15E TP Bt15.80 - Global Alliance Partners

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Singer Thailand   Buy (15E TP Bt15.80) 

Company Update 

Close Bt13.20

Commerce  March 18, 2015 

Earnings upgrade/ Earnings downgrade/Overview unchanged

 

Growth to slow   

 

FY15 

FY16 

Consensus EPS (Bt) 

1.275 

1.535 

KT ZMICO vs. consensus    Share data 

‐23.9% 

‐23.8% 

Reuters / Bloomberg 

   

SING.BK/SINGER TB 

Paid‐up Shares (m) 

270.00 

Par (Bt) 

1.00 

Market cap (Bt bn / US$ m) 

4.00/108.00 

Foreign limit / actual (%) 

49.00/41.18 

52 week High / Low (Bt) 

21.70/11.70 

Avg. daily T/O (shares 000) 

1,445.00 

NVDR (%) 

1.13 

Estimated free float (%) 

59.97 

Beta 

0.67 

URL 

www.singerthai.co.th   

CGR 

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak  Analyst, no. 2482 [email protected]  66 (0) 2624‐6273 

Target price cut, although BUY rating maintained  The slower‐than‐expected domestic spending recovery leads us to make  another  round  of  earnings  cuts  for  SINGER.  With  an  estimated  lower  long‐term ROE, our fair value, which is pegged with the Gordon Growth  Model, has also been revised down to Bt15.80 (PBV 2.5x). SINGER’s near‐ term  share  price  is  likely  to  underperform  as  long  as  there  is  no  clear  signal  of  spending  recovery.  Our  BUY  rating  is  based  on  its  earnings  resiliency  along  with  management’s  fast‐moving  marketing  reactions  amid the unfavorable outlook.   Adoption of a more relaxed strategy  SINGER has set a revenue growth target in the range of 7‐10% this year.   Commercial  products  will  be  the  key  growth  driver,  with  an  attempt  to  boost  its  revenue  contribution  to  60%,  from  55%  last  year.  Apart  from  launching  new  products,  a  more  relaxed  installment  policy  will  also  be  provided, including lowering down payments to 5% from the earlier 10%  and  extending  its  installment  period  to  four  years  from  two  years  currently, in a bid to boost top line growth as well as lessen NPL pressure.   In response to softer demand in household products, SINGER will tap into  new channels such as apartments and industrial estates.       Another round of earnings cuts  We  again  trim  our  2015E‐2016E  earnings  estimates  by  around  14%  to  Bt263mn (+9%YoY) and Bt316mn (+20%YoY), respectively. This is mainly  due  to  the  lower  gross  margin,  reflecting  the  higher  contribution  of  commercial  products.  We  like  its  strategy  to  gear  toward  service  fee‐  based  revenue  on  top  of  its  vending  machine  sales;  however,  the  contribution will remain minimal in the near term.  No progress in new investment  SINGER’s management clearly stated that it is not interested in the high‐ risk  nano‐finance  business  as  the  market  widely  expected.  In  addition,  the  company  is  considering  an  M&A  deal,  which  is  currently  in  the  due  diligence process. No conclusion is expected in the near term.    Financial and Valuation   FY Ended 31 Dec Revenues (Btmn) Net profit (Btmn) EPS (Bt)  EPS growth (%) Dividend (Bt) BV (Bt) FY Ended 31 Dec Norm. PER (x) EV/EBITDA (x) P/BV (x) Dividend yield (%) ROE (%) Net gearing (%)

2012 2,951  226  0.84  59% 0.30  4.42  2012 19.93  14.15  3.78  1.8% 20.8% 47.9%

2013 3,627   321   1.19   42% 0.45   5.30   2013 15.50   10.73   3.47   2.4% 24.4% 1.6%

2014  3,427   241   0.89   ‐25%  0.53   5.84   2014  14.20   9.08   2.17   4.2%  16.0%  ‐0.2% 

REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES                                   page 1 of 4 

2015E 3,701  263  0.97  9% 0.58  6.29  2015E 13.54  9.92  2.10  4.4% 16.1% 31.5%

2016E 4,122  316  1.17  20% 0.70  6.87  2016E 11.29  8.51  1.92  5.3% 17.8% 18.2%

  Figure 1: Earnings revision  2015E Ended Dec Previous New Revenue (Btmn)       3,825       3,701 EBITDA (Btmn)          475          413 Net profit (Btmn)          307          263 % growth 14.0% 9.0% Core profit (Btmn)          307          263 % growth 27.2% 9.0% Core EPS (Bt)         1.14         0.97 Core EPS growth (%) 27.5% 9.0% Gross margin (%) 53.3% 52.4% SG&A exp to sales (%) 42.3% 42.6% Source: The Company and KT Zmico Research 

%chg ‐3.2% ‐13.0% ‐14.3% ‐4.9% ‐14.3% ‐18.2% ‐14.5% ‐18.5% ‐0.9% 0.3%

Previous     4,232         527         366 17.9%         366 19.2%        1.36 19.3% 53.2% 42.3%

2016E New     4,145         459         316 20.1%         316 20.1%        1.17 20.1% 51.9% 42.3%

%chg ‐2.0% ‐12.9% ‐13.7% 2.1% ‐13.7% 0.8% ‐13.9% 0.8% ‐1.3% 0.0%  

   

Figure 2: PER and PBV band  (X)

PER (x)

30.00  25.00 

+2.0SD

20.00  15.00 

+1.0SD

10.00  5.00 

‐0.5SD

‐ (5.00) (10.00) Apr‐14

Mar‐15

May‐13

Jul‐11

Jun‐12

Sep‐09

Aug‐10

Aug‐08

Sep‐06

Aug‐07

Oct‐04

Sep‐05

Nov‐03

Jan‐02

Dec‐02

(15.00)

Source: The Company and KT Zmico Research                                            REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES                                   page 2 of 4 

Financial Summary  PROFIT & LOSS (Btm) Revenues Cost of sales and service Gross profit SG&A EBITDA Depreciation & amortization EBIT Interest expense  Other income / exp. EBT Corporate tax Net profit Reported EPS Fully diluted EPS Core net profit Core EPS Dividend (Bt)

2012 2,951 (1,341) 1,610 (1,289) 314 (24) 335 (45) 13 290 (63) 226 0.84 0.84 226 0.84 0.30

2013 3,627 (1,764) 1,863 (1,437) 410 (26) 439 (55) 12 385 (64) 321 1.19 1.19 321 1.19 0.45

2014 3,427 (1,619) 1,809 (1,471) 319 (27) 351 (58) 12 292 (51) 241 0.89 0.89 241 0.89 0.53

2015E 3,701 (1,667) 1,939 (1,577) 356 (27) 386 (57) 24 329 (66) 263 0.97 0.97 263 0.97 0.58

2016E 4,145 (1,857) 2,151 (1,755) 430 (35) 424 (29) 28 395 (79) 316 1.17 1.17 316 1.17 0.70

BALANCE SHEET (Btm) Cash and equivalents Current portion of installment receivables Inventories Installment Receivables PP&E‐net Other assets Total assets ST debt & current portion Long‐term debt Total liabilities Paid‐up shares Shareholder equity  Total liab. & shareholder equity

2012 194 1,125 197 468 361 365 2,710 165 600 1,517 270 1,193 2,710

2013 202 1,392 327 589 361 386 3,256 225 0 1,824 270 1,432 3,256

2014 290 1,375 296 620 387 388 3,356 129 158 1,778 270 1,578 3,356

2015E 436 1,196 352 510 412 348 3,254 520 450 1,557 270 1,698 3,255

2016E 589 1,224 319 525 417 382 3,455 350 600 1,600 270 1,856 3,456

CASH FLOW (Btm) Net income Depreciation & amortization Change in working capital Cash flow from operations  Capex (Invest)/Divest Cash flow from investing  Debt financing (repayment) Equity financing  Dividend payment Cash flow from financing  Net change in cash Free cash flow  FCF per share (Bt)

2012 226 24 (110) 141 (20) (18) 30 0 (54) (70) 53 121 0.45

2013 321 26 (570) (224) (18) (15) (540) 0 (81) 247 8 ‐242 ‐0.90

2014 241 27 95 363 (40) (6) 62 0 (122) (268) 88 323 1.20

2015E 263 27 145 436 (61) (59) 683 0 (143) (230) 146 375 1.39

2016E 316 35 22 373 (42) (41) (20) 0 (158) (178) 154 331 1.23

PROFITABILITY Revenue growth (%) EBITDA growth (%) EPS growth (%) Gross margin (%) EBITDA margin (%) Operating margin (%)  Net margin (%) Core profit margin (%) Effective tax rate (%)

2012 23.8 58.5 58.8 54.6 12.2 10.9 7.7 7.7 21.9

2013 22.9 29.5 41.7 51.4 12.8 11.8 8.8 8.8 16.6

2014 (5.5) (18.9) (24.7) 52.8 11.0 9.9 7.0 7.0 17.4

2015E 8.0 9.5 9.0 52.4 11.2 9.8 7.1 7.1 20.0

2016E 12.0 11.1 20.1 51.9 11.1 9.5 7.6 7.6 20.0

FINANCIAL QUALITY Total debt (Btm) Net debt (Cash) (Btm) Net debt to equity (x) Interest coverage (x)

765 571 0.48 7.42

225 23 0.02 8.02

287 (2) (0.00) 6.01

970 534 0.31 6.77

   

950 361 0.19 14.79  

REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES                                   page 3 of 4 

                                          DISCLAIMER  This  document  is  produced  using  open  sources  believed  to  be  reliable.  However,  their  accuracy  and  completeness  cannot be guaranteed. The statements and opinions herein were formed after due and careful consideration for use as  information for the purposes of investment. The opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. This  document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. The  use of any information contained in this document shall be at the sole discretion and risk of the user. 

  KT ZMICO RESEARCH – RECOMMENDATION DEFINITIONS  STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS  BUY:  Expecting  positive  total  returns  of  15%  or  more    over the next 12 months        OUTPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10%  to  +15%;  returns  expected  to  exceed  market  return    over six months period because of specific catalysts       UNDERPERFORM:  Expecting  total  returns  between    ‐10%  to  +15%;  returns  expected  to  below  market  return  over  six  months  period  because  of  specific  catalysts     SELL: Expecting negative total returns of 10% or more  over the next 12 months 

 

SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS    OVERWEIGHT:  The industry, as defined by the analyst's    coverage  universe,  is  expected  to  outperform  the    relevant  primary  market  index  by  at  least  10%  over  the  next 12 months.        NEUTRAL:    The  industry,  as  defined  by  the  analyst's  coverage  universe,  is  expected  to  perform  in  line  with  the  relevant  primary  market  index  over  the  next  12  months.    UNDERWEIGHT:    The  industry,  as  defined  by  the  analyst's coverage universe, is expected to underperform  the relevant primary market index by 10% over the next 12 months. 

 

REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES                                   page 4 of 4 

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KT•ZMICO Securities Company Limited

st

8 , 15 -17 , 19 , 21 Floor, Liberty Square Bldg., 287 Silom Road, Bangrak, Bangkok 10500 Telephone: (66-2) 695-5000

Phaholyothin Branch

rd

Fax. (66-2) 631-1709

Ploenchit Branch

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2

Sindhorn Branch

3 Floor, Shinnawatra Tower II,

8 Floor, Ton Son Tower,

1291/1 Phaholyothin Road,

900 Ploenchit Road, Lumpini,

Floor, Sindhorn Tower 1, 130-132 Wireless Road, Lumpini,

Phayathai, Bangkok 10400

Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330

Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330

Telephone: (66-2) 686-1500

Telephone: (66-2) 626-6000

Telephone: (66-2) 627-3550

Fax. (66-2) 686-1666

Fax. (66-2) 626-6111

Fax. (66-2) 627-3582, 627-3600

Nakhon Pathom Branch 1156 Petchakasem Road, Sanamchan Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang , Nakhon Pathom Province 73000 Telephone: (034) 271300 Fax: (034) 271300 #100

Chachoengsao Branch

Viphavadee Branch

Phitsanulok Branch

G Floor, Lao Peng Nguan 1 Bldg.,

Krung Thai Bank, Singhawat Branch

333 Soi Cheypuand, Viphavadee-Rangsit Road,

114 Singhawat Road,

Ladyao, Jatujak, Bangkok 10900

Muang, Phitsanulok 65000

Telephone: (66-2) 618-8500

Telephone: 083-490-2873

Fax. (66-2) 618-8569

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Chonburi Branch

Pattaya Branch

108/34-36 Mahajakkrapad Road,

4 Floor, Forum Plaza Bldg.,

382/6-8 Moo 9, T. NongPrue,

T.Namuang, A.Muang,

870/52 Sukhumvit Road, T. Bangplasoy,

A. Banglamung, Cholburi 20260

Chachoengsao 24000

A. Muang, Cholburi 20000

Telephone: (038) 362-420-9

Telephone: (038) 813-088

Telephone: (038) 287-635

Fax. (038) 362-430

Fax. (038) 813-099

Fax. (038) 287-637

Khon Kaen Branch

5th Floor, Charoen Thani Princess Hotel,

Hat Yai Branch

Sriworajak Building Branch

200/301 Juldis Hatyai Plaza Floor 3,

1st – 2nd Floor, Sriworajak Building, 222

260 Srichan Road, T. Naimuang,

Niphat-Uthit 3 Rd,

Luang Road, Pomprab,

A. Muang, Khon Kaen 40000

Hatyai Songkhla 90110

Bankgok 10100

Telephone: (043) 389-171-193

Telephone: (074) 355-530-3

Telephone: (02) 689-3100

Fax. (043) 389-209

Fax: (074) 355-534

Fax. (02) 689-3199

Central World Branch

Chiang Mai Branch

Phuket Branch

999/9 The Offices at Central World,

422/49 Changklan Road, Changklan

22/61-63, Luang Por Wat Chalong Road,

16th Fl., Rama 1 Rd, Pathumwan,

Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang,

Talat Yai, Mueang Phuket,

Bangkok 10330

Chiang Mai 50100

Phuket 83000

Telephone: (66-2) 673-5000,

Telephone: (053) 270-072

Tel. (076) 222-811,(076) 222-683

(66-2) 264-5888 Fax. (66-2) 264-5899

Fax: (053) 272-618

Fax. (076) 222-861

Pak Chong Branch

Cyber Branch @ North Nana

173 175, Mittapap Road,

Krung Thai Bank PCL, 2 Floor, North Nana Branch 35 Sukhumvit Rd.,Klong Toey Nua Subdistrict , Wattana District, Bangkok 10110 Telephone: 083-490-2871

Nong Sarai, Pak Chong, Nakhon Ratchasima 30130 Tel. (044) 279-511 Fax. (044) 279-574

Nakhon Ratchasima Branch

Bangkhae Branch

6th Floor The Mall Group Building Bangkhae 275 Moo 1 Petchkasem Road, North Bangkhae, Bangkhae, Bangkok 10160 Tel. (66-2) 454-9979 Fax. (66-2) 454-9970

624/9 Changphuek Road, . Naimaung, A.Maung, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000 Telephone: (044) 247222 Fax: (044) 247171 Information herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its completeness and accuracy are not guaranteed. All opinions expressed constitute our views on that date and are not intended as an offer or solicitation to sell or buy any securities. Investors should exercise care when making a decision to invest in securities. No one may modify or distribute any part of this report unless written permission is first received from Seamico Securities Plc. If any modifications are made, quotes or references taken from the report and the report date must be clearly mentioned and must not cause misunderstanding or damage to the company.