Ananda Development Outperform (17E TP Bt5.50)
Company Update
Close Bt5.00
Property Development April 4, 2017
Earnings upgrade/Earnings downgrade/Overview unchanged
1Q17E net profit to be the lowest point of the year Price Performance (%)
Source: SET Smart
FY17
FY18
Consensus EPS (Bt)
0.575
0.683
KT ZMICO vs. consensus Share data
‐4.3%
‐13.6%
Reuters / Bloomberg
ANAN.BK/ANAN TB
Paid‐up Shares (m)
3,333.00
Par (Bt)
0.10
Market cap (Bt bn / US$ m) Foreign limit / actual (%)
17.00/485.00 49.00/8.96
52 week High / Low (Bt)
5.65/3.28
Avg. daily T/O (shares 000)
20,279.00
NVDR (%) Estimated free float (%)
4.08 44.52
Beta
1.50
URL
www.ananda.co.th
CGR
Anti‐corruption
Level 2 (Declared)
Worarat Powpaka Analyst, no. 17992
[email protected] 66 (0) 2624‐6248
Maintain Outperform We maintain an Outperform rating and retain ANAN’s 2017E TP at Bt5.5 as our 2017 EPS is maintained. We expect 2017E earnings to be driven by potential realization of significant contributions from its condos and joint venture condos, which will start to generate more positive shared income from 2Q17E. Expect 1Q17E presales to be soft on low value of new launches ANAN targets 1Q17 presales at Bt5bn (+4.8% YoY, ‐27.5% QoQ), but we estimate that its 1Q17E presales may be below its target by around 25%. This should be due to ANAN launching just two condo projects worth only Bt1.88bn under the Unio brand in Mar‐17. The projects had an average take‐ up rate of around 10%‐20% as they are in the low‐end segment, with buyers in this segment likely to purchase when projects are ready to move in. Meanwhile, the low‐rise project launched in March, namely, Artale Phatthanakan – Thonglor (Bt1.6bn, 49 units), had a take‐up rate of 10%. Hence, the majority of its presales were from existing condo projects. ANAN is now considering the launch of more condo projects with good locations in 2Q17E to boost its presales. 1Q17E net profit to be the lowest point of the year We expect ANAN’s 1Q17E net profit to decrease YoY and QoQ and also to be the lowest point of the year due to i) lower transfers YoY and QoQ as there were no new completed condos to be transferred in 1Q17E and ii) the expectation that the contribution from JVs will turn to a loss again because the first JV, Q Chula Samyarn, has only 12% of the project value of Bt6.9bn left to be transferred in 1Q17E. Hence, its shared gain will not cover the shared loss from other JVs, which are under development. Maintain 2017E net profit Although 1Q17E net profit will be the lowest point of the year and not exciting, we maintain our view that 2017E net profit will rise 32.3% as ANAN and the JV company have nine newly‐completed condos (Bt25bn, 67% sold) to be transferred from 2Q17‐4Q17E. Financials and Valuation FY Ended 31 Dec Revenues (Btmn) Net profit (Btmn) EPS (Bt) EPS growth (%) Core EPS (Bt) Core EPS growth (%) Dividend (Bt) BV (Bt) FY Ended 31 Dec PER (x) Normalized PER (x) EV/EBITDA (x) PBV (x) Dividend yield (%) ROE (%) Net gearing (%)
2014 10,328 1,301 0.39 60.3 0.36 46.8 0.10 2.07
2015 10,752 1,207 0.36 (7.9) 0.36 0.6 0.10 2.62
2016 11,730 1,501 0.42 15.6 0.42 15.6 0.13 3.23
2017E 13,908 2,037 0.55 32.3 0.55 32.3 0.15 3.94
2018E 11,551 2,181 0.59 7.9 0.59 7.9 0.16 4.36
2014 12.8 14.0 10.7 2.4 2.0 20.3 74.8
2015 13.9 13.9 10.0 1.9 2.0 15.4 70.6
2016 12.0 12.0 12.7 1.5 2.5 15.4 77.0
2017E 9.1 9.1 10.4 1.3 3.1 17.1 57.0
2018E 8.4 8.4 16.8 1.1 3.3 15.8 62.4
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 1 of 3
FINANCIAL TABLE PROFIT & LOSS (Btmn) Revenues Cost of sales and service Gross profit SG&A EBITDA Depreciation & amortization EBIT Interest expense Other income / exp. EBT Corporate tax Forex gain (loss) Extra Items Gain (loss) from affiliates Net profit Reported EPS Fully diluted EPS Core net profit Core EPS Dividend (Bt) BALANCE SHEET (Btmn) Cash and equivalents Accounts receivable Inventories PP&E‐net Other assets Total assets ST debt & current portion Long‐term debt Total liabilities Paid‐up shares Shareholder equity Total liab. & shareholder equity CASH FLOW (Btmn) Net income Forex and other extraordinary adjustments Depreciation & amortization Change in working capital Cash flow from operations Capex (Invest)/Divest Others Cash flow from investing Debt financing (repayment) Equity financing Dividend payment Others Cash flow from financing Net change in cash Free cash flow FCF per share (Bt) PROFITABILITY Revenue growth (%) EBITDA growth (%) EPS growth (%) Gross margin (%) EBITDA margin (%) Operating margin (%) Net margin (%) Core profit margin (%) Effective tax rate (%)
2014 10,328 (6,402) 3,927 (2,059) 2,037 62 1,974 (227) 114 1,596 (294) 0 110 (293) 1,301 0.39 0.39 1,192 0.36 0.10
2015 10,752 (6,596) 4,157 (2,152) 2,273 70 2,203 (254) 199 1,547 (341) 0 0 (477) 1,207 0.36 0.36 1,207 0.36 0.10
2016 11,730 (7,687) 4,043 (2,516) 1,964 95 1,870 (335) 342 1,808 (306) 0 0 115 1,501 0.42 0.42 1,501 0.42 0.13
2017E 13,908 (9,150) 4,759 (2,774) 2,316 104 2,212 (296) 228 2,429 (393) 0 0 363 2,037 0.55 0.55 2,037 0.55 0.15
2018E 11,551 (7,521) 4,030 (2,789) 1,529 113 1,416 (307) 175 2,432 (252) 0 0 1,173 2,181 0.59 0.59 2,181 0.59 0.16
2014 2,477 28 10 664 11,730 17,088 1,012 6,636 10,175 333 6,913 17,088
2015 2,573 142 7 778 13,420 20,471 2,712 6,023 11,743 333 8,727 20,471
2016 2,683 600 4 1,170 15,459 25,366 6,014 4,951 14,612 333 10,754 25,366
2017E 1,592 417 8 1,232 13,627 26,368 2,646 6,433 13,243 333 13,126 26,368
2018E 1,117 347 8 1,276 16,711 28,299 1,210 8,975 13,770 333 14,529 28,299
2014 1,301 6,889 62 (9,691) (1,439) (1,080) (573) (1,652) 3,880 0 (267) (354) 3,260 168 (2,968) (0.89)
2015 1,207 7,317 70 (7,442) 1,152 (2,449) 252 (2,197) 1,993 (18) (333) (500) 1,142 96 (1,947) (0.58)
2016 1,501 7,530 95 (7,052) 2,074 (2,453) (2,193) (4,646) 3,208 (133) (360) (534) 2,181 (391) (82) (0.02)
2017E 2,037 9,307 104 1,663 13,110 (2,508) 1,030 (1,478) 911 0 (462) (12,673) (12,223) (591) 10,274 3.08
2018E 2,181 7,728 113 (1,318) 8,704 (1,913) 2,702 789 2,433 0 (522) (11,880) (9,968) (475) 6,440 1.93
2014 12.6 46.4 60.3 38.0 19.7 19.1 12.6 11.5 18.5
2015 4.1 11.6 (7.9) 38.7 21.1 20.5 11.2 11.2 22.0
2016 9.1 (13.6) 15.6 34.5 16.7 15.9 12.8 12.8 16.9
2017E 18.6 17.9 32.3 34.2 16.7 15.9 14.6 14.6 19.0
2018E (16.9) (34.0) 7.9 34.9 13.2 12.3 18.9 18.9 20.0
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 2 of 3
Note: KT ZMICO has two major shareholders, Krungthai Bank PLC (KTB) and Seamico Securities PLC (ZMICO). Therefore, prior to making investments in the securities of KTB and ZMICO, investors should consider the risk factors carefully. An executive of KT ZMICO Securities is also a board member of BCP, BTC, CI, CPI, KBS, MAJOR, MK, PACE, PSL, SVH, VNG, ZMICO, SAWAD, TFG. A management member of KT ZMICO Securities is also a board member of BTC and NFC. KT ZMICO is a financial advisor for U, LOXLEY, ZMICO, MAKRO, CPALL, SAFARI, M‐CHAI, POMPUI, TFD, CI. KT ZMICO is a co‐underwriter of the TPIPP.
Corporate Governance Report (CGR) Source: Sec, Thai Institute of Directors Association (IOD) Excellent (scores: 90 ‐ 100) Very Good (scores: 80 – 89) Good (scores: 70 – 79)
Satisfactory (scores: 60 – 69) Pass (scores: 50 – 59) No Logo N/A (scores: below 50)
Anti‐corruption Progress Indicator Source: Sec, Thailand's Private Sector Collective Action Coalition Against Corruption programme (Thai CAC)
Level 1 (Committed) : Organization’s statement or board's resolution to work against corruption and to be in compliance with all relevant laws. Level 2 (Declared) : Public declaration statement to participate in Thailand's private sector Collective Action Coalition Against Corruption (CAC) or equivalent initiatives Level 3 (Established) : Public out preventive measures, risk assessment, communication and training for all employees, including consistent monitoring and review processes Level 4 (Certified) : Audit engagement by audit committee or auditors approved by the office of SEC, and receiving certification or assurance by independent external assurance providers (CAC etc.) Level 5 (Extended) : Extension of the anti‐corruption policy to business partners in the supply chain, and disclosure of any current investigations, prosecutions or closed cases Insufficient or not clearly defined policy Data not available / no policy
DISCLAIMER This document is produced using open sources believed to be reliable. However, their accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. The statements and opinions herein were formed after due and careful consideration for use as information for the purposes of investment. The opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. This document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. The use of any information contained in this document shall be at the sole discretion and risk of the user.
KT ZMICO RESEARCH – RECOMMENDATION DEFINITIONS STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS
SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS
BUY: Expecting positive total returns of 15% or more OVERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's over the next 12 months coverage universe, is expected to outperform the relevant OUTPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% primary market index by at least 10% over the next 12 months. to +15%; returns expected to exceed market returns NEUTRAL: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage over a six‐month period due to specific catalysts universe, is expected to perform in line with the relevant UNDERPERFORM: Expecting total returns between primary market index over the next 12 months. ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to be below market UNDERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's returns over a six‐month period due to specific coverage universe, is expected to underperform the relevant catalysts primary market index by 10% over the next 12 months. SELL: Expecting negative total returns of 10% or more over the next 12 months
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 3 of 3
KT ZMICO Securities Company Limited Head Office
WWW.KTZMICO.COM
8th, 15th‐17th,19th, 21st Floor, Liberty Square Bldg., 287 Silom Road, Bangrak, Bangkok, Thailand 10500 Telephone: (66‐2) 695‐5000 Fax: (66‐2) 695‐5173 KT ZMICO Connect 662 695 5555
Central World Branch
Amarin Branch
22nd Floor, Amarin Building, 496‐502 Ploenchit Road, Lumpini, Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330 Telephone: (66‐2) 018‐6200 Fax: (66‐2) 018‐6298, (66‐2) 018‐6299
8th Floor, Ton Son Tower, 900 Ploenchit Road, Lumpini, Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330 Telephone: (66‐2) 626‐6000 Fax: (66‐2) 626‐6111
Phaholyothin Branch
Sindhorn Branch
Viphavadee Branch
2nd Floor, Sindhorn Tower 1, 130‐132 Wireless Road, Lumpini, Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330 Telephone: (66‐2) 627‐3550 Fax: (66‐2) 627‐3582, 627‐3600
G Floor, Lao Peng Nguan 1 Bldg., 333 Soi Cheypuand, Viphavadee‐Rangsit Road, Ladyao, Jatujak, Bangkok 10900 Telephone: (66‐2) 013‐8600 Fax: (66‐2) 618‐8569
BangKhae Branch
Chiang Mai Branch
Pak Chong Branch
999/9 The Offices at Central World, 16th Fl., Rama 1 Rd, Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330 Telephone: (66‐2) 264‐5888 Fax: (66‐2) 264 5899
1291/1, Shinnawatra Tower II, 3rd Floor, Phaholyothin Road, Phayathai, Bangkok 10400 Telephone: (66‐2) 686‐1500 Fax: (66‐2) 686‐1666
Ploenchit Branch
518 The Mall Group Building Bangkhae Branch, 6th Floor, Petchkasem Road, North Bangkhae, Bangkhae, Bangkok 10160 Telephone: (66‐2) 454‐9979 Fax: (66‐2) 454‐9970
422/49 Changklan Road, Changklan Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang, Chiang Mai 50100 Telephone: (053) 270‐072 Fax: (053) 272‐618
173 175, Mittapap Road, Nong Sarai, Pak Chong, Nakhon Ratchasima 30130 Telephone: (044) 279‐511 Fax: (044) 279‐574
Korat Branch
Khon Kaen Branch
Chonburi Branch
624/9 Changphuek Road, T.Naimaung, A.Maung, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000 Telephone: (044) 247222 Fax: (044) 247171
5th Floor, Charoen Thani Princess Hotel, 260 Srichan Road, T. Naimuang, A. Muang, Khon Kaen 40000 Telephone: (043) 389‐171‐193 Fax: (043) 389‐209
4th Floor, Forum Plaza Bldg., 870/52 Sukhumvit Road, T. Bangplasoy, A. Muang, Cholburi 20000 Telephone: (038) 287‐635 Fax: (038) 287‐637
Pattaya Branch
Chachoengsao Branch
Hat Yai Branch
Easy Point 2, 392/65 Moo.9, T.Nong Prue, A. Bang Lamung, Chonburi 20260 Telephone: (038) 420‐965 Fax: (038) 420‐968
108/34‐36 Mahajakkrapad Road, T.Namuang, A.Muang, Chachoengsao 24000 Telephone: (038) 813‐088 Fax: (038) 813‐099
200/301, 200/303 JULDIS HATYAI PLAZA Floor 3 , Niphat‐Uthit 3 Rd, Hatyai Songkhla 90110 Telephone: (074) 355530‐3 Fax: (074) 355534
Phuket Branch
22/61‐63, Luang Por Wat Chalong Road, Talat Yai, Mueang Phuket, Phuket 83000 Telephone: (076) 222‐811, (076) 222‐683 Fax: (076) 222‐861
Phitsanulok Branch
227/171 Borom Trilokkanat Road, Muang, Phitsanulok 65000 Telephone: 055‐219‐255 to 8 Fax: 055‐219‐259
Nakhon Pathom
Cyber Branch Ayutthaya
Cyber Branch @ North Nana
Cyber Branch Chiangrai
KrungThai Bank, Rojana Branch 253 Moo 5, Rojana Road, Phai Ling, Phra Nakhon Si Ayutthaya, Phra Nakhonsi Ayutthaya, 13000 Telephone: 035‐242‐477 Fax: 035‐242‐476
Krung Thai Bank PCL, 2 Floor, North Nana Branch 35 Sukhumvit Rd., Klong Toey Nua Subdistrict , Wattana District , Bangkok 10110 Telephone: 083‐490‐2871
River Hotel (Building 3rd),1156 Petchakasem Road, Sanamchan Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang , Nakhon Pathom Province 73000 Telephone: (034) 271300 Fax: (034) 271300 #100
KrungThai Bank, Hayaek Phokhun Mengrai Branch 116/19 Moo 19, Highway 110 Road, Rop Wiang, Mueang Chiang Rai, Chiang Rai, 57000 Telephone: 053‐715‐067 Fax: 053‐715‐068