Alabama New Construction Report – August 2015 - Home Builders ...

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Alabama New Construction Report – August 2015 Monthly Indicators Permits August permits have increased 4.3 percent from last month. Figures also show an increase of 8.1 percent from August '14.

Starts August starts have increased 0.7 percent from July '15. August '15 figures show an increase of 1.9 percent from August ’14.

Recent Figures

Trends

Current Month vs. Prior Month vs. Last Year (YoY) vs. 3-Yr Avg

August July August August

2015 2015 2014 '12-'14

776 744 718 754

4.3% 8.1% 2.9%

Year-to-Date vs. Last Year (YoY)

August August

2015 2014

5,948 5,790

2.7%

Current Month vs. Prior Month vs. Last Year (YoY) vs. 3-Yr Avg

August July August August

2015 2015 2014 '12-'14

766 761 752 740

0.7% 1.9% 3.6%

Year to Date vs.Prior Year

August August

2015 2014

5,877 5,655

3.9%

* Alabama permits increased 8.1% compared to Augest 2014. In comparison, south region permits rose 7.3% & US permits were up 11.3%. * 2014 Recap: Permits in Alabama slipped .8% YOY from 2013. In comparison, south region permits were up 3.4% & US permits were up 1.3%. * Alabama housing starts slip 1.9% compared to August 2014. In concert, south region starts increased 22.2% while US starts improved 13.8%. * 2014 Recap: Starts in Alabama slipped 2% YOY from 2013. In comparison, South Region Starts were up 6% & US Starts up 2.9%.

Commentary State Demand: New home sales totaling 392 units in August increased 37.5 percent from the same period last year. As anticipated taking into seasonal buying patterns, August new homes sales were .5 percent above the prior month. Average days on market in August of 102 represent a 19.2% decrease from last August which is encouraging news. Supply: Months of new home supply in August was 4.4 months; compared to 6.0 months in August 2014 (favorably down 26.7%) and 4.5 months in July 2015 (down 2.2%). Statewide new construction inventory is approximately 1.0% above last August and 1.3% below last month. According to the Alabama Dept. of Industrial Relations, statewide related residential construction employment in August increased 4.9% (+3,200 jobs) to 68,200 from the same period last year but unchanged from last month. This represents the 14th consecutive month of positive YOY comparisons associated with construction employment. National Perspective from National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) From David Crowe, NAHB chief economist: “Home building's share of the economy continues to grow. With the release of the final estimates of second-quarter 2015 GDP growth (revised up to a 3.9% growth rate), housing’s share of gross domestic product declined slightly to 15.31%. However, the home building and remodeling component – residential fixed investment – expanded for the third consecutive quarter to 3.21% of the economy."

Local 12 out of the 27 associations (44% - up from 41% in July'15) reported building permit gains from the prior month while 12 associations (44% - same as in July'15) experienced gains in housing starts. Eighteen associations (67% - same as last month) experienced an increase from their August 2014 monthly housing starts. The top five YTD markets (with minimum of 120 starts) for housing starts through August by positive percentage change from the same period a year ago: Marshall County (44%), Lee County (25%), Greater Montgomery (22%), Dothan/Wiregrass Area (23%) and Baldwin County (14%),. Here's a look at YTD housing start growth rates from select markets from across the state: Birmingham (-8%), Huntsville (.3%), Shoals Area (-.1%), Tuscaloosa (-7%), Cullman (-8%) and Mobile (-1%). © 2015 ACRE All Rights Reserved

NOTE: This representation is based in whole or in part on data supplied by the reporting municipalities/boards/associations. ACRE does not guarantee and is in no way responsible for its accuracy.

©ACRE 2015

ACRE Corporate Cabinet acre.culverhouse.ua.edu

New Construction Report - August 2015 NEW SINGLE FAMILY BUILDING PERMIT STATISTIC TOTALS Current Month

Last Month

August-15

July-15

% Difference

Last Year

% Difference

August-14

% Difference

YTD

YTD

August-15

August-14

Alabama State Total South Total*

776

744

4.3%

718

8.1%

5,948

5,790

2.7%

32,400

33,800

-4.1%

30,200

7.3%

254,800

231,800

9.9%

United States Total*

61,200

64,700

-5.4%

55,000

11.3%

465,100

427,600

8.8%

*Source Data: U.S. Census Bureau

NEW SINGLE FAMILY BUILDING PERMITS BY AREA Association

Current Month

Last Month

August-15

July-15

% Difference

Last Year

% Difference

August-14

YTD

YTD

August-15

August-14

% Difference

Athens/Limestone **

19

30

-36.7%

17

11.8%

136

128

6.3%

Baldwin County **

99

139

-28.8%

114

-13.2%

913

820

11.3%

Blount County

0

0

N/A

0

N/A

0

0

N/A

Chilton County

6

0

N/A

1

500.0%

16

5

220.0%

Cullman County

2

5

-60.0%

7

-71.4%

29

36

-19.4%

Dekalb County **

4

8

-50.0%

5

-20.0%

30

16

87.5%

Enterprise

4

4

0.0%

4

0.0%

44

39

12.8%

165

101

63.4%

125

32.0%

1,042

1,145

-9.0%

0

0

N/A

3

-100.0%

17

22

-22.7% 22.5%

Greater Birmingham ** Greater Calhoun County ** Greater Gadsden **

9

5

80.0%

4

125.0%

49

40

Greater Montgomery

58

39

48.7%

42

38.1%

358

289

23.9%

Greater Morgan County **

10

19

-47.4%

29

-65.5%

160

210

-23.8%

Dothan & Wiregrass Area

21

29

-27.6%

20

5.0%

184

147

25.2%

Metropolitan Mobile**

36

36

0.0%

32

12.5%

297

305

-2.6%

Tuscaloosa**

56

43

30.2%

54

3.7%

437

469

-6.8%

Huntsville/Madison **

159

143

11.2%

129

23.3%

1,127

1,130

-0.3%

Jackson County **

5

1

400.0%

7

-28.6%

19

18

5.6%

Lee County

67

70

-4.3%

45

48.9%

603

491

22.8%

Macon County

0

0

N/A

0

N/A

1

0

N/A

Marshall County **

18

20

-10.0%

24

-25.0%

171

114

50.0%

Muscle Shoals **

13

10

30.0%

15

-13.3%

101

102

-1.0%

Northwest Alabama

0

0

N/A

0

N/A

3

3

0.0%

Phenix City

10

11

-9.1%

14

-28.6%

79

108

-26.9%

South Alabama

2

10

-80.0%

1

100.0%

22

10

120.0%

St. Clair County **

12

18

-33.3%

24

-50.0%

95

130

-26.9%

Tallapoosa County

1

3

-66.7%

2

-50.0%

8

11

-27.3%

Walker County

0

0

N/A

0

N/A

7

2

250.0%

**Source Partner: www.marketgraphicsalabama.com Process: Every month data is collected from municipalities all around the state, in particular the municipalities’ building/inspections department. We also limited our data collection to municipalities with a population of 2500 or greater. By gathering the number of single family new construction permits that are issued each month it allows observation of growth or decline in the new housing market. *NOTE: Permit counts may be subject to slight change month over month due to updated permit reports from certain municpalities in previous months

©ACRE 2015

ACRE Corporate Cabinet acre.culverhouse.ua.edu

PROJECTED HOUSING STARTS TOTALS Current Month

Last Month

August-15

July-15

Alabama State Total South Total United States Total

% Difference

Last Year

% Difference

August-14

% Difference

YTD

YTD

August-15

August-14

766

761

0.7%

752

1.9%

5,877

5,655

3.9%

38,000

37,000

2.7%

31,100

22.2%

263,700

232,800

13.3%

66,900

74,100

-9.7%

58,800

13.8%

482,100

422,653

14.1%

PROJECTED HOUSING STARTS BY LOCAL MARKETS Association

Current Month

Last Month

August-15

July-15

% Difference

Last Year

% Difference

August-14

YTD

YTD

August-15

August-14

% Difference

Athens/Limestone

23

22

5.4%

20

16.3%

132

125

5.0%

Baldwin County

117

127

-8.0%

120

-2.0%

921

810

13.7%

Blount County

1

1

-15.9%

0

N/A

2

0

N/A

Chilton County

3

1

251.8%

1

421.4%

13

5

158.8%

Cullman County

4

4

-6.3%

5

-30.1%

30

33

-7.5%

Dekalb County

5

6

-12.3%

5

7.2%

26

16

65.3%

Enterprise Greater Birmingham

5

7

-30.2%

3

33.7%

44

42

6.3%

135

121

12.0%

134

0.8%

1,023

1,118

-8.5%

Greater Calhoun County

1

2

-25.0%

3

-55.0%

19

18

6.7%

Greater Gadsden

7

6

16.6%

5

54.4%

45

38

19.6%

Greater Montgomery

48

44

8.7%

39

23.9%

346

283

22.2%

Greater Morgan County

16

20

-21.2%

29

-44.6%

167

194

-14.2%

Dothan & Wiregrass Area

24

25

-5.5%

19

24.9%

177

144

22.8%

Metropolitan Mobile

37

37

-0.5%

36

0.6%

309

313

-1.5%

Tuscaloosa

53

52

1.8%

57

-7.0%

431

466

-7.5%

Huntsville/Madison

152

144

5.7%

141

8.3%

1,091

1,088

0.3%

Jackson County

3

2

89.6%

4

-21.3%

19

18

6.2%

Lee County

70

73

-5.0%

59

17.5%

593

476

24.5%

Macon County

0

0

N/A

0

N/A

1

0

N/A

Marshall County

20

23

-13.5%

23

-11.3%

166

115

44.1%

Muscle Shoals

12

13

-2.3%

12

3.1%

101

101

-0.1%

Northwest Alabama

0

1

-72.7%

0

66.7%

4

3

31.4%

Phenix City

10

9

9.4%

13

-23.5%

79

102

-22.9%

South Alabama

5

5

1.0%

2

208.9%

23

10

125.3%

St. Clair County

14

15

-10.1%

23

-39.4%

101

124

-18.3%

Tallapoosa County

2

1

14.6%

1

31.0%

9

11

-19.1%

Walker County

0

1

-40.0%

0

1000.0%

7

3

148.9%

*Starts data not available due to that is it a calculated statistic from previous months data that is not available.

Some variance in totals due to decimal extension.

© 2015 ACRE All Rights Reserved NOTE : This representation is based in whole or in part on data supplied by the local municipality's building department. Alabama Center for Real Estate - University of Alabama does not guarantee and is in no way responsible for its accuracy. Defintion: Housing starts are a derived value using a percentage distribution based on the particular region in the United States multiplied times the number of building permits issued in that particular month. Calculation: The distribution for the South Region is as follows: Same Month as Authorization = 44%; 1 Month Prior = 37%; 2 Months Prior = 9%; 3 Months Prior = 3%; 4 Months or more = 7%

©ACRE 2015

ACRE Corporate Cabinet acre.culverhouse.ua.edu

Metro Market New Construction Report* (The 5 Metro Alabama Markets Represent

+/- 70%

of the State's New Construction Transactions)

Metro Markets Combined

Total New Construction Sold Number of Units on Market Median Selling Price Average Selling Price Average Days on Market

Current Month

Last Month

August-15

July-15

% Difference

Last Year

% Difference

August-14

YTD August-14

392

390

0.5%

285

37.5%

1,737

1,760

-1.3%

1,720

1.0%

2.0%

$

228,614

8.0%

$

244,085

$

239,857

11.3%

$

261,494

126

-19.2%

$

246,815

$

241,917

$

267,078

$

256,905

4.0%

110

-7.7%

102

% Difference

YTD August-15

2,620

2,436

7.6%

$

231,311

5.5%

$

248,229

N/A

N/A

126

N/A

150

5.3% -16.0%

Total New Construction Sold

Birmingham Huntsville Mobile Montgomery Tuscaloosa

% Difference

Last Year

% Difference

% Difference

Current Month

Last Month

August-15

July-15

149

132

12.9%

128

16.4%

1,019

950

7.3%

142

123

15.4%

65

118.5%

839

759

10.5%

26

31

-16.1%

28

-7.1%

221

212

4.2%

57

74

-23.0%

48

18.8%

384

373

2.9%

18

30

-40.0%

16

12.5%

157

142

10.6%

Current Month

Last Month

August-15

July-15

832

829

0.4%

704

18.2%

5.6

468

457

2.4%

461

1.5%

3.3

127

137

-7.3%

158

-19.6%

4.9

207

200

3.5%

235

-11.9%

3.6

103

137

-24.8%

162

-36.4%

5.7

Current Month

Last Month

August-15

July-15

August-14

YTD

YTD

August-15

August-14

Number of Units on Market

Birmingham Huntsville Mobile Montgomery Tuscaloosa

% Difference

Last Year

% Difference

I/S

August-14

Ratio

Median Selling Price

Birmingham Huntsville Mobile Montgomery Tuscaloosa

% Difference

Last Year

% Difference

August-14

YTD

YTD

August-15

August-14

% Difference

$

282,100

$

251,074

12.4%

$

269,869

4.5%

$

269,411

$

262,007

2.8%

$

265,175

$

253,830

4.5%

$

244,900

8.3%

$

248,742

$

251,327

-1.0%

$

216,802

$

235,950

-8.1%

$

192,650

12.5%

$

217,922

$

186,179

17.0%

$

264,900

$

254,283

4.2%

$

219,900

20.5%

$

257,054

$

237,076

8.4%

$

205,098

$

214,450

-4.4%

$

215,750

-4.9%

$

227,295

$

219,965

3.3%

Average Selling Price

Birmingham Huntsville Mobile Montgomery Tuscaloosa

Current Month

Last Month

August-15

July-15

% Difference

Last Year

% Difference

August-14

YTD

YTD

August-15

August-14

% Difference

$

307,926

$

294,405

4.6%

$

286,846

7.3%

$

306,107

$

289,125

5.9%

$

277,292

$

277,292

0.0%

$

256,940

7.9%

$

266,375

$

264,579

0.7%

$

225,206

$

223,454

0.8%

$

199,041

13.1%

$

221,004

$

201,250

9.8%

$

274,119

$

254,662

7.6%

$

230,557

18.9%

$

260,255

$

242,180

7.5%

$

250,845

$

234,713

6.9%

$

225,901

11.0%

$

253,729

$

244,009

4.0%

Average Days on Market

Birmingham Huntsville Mobile Montgomery Tuscaloosa

% Difference

Current Month

Last Month

August-15

July-15

Last Year

Unavailable

Unavailable

N/A

Unavailable

42

60

-30.0%

133

% Difference

YTD

YTD

August-15

August-14

N/A

Unavailable

Unavailable

N/A

-68.4%

71

132

-46.0%

138

148

-6.8%

154

-10.4%

151

194

-22.1%

93

116

-19.8%

121

-23.1%

135

140

-3.4%

134

117

14.5%

96

39.6%

146

134

9.1%

* Source: MLS

©ACRE 2015

% Difference

August-14

ACRE Corporate Cabinet acre.culverhouse.ua.edu

Alabama New Construction Statistics 700

3,000 2,800

600

2,600 2,400 2,200

400

2,000 300

1,800

Inventory

Sales

500

1,600

200

1,400

100

1,200

0

1,000

Total Sold

Inventory

Alabama New Single Family Building Permits Issued 1,000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300

Year-Over-Year Change for Building Permits Aug

Sept

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% -10.0% -20.0% Alabama

©ACRE 2015

U.S.

ACRE Corporate Cabinet acre.culverhouse.ua.edu

Apr

May

June

July

Aug