Active Winter Weather Pattern Week of February 3rd-9th
Active Winter Weather Pattern Week of February 3rd-9th
Prepared 430 PM EST – Sunday, February 2, 2014 Walt Drag NOAA’s National Weather Service Philadelphia/Mt. Holly NJ Forecast office http://www.erh.noaa.gov/phi/ National Weather Service Philadelphia/Mt. Holly
Purpose of Briefing • Briefing #4 for event 1 of 3 • Promote situational awareness for emergency management community & partners • Provide guidance for planning efforts • Briefing applies to Mount Holly service area – shaded in green on map National Weather Service Philadelphia/Mt. Holly
Executive Summary •
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A high impact - relatively short duration significant snow event will occur Monday and cause a very hazardous morning commute! Most of the snow occurs during the morning daylight hours. Warnings and advisories are posted. The heaviest snowfall should occur from southeast Pennsylvania through central New Jersey where 4 to 7 inches will be common. Forecast snow totals diminish to between 2 and 5 inches over northeast PA and northern NJ near and north of Interstate 78. Meanwhile to the south of the warning area…much of the precipitation will fall as periods of heavy rain before ending as snow, with little or no accumulation in far southern Delaware . Snow tapers to flurries and ends from west to east during mid and late afternoon. Snow will be wetter and heavier than we’ve experienced recently. Northeast winds only in the 10 to 15 mph range will prevent the occurrence of much blowing and drifting snow. Temperatures will drop into the teens and low 20s Monday night. Any standing water will freeze. A stronger storm system will affect the region midweek and bring a wide variety of winter weather (rain, icing due to freezing rain, snow). This has the potential to be a significant icing event northwest of the Interstate 95 corridor. More details will be available in the Monday afternoon briefing. Rainfall may be significant enough that, when combined with snow melt, would result in spotty river flooding. There may also be ice jam flooding due to the combination of rain and snowmelt forcing ice-clogged rivers to lift and move the ice. A variety of potential significant impacts are ahead but at this time are secondary to the Monday event. There is another potential winter storm next weekend which may come in two parts between late Friday Feb 7th into Sunday night the 9th. No further details are available at this time. NO ONE CAN FORECAST SNOW TOTALS 7 DAYS IN ADVANCE WITH CONSISTENT DEPENDABLY RELIABLE ACCURACY. The next briefing package will be issued Monday February 3rd and will focus on the mid week and end of week storms.
Monitor our website for updated information. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/phi/ National Weather Service Philadelphia/Mt. Holly
Forecast Snowfall Totals for Monday Most of the snow between 6 AM and 2 PM
National Weather Service Philadelphia/Mt. Holly
Winter weather event Tuesday night into Wednesday • Rainfall map is on the left. Rainfall amounts up to one inch are possible. • Though not terribly high, combined with snowmelt, there is a risk of river flooding. • Also, for those rivers which are iceclogged, these rainfall amounts may cause ice jam development & flooding
National Weather Service Philadelphia/Mt. Holly
Impacts from the midweek storm Tuesday night-Wednesday • There is the potential for this to turn into a significant icing event due to freezing rain. This would produce very slippery roadways/sidewalks, difficult travel conditions, and the potential for damage to tree limbs & power lines. Again, this is far in advance of the event, but the pattern is favorable for a potentially significant icing event in eastern Pa and northwest NJ. • Snowfall amounts in excess of 4 inches, if precipitation is snow, should be restricted to near and north of Interstate 80. Areas which begin as snow Tuesday night would transition to rain, except to freezing rain northwest of Interstate 95 by daybreak Wednesday. • Much of Delaware and Maryland’s eastern shore south of Interstate 95 should be predominantly rain. • This is not a storm track which would produce coastal flooding. Coastal flooding threat is very low for this event.
National Weather Service Philadelphia/Mt. Holly
Questions? •
For the latest information, visit our website at: – http://www.erh.noaa.gov/phi
• Our latest briefing package is available from our website at: • http://www.erh.noaa.gov/phi/briefing/packages/current_briefing.pdf • If you wish to be notified when a briefing package is issued, you can follow us on social media where we post the notice. • You can ‘friend’ us on Facebook at: US National Weather Service Philadelphia/Mount Holly • You can follow us on Twitter @NWS_MountHolly • If you have any questions, please contact us. • [email protected] – Office 609-261-6602 x222
• [email protected] – Office 609-261-6602 x223 National Weather Service Philadelphia/Mt. Holly
Prepared 430 PM EST – Sunday, February 2, 2014 Walt Drag NOAA’s National Weather Service Philadelphia/Mt. Holly NJ Forecast office http://www.erh.noaa.gov/phi/ National Weather Service Philadelphia/Mt. Holly
Purpose of Briefing • Briefing #4 for event 1 of 3 • Promote situational awareness for emergency management community & partners • Provide guidance for planning efforts • Briefing applies to Mount Holly service area – shaded in green on map National Weather Service Philadelphia/Mt. Holly
Executive Summary •
•
• •
• •
•
•
•
A high impact - relatively short duration significant snow event will occur Monday and cause a very hazardous morning commute! Most of the snow occurs during the morning daylight hours. Warnings and advisories are posted. The heaviest snowfall should occur from southeast Pennsylvania through central New Jersey where 4 to 7 inches will be common. Forecast snow totals diminish to between 2 and 5 inches over northeast PA and northern NJ near and north of Interstate 78. Meanwhile to the south of the warning area…much of the precipitation will fall as periods of heavy rain before ending as snow, with little or no accumulation in far southern Delaware . Snow tapers to flurries and ends from west to east during mid and late afternoon. Snow will be wetter and heavier than we’ve experienced recently. Northeast winds only in the 10 to 15 mph range will prevent the occurrence of much blowing and drifting snow. Temperatures will drop into the teens and low 20s Monday night. Any standing water will freeze. A stronger storm system will affect the region midweek and bring a wide variety of winter weather (rain, icing due to freezing rain, snow). This has the potential to be a significant icing event northwest of the Interstate 95 corridor. More details will be available in the Monday afternoon briefing. Rainfall may be significant enough that, when combined with snow melt, would result in spotty river flooding. There may also be ice jam flooding due to the combination of rain and snowmelt forcing ice-clogged rivers to lift and move the ice. A variety of potential significant impacts are ahead but at this time are secondary to the Monday event. There is another potential winter storm next weekend which may come in two parts between late Friday Feb 7th into Sunday night the 9th. No further details are available at this time. NO ONE CAN FORECAST SNOW TOTALS 7 DAYS IN ADVANCE WITH CONSISTENT DEPENDABLY RELIABLE ACCURACY. The next briefing package will be issued Monday February 3rd and will focus on the mid week and end of week storms.
Monitor our website for updated information. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/phi/ National Weather Service Philadelphia/Mt. Holly
Forecast Snowfall Totals for Monday Most of the snow between 6 AM and 2 PM
National Weather Service Philadelphia/Mt. Holly
Winter weather event Tuesday night into Wednesday • Rainfall map is on the left. Rainfall amounts up to one inch are possible. • Though not terribly high, combined with snowmelt, there is a risk of river flooding. • Also, for those rivers which are iceclogged, these rainfall amounts may cause ice jam development & flooding
National Weather Service Philadelphia/Mt. Holly
Impacts from the midweek storm Tuesday night-Wednesday • There is the potential for this to turn into a significant icing event due to freezing rain. This would produce very slippery roadways/sidewalks, difficult travel conditions, and the potential for damage to tree limbs & power lines. Again, this is far in advance of the event, but the pattern is favorable for a potentially significant icing event in eastern Pa and northwest NJ. • Snowfall amounts in excess of 4 inches, if precipitation is snow, should be restricted to near and north of Interstate 80. Areas which begin as snow Tuesday night would transition to rain, except to freezing rain northwest of Interstate 95 by daybreak Wednesday. • Much of Delaware and Maryland’s eastern shore south of Interstate 95 should be predominantly rain. • This is not a storm track which would produce coastal flooding. Coastal flooding threat is very low for this event.
National Weather Service Philadelphia/Mt. Holly
Questions? •
For the latest information, visit our website at: – http://www.erh.noaa.gov/phi
• Our latest briefing package is available from our website at: • http://www.erh.noaa.gov/phi/briefing/packages/current_briefing.pdf • If you wish to be notified when a briefing package is issued, you can follow us on social media where we post the notice. • You can ‘friend’ us on Facebook at: US National Weather Service Philadelphia/Mount Holly • You can follow us on Twitter @NWS_MountHolly • If you have any questions, please contact us. • [email protected] – Office 609-261-6602 x222
• [email protected] – Office 609-261-6602 x223 National Weather Service Philadelphia/Mt. Holly
