Yamama Cement Co. - Aljazira Capital

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Yamama Cement Co. August 2016

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Yamamah Cement: Q2-2016 net profits were below our estimates; the deviation is attributed to lower than expected volumetric sales and higher production cost/ ton. “Overweight” reiterated with lower PT.

During Q2-2016, the company registered a fall of 9.0%YoY in volumetric sales, as dispatches in Q2-2016 stood at 1.38 MT vs. 1.51 MT in 2Q-2015. The company’s revenue stood at SAR 280.5mn, significantly below our estimates of SAR 328.9mn due to a decline in selling prices. The average price realization/ton is expected to be at SAR 203/ton, as compared to SAR 227.2/ton in 1Q2016 and SAR 223.9/ton in 2Q2015. This is due to slowdown in Ramdan and continued oversupply in the market, following high clinker inventory, additional cement capacity which came on stream in 2015. Gross profit stood at SAR 113.02mn, significantly below our AJC estimates of SAR 161.5mn due to higher than expected COGS, and lower than expected sales volume. Gross margin in 2Q-2016 declined to 40.3% from an average of 57.7% in FY2015 and 49.6% in 1Q2016 due to higher production cost/ton after the reduction in subsidy on fuel and higher deprecation. Based on our calculation, we estimate the cost/ton to increase to SAR 121.5/ton in 2Q2016 vs. SAR 114.5/ton in 1Q-2016. Operating profit for 2Q-2016 stood at SAR 97.01mn depicting a decline of 42.9%YoY, and 43.3%QoQ; where the company’s OPEX (SG & A) has increased by 2.9%QoQ to SAR 16.0mn, as compared to SAR 15.55mn in the previous quarter. Better 6M-2016 sales growth than the market average; clinker inventory at high level: During January–June 2016, Yamama Cement’s sales rose by 0.8%YoY to 3.03 MT, as compared to the sector decline rate of 3.2%YoY in the same period. We believe the strong growth is attributed to the continued construction activities in the region. During the same period, industry-wide clinker inventory increased by 7.2% to 21.36MT, as compared to the company’s level of 3.64 MT. This indicates high clinker level with almost 50% of the company’s production capacity. We believe that the activation of the governmental decision to partially drop the ban on clinker exports could help the company offload excess inventory and relieve oversupply in the domestic market, which could benefit the company in terms of higher sales prices. Dividend level is in concern due to the cost of relocating Yamamah plant: The company maintained its dividend payments (SAR 3 DPS) for 2015 as was in 2014 and 2013, offering an attractive dividend yield of 9.5% in 2015. However, due to the cost of relocating the company’s cement factory to Riyadh’s outskirts; the continuation of the payment level is in doubt. Based on our earnings forecast, Yamamah Cement is trading at a PE multiple of 8.28x for FY16E, with an expected dividend yield of about 6.5% (SAR 1.50 DPS).

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We reiterate our “Overweight” recommendation on YAMAMA cement with a lower PT of SAR 25.9/share indicating a potential upside of 12.1%: Yamamah Cement Co. is expected to post SAR 564.2mn in net income (2.79 EPS) for 2016, recording a decline of 12.1% for the year influenced by lower selling prices, higher fuel cost and depreciation. Therefore, we reduce our target price to SAR 25.9/share; indicating a potential upside of 12.1% over current market price of SAR 23.10/share (as of 31st July 2016); however, due to the current low market price ( At 52 weeks low), we remain ‘Overweight’ for the stock. . The company is trading at attractive forward PE and P/B of 8.28x and 1.26x respectively based on our 2016 earnings forecast. The last three-years mean PE multiple for the cement sector currently stands at about 13-14x, which indicates that Yamamah Cement, one of the largest cement companies in KSA, is still undervalued. © All rights reserved

*prices as of 31st of July 2016

Key Financials FY14

FY15

FY16E FY17E

1,329 -13.8% 670.8 -22.9% 3.31

1,311 -1.3% 641.9 -4.3% 3.17

1313 0.1% 565.2 -12.1% 2.79

SARmn (unless specified) Revenues Growth % Net Income Growth % EPS

1359 3.5% 588.9 4.4% 2.91

Source: Company reports, Aljazira Capital,

Key Ratios SARmn (unless specified) FY14

FY15

FY16E FY17E

Gross Margin EBITDA Margin Net Margin P/E P/B EV/EBITDA (x) ROE ROA Dividend Yield

57.7% 53.0% 49.0% 9.92x 1.69x 16.75x 17.1% 15.7% 9.54%

46.5% 41.8% 43.0% 8.28x 1.26x 21.19x 14.0% 15.2% 6.50%

53.6% 49.6% 50.5% 13.7x 2.47x 17.66x 17.6% 16.1% 5.2%

46.8% 42.3% 43.3% 7.93x 1.27x 20.25x 14.7% 15.9% 6.50%

Source: Company reports, Aljazira Capital

Shareholders Pattern Holding 5.53% 9.12% 85.35%

Shareholders Pattern Public Pension Agency Prince Sultan Bin M. Al Saud Public

Source: Company reports, Aljazira Capital

Key Market Data Market Cap (mn) YTD % 52 Week (High) 52 Week (Low) Shares Outstanding (mn)

4.67 -26.6% 46.60 22.80 202.50 Source: Bloomberg, Aljazira Capital

Price Performance 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20

11000 10000 9000 8000 7000 6000 5000 14 11 /6 /1 4 1/ 6/ 15 3/ 6/ 15 5/ 6/ 15 7/ 6/ 15 9/ 6/ 15 11 /6 /1 5 1/ 6/ 16 3/ 6/ 16 5/ 6/ 16 7/ 6/ 16

Weak realization per ton, higher depreciation and production cost to result in weak performance in 2Q2016: Q2-2016 net profit came significantly below our expectation and showed a deviation of 21.4% from AJC estimates and 20.6% lower than the market consensus of SAR 146.4mn. Yamamah Cement Company posted net income of SAR 116.3mn; indicating a fall of 39.3%YoY and 22.7%QoQ. We believe the weakness was mainly ascribed to i) significantly lower than expected realization per ton. ii) higher cost of sales due to higher depreciation of fixed assets as a result of the decision to move the factory. iii) below expectation volumetric sales due to the larger part of Ramdan coinciding in June, as compared with June-2015. However, the company’s investment income outperforms our estimates and switch to a profit of SAR 17.9mn, as compared to losses of SAR 19.9mn in 1Q2016.

Upside / (Downside)

14

Deviation (%) -14.7% -21.4%

25.9 12.1%

6/

Actual 2Q-16 280.46 116.29 0.57

23.1

6/

Forecasts 2Q-16 328.88 148.01 0.73

Overweight

Current Price* (SAR) Target Price (SAR)

7/

Amount in SAR mn; unless specified Sales revenues Net profit EPS (SAR)

Recommendation

9/

Investment Update

Tadawul

Yamama Cement

Analyst

Analyst

Jassim Al-Jubran

Waleed Al-jubayr

+966 11 2256248 [email protected]

+966 11 2256146 [email protected]

RESEARCH DIVISION

Acting Head of Research

Talha Nazar +966 11 2256115 [email protected]

+966 11 2256374 [email protected]

Analyst

Jassim Al-Jubran +966 11 2256248 [email protected]

Waleed Al-jubayr +966 11 2256146 [email protected]

BROKERAGE AND INVESTMENT CENTERS DIVISION RESEARCH DIVISION

Sultan Al Kadi

Analyst

General Manager – Brokerage Services &

AGM-Head of international and institutional

AGM- Head of Western and Southern Region Investment Centers & ADC

sales

brokerage

Brokerage

Alaa Al-Yousef

Luay Jawad Al-Motawa

Abdullah Q. Al-Misbani

+966 11 2256060 [email protected]

+966 11 2256277 [email protected]

+966 12 6618400 [email protected]

AGM-Head of Sales And Investment Centers

AGM-Head of Qassim & Eastern Province

Central Region

Abdullah Al-Rahit

Sultan Ibrahim AL-Mutawa

+966 16 3617547 [email protected]

+966 11 2256364 [email protected]

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RATING TERMINOLOGY

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2. 3. 4.

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