Active Winter Weather Pattern February 4th-9th
Active Winter Weather Pattern February 4th-9th
Prepared 1230 PM EST – Tuesday, February 4, 2014 Gary Szatkowski NOAA’s National Weather Service Philadelphia/Mt. Holly NJ Forecast office http://www.erh.noaa.gov/phi/
National Weather Service Philadelphia/Mt. Holly
Purpose of Briefing • Briefing #6 • Promote situational awareness for emergency management community & partners • Provide guidance for planning efforts • Briefing applies to Mount Holly service area – shaded in green on map National Weather Service Philadelphia/Mt. Holly
Changes from previous briefing • Significantly greater risk of high impact icing event due to freezing rain. Travel difficulties extremely likely, impacts to infrastructure due to ice on tree limbs & power lines now a possibility.
National Weather Service Philadelphia/Mt. Holly
Executive Summary • A new storm system will affect the region tonight into Wednesday and bring a wide variety of winter weather (rain, icing due to freezing rain, snow). • The primary threat is a widespread icing event. Many locations will see over one tenth inch ice accumulation. Some locations will see ice accumulation around one quarter inch. There is a slight probability of icing amount over one-half inch, which would cause major problems due to ice accumulation on tree limbs & power lines. • Snowfall amounts of 6+ inches are possible as well, in northern sections of the region. • There is another potential winter storm this coming weekend. More details will become available in future briefing packages. • Because of the potential for a major icing event, the next briefing package will be issued later today, by 600 PM Tuesday February 4 th. • Monitor our website for updated information, including new snow total and ice total maps. –
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/phi/ National Weather Service Philadelphia/Mt. Holly
Icing Forecast • Current ice accumulation forecast due to freezing rain. • Any amount of freezing rain can cause slippery roadways & sidewalks, resulting in difficult travel conditions. • Amounts over 0.25” start to cause concerns about damage to tree limbs & power lines due to the weight of the ice. • See the next slide for potential worst case scenario for a major ice storm. National Weather Service Philadelphia/Mt. Holly
Icing – How bad could it get? • Answer – VERY BAD! • Reasonable worst case scenario says amounts could go over 0.75” ice accumulations, which would produce major tree limb & power line damage. • Light blue = 0.75”+ • Darker blue = 0.50” to 0.75” • Darker green = 0.25” to 0.50” National Weather Service Philadelphia/Mt. Holly
Snowfall forecast for upcoming storm • Snowfall potential increases as you go north. 6+ inches are possible in northern NJ, as well as in the Poconos. • Little or no snow in southern portions of the area & closer to the Atlantic Coast. National Weather Service Philadelphia/Mt. Holly
Current warning/advisory status • Winter storm warnings in pink • Advisories in purple & blue. • This is a high impact event affecting a broad area.
National Weather Service Philadelphia/Mt. Holly
Other impacts from the midweek storm Tuesday night-Wednesday • Where the precipitation is mainly rain, roughly one inch of rain is possible. Though not terribly high, combined with snowmelt, there is a slight risk of river flooding. • Also, for those rivers which are ice-clogged, these rainfall amounts may cause ice jam development & flooding. • This is not a storm track which would produce coastal flooding. Coastal flooding threat is very low for this event. National Weather Service Philadelphia/Mt. Holly
Final thoughts • Remember, respect the snow, fear the ice. • As a reminder, another briefing package will be issued by 600 PM today, Tuesday February 4th.
National Weather Service Philadelphia/Mt. Holly
Questions? •
For the latest information, visit our website at: – http://www.erh.noaa.gov/phi
• Our latest briefing package is available from our website at: • http://www.erh.noaa.gov/phi/briefing/packages/current_briefing.pdf • If you wish to be notified when a briefing package is issued, you can follow us on social media where we post the notice. • You can ‘friend’ us on Facebook at: US National Weather Service Philadelphia/Mount Holly • You can follow us on Twitter @NWS_MountHolly • If you have any questions, please contact us. • [email protected] – Office 609-261-6602 x222
• [email protected] – Office 609-261-6602 x223
National Weather Service Philadelphia/Mt. Holly
Prepared 1230 PM EST – Tuesday, February 4, 2014 Gary Szatkowski NOAA’s National Weather Service Philadelphia/Mt. Holly NJ Forecast office http://www.erh.noaa.gov/phi/
National Weather Service Philadelphia/Mt. Holly
Purpose of Briefing • Briefing #6 • Promote situational awareness for emergency management community & partners • Provide guidance for planning efforts • Briefing applies to Mount Holly service area – shaded in green on map National Weather Service Philadelphia/Mt. Holly
Changes from previous briefing • Significantly greater risk of high impact icing event due to freezing rain. Travel difficulties extremely likely, impacts to infrastructure due to ice on tree limbs & power lines now a possibility.
National Weather Service Philadelphia/Mt. Holly
Executive Summary • A new storm system will affect the region tonight into Wednesday and bring a wide variety of winter weather (rain, icing due to freezing rain, snow). • The primary threat is a widespread icing event. Many locations will see over one tenth inch ice accumulation. Some locations will see ice accumulation around one quarter inch. There is a slight probability of icing amount over one-half inch, which would cause major problems due to ice accumulation on tree limbs & power lines. • Snowfall amounts of 6+ inches are possible as well, in northern sections of the region. • There is another potential winter storm this coming weekend. More details will become available in future briefing packages. • Because of the potential for a major icing event, the next briefing package will be issued later today, by 600 PM Tuesday February 4 th. • Monitor our website for updated information, including new snow total and ice total maps. –
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/phi/ National Weather Service Philadelphia/Mt. Holly
Icing Forecast • Current ice accumulation forecast due to freezing rain. • Any amount of freezing rain can cause slippery roadways & sidewalks, resulting in difficult travel conditions. • Amounts over 0.25” start to cause concerns about damage to tree limbs & power lines due to the weight of the ice. • See the next slide for potential worst case scenario for a major ice storm. National Weather Service Philadelphia/Mt. Holly
Icing – How bad could it get? • Answer – VERY BAD! • Reasonable worst case scenario says amounts could go over 0.75” ice accumulations, which would produce major tree limb & power line damage. • Light blue = 0.75”+ • Darker blue = 0.50” to 0.75” • Darker green = 0.25” to 0.50” National Weather Service Philadelphia/Mt. Holly
Snowfall forecast for upcoming storm • Snowfall potential increases as you go north. 6+ inches are possible in northern NJ, as well as in the Poconos. • Little or no snow in southern portions of the area & closer to the Atlantic Coast. National Weather Service Philadelphia/Mt. Holly
Current warning/advisory status • Winter storm warnings in pink • Advisories in purple & blue. • This is a high impact event affecting a broad area.
National Weather Service Philadelphia/Mt. Holly
Other impacts from the midweek storm Tuesday night-Wednesday • Where the precipitation is mainly rain, roughly one inch of rain is possible. Though not terribly high, combined with snowmelt, there is a slight risk of river flooding. • Also, for those rivers which are ice-clogged, these rainfall amounts may cause ice jam development & flooding. • This is not a storm track which would produce coastal flooding. Coastal flooding threat is very low for this event. National Weather Service Philadelphia/Mt. Holly
Final thoughts • Remember, respect the snow, fear the ice. • As a reminder, another briefing package will be issued by 600 PM today, Tuesday February 4th.
National Weather Service Philadelphia/Mt. Holly
Questions? •
For the latest information, visit our website at: – http://www.erh.noaa.gov/phi
• Our latest briefing package is available from our website at: • http://www.erh.noaa.gov/phi/briefing/packages/current_briefing.pdf • If you wish to be notified when a briefing package is issued, you can follow us on social media where we post the notice. • You can ‘friend’ us on Facebook at: US National Weather Service Philadelphia/Mount Holly • You can follow us on Twitter @NWS_MountHolly • If you have any questions, please contact us. • [email protected] – Office 609-261-6602 x222
• [email protected] – Office 609-261-6602 x223
National Weather Service Philadelphia/Mt. Holly
