Singer Thailand Buy (15E TP Bt15.80)
Company Update
Close Bt13.20
Commerce March 18, 2015
Earnings upgrade/ Earnings downgrade/Overview unchanged
Growth to slow
FY15
FY16
Consensus EPS (Bt)
1.275
1.535
KT ZMICO vs. consensus Share data
‐23.9%
‐23.8%
Reuters / Bloomberg
SING.BK/SINGER TB
Paid‐up Shares (m)
270.00
Par (Bt)
1.00
Market cap (Bt bn / US$ m)
4.00/108.00
Foreign limit / actual (%)
49.00/41.18
52 week High / Low (Bt)
21.70/11.70
Avg. daily T/O (shares 000)
1,445.00
NVDR (%)
1.13
Estimated free float (%)
59.97
Beta
0.67
URL
www.singerthai.co.th
CGR
Waraporn Wiboonkanarak Analyst, no. 2482
[email protected] 66 (0) 2624‐6273
Target price cut, although BUY rating maintained The slower‐than‐expected domestic spending recovery leads us to make another round of earnings cuts for SINGER. With an estimated lower long‐term ROE, our fair value, which is pegged with the Gordon Growth Model, has also been revised down to Bt15.80 (PBV 2.5x). SINGER’s near‐ term share price is likely to underperform as long as there is no clear signal of spending recovery. Our BUY rating is based on its earnings resiliency along with management’s fast‐moving marketing reactions amid the unfavorable outlook. Adoption of a more relaxed strategy SINGER has set a revenue growth target in the range of 7‐10% this year. Commercial products will be the key growth driver, with an attempt to boost its revenue contribution to 60%, from 55% last year. Apart from launching new products, a more relaxed installment policy will also be provided, including lowering down payments to 5% from the earlier 10% and extending its installment period to four years from two years currently, in a bid to boost top line growth as well as lessen NPL pressure. In response to softer demand in household products, SINGER will tap into new channels such as apartments and industrial estates. Another round of earnings cuts We again trim our 2015E‐2016E earnings estimates by around 14% to Bt263mn (+9%YoY) and Bt316mn (+20%YoY), respectively. This is mainly due to the lower gross margin, reflecting the higher contribution of commercial products. We like its strategy to gear toward service fee‐ based revenue on top of its vending machine sales; however, the contribution will remain minimal in the near term. No progress in new investment SINGER’s management clearly stated that it is not interested in the high‐ risk nano‐finance business as the market widely expected. In addition, the company is considering an M&A deal, which is currently in the due diligence process. No conclusion is expected in the near term. Financial and Valuation FY Ended 31 Dec Revenues (Btmn) Net profit (Btmn) EPS (Bt) EPS growth (%) Dividend (Bt) BV (Bt) FY Ended 31 Dec Norm. PER (x) EV/EBITDA (x) P/BV (x) Dividend yield (%) ROE (%) Net gearing (%)
2012 2,951 226 0.84 59% 0.30 4.42 2012 19.93 14.15 3.78 1.8% 20.8% 47.9%
2013 3,627 321 1.19 42% 0.45 5.30 2013 15.50 10.73 3.47 2.4% 24.4% 1.6%
2014 3,427 241 0.89 ‐25% 0.53 5.84 2014 14.20 9.08 2.17 4.2% 16.0% ‐0.2%
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 1 of 4
2015E 3,701 263 0.97 9% 0.58 6.29 2015E 13.54 9.92 2.10 4.4% 16.1% 31.5%
2016E 4,122 316 1.17 20% 0.70 6.87 2016E 11.29 8.51 1.92 5.3% 17.8% 18.2%
Figure 1: Earnings revision 2015E Ended Dec Previous New Revenue (Btmn) 3,825 3,701 EBITDA (Btmn) 475 413 Net profit (Btmn) 307 263 % growth 14.0% 9.0% Core profit (Btmn) 307 263 % growth 27.2% 9.0% Core EPS (Bt) 1.14 0.97 Core EPS growth (%) 27.5% 9.0% Gross margin (%) 53.3% 52.4% SG&A exp to sales (%) 42.3% 42.6% Source: The Company and KT Zmico Research
%chg ‐3.2% ‐13.0% ‐14.3% ‐4.9% ‐14.3% ‐18.2% ‐14.5% ‐18.5% ‐0.9% 0.3%
Previous 4,232 527 366 17.9% 366 19.2% 1.36 19.3% 53.2% 42.3%
2016E New 4,145 459 316 20.1% 316 20.1% 1.17 20.1% 51.9% 42.3%
%chg ‐2.0% ‐12.9% ‐13.7% 2.1% ‐13.7% 0.8% ‐13.9% 0.8% ‐1.3% 0.0%
Figure 2: PER and PBV band (X)
PER (x)
30.00 25.00
+2.0SD
20.00 15.00
+1.0SD
10.00 5.00
‐0.5SD
‐ (5.00) (10.00) Apr‐14
Mar‐15
May‐13
Jul‐11
Jun‐12
Sep‐09
Aug‐10
Aug‐08
Sep‐06
Aug‐07
Oct‐04
Sep‐05
Nov‐03
Jan‐02
Dec‐02
(15.00)
Source: The Company and KT Zmico Research REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 2 of 4
Financial Summary PROFIT & LOSS (Btm) Revenues Cost of sales and service Gross profit SG&A EBITDA Depreciation & amortization EBIT Interest expense Other income / exp. EBT Corporate tax Net profit Reported EPS Fully diluted EPS Core net profit Core EPS Dividend (Bt)
2012 2,951 (1,341) 1,610 (1,289) 314 (24) 335 (45) 13 290 (63) 226 0.84 0.84 226 0.84 0.30
2013 3,627 (1,764) 1,863 (1,437) 410 (26) 439 (55) 12 385 (64) 321 1.19 1.19 321 1.19 0.45
2014 3,427 (1,619) 1,809 (1,471) 319 (27) 351 (58) 12 292 (51) 241 0.89 0.89 241 0.89 0.53
2015E 3,701 (1,667) 1,939 (1,577) 356 (27) 386 (57) 24 329 (66) 263 0.97 0.97 263 0.97 0.58
2016E 4,145 (1,857) 2,151 (1,755) 430 (35) 424 (29) 28 395 (79) 316 1.17 1.17 316 1.17 0.70
BALANCE SHEET (Btm) Cash and equivalents Current portion of installment receivables Inventories Installment Receivables PP&E‐net Other assets Total assets ST debt & current portion Long‐term debt Total liabilities Paid‐up shares Shareholder equity Total liab. & shareholder equity
2012 194 1,125 197 468 361 365 2,710 165 600 1,517 270 1,193 2,710
2013 202 1,392 327 589 361 386 3,256 225 0 1,824 270 1,432 3,256
2014 290 1,375 296 620 387 388 3,356 129 158 1,778 270 1,578 3,356
2015E 436 1,196 352 510 412 348 3,254 520 450 1,557 270 1,698 3,255
2016E 589 1,224 319 525 417 382 3,455 350 600 1,600 270 1,856 3,456
CASH FLOW (Btm) Net income Depreciation & amortization Change in working capital Cash flow from operations Capex (Invest)/Divest Cash flow from investing Debt financing (repayment) Equity financing Dividend payment Cash flow from financing Net change in cash Free cash flow FCF per share (Bt)
2012 226 24 (110) 141 (20) (18) 30 0 (54) (70) 53 121 0.45
2013 321 26 (570) (224) (18) (15) (540) 0 (81) 247 8 ‐242 ‐0.90
2014 241 27 95 363 (40) (6) 62 0 (122) (268) 88 323 1.20
2015E 263 27 145 436 (61) (59) 683 0 (143) (230) 146 375 1.39
2016E 316 35 22 373 (42) (41) (20) 0 (158) (178) 154 331 1.23
PROFITABILITY Revenue growth (%) EBITDA growth (%) EPS growth (%) Gross margin (%) EBITDA margin (%) Operating margin (%) Net margin (%) Core profit margin (%) Effective tax rate (%)
2012 23.8 58.5 58.8 54.6 12.2 10.9 7.7 7.7 21.9
2013 22.9 29.5 41.7 51.4 12.8 11.8 8.8 8.8 16.6
2014 (5.5) (18.9) (24.7) 52.8 11.0 9.9 7.0 7.0 17.4
2015E 8.0 9.5 9.0 52.4 11.2 9.8 7.1 7.1 20.0
2016E 12.0 11.1 20.1 51.9 11.1 9.5 7.6 7.6 20.0
FINANCIAL QUALITY Total debt (Btm) Net debt (Cash) (Btm) Net debt to equity (x) Interest coverage (x)
765 571 0.48 7.42
225 23 0.02 8.02
287 (2) (0.00) 6.01
970 534 0.31 6.77
950 361 0.19 14.79
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 3 of 4
DISCLAIMER This document is produced using open sources believed to be reliable. However, their accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. The statements and opinions herein were formed after due and careful consideration for use as information for the purposes of investment. The opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. This document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. The use of any information contained in this document shall be at the sole discretion and risk of the user.
KT ZMICO RESEARCH – RECOMMENDATION DEFINITIONS STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS BUY: Expecting positive total returns of 15% or more over the next 12 months OUTPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to exceed market return over six months period because of specific catalysts UNDERPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to below market return over six months period because of specific catalysts SELL: Expecting negative total returns of 10% or more over the next 12 months
SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS OVERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to outperform the relevant primary market index by at least 10% over the next 12 months. NEUTRAL: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to perform in line with the relevant primary market index over the next 12 months. UNDERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to underperform the relevant primary market index by 10% over the next 12 months.
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 4 of 4
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KT•ZMICO Securities Company Limited
st
8 , 15 -17 , 19 , 21 Floor, Liberty Square Bldg., 287 Silom Road, Bangrak, Bangkok 10500 Telephone: (66-2) 695-5000
Phaholyothin Branch
rd
Fax. (66-2) 631-1709
Ploenchit Branch
th
nd
2
Sindhorn Branch
3 Floor, Shinnawatra Tower II,
8 Floor, Ton Son Tower,
1291/1 Phaholyothin Road,
900 Ploenchit Road, Lumpini,
Floor, Sindhorn Tower 1, 130-132 Wireless Road, Lumpini,
Phayathai, Bangkok 10400
Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330
Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330
Telephone: (66-2) 686-1500
Telephone: (66-2) 626-6000
Telephone: (66-2) 627-3550
Fax. (66-2) 686-1666
Fax. (66-2) 626-6111
Fax. (66-2) 627-3582, 627-3600
Nakhon Pathom Branch 1156 Petchakasem Road, Sanamchan Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang , Nakhon Pathom Province 73000 Telephone: (034) 271300 Fax: (034) 271300 #100
Chachoengsao Branch
Viphavadee Branch
Phitsanulok Branch
G Floor, Lao Peng Nguan 1 Bldg.,
Krung Thai Bank, Singhawat Branch
333 Soi Cheypuand, Viphavadee-Rangsit Road,
114 Singhawat Road,
Ladyao, Jatujak, Bangkok 10900
Muang, Phitsanulok 65000
Telephone: (66-2) 618-8500
Telephone: 083-490-2873
Fax. (66-2) 618-8569
th
Chonburi Branch
Pattaya Branch
108/34-36 Mahajakkrapad Road,
4 Floor, Forum Plaza Bldg.,
382/6-8 Moo 9, T. NongPrue,
T.Namuang, A.Muang,
870/52 Sukhumvit Road, T. Bangplasoy,
A. Banglamung, Cholburi 20260
Chachoengsao 24000
A. Muang, Cholburi 20000
Telephone: (038) 362-420-9
Telephone: (038) 813-088
Telephone: (038) 287-635
Fax. (038) 362-430
Fax. (038) 813-099
Fax. (038) 287-637
Khon Kaen Branch
5th Floor, Charoen Thani Princess Hotel,
Hat Yai Branch
Sriworajak Building Branch
200/301 Juldis Hatyai Plaza Floor 3,
1st – 2nd Floor, Sriworajak Building, 222
260 Srichan Road, T. Naimuang,
Niphat-Uthit 3 Rd,
Luang Road, Pomprab,
A. Muang, Khon Kaen 40000
Hatyai Songkhla 90110
Bankgok 10100
Telephone: (043) 389-171-193
Telephone: (074) 355-530-3
Telephone: (02) 689-3100
Fax. (043) 389-209
Fax: (074) 355-534
Fax. (02) 689-3199
Central World Branch
Chiang Mai Branch
Phuket Branch
999/9 The Offices at Central World,
422/49 Changklan Road, Changklan
22/61-63, Luang Por Wat Chalong Road,
16th Fl., Rama 1 Rd, Pathumwan,
Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang,
Talat Yai, Mueang Phuket,
Bangkok 10330
Chiang Mai 50100
Phuket 83000
Telephone: (66-2) 673-5000,
Telephone: (053) 270-072
Tel. (076) 222-811,(076) 222-683
(66-2) 264-5888 Fax. (66-2) 264-5899
Fax: (053) 272-618
Fax. (076) 222-861
Pak Chong Branch
Cyber Branch @ North Nana
173 175, Mittapap Road,
Krung Thai Bank PCL, 2 Floor, North Nana Branch 35 Sukhumvit Rd.,Klong Toey Nua Subdistrict , Wattana District, Bangkok 10110 Telephone: 083-490-2871
Nong Sarai, Pak Chong, Nakhon Ratchasima 30130 Tel. (044) 279-511 Fax. (044) 279-574
Nakhon Ratchasima Branch
Bangkhae Branch
6th Floor The Mall Group Building Bangkhae 275 Moo 1 Petchkasem Road, North Bangkhae, Bangkhae, Bangkok 10160 Tel. (66-2) 454-9979 Fax. (66-2) 454-9970
624/9 Changphuek Road, . Naimaung, A.Maung, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000 Telephone: (044) 247222 Fax: (044) 247171 Information herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its completeness and accuracy are not guaranteed. All opinions expressed constitute our views on that date and are not intended as an offer or solicitation to sell or buy any securities. Investors should exercise care when making a decision to invest in securities. No one may modify or distribute any part of this report unless written permission is first received from Seamico Securities Plc. If any modifications are made, quotes or references taken from the report and the report date must be clearly mentioned and must not cause misunderstanding or damage to the company.