Agendas Online Attachment - Whangarei District Council
APPENDICES
Whangarei District Growth Model 1. Glossary of Terms District Plan Environments The current environments in the District Plan relating to this study are: Residential Environments: • Living 1 – The general urban areas of the District. Land can be subdivided down to a minimum of 500m 2 , where connection is available to reticulated wastewater services. •
Living 2 – High density residential areas close to CBD. Land can be subdivided down to a minimum of 350m 2, where connection is available to reticulated wastewater services.
•
Living 3 – Areas where development is restricted due to physical nature, lack of infrastructure or other values. Land can be subdivided down to a minimum of 2,000m 2 .
Business Environments: • Business 1 – Central Business District (CBD). Land can be subdivided down to a minimum of 100m 2 . •
Business 2 – Areas that fringe the CBD and includes light industry. Land can be subdivided down to a minimum of 300m2 .
•
Business 3 – Shopping centres outside the CBD and close to Living Environments. Land can be subdivided down to a minimum of 100m 2 .
•
Business 4 – Heavy industrial areas. Land can be subdivided down to a minimum of 1,000m 2 .
Compound annual growth Rate Compound annual growth Rate (CAGR) or cumulative annual growth rate is another term for the rate of return or interest rate variable in the formula Present value of a dollar and Future value of a dollar discussed at time value of money. It measures the rate of change in a value between two points in time(t and t 0 )..
In business, CAGR is used to describe the growth over a period of time of some element of the business, usually revenue, although other measures may be used (such as the number of units delivered, registered users, etc.). CAGR is not an accounting term, but remains widely used, particularly in growth industries. CAGR is preferable to applying more simplistic terms, such as "business doubled in three years", as it properly accounts for the effect of compounding. Linear Regression In statistics, linear regression is a regression method that models the relationship between a dependent variable Y, independent variables Xi, i = 1, ..., p, and a random term ε. The model can be written as
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Whangarei District Growth Model where β1 is the intercept ("constant" term), the βis are the respective parameters of independent variables, and p is the number of parameters to be estimated in the linear regression. Linear regression can be contrasted with nonlinear regression. This method is called "linear" because the relation of the response (the dependent variable Y) to the independent variables is assumed to be a linear function of the parameters. It is often erroneously thought that the reason the technique is called "linear regression" is that the graph of Y = β0 + βx is a straight line or that Y is a linear function of the X variables. But if the model is (for example) the problem is still one of linear regression, that is, linear in x and x2 respectively, even though the graph on x by itself is not a straight line. Trend Line A trend line represents a trend, the long-term movement in time series data after other components have been accounted for. It tells whether a particular data set (say GDP, oil prices or stock prices) have increased or decreased over the period of time. A trend line could simply be drawn by eye through a set of data points, but more properly their position and slope is calculated using statistical techniques like linear regression. Trend lines typically are straight lines, although some variations use higher degree polynomials depending on the degree of curvature desired in the line. Trend lines are sometimes used in business analytics to show changes in data over time. This has the advantage of being simple. Trend lines are often used to argue that a particular action or event (such as training, or an advertising campaign) caused observed changes at a point in time. This is a simple technique, and does not require a control group, experimental design, or a sophisticated analysis technique. Area Unit
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Area units are aggregations of meshblocks with unique names. They are non-administrative areas intermediate between meshblocks and territorial authorities. Area units must either define or aggregate to define urban areas, rural centres, statistical areas, territorial authorities and regional councils. Each area unit must be a single geographic entity with a unique name. Area units of main or secondary urban areas generally coincide with communities of interest or parts thereof. Area units within urban areas normally contain 3,000-5,000 population.
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Figure 24 Vinetown Area Unit
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Whangarei District Growth Model Meshblock
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LW YN AV E
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The meshblock is the smallest geographic unit for which statistical data is collected and processed by Statistics New Zealand. A meshblock is a defined geographic area, varying in size from part of a city block to large areas of rural land. Each meshblock abuts against another to form a network covering all of New Zealand including coasts and inlets, and extending out to the two hundred mile economic zone. Meshblocks are added together to ‘build up’ larger geographic areas such as area units and urban areas. They are also the principal unit used to draw-up and define electoral district and local authority boundaries.
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Figure 25 Meshblocks within the Vinetown Area Unit For the purpose of this study, the Meshblocks within following Area Units were assessed for their growth and capacity:
Abbey Caves Bream Head Hikurangi Horahora Kamo East Kamo West Kensington Mairtown Marsden Point-Ruakaka Maungatapere Maunu Morningside Ngunguru
Onerahi Opouteke-Tanekaha Otaika-Portland Otangarei Parahaki Port-Limeburners Punaruku-Kiripaka Raumanga East Raumanga West Regent Riverside Sherwood Rise Springs Flat
Te Hihi Three Mile Bush Tikipunga East Tikipunga West Vinetown Waiotira-Springfield Waipu Western Hills Whangarei Central Wharekohe-Oakleigh Whau Valley Woodhill
Occupied Dwelling A dwelling is defined as occupied if it is: Occupied at midnight on the night of the data collection; or Occupied at any time during the twelve hours following midnight on the night of the data collection unless the occupant(s) completed a questionnaire at another dwelling during this period. A dwelling is defined for all other surveys, as occupied if it is: Occupied during the period of data collection. Created 9 March 2007 Updated 18 January 2008
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Whangarei District Growth Model Unoccupied Dwelling A dwelling is defined as unoccupied if it is: Unoccupied at all times during the twelve hours following midnight on the night of the data collection; and is Suitable for habitation. Usually Resident Population Count A count of all people who usually live in a given area, and are present in New Zealand, on a given census night. The census usually resident population count of New Zealand excludes visitors from overseas and excludes New Zealand residents who are temporarily overseas. For a http://www2.stats.govt.nz/domino/external/omni/omni.nsf/55552a258bc2e5514c25689b0018524c/38 70f9cdf55ef316cc256c5c0005f5b1?OpenDocumentsubnational area the count excludes visitors from overseas and elsewhere in New Zealand (people who do not usually live in that area), but includes residents of that area who are temporarily elsewhere in New Zealand on census night (people who usually live in that area but are absent). Residents are counted at the meshblock (smallest geographic area for statistical purposes) of their usual address. If insufficient information about a person's usual address is given, then the geographic information that is available is used to select (impute) a meshblock within that area. Census Night Population Count A count of all people who usually live in a given area, and are present in New Zealand, on a given census night. The census usually resident population count of New Zealand excludes visitors from overseas and excludes New Zealand residents who are temporarily overseas. For a http://www2.stats.govt.nz/domino/external/omni/omni.nsf/55552a258bc2e5514c25689b0018524c/38 70f9cdf55ef316cc256c5c0005f5b1?OpenDocumentsubnational area the count excludes visitors from overseas and elsewhere in New Zealand (people who do not usually live in that area), but includes residents of that area who are temporarily elsewhere in New Zealand on census night (people who usually live in that area but are absent). Residents are counted at the meshblock (smallest geographic area for statistical purposes) of their usual address. If insufficient information about a person's usual address is given, then the geographic information that is available is used to select (impute) a meshblock within that area.
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Whangarei District Growth Model 2. Statistics New Zealand Projection Methodology Introduction Demographic projections are neither predictions nor forecasts. They represent the statistical outcomes of various combinations of selected assumptions about future changes in various dynamics of population change. These assumptions are formulated from the latest demographic trends and patterns, as well as international experiences. Given the uncertainties about future trends in fertility, mortality and migration and their determinants, Statistics New Zealand derives a range of alternative demographic scenarios. However, because of space restrictions, in each case only one series has been cited here. In general, the chosen series conveys the broad features of likely future dynamics and patterns. Projections do not take into account non-demographic factors such as war and catastrophe that may invalidate the projections. Population trends and patterns are monitored regularly and, when it is necessary, the projections are revised to incorporate new demographic evidence. In summary, the main prospects in the coming decades are for continuing low fertility, slower population growth, further longevity gains, smaller households, increasing ethnic diversity, an ageing population, an older labour force, and a further concentration of population in the northern North Island. Notes: Derived figures such as percentage changes have been produced using data of greater precision than what is published. The figures may differ slightly from those derived using rounded data. All projection data has a reference date of 30 June. Subnational Population Projections, 2001(base)–2026 In addition to the national projections, Statistics New Zealand produces population projections for various subnational areas. The latest projections of the population living in subnational areas was released in February 2005 and covers the 16 regional council and 74 territorial authority areas of New Zealand. Three alternative projection series (designated low, medium and high) were produced for each area incorporating different fertility, mortality and migration assumptions reflecting each area's unique socio-demographic characteristics. The following results are based on the medium series. Of New Zealand's 74 territorial authorities, 39 are projected to have more people in 2026 than in 2001. However population growth will generally slow over the projection period. While 48 territorial authorities are projected in increase in population between 2001 and 2006, this will reduce to 33 between 2021 and 2026. An important factor in the slowing of population growth is the narrowing gap between births and deaths. Nationally, natural increase (births minus deaths) is projected to decrease from 141,000 in the five years ended June 2006 to 86,000 during 2022–2026. Just 13 territorial authorities are projected to have more births in 2022-2026 than in 2002-2006. In contrast, the number of deaths is expected to increase in almost all territorial authorities, because of the increasing number of people born after World War II reaching the older ages. While three territorial authorities (Horowhenua, Waimate and Waitaki districts) experienced more deaths than births in the five years ended December 2004, this number is expected to increase to 24 by 2022-2026. Auckland region is projected to account for two-thirds of New Zealand's population growth between 2001 and 2026, increasing from 1.22 million to 1.77 million people. Auckland region would then be home to 37 percent of New Zealand's population in 2026, compared with 31 percent in 2001. While the four cities in the Auckland region (Auckland, Manukau, Waitakere and North Shore) are projected to have the highest numerical growth of New Zealand's territorial authorities, the highest percentage growth in population is projected for Queenstown-Lakes District. Between 2001 and 2026, the population of Queenstown-Lakes District is projected to increase by 79 percent, from 18,000 to 32,000. Over the same period, growth of more than 50 percent is also projected for Rodney District,
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Whangarei District Growth Model Selwyn District and Manukau City. Natural increase will contribute most of the population growth in Manukau City, while net migration gains will be most important in Queenstown-Lakes, Rodney and Selwyn districts. The largest percentage decreases in population between 2001 and 2026 are projected for the districts of Kawerau (down 27 percent), Ruapehu (down 26 percent), Wairoa and South Waikato (both down 22 percent). These areas are all likely to have shrinking natural increase and continuing net migration outflows, although these outflows are assumed to be smaller than experienced historically. The population of all territorial authorities will be older in future. All territorial authorities are projected to have more older people (aged 65 years and over) in 2026 than in 2001, while the majority will also have fewer children (aged under 15 years). The working-age population (defined as 15-64 years) will also get older as the large number of people born after World War II move through this age group. In 2026, the median age of the population is projected to be oldest in Central Otago District, at 57 years. In 2001, the oldest median age was 44 years in Thames-Coromandel District. Hamilton City is projected to have the youngest median age of 35 years in 2026, compared with the youngest median age in 2001 of 30 years in Kawerau District. The oldest median ages are generally in areas experiencing low fertility and/or a net outflow of young adults (aged 15-29 years) and a net inflow of people aged 35-74 years. The youngest median ages are generally in areas experiencing high fertility and/or a net inflow of young adults (such as cities with a university). Method and assumptions The cohort component method has been used to derive the population projections. In this method the base population is projected forward by calculating the effect of deaths and migration within each age-sex group according to specified mortality and migration assumptions. New birth cohorts are generated by applying specified fertility assumptions to the female population of childbearing age. Projection assumptions are formulated after analysis of short- and long-term historical trends, government policy, information provided by local planners (eg housing subdivisions, zoning changes, commencement/expansion/closure of industries) and other relevant information which may affect population change in each area. The projections incorporate the latest demographic information available at the time of production, including subnational population estimates at 30 June 2004, and birth and death registrations to December 2004. The assumed fertility and mortality rates are based on the registered births and deaths, respectively, for each area to 2004. The assumed rates are also consistent with the assumed rates for higher geographic levels (ie medium fertility and mortality variants for each territorial authority and New Zealand). Migration at the subnational level has both external migration and internal migration components, although these separate components are difficult to quantify because of insufficient data. The assumed future net migration for each area is based on a consideration of observed net migration during each five-year period from 1981 to 2001, the capacity of the area for further growth (for areas with net inflow), whether historical outflows can be sustained (for areas with net outflow), the desirability of the area to new migrants, and information available from and about local authority areas relating to current and future developments which may affect population change.
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Whangarei District Growth Model 4.
Regression Analysis - Population and Dwellings vs. Building Consents and New Lots 350
600
250 200 150 100 50 0 -100
500
Building Consents
300 Building Consents
700
2
R = 0.6346
300 200 100 -400
-50 0
100
200
300
400
0 -200 -100 0
600
450 400
2
R = 0.2562
800
1,000
2
R = 0.2207
350 300 New Lots
New Lots
400
Population
350 300 250 200 150 100
250 200 150 100 50
50 0 -100
200
-200
Dwellings
450 400
2
R = 0.5983
400
0
100
200
Dwellings
Created 9 March 2007 Updated 18 January 2008
300
400
-400
0 -200 -50 0
200
400
600
800
Population
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1,000
Whangarei District Growth Model 5.
Household Tables - Population
Table 20 Usually Resident Population Growth Rates by Area Unit 1991
1996
2001
2006
1991-1996
1996-2001
2001-2006
Number
Percent
Number
Percent
Number
279
360
405
666
81
29.03%
45
12.50%
261
64.44%
Bream Head
2,811
3,576
3,759
4,290
765
27.21%
183
5.12%
531
14.13%
Hikurangi
1,359
1,383
1,362
1,359
24
1.77%
-21
-1.52%
-3
-0.22%
Horahora
1,005
957
978
1,023
-48
-4.78%
21
2.19%
45
4.60%
Kamo East
2,808
2,814
3,039
3,165
6
0.21%
225
8.00%
126
4.15%
Kamo West
2,754
2,790
2,868
3,150
36
1.31%
78
2.80%
282
9.83%
Kensington
1,263
1,302
1,287
1,176
39
3.09%
-15
-1.15%
-111
-8.62%
Mairtown
2,091
2,322
2,346
2,358
231
11.05%
24
1.03%
12
0.51%
Marsden Point-Ruakaka
2,691
2,766
2,661
2,913
75
2.79%
-105
-3.80%
252
9.47%
648
837
963
1,155
189
29.17%
126
15.05%
192
19.94%
Maunu
1,113
1,236
1,302
1,350
123
11.05%
66
5.34%
48
3.69%
Morningside
2,034
2,049
2,067
2,142
15
0.74%
18
0.88%
75
3.63%
Ngunguru
1,017
1,266
1,287
1,422
249
24.48%
21
1.66%
135
10.49%
Onerahi
2,025
2,112
2,007
1,974
87
4.30%
-105
-4.97%
-33
-1.64%
Opouteke-Tanekaha
3,126
3,486
3,813
4,485
360
11.52%
327
9.38%
672
17.62%
Abbey Caves
Maungatapere
Percent
720
822
978
996
102
14.17%
156
18.98%
18
1.84%
Otangarei
2,217
2,250
2,034
2,253
33
1.49%
-216
-9.60%
219
10.77%
Parahaki
1,164
1,170
1,176
1,014
6
0.52%
6
0.51%
-162
-13.78%
36
33
54
141
-3
-8.33%
21
63.64%
87
161.11%
Punaruku-Kiripaka
2,526
3,087
3,282
3,489
561
22.21%
195
6.32%
207
6.31%
Raumanga East
1,755
1,758
1,656
1,656
3
0.17%
-102
-5.80%
0
0.00%
Raumanga West
2,889
2,955
2,805
2,994
66
2.28%
-150
-5.08%
189
6.74%
Regent
1,650
1,857
1,728
1,674
207
12.55%
-129
-6.95%
-54
-3.13% 16.21%
Otaika-Portland
Port-Limeburners
729
789
759
882
60
8.23%
-30
-3.80%
123
3,579
3,507
3,495
3,753
-72
-2.01%
-12
-0.34%
258
7.38%
Springs Flat
954
1,038
1,182
1,428
84
8.81%
144
13.87%
246
20.81%
Te Hihi
468
570
516
654
102
21.79%
-54
-9.47%
138
26.74%
Riverside Sherwood Rise
336
405
528
645
69
20.54%
123
30.37%
117
22.16%
Tikipunga East
2,817
2,856
2,790
3,096
39
1.38%
-66
-2.31%
306
10.97%
Tikipunga West
2,625
2,652
2,880
3,024
27
1.03%
228
8.60%
144
5.00%
Vinetown
1,434
1,437
1,437
1,521
3
0.21%
0
0.00%
84
5.85%
Waiotira-Springfield
1,416
1,503
1,554
1,851
87
6.14%
51
3.39%
297
19.11%
Waipu
1,554
1,743
1,899
2,271
189
12.16%
156
8.95%
372
19.59%
Three Mile Bush
Western Hills
204
213
195
399
9
4.41%
-18
-8.45%
204
104.62%
Whangarei Central
177
201
150
213
24
13.56%
-51
-25.37%
63
42.00%
Wharekohe-Oakleigh
2,076
2,565
2,796
3,576
489
23.55%
231
9.01%
780
27.90%
Whau Valley
2,331
2,382
2,394
2,469
51
2.19%
12
0.50%
75
3.13%
Woodhill Total Whangarei
Created 9 March 2007 Updated 18 January 2008
1,521
1,647
1,638
1,644
126
8.28%
-9
-0.55%
6
0.37%
62,202
66,696
68,070
74,271
4,494
7.22%
1,374
2.06%
6,201
9.11%
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Whangarei District Growth Model
Table 21 Usually Resident Population Growth Rates by Structure Plan Study Area 1991 Avenues/Morningside
1996
2001
2006
1991-1996
1996-2001
2001-2006
Number
Percent
Number
Percent
Number
Percent
75
1.74%
-27
-0.62%
186
4.27%
4,305
4,380
4,353
4,539
774
765
717
726
-9
-1.16%
-48
-6.27%
9
1.26%
24
21
27
27
-3
-12.50%
6
28.57%
0
0.00%
Hikurangi
1,527
1,545
1,554
1,572
18
1.18%
9
0.58%
18
1.16%
Kamo-Three Mile Bush
8,940
9,450
10,110
11,106
510
5.70%
660
6.98%
996
9.85%
Kensington
8,352
8,973
8,628
9,039
621
7.44%
-345
-3.84%
411
4.76%
Maunu
3,207
3,510
3,633
4,047
303
9.45%
123
3.50%
414
11.40%
Otaika-Toetoe
4,917
5,010
4,812
5,091
93
1.89%
-198
-3.95%
279
5.80%
Parahaki-Onerahi
6,765
6,900
6,795
7,161
135
2.00%
-105
-1.52%
366
5.39%
468
498
540
606
30
6.41%
42
8.43%
66
12.22%
Tikipunga-Glenbervie
6,525
6,645
6,969
7,794
120
1.84%
324
4.88%
825
11.84%
Marsden Point - Ruakaka
City Centre City Port
Portland
2,808
2,892
2,835
3,114
84
2.99%
-57
-1.97%
279
9.84%
Matapouri
198
312
315
372
114
57.58%
3
0.96%
57
18.10%
McLeod Bay & Reotahi
486
597
609
582
111
22.84%
12
2.01%
-27
-4.43%
Ngunguru
552
663
786
846
111
20.11%
123
18.55%
60
7.63%
Oakura
369
435
348
462
66
17.89%
-87
-20.00%
114
32.76%
Parua Bay
612
705
867
1,068
93
15.20%
162
22.98%
201
23.18%
Pataua
234
372
393
480
138
58.97%
21
5.65%
87
22.14%
Taurikura & Urquharts
390
522
471
486
132
33.85%
-51
-9.77%
15
3.18%
Tutukaka
570
753
657
753
183
32.11%
-96
-12.75%
96
14.61%
Waipu
912
1,017
1,029
1,188
105
11.51%
12
1.18%
159
15.45%
Waipu Cove & Langs Beach Total
Created 9 March 2007 Updated 18 January 2008
306
336
396
450
30
9.80%
60
17.86%
54
13.64%
53,241
56,301
56,844
61,509
3,060
5.75%
543
0.96%
4,665
8.21%
Page 51 of 98
Whangarei District Growth Model Table 22 High Population Projections by Area Unit 1991 - 2041 1991
1996
2001
2006
2011
2016
2021
2026
2031
2036
2041
Abbey Caves
279
360
405
666
559
578
601
622
642
663
683
Bream Head
2,811
3,576
3,759
4,290
5,974
6,163
6,405
6,624
6,844
7,063
7,282
Hikurangi
1,359
1,383
1,362
1,359
1,219
1,241
1,290
1,334
1,378
1,422
1,466
Horahora
1,005
957
978
1,023
1,178
1,210
1,257
1,300
1,343
1,386
1,429
Kamo East
2,808
2,814
3,039
3,165
3,154
3,475
3,612
3,735
3,859
3,982
4,106
Kamo West
2,754
2,790
2,868
3,150
3,422
3,444
3,579
3,702
3,824
3,947
4,069
Kensington
1,263
1,302
1,287
1,176
1,706
1,711
1,778
1,839
1,900
1,961
2,022
Mairtown
2,091
2,322
2,346
2,358
2,988
3,074
3,195
3,305
3,414
3,523
3,632
Marsden Point-Ruakaka
2,691
2,766
2,661
2,913
3,590
4,890
6,315
8,120
9,594
10,717
11,476
Maungatapere Maunu
648
837
963
1,155
1,183
1,202
1,250
1,292
1,335
1,378
1,421
1,113
1,236
1,302
1,350
1,639
1,639
1,704
1,762
1,820
1,878
1,937
Morningside
2,034
2,049
2,067
2,142
2,158
2,172
2,257
2,335
2,412
2,489
2,566
Ngunguru
1,017
1,266
1,287
1,422
2,395
2,534
2,634
2,724
2,814
2,904
2,994
Onerahi
2,025
2,112
2,007
1,974
2,227
2,263
2,352
2,433
2,513
2,594
2,674
Opouteke-Tanekaha
3,126
3,486
3,813
4,485
4,798
4,939
5,133
5,309
5,485
5,660
5,836
720
822
978
996
1,027
1,046
1,088
1,125
1,162
1,199
1,236
Otangarei
2,217
2,250
2,034
2,253
1,685
1,706
1,773
1,834
1,895
1,955
2,016
Parahaki
1,494
Otaika-Portland
1,164
1,170
1,176
1,014
1,241
1,265
1,315
1,359
1,404
1,449
Port-Limeburners
36
33
54
141
163
170
177
183
189
195
201
Punaruku-Kiripaka
2,526
3,087
3,282
3,489
5,182
5,513
5,729
5,925
6,122
6,317
6,513
Raumanga East
1,755
1,758
1,656
1,656
1,526
1,538
1,599
1,654
1,708
1,763
1,818
Raumanga West
2,889
2,955
2,805
2,994
2,743
2,861
2,973
3,075
3,177
3,278
3,380
Regent
1,650
1,857
1,728
1,674
2,014
2,033
2,113
2,185
2,257
2,329
2,402
729
789
759
882
989
994
1,033
1,068
1,103
1,139
1,174
Riverside Sherwood Rise
3,579
3,507
3,495
3,753
3,934
3,958
4,113
4,254
4,395
4,535
4,676
Springs Flat
954
1,038
1,182
1,428
1,464
1,719
1,733
2,618
3,340
3,891
4,263
Te Hihi
468
570
516
654
1,058
1,097
1,140
1,179
1,218
1,257
1,296 1,248
Three Mile Bush
336
405
528
645
1,015
1,056
1,098
1,135
1,173
1,210
Tikipunga East
2,817
2,856
2,790
3,096
2,974
2,993
3,110
3,217
3,323
3,430
3,536
Tikipunga West
2,625
2,652
2,880
3,024
2,820
2,918
3,033
3,137
3,241
3,344
3,448
Vinetown
1,434
1,437
1,437
1,521
1,855
1,860
1,933
1,999
2,065
2,131
2,198
Waiotira-Springfield
1,416
1,503
1,554
1,851
2,360
3,081
3,674
3,846
4,006
4,151
4,282
Waipu
1,554
1,743
1,899
2,271
3,210
3,646
3,826
4,202
4,527
4,798
5,013
204
213
195
399
281
281
292
302
312
322
332
Western Hills Whangarei Central
177
201
150
213
166
166
172
178
184
190
196
Wharekohe-Oakleigh
2,076
2,565
2,796
3,576
4,210
4,349
4,520
4,674
4,829
4,984
5,138
Whau Valley
2,331
2,382
2,394
2,469
2,654
2,681
2,786
2,881
2,977
3,072
3,167
Woodhill Grand Total
1,521
1,647
1,638
1,644
1,975
2,088
2,170
2,244
2,319
2,393
2,467
62,202
66,696
68,070
74,271
84,736
89,555
94,762
100,710
106,103
110,900
115,086
Created 9 March 2007 Updated 18 January 2008
Page 52 of 98
Whangarei District Growth Model Table 23 Medium Population Projections by Area Unit 1991 - 2041 1991
1996
2001
2006
2011
2016
2021
2026
2031
2036
2041
Abbey Caves
279
360
405
666
615
633
652
667
683
699
714
Bream Head
2,811
3,576
3,759
4,290
5,150
5,297
5,464
5,608
5,753
5,897
6,041
Hikurangi
1,359
1,383
1,362
1,359
1,295
1,322
1,361
1,394
1,427
1,460
1,493
Horahora
1,005
957
978
1,023
1,105
1,133
1,168
1,198
1,227
1,257
1,287
Kamo East
2,808
2,814
3,039
3,165
3,173
3,372
3,474
3,562
3,649
3,736
3,823
Kamo West
2,754
2,790
2,868
3,150
3,300
3,349
3,450
3,537
3,624
3,710
3,797
Kensington
1,263
1,302
1,287
1,176
1,446
1,463
1,509
1,549
1,589
1,629
1,669
Mairtown
2,091
2,322
2,346
2,358
2,683
2,755
2,841
2,914
2,988
3,062
3,135
Marsden Point-Ruakaka
2,691
2,766
2,661
2,913
3,264
3,949
4,693
5,619
6,380
6,964
7,368
648
837
963
1,155
1,174
1,198
1,234
1,264
1,295
1,326
1,356
1,113
1,236
1,302
1,350
1,500
1,517
1,563
1,603
1,644
1,684
1,724
Maungatapere Maunu Morningside
2,034
2,049
2,067
2,142
2,159
2,192
2,258
2,314
2,370
2,425
2,481
Ngunguru
1,017
1,266
1,287
1,422
1,915
2,002
2,067
2,123
2,180
2,236
2,293
Onerahi
2,025
2,112
2,007
1,974
2,109
2,151
2,217
2,273
2,329
2,385
2,441
Opouteke-Tanekaha
3,126
3,486
3,813
4,485
4,661
4,786
4,931
5,055
5,179
5,303
5,427
720
822
978
996
1,016
1,038
1,069
1,095
1,122
1,149
1,175
Otangarei
2,217
2,250
2,034
2,253
1,979
2,017
2,074
2,123
2,171
2,220
2,268
Parahaki
1,314
Otaika-Portland
1,164
1,170
1,176
1,014
1,132
1,156
1,192
1,222
1,253
1,284
Port-Limeburners
36
33
54
141
153
158
163
167
171
175
180
Punaruku-Kiripaka
2,526
3,087
3,282
3,489
4,350
4,558
4,704
4,830
4,956
5,082
5,208
Raumanga East
1,755
1,758
1,656
1,656
1,598
1,624
1,672
1,713
1,754
1,794
1,835
Raumanga West
2,889
2,955
2,805
2,994
2,881
2,977
3,065
3,140
3,215
3,290
3,365
Regent
1,650
1,857
1,728
1,674
1,851
1,881
1,939
1,988
2,038
2,088
2,137
729
789
759
882
939
952
981
1,006
1,031
1,056
1,080 4,437
Riverside Sherwood Rise
3,579
3,507
3,495
3,753
3,859
3,917
4,035
4,136
4,236
4,337
Springs Flat
954
1,038
1,182
1,428
1,452
1,597
1,619
2,073
2,446
2,733
2,930
Te Hihi
468
570
516
654
859
886
915
939
964
989
1,014
Three Mile Bush Tikipunga East
336
405
528
645
833
861
889
913
937
961
985
2,817
2,856
2,790
3,096
3,048
3,095
3,187
3,265
3,344
3,422
3,500
Tikipunga West
2,625
2,652
2,880
3,024
2,935
3,021
3,111
3,187
3,263
3,339
3,416
Vinetown
1,434
1,437
1,437
1,521
1,695
1,715
1,768
1,814
1,859
1,904
1,950
Waiotira-Springfield
1,416
1,503
1,554
1,851
2,114
2,496
2,813
2,914
3,008
3,096
3,177
Waipu
1,554
1,743
1,899
2,271
2,750
2,996
3,110
3,317
3,497
3,651
3,777
204
213
195
399
342
346
356
364
373
381
389
Western Hills Whangarei Central
177
201
150
213
190
193
198
203
208
212
217
Wharekohe-Oakleigh
2,076
2,565
2,796
3,576
3,908
4,021
4,145
4,251
4,357
4,463
4,569
Whau Valley
2,331
2,382
2,394
2,469
2,572
2,615
2,695
2,762
2,830
2,897
2,965
Woodhill Grand Total
1,521
1,647
1,638
1,644
1,817
1,893
1,952
2,002
2,052
2,103
2,153
62,202
66,696
68,070
74,271
79,823
83,131
86,532
90,105
93,402
96,398
99,089
Created 9 March 2007 Updated 18 January 2008
Page 53 of 98
Whangarei District Growth Model Table 24 Low Population Projections by Area Unit 1991 – 2041 1991
1996
2001
2006
2011
2016
2021
2026
2031
2036
2041
Abbey Caves
279
360
405
666
672
688
702
713
724
734
745
Bream Head
2,811
3,576
3,759
4,290
4,327
4,431
4,523
4,592
4,661
4,730
4,799
Hikurangi
1,359
1,383
1,362
1,359
1,371
1,404
1,433
1,455
1,477
1,499
1,520
Horahora
1,005
957
978
1,023
1,032
1,057
1,079
1,095
1,112
1,128
1,144
Kamo East
2,808
2,814
3,039
3,165
3,192
3,269
3,337
3,388
3,439
3,490
3,541
Kamo West
2,754
2,790
2,868
3,150
3,177
3,253
3,321
3,372
3,423
3,473
3,524
Kensington
1,263
1,302
1,287
1,176
1,186
1,215
1,240
1,259
1,278
1,297
1,316
Mairtown
2,091
2,322
2,346
2,358
2,378
2,435
2,486
2,524
2,562
2,600
2,638
Marsden Point-Ruakaka
2,691
2,766
2,661
2,913
2,938
3,009
3,071
3,118
3,165
3,212
3,259
648
837
963
1,155
1,165
1,193
1,218
1,236
1,255
1,274
1,292
1,113
1,236
1,302
1,350
1,362
1,394
1,423
1,445
1,467
1,489
1,510
Maungatapere Maunu Morningside
2,034
2,049
2,067
2,142
2,160
2,212
2,258
2,293
2,327
2,362
2,396
Ngunguru
1,017
1,266
1,287
1,422
1,434
1,469
1,499
1,522
1,545
1,568
1,591
Onerahi
2,025
2,112
2,007
1,974
1,991
2,039
2,081
2,113
2,145
2,177
2,208
Opouteke-Tanekaha
3,126
3,486
3,813
4,485
4,524
4,632
4,728
4,801
4,873
4,945
5,018
720
822
978
996
1,005
1,029
1,050
1,066
1,082
1,098
1,114
Otangarei
2,217
2,250
2,034
2,253
2,272
2,327
2,375
2,412
2,448
2,484
2,521
Parahaki
1,134
Otaika-Portland
1,164
1,170
1,176
1,014
1,023
1,047
1,069
1,085
1,102
1,118
Port-Limeburners
36
33
54
141
142
146
149
151
153
155
158
Punaruku-Kiripaka
2,526
3,087
3,282
3,489
3,519
3,603
3,678
3,735
3,791
3,847
3,903
Raumanga East
1,755
1,758
1,656
1,656
1,670
1,710
1,746
1,773
1,799
1,826
1,853
Raumanga West
2,889
2,955
2,805
2,994
3,020
3,092
3,157
3,205
3,253
3,301
3,350
Regent
1,650
1,857
1,728
1,674
1,688
1,729
1,765
1,792
1,819
1,846
1,873
729
789
759
882
890
911
930
944
958
973
987
Riverside Sherwood Rise
3,579
3,507
3,495
3,753
3,785
3,876
3,957
4,017
4,078
4,138
4,199
Springs Flat
954
1,038
1,182
1,428
1,440
1,475
1,506
1,529
1,552
1,575
1,598
Te Hihi
468
570
516
654
660
675
690
700
711
721
732
Three Mile Bush Tikipunga East
336
405
528
645
651
666
680
690
701
711
722
2,817
2,856
2,790
3,096
3,123
3,198
3,264
3,314
3,364
3,414
3,464
Tikipunga West
2,625
2,652
2,880
3,024
3,050
3,123
3,188
3,237
3,286
3,334
3,383
Vinetown
1,434
1,437
1,437
1,521
1,534
1,571
1,604
1,628
1,653
1,677
1,702
Waiotira-Springfield
1,416
1,503
1,554
1,851
1,867
1,912
1,951
1,981
2,011
2,041
2,071
Waipu
1,554
1,743
1,899
2,271
2,291
2,346
2,394
2,431
2,468
2,504
2,541
204
213
195
399
402
412
421
427
434
440
446
Western Hills Whangarei Central
177
201
150
213
215
220
225
228
231
235
238
Wharekohe-Oakleigh
2,076
2,565
2,796
3,576
3,607
3,693
3,770
3,828
3,886
3,943
4,001
Whau Valley
2,331
2,382
2,394
2,469
2,490
2,550
2,603
2,643
2,683
2,722
2,762
Woodhill Grand Total
1,521
1,647
1,638
1,644
1,658
1,698
1,733
1,760
1,786
1,813
1,839
62,202
66,696
68,070
74,271
74,910
76,708
78,303
79,501
80,702
81,896
83,092
Created 9 March 2007 Updated 18 January 2008
Page 54 of 98
Whangarei District Growth Model Table 25 High Population Projections by Structure Plan Study Area 1991 – 2041 1991
1996
2001
2006
2011
2016
2021
2026
2031
2036
2041
4,305
4,380
4,353
4,539
5,076
5,194
5,398
5,582
5,767
5,952
6,136
City Centre
774
765
717
726
756
768
798
825
853
880
907
City Port
24
21
27
27
48
53
55
57
59
61
62
Hikurangi
1,527
1,545
1,554
1,572
1,468
1,499
1,555
1,656
1,747
1,829
1,900
Kamo-Three Mile Bush
8,940
9,450
10,110
11,106
12,229
12,819
13,285
14,206
15,036
15,769
16,400
Kensington
8,352
8,973
8,628
9,039
10,128
10,289
10,693
11,059
11,425
11,791
12,156
Maunu
2,808
2,892
2,835
3,114
3,845
5,761
7,691
9,590
11,145
12,335
13,147
Avenues/Morningside
198
312
315
372
787
826
858
887
917
946
975
3,207
3,510
3,633
4,047
5,028
5,112
5,313
5,495
5,676
5,858
6,040
Portland
486
597
609
582
840
845
878
908
938
968
998
Tikipunga-Glenbervie
552
663
786
846
1,313
1,368
1,422
1,470
1,519
1,568
1,616
Otaika-Toetoe Parahaki-Onerahi
369
435
348
462
701
706
733
758
784
809
834
Matapouri
4,917
5,010
4,812
5,091
4,721
4,862
5,053
5,226
5,399
5,572
5,745
McLeod Bay & Reotahi
6,765
6,900
6,795
7,161
7,738
7,831
8,139
8,417
8,696
8,974
9,252
Ngunguru
612
705
867
1,068
1,219
1,277
1,327
1,372
1,418
1,463
1,509
Oakura
234
372
393
480
869
900
935
967
999
1,031
1,063
Parua Bay
468
498
540
606
614
624
649
671
693
715
737
Marsden Point - Ruakaka
Pataua Taurikura & Urquharts
390
522
471
486
722
744
773
800
826
853
879
6,525
6,645
6,969
7,794
7,435
7,659
7,949
8,510
9,014
9,457
9,837
Tutukaka
570
753
657
753
1,301
1,414
1,469
1,519
1,570
1,620
1,670
Waipu
912
1,017
1,029
1,188
1,606
1,666
1,731
1,790
1,850
1,909
1,968
Waipu Cove & Langs Beach Grand Total
Created 9 March 2007 Updated 18 January 2008
306
336
396
450
640
907
980
1,259
1,487
1,660
1,777
53,241
56,301
56,844
61,509
69,083
73,123
77,685
83,027
87,817
92,017
95,610
Page 55 of 98
Whangarei District Growth Model Table 26 Medium Population Projections by Structure Plan Study Area 1991
1996
2001
2006
2011
2016
2021
2026
2031
2036
2041
4,305
4,380
4,353
4,539
4,827
4,941
5,092
5,220
5,350
5,478
5,607
City Centre
774
765
717
726
744
759
782
801
821
840
860
City Port
24
21
27
27
38
40
42
43
44
45
46
Hikurangi
1,527
1,545
1,554
1,572
1,527
1,561
1,606
1,669
1,728
1,781
1,830
Kamo-Three Mile Bush
8,940
9,450
10,110
11,106
11,715
12,145
12,497
13,047
13,552
14,007
14,412
Kensington
8,352
8,973
8,628
9,039
9,622
9,812
10,111
10,367
10,623
10,879
11,134
Maunu
2,808
2,892
2,835
3,114
3,493
4,488
5,487
6,462
7,264
7,884
8,316
Avenues/Morningside
198
312
315
372
581
605
625
643
660
678
696
3,207
3,510
3,633
4,047
4,555
4,646
4,790
4,913
5,037
5,160
5,284
Portland
486
597
609
582
714
723
746
766
785
805
825
Tikipunga-Glenbervie
552
663
786
846
1,083
1,121
1,157
1,188
1,219
1,250
1,281
Otaika-Toetoe Parahaki-Onerahi
369
435
348
462
583
591
610
626
643
659
675
Matapouri
4,917
5,010
4,812
5,091
4,928
5,060
5,210
5,338
5,466
5,593
5,720
McLeod Bay & Reotahi
6,765
6,900
6,795
7,161
7,480
7,614
7,844
8,041
8,238
8,435
8,632
Ngunguru
612
705
867
1,068
1,148
1,190
1,226
1,258
1,289
1,320
1,352
Oakura
234
372
393
480
676
698
721
741
760
780
800
Parua Bay
468
498
540
606
613
625
644
660
676
692
708
Marsden Point - Ruakaka
Pataua Taurikura & Urquharts
390
522
471
486
606
623
643
660
677
694
711
6,525
6,645
6,969
7,794
7,648
7,854
8,083
8,426
8,741
9,025
9,278
Tutukaka
570
753
657
753
1,030
1,096
1,132
1,163
1,194
1,225
1,256
Waipu
912
1,017
1,029
1,188
1,402
1,446
1,492
1,531
1,570
1,609
1,648
Waipu Cove & Langs Beach Grand Total
Created 9 March 2007 Updated 18 January 2008
306
336
396
450
547
686
727
870
988
1,078
1,140
53,241
56,301
56,844
61,509
65,560
68,325
71,267
74,433
77,326
79,920
82,212
Page 56 of 98
Whangarei District Growth Model Table 27 Low Population Projections by Structure Plan Study Area 1991
1996
2001
2006
2011
2016
2021
2026
2031
2036
2041
4,305
4,380
4,353
4,539
4,578
4,688
4,785
4,859
4,932
5,005
5,078
City Centre
774
765
717
726
732
750
765
777
789
801
812
City Port
24
21
27
27
27
28
28
29
29
30
30
Hikurangi
1,527
1,545
1,554
1,572
1,586
1,624
1,657
1,683
1,708
1,733
1,759
Kamo-Three Mile Bush
8,940
9,450
10,110
11,106
11,202
11,470
11,709
11,888
12,068
12,246
12,425
Kensington
8,352
8,973
8,628
9,039
9,117
9,336
9,530
9,676
9,822
9,967
10,112
Maunu
2,808
2,892
2,835
3,114
3,141
3,216
3,283
3,333
3,384
3,434
3,484
Avenues/Morningside
198
312
315
372
375
384
392
398
404
410
416
3,207
3,510
3,633
4,047
4,082
4,180
4,267
4,332
4,397
4,462
4,528
Portland
486
597
609
582
587
601
614
623
632
642
651
Tikipunga-Glenbervie
552
663
786
846
853
874
892
906
919
933
946
Otaika-Toetoe Parahaki-Onerahi
369
435
348
462
466
477
487
495
502
509
517
Matapouri
4,917
5,010
4,812
5,091
5,135
5,258
5,367
5,450
5,532
5,614
5,696
McLeod Bay & Reotahi
6,765
6,900
6,795
7,161
7,223
7,396
7,550
7,665
7,781
7,896
8,011
Ngunguru
612
705
867
1,068
1,077
1,103
1,126
1,143
1,160
1,178
1,195
Oakura
234
372
393
480
484
496
506
514
522
529
537
Parua Bay
468
498
540
606
611
626
639
649
658
668
678
Marsden Point - Ruakaka
Pataua Taurikura & Urquharts
390
522
471
486
490
502
512
520
528
536
544
6,525
6,645
6,969
7,794
7,861
8,050
8,217
8,343
8,469
8,594
8,720
Tutukaka
570
753
657
753
759
778
794
806
818
830
842
Waipu
912
1,017
1,029
1,188
1,198
1,227
1,252
1,272
1,291
1,310
1,329
Waipu Cove & Langs Beach Grand Total
Created 9 March 2007 Updated 18 January 2008
306
336
396
450
454
465
474
482
489
496
503
53,241
56,301
56,844
61,509
62,038
63,527
64,848
65,840
66,835
67,824
68,814
Page 57 of 98
Whangarei District Growth Model Table 28 Business and Residential Development 2000-2007 Residential Building Consents 49
28
11
4
3
337
325
188
12
1
12
12
18
84
14
77
504
2
Hikurangi Horahora
Proposed Residential Subdivisions (number of lots)
Business Subdivisions (number of lots)
Abbey Caves Bream Head
Granted (223) Residential Subdivisions (number of lots)
Business Building Consents
1
Kamo East
3
Kamo West
1
72
37
14
Kensington
2
11
8
2
Mairtown
1
Marsden Point-Ruakaka
4
Maungatapere
1
36
Maunu Morningside Ngunguru
0 4
Onerahi
47
36
5
318
548
940
82
36
4
42
3
19
26
15
129
128
37
37
48
8
Opouteke-Tanekaha
8
317
201
40
Otaika-Portland
5
50
30
31
Otangarei
1
Parahaki Punaruku-Kiripaka
3
Raumanga East Raumanga West Regent
2
Te Hihi
5
Vinetown
1
Waiotira-Springfield
6
Waipu
309
363
121
2
15 62
0
17
15
5
14
100
30
74
0
95
50
13
74
157
6
157
36
13
Tikipunga East 1
10
26
Three Mile Bush
Tikipunga West
37
43
Riverside
Springs Flat
11
15
2
Sherwood Rise
4 23
63
27
117
155
274
134
9
4
0
126
417
49
3
316
320
273
13
45
Wharekohe-Oakleigh
2
339
219
Whau Valley
1
37
30
3
36
51
16
3,501
4,124
2,360
190
Western Hills
Woodhill Grand Total
Created 9 March 2007 Updated 18 January 2008
60
282
43
Page 58 of 98
Whangarei District Growth Model 6. Household Tables - Dwellings Table 29 Growth in Occupied Dwelling Count by Area Unit 1991
1996
2001
2006
1991-1996
1996-2001
2001-2006
Number
Percent
Number
Percent
Number
96
114
135
234
18
18.75%
21
18.42%
99
73.33%
1041
1311
1437
1692
270
25.94%
126
9.61%
255
17.75%
Hikurangi
417
435
465
468
18
4.32%
30
6.90%
3
0.65%
Horahora
321
354
369
390
33
10.28%
15
4.24%
21
5.69%
Kamo East
942
969
1077
1170
27
2.87%
108
11.15%
93
8.64%
Kamo West
1011
1098
1158
1254
87
8.61%
60
5.46%
96
8.29%
Kensington
546
576
576
528
30
5.49%
0
0.00%
-48
-8.33%
Mairtown
939
1026
1068
1074
87
9.27%
42
4.09%
6
0.56%
Marsden Point-Ruakaka
951
993
1062
1152
42
4.42%
69
6.95%
90
8.47%
Maungatapere
195
249
318
402
54
27.69%
69
27.71%
84
26.42%
Abbey Caves Bream Head
Percent
Maunu
399
423
471
507
24
6.02%
48
11.35%
36
7.64%
Morningside
720
738
753
786
18
2.50%
15
2.03%
33
4.38% 13.37%
Ngunguru
402
507
561
636
105
26.12%
54
10.65%
75
Onerahi
669
717
762
753
48
7.17%
45
6.28%
-9
-1.18%
Opouteke-Tanekaha
933
1086
1215
1455
153
16.40%
129
11.88%
240
19.75%
Otaika-Portland
222
270
330
351
48
21.62%
60
22.22%
21
6.36%
Otangarei
657
648
639
663
-9
-1.37%
-9
-1.39%
24
3.76%
Parahaki
399
417
420
387
18
4.51%
3
0.72%
-33
-7.86% 91.67%
Port-Limeburners
12
27
36
69
15
125.00%
9
33.33%
33
Punaruku-Kiripaka
879
1113
1218
1281
234
26.62%
105
9.43%
63
5.17%
Raumanga East
537
561
552
549
24
4.47%
-9
-1.60%
-3
-0.54%
Raumanga West
885
912
924
942
27
3.05%
12
1.32%
18
1.95%
Regent
684
711
729
723
27
3.95%
18
2.53%
-6
-0.82%
Riverside
303
321
336
393
18
5.94%
15
4.67%
57
16.96%
1248
1302
1365
1509
54
4.33%
63
4.84%
144
10.55%
Sherwood Rise Springs Flat
309
357
378
501
48
15.53%
21
5.88%
123
32.54%
Te Hihi
177
207
213
264
30
16.95%
6
2.90%
51
23.94%
96
108
162
207
12
12.50%
54
50.00%
45
27.78%
Tikipunga East
897
945
1014
1104
48
5.35%
69
7.30%
90
8.88%
Tikipunga West
846
894
951
1041
48
5.67%
57
6.38%
90
9.46%
Vinetown
669
684
696
699
15
2.24%
12
1.75%
3
0.43%
Waiotira-Springfield
423
492
546
660
69
16.31%
54
10.98%
114
20.88%
Waipu
Three Mile Bush
576
630
723
912
54
9.38%
93
14.76%
189
26.14%
Western Hills
63
69
69
147
6
9.52%
0
0.00%
78
113.04%
Whangarei Central
45
39
48
93
-6
-13.33%
9
23.08%
45
93.75%
Wharekohe-Oakleigh
651
828
939
1284
177
27.19%
111
13.41%
345
36.74%
Whau Valley
864
912
936
969
48
5.56%
24
2.63%
33
3.53%
Woodhill
600
627
642
672
27
4.50%
15
2.39%
30
4.67%
21624
23670
25293
27921
2,046
9.46%
1,623
6.86%
2,628
10.39%
Total Whangarei
Created 9 March 2007 Updated 18 January 2008
Page 59 of 98
Whangarei District Growth Model Table 30 Growth in Occupied Dwelling Count by Structure Plan Study Area
1991 Avenues/Morningside
1996
2001
2006
1991-1996
1996-2001
2001-2006
Number
Percent
Number
Percent
Number
Percent
36
2.12%
36
2.08%
48
2.72%
1695
1731
1767
1815
252
252
258
291
0
0.00%
6
2.38%
33
12.79%
12
18
27
27
6
50.00%
9
50.00%
0
0.00%
462
486
525
546
24
5.19%
39
8.02%
21
4.00%
Kamo-Three Mile Bush
3102
3390
3708
4140
288
9.28%
318
9.38%
432
11.65%
Kensington
3324
3501
3567
3693
177
5.32%
66
1.89%
126
3.53%
Maunu
1146
1266
1371
1569
120
10.47%
105
8.29%
198
14.44%
Otaika-Toetoe
1512
1587
1593
1644
75
4.96%
6
0.38%
51
3.20%
Parahaki-Onerahi
2316
2463
2595
2796
147
6.35%
132
5.36%
201
7.75%
132
153
183
216
21
15.91%
30
19.61%
33
18.03%
2079
2214
2394
2712
135
6.49%
180
8.13%
318
13.28%
984
1029
1113
1218
45
4.57%
84
8.16%
105
9.43%
96
144
159
159
48
50.00%
15
10.42%
0
0.00%
195
231
243
255
36
18.46%
12
5.19%
12
4.94%
City Centre City Port Hikurangi
Portland Tikipunga-Glenbervie Marsden Point - Ruakaka Matapouri McLeod Bay & Reotahi Ngunguru
207
273
330
360
66
31.88%
57
20.88%
30
9.09%
Oakura
132
159
129
183
27
20.45%
-30
-18.87%
54
41.86%
Parua Bay
204
237
306
387
33
16.18%
69
29.11%
81
26.47%
90
138
144
183
48
53.33%
6
4.35%
39
27.08%
Pataua Taurikura & Urquharts
150
189
183
204
39
26.00%
-6
-3.17%
21
11.48%
Tutukaka
228
288
291
342
60
26.32%
3
1.04%
51
17.53%
Waipu
327
372
393
492
45
13.76%
21
5.65%
99
25.19%
Waipu Cove & Langs Beach Total
Created 9 March 2007 Updated 18 January 2008
123
129
159
198
6
4.88%
30
23.26%
39
24.53%
18768
20250
21438
23430
1,482
7.90%
1,188
5.87%
1,992
9.29%
Page 60 of 98
Whangarei District Growth Model Table 31 High Occupied Dwelling Count Projections by Area Unit 1991 - 2041 1991
1996
2001
2006
2011
2016
2021
2026
2031
2036
2041
Abbey Caves
96
114
135
234
233
241
250
259
268
276
285
Bream Head
3,034
1,041
1,311
1,437
1,692
2,489
2,568
2,669
2,760
2,852
2,943
Hikurangi
417
435
465
468
508
517
537
556
574
592
611
Horahora
321
354
369
390
491
504
524
542
560
578
595
Kamo East
942
969
1,077
1,170
1,314
1,448
1,505
1,556
1,608
1,659
1,711
Kamo West
1,011
1,098
1,158
1,254
1,426
1,435
1,491
1,542
1,593
1,644
1,695
Kensington
546
576
576
528
711
713
741
766
792
817
842
Mairtown
939
1,026
1,068
1,074
1,245
1,281
1,331
1,377
1,422
1,468
1,513
Marsden Point-Ruakaka
951
993
1,062
1,152
1,434
1,976
2,569
3,322
3,936
4,404
4,720
Maungatapere
195
249
318
402
493
501
521
538
556
574
592
Maunu
399
423
471
507
683
683
710
734
758
783
807
Morningside
720
738
753
786
899
905
941
973
1,005
1,037
1,069
Ngunguru
402
507
561
636
998
1,056
1,098
1,135
1,173
1,210
1,248
Onerahi
669
717
762
753
928
943
980
1,014
1,047
1,081
1,114
Opouteke-Tanekaha
933
1,086
1,215
1,455
1,999
2,058
2,139
2,212
2,285
2,358
2,431
Otaika-Portland
222
270
330
351
428
436
453
469
484
500
515
Otangarei
657
648
639
663
702
711
739
764
790
815
840
Parahaki
399
417
420
387
517
527
548
566
585
604
623
Port-Limeburners
12
27
36
69
68
71
74
76
79
81
84
Punaruku-Kiripaka
879
1,113
1,218
1,281
2,159
2,297
2,387
2,469
2,551
2,632
2,714
Raumanga East
537
561
552
549
636
641
666
689
712
735
757
Raumanga West
885
912
924
942
1,143
1,192
1,239
1,281
1,324
1,366
1,408
Regent
684
711
729
723
839
847
880
910
941
971
1,001
Riverside
303
321
336
393
412
414
430
445
460
474
489
1,248
1,302
1,365
1,509
1,639
1,649
1,714
1,772
1,831
1,890
1,948 1,682
Sherwood Rise Springs Flat
309
357
378
501
516
622
628
997
1,298
1,527
Te Hihi
177
207
213
264
441
457
475
491
507
524
540
Three Mile Bush
96
108
162
207
423
440
457
473
489
504
520
Tikipunga East
897
945
1,014
1,104
1,239
1,247
1,296
1,340
1,385
1,429
1,473
Tikipunga West
846
894
951
1,041
1,175
1,216
1,264
1,307
1,350
1,393
1,437
Vinetown
669
684
696
699
773
775
805
833
861
888
916
Waiotira-Springfield
423
492
546
660
972
1,272
1,519
1,591
1,657
1,718
1,773
Waipu
576
630
723
912
1,348
1,519
1,594
1,751
1,886
1,999
2,089
Western Hills
63
69
69
147
117
117
122
126
130
134
138
Whangarei Central
45
39
48
93
69
69
72
74
77
79
82
Wharekohe-Oakleigh
651
828
939
1,284
1,754
1,812
1,883
1,948
2,012
2,076
2,141
Whau Valley
864
912
936
969
1,106
1,117
1,161
1,201
1,240
1,280
1,320
Woodhill
600
627
642
672
823
870
904
935
966
997
1,028
21,624
23,670
25,293
27,921
35,150
37,147
39,317
41,795
44,042
46,041
47,785
Grand Total
Created 9 March 2007 Updated 18 January 2008
Page 61 of 98
Whangarei District Growth Model Table 32 Medium Occupied Dwelling Count Projections by Area Unit 1991 - 2041 1991
1996
2001
2006
2011
2016
2021
2026
2031
2036
2041
Abbey Caves
96
114
135
234
235
241
249
255
261
267
273
Bream Head
2,463
1,041
1,311
1,437
1,692
2,098
2,158
2,226
2,286
2,345
2,404
Hikurangi
417
435
465
468
490
500
515
528
541
554
567
Horahora
321
354
369
390
442
453
467
480
492
504
516
Kamo East
942
969
1,077
1,170
1,247
1,328
1,369
1,404
1,440
1,475
1,510
Kamo West
1,011
1,098
1,158
1,254
1,345
1,365
1,407
1,442
1,478
1,514
1,549
Kensington
546
576
576
528
622
629
649
666
683
700
717
Mairtown
939
1,026
1,068
1,074
1,164
1,195
1,232
1,263
1,295
1,326
1,358
Marsden Point-Ruakaka
951
993
1,062
1,152
1,298
1,583
1,892
2,277
2,594
2,837
3,004
Maungatapere
195
249
318
402
449
458
472
484
497
509
521
Maunu
399
423
471
507
597
603
622
638
655
671
687
Morningside
720
738
753
786
846
858
885
907
929
952
974
Ngunguru
402
507
561
636
820
856
884
908
932
956
980
Onerahi
669
717
762
753
844
860
887
910
933
955
978
Opouteke-Tanekaha
933
1,086
1,215
1,455
1,733
1,780
1,836
1,885
1,933
1,981
2,030
Otaika-Portland
222
270
330
351
391
399
412
422
433
443
454
Otangarei
657
648
639
663
685
698
719
737
755
773
791
Parahaki
399
417
420
387
454
463
478
490
503
515
528
Port-Limeburners
12
27
36
69
69
71
73
75
77
79
81
Punaruku-Kiripaka
879
1,113
1,218
1,281
1,726
1,810
1,869
1,920
1,971
2,022
2,073
Raumanga East
537
561
552
549
595
604
622
638
654
670
686
Raumanga West
885
912
924
942
1,047
1,082
1,116
1,145
1,174
1,202
1,231
Regent
684
711
729
723
784
797
821
842
863
884
905
Riverside
303
321
336
393
404
410
422
433
443
454
464
Sherwood Rise
1,248
1,302
1,365
1,509
1,580
1,604
1,652
1,694
1,735
1,777
1,818
Springs Flat
309
357
378
501
511
570
578
766
921
1,040
1,121
Te Hihi
177
207
213
264
354
365
377
387
397
407
418
Three Mile Bush
96
108
162
207
316
327
338
347
357
366
376
Tikipunga East
897
945
1,014
1,104
1,176
1,194
1,230
1,261
1,292
1,323
1,354
Tikipunga West
846
894
951
1,041
1,112
1,146
1,181
1,211
1,241
1,271
1,301
Vinetown
669
684
696
699
739
748
771
791
810
829
849
Waiotira-Springfield
423
492
546
660
819
977
1,108
1,149
1,187
1,223
1,256
Waipu
576
630
723
912
1,134
1,230
1,278
1,364
1,439
1,502
1,554
Western Hills
63
69
69
147
133
134
138
142
145
148
151
Whangarei Central
45
39
48
93
81
83
85
87
89
91
93
Wharekohe-Oakleigh
651
828
939
1,284
1,525
1,569
1,618
1,661
1,704
1,746
1,789
Whau Valley
864
912
936
969
1,042
1,059
1,091
1,119
1,147
1,174
1,202
Woodhill Grand Total
600
627
642
672
750
782
806
827
848
869
890
21,624
23,670
25,293
27,921
31,656
32,992
34,377
35,841
37,190
38,414
39,511
Created 9 March 2007 Updated 18 January 2008
Page 62 of 98
Whangarei District Growth Model Table 33 Low Occupied Dwelling Count Projections by Area Unit 1991 - 2041 1991
1996
2001
2006
2011
2016
2021
2026
2031
2036
2041
Abbey Caves
96
114
135
234
236
242
247
250
254
258
262
Bream Head
1,893
1,041
1,311
1,437
1,692
1,707
1,748
1,784
1,811
1,838
1,866
Hikurangi
417
435
465
468
472
483
493
501
509
516
524
Horahora
321
354
369
390
393
403
411
417
424
430
436
Kamo East
942
969
1,077
1,170
1,180
1,208
1,234
1,252
1,271
1,290
1,309
Kamo West
1,011
1,098
1,158
1,254
1,265
1,295
1,322
1,342
1,363
1,383
1,403
Kensington
546
576
576
528
533
545
557
565
574
582
591
Mairtown
939
1,026
1,068
1,074
1,083
1,109
1,132
1,150
1,167
1,184
1,202
Marsden Point-Ruakaka
951
993
1,062
1,152
1,162
1,190
1,215
1,233
1,252
1,270
1,289
Maungatapere
195
249
318
402
405
415
424
430
437
443
450
Maunu
399
423
471
507
511
524
535
543
551
559
567
Morningside
720
738
753
786
793
812
829
841
854
867
879
Ngunguru
402
507
561
636
641
657
671
681
691
701
712
Onerahi
669
717
762
753
759
778
794
806
818
830
842
Opouteke-Tanekaha
933
1,086
1,215
1,455
1,468
1,503
1,534
1,557
1,581
1,604
1,628
Otaika-Portland
222
270
330
351
354
363
370
376
381
387
393
Otangarei
657
648
639
663
669
685
699
710
720
731
742
Parahaki
399
417
420
387
390
400
408
414
421
427
433
Port-Limeburners
12
27
36
69
70
71
73
74
75
76
77
Punaruku-Kiripaka
879
1,113
1,218
1,281
1,292
1,323
1,351
1,371
1,392
1,413
1,433
Raumanga East
537
561
552
549
554
567
579
588
597
605
614
Raumanga West
885
912
924
942
950
973
993
1,008
1,024
1,039
1,054
Regent
684
711
729
723
729
747
762
774
786
797
809
Riverside
303
321
336
393
396
406
414
421
427
433
440
Sherwood Rise
1,248
1,302
1,365
1,509
1,522
1,559
1,591
1,615
1,640
1,664
1,688
Springs Flat
309
357
378
501
505
517
528
536
544
552
561
Te Hihi
177
207
213
264
266
273
278
283
287
291
295
Three Mile Bush
96
108
162
207
209
214
218
222
225
228
232
Tikipunga East
897
945
1,014
1,104
1,113
1,140
1,164
1,182
1,200
1,217
1,235
Tikipunga West
846
894
951
1,041
1,050
1,075
1,098
1,114
1,131
1,148
1,165
Vinetown
669
684
696
699
705
722
737
748
760
771
782
Waiotira-Springfield
423
492
546
660
666
682
696
706
717
728
738
Waipu
576
630
723
912
920
942
962
976
991
1,006
1,020
Western Hills
63
69
69
147
148
152
155
157
160
162
164
Whangarei Central
45
39
48
93
94
96
98
100
101
103
104
Wharekohe-Oakleigh
651
828
939
1,284
1,295
1,326
1,354
1,374
1,395
1,416
1,436
Whau Valley
864
912
936
969
977
1,001
1,022
1,037
1,053
1,068
1,084
Woodhill Grand Total
600
627
642
672
678
694
708
719
730
741
752
21,624
23,670
25,293
27,921
28,161
28,837
29,437
29,887
30,338
30,787
31,237
Created 9 March 2007 Updated 18 January 2008
Page 63 of 98
Whangarei District Growth Model Table 34 High Dwelling Count Projections by Structure Plan Study Area 1991 – 2041 1991
1996
2001
2006
2011
2016
2021
2026
2031
2036
2041
1,695
1,731
1,767
1,815
2,115
2,164
2,249
2,326
2,403
2,480
2,557
City Centre
252
252
258
291
315
320
333
344
355
367
378
City Port
12
18
27
27
20
22
23
24
24
25
26
Hikurangi
462
486
525
546
605
618
641
683
721
755
785
Kamo-Three Mile Bush
3,102
3,390
3,708
4,140
5,050
5,296
5,490
5,874
6,220
6,525
6,788
Kensington
3,324
3,501
3,567
3,693
4,220
4,287
4,455
4,608
4,760
4,913
5,065
Maunu
1,146
1,266
1,371
1,569
2,095
2,130
2,214
2,289
2,365
2,441
2,517
Otaika-Toetoe
1,512
1,587
1,593
1,644
1,967
2,026
2,106
2,178
2,250
2,322
2,394
Parahaki-Onerahi
2,316
2,463
2,595
2,796
3,224
3,263
3,391
3,507
3,623
3,739
3,855
132
153
183
216
256
260
270
279
289
298
307
2,079
2,214
2,394
2,712
3,063
3,157
3,277
3,511
3,721
3,906
4,064
Marsden Point - Ruakaka
984
1,029
1,113
1,218
1,529
2,327
3,131
3,923
4,571
5,066
5,405
Matapouri
96
144
159
159
328
344
358
370
382
394
406
McLeod Bay & Reotahi
195
231
243
255
350
352
366
378
391
403
416
Ngunguru
207
273
330
360
547
570
592
613
633
653
673
Oakura
132
159
129
183
292
294
306
316
326
337
347
Parua Bay
204
237
306
387
508
532
553
572
591
610
629
Pataua
90
138
144
183
362
375
390
403
416
430
443
Taurikura & Urquharts
150
189
183
204
301
310
322
333
344
355
366
Tutukaka
228
288
291
342
542
589
612
633
654
675
696
Waipu
327
372
393
492
669
694
721
746
771
795
820
Avenues/Morningside
Portland Tikipunga-Glenbervie
Waipu Cove & Langs Beach Grand Total
Created 9 March 2007 Updated 18 January 2008
123
129
159
198
277
378
408
524
619
692
741
18,768
20,250
21,438
23,430
28,635
30,308
32,209
34,434
36,430
38,180
39,678
Page 64 of 98
Whangarei District Growth Model Table 35 Medium Dwelling Count Projections by Structure Plan Study Area 1991
1996
2001
2006
2011
2016
2021
2026
2031
2036
2041
1,695
1,731
1,767
1,815
1,973
2,019
2,081
2,134
2,188
2,241
2,294
City Centre
252
252
258
291
304
310
320
328
336
344
352
City Port
12
18
27
27
24
25
26
26
27
27
28
Hikurangi
462
486
525
546
578
591
608
634
657
679
698
Kamo-Three Mile Bush
3,102
3,390
3,708
4,140
4,613
4,786
4,927
5,153
5,359
5,545
5,710
Kensington
3,324
3,501
3,567
3,693
3,972
4,051
4,174
4,280
4,387
4,492
4,598
Maunu
1,146
1,266
1,371
1,569
1,839
1,875
1,934
1,984
2,035
2,085
2,136
Otaika-Toetoe
1,512
1,587
1,593
1,644
1,813
1,862
1,919
1,969
2,018
2,067
2,116
Parahaki-Onerahi
2,316
2,463
2,595
2,796
3,022
3,075
3,170
3,250
3,331
3,411
3,492
132
153
183
216
237
242
249
255
262
268
274
2,079
2,214
2,394
2,712
2,899
2,979
3,068
3,207
3,334
3,448
3,549
Marsden Point - Ruakaka
984
1,029
1,113
1,218
1,379
1,792
2,208
2,613
2,947
3,205
3,384
Matapouri
96
144
159
159
244
254
263
270
277
285
292
McLeod Bay & Reotahi
195
231
243
255
304
308
317
326
334
342
351
Ngunguru
207
273
330
360
455
471
486
499
512
525
538
Oakura
132
159
129
183
238
242
249
256
263
269
276
Parua Bay
204
237
306
387
449
466
480
493
506
518
531
Pataua
90
138
144
183
273
282
291
299
308
316
324
Taurikura & Urquharts
150
189
183
204
253
260
269
276
283
290
297
Tutukaka
228
288
291
342
443
471
486
500
513
526
539
Waipu
327
372
393
492
583
601
620
636
653
669
685
Avenues/Morningside
Portland Tikipunga-Glenbervie
Waipu Cove & Langs Beach Grand Total
Created 9 March 2007 Updated 18 January 2008
123
129
159
198
238
291
309
368
417
455
481
18,768
20,250
21,438
23,430
26,133
27,253
28,455
29,757
30,945
32,008
32,945
Page 65 of 98
Whangarei District Growth Model Table 36 Low Dwelling Count Projections by Structure Plan Study Area 1991
1996
2001
2006
2011
2016
2021
2026
2031
2036
2041
1,695
1,731
1,767
1,815
1,831
1,875
1,914
1,943
1,972
2,001
2,031
City Centre
252
252
258
291
294
301
307
311
316
321
326
City Port
12
18
27
27
27
28
28
29
29
30
30
Hikurangi
462
486
525
546
551
564
576
584
593
602
611
Kamo-Three Mile Bush
3,102
3,390
3,708
4,140
4,176
4,276
4,365
4,432
4,498
4,565
4,632
Kensington
3,324
3,501
3,567
3,693
3,725
3,814
3,893
3,953
4,013
4,072
4,132
Maunu
1,146
1,266
1,371
1,569
1,582
1,620
1,654
1,679
1,705
1,730
1,755
Otaika-Toetoe
1,512
1,587
1,593
1,644
1,658
1,698
1,733
1,760
1,786
1,813
1,839
Parahaki-Onerahi
2,316
2,463
2,595
2,796
2,820
2,888
2,948
2,993
3,038
3,083
3,128
132
153
183
216
218
223
228
231
235
238
242
2,079
2,214
2,394
2,712
2,735
2,801
2,859
2,903
2,947
2,990
3,034
Marsden Point - Ruakaka
984
1,029
1,113
1,218
1,228
1,258
1,284
1,304
1,323
1,343
1,363
Matapouri
96
144
159
159
160
164
168
170
173
175
178
McLeod Bay & Reotahi
195
231
243
255
257
263
269
273
277
281
285
Ngunguru
207
273
330
360
363
372
380
385
391
397
403
Oakura
132
159
129
183
185
189
193
196
199
202
205
Parua Bay
204
237
306
387
390
400
408
414
421
427
433
Pataua
90
138
144
183
185
189
193
196
199
202
205
Taurikura & Urquharts
150
189
183
204
206
211
215
218
222
225
228
Tutukaka
228
288
291
342
345
353
361
366
372
377
383
Waipu
327
372
393
492
496
508
519
527
535
543
550
Avenues/Morningside
Portland Tikipunga-Glenbervie
Waipu Cove & Langs Beach Grand Total
Created 9 March 2007 Updated 18 January 2008
123
129
159
198
200
204
209
212
215
218
222
18,768
20,250
21,438
23,430
23,631
24,199
24,702
25,080
25,459
25,835
26,213
Page 66 of 98
Whangarei District Growth Model 7. Landuse Capacity Tables Table 37 Taken to Reach District Plan Capacity by Area Unit Year of Capacity High Growth
Medium Growth
Abbey Caves
2072
2064
Low Growth 2057
Bream Head
2154
2227
2388
Hikurangi
2203
2525
2690
Horahora
2347
2515
2962
Kamo East
2138
2180
2249
Kamo West
2108
2137
2182
Kensington
2055
2106
2130
Mairtown
2033
2054
2124
Marsden Point-Ruakaka
2079
2149
3302
Maungatapere
2085
2090
2094
Maunu
2144
2206
2339
Morningside
2216
2258
2311
Ngunguru
2117
2198
2519
Onerahi
2139
2211
2353
Opouteke-Tanekaha
2648
2751
2872
Otaika-Portland
2189
2208
2227
Otangarei
1961
2038
2127
Parahaki
2176
2256
1915
Port-Limeburners
2269
2296
2325
Punaruku-Kiripaka
2280
2452
2982
Raumanga East
2038
2078
2124
Raumanga West
2255
2314
2333
Regent
2062
2100
2157
Riverside
2105
2134
2182
Sherwood Rise
2140
2174
2229
Springs Flat
2020
2032
2086
Te Hihi
2045
2075
2172
Three Mile Bush
2082
2122
2209
Tikipunga East
2173
2180
2178
Tikipunga West
2453
2477
2470
Vinetown
2047
2074
2153
Waiotira-Springfield
2278
2474
3348
Waipu
2179
2290
2644
Western Hills
2162
2156
2126
Whangarei Central
2003
1956
1953
Wharekohe-Oakleigh
2216
2266
2334
Whau Valley
2126
2169
2255
Woodhill
2075
2121
2282
Whangarei District
2184
2274
2497
Created 9 March 2007 Updated 18 January 2008
Page 67 of 98
Whangarei District Growth Model Table 38 Time Taken to Reach District Plan Capacity by Structure Plan Study Area Year of Capacity High Growth
Medium Growth
Avenues/Morningside
2103
2150
Low Growth 2264
City Centre
2083
2106
2133
City Port
1974
1956
1871
Hikurangi
2340
2492
2706
Kamo-Three Mile Bush
2094
2130
2199
Kensington
2076
2109
2183
Maunu
2069
2130
3170
Otaika-Toetoe
2160
2273
2701
Parahaki-Onerahi
2125
2179
2297
Portland
2178
2299
2632
Tikipunga-Glenbervie
2101
2159
2315
Marsden Point - Ruakaka
2238
2372
2744
Matapouri
2249
2303
2318
McLeod Bay & Reotahi
2148
2199
2301
Ngunguru
2133
2161
2195
Oakura
2130
2206
2411
Parua Bay
2355
2387
2418
Pataua
2244
2408
2833
Taurikura & Urquharts
2184
2221
2253
Tutukaka
2142
2247
2705
Waipu
2153
2233
2441
Waipu Cove & Langs Beach
2127
2234
2974
Structure Plan Areas
2123
2186
2360
Created 9 March 2007 Updated 18 January 2008
Page 68 of 98
Whangarei District Growth Model 1. Glossary of Terms District Plan Environments The current environments in the District Plan relating to this study are: Residential Environments: • Living 1 – The general urban areas of the District. Land can be subdivided down to a minimum of 500m 2 , where connection is available to reticulated wastewater services. •
Living 2 – High density residential areas close to CBD. Land can be subdivided down to a minimum of 350m 2, where connection is available to reticulated wastewater services.
•
Living 3 – Areas where development is restricted due to physical nature, lack of infrastructure or other values. Land can be subdivided down to a minimum of 2,000m 2 .
Business Environments: • Business 1 – Central Business District (CBD). Land can be subdivided down to a minimum of 100m 2 . •
Business 2 – Areas that fringe the CBD and includes light industry. Land can be subdivided down to a minimum of 300m2 .
•
Business 3 – Shopping centres outside the CBD and close to Living Environments. Land can be subdivided down to a minimum of 100m 2 .
•
Business 4 – Heavy industrial areas. Land can be subdivided down to a minimum of 1,000m 2 .
Compound annual growth Rate Compound annual growth Rate (CAGR) or cumulative annual growth rate is another term for the rate of return or interest rate variable in the formula Present value of a dollar and Future value of a dollar discussed at time value of money. It measures the rate of change in a value between two points in time(t and t 0 )..
In business, CAGR is used to describe the growth over a period of time of some element of the business, usually revenue, although other measures may be used (such as the number of units delivered, registered users, etc.). CAGR is not an accounting term, but remains widely used, particularly in growth industries. CAGR is preferable to applying more simplistic terms, such as "business doubled in three years", as it properly accounts for the effect of compounding. Linear Regression In statistics, linear regression is a regression method that models the relationship between a dependent variable Y, independent variables Xi, i = 1, ..., p, and a random term ε. The model can be written as
Created 9 March 2007 Updated 18 January 2008
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Whangarei District Growth Model where β1 is the intercept ("constant" term), the βis are the respective parameters of independent variables, and p is the number of parameters to be estimated in the linear regression. Linear regression can be contrasted with nonlinear regression. This method is called "linear" because the relation of the response (the dependent variable Y) to the independent variables is assumed to be a linear function of the parameters. It is often erroneously thought that the reason the technique is called "linear regression" is that the graph of Y = β0 + βx is a straight line or that Y is a linear function of the X variables. But if the model is (for example) the problem is still one of linear regression, that is, linear in x and x2 respectively, even though the graph on x by itself is not a straight line. Trend Line A trend line represents a trend, the long-term movement in time series data after other components have been accounted for. It tells whether a particular data set (say GDP, oil prices or stock prices) have increased or decreased over the period of time. A trend line could simply be drawn by eye through a set of data points, but more properly their position and slope is calculated using statistical techniques like linear regression. Trend lines typically are straight lines, although some variations use higher degree polynomials depending on the degree of curvature desired in the line. Trend lines are sometimes used in business analytics to show changes in data over time. This has the advantage of being simple. Trend lines are often used to argue that a particular action or event (such as training, or an advertising campaign) caused observed changes at a point in time. This is a simple technique, and does not require a control group, experimental design, or a sophisticated analysis technique. Area Unit
E
E
E
SEL WY NA VE
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S IL
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KA UI KA W
ES
W ES TE RN D OA IR
I VE HI LLS DR
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EW
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FI RS
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Area units are aggregations of meshblocks with unique names. They are non-administrative areas intermediate between meshblocks and territorial authorities. Area units must either define or aggregate to define urban areas, rural centres, statistical areas, territorial authorities and regional councils. Each area unit must be a single geographic entity with a unique name. Area units of main or secondary urban areas generally coincide with communities of interest or parts thereof. Area units within urban areas normally contain 3,000-5,000 population.
HE
VI O T
S
TR
TE
E
O IR MA
AD
ET
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Figure 24 Vinetown Area Unit
Created 9 March 2007 Updated 18 January 2008
Page 44 of 98
Whangarei District Growth Model Meshblock
AV EN ST R
R
U
N LA
R
E
E
SE
LW YN AV E
NU
S IL
I KA
AD RO
UE
KA UI KA
WE
ST
W ES TE R D OA IR
N HI LLS
C
TH
IR IK
AD
R E AV
R KI
RO
U FO
U KA
ON
AD RO
W
A
UE
E
EN AV
E
UE
AD RO
AD
AV EN
AV EN
S AY KE
RO
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AV EN U
T
U
FT
D
AV EN U
UN MA
FI
IR D
ON
T
ANZAC ROAD
EW
TH
FI RS
EE
R TA
SE C
WI NI
OL
W AT E
PO RO
E
HO
N
U
E
ET AV
SC
KE
TR E
AD RO NT
ST
M
The meshblock is the smallest geographic unit for which statistical data is collected and processed by Statistics New Zealand. A meshblock is a defined geographic area, varying in size from part of a city block to large areas of rural land. Each meshblock abuts against another to form a network covering all of New Zealand including coasts and inlets, and extending out to the two hundred mile economic zone. Meshblocks are added together to ‘build up’ larger geographic areas such as area units and urban areas. They are also the principal unit used to draw-up and define electoral district and local authority boundaries.
DRIVE
HE
VI O T
S
TR
TE
EE
O IR MA
AD
T
N U
Figure 25 Meshblocks within the Vinetown Area Unit For the purpose of this study, the Meshblocks within following Area Units were assessed for their growth and capacity:
Abbey Caves Bream Head Hikurangi Horahora Kamo East Kamo West Kensington Mairtown Marsden Point-Ruakaka Maungatapere Maunu Morningside Ngunguru
Onerahi Opouteke-Tanekaha Otaika-Portland Otangarei Parahaki Port-Limeburners Punaruku-Kiripaka Raumanga East Raumanga West Regent Riverside Sherwood Rise Springs Flat
Te Hihi Three Mile Bush Tikipunga East Tikipunga West Vinetown Waiotira-Springfield Waipu Western Hills Whangarei Central Wharekohe-Oakleigh Whau Valley Woodhill
Occupied Dwelling A dwelling is defined as occupied if it is: Occupied at midnight on the night of the data collection; or Occupied at any time during the twelve hours following midnight on the night of the data collection unless the occupant(s) completed a questionnaire at another dwelling during this period. A dwelling is defined for all other surveys, as occupied if it is: Occupied during the period of data collection. Created 9 March 2007 Updated 18 January 2008
Page 45 of 98
Whangarei District Growth Model Unoccupied Dwelling A dwelling is defined as unoccupied if it is: Unoccupied at all times during the twelve hours following midnight on the night of the data collection; and is Suitable for habitation. Usually Resident Population Count A count of all people who usually live in a given area, and are present in New Zealand, on a given census night. The census usually resident population count of New Zealand excludes visitors from overseas and excludes New Zealand residents who are temporarily overseas. For a http://www2.stats.govt.nz/domino/external/omni/omni.nsf/55552a258bc2e5514c25689b0018524c/38 70f9cdf55ef316cc256c5c0005f5b1?OpenDocumentsubnational area the count excludes visitors from overseas and elsewhere in New Zealand (people who do not usually live in that area), but includes residents of that area who are temporarily elsewhere in New Zealand on census night (people who usually live in that area but are absent). Residents are counted at the meshblock (smallest geographic area for statistical purposes) of their usual address. If insufficient information about a person's usual address is given, then the geographic information that is available is used to select (impute) a meshblock within that area. Census Night Population Count A count of all people who usually live in a given area, and are present in New Zealand, on a given census night. The census usually resident population count of New Zealand excludes visitors from overseas and excludes New Zealand residents who are temporarily overseas. For a http://www2.stats.govt.nz/domino/external/omni/omni.nsf/55552a258bc2e5514c25689b0018524c/38 70f9cdf55ef316cc256c5c0005f5b1?OpenDocumentsubnational area the count excludes visitors from overseas and elsewhere in New Zealand (people who do not usually live in that area), but includes residents of that area who are temporarily elsewhere in New Zealand on census night (people who usually live in that area but are absent). Residents are counted at the meshblock (smallest geographic area for statistical purposes) of their usual address. If insufficient information about a person's usual address is given, then the geographic information that is available is used to select (impute) a meshblock within that area.
Created 9 March 2007 Updated 18 January 2008
Page 46 of 98
Whangarei District Growth Model 2. Statistics New Zealand Projection Methodology Introduction Demographic projections are neither predictions nor forecasts. They represent the statistical outcomes of various combinations of selected assumptions about future changes in various dynamics of population change. These assumptions are formulated from the latest demographic trends and patterns, as well as international experiences. Given the uncertainties about future trends in fertility, mortality and migration and their determinants, Statistics New Zealand derives a range of alternative demographic scenarios. However, because of space restrictions, in each case only one series has been cited here. In general, the chosen series conveys the broad features of likely future dynamics and patterns. Projections do not take into account non-demographic factors such as war and catastrophe that may invalidate the projections. Population trends and patterns are monitored regularly and, when it is necessary, the projections are revised to incorporate new demographic evidence. In summary, the main prospects in the coming decades are for continuing low fertility, slower population growth, further longevity gains, smaller households, increasing ethnic diversity, an ageing population, an older labour force, and a further concentration of population in the northern North Island. Notes: Derived figures such as percentage changes have been produced using data of greater precision than what is published. The figures may differ slightly from those derived using rounded data. All projection data has a reference date of 30 June. Subnational Population Projections, 2001(base)–2026 In addition to the national projections, Statistics New Zealand produces population projections for various subnational areas. The latest projections of the population living in subnational areas was released in February 2005 and covers the 16 regional council and 74 territorial authority areas of New Zealand. Three alternative projection series (designated low, medium and high) were produced for each area incorporating different fertility, mortality and migration assumptions reflecting each area's unique socio-demographic characteristics. The following results are based on the medium series. Of New Zealand's 74 territorial authorities, 39 are projected to have more people in 2026 than in 2001. However population growth will generally slow over the projection period. While 48 territorial authorities are projected in increase in population between 2001 and 2006, this will reduce to 33 between 2021 and 2026. An important factor in the slowing of population growth is the narrowing gap between births and deaths. Nationally, natural increase (births minus deaths) is projected to decrease from 141,000 in the five years ended June 2006 to 86,000 during 2022–2026. Just 13 territorial authorities are projected to have more births in 2022-2026 than in 2002-2006. In contrast, the number of deaths is expected to increase in almost all territorial authorities, because of the increasing number of people born after World War II reaching the older ages. While three territorial authorities (Horowhenua, Waimate and Waitaki districts) experienced more deaths than births in the five years ended December 2004, this number is expected to increase to 24 by 2022-2026. Auckland region is projected to account for two-thirds of New Zealand's population growth between 2001 and 2026, increasing from 1.22 million to 1.77 million people. Auckland region would then be home to 37 percent of New Zealand's population in 2026, compared with 31 percent in 2001. While the four cities in the Auckland region (Auckland, Manukau, Waitakere and North Shore) are projected to have the highest numerical growth of New Zealand's territorial authorities, the highest percentage growth in population is projected for Queenstown-Lakes District. Between 2001 and 2026, the population of Queenstown-Lakes District is projected to increase by 79 percent, from 18,000 to 32,000. Over the same period, growth of more than 50 percent is also projected for Rodney District,
Created 9 March 2007 Updated 18 January 2008
Page 47 of 98
Whangarei District Growth Model Selwyn District and Manukau City. Natural increase will contribute most of the population growth in Manukau City, while net migration gains will be most important in Queenstown-Lakes, Rodney and Selwyn districts. The largest percentage decreases in population between 2001 and 2026 are projected for the districts of Kawerau (down 27 percent), Ruapehu (down 26 percent), Wairoa and South Waikato (both down 22 percent). These areas are all likely to have shrinking natural increase and continuing net migration outflows, although these outflows are assumed to be smaller than experienced historically. The population of all territorial authorities will be older in future. All territorial authorities are projected to have more older people (aged 65 years and over) in 2026 than in 2001, while the majority will also have fewer children (aged under 15 years). The working-age population (defined as 15-64 years) will also get older as the large number of people born after World War II move through this age group. In 2026, the median age of the population is projected to be oldest in Central Otago District, at 57 years. In 2001, the oldest median age was 44 years in Thames-Coromandel District. Hamilton City is projected to have the youngest median age of 35 years in 2026, compared with the youngest median age in 2001 of 30 years in Kawerau District. The oldest median ages are generally in areas experiencing low fertility and/or a net outflow of young adults (aged 15-29 years) and a net inflow of people aged 35-74 years. The youngest median ages are generally in areas experiencing high fertility and/or a net inflow of young adults (such as cities with a university). Method and assumptions The cohort component method has been used to derive the population projections. In this method the base population is projected forward by calculating the effect of deaths and migration within each age-sex group according to specified mortality and migration assumptions. New birth cohorts are generated by applying specified fertility assumptions to the female population of childbearing age. Projection assumptions are formulated after analysis of short- and long-term historical trends, government policy, information provided by local planners (eg housing subdivisions, zoning changes, commencement/expansion/closure of industries) and other relevant information which may affect population change in each area. The projections incorporate the latest demographic information available at the time of production, including subnational population estimates at 30 June 2004, and birth and death registrations to December 2004. The assumed fertility and mortality rates are based on the registered births and deaths, respectively, for each area to 2004. The assumed rates are also consistent with the assumed rates for higher geographic levels (ie medium fertility and mortality variants for each territorial authority and New Zealand). Migration at the subnational level has both external migration and internal migration components, although these separate components are difficult to quantify because of insufficient data. The assumed future net migration for each area is based on a consideration of observed net migration during each five-year period from 1981 to 2001, the capacity of the area for further growth (for areas with net inflow), whether historical outflows can be sustained (for areas with net outflow), the desirability of the area to new migrants, and information available from and about local authority areas relating to current and future developments which may affect population change.
Created 9 March 2007 Updated 18 January 2008
Page 48 of 98
Whangarei District Growth Model 4.
Regression Analysis - Population and Dwellings vs. Building Consents and New Lots 350
600
250 200 150 100 50 0 -100
500
Building Consents
300 Building Consents
700
2
R = 0.6346
300 200 100 -400
-50 0
100
200
300
400
0 -200 -100 0
600
450 400
2
R = 0.2562
800
1,000
2
R = 0.2207
350 300 New Lots
New Lots
400
Population
350 300 250 200 150 100
250 200 150 100 50
50 0 -100
200
-200
Dwellings
450 400
2
R = 0.5983
400
0
100
200
Dwellings
Created 9 March 2007 Updated 18 January 2008
300
400
-400
0 -200 -50 0
200
400
600
800
Population
Page 49 of 98
1,000
Whangarei District Growth Model 5.
Household Tables - Population
Table 20 Usually Resident Population Growth Rates by Area Unit 1991
1996
2001
2006
1991-1996
1996-2001
2001-2006
Number
Percent
Number
Percent
Number
279
360
405
666
81
29.03%
45
12.50%
261
64.44%
Bream Head
2,811
3,576
3,759
4,290
765
27.21%
183
5.12%
531
14.13%
Hikurangi
1,359
1,383
1,362
1,359
24
1.77%
-21
-1.52%
-3
-0.22%
Horahora
1,005
957
978
1,023
-48
-4.78%
21
2.19%
45
4.60%
Kamo East
2,808
2,814
3,039
3,165
6
0.21%
225
8.00%
126
4.15%
Kamo West
2,754
2,790
2,868
3,150
36
1.31%
78
2.80%
282
9.83%
Kensington
1,263
1,302
1,287
1,176
39
3.09%
-15
-1.15%
-111
-8.62%
Mairtown
2,091
2,322
2,346
2,358
231
11.05%
24
1.03%
12
0.51%
Marsden Point-Ruakaka
2,691
2,766
2,661
2,913
75
2.79%
-105
-3.80%
252
9.47%
648
837
963
1,155
189
29.17%
126
15.05%
192
19.94%
Maunu
1,113
1,236
1,302
1,350
123
11.05%
66
5.34%
48
3.69%
Morningside
2,034
2,049
2,067
2,142
15
0.74%
18
0.88%
75
3.63%
Ngunguru
1,017
1,266
1,287
1,422
249
24.48%
21
1.66%
135
10.49%
Onerahi
2,025
2,112
2,007
1,974
87
4.30%
-105
-4.97%
-33
-1.64%
Opouteke-Tanekaha
3,126
3,486
3,813
4,485
360
11.52%
327
9.38%
672
17.62%
Abbey Caves
Maungatapere
Percent
720
822
978
996
102
14.17%
156
18.98%
18
1.84%
Otangarei
2,217
2,250
2,034
2,253
33
1.49%
-216
-9.60%
219
10.77%
Parahaki
1,164
1,170
1,176
1,014
6
0.52%
6
0.51%
-162
-13.78%
36
33
54
141
-3
-8.33%
21
63.64%
87
161.11%
Punaruku-Kiripaka
2,526
3,087
3,282
3,489
561
22.21%
195
6.32%
207
6.31%
Raumanga East
1,755
1,758
1,656
1,656
3
0.17%
-102
-5.80%
0
0.00%
Raumanga West
2,889
2,955
2,805
2,994
66
2.28%
-150
-5.08%
189
6.74%
Regent
1,650
1,857
1,728
1,674
207
12.55%
-129
-6.95%
-54
-3.13% 16.21%
Otaika-Portland
Port-Limeburners
729
789
759
882
60
8.23%
-30
-3.80%
123
3,579
3,507
3,495
3,753
-72
-2.01%
-12
-0.34%
258
7.38%
Springs Flat
954
1,038
1,182
1,428
84
8.81%
144
13.87%
246
20.81%
Te Hihi
468
570
516
654
102
21.79%
-54
-9.47%
138
26.74%
Riverside Sherwood Rise
336
405
528
645
69
20.54%
123
30.37%
117
22.16%
Tikipunga East
2,817
2,856
2,790
3,096
39
1.38%
-66
-2.31%
306
10.97%
Tikipunga West
2,625
2,652
2,880
3,024
27
1.03%
228
8.60%
144
5.00%
Vinetown
1,434
1,437
1,437
1,521
3
0.21%
0
0.00%
84
5.85%
Waiotira-Springfield
1,416
1,503
1,554
1,851
87
6.14%
51
3.39%
297
19.11%
Waipu
1,554
1,743
1,899
2,271
189
12.16%
156
8.95%
372
19.59%
Three Mile Bush
Western Hills
204
213
195
399
9
4.41%
-18
-8.45%
204
104.62%
Whangarei Central
177
201
150
213
24
13.56%
-51
-25.37%
63
42.00%
Wharekohe-Oakleigh
2,076
2,565
2,796
3,576
489
23.55%
231
9.01%
780
27.90%
Whau Valley
2,331
2,382
2,394
2,469
51
2.19%
12
0.50%
75
3.13%
Woodhill Total Whangarei
Created 9 March 2007 Updated 18 January 2008
1,521
1,647
1,638
1,644
126
8.28%
-9
-0.55%
6
0.37%
62,202
66,696
68,070
74,271
4,494
7.22%
1,374
2.06%
6,201
9.11%
Page 50 of 98
Whangarei District Growth Model
Table 21 Usually Resident Population Growth Rates by Structure Plan Study Area 1991 Avenues/Morningside
1996
2001
2006
1991-1996
1996-2001
2001-2006
Number
Percent
Number
Percent
Number
Percent
75
1.74%
-27
-0.62%
186
4.27%
4,305
4,380
4,353
4,539
774
765
717
726
-9
-1.16%
-48
-6.27%
9
1.26%
24
21
27
27
-3
-12.50%
6
28.57%
0
0.00%
Hikurangi
1,527
1,545
1,554
1,572
18
1.18%
9
0.58%
18
1.16%
Kamo-Three Mile Bush
8,940
9,450
10,110
11,106
510
5.70%
660
6.98%
996
9.85%
Kensington
8,352
8,973
8,628
9,039
621
7.44%
-345
-3.84%
411
4.76%
Maunu
3,207
3,510
3,633
4,047
303
9.45%
123
3.50%
414
11.40%
Otaika-Toetoe
4,917
5,010
4,812
5,091
93
1.89%
-198
-3.95%
279
5.80%
Parahaki-Onerahi
6,765
6,900
6,795
7,161
135
2.00%
-105
-1.52%
366
5.39%
468
498
540
606
30
6.41%
42
8.43%
66
12.22%
Tikipunga-Glenbervie
6,525
6,645
6,969
7,794
120
1.84%
324
4.88%
825
11.84%
Marsden Point - Ruakaka
City Centre City Port
Portland
2,808
2,892
2,835
3,114
84
2.99%
-57
-1.97%
279
9.84%
Matapouri
198
312
315
372
114
57.58%
3
0.96%
57
18.10%
McLeod Bay & Reotahi
486
597
609
582
111
22.84%
12
2.01%
-27
-4.43%
Ngunguru
552
663
786
846
111
20.11%
123
18.55%
60
7.63%
Oakura
369
435
348
462
66
17.89%
-87
-20.00%
114
32.76%
Parua Bay
612
705
867
1,068
93
15.20%
162
22.98%
201
23.18%
Pataua
234
372
393
480
138
58.97%
21
5.65%
87
22.14%
Taurikura & Urquharts
390
522
471
486
132
33.85%
-51
-9.77%
15
3.18%
Tutukaka
570
753
657
753
183
32.11%
-96
-12.75%
96
14.61%
Waipu
912
1,017
1,029
1,188
105
11.51%
12
1.18%
159
15.45%
Waipu Cove & Langs Beach Total
Created 9 March 2007 Updated 18 January 2008
306
336
396
450
30
9.80%
60
17.86%
54
13.64%
53,241
56,301
56,844
61,509
3,060
5.75%
543
0.96%
4,665
8.21%
Page 51 of 98
Whangarei District Growth Model Table 22 High Population Projections by Area Unit 1991 - 2041 1991
1996
2001
2006
2011
2016
2021
2026
2031
2036
2041
Abbey Caves
279
360
405
666
559
578
601
622
642
663
683
Bream Head
2,811
3,576
3,759
4,290
5,974
6,163
6,405
6,624
6,844
7,063
7,282
Hikurangi
1,359
1,383
1,362
1,359
1,219
1,241
1,290
1,334
1,378
1,422
1,466
Horahora
1,005
957
978
1,023
1,178
1,210
1,257
1,300
1,343
1,386
1,429
Kamo East
2,808
2,814
3,039
3,165
3,154
3,475
3,612
3,735
3,859
3,982
4,106
Kamo West
2,754
2,790
2,868
3,150
3,422
3,444
3,579
3,702
3,824
3,947
4,069
Kensington
1,263
1,302
1,287
1,176
1,706
1,711
1,778
1,839
1,900
1,961
2,022
Mairtown
2,091
2,322
2,346
2,358
2,988
3,074
3,195
3,305
3,414
3,523
3,632
Marsden Point-Ruakaka
2,691
2,766
2,661
2,913
3,590
4,890
6,315
8,120
9,594
10,717
11,476
Maungatapere Maunu
648
837
963
1,155
1,183
1,202
1,250
1,292
1,335
1,378
1,421
1,113
1,236
1,302
1,350
1,639
1,639
1,704
1,762
1,820
1,878
1,937
Morningside
2,034
2,049
2,067
2,142
2,158
2,172
2,257
2,335
2,412
2,489
2,566
Ngunguru
1,017
1,266
1,287
1,422
2,395
2,534
2,634
2,724
2,814
2,904
2,994
Onerahi
2,025
2,112
2,007
1,974
2,227
2,263
2,352
2,433
2,513
2,594
2,674
Opouteke-Tanekaha
3,126
3,486
3,813
4,485
4,798
4,939
5,133
5,309
5,485
5,660
5,836
720
822
978
996
1,027
1,046
1,088
1,125
1,162
1,199
1,236
Otangarei
2,217
2,250
2,034
2,253
1,685
1,706
1,773
1,834
1,895
1,955
2,016
Parahaki
1,494
Otaika-Portland
1,164
1,170
1,176
1,014
1,241
1,265
1,315
1,359
1,404
1,449
Port-Limeburners
36
33
54
141
163
170
177
183
189
195
201
Punaruku-Kiripaka
2,526
3,087
3,282
3,489
5,182
5,513
5,729
5,925
6,122
6,317
6,513
Raumanga East
1,755
1,758
1,656
1,656
1,526
1,538
1,599
1,654
1,708
1,763
1,818
Raumanga West
2,889
2,955
2,805
2,994
2,743
2,861
2,973
3,075
3,177
3,278
3,380
Regent
1,650
1,857
1,728
1,674
2,014
2,033
2,113
2,185
2,257
2,329
2,402
729
789
759
882
989
994
1,033
1,068
1,103
1,139
1,174
Riverside Sherwood Rise
3,579
3,507
3,495
3,753
3,934
3,958
4,113
4,254
4,395
4,535
4,676
Springs Flat
954
1,038
1,182
1,428
1,464
1,719
1,733
2,618
3,340
3,891
4,263
Te Hihi
468
570
516
654
1,058
1,097
1,140
1,179
1,218
1,257
1,296 1,248
Three Mile Bush
336
405
528
645
1,015
1,056
1,098
1,135
1,173
1,210
Tikipunga East
2,817
2,856
2,790
3,096
2,974
2,993
3,110
3,217
3,323
3,430
3,536
Tikipunga West
2,625
2,652
2,880
3,024
2,820
2,918
3,033
3,137
3,241
3,344
3,448
Vinetown
1,434
1,437
1,437
1,521
1,855
1,860
1,933
1,999
2,065
2,131
2,198
Waiotira-Springfield
1,416
1,503
1,554
1,851
2,360
3,081
3,674
3,846
4,006
4,151
4,282
Waipu
1,554
1,743
1,899
2,271
3,210
3,646
3,826
4,202
4,527
4,798
5,013
204
213
195
399
281
281
292
302
312
322
332
Western Hills Whangarei Central
177
201
150
213
166
166
172
178
184
190
196
Wharekohe-Oakleigh
2,076
2,565
2,796
3,576
4,210
4,349
4,520
4,674
4,829
4,984
5,138
Whau Valley
2,331
2,382
2,394
2,469
2,654
2,681
2,786
2,881
2,977
3,072
3,167
Woodhill Grand Total
1,521
1,647
1,638
1,644
1,975
2,088
2,170
2,244
2,319
2,393
2,467
62,202
66,696
68,070
74,271
84,736
89,555
94,762
100,710
106,103
110,900
115,086
Created 9 March 2007 Updated 18 January 2008
Page 52 of 98
Whangarei District Growth Model Table 23 Medium Population Projections by Area Unit 1991 - 2041 1991
1996
2001
2006
2011
2016
2021
2026
2031
2036
2041
Abbey Caves
279
360
405
666
615
633
652
667
683
699
714
Bream Head
2,811
3,576
3,759
4,290
5,150
5,297
5,464
5,608
5,753
5,897
6,041
Hikurangi
1,359
1,383
1,362
1,359
1,295
1,322
1,361
1,394
1,427
1,460
1,493
Horahora
1,005
957
978
1,023
1,105
1,133
1,168
1,198
1,227
1,257
1,287
Kamo East
2,808
2,814
3,039
3,165
3,173
3,372
3,474
3,562
3,649
3,736
3,823
Kamo West
2,754
2,790
2,868
3,150
3,300
3,349
3,450
3,537
3,624
3,710
3,797
Kensington
1,263
1,302
1,287
1,176
1,446
1,463
1,509
1,549
1,589
1,629
1,669
Mairtown
2,091
2,322
2,346
2,358
2,683
2,755
2,841
2,914
2,988
3,062
3,135
Marsden Point-Ruakaka
2,691
2,766
2,661
2,913
3,264
3,949
4,693
5,619
6,380
6,964
7,368
648
837
963
1,155
1,174
1,198
1,234
1,264
1,295
1,326
1,356
1,113
1,236
1,302
1,350
1,500
1,517
1,563
1,603
1,644
1,684
1,724
Maungatapere Maunu Morningside
2,034
2,049
2,067
2,142
2,159
2,192
2,258
2,314
2,370
2,425
2,481
Ngunguru
1,017
1,266
1,287
1,422
1,915
2,002
2,067
2,123
2,180
2,236
2,293
Onerahi
2,025
2,112
2,007
1,974
2,109
2,151
2,217
2,273
2,329
2,385
2,441
Opouteke-Tanekaha
3,126
3,486
3,813
4,485
4,661
4,786
4,931
5,055
5,179
5,303
5,427
720
822
978
996
1,016
1,038
1,069
1,095
1,122
1,149
1,175
Otangarei
2,217
2,250
2,034
2,253
1,979
2,017
2,074
2,123
2,171
2,220
2,268
Parahaki
1,314
Otaika-Portland
1,164
1,170
1,176
1,014
1,132
1,156
1,192
1,222
1,253
1,284
Port-Limeburners
36
33
54
141
153
158
163
167
171
175
180
Punaruku-Kiripaka
2,526
3,087
3,282
3,489
4,350
4,558
4,704
4,830
4,956
5,082
5,208
Raumanga East
1,755
1,758
1,656
1,656
1,598
1,624
1,672
1,713
1,754
1,794
1,835
Raumanga West
2,889
2,955
2,805
2,994
2,881
2,977
3,065
3,140
3,215
3,290
3,365
Regent
1,650
1,857
1,728
1,674
1,851
1,881
1,939
1,988
2,038
2,088
2,137
729
789
759
882
939
952
981
1,006
1,031
1,056
1,080 4,437
Riverside Sherwood Rise
3,579
3,507
3,495
3,753
3,859
3,917
4,035
4,136
4,236
4,337
Springs Flat
954
1,038
1,182
1,428
1,452
1,597
1,619
2,073
2,446
2,733
2,930
Te Hihi
468
570
516
654
859
886
915
939
964
989
1,014
Three Mile Bush Tikipunga East
336
405
528
645
833
861
889
913
937
961
985
2,817
2,856
2,790
3,096
3,048
3,095
3,187
3,265
3,344
3,422
3,500
Tikipunga West
2,625
2,652
2,880
3,024
2,935
3,021
3,111
3,187
3,263
3,339
3,416
Vinetown
1,434
1,437
1,437
1,521
1,695
1,715
1,768
1,814
1,859
1,904
1,950
Waiotira-Springfield
1,416
1,503
1,554
1,851
2,114
2,496
2,813
2,914
3,008
3,096
3,177
Waipu
1,554
1,743
1,899
2,271
2,750
2,996
3,110
3,317
3,497
3,651
3,777
204
213
195
399
342
346
356
364
373
381
389
Western Hills Whangarei Central
177
201
150
213
190
193
198
203
208
212
217
Wharekohe-Oakleigh
2,076
2,565
2,796
3,576
3,908
4,021
4,145
4,251
4,357
4,463
4,569
Whau Valley
2,331
2,382
2,394
2,469
2,572
2,615
2,695
2,762
2,830
2,897
2,965
Woodhill Grand Total
1,521
1,647
1,638
1,644
1,817
1,893
1,952
2,002
2,052
2,103
2,153
62,202
66,696
68,070
74,271
79,823
83,131
86,532
90,105
93,402
96,398
99,089
Created 9 March 2007 Updated 18 January 2008
Page 53 of 98
Whangarei District Growth Model Table 24 Low Population Projections by Area Unit 1991 – 2041 1991
1996
2001
2006
2011
2016
2021
2026
2031
2036
2041
Abbey Caves
279
360
405
666
672
688
702
713
724
734
745
Bream Head
2,811
3,576
3,759
4,290
4,327
4,431
4,523
4,592
4,661
4,730
4,799
Hikurangi
1,359
1,383
1,362
1,359
1,371
1,404
1,433
1,455
1,477
1,499
1,520
Horahora
1,005
957
978
1,023
1,032
1,057
1,079
1,095
1,112
1,128
1,144
Kamo East
2,808
2,814
3,039
3,165
3,192
3,269
3,337
3,388
3,439
3,490
3,541
Kamo West
2,754
2,790
2,868
3,150
3,177
3,253
3,321
3,372
3,423
3,473
3,524
Kensington
1,263
1,302
1,287
1,176
1,186
1,215
1,240
1,259
1,278
1,297
1,316
Mairtown
2,091
2,322
2,346
2,358
2,378
2,435
2,486
2,524
2,562
2,600
2,638
Marsden Point-Ruakaka
2,691
2,766
2,661
2,913
2,938
3,009
3,071
3,118
3,165
3,212
3,259
648
837
963
1,155
1,165
1,193
1,218
1,236
1,255
1,274
1,292
1,113
1,236
1,302
1,350
1,362
1,394
1,423
1,445
1,467
1,489
1,510
Maungatapere Maunu Morningside
2,034
2,049
2,067
2,142
2,160
2,212
2,258
2,293
2,327
2,362
2,396
Ngunguru
1,017
1,266
1,287
1,422
1,434
1,469
1,499
1,522
1,545
1,568
1,591
Onerahi
2,025
2,112
2,007
1,974
1,991
2,039
2,081
2,113
2,145
2,177
2,208
Opouteke-Tanekaha
3,126
3,486
3,813
4,485
4,524
4,632
4,728
4,801
4,873
4,945
5,018
720
822
978
996
1,005
1,029
1,050
1,066
1,082
1,098
1,114
Otangarei
2,217
2,250
2,034
2,253
2,272
2,327
2,375
2,412
2,448
2,484
2,521
Parahaki
1,134
Otaika-Portland
1,164
1,170
1,176
1,014
1,023
1,047
1,069
1,085
1,102
1,118
Port-Limeburners
36
33
54
141
142
146
149
151
153
155
158
Punaruku-Kiripaka
2,526
3,087
3,282
3,489
3,519
3,603
3,678
3,735
3,791
3,847
3,903
Raumanga East
1,755
1,758
1,656
1,656
1,670
1,710
1,746
1,773
1,799
1,826
1,853
Raumanga West
2,889
2,955
2,805
2,994
3,020
3,092
3,157
3,205
3,253
3,301
3,350
Regent
1,650
1,857
1,728
1,674
1,688
1,729
1,765
1,792
1,819
1,846
1,873
729
789
759
882
890
911
930
944
958
973
987
Riverside Sherwood Rise
3,579
3,507
3,495
3,753
3,785
3,876
3,957
4,017
4,078
4,138
4,199
Springs Flat
954
1,038
1,182
1,428
1,440
1,475
1,506
1,529
1,552
1,575
1,598
Te Hihi
468
570
516
654
660
675
690
700
711
721
732
Three Mile Bush Tikipunga East
336
405
528
645
651
666
680
690
701
711
722
2,817
2,856
2,790
3,096
3,123
3,198
3,264
3,314
3,364
3,414
3,464
Tikipunga West
2,625
2,652
2,880
3,024
3,050
3,123
3,188
3,237
3,286
3,334
3,383
Vinetown
1,434
1,437
1,437
1,521
1,534
1,571
1,604
1,628
1,653
1,677
1,702
Waiotira-Springfield
1,416
1,503
1,554
1,851
1,867
1,912
1,951
1,981
2,011
2,041
2,071
Waipu
1,554
1,743
1,899
2,271
2,291
2,346
2,394
2,431
2,468
2,504
2,541
204
213
195
399
402
412
421
427
434
440
446
Western Hills Whangarei Central
177
201
150
213
215
220
225
228
231
235
238
Wharekohe-Oakleigh
2,076
2,565
2,796
3,576
3,607
3,693
3,770
3,828
3,886
3,943
4,001
Whau Valley
2,331
2,382
2,394
2,469
2,490
2,550
2,603
2,643
2,683
2,722
2,762
Woodhill Grand Total
1,521
1,647
1,638
1,644
1,658
1,698
1,733
1,760
1,786
1,813
1,839
62,202
66,696
68,070
74,271
74,910
76,708
78,303
79,501
80,702
81,896
83,092
Created 9 March 2007 Updated 18 January 2008
Page 54 of 98
Whangarei District Growth Model Table 25 High Population Projections by Structure Plan Study Area 1991 – 2041 1991
1996
2001
2006
2011
2016
2021
2026
2031
2036
2041
4,305
4,380
4,353
4,539
5,076
5,194
5,398
5,582
5,767
5,952
6,136
City Centre
774
765
717
726
756
768
798
825
853
880
907
City Port
24
21
27
27
48
53
55
57
59
61
62
Hikurangi
1,527
1,545
1,554
1,572
1,468
1,499
1,555
1,656
1,747
1,829
1,900
Kamo-Three Mile Bush
8,940
9,450
10,110
11,106
12,229
12,819
13,285
14,206
15,036
15,769
16,400
Kensington
8,352
8,973
8,628
9,039
10,128
10,289
10,693
11,059
11,425
11,791
12,156
Maunu
2,808
2,892
2,835
3,114
3,845
5,761
7,691
9,590
11,145
12,335
13,147
Avenues/Morningside
198
312
315
372
787
826
858
887
917
946
975
3,207
3,510
3,633
4,047
5,028
5,112
5,313
5,495
5,676
5,858
6,040
Portland
486
597
609
582
840
845
878
908
938
968
998
Tikipunga-Glenbervie
552
663
786
846
1,313
1,368
1,422
1,470
1,519
1,568
1,616
Otaika-Toetoe Parahaki-Onerahi
369
435
348
462
701
706
733
758
784
809
834
Matapouri
4,917
5,010
4,812
5,091
4,721
4,862
5,053
5,226
5,399
5,572
5,745
McLeod Bay & Reotahi
6,765
6,900
6,795
7,161
7,738
7,831
8,139
8,417
8,696
8,974
9,252
Ngunguru
612
705
867
1,068
1,219
1,277
1,327
1,372
1,418
1,463
1,509
Oakura
234
372
393
480
869
900
935
967
999
1,031
1,063
Parua Bay
468
498
540
606
614
624
649
671
693
715
737
Marsden Point - Ruakaka
Pataua Taurikura & Urquharts
390
522
471
486
722
744
773
800
826
853
879
6,525
6,645
6,969
7,794
7,435
7,659
7,949
8,510
9,014
9,457
9,837
Tutukaka
570
753
657
753
1,301
1,414
1,469
1,519
1,570
1,620
1,670
Waipu
912
1,017
1,029
1,188
1,606
1,666
1,731
1,790
1,850
1,909
1,968
Waipu Cove & Langs Beach Grand Total
Created 9 March 2007 Updated 18 January 2008
306
336
396
450
640
907
980
1,259
1,487
1,660
1,777
53,241
56,301
56,844
61,509
69,083
73,123
77,685
83,027
87,817
92,017
95,610
Page 55 of 98
Whangarei District Growth Model Table 26 Medium Population Projections by Structure Plan Study Area 1991
1996
2001
2006
2011
2016
2021
2026
2031
2036
2041
4,305
4,380
4,353
4,539
4,827
4,941
5,092
5,220
5,350
5,478
5,607
City Centre
774
765
717
726
744
759
782
801
821
840
860
City Port
24
21
27
27
38
40
42
43
44
45
46
Hikurangi
1,527
1,545
1,554
1,572
1,527
1,561
1,606
1,669
1,728
1,781
1,830
Kamo-Three Mile Bush
8,940
9,450
10,110
11,106
11,715
12,145
12,497
13,047
13,552
14,007
14,412
Kensington
8,352
8,973
8,628
9,039
9,622
9,812
10,111
10,367
10,623
10,879
11,134
Maunu
2,808
2,892
2,835
3,114
3,493
4,488
5,487
6,462
7,264
7,884
8,316
Avenues/Morningside
198
312
315
372
581
605
625
643
660
678
696
3,207
3,510
3,633
4,047
4,555
4,646
4,790
4,913
5,037
5,160
5,284
Portland
486
597
609
582
714
723
746
766
785
805
825
Tikipunga-Glenbervie
552
663
786
846
1,083
1,121
1,157
1,188
1,219
1,250
1,281
Otaika-Toetoe Parahaki-Onerahi
369
435
348
462
583
591
610
626
643
659
675
Matapouri
4,917
5,010
4,812
5,091
4,928
5,060
5,210
5,338
5,466
5,593
5,720
McLeod Bay & Reotahi
6,765
6,900
6,795
7,161
7,480
7,614
7,844
8,041
8,238
8,435
8,632
Ngunguru
612
705
867
1,068
1,148
1,190
1,226
1,258
1,289
1,320
1,352
Oakura
234
372
393
480
676
698
721
741
760
780
800
Parua Bay
468
498
540
606
613
625
644
660
676
692
708
Marsden Point - Ruakaka
Pataua Taurikura & Urquharts
390
522
471
486
606
623
643
660
677
694
711
6,525
6,645
6,969
7,794
7,648
7,854
8,083
8,426
8,741
9,025
9,278
Tutukaka
570
753
657
753
1,030
1,096
1,132
1,163
1,194
1,225
1,256
Waipu
912
1,017
1,029
1,188
1,402
1,446
1,492
1,531
1,570
1,609
1,648
Waipu Cove & Langs Beach Grand Total
Created 9 March 2007 Updated 18 January 2008
306
336
396
450
547
686
727
870
988
1,078
1,140
53,241
56,301
56,844
61,509
65,560
68,325
71,267
74,433
77,326
79,920
82,212
Page 56 of 98
Whangarei District Growth Model Table 27 Low Population Projections by Structure Plan Study Area 1991
1996
2001
2006
2011
2016
2021
2026
2031
2036
2041
4,305
4,380
4,353
4,539
4,578
4,688
4,785
4,859
4,932
5,005
5,078
City Centre
774
765
717
726
732
750
765
777
789
801
812
City Port
24
21
27
27
27
28
28
29
29
30
30
Hikurangi
1,527
1,545
1,554
1,572
1,586
1,624
1,657
1,683
1,708
1,733
1,759
Kamo-Three Mile Bush
8,940
9,450
10,110
11,106
11,202
11,470
11,709
11,888
12,068
12,246
12,425
Kensington
8,352
8,973
8,628
9,039
9,117
9,336
9,530
9,676
9,822
9,967
10,112
Maunu
2,808
2,892
2,835
3,114
3,141
3,216
3,283
3,333
3,384
3,434
3,484
Avenues/Morningside
198
312
315
372
375
384
392
398
404
410
416
3,207
3,510
3,633
4,047
4,082
4,180
4,267
4,332
4,397
4,462
4,528
Portland
486
597
609
582
587
601
614
623
632
642
651
Tikipunga-Glenbervie
552
663
786
846
853
874
892
906
919
933
946
Otaika-Toetoe Parahaki-Onerahi
369
435
348
462
466
477
487
495
502
509
517
Matapouri
4,917
5,010
4,812
5,091
5,135
5,258
5,367
5,450
5,532
5,614
5,696
McLeod Bay & Reotahi
6,765
6,900
6,795
7,161
7,223
7,396
7,550
7,665
7,781
7,896
8,011
Ngunguru
612
705
867
1,068
1,077
1,103
1,126
1,143
1,160
1,178
1,195
Oakura
234
372
393
480
484
496
506
514
522
529
537
Parua Bay
468
498
540
606
611
626
639
649
658
668
678
Marsden Point - Ruakaka
Pataua Taurikura & Urquharts
390
522
471
486
490
502
512
520
528
536
544
6,525
6,645
6,969
7,794
7,861
8,050
8,217
8,343
8,469
8,594
8,720
Tutukaka
570
753
657
753
759
778
794
806
818
830
842
Waipu
912
1,017
1,029
1,188
1,198
1,227
1,252
1,272
1,291
1,310
1,329
Waipu Cove & Langs Beach Grand Total
Created 9 March 2007 Updated 18 January 2008
306
336
396
450
454
465
474
482
489
496
503
53,241
56,301
56,844
61,509
62,038
63,527
64,848
65,840
66,835
67,824
68,814
Page 57 of 98
Whangarei District Growth Model Table 28 Business and Residential Development 2000-2007 Residential Building Consents 49
28
11
4
3
337
325
188
12
1
12
12
18
84
14
77
504
2
Hikurangi Horahora
Proposed Residential Subdivisions (number of lots)
Business Subdivisions (number of lots)
Abbey Caves Bream Head
Granted (223) Residential Subdivisions (number of lots)
Business Building Consents
1
Kamo East
3
Kamo West
1
72
37
14
Kensington
2
11
8
2
Mairtown
1
Marsden Point-Ruakaka
4
Maungatapere
1
36
Maunu Morningside Ngunguru
0 4
Onerahi
47
36
5
318
548
940
82
36
4
42
3
19
26
15
129
128
37
37
48
8
Opouteke-Tanekaha
8
317
201
40
Otaika-Portland
5
50
30
31
Otangarei
1
Parahaki Punaruku-Kiripaka
3
Raumanga East Raumanga West Regent
2
Te Hihi
5
Vinetown
1
Waiotira-Springfield
6
Waipu
309
363
121
2
15 62
0
17
15
5
14
100
30
74
0
95
50
13
74
157
6
157
36
13
Tikipunga East 1
10
26
Three Mile Bush
Tikipunga West
37
43
Riverside
Springs Flat
11
15
2
Sherwood Rise
4 23
63
27
117
155
274
134
9
4
0
126
417
49
3
316
320
273
13
45
Wharekohe-Oakleigh
2
339
219
Whau Valley
1
37
30
3
36
51
16
3,501
4,124
2,360
190
Western Hills
Woodhill Grand Total
Created 9 March 2007 Updated 18 January 2008
60
282
43
Page 58 of 98
Whangarei District Growth Model 6. Household Tables - Dwellings Table 29 Growth in Occupied Dwelling Count by Area Unit 1991
1996
2001
2006
1991-1996
1996-2001
2001-2006
Number
Percent
Number
Percent
Number
96
114
135
234
18
18.75%
21
18.42%
99
73.33%
1041
1311
1437
1692
270
25.94%
126
9.61%
255
17.75%
Hikurangi
417
435
465
468
18
4.32%
30
6.90%
3
0.65%
Horahora
321
354
369
390
33
10.28%
15
4.24%
21
5.69%
Kamo East
942
969
1077
1170
27
2.87%
108
11.15%
93
8.64%
Kamo West
1011
1098
1158
1254
87
8.61%
60
5.46%
96
8.29%
Kensington
546
576
576
528
30
5.49%
0
0.00%
-48
-8.33%
Mairtown
939
1026
1068
1074
87
9.27%
42
4.09%
6
0.56%
Marsden Point-Ruakaka
951
993
1062
1152
42
4.42%
69
6.95%
90
8.47%
Maungatapere
195
249
318
402
54
27.69%
69
27.71%
84
26.42%
Abbey Caves Bream Head
Percent
Maunu
399
423
471
507
24
6.02%
48
11.35%
36
7.64%
Morningside
720
738
753
786
18
2.50%
15
2.03%
33
4.38% 13.37%
Ngunguru
402
507
561
636
105
26.12%
54
10.65%
75
Onerahi
669
717
762
753
48
7.17%
45
6.28%
-9
-1.18%
Opouteke-Tanekaha
933
1086
1215
1455
153
16.40%
129
11.88%
240
19.75%
Otaika-Portland
222
270
330
351
48
21.62%
60
22.22%
21
6.36%
Otangarei
657
648
639
663
-9
-1.37%
-9
-1.39%
24
3.76%
Parahaki
399
417
420
387
18
4.51%
3
0.72%
-33
-7.86% 91.67%
Port-Limeburners
12
27
36
69
15
125.00%
9
33.33%
33
Punaruku-Kiripaka
879
1113
1218
1281
234
26.62%
105
9.43%
63
5.17%
Raumanga East
537
561
552
549
24
4.47%
-9
-1.60%
-3
-0.54%
Raumanga West
885
912
924
942
27
3.05%
12
1.32%
18
1.95%
Regent
684
711
729
723
27
3.95%
18
2.53%
-6
-0.82%
Riverside
303
321
336
393
18
5.94%
15
4.67%
57
16.96%
1248
1302
1365
1509
54
4.33%
63
4.84%
144
10.55%
Sherwood Rise Springs Flat
309
357
378
501
48
15.53%
21
5.88%
123
32.54%
Te Hihi
177
207
213
264
30
16.95%
6
2.90%
51
23.94%
96
108
162
207
12
12.50%
54
50.00%
45
27.78%
Tikipunga East
897
945
1014
1104
48
5.35%
69
7.30%
90
8.88%
Tikipunga West
846
894
951
1041
48
5.67%
57
6.38%
90
9.46%
Vinetown
669
684
696
699
15
2.24%
12
1.75%
3
0.43%
Waiotira-Springfield
423
492
546
660
69
16.31%
54
10.98%
114
20.88%
Waipu
Three Mile Bush
576
630
723
912
54
9.38%
93
14.76%
189
26.14%
Western Hills
63
69
69
147
6
9.52%
0
0.00%
78
113.04%
Whangarei Central
45
39
48
93
-6
-13.33%
9
23.08%
45
93.75%
Wharekohe-Oakleigh
651
828
939
1284
177
27.19%
111
13.41%
345
36.74%
Whau Valley
864
912
936
969
48
5.56%
24
2.63%
33
3.53%
Woodhill
600
627
642
672
27
4.50%
15
2.39%
30
4.67%
21624
23670
25293
27921
2,046
9.46%
1,623
6.86%
2,628
10.39%
Total Whangarei
Created 9 March 2007 Updated 18 January 2008
Page 59 of 98
Whangarei District Growth Model Table 30 Growth in Occupied Dwelling Count by Structure Plan Study Area
1991 Avenues/Morningside
1996
2001
2006
1991-1996
1996-2001
2001-2006
Number
Percent
Number
Percent
Number
Percent
36
2.12%
36
2.08%
48
2.72%
1695
1731
1767
1815
252
252
258
291
0
0.00%
6
2.38%
33
12.79%
12
18
27
27
6
50.00%
9
50.00%
0
0.00%
462
486
525
546
24
5.19%
39
8.02%
21
4.00%
Kamo-Three Mile Bush
3102
3390
3708
4140
288
9.28%
318
9.38%
432
11.65%
Kensington
3324
3501
3567
3693
177
5.32%
66
1.89%
126
3.53%
Maunu
1146
1266
1371
1569
120
10.47%
105
8.29%
198
14.44%
Otaika-Toetoe
1512
1587
1593
1644
75
4.96%
6
0.38%
51
3.20%
Parahaki-Onerahi
2316
2463
2595
2796
147
6.35%
132
5.36%
201
7.75%
132
153
183
216
21
15.91%
30
19.61%
33
18.03%
2079
2214
2394
2712
135
6.49%
180
8.13%
318
13.28%
984
1029
1113
1218
45
4.57%
84
8.16%
105
9.43%
96
144
159
159
48
50.00%
15
10.42%
0
0.00%
195
231
243
255
36
18.46%
12
5.19%
12
4.94%
City Centre City Port Hikurangi
Portland Tikipunga-Glenbervie Marsden Point - Ruakaka Matapouri McLeod Bay & Reotahi Ngunguru
207
273
330
360
66
31.88%
57
20.88%
30
9.09%
Oakura
132
159
129
183
27
20.45%
-30
-18.87%
54
41.86%
Parua Bay
204
237
306
387
33
16.18%
69
29.11%
81
26.47%
90
138
144
183
48
53.33%
6
4.35%
39
27.08%
Pataua Taurikura & Urquharts
150
189
183
204
39
26.00%
-6
-3.17%
21
11.48%
Tutukaka
228
288
291
342
60
26.32%
3
1.04%
51
17.53%
Waipu
327
372
393
492
45
13.76%
21
5.65%
99
25.19%
Waipu Cove & Langs Beach Total
Created 9 March 2007 Updated 18 January 2008
123
129
159
198
6
4.88%
30
23.26%
39
24.53%
18768
20250
21438
23430
1,482
7.90%
1,188
5.87%
1,992
9.29%
Page 60 of 98
Whangarei District Growth Model Table 31 High Occupied Dwelling Count Projections by Area Unit 1991 - 2041 1991
1996
2001
2006
2011
2016
2021
2026
2031
2036
2041
Abbey Caves
96
114
135
234
233
241
250
259
268
276
285
Bream Head
3,034
1,041
1,311
1,437
1,692
2,489
2,568
2,669
2,760
2,852
2,943
Hikurangi
417
435
465
468
508
517
537
556
574
592
611
Horahora
321
354
369
390
491
504
524
542
560
578
595
Kamo East
942
969
1,077
1,170
1,314
1,448
1,505
1,556
1,608
1,659
1,711
Kamo West
1,011
1,098
1,158
1,254
1,426
1,435
1,491
1,542
1,593
1,644
1,695
Kensington
546
576
576
528
711
713
741
766
792
817
842
Mairtown
939
1,026
1,068
1,074
1,245
1,281
1,331
1,377
1,422
1,468
1,513
Marsden Point-Ruakaka
951
993
1,062
1,152
1,434
1,976
2,569
3,322
3,936
4,404
4,720
Maungatapere
195
249
318
402
493
501
521
538
556
574
592
Maunu
399
423
471
507
683
683
710
734
758
783
807
Morningside
720
738
753
786
899
905
941
973
1,005
1,037
1,069
Ngunguru
402
507
561
636
998
1,056
1,098
1,135
1,173
1,210
1,248
Onerahi
669
717
762
753
928
943
980
1,014
1,047
1,081
1,114
Opouteke-Tanekaha
933
1,086
1,215
1,455
1,999
2,058
2,139
2,212
2,285
2,358
2,431
Otaika-Portland
222
270
330
351
428
436
453
469
484
500
515
Otangarei
657
648
639
663
702
711
739
764
790
815
840
Parahaki
399
417
420
387
517
527
548
566
585
604
623
Port-Limeburners
12
27
36
69
68
71
74
76
79
81
84
Punaruku-Kiripaka
879
1,113
1,218
1,281
2,159
2,297
2,387
2,469
2,551
2,632
2,714
Raumanga East
537
561
552
549
636
641
666
689
712
735
757
Raumanga West
885
912
924
942
1,143
1,192
1,239
1,281
1,324
1,366
1,408
Regent
684
711
729
723
839
847
880
910
941
971
1,001
Riverside
303
321
336
393
412
414
430
445
460
474
489
1,248
1,302
1,365
1,509
1,639
1,649
1,714
1,772
1,831
1,890
1,948 1,682
Sherwood Rise Springs Flat
309
357
378
501
516
622
628
997
1,298
1,527
Te Hihi
177
207
213
264
441
457
475
491
507
524
540
Three Mile Bush
96
108
162
207
423
440
457
473
489
504
520
Tikipunga East
897
945
1,014
1,104
1,239
1,247
1,296
1,340
1,385
1,429
1,473
Tikipunga West
846
894
951
1,041
1,175
1,216
1,264
1,307
1,350
1,393
1,437
Vinetown
669
684
696
699
773
775
805
833
861
888
916
Waiotira-Springfield
423
492
546
660
972
1,272
1,519
1,591
1,657
1,718
1,773
Waipu
576
630
723
912
1,348
1,519
1,594
1,751
1,886
1,999
2,089
Western Hills
63
69
69
147
117
117
122
126
130
134
138
Whangarei Central
45
39
48
93
69
69
72
74
77
79
82
Wharekohe-Oakleigh
651
828
939
1,284
1,754
1,812
1,883
1,948
2,012
2,076
2,141
Whau Valley
864
912
936
969
1,106
1,117
1,161
1,201
1,240
1,280
1,320
Woodhill
600
627
642
672
823
870
904
935
966
997
1,028
21,624
23,670
25,293
27,921
35,150
37,147
39,317
41,795
44,042
46,041
47,785
Grand Total
Created 9 March 2007 Updated 18 January 2008
Page 61 of 98
Whangarei District Growth Model Table 32 Medium Occupied Dwelling Count Projections by Area Unit 1991 - 2041 1991
1996
2001
2006
2011
2016
2021
2026
2031
2036
2041
Abbey Caves
96
114
135
234
235
241
249
255
261
267
273
Bream Head
2,463
1,041
1,311
1,437
1,692
2,098
2,158
2,226
2,286
2,345
2,404
Hikurangi
417
435
465
468
490
500
515
528
541
554
567
Horahora
321
354
369
390
442
453
467
480
492
504
516
Kamo East
942
969
1,077
1,170
1,247
1,328
1,369
1,404
1,440
1,475
1,510
Kamo West
1,011
1,098
1,158
1,254
1,345
1,365
1,407
1,442
1,478
1,514
1,549
Kensington
546
576
576
528
622
629
649
666
683
700
717
Mairtown
939
1,026
1,068
1,074
1,164
1,195
1,232
1,263
1,295
1,326
1,358
Marsden Point-Ruakaka
951
993
1,062
1,152
1,298
1,583
1,892
2,277
2,594
2,837
3,004
Maungatapere
195
249
318
402
449
458
472
484
497
509
521
Maunu
399
423
471
507
597
603
622
638
655
671
687
Morningside
720
738
753
786
846
858
885
907
929
952
974
Ngunguru
402
507
561
636
820
856
884
908
932
956
980
Onerahi
669
717
762
753
844
860
887
910
933
955
978
Opouteke-Tanekaha
933
1,086
1,215
1,455
1,733
1,780
1,836
1,885
1,933
1,981
2,030
Otaika-Portland
222
270
330
351
391
399
412
422
433
443
454
Otangarei
657
648
639
663
685
698
719
737
755
773
791
Parahaki
399
417
420
387
454
463
478
490
503
515
528
Port-Limeburners
12
27
36
69
69
71
73
75
77
79
81
Punaruku-Kiripaka
879
1,113
1,218
1,281
1,726
1,810
1,869
1,920
1,971
2,022
2,073
Raumanga East
537
561
552
549
595
604
622
638
654
670
686
Raumanga West
885
912
924
942
1,047
1,082
1,116
1,145
1,174
1,202
1,231
Regent
684
711
729
723
784
797
821
842
863
884
905
Riverside
303
321
336
393
404
410
422
433
443
454
464
Sherwood Rise
1,248
1,302
1,365
1,509
1,580
1,604
1,652
1,694
1,735
1,777
1,818
Springs Flat
309
357
378
501
511
570
578
766
921
1,040
1,121
Te Hihi
177
207
213
264
354
365
377
387
397
407
418
Three Mile Bush
96
108
162
207
316
327
338
347
357
366
376
Tikipunga East
897
945
1,014
1,104
1,176
1,194
1,230
1,261
1,292
1,323
1,354
Tikipunga West
846
894
951
1,041
1,112
1,146
1,181
1,211
1,241
1,271
1,301
Vinetown
669
684
696
699
739
748
771
791
810
829
849
Waiotira-Springfield
423
492
546
660
819
977
1,108
1,149
1,187
1,223
1,256
Waipu
576
630
723
912
1,134
1,230
1,278
1,364
1,439
1,502
1,554
Western Hills
63
69
69
147
133
134
138
142
145
148
151
Whangarei Central
45
39
48
93
81
83
85
87
89
91
93
Wharekohe-Oakleigh
651
828
939
1,284
1,525
1,569
1,618
1,661
1,704
1,746
1,789
Whau Valley
864
912
936
969
1,042
1,059
1,091
1,119
1,147
1,174
1,202
Woodhill Grand Total
600
627
642
672
750
782
806
827
848
869
890
21,624
23,670
25,293
27,921
31,656
32,992
34,377
35,841
37,190
38,414
39,511
Created 9 March 2007 Updated 18 January 2008
Page 62 of 98
Whangarei District Growth Model Table 33 Low Occupied Dwelling Count Projections by Area Unit 1991 - 2041 1991
1996
2001
2006
2011
2016
2021
2026
2031
2036
2041
Abbey Caves
96
114
135
234
236
242
247
250
254
258
262
Bream Head
1,893
1,041
1,311
1,437
1,692
1,707
1,748
1,784
1,811
1,838
1,866
Hikurangi
417
435
465
468
472
483
493
501
509
516
524
Horahora
321
354
369
390
393
403
411
417
424
430
436
Kamo East
942
969
1,077
1,170
1,180
1,208
1,234
1,252
1,271
1,290
1,309
Kamo West
1,011
1,098
1,158
1,254
1,265
1,295
1,322
1,342
1,363
1,383
1,403
Kensington
546
576
576
528
533
545
557
565
574
582
591
Mairtown
939
1,026
1,068
1,074
1,083
1,109
1,132
1,150
1,167
1,184
1,202
Marsden Point-Ruakaka
951
993
1,062
1,152
1,162
1,190
1,215
1,233
1,252
1,270
1,289
Maungatapere
195
249
318
402
405
415
424
430
437
443
450
Maunu
399
423
471
507
511
524
535
543
551
559
567
Morningside
720
738
753
786
793
812
829
841
854
867
879
Ngunguru
402
507
561
636
641
657
671
681
691
701
712
Onerahi
669
717
762
753
759
778
794
806
818
830
842
Opouteke-Tanekaha
933
1,086
1,215
1,455
1,468
1,503
1,534
1,557
1,581
1,604
1,628
Otaika-Portland
222
270
330
351
354
363
370
376
381
387
393
Otangarei
657
648
639
663
669
685
699
710
720
731
742
Parahaki
399
417
420
387
390
400
408
414
421
427
433
Port-Limeburners
12
27
36
69
70
71
73
74
75
76
77
Punaruku-Kiripaka
879
1,113
1,218
1,281
1,292
1,323
1,351
1,371
1,392
1,413
1,433
Raumanga East
537
561
552
549
554
567
579
588
597
605
614
Raumanga West
885
912
924
942
950
973
993
1,008
1,024
1,039
1,054
Regent
684
711
729
723
729
747
762
774
786
797
809
Riverside
303
321
336
393
396
406
414
421
427
433
440
Sherwood Rise
1,248
1,302
1,365
1,509
1,522
1,559
1,591
1,615
1,640
1,664
1,688
Springs Flat
309
357
378
501
505
517
528
536
544
552
561
Te Hihi
177
207
213
264
266
273
278
283
287
291
295
Three Mile Bush
96
108
162
207
209
214
218
222
225
228
232
Tikipunga East
897
945
1,014
1,104
1,113
1,140
1,164
1,182
1,200
1,217
1,235
Tikipunga West
846
894
951
1,041
1,050
1,075
1,098
1,114
1,131
1,148
1,165
Vinetown
669
684
696
699
705
722
737
748
760
771
782
Waiotira-Springfield
423
492
546
660
666
682
696
706
717
728
738
Waipu
576
630
723
912
920
942
962
976
991
1,006
1,020
Western Hills
63
69
69
147
148
152
155
157
160
162
164
Whangarei Central
45
39
48
93
94
96
98
100
101
103
104
Wharekohe-Oakleigh
651
828
939
1,284
1,295
1,326
1,354
1,374
1,395
1,416
1,436
Whau Valley
864
912
936
969
977
1,001
1,022
1,037
1,053
1,068
1,084
Woodhill Grand Total
600
627
642
672
678
694
708
719
730
741
752
21,624
23,670
25,293
27,921
28,161
28,837
29,437
29,887
30,338
30,787
31,237
Created 9 March 2007 Updated 18 January 2008
Page 63 of 98
Whangarei District Growth Model Table 34 High Dwelling Count Projections by Structure Plan Study Area 1991 – 2041 1991
1996
2001
2006
2011
2016
2021
2026
2031
2036
2041
1,695
1,731
1,767
1,815
2,115
2,164
2,249
2,326
2,403
2,480
2,557
City Centre
252
252
258
291
315
320
333
344
355
367
378
City Port
12
18
27
27
20
22
23
24
24
25
26
Hikurangi
462
486
525
546
605
618
641
683
721
755
785
Kamo-Three Mile Bush
3,102
3,390
3,708
4,140
5,050
5,296
5,490
5,874
6,220
6,525
6,788
Kensington
3,324
3,501
3,567
3,693
4,220
4,287
4,455
4,608
4,760
4,913
5,065
Maunu
1,146
1,266
1,371
1,569
2,095
2,130
2,214
2,289
2,365
2,441
2,517
Otaika-Toetoe
1,512
1,587
1,593
1,644
1,967
2,026
2,106
2,178
2,250
2,322
2,394
Parahaki-Onerahi
2,316
2,463
2,595
2,796
3,224
3,263
3,391
3,507
3,623
3,739
3,855
132
153
183
216
256
260
270
279
289
298
307
2,079
2,214
2,394
2,712
3,063
3,157
3,277
3,511
3,721
3,906
4,064
Marsden Point - Ruakaka
984
1,029
1,113
1,218
1,529
2,327
3,131
3,923
4,571
5,066
5,405
Matapouri
96
144
159
159
328
344
358
370
382
394
406
McLeod Bay & Reotahi
195
231
243
255
350
352
366
378
391
403
416
Ngunguru
207
273
330
360
547
570
592
613
633
653
673
Oakura
132
159
129
183
292
294
306
316
326
337
347
Parua Bay
204
237
306
387
508
532
553
572
591
610
629
Pataua
90
138
144
183
362
375
390
403
416
430
443
Taurikura & Urquharts
150
189
183
204
301
310
322
333
344
355
366
Tutukaka
228
288
291
342
542
589
612
633
654
675
696
Waipu
327
372
393
492
669
694
721
746
771
795
820
Avenues/Morningside
Portland Tikipunga-Glenbervie
Waipu Cove & Langs Beach Grand Total
Created 9 March 2007 Updated 18 January 2008
123
129
159
198
277
378
408
524
619
692
741
18,768
20,250
21,438
23,430
28,635
30,308
32,209
34,434
36,430
38,180
39,678
Page 64 of 98
Whangarei District Growth Model Table 35 Medium Dwelling Count Projections by Structure Plan Study Area 1991
1996
2001
2006
2011
2016
2021
2026
2031
2036
2041
1,695
1,731
1,767
1,815
1,973
2,019
2,081
2,134
2,188
2,241
2,294
City Centre
252
252
258
291
304
310
320
328
336
344
352
City Port
12
18
27
27
24
25
26
26
27
27
28
Hikurangi
462
486
525
546
578
591
608
634
657
679
698
Kamo-Three Mile Bush
3,102
3,390
3,708
4,140
4,613
4,786
4,927
5,153
5,359
5,545
5,710
Kensington
3,324
3,501
3,567
3,693
3,972
4,051
4,174
4,280
4,387
4,492
4,598
Maunu
1,146
1,266
1,371
1,569
1,839
1,875
1,934
1,984
2,035
2,085
2,136
Otaika-Toetoe
1,512
1,587
1,593
1,644
1,813
1,862
1,919
1,969
2,018
2,067
2,116
Parahaki-Onerahi
2,316
2,463
2,595
2,796
3,022
3,075
3,170
3,250
3,331
3,411
3,492
132
153
183
216
237
242
249
255
262
268
274
2,079
2,214
2,394
2,712
2,899
2,979
3,068
3,207
3,334
3,448
3,549
Marsden Point - Ruakaka
984
1,029
1,113
1,218
1,379
1,792
2,208
2,613
2,947
3,205
3,384
Matapouri
96
144
159
159
244
254
263
270
277
285
292
McLeod Bay & Reotahi
195
231
243
255
304
308
317
326
334
342
351
Ngunguru
207
273
330
360
455
471
486
499
512
525
538
Oakura
132
159
129
183
238
242
249
256
263
269
276
Parua Bay
204
237
306
387
449
466
480
493
506
518
531
Pataua
90
138
144
183
273
282
291
299
308
316
324
Taurikura & Urquharts
150
189
183
204
253
260
269
276
283
290
297
Tutukaka
228
288
291
342
443
471
486
500
513
526
539
Waipu
327
372
393
492
583
601
620
636
653
669
685
Avenues/Morningside
Portland Tikipunga-Glenbervie
Waipu Cove & Langs Beach Grand Total
Created 9 March 2007 Updated 18 January 2008
123
129
159
198
238
291
309
368
417
455
481
18,768
20,250
21,438
23,430
26,133
27,253
28,455
29,757
30,945
32,008
32,945
Page 65 of 98
Whangarei District Growth Model Table 36 Low Dwelling Count Projections by Structure Plan Study Area 1991
1996
2001
2006
2011
2016
2021
2026
2031
2036
2041
1,695
1,731
1,767
1,815
1,831
1,875
1,914
1,943
1,972
2,001
2,031
City Centre
252
252
258
291
294
301
307
311
316
321
326
City Port
12
18
27
27
27
28
28
29
29
30
30
Hikurangi
462
486
525
546
551
564
576
584
593
602
611
Kamo-Three Mile Bush
3,102
3,390
3,708
4,140
4,176
4,276
4,365
4,432
4,498
4,565
4,632
Kensington
3,324
3,501
3,567
3,693
3,725
3,814
3,893
3,953
4,013
4,072
4,132
Maunu
1,146
1,266
1,371
1,569
1,582
1,620
1,654
1,679
1,705
1,730
1,755
Otaika-Toetoe
1,512
1,587
1,593
1,644
1,658
1,698
1,733
1,760
1,786
1,813
1,839
Parahaki-Onerahi
2,316
2,463
2,595
2,796
2,820
2,888
2,948
2,993
3,038
3,083
3,128
132
153
183
216
218
223
228
231
235
238
242
2,079
2,214
2,394
2,712
2,735
2,801
2,859
2,903
2,947
2,990
3,034
Marsden Point - Ruakaka
984
1,029
1,113
1,218
1,228
1,258
1,284
1,304
1,323
1,343
1,363
Matapouri
96
144
159
159
160
164
168
170
173
175
178
McLeod Bay & Reotahi
195
231
243
255
257
263
269
273
277
281
285
Ngunguru
207
273
330
360
363
372
380
385
391
397
403
Oakura
132
159
129
183
185
189
193
196
199
202
205
Parua Bay
204
237
306
387
390
400
408
414
421
427
433
Pataua
90
138
144
183
185
189
193
196
199
202
205
Taurikura & Urquharts
150
189
183
204
206
211
215
218
222
225
228
Tutukaka
228
288
291
342
345
353
361
366
372
377
383
Waipu
327
372
393
492
496
508
519
527
535
543
550
Avenues/Morningside
Portland Tikipunga-Glenbervie
Waipu Cove & Langs Beach Grand Total
Created 9 March 2007 Updated 18 January 2008
123
129
159
198
200
204
209
212
215
218
222
18,768
20,250
21,438
23,430
23,631
24,199
24,702
25,080
25,459
25,835
26,213
Page 66 of 98
Whangarei District Growth Model 7. Landuse Capacity Tables Table 37 Taken to Reach District Plan Capacity by Area Unit Year of Capacity High Growth
Medium Growth
Abbey Caves
2072
2064
Low Growth 2057
Bream Head
2154
2227
2388
Hikurangi
2203
2525
2690
Horahora
2347
2515
2962
Kamo East
2138
2180
2249
Kamo West
2108
2137
2182
Kensington
2055
2106
2130
Mairtown
2033
2054
2124
Marsden Point-Ruakaka
2079
2149
3302
Maungatapere
2085
2090
2094
Maunu
2144
2206
2339
Morningside
2216
2258
2311
Ngunguru
2117
2198
2519
Onerahi
2139
2211
2353
Opouteke-Tanekaha
2648
2751
2872
Otaika-Portland
2189
2208
2227
Otangarei
1961
2038
2127
Parahaki
2176
2256
1915
Port-Limeburners
2269
2296
2325
Punaruku-Kiripaka
2280
2452
2982
Raumanga East
2038
2078
2124
Raumanga West
2255
2314
2333
Regent
2062
2100
2157
Riverside
2105
2134
2182
Sherwood Rise
2140
2174
2229
Springs Flat
2020
2032
2086
Te Hihi
2045
2075
2172
Three Mile Bush
2082
2122
2209
Tikipunga East
2173
2180
2178
Tikipunga West
2453
2477
2470
Vinetown
2047
2074
2153
Waiotira-Springfield
2278
2474
3348
Waipu
2179
2290
2644
Western Hills
2162
2156
2126
Whangarei Central
2003
1956
1953
Wharekohe-Oakleigh
2216
2266
2334
Whau Valley
2126
2169
2255
Woodhill
2075
2121
2282
Whangarei District
2184
2274
2497
Created 9 March 2007 Updated 18 January 2008
Page 67 of 98
Whangarei District Growth Model Table 38 Time Taken to Reach District Plan Capacity by Structure Plan Study Area Year of Capacity High Growth
Medium Growth
Avenues/Morningside
2103
2150
Low Growth 2264
City Centre
2083
2106
2133
City Port
1974
1956
1871
Hikurangi
2340
2492
2706
Kamo-Three Mile Bush
2094
2130
2199
Kensington
2076
2109
2183
Maunu
2069
2130
3170
Otaika-Toetoe
2160
2273
2701
Parahaki-Onerahi
2125
2179
2297
Portland
2178
2299
2632
Tikipunga-Glenbervie
2101
2159
2315
Marsden Point - Ruakaka
2238
2372
2744
Matapouri
2249
2303
2318
McLeod Bay & Reotahi
2148
2199
2301
Ngunguru
2133
2161
2195
Oakura
2130
2206
2411
Parua Bay
2355
2387
2418
Pataua
2244
2408
2833
Taurikura & Urquharts
2184
2221
2253
Tutukaka
2142
2247
2705
Waipu
2153
2233
2441
Waipu Cove & Langs Beach
2127
2234
2974
Structure Plan Areas
2123
2186
2360
Created 9 March 2007 Updated 18 January 2008
Page 68 of 98
