Alabama New Construction Report – August 2015 Monthly Indicators Permits August permits have increased 4.3 percent from last month. Figures also show an increase of 8.1 percent from August '14.
Starts August starts have increased 0.7 percent from July '15. August '15 figures show an increase of 1.9 percent from August ’14.
Recent Figures
Trends
Current Month vs. Prior Month vs. Last Year (YoY) vs. 3-Yr Avg
August July August August
2015 2015 2014 '12-'14
776 744 718 754
4.3% 8.1% 2.9%
Year-to-Date vs. Last Year (YoY)
August August
2015 2014
5,948 5,790
2.7%
Current Month vs. Prior Month vs. Last Year (YoY) vs. 3-Yr Avg
August July August August
2015 2015 2014 '12-'14
766 761 752 740
0.7% 1.9% 3.6%
Year to Date vs.Prior Year
August August
2015 2014
5,877 5,655
3.9%
* Alabama permits increased 8.1% compared to Augest 2014. In comparison, south region permits rose 7.3% & US permits were up 11.3%. * 2014 Recap: Permits in Alabama slipped .8% YOY from 2013. In comparison, south region permits were up 3.4% & US permits were up 1.3%. * Alabama housing starts slip 1.9% compared to August 2014. In concert, south region starts increased 22.2% while US starts improved 13.8%. * 2014 Recap: Starts in Alabama slipped 2% YOY from 2013. In comparison, South Region Starts were up 6% & US Starts up 2.9%.
Commentary State Demand: New home sales totaling 392 units in August increased 37.5 percent from the same period last year. As anticipated taking into seasonal buying patterns, August new homes sales were .5 percent above the prior month. Average days on market in August of 102 represent a 19.2% decrease from last August which is encouraging news. Supply: Months of new home supply in August was 4.4 months; compared to 6.0 months in August 2014 (favorably down 26.7%) and 4.5 months in July 2015 (down 2.2%). Statewide new construction inventory is approximately 1.0% above last August and 1.3% below last month. According to the Alabama Dept. of Industrial Relations, statewide related residential construction employment in August increased 4.9% (+3,200 jobs) to 68,200 from the same period last year but unchanged from last month. This represents the 14th consecutive month of positive YOY comparisons associated with construction employment. National Perspective from National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) From David Crowe, NAHB chief economist: “Home building's share of the economy continues to grow. With the release of the final estimates of second-quarter 2015 GDP growth (revised up to a 3.9% growth rate), housing’s share of gross domestic product declined slightly to 15.31%. However, the home building and remodeling component – residential fixed investment – expanded for the third consecutive quarter to 3.21% of the economy."
Local 12 out of the 27 associations (44% - up from 41% in July'15) reported building permit gains from the prior month while 12 associations (44% - same as in July'15) experienced gains in housing starts. Eighteen associations (67% - same as last month) experienced an increase from their August 2014 monthly housing starts. The top five YTD markets (with minimum of 120 starts) for housing starts through August by positive percentage change from the same period a year ago: Marshall County (44%), Lee County (25%), Greater Montgomery (22%), Dothan/Wiregrass Area (23%) and Baldwin County (14%),. Here's a look at YTD housing start growth rates from select markets from across the state: Birmingham (-8%), Huntsville (.3%), Shoals Area (-.1%), Tuscaloosa (-7%), Cullman (-8%) and Mobile (-1%). © 2015 ACRE All Rights Reserved
NOTE: This representation is based in whole or in part on data supplied by the reporting municipalities/boards/associations. ACRE does not guarantee and is in no way responsible for its accuracy.
©ACRE 2015
ACRE Corporate Cabinet acre.culverhouse.ua.edu
New Construction Report - August 2015 NEW SINGLE FAMILY BUILDING PERMIT STATISTIC TOTALS Current Month
Last Month
August-15
July-15
% Difference
Last Year
% Difference
August-14
% Difference
YTD
YTD
August-15
August-14
Alabama State Total South Total*
776
744
4.3%
718
8.1%
5,948
5,790
2.7%
32,400
33,800
-4.1%
30,200
7.3%
254,800
231,800
9.9%
United States Total*
61,200
64,700
-5.4%
55,000
11.3%
465,100
427,600
8.8%
*Source Data: U.S. Census Bureau
NEW SINGLE FAMILY BUILDING PERMITS BY AREA Association
Current Month
Last Month
August-15
July-15
% Difference
Last Year
% Difference
August-14
YTD
YTD
August-15
August-14
% Difference
Athens/Limestone **
19
30
-36.7%
17
11.8%
136
128
6.3%
Baldwin County **
99
139
-28.8%
114
-13.2%
913
820
11.3%
Blount County
0
0
N/A
0
N/A
0
0
N/A
Chilton County
6
0
N/A
1
500.0%
16
5
220.0%
Cullman County
2
5
-60.0%
7
-71.4%
29
36
-19.4%
Dekalb County **
4
8
-50.0%
5
-20.0%
30
16
87.5%
Enterprise
4
4
0.0%
4
0.0%
44
39
12.8%
165
101
63.4%
125
32.0%
1,042
1,145
-9.0%
0
0
N/A
3
-100.0%
17
22
-22.7% 22.5%
Greater Birmingham ** Greater Calhoun County ** Greater Gadsden **
9
5
80.0%
4
125.0%
49
40
Greater Montgomery
58
39
48.7%
42
38.1%
358
289
23.9%
Greater Morgan County **
10
19
-47.4%
29
-65.5%
160
210
-23.8%
Dothan & Wiregrass Area
21
29
-27.6%
20
5.0%
184
147
25.2%
Metropolitan Mobile**
36
36
0.0%
32
12.5%
297
305
-2.6%
Tuscaloosa**
56
43
30.2%
54
3.7%
437
469
-6.8%
Huntsville/Madison **
159
143
11.2%
129
23.3%
1,127
1,130
-0.3%
Jackson County **
5
1
400.0%
7
-28.6%
19
18
5.6%
Lee County
67
70
-4.3%
45
48.9%
603
491
22.8%
Macon County
0
0
N/A
0
N/A
1
0
N/A
Marshall County **
18
20
-10.0%
24
-25.0%
171
114
50.0%
Muscle Shoals **
13
10
30.0%
15
-13.3%
101
102
-1.0%
Northwest Alabama
0
0
N/A
0
N/A
3
3
0.0%
Phenix City
10
11
-9.1%
14
-28.6%
79
108
-26.9%
South Alabama
2
10
-80.0%
1
100.0%
22
10
120.0%
St. Clair County **
12
18
-33.3%
24
-50.0%
95
130
-26.9%
Tallapoosa County
1
3
-66.7%
2
-50.0%
8
11
-27.3%
Walker County
0
0
N/A
0
N/A
7
2
250.0%
**Source Partner: www.marketgraphicsalabama.com Process: Every month data is collected from municipalities all around the state, in particular the municipalities’ building/inspections department. We also limited our data collection to municipalities with a population of 2500 or greater. By gathering the number of single family new construction permits that are issued each month it allows observation of growth or decline in the new housing market. *NOTE: Permit counts may be subject to slight change month over month due to updated permit reports from certain municpalities in previous months
©ACRE 2015
ACRE Corporate Cabinet acre.culverhouse.ua.edu
PROJECTED HOUSING STARTS TOTALS Current Month
Last Month
August-15
July-15
Alabama State Total South Total United States Total
% Difference
Last Year
% Difference
August-14
% Difference
YTD
YTD
August-15
August-14
766
761
0.7%
752
1.9%
5,877
5,655
3.9%
38,000
37,000
2.7%
31,100
22.2%
263,700
232,800
13.3%
66,900
74,100
-9.7%
58,800
13.8%
482,100
422,653
14.1%
PROJECTED HOUSING STARTS BY LOCAL MARKETS Association
Current Month
Last Month
August-15
July-15
% Difference
Last Year
% Difference
August-14
YTD
YTD
August-15
August-14
% Difference
Athens/Limestone
23
22
5.4%
20
16.3%
132
125
5.0%
Baldwin County
117
127
-8.0%
120
-2.0%
921
810
13.7%
Blount County
1
1
-15.9%
0
N/A
2
0
N/A
Chilton County
3
1
251.8%
1
421.4%
13
5
158.8%
Cullman County
4
4
-6.3%
5
-30.1%
30
33
-7.5%
Dekalb County
5
6
-12.3%
5
7.2%
26
16
65.3%
Enterprise Greater Birmingham
5
7
-30.2%
3
33.7%
44
42
6.3%
135
121
12.0%
134
0.8%
1,023
1,118
-8.5%
Greater Calhoun County
1
2
-25.0%
3
-55.0%
19
18
6.7%
Greater Gadsden
7
6
16.6%
5
54.4%
45
38
19.6%
Greater Montgomery
48
44
8.7%
39
23.9%
346
283
22.2%
Greater Morgan County
16
20
-21.2%
29
-44.6%
167
194
-14.2%
Dothan & Wiregrass Area
24
25
-5.5%
19
24.9%
177
144
22.8%
Metropolitan Mobile
37
37
-0.5%
36
0.6%
309
313
-1.5%
Tuscaloosa
53
52
1.8%
57
-7.0%
431
466
-7.5%
Huntsville/Madison
152
144
5.7%
141
8.3%
1,091
1,088
0.3%
Jackson County
3
2
89.6%
4
-21.3%
19
18
6.2%
Lee County
70
73
-5.0%
59
17.5%
593
476
24.5%
Macon County
0
0
N/A
0
N/A
1
0
N/A
Marshall County
20
23
-13.5%
23
-11.3%
166
115
44.1%
Muscle Shoals
12
13
-2.3%
12
3.1%
101
101
-0.1%
Northwest Alabama
0
1
-72.7%
0
66.7%
4
3
31.4%
Phenix City
10
9
9.4%
13
-23.5%
79
102
-22.9%
South Alabama
5
5
1.0%
2
208.9%
23
10
125.3%
St. Clair County
14
15
-10.1%
23
-39.4%
101
124
-18.3%
Tallapoosa County
2
1
14.6%
1
31.0%
9
11
-19.1%
Walker County
0
1
-40.0%
0
1000.0%
7
3
148.9%
*Starts data not available due to that is it a calculated statistic from previous months data that is not available.
Some variance in totals due to decimal extension.
© 2015 ACRE All Rights Reserved NOTE : This representation is based in whole or in part on data supplied by the local municipality's building department. Alabama Center for Real Estate - University of Alabama does not guarantee and is in no way responsible for its accuracy. Defintion: Housing starts are a derived value using a percentage distribution based on the particular region in the United States multiplied times the number of building permits issued in that particular month. Calculation: The distribution for the South Region is as follows: Same Month as Authorization = 44%; 1 Month Prior = 37%; 2 Months Prior = 9%; 3 Months Prior = 3%; 4 Months or more = 7%
©ACRE 2015
ACRE Corporate Cabinet acre.culverhouse.ua.edu
Metro Market New Construction Report* (The 5 Metro Alabama Markets Represent
+/- 70%
of the State's New Construction Transactions)
Metro Markets Combined
Total New Construction Sold Number of Units on Market Median Selling Price Average Selling Price Average Days on Market
Current Month
Last Month
August-15
July-15
% Difference
Last Year
% Difference
August-14
YTD August-14
392
390
0.5%
285
37.5%
1,737
1,760
-1.3%
1,720
1.0%
2.0%
$
228,614
8.0%
$
244,085
$
239,857
11.3%
$
261,494
126
-19.2%
$
246,815
$
241,917
$
267,078
$
256,905
4.0%
110
-7.7%
102
% Difference
YTD August-15
2,620
2,436
7.6%
$
231,311
5.5%
$
248,229
N/A
N/A
126
N/A
150
5.3% -16.0%
Total New Construction Sold
Birmingham Huntsville Mobile Montgomery Tuscaloosa
% Difference
Last Year
% Difference
% Difference
Current Month
Last Month
August-15
July-15
149
132
12.9%
128
16.4%
1,019
950
7.3%
142
123
15.4%
65
118.5%
839
759
10.5%
26
31
-16.1%
28
-7.1%
221
212
4.2%
57
74
-23.0%
48
18.8%
384
373
2.9%
18
30
-40.0%
16
12.5%
157
142
10.6%
Current Month
Last Month
August-15
July-15
832
829
0.4%
704
18.2%
5.6
468
457
2.4%
461
1.5%
3.3
127
137
-7.3%
158
-19.6%
4.9
207
200
3.5%
235
-11.9%
3.6
103
137
-24.8%
162
-36.4%
5.7
Current Month
Last Month
August-15
July-15
August-14
YTD
YTD
August-15
August-14
Number of Units on Market
Birmingham Huntsville Mobile Montgomery Tuscaloosa
% Difference
Last Year
% Difference
I/S
August-14
Ratio
Median Selling Price
Birmingham Huntsville Mobile Montgomery Tuscaloosa
% Difference
Last Year
% Difference
August-14
YTD
YTD
August-15
August-14
% Difference
$
282,100
$
251,074
12.4%
$
269,869
4.5%
$
269,411
$
262,007
2.8%
$
265,175
$
253,830
4.5%
$
244,900
8.3%
$
248,742
$
251,327
-1.0%
$
216,802
$
235,950
-8.1%
$
192,650
12.5%
$
217,922
$
186,179
17.0%
$
264,900
$
254,283
4.2%
$
219,900
20.5%
$
257,054
$
237,076
8.4%
$
205,098
$
214,450
-4.4%
$
215,750
-4.9%
$
227,295
$
219,965
3.3%
Average Selling Price
Birmingham Huntsville Mobile Montgomery Tuscaloosa
Current Month
Last Month
August-15
July-15
% Difference
Last Year
% Difference
August-14
YTD
YTD
August-15
August-14
% Difference
$
307,926
$
294,405
4.6%
$
286,846
7.3%
$
306,107
$
289,125
5.9%
$
277,292
$
277,292
0.0%
$
256,940
7.9%
$
266,375
$
264,579
0.7%
$
225,206
$
223,454
0.8%
$
199,041
13.1%
$
221,004
$
201,250
9.8%
$
274,119
$
254,662
7.6%
$
230,557
18.9%
$
260,255
$
242,180
7.5%
$
250,845
$
234,713
6.9%
$
225,901
11.0%
$
253,729
$
244,009
4.0%
Average Days on Market
Birmingham Huntsville Mobile Montgomery Tuscaloosa
% Difference
Current Month
Last Month
August-15
July-15
Last Year
Unavailable
Unavailable
N/A
Unavailable
42
60
-30.0%
133
% Difference
YTD
YTD
August-15
August-14
N/A
Unavailable
Unavailable
N/A
-68.4%
71
132
-46.0%
138
148
-6.8%
154
-10.4%
151
194
-22.1%
93
116
-19.8%
121
-23.1%
135
140
-3.4%
134
117
14.5%
96
39.6%
146
134
9.1%
* Source: MLS
©ACRE 2015
% Difference
August-14
ACRE Corporate Cabinet acre.culverhouse.ua.edu
Alabama New Construction Statistics 700
3,000 2,800
600
2,600 2,400 2,200
400
2,000 300
1,800
Inventory
Sales
500
1,600
200
1,400
100
1,200
0
1,000
Total Sold
Inventory
Alabama New Single Family Building Permits Issued 1,000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300
Year-Over-Year Change for Building Permits Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% -10.0% -20.0% Alabama
©ACRE 2015
U.S.
ACRE Corporate Cabinet acre.culverhouse.ua.edu
Apr
May
June
July
Aug