Wind Energy in New England
Wind Energy in New England The Will and the Way a presentation to the
Environmental Business Council of New England April 2, 2008
Presentation Overview
Demand for Wind Energy Electrical demand Environmental demand Economic opportunities Supply Resource availability Project economics How much capacity can be built? Challenges Political will Workable Permitting process Transmission capacity
Demand for Wind Energy in New England
Electrical demand High electricity prices – heavily dependent on natural gas Capacity short – need to build new plants Forward Capacity Market Environmental demand RPS and Greenhouse Gas reduction initiatives Economic opportunities Wind energy development offers unique economic opportunities
Electrical Demand
4,300 MW needed by 2015 (ISO-NE 2006 Regional System Plan)
Environmental Demand
RPS demand in 2015 1,390 – 5,360 MW (high vs. low growth, imports)
RPS + Greenhouse Gas Reduction Initiatives 7,700 – 12,870 MW
Economic Opportunities
Sources of Benefits Tax base Jobs Open space Reduced electricity prices Jobs created in high unemployment areas High-value, low-impact development Compared to other energy, other economic development opportunities Potential for New England to become a wind industry hub
Estimated Economic Benefits (for an 80 MW project)
Jobs: Estimated 170 during construction, and 36 during operations. Includes direct payroll, suppliers, and local merchants.
Total local economic impacts: $18.4 million during construction $3.1 million annually during operations $80.4 million total over 20 years
Supply
Resource availability
Project economics
How much capacity can be built?
Favorable Project Economics
Energy prices – high in New England
Capacity payments
Financeable forward hedge market
REC prices - high in New England
Developing Greenhouse Gas allowance market
Production Tax Credit
How much capacity can be built?
Issues Wind energy resource Developable land Transmission capacity Political acceptance Challenges of ridgeline projects
Estimates* Maine Massachusetts New Hampshire Vermont
Potential 4500 MW 1100 MW 1600 MW 2000 MW
Current 1-6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.3%
___________________________________________________________ Bob Grace, Sustainable Energy Advantage, 10/30/07
Challenging Issues
Political acceptance
Workable Permitting regimes
Transmission capacity
Transmission Capacity
Wind energy resources are location constrained
Significant transmission upgrades are required to access wind resources
How to pay for them? Status quo ISO-NE rule vs. good public policy Challenges of regional ISO Models from other states NH and Maine appear to have the will to explore state-level cost socialization, if necessary
The Art of Windpark Permitting
Time and uncertainty are project enemies
Evolving procedures and protocols Typical state regimes are evolved from preexisting siting laws for fuel based technologies Regulators can be caught in the headlights by wind permitting
It’s in Developers interests to cover the usual range of impacts Roads Wetlands Wildlife (Birds & bats) Visual Shadow flicker Noise Decommissioning
State level permitting process: The Reality
Maine - appears willing BEP in organized townships LURC in unorganized areas Governor’s Task Force
New Hampshire - appears willing Certificate of Site and Facility from NH Site Evaluation Committee (SEC) (Sec 162 Public Safety and Welfare Law) New SEC Rules would streamline process – 9 months for projects under 120 MW
Vermont - unknown Certificate of Public Good from Vermont Public Service Board (Sec 248 Public Service Law)
Massachusetts – appears unwilling Hull Yes! Other sites under legal challenge
Maine Governor’s Task Force on Wind Power Development
Proactive approach to encouraging Good Projects Set goals “at least 2000 MW by 2015” Define areas for expedited permitting Standardize standards and protocol Fast-track timeline (185 days) State level leadership Coordination Tracking progress towards goal
Noble Environmental Power New Hampshire
Connecticut
Vermont
148 Main Street, Second Floor Lancaster, NH 03584 (603)788-2840
8 Railroad Avenue, Suite 8 Essex, CT 06426 (860) 510-5058
110 Merchants Row, Suite 101 Rutland, VT 05701 (802)747-7200
www.noblepower.com Mark Lyons VP & Senior Counsel [email protected] Mobile: 860-395-7334
Environmental Business Council of New England April 2, 2008
Presentation Overview
Demand for Wind Energy Electrical demand Environmental demand Economic opportunities Supply Resource availability Project economics How much capacity can be built? Challenges Political will Workable Permitting process Transmission capacity
Demand for Wind Energy in New England
Electrical demand High electricity prices – heavily dependent on natural gas Capacity short – need to build new plants Forward Capacity Market Environmental demand RPS and Greenhouse Gas reduction initiatives Economic opportunities Wind energy development offers unique economic opportunities
Electrical Demand
4,300 MW needed by 2015 (ISO-NE 2006 Regional System Plan)
Environmental Demand
RPS demand in 2015 1,390 – 5,360 MW (high vs. low growth, imports)
RPS + Greenhouse Gas Reduction Initiatives 7,700 – 12,870 MW
Economic Opportunities
Sources of Benefits Tax base Jobs Open space Reduced electricity prices Jobs created in high unemployment areas High-value, low-impact development Compared to other energy, other economic development opportunities Potential for New England to become a wind industry hub
Estimated Economic Benefits (for an 80 MW project)
Jobs: Estimated 170 during construction, and 36 during operations. Includes direct payroll, suppliers, and local merchants.
Total local economic impacts: $18.4 million during construction $3.1 million annually during operations $80.4 million total over 20 years
Supply
Resource availability
Project economics
How much capacity can be built?
Favorable Project Economics
Energy prices – high in New England
Capacity payments
Financeable forward hedge market
REC prices - high in New England
Developing Greenhouse Gas allowance market
Production Tax Credit
How much capacity can be built?
Issues Wind energy resource Developable land Transmission capacity Political acceptance Challenges of ridgeline projects
Estimates* Maine Massachusetts New Hampshire Vermont
Potential 4500 MW 1100 MW 1600 MW 2000 MW
Current 1-6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.3%
___________________________________________________________ Bob Grace, Sustainable Energy Advantage, 10/30/07
Challenging Issues
Political acceptance
Workable Permitting regimes
Transmission capacity
Transmission Capacity
Wind energy resources are location constrained
Significant transmission upgrades are required to access wind resources
How to pay for them? Status quo ISO-NE rule vs. good public policy Challenges of regional ISO Models from other states NH and Maine appear to have the will to explore state-level cost socialization, if necessary
The Art of Windpark Permitting
Time and uncertainty are project enemies
Evolving procedures and protocols Typical state regimes are evolved from preexisting siting laws for fuel based technologies Regulators can be caught in the headlights by wind permitting
It’s in Developers interests to cover the usual range of impacts Roads Wetlands Wildlife (Birds & bats) Visual Shadow flicker Noise Decommissioning
State level permitting process: The Reality
Maine - appears willing BEP in organized townships LURC in unorganized areas Governor’s Task Force
New Hampshire - appears willing Certificate of Site and Facility from NH Site Evaluation Committee (SEC) (Sec 162 Public Safety and Welfare Law) New SEC Rules would streamline process – 9 months for projects under 120 MW
Vermont - unknown Certificate of Public Good from Vermont Public Service Board (Sec 248 Public Service Law)
Massachusetts – appears unwilling Hull Yes! Other sites under legal challenge
Maine Governor’s Task Force on Wind Power Development
Proactive approach to encouraging Good Projects Set goals “at least 2000 MW by 2015” Define areas for expedited permitting Standardize standards and protocol Fast-track timeline (185 days) State level leadership Coordination Tracking progress towards goal
Noble Environmental Power New Hampshire
Connecticut
Vermont
148 Main Street, Second Floor Lancaster, NH 03584 (603)788-2840
8 Railroad Avenue, Suite 8 Essex, CT 06426 (860) 510-5058
110 Merchants Row, Suite 101 Rutland, VT 05701 (802)747-7200
www.noblepower.com Mark Lyons VP & Senior Counsel [email protected] Mobile: 860-395-7334
