permission from UK Groundwater Forum, BGS © NERC. Crown copyright. All rights reserved. Environment Agency, 100026380, 2017.
© Environment Agency 2017
Forward Look - Groundwater
Pie charts indicate probability, based on climatology, of the surface water flow at each site being e.g. exceptionally low for the time of year. (Source: Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Environment Agency) Geological map reproduced with kind permission from UK Groundwater Forum, BGS © NERC. Crown copyright. All rights reserved. Environment Agency, 100026380, 2017.
© Environment Agency 2017
Forward Look - Groundwater
Pie charts indicate probability, based on climatology, of the surface water flow at each site being e.g. exceptionally low for the time of year. (Source: Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Environment Agency) Geological map reproduced with kind permission from UK Groundwater Forum, BGS © NERC. Crown copyright. All rights reserved. Environment Agency, 100026380, 2017.
© Environment Agency 2017
Glossary Term
Definition
Aquifer
A geological formation able to store and transmit water.
Areal average rainfall
The estimated average depth of rainfall over a defined area. Expressed in depth of water (mm).
Artesian
The condition where the groundwater level is above ground surface but is prevented from rising to this level by an overlying continuous low permeability layer, such as clay.
Artesian borehole
Borehole where the level of groundwater is above the top of the borehole and groundwater flows out of the borehole when unsealed.
Cumecs
Cubic metres per second (m 3s-1)
Effective rainfall
The rainfall available to percolate into the soil or produce river flow. Expressed in depth of water (mm).
Flood Alert/Flood Warning
Three levels of warnings may be issued by the Environment Agency. Flood Alerts indicate flooding is possible. Flood Warnings indicate flooding is expected. Severe Flood Warnings indicate severe flooding.
Groundwater
The water found in an aquifer.
Long term average (LTA)
The arithmetic mean calculated from the historic record, usually based on the period 1961-1990. However, the period used may vary by parameter being reported on (see figure captions for details).
mAOD
Metres Above Ordnance Datum (mean sea level at Newlyn Cornwall).
MORECS
Met Office Rainfall and Evaporation Calculation System. Met Office service providing real time calculation of evapotranspiration, soil moisture deficit and effective rainfall on a 40 x 40 km grid.
Naturalised flow
River flow with the impacts of artificial influences removed. Artificial influences may include abstractions, discharges, transfers, augmentation and impoundments.
NCIC
National Climate Information Centre. NCIC area monthly rainfall totals are derived using the Met Office 5 km gridded dataset, which uses rain gauge observations.
Recharge
The process of increasing the water stored in the saturated zone of an aquifer. Expressed in depth of water (mm).
Reservoir gross capacity
The total capacity of a reservoir.
Reservoir live capacity
The capacity of the reservoir that is normally usable for storage to meet established reservoir operating requirements. This excludes any capacity not available for use (e.g. storage held back for emergency services, operating agreements or physical restrictions). May also be referred to as ‘net’ or ‘deployable’ capacity.
Soil moisture deficit (SMD)
The difference between the amount of water actually in the soil and the amount of water the soil can hold. Expressed in depth of water (mm).
Categories Exceptionally high Notably high Above normal Normal Below normal Notably low Exceptionally low
Value likely to fall within this band 5% of the time Value likely to fall within this band 8% of the time Value likely to fall within this band 15% of the time Value likely to fall within this band 44% of the time Value likely to fall within this band 15% of the time Value likely to fall within this band 8% of the time Value likely to fall within this band 5% of the time
© Environment Agency 2017
