Woodward on Washington: Economic and Political Update
Woodward on Washington: Economic and Political Update Joan Woodward, President, Travelers Institute; Executive Vice President, Public Policy, Travelers
1
Economic and Washington Public Policy Update
I.
Economic Outlook and Hot Topics in Public Policy for 2017
II. Implications of the 2016 US Election
III. Corporate Thought Leadership in Washington ▪ Travelers Institute
2
Economic Outlook and Hot Topics in Public Policy for 2017
3
Anemic GDP Growth Continues In US 10
8
Q2 2017: 3.0%
6
Percent Change
4 2 0
-2 -4 -6 -8 -10
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Year Source: St. Louis Federal Reserve 4
US Economy Underperforms Potential GDP For Prolonged Period GDP Chained 2009 Dollars, (1980 Q1 – 2017 Q2) 18.00
16.00
Potential GDP Real GDP (Trillions)
14.00 12.00 10.00
Actual GDP
8.00 6.00 4.00 2.00 0.00
1980
1984
1988
1992
1996
2000
2004
2008
2012
2016
Year Source: St. Louis Federal Reserve 5
World’s 10 Largest Economies From 2015 To 2030 United States
17.9
China
10.9
India
2
4.1
Germany Brazil
1.8
United Kingdom
0
4.0 3.6
Mexico: 1.1 trillion
3.3
0.9
1
2.6
1.3 1.1
2.4
1.6
Russia
4.5
1.1
0.8
2.4
Canada
6.4
2.2
2.8
France
6.6 2.3
3.4
22.2
11.3
4.6
Japan
24.8
6.9
5
(0.5% of world population)
10
15
2015 GDP
20
2030 Predicted GDP Growth
25
30
Trillion Dollars
Source: Bloomberg 6
Global GDP Recovery Since The Recession
125
…off the charts….literally! (India: ~172 2017Q2) (China: ~182 2017Q2)
India Brazil
China
2009Q2 = 100 (trough of US recession)
120
Canada US UK
115
110
Japan European Union
105
100
95
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Year
2014
2015
2016
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics 7
Quality Of Employment Remains A Concern National Unemployment Rate (January 2007 – August 2017) 18
Total Unemployment includes those who are unemployed, marginally attached, or parttime for economic reasons
16
Percent
14
8.6% 12
Unemployment Rate 4.4%
10
8
6
4 2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Year Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics 8
Example B Is Not Included In The 8.6% Example A
Example B
9
Comparing Presidential Recessions Percentage Jobs Gained/Lost Since Recession Onset 2.00%
H.W. Bush (1990) 0.00%
-2.00%
Bush (2001) 7 ⅟2 Years
-4.00%
Reagan (1981)
-6.00%
Obama (2008) -8.00%
-10.00%
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Years Source: St. Louis Federal Reserve 10
Hillary’s Uphill Climb Was Tough
THIS WAS SUPPOSED TO BE EASY?!
11
US Consumer Sentiment Vs. The Equity Market 100.0
2500
95.0
2300
90.0
2100
S&P 500
Jan. 1966 = 100
1900 85.0 1700 80.0 1500
75.0 1300 70.0 1100
August 2017: 96.8 65.0
900
60.0
700
55.0
500
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Year Source: University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers 12
Oil - Cheaper Than Your Morning Coffee…Or Evening Vodka
Oil
Water
Reg. Gasoline
Milk
Coffee
Wine
Vodka
$49/bbl
$1.30/ gallon
$2.65/ gallon
$4.99/ gallon
$3/cup
$15/ bottle
$20/ bottle
$ per gallon
$1.16
$1.30
$2.65
$4.99
$19.20
$75.71
$100.94
Basis to Water
$-0.14
$0.00
$1.35
$3.69
$17.90
$74.41
$99.64 Source: Zero Hedge
13
US Consumer Spending Keeps The Economy Afloat Personal Consumption Expenditures (1980 Q1 – 2017 Q2) 10
Q2: 2.8%
8 6
Percent Change
4 2 0 -2
-4 -6 -8 -10 1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
Year Source: St. Louis Federal Reserve 14
Small Business Confidence Continues… NFIB Small Business Optimism Index (July 1998 – August 2017) August 2017: 105.3 Index Value (Long-term average =100)
110
105
100
95
90
85
80 1998
2002
2006
2010
2014
Year Source: National Federation of Independent Business’ Small Business Economic Trends 15
US Goods Trade Balance With… 50,000
Canada 2016: -11bil. 0 -50,000
Mexico 2016: -$63bil.
-150,000 -200,000 -250,000 -300,000 -350,000
China 2016: -$347bil.
Year
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
1989
1988
1987
1986
-400,000 1985
Millions US$
-100,000
Source: US Census Bureau 16
2016 US Elections… Trump Trumped the Establishment
17
Incumbent 2-Term US Presidents – Party Losses Suffered
Senate Seats
House Seats
Governorships
State Legislators
7
45
11
524
9
42
7
324
13
69
11
932
Source: Politico 18
Independents Decide All US Elections… Self-Described Party Affiliation (January 2009 – August 2017) 50
Independent: 41% 45
Percent
40
Democrat: 28%
35 30 25
Republican: 28%
20 15
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Year
2014
2015
2016
2017
Source: Gallup Polls 19
Political Pollsters… They Were Talking To The Wrong People
20
2016 US Presidential Results
Popular Vote Clinton: 64.8M Trump: 62.5M
Source: Washington Post 21
2016 US House Of Representatives Results
Source: Washington Post 22
US Senate Seats To Defend In 2018
Republicans (8) Luther Strange – AL Jeff Flake – AZ
Roger Wicker – MS Deb Fischer – NE Dean Heller – NV Bob Corker – TN
Democrats (23) Dianne Feinstein – CA
Bob Menendez – NJ
Chris Murphy – CT
Martin Heinrich – NM
Tom Carper – DE
Kirsten Gillibrand – NY
Bill Nelson – FL
Heidi Heitkamp – ND
Mazie Hirono – HI
Sherrod Brown – OH
Joe Donnelly – IN
Bob Casey Jr. – PA
Ben Cardin - MD
Sheldon Whitehouse – RI
Ted Cruz – TX
Elizabeth Warren – MA
Tim Kaine – VA
Orrin Hatch – UT
Debbie Stabenow – MI
Maria Cantwell – WA
John Barrasso – WY
Amy Klobuchar – MN
Joe Manchin – WV
Claire McCaskill – MO
Tammy Baldwin – WI
Jon Tester – MT
23
Unfavorable Ratings Of US Major Party Presidential Nominees (1956-2017) 70 63% 60 50
55%
57%
47%
Percent
40 30 20 10 0
President Source: Investment Strategy Group, Gallup, Professor Allan Lichtman, Washington Post, Cook Political Report, Real Clear Politics 24
Least Popular US President In 4 Decades Inauguration Day Favorability 90 80
78%
79%
68%
70 58%
65%
62%
Percent
60 50 40%
40 30
20 10 0
President Source: Washington Post 25
Election Demographics: Romney vs. Trump vs. Clinton vs. Obama (2012 & 2016)
Romney
Trump
Clinton
(2012)
(2016)
Obama
(2016)
(2012)
59%
58%
37%
39%
6%
8%
88%
93%
Latino
27%
29%
65%
71%
Women
44%
42%
54%
55%
White Women
56%
53%
43%
42%
College Graduate
51%
45%
49%
47%
Non-College Graduate White Men
31%
72%
23%
38%
White African American
Source: New York Times 26
Trump Administration Gets Busy…
27
What Can Trump And GOP Congress Achieve?
▪ Immigration reform – wall on the Mexican border from Corpus Christi, TX to San Diego, CA – Enhanced screening and tightening of immigrants ▪ Infrastructure spending to increase …a lot
▪ Free trade deals renegotiated and killed TPP
?
▪ Major tax reform both – individual and corporate rates reduced
▪ Repeal of Obamacare, but preservation of smart ideas ▪ Approval of the Keystone XL Pipeline ▪ Reform Air Traffic Control and Federal Aviation Administration
▪ Withdrawn from Paris Climate Agreement
? 28
Source: Washington Post 29
Reform (Privatization) of Air Traffic Control (ATC) June 2017 ▪
Trump sends memo to Congress outlining ideas for reforming ATC
His Plan ▪
Detach ATC from Federal Aviation Administration within three years and privatize it
▪
Track airplanes using GPS as opposed to the current method of radar and radio signals
Benefits of Privatization ▪
Fewer delays
▪
Safer tracking system
▪
Lower costs for passengers
30
The Current Debt Ceiling Situation
Years
Debt Limit 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
$5.5 T $5.95 T $5.95 T $5.95 T $5.95 T $5.95 T $6.4 T
National debt has more than doubled in the last 10 years
$7.38 T $7.38 T $8.18 T
$8.97 T $9.82 T $10.62 T
$12.1 T $14.29 T $15.19 T $16.39 T $16.7 T $18.11 T $20.1 T
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
Trillions US$
20,000
25,000 Source: US Treasury 31
Impact Of Previous Debt Ceiling Negotiations Debt Limit: Self-inflicted crises
Oct. 2015 Debt ceiling raised until Mar. Oct. 2013 15, 2017 Aug. 2011 Government shuts down S&P downgrades US credit rating from AAA to AA+
25,000
Trillions US$
20,000
15,000
10,000
Dec. 1995 – Jan. 1996 22 day shutdown
5,000
Clinton
Obama
Bush
0 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Years Source: New York Times 32
Trump and Congress Agree To 3 Month Debt Limit Extension ▪
On September 8th, Congress passed the Hurricane Harvey disaster relief bill that contained the following: – $15.3 billion in disaster-related aid – 3 month suspension of debt ceiling – NFIP extension for 3 months
Hurricane Harvey
$$15 Billion in aid
Hurricane Irma
Aid $ TBD 33
Current US Tax Rates And Trump Plan
Current Law
Trump Plan
Rates on Ordinary Income
43.6% 39.6% 36% 31% 28% 15%
33% 25% 12%
Corporate Tax
35%
15%
Border Adjustment Tax
N/A
20% on all imports
Source: DonaldJTrump.com, Forbes 34
Comparing Corporate Income Tax Rates Around The Globe 45 40 Current US Rate
35 France
Percent
30 25
Japan
Germany
20
Canada
Proposed 15% US rate
UK
15 10
Ireland
5 0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Year Source: Wall Street Journal, Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development 35
Trump’s Cabinet Net Worth
Net Worth
▪
Defense: Gen. James Mattis
▪
Treasury: Steven Mnuchin
▪
Attorney General: Jeff Sessions
$300M
▪
Commerce: Wilbur Ross
▪
Labor: Alex Acosta
▪
Education: Betsy DeVos
▪
Health and Human Services: Tom Price
$10M
▪
Secretary of State: Rex Tillerson
$325M
▪
Homeland Security: Elaine Duke
$2.5B
$1.25B
▪ ▪ ▪ ▪ ▪ ▪ ▪ ▪
National Intelligence: Dan Coats Energy: Rick Perry Housing and Urban Development: Ben Carson Transportation: Elaine Chao Interior: Ryan Zinke Agriculture: Sonny Perdue Veterans Affairs: David Shulkin National Security Advisor: Lt. Gen. H.R. McMaster ▪ National Economic Council: Gary Cohn
$29M
$24M
$16M
$250M
36
Fun Facts About Trump’s Cabinet ▪ Donald Trump guest starred on Linda McMahon’s World Wrestling Entertainment Inc. (WWE) network in 2015.
▪ Trump kept Obama’s VA secretary David Shulkin in his cabinet.
▪
Ben Carson was the first surgeon in the world to successfully separate conjoined twins in 1987.
▪ Billionaire Betsy DeVos initially supported Gov. John Kasich and refused to ever support Trump.
37
Fun Facts About Trump’s Cabinet ▪ Rick Perry called for elimination of the Energy Department in 2011 primary.
▪ Rex Tillerson was head of the Boy Scouts of America from 2010-2012 and played a major role in allowing openly gay youth to participate. ▪ President Reagan nominated Jeff Sessions for federal judgeship in 1986, but the Senate rejected the nomination citing concerns over racist remarks. Jeff Sessions was the first sitting Senator to endorse Donald Trump.
▪ Sean Spicer chews 35 pieces of Cinnamon Orbit gum a day… and swallows them. That's a $1,400-a-year expense.
▪ He was also the White House Easter bunny in 2008.
38
Trump’s Disappearing Advisors Dismissed July 31st, 2017
Dismissed August 18th, 2017 Dismissed July 21st, 2017 Dismissed February 13th, 2017
39
40
The Rules Of Engagement Have Changed In Washington ▪ Public policy and corporate reputation management – Heightened regulatory and political scrutiny require new approaches – Respond to growing anti-corporate public opinion – Coordinated government relations, communication and brand management to respond to Washington’s challenges
▪ Establishing yourself as a trusted "Thought Leader” – Provide educational and informative content to policymakers – Leverage convening power to assemble policymakers, business leaders and the media to discuss important policy topics in open forums – Thought leadership permeates employee base to help attract and retain talent
▪ Travelers’ thought leadership vehicle is the Travelers Institute
41
“Approximately 60 percent of all cyber-attacks target small and midsized businesses.”
Michael Echols, Director, Joint Program Management Office, National Protection and Program Directorate, U.S. Department of Homeland Security
42
Cybersecurity Guide
Released in September 2016, Empowering organizations to tackle evolving cyber threats, is a free educational guide that equips businesses and organizations with tools to improve cybersecurity through fundamental safeguards identified by our risk professionals.
Travelers Institute Partnerships
44
Questions?
45
1
Economic and Washington Public Policy Update
I.
Economic Outlook and Hot Topics in Public Policy for 2017
II. Implications of the 2016 US Election
III. Corporate Thought Leadership in Washington ▪ Travelers Institute
2
Economic Outlook and Hot Topics in Public Policy for 2017
3
Anemic GDP Growth Continues In US 10
8
Q2 2017: 3.0%
6
Percent Change
4 2 0
-2 -4 -6 -8 -10
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Year Source: St. Louis Federal Reserve 4
US Economy Underperforms Potential GDP For Prolonged Period GDP Chained 2009 Dollars, (1980 Q1 – 2017 Q2) 18.00
16.00
Potential GDP Real GDP (Trillions)
14.00 12.00 10.00
Actual GDP
8.00 6.00 4.00 2.00 0.00
1980
1984
1988
1992
1996
2000
2004
2008
2012
2016
Year Source: St. Louis Federal Reserve 5
World’s 10 Largest Economies From 2015 To 2030 United States
17.9
China
10.9
India
2
4.1
Germany Brazil
1.8
United Kingdom
0
4.0 3.6
Mexico: 1.1 trillion
3.3
0.9
1
2.6
1.3 1.1
2.4
1.6
Russia
4.5
1.1
0.8
2.4
Canada
6.4
2.2
2.8
France
6.6 2.3
3.4
22.2
11.3
4.6
Japan
24.8
6.9
5
(0.5% of world population)
10
15
2015 GDP
20
2030 Predicted GDP Growth
25
30
Trillion Dollars
Source: Bloomberg 6
Global GDP Recovery Since The Recession
125
…off the charts….literally! (India: ~172 2017Q2) (China: ~182 2017Q2)
India Brazil
China
2009Q2 = 100 (trough of US recession)
120
Canada US UK
115
110
Japan European Union
105
100
95
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Year
2014
2015
2016
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics 7
Quality Of Employment Remains A Concern National Unemployment Rate (January 2007 – August 2017) 18
Total Unemployment includes those who are unemployed, marginally attached, or parttime for economic reasons
16
Percent
14
8.6% 12
Unemployment Rate 4.4%
10
8
6
4 2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Year Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics 8
Example B Is Not Included In The 8.6% Example A
Example B
9
Comparing Presidential Recessions Percentage Jobs Gained/Lost Since Recession Onset 2.00%
H.W. Bush (1990) 0.00%
-2.00%
Bush (2001) 7 ⅟2 Years
-4.00%
Reagan (1981)
-6.00%
Obama (2008) -8.00%
-10.00%
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Years Source: St. Louis Federal Reserve 10
Hillary’s Uphill Climb Was Tough
THIS WAS SUPPOSED TO BE EASY?!
11
US Consumer Sentiment Vs. The Equity Market 100.0
2500
95.0
2300
90.0
2100
S&P 500
Jan. 1966 = 100
1900 85.0 1700 80.0 1500
75.0 1300 70.0 1100
August 2017: 96.8 65.0
900
60.0
700
55.0
500
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Year Source: University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers 12
Oil - Cheaper Than Your Morning Coffee…Or Evening Vodka
Oil
Water
Reg. Gasoline
Milk
Coffee
Wine
Vodka
$49/bbl
$1.30/ gallon
$2.65/ gallon
$4.99/ gallon
$3/cup
$15/ bottle
$20/ bottle
$ per gallon
$1.16
$1.30
$2.65
$4.99
$19.20
$75.71
$100.94
Basis to Water
$-0.14
$0.00
$1.35
$3.69
$17.90
$74.41
$99.64 Source: Zero Hedge
13
US Consumer Spending Keeps The Economy Afloat Personal Consumption Expenditures (1980 Q1 – 2017 Q2) 10
Q2: 2.8%
8 6
Percent Change
4 2 0 -2
-4 -6 -8 -10 1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
Year Source: St. Louis Federal Reserve 14
Small Business Confidence Continues… NFIB Small Business Optimism Index (July 1998 – August 2017) August 2017: 105.3 Index Value (Long-term average =100)
110
105
100
95
90
85
80 1998
2002
2006
2010
2014
Year Source: National Federation of Independent Business’ Small Business Economic Trends 15
US Goods Trade Balance With… 50,000
Canada 2016: -11bil. 0 -50,000
Mexico 2016: -$63bil.
-150,000 -200,000 -250,000 -300,000 -350,000
China 2016: -$347bil.
Year
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
1989
1988
1987
1986
-400,000 1985
Millions US$
-100,000
Source: US Census Bureau 16
2016 US Elections… Trump Trumped the Establishment
17
Incumbent 2-Term US Presidents – Party Losses Suffered
Senate Seats
House Seats
Governorships
State Legislators
7
45
11
524
9
42
7
324
13
69
11
932
Source: Politico 18
Independents Decide All US Elections… Self-Described Party Affiliation (January 2009 – August 2017) 50
Independent: 41% 45
Percent
40
Democrat: 28%
35 30 25
Republican: 28%
20 15
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Year
2014
2015
2016
2017
Source: Gallup Polls 19
Political Pollsters… They Were Talking To The Wrong People
20
2016 US Presidential Results
Popular Vote Clinton: 64.8M Trump: 62.5M
Source: Washington Post 21
2016 US House Of Representatives Results
Source: Washington Post 22
US Senate Seats To Defend In 2018
Republicans (8) Luther Strange – AL Jeff Flake – AZ
Roger Wicker – MS Deb Fischer – NE Dean Heller – NV Bob Corker – TN
Democrats (23) Dianne Feinstein – CA
Bob Menendez – NJ
Chris Murphy – CT
Martin Heinrich – NM
Tom Carper – DE
Kirsten Gillibrand – NY
Bill Nelson – FL
Heidi Heitkamp – ND
Mazie Hirono – HI
Sherrod Brown – OH
Joe Donnelly – IN
Bob Casey Jr. – PA
Ben Cardin - MD
Sheldon Whitehouse – RI
Ted Cruz – TX
Elizabeth Warren – MA
Tim Kaine – VA
Orrin Hatch – UT
Debbie Stabenow – MI
Maria Cantwell – WA
John Barrasso – WY
Amy Klobuchar – MN
Joe Manchin – WV
Claire McCaskill – MO
Tammy Baldwin – WI
Jon Tester – MT
23
Unfavorable Ratings Of US Major Party Presidential Nominees (1956-2017) 70 63% 60 50
55%
57%
47%
Percent
40 30 20 10 0
President Source: Investment Strategy Group, Gallup, Professor Allan Lichtman, Washington Post, Cook Political Report, Real Clear Politics 24
Least Popular US President In 4 Decades Inauguration Day Favorability 90 80
78%
79%
68%
70 58%
65%
62%
Percent
60 50 40%
40 30
20 10 0
President Source: Washington Post 25
Election Demographics: Romney vs. Trump vs. Clinton vs. Obama (2012 & 2016)
Romney
Trump
Clinton
(2012)
(2016)
Obama
(2016)
(2012)
59%
58%
37%
39%
6%
8%
88%
93%
Latino
27%
29%
65%
71%
Women
44%
42%
54%
55%
White Women
56%
53%
43%
42%
College Graduate
51%
45%
49%
47%
Non-College Graduate White Men
31%
72%
23%
38%
White African American
Source: New York Times 26
Trump Administration Gets Busy…
27
What Can Trump And GOP Congress Achieve?
▪ Immigration reform – wall on the Mexican border from Corpus Christi, TX to San Diego, CA – Enhanced screening and tightening of immigrants ▪ Infrastructure spending to increase …a lot
▪ Free trade deals renegotiated and killed TPP
?
▪ Major tax reform both – individual and corporate rates reduced
▪ Repeal of Obamacare, but preservation of smart ideas ▪ Approval of the Keystone XL Pipeline ▪ Reform Air Traffic Control and Federal Aviation Administration
▪ Withdrawn from Paris Climate Agreement
? 28
Source: Washington Post 29
Reform (Privatization) of Air Traffic Control (ATC) June 2017 ▪
Trump sends memo to Congress outlining ideas for reforming ATC
His Plan ▪
Detach ATC from Federal Aviation Administration within three years and privatize it
▪
Track airplanes using GPS as opposed to the current method of radar and radio signals
Benefits of Privatization ▪
Fewer delays
▪
Safer tracking system
▪
Lower costs for passengers
30
The Current Debt Ceiling Situation
Years
Debt Limit 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
$5.5 T $5.95 T $5.95 T $5.95 T $5.95 T $5.95 T $6.4 T
National debt has more than doubled in the last 10 years
$7.38 T $7.38 T $8.18 T
$8.97 T $9.82 T $10.62 T
$12.1 T $14.29 T $15.19 T $16.39 T $16.7 T $18.11 T $20.1 T
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
Trillions US$
20,000
25,000 Source: US Treasury 31
Impact Of Previous Debt Ceiling Negotiations Debt Limit: Self-inflicted crises
Oct. 2015 Debt ceiling raised until Mar. Oct. 2013 15, 2017 Aug. 2011 Government shuts down S&P downgrades US credit rating from AAA to AA+
25,000
Trillions US$
20,000
15,000
10,000
Dec. 1995 – Jan. 1996 22 day shutdown
5,000
Clinton
Obama
Bush
0 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Years Source: New York Times 32
Trump and Congress Agree To 3 Month Debt Limit Extension ▪
On September 8th, Congress passed the Hurricane Harvey disaster relief bill that contained the following: – $15.3 billion in disaster-related aid – 3 month suspension of debt ceiling – NFIP extension for 3 months
Hurricane Harvey
$$15 Billion in aid
Hurricane Irma
Aid $ TBD 33
Current US Tax Rates And Trump Plan
Current Law
Trump Plan
Rates on Ordinary Income
43.6% 39.6% 36% 31% 28% 15%
33% 25% 12%
Corporate Tax
35%
15%
Border Adjustment Tax
N/A
20% on all imports
Source: DonaldJTrump.com, Forbes 34
Comparing Corporate Income Tax Rates Around The Globe 45 40 Current US Rate
35 France
Percent
30 25
Japan
Germany
20
Canada
Proposed 15% US rate
UK
15 10
Ireland
5 0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Year Source: Wall Street Journal, Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development 35
Trump’s Cabinet Net Worth
Net Worth
▪
Defense: Gen. James Mattis
▪
Treasury: Steven Mnuchin
▪
Attorney General: Jeff Sessions
$300M
▪
Commerce: Wilbur Ross
▪
Labor: Alex Acosta
▪
Education: Betsy DeVos
▪
Health and Human Services: Tom Price
$10M
▪
Secretary of State: Rex Tillerson
$325M
▪
Homeland Security: Elaine Duke
$2.5B
$1.25B
▪ ▪ ▪ ▪ ▪ ▪ ▪ ▪
National Intelligence: Dan Coats Energy: Rick Perry Housing and Urban Development: Ben Carson Transportation: Elaine Chao Interior: Ryan Zinke Agriculture: Sonny Perdue Veterans Affairs: David Shulkin National Security Advisor: Lt. Gen. H.R. McMaster ▪ National Economic Council: Gary Cohn
$29M
$24M
$16M
$250M
36
Fun Facts About Trump’s Cabinet ▪ Donald Trump guest starred on Linda McMahon’s World Wrestling Entertainment Inc. (WWE) network in 2015.
▪ Trump kept Obama’s VA secretary David Shulkin in his cabinet.
▪
Ben Carson was the first surgeon in the world to successfully separate conjoined twins in 1987.
▪ Billionaire Betsy DeVos initially supported Gov. John Kasich and refused to ever support Trump.
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Fun Facts About Trump’s Cabinet ▪ Rick Perry called for elimination of the Energy Department in 2011 primary.
▪ Rex Tillerson was head of the Boy Scouts of America from 2010-2012 and played a major role in allowing openly gay youth to participate. ▪ President Reagan nominated Jeff Sessions for federal judgeship in 1986, but the Senate rejected the nomination citing concerns over racist remarks. Jeff Sessions was the first sitting Senator to endorse Donald Trump.
▪ Sean Spicer chews 35 pieces of Cinnamon Orbit gum a day… and swallows them. That's a $1,400-a-year expense.
▪ He was also the White House Easter bunny in 2008.
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Trump’s Disappearing Advisors Dismissed July 31st, 2017
Dismissed August 18th, 2017 Dismissed July 21st, 2017 Dismissed February 13th, 2017
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The Rules Of Engagement Have Changed In Washington ▪ Public policy and corporate reputation management – Heightened regulatory and political scrutiny require new approaches – Respond to growing anti-corporate public opinion – Coordinated government relations, communication and brand management to respond to Washington’s challenges
▪ Establishing yourself as a trusted "Thought Leader” – Provide educational and informative content to policymakers – Leverage convening power to assemble policymakers, business leaders and the media to discuss important policy topics in open forums – Thought leadership permeates employee base to help attract and retain talent
▪ Travelers’ thought leadership vehicle is the Travelers Institute
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“Approximately 60 percent of all cyber-attacks target small and midsized businesses.”
Michael Echols, Director, Joint Program Management Office, National Protection and Program Directorate, U.S. Department of Homeland Security
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Cybersecurity Guide
Released in September 2016, Empowering organizations to tackle evolving cyber threats, is a free educational guide that equips businesses and organizations with tools to improve cybersecurity through fundamental safeguards identified by our risk professionals.
Travelers Institute Partnerships
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Questions?
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